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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A systematic analysis and data mining of opioid-related adverse events submitted to the FAERS database

The opioid epidemic has become a serious national crisis in the United States. An indepth systematic analysis of opioid-related adverse events (AEs) can clarify the risks presented by opioid exposure, as well as the individual risk profiles of specific opioid drugs and the potential relationships among the opioids. In this study, 92 opioids were identified from the list of all Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved drugs, annotated by RxNorm and were classified into 13 opioid groups: buprenorphine, codeine, dihydrocodeine, fentanyl, hydrocodone, hydromorphone, meperidine, methadone, morphine, oxycodone, oxymorphone, tapentadol, and tramadol. A total of 14,970,399 AE reports were retrieved and downloaded from the FDA Adverse Events Reporting System (FAERS) from 2004, Quarter 1 to 2020, Quarter 3. After data processing, Empirical Bayes Geometric Mean (EBGM) was then applied which identified 3317 pairs of potential risk signals within the 13 opioid groups. Based on these potential safety signals, a comparative analysis was pursued to provide a global overview of opioid-related AEs for all 13 groups of FDA-approved prescription opioids. The top 10 most reported AEs for each opioid class were then presented. Both network analysis and hierarchical clustering analysis were conducted to further explore the relationship between opioids. Results from the network analysis revealed a close association among fentanyl, oxycodone, hydrocodone, and hydromorphone, which shared more than 22 AEs. In addition, much less commonly reported AEs were shared among dihydrocodeine, meperidine, oxymorphone, and tapentadol. On the contrary, the hierarchical clustering analysis further categorized the 13 opioid classes into two groups by comparing the full profiles of presence/absence of AEs. The results of network analysis and hierarchical clustering analysis were not only consistent and cross-validated each other but also provided a better and deeper understanding of the associations and relationships between the 13 opioid groups with respect to their adverse effect profiles.

Research & Experimental Medicine↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing fluvial flood mitigation strategies: A multi-objective approach for cost-effective and socially-aware infrastructure feasibility analysis

Effective levee planning must balance capital cost, risk reduction, and community priorities. These objectives are rarely optimized together. This study presents a feasibility phase, simulationin-the-loop framework that couples terrain-based flood modeling with a socially aware multiobjective optimizer. Flood risk is measured as Expected Annual Exposed Population (EAEP), obtained by integrating exposure over Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) nodes, mirroring the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Flood Damage Reduction Analysis (HEC-FDA) expected-annual formulation but with people rather than dollars. Exposure per scenario is computed by overlaying binary inundation masks with a population surface at the tract level. Distributional fairness is encoded through a Group Benefit Share (GBS) constraint that requires high-SVI tracts to receive at least a baseline share of annualized benefits. Capital cost is represented by a height-dependent unit-cost model suitable for screening. This study addresses the two-objective problem, minimize cost and expected annual exposure subject to the GBS constraint, using Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) and leveraging Pareto front for feasibility phase decision making. Implemented with terrain-based flood modeling, GeoFlood, for rapid scenario evaluation, the framework is demonstrated in Southeast Texas. The results reveal clear trade-offs among cost, risk, and social benefits and identify non-dominated levee height configurations that satisfy the benefit-share floor. The contributions are a scalable decision support method that operationalizes expected annual population-based risk, embeds enforceable benefit-sharing guarantees, and uses lightweight simulation to explore large design spaces before higher fidelity design stages.

Flood mitigation↗
NASA NTRS2016

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account risks attributable to manufacturing, assembly, and process controls. These sources often dominate component level reliability or risk of failure probability. While consequences of failure is often understood in assessing risk, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence will likely underestimate the risk. Managers and decision makers often use the probability of occurrence in determining whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. Due to the absence of system level test and operational data inherent in aerospace applications, the actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be appropriately characterized for decision making purposes. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Hatfield, Glen S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

The research challenges in security and safeguards for nuclear fission batteries

This paper discusses the nuclear security and safeguards research challenges presented by the development and deployment of nuclear fission batteries. These are defined as easily transportable and deployable nuclear systems which are designed to operate either unattended or autonomously. We start by defining the current landscape of domestic and international safeguards and security and discuss how it can be affected by the introduction these new nuclear systems. We then specifically discuss the technology gaps and technologies to be developed to facilitate their practical deployment. We find that, as expected, we can leverage conclusions from existing security and safeguards studies for small modular rectors and develop bespoke target set analyses to inform security postures based on probabilistic risk assessment. We find also that specific fission battery security economic analysis tools are needed and security by design must be applied early. However, the most important finding is that these new systems will require a new comprehensive set of cyber tools covering transportation, installation, operation, maintenance security of the fission battery systems. Altogether, we find that the development of the necessary security and safeguards requirements at the design phase of such a technology will be of great benefit in the smooth deployment of this modern nuclear energy system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Techno-Economic Analysis of decentralized preprocessing systems for fast pyrolysis biorefineries with blended feedstocks in the southeastern United States

This study evaluated the economic feasibility of fast pyrolysis biorefineries fed with blended pine residues and switchgrass in the Southeastern U.S. with different supply chain design. Previous techno-economic analyses (TEA) have focused on either blended biomass or decentralized preprocessing without investigating the impacts of varied process parameters, technology options, and real-world biomass distribution. This study fills the literature gap by modeling scenarios for different biomass blending ratios, biorefinery and preprocessing site (so-called depot) capacities, and alternative preprocessing technologies. High-resolution, real-world geospatial data were analyzed using Geographic Information Systems to facilitate supply chain design and TEA. For a decentralized system, the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of biofuel was 3.92–4.33 per gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE), while the MFSP for the centralized biorefinery at the same capacities ranged between 3.75–4.02/GGE. Implementing a high moisture pelleting process depot rather than a conventional pelleting process lowered the MFSP by 0.03–0.17/GGE. Scenario analysis indicated decreased MFSP with increasing biorefinery capacities but not necessarily with increasing depot size. Medium-size depots (500 OMDT/day) achieved the lowest MFSP. Here, this analysis identified the optimal blending ratios for two preprocessing technologies at varied depot sizes. Counterintuitively, increasing the proportion of higher cost switchgrass reduced the MFSP for large biorefineries (>5000 ODMT/day), but increased the MFSP for small biorefineries (1000–2500 ODMT/day). Although the decentralized systems have a higher MFSP based on current analysis, it has other potential benefits such as mitigated supply chain risks and improved feedstock quality that are difficult to be quantified in this TEA.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Accident Precursor Analysis Process Tailored for NASA Space Systems

Accident Precursor Analysis (APA) serves as the bridge between existing risk modeling activities, which are often based on historical or generic failure statistics, and system anomalies, which provide crucial information about the failure mechanisms that are actually operative in the system and which may differ in frequency or type from those in the various models. These discrepancies between the models (perceived risk) and the system (actual risk) provide the leading indication of an underappreciated risk. This paper presents an APA process developed specifically for NASA Earth-to-Orbit space systems. The purpose of the process is to identify and characterize potential sources of system risk as evidenced by anomalous events which, although not necessarily presenting an immediate safety impact, may indicate that an unknown or insufficiently understood risk-significant condition exists in the system. Such anomalous events are considered accident precursors because they signal the potential for severe consequences that may occur in the future, due to causes that are discernible from their occurrence today. Their early identification allows them to be integrated into the overall system risk model used to intbrm decisions relating to safety.

Groen, Frank↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evidence Report: Risk of Inadequate Human-Computer Interaction

Human-computer interaction (HCI) encompasses all the methods by which humans and computer-based systems communicate, share information, and accomplish tasks. When HCI is poorly designed, crews have difficulty entering, navigating, accessing, and understanding information. HCI has rarely been studied in an operational spaceflight context, and detailed performance data that would support evaluation of HCI have not been collected; thus, we draw much of our evidence from post-spaceflight crew comments, and from other safety-critical domains like ground-based power plants, and aviation. Additionally, there is a concern that any potential or real issues to date may have been masked by the fact that crews have near constant access to ground controllers, who monitor for errors, correct mistakes, and provide additional information needed to complete tasks. We do not know what types of HCI issues might arise without this "safety net". Exploration missions will test this concern, as crews may be operating autonomously due to communication delays and blackouts. Crew survival will be heavily dependent on available electronic information for just-in-time training, procedure execution, and vehicle or system maintenance; hence, the criticality of the Risk of Inadequate HCI. Future work must focus on identifying the most important contributing risk factors, evaluating their contribution to the overall risk, and developing appropriate mitigations. The Risk of Inadequate HCI includes eight core contributing factors based on the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS): (1) Requirements, policies, and design processes, (2) Information resources and support, (3) Allocation of attention, (4) Cognitive overload, (5) Environmentally induced perceptual changes, (6) Misperception and misinterpretation of displayed information, (7) Spatial disorientation, and (8) Displays and controls.

Kritina Holden↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting the Likelihood of Human-Elephant Conflict and Assessing Patterns in Elephant Movements Over Varying Habitat Conditions in the Kavango-Zambezi Area

In the Kavango-Zambezi area of southern Africa, three million people live within areas frequently traveled by free-ranging elephants. As the region continues to develop rapidly, urban and agricultural settlements further encroach upon the land that these elephants use. As elephants come into more frequent contact with urban and agricultural areas, human populations face financial loss through crop damage and the potential for injury from direct conflict with elephants. Elephant populations are also at risk of injuries from conflict as well as illness related to the consumption of waste. In order to implement human-elephant conflict mitigation strategies, local conservation groups need to be informed on best practices for coexistence. This project aided The Ecoexist Project and Connected Conservation in understanding the ecological factors that drive elephant movement into human settlements and provided Earth observation data to support conflict management in the future. The team used Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) data to create land use land cover maps and calculate vegetation indices, and used TerraClimate data to analyze drought conditions. These classified maps allowed us to display a time series of human settlement from 1990 to the present and were made explorable alongside other environmental variables in an updated Google Earth Engine (GEE) tool. This project also provided heat maps that show the risk of human-elephant conflict based on historical data of HEC locations. This analysis will provide support for conservation experts in determining best practices for future mitigation and prevention of human-elephant conflict.

Ariel Calle↗
NASA NTRS2000

An Integrated Low-Speed Performance and Noise Prediction Methodology for Subsonic Aircraft

An integrated methodology has been assembled to compute the engine performance, takeoff and landing trajectories, and community noise levels for a subsonic commercial aircraft. Where feasible, physics-based noise analysis methods have been used to make the results more applicable to newer, revolutionary designs and to allow for a more direct evaluation of new technologies. The methodology is intended to be used with approximation methods and risk analysis techniques to allow for the analysis of a greater number of variable combinations while retaining the advantages of physics-based analysis. Details of the methodology are described and limited results are presented for a representative subsonic commercial aircraft.

Olson, E. D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physical Security Timeline Analysis in Support of Advanced Reactor Demonstration and Deployment

This report presents the regulatory requirements and directions on the physical security of advanced nuclear reactors in USA. Presently, a rule is being proposed that allows for a performance-based analysis. In determining the physical security requirements for an advanced reactor, new tools may be desired to conduct a performance-based analysis. These tools should incorporate dynamic analysis methods to provide as much realism as possible. In comparison, the security requirements for existing light water reactors (LWRs) are much more prescriptive and the analysis conducted to establish the required physical security strategies were more easily performed with static analysis. In order to achieve the cost goals that advanced reactors require for adoption; the nuclear security force required should not be excessive. Dynamic physical security analysis methods and tools have been developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. This report details how the dynamic risk analysis tools developed in the LWRS program using the dynamic risk modelling tool, EMRALD, may be adapted for use in analyzing the physical security designs for advanced reactors accounting for variable performance-based requirements. This report provides an example analysis of a hypothetical SFR using publicly available information and generic assumptions to demonstrate the methods and potential presentation and analysis of the results. No actual plant information is used in this example analysis. Future work in this area will create additional models that can be adapted for any advanced reactor concept and use various security features to create a physical security system that provides adequate protection from radiological theft and sabotage.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2016

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Hatfield, Glen S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Quantum Nature and Mass of the Neutrino. FY20 Annual Laboratory Continuation Progress Report

Over the last 100 years we have learned a much about the neutrino, but there remain interesting questions about this weakly interacting particle. In particular, at LLNL we are developing experiments to measure the mass and the quantum nature of the neutrino. The 2015 long range plan recommended tonne-scale neutrinoless double beta decay experiments as the top new project priority and this experiment will target the quantum nature of the neutrino. The LLNL team is motivated and focused on developing the best technology for this experiment which is a liquid xenon time project chamber called nEXO. On a longer time scale, LLNL is also developing technology to measure the neutrino mass with tritium decay experiments. Work on nEXO at LLNL started in 2015 with an LDRD and program development funds to develop the nEXO concept, publish sensitivity predictions, explore alternatives and risks, and to build a credible project team and this effort is on going. In addition, we received research funding from DOE-SC NP and LLNL manages pre-conceptual R&D for the nEXO collaboration a portion of which is executed at LLNL. The Project 8 effort is solely funded by LLNL LDRD, and ends this year. A second LDRD effort is focused on repurposing cyclotron radiation emission spectroscopy for eV-scale X-ray detection. This second effort, while separated from Project 8, still has scientific and technical commonalities with Project 8. The funding for this X-ray detection effort will continue for one more year. LLNL has a long history of building large projects, science projects and time projection chambers, but nEXO is in fact the first project of this scale that LLNL is prepared to lead for DOE-SC NP.We have the tools, skills, people and motivation to make nEXO a reality. The current program development dollars are used to prepare the nEXO concept for down select and CD1. These internal LLNL dollars pay for a number of things including project staff to organize the nEXO collaboration for the various reviews that lie ahead, to develop the draft plans and structure to manage the project as well as setting up an external advisory committee. The current LDRD is exploring alternatives that effect the risk profile as well as possible performance improvements. The DOE-SC NP base funding is targeted at simulation and analysis of the nEXO concept in preparation for the down select and refinement of the understanding of the detector as well as scientific effort on the large xenon test stand (LXTS) that will burn down one of the largest risks to the nEXO project. Lastly, LLNL is leading the pre-conceptual R&D effort and managing the funds for the nEXO collaboration. The results of this effort are reported elsewhere, but the scope of this executed at LLNL will be reported here and is primarily the engineering and construction of the LXTS experiment. The primary technical contribution of LLNL to the Project 8 concept is the formation and study of atomic tritium. Atomic tritium is necessary for Project 8 to reach the ultimate sensitivity. LLNL has considerable experience with tritium and is well suited for this crucial work. Although the focus of this work is strictly fundamental science, there has already been one significant spinoff to develop a new means to measure radio xenon in the air

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

De-Risking Exploration for Geothermal Plays in Magmatic Environments Through Open-Source Tools: An Open-Source Python Framework for 2D and 3D Play Fairway Analysis

The De-Risking Exploration for Geothermal Plays in Magmatic Environments (DEEPEN) project seeks to accelerate superhot geothermal development by reducing exploration risk through advanced open-source modeling tools. This work presents a novel Python-based framework, geoPFA, for conducting 2D and 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) tailored to superhot geothermal systems. Building on previous methodologies, the framework integrates thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical simulation outputs from TReactMech, resulting in improved representation of subsurface properties that are critical to superhot resource producibility. The workflow has been applied to the Nesjavellir field in Iceland, a candidate site for the third Iceland Deep Drilling Project's superhot production scenarios. This application demonstrates the value of modular, transparent, and extensible workflows for integrating geological, geophysical, and simulation-derived datasets in high-enthalpy environments. Preliminary results indicate favorable zones consistent with known hydrothermal activity and suggest possible upflow from the Hengill volcanic system. The geoPFA library is publicly available, offering a scalable and reproducible approach to geothermal exploration across varied geological contexts.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2016

Trajectory Design Enhancements to Mitigate Risk for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, which will be reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several constraints on the science orbit and on the phasing loops. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V (DV) and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and optimal nominal trajectories; to check constraint satisfaction; and finally to model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

satellite↗
NASA NTRS2011

Hazards Induced by Breach of Liquid Rocket Fuel Tanks: Conditions and Risks of Cryogenic Liquid Hydrogen-Oxygen Mixture Explosions

We analyze the data of purposeful rupture experiments with LOx and LH2 tanks, the Hydrogen-Oxygen Vertical Impact (HOVI) tests that were performed to clarify the ignition mechanisms, the explosive power of cryogenic H2/Ox mixtures under different conditions, and to elucidate the puzzling source of the initial formation of flames near the intertank section during the Challenger disaster. We carry out a physics-based analysis of general explosions scenarios for cryogenic gaseous H2/Ox mixtures and determine their realizability conditions, using the well-established simplified models from the detonation and deflagration theory. We study the features of aerosol H2/Ox mixture combustion and show, in particular, that aerosols intensify the deflagration flames and can induce detonation for any ignition mechanism. We propose a cavitation-induced mechanism of self-ignition of cryogenic H2/Ox mixtures that may be realized when gaseous H2 and Ox flows are mixed with a liquid Ox turbulent stream, as occurred in all HOVI tests. We present an overview of the HOVI tests to make conclusion on the risk of strong explosions in possible liquid rocket incidents and provide a semi-quantitative interpretation of the HOVI data based on aerosol combustion. We uncover the most dangerous situations and discuss the foreseeable risks which can arise in space missions and lead to tragic outcomes. Our analysis relates to only unconfined mixtures that are likely to arise as a result of liquid propellant space vehicle incidents.

Osipov, Viatcheslav↗
NASA NTRS1987

Program risk analysis handbook

NASA regulations specify that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from extremely simple to complex network-based simulation, are described in this handbook in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique. All program risk assessment techniques are shown to be based on elicitation and encoding of subjective probability estimates from the various area experts on a program. Techniques to encode the five most common distribution types are given. Then, a total of twelve distinct approaches to risk assessment are given. Steps involved, good and bad points, time involved, and degree of computer support needed are listed. Why risk analysis should be used by all NASA program managers is discussed. Tools available at NASA-MSFC are identified, along with commercially available software. Bibliography (150 entries) and a program risk analysis check-list are provided.

Batson, R. G.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prognostic importance of the preoperative New‐Naples prognostic score for patients with gastric cancer

Abstract Background The wide applicability of the Naples prognostic score (NPS) is still worthy of further study in gastric cancer (GC). This study aimed to construct a New‐NPS based on the differences in immunity and nutrition in patients with upper and lower gastrointestinal tumors to help obtain an individualized prediction of prognosis. Methods This study retrospectively analyzed patients who underwent radical gastrectomy from April 2014 to September 2016. The cutoff values of the preoperative neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte‐to‐monocyte ratio (LMR), serum albumin (Alb), and total cholesterol (TC) were calculated by ROC curve analysis. ROC and t‐ROC were used to evaluate the accuracy of the prognostic markers. The Kaplan–Meier method and log‐rank test were used to analyze the overall survival probability. Univariate and multivariate analyses based on Cox risk regression were used to show the independent predictors. The nomogram was made by R studio. The predictive accuracy of nomogram was assessed using a calibration plot, concordance index (C‐index), and decision curve. Results A total of 737 patients were included in training cohort, 411 patients were included in validation cohort. ROC showed that the New‐NPS was more suitable for predicting the prognosis of GC patients. NPS = 2 indicated a poor prognosis. Multivariate analysis showed that CEA ( P = 0.026), Borrmann type ( P = 0.001), pTNM ( P < 0.001), New‐NPS ( P < 0.001), and nerve infiltration ( P = 0.035) were independent risk factors for prognosis. Conclusion The New‐NPS based on the cutoff values of NLR, LMR, Alb, and TC is not only suitable for predicting prognosis but can also be combined with clinicopathological characteristics to construct a nomogram model for GC patients.

Wang, Hao↗
NASA NTRS1991

Space nuclear power systems; Proceedings of the 8th Symposium, Albuquerque, NM, Jan. 6-10, 1991. Pts. 1-3

The present conference discusses NASA mission planning for space nuclear power, lunar mission design based on nuclear thermal rockets, inertial-electrostatic confinement fusion for space power, nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission, the role of the interface in refractory metal alloy composites, an advanced thermionic reactor systems design code, and space high power nuclear-pumped lasers. Also discussed are exploration mission enhancements with power-beaming, power requirement estimates for a nuclear-powered manned Mars rover, SP-100 reactor design, safety, and testing, materials compatibility issues for fabric composite radiators, application of the enabler to nuclear electric propulsion, orbit-transfer with TOPAZ-type power sources, the thermoelectric properties of alloys, ruthenium silicide as a promising thermoelectric material, and innovative space-saving device for high-temperature piping systems. The second volume of this conference discusses engine concepts for nuclear electric propulsion, nuclear technologies for human exploration of the solar system, dynamic energy conversion, direct nuclear propulsion, thermionic conversion technology, reactor and power system control, thermal management, thermionic research, effects of radiation on electronics, heat-pipe technology, radioisotope power systems, and nuclear fuels for power reactors. The third volume discusses space power electronics, space nuclear fuels for propulsion reactors, power systems concepts, space power electronics systems, the use of artificial intelligence in space, flight qualifications and testing, microgravity two-phase flow, reactor manufacturing and processing, and space and environmental effects.

El-Genk, Mohamed S.↗