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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
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NASA NTRS1991

Equatorial thermospheric wind changes during the solar cycle - Measurements at Arequipa, Peru, from 1983 to 1990

Near-equatorial thermospheric wind velocities at Arequipa, Peru, are determined over about two-thirds of a solar cycle using Fabry-Perot interferometer measurements of Doppler shifts in the nightglow 630-nm emission line. Mean monthly nocturnal variations in the meridional and zonal wind components are calculated from the nightly data to remove short-term (day-to-day) variability as well as any additional changes introduced by the progression of the solar cycle. For most of the years, at the winter solstice, there is a weak (more than 100 m/s) transequatorial flow from the summer to the winter hemisphere in the early and the late night, with essentially zero velocities in between. At the equinoxes, an early-night poleward (southward) flow at solar minimum (1986) is replaced by an equatorward (northward) flow at solar maximum (1989-1990).

Biondi, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Effects of Low Activity Solar Cycle on Orbital Debris Lifetime

Long duration of low solar activity in the last solar minimum has an undesirable consequence of extending the lifetime of orbital debris. The AFRL TacSat-2 satellite decommissioned in 2008 has finally re-entered into the atmosphere on February 5th after more than one year overdue. Concerning its demise we have monitored its orbital decay and monthly forecasted Tacsat-2 re-entry since September 2010 by using the Orbital Element Prediction (OEP) model developed by the AFRL Orbital Drag Environment program. The model combines estimates of future solar activity with neutral density models, drag coefficient models, and an orbit propagator to predict satellite lifetime. We run the OEP model with solar indices forecast by the NASA Marshall Solar Activity Future Estimation model, and neutral density forecast by the MSIS-00 neutral density model. Based on the two line elements in 2010 up to mid September, we estimated at a 50% confidence level TacSat-2's re-entry time to be in early February 2011, which turned out to be in good agreement with Tacsat-2's actual re-entry date. The potential space weather effects of the coming low activity solar cycle on satellite lifetime and orbital debris population are examined. The NASA long-term orbital debris evolutionary model, LEGEND, is used to quantify the effects of solar flux on the orbital debris population in the 200-600 km altitude environment. The results are discussed for developing satellite orbital drag application product.

Cable, Samual B.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Solar cycle evolution of high-speed solar wind streams

Large amplitude high-speed solar wind streams and streams with maximum speeds in excess of 700 km/sec are far more common in years of declining and minimum solar activity than near solar maximum. Further, the broadest solar wind streams observed directly with space probes during the years 1962-1974 occurred near solar minimum in 1974. Changes in the frequency and nature of solar wind stream structures at the orbit of earth appear to be directly related to the long-term evolution of regions of low density in the solar corona.

Bame, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The sun's luminosity over a complete solar cycle

The Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM I) measured the sun's luminosity from early 1980 to late 1989. The first account of the complete ACRIM I data set is presented and evidence is given which confirms that solar luminosity varies with the 11-yr solar cycle. This slow variation closely follows statistical measures of the distribution of magnetic and photospheric features on the solar surface. An exception to this correlation occurred in the form of a remarkable irradiance excess during 1980, at about the time of the sunspot maximum of solar cycle 21. The linkage, over a whole cycle, of luminosity variation to photospheric activity suggests the existence of an unknown physical mechanism other than the thermal diffusion model that explains luminosity deficits due to sunspots. Luminosity models connecting total irradiance to global indicators of solar activity are consistent with the gross features of the variability but fail to account for the 1980 irradiance excess.

Willson, Richard C.↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Triple-Dip La Niña of 2020–22: Updates to the Correlation of ENSO With the Termination of Solar Cycles

The Sun provides the energy required to sustain life on Earth and drive our planet’s atmosphere. However, establishing a solid physical connection between solar and tropospheric variability has posed a considerable challenge across the spectrum of Earth-system science. Over the past few years a new picture to describe solar variability has developed, based on observing, understanding and tracing the progression, interaction and intrinsic variability of the magnetized activity bands that belong to the Sun’s 22-year magnetic activity cycle. A solar cycle’s fiducial clock does not run from the canonical min or max, instead resetting when all old cycle polarity magnetic flux is cancelled at the equator, an event dubbed the “termination” of that solar cycle, or terminator. In a recent paper, we demonstrated with high statistical significance, a correlation between the occurrence of termination of the last five solar cycles and the transition from El Niño to La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, and predicted that there would be a transition to La Niña in mid 2020. La Niña did indeed begin in mid-2020, and endured into 2023 as a rare “triple dip” event, but some of the solar predictions made did not occur until late 2021. This work examines what went right, what went wrong, the correlations between El Niño, La Niña and geomagnetic activity indices, and what might be expected for the general trends of large-scale global climate in the next decade.

Robert J Leamon↗
NASA NTRS1993

F region plasma drifts over Arecibo - Solar cycle, seasonal, and magnetic activity effects

Characteristics of low-latitude F region plasma drifts are determined on the basis of Arecibo incoherent scatter measurements from 1981 to 1990. The measurements show large day-to-day variability even during magnetically quiet periods. The average poleward/perpendicular plasma drifts do not change significantly with season and solar cycle except in the midnight-morning sector. The zonal drifts show clear solar cycle and seasonal effects. The plasma drifts along the magnetic field lines exhibit large altitudinal and seasonal variations, particularly near solar minimum, and are generally anticorrelated with the perpendicular/north drifts. The drift patterns observed by the Arecibo and the middle and upper atmosphere radars have significantly different seasonal dependences. This is explained by electrodynamic effects in the corresponding local and conjugate ionospheres.

Fejer, B. G.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Solar cycle effects on the structure of the electron density profiles in the dayside ionosphere of Venus

Results are presented of observations from the changes in the electron density structure of the dayside ionosphere of Venus that were brought about by changing solar activity. The ionopause height is generally low for values of the solar zenith angle below about 50 deg regardless of the phase in the solar cycle. At solar maximum, and at times of intermediate solar activity, the ionopause height for solar zenith angles greater than about 50 deg is highly variable, ranging from a minimum of about 200 km to a maximum of more than 1000 km. At times of solar minimum the great majority of all ionopause heights for all solar zenith angles are uniformly low, lying between 200 and 300 km. It is argued that the compressed nature of the Venus atmosphere at solar minimum is produced by permeation of the ionosphere by the solar wind magnetic field, which occurs when the solar wind dynamic pressure exceeds the ionospheric plasma pressure.

Kliore, Arvydas J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Ionization frequencies for solar cycle 21 - Revised

Detailed spectra of the extreme ultraviolet solar flux at the earth were provided by instruments on the Atmosphere Explorer satellites. These data have been used for aeronomical purposes in a large number of studies. An important parameter for such studies is the rate of production of various ions through the photoionization process. This parameter, known as an ionization frequency, is the integral over wavelength of the product of the solar flux and the cross section for the ionization of the particular constituent. Thus, the determination of the ionization rate is dependent on a good knowledge of the solar EUV intensities for the solar period in question. Over the past few years the EUV solar spectra that have been developed for use by aeronomers as reference spectra for such photochemical and ionospheric studies have been improved. The results of a redetermination of the most important ionization frequencies using the revised solar fluxes are reported. The impact is found to be more significant at solar maximum, amounting to a reduction of 12-21 percent in the ionization frequencies of the major terrestrial thermospheric constituents for solar-minimum conditions and 21-33 percent for solar-maximum conditions. The corrections are apart from the ongoing debate concerning the absolute intensity of EUV solar-flux measurements for the solar-cycle 21 maximum period.

Torr, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Deep-space radiation exposure analysis for solar cycle XXI (1975-1986)

Ionizing radiation exposures and associated dosimetric quantities are evaluated for the 11-year solar cycle ending in 1986. Solar flare fluences for the 55 largest flares occurring during the cycle are superimposed on the Galactic cosmic ray flux. Published summaries of flare data from the Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP)-7 and IMP-8 satellites are used that include flares whose integrated fluences are greater than 10 to the 7th protons/sq cm for energies in excess of 10 MeV. A standard cosmic ray environment model for ion flux values at solar minimum and maximum is invoked with an assumed sinusoidal variation between the lower and upper limits. The radiation shielding analysis is carried out for equivalent water-shield thicknesses between 2 and 15 g/sq cm. Results are expressed in terms of cumulative incurred dose equivalents for deep-space missions lasting between 3 months and 3 years. It was found that medium-to-large flare contributions are of greatest importance for the shorter term missions, while the Galactic component dominates for the longer duration missions.

Nealy, John E.↗
NASA NTRS2008

On the Response of Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) Stratospheric Oxone and Temperature to the 11-yr Solar Cycle Forcing

Results are presented on responses in 14-yr time series of stratospheric ozone and temperature from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) to a solar cycle (SC-like) variation. The ozone time series are for ten, 20-degree wide, latitude bins from 45S to 45N and for thirteen "half-Umkehr" layers of about 2.5 km thickness and extending from 63 hPa to 0.7 hPa. The temperature time series analyses were restricted to pressure levels in the range of 2 hPa to 0.7 hPa. Multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques were applied to each of the 130 time series of zonally-averaged, sunrise plus sunset ozone points over that latitude/pressure domain. A simple, 11-yr periodic term and a linear trend term were added to the final MLR models after their seasonal and interannual terms had been determined. Where the amplitudes of the 11-yr terms were significant, they were in-phase with those of the more standard proxies for the solar uv-flux. The max minus min response for ozone is of order 2 to 3% from about 2 to 5 hPa and for the latitudes of 45S to 45N. There is also a significant max minus min response of order 1 K for temperature between 15S and 15N and from 2 to 0.7 hPa. The associated linear trends for ozone are near zero in the upper stratosphere. Negative ozone trends of 4 to 6%/decade were found at 10 to 20 hPa across the low to middle latitudes of both hemispheres. It is concluded that the analyzed responses from the HALOE data are of good quality and can be used to evaluate the responses of climate/chemistry models to a solar cycle forcing.

Remsberg, E. E.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Interactions of Dust Grains with Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Cycle Variations of the F-Coronal Brightness

The density of interplanetary dust increases sunward to reach its maximum in the F corona, where its scattered white-light emission dominates that of the electron K corona above about 3 Solar Radius. The dust will interact with both the particles and fields of antisunward propagating coronal mass ejections (CMEs). To understand the effects of the CME/dust interactions we consider the dominant forces, with and without CMEs. acting on the dust in the 3-5 Solar Radius region. Dust grain orbits are then computed to compare the drift rates from 5 to 3 Solar Radius. for periods of minimum and maximum solar activity, where a simple CME model is adopted to distinguish between the two periods. The ion-drag force, even in the quiet solar wind, reduces the drift time by a significant factor from its value estimated with the Poynting-Robertson drag force alone. The ion-drag effects of CMEs result in even shorter drift times of the large (greater than or approx. 3 microns) dust grains. hence faster depletion rates and lower dust-pain densities, at solar maxima. If dominated by thermal emission, the near-infrared brightness will thus display solar cycle variations close to the dust plane of symmetry. While trapping the smallest of the grains, the CME magnetic fields also scatter the grains of intermediate size (0.1-3 microns) in latitude. If light scattering by small grains close to the Sun dominates the optical brightness. the scattering by the CME magnetic fields will result in a solar cycle variation of the optical brightness distribution not exceeding 100% at high latitudes, with a higher isotropy reached at solar maxima. A good degree of latitudinal isotropy is already reached at low solar activity since the magnetic fields of the quiet solar wind so close to the Sun are able to scatter the small (less than or approx. 3 microns) grains up to the polar regions in only a few days or less, producing strong perturbations of their trajectories in less than half their orbital periods. Finally, we consider possible observable consequences of individual CME/dust interactions. We show that the dust grains very likely have no observable effect on the dynamics of CMEs. The effect of an individual CME on the dust grains, however, might serve as a forecasting tool for the directions and amplitudes of the magnetic fields within the CME.

Ragot, B. R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

STEREO Observations of Stream Interaction Regions in 2007-2016:Relationship with Heliospheric Current Sheets, Solar Cycle Variations, and Dual Observations

We have conducted a survey of 575 slow-to-fast stream interaction regions (SIRs) using STEREOA/B data in 2007-2016 (Jian et al., 2019). Among 518 well-defined SIRs, 54% are associated with heliospheric current sheet (HCS) crossings, and 34% are without any HCS crossing. The other 12% of the SIRs often occur in association with magnetic sectors shorter than 3 days. The SIRs with HCS crossings have slightly slower speeds but higher maximum number densities, magnetic field strengths, dynamic pressures, and total pressures than the SIRs without an HCS. The iron charge state is higher throughout the SIRs with an HCS than the SIRs without an HCS, by about 1/3 charge unit. In contrast with the comparable phases of solar cycle 23,slightly more SIRs and higher recurrence rates are observed in the years 2009-2016 of cycle 24,with a lower HCS association rate, possibly attributed to persistent equatorial coronal holes and more pseudostreamers in this recent cycle. The solar wind speed, peak magnetic field and pressures of SIRs are all lower in this cycle, but the weakening is less than for the comparable background solar wind parameters. Before STEREO B lost contact in 2014 October, 151 SIR pairs were observed by the twin spacecraft. Of the dual observations, the maximum speed is the best correlated of the plasma parameters. We have obtained a sample of plasma parameter differences analogous to those that would be observed for a mission at Lagrange point 4 or 5.By studying several cases with large discrepancies between the dual observations, we have also investigated the effects of HCS relative location, tilt of stream interface, and small transients on the SIR properties.

Lan K Jian↗
NASA NTRS1984

An assessment of possible ozone-solar cycle relationship inferred from NIMBUS 4 BUV data

The effects of solar activity on stratospheric ozone were studied between 1970 and 1976 by the NIMBUS 4 backscattered ultraviolet experiment. Results show that, after correcting for instrument sensitivity, globally averaged ozone decreased by 3-4 percent above 2 mbar to less than 1 percent at 10 mbar, as solar activity decreased from solar maximum to solar minimum. This systematic ozone decrease (at all pressure levels) and the seemingly periodic oscillation (generally a 2 year period) seem to be associated with conventional indices of solar activity, which suggests a solar UV-ozone relationship. However, since the ozone depletion, especially at 40 km, is characteristic of atmospheric fluorocarbon injection effects, the solar cycle ozone relationship should be qualified: it may exist if the solar UV flux varies by 15-20 percent in the shorter-wavelength region (less than 200 nm).

Chandra, S.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Solar cycle variation of interplanetary shocks, coronal mass ejections, and stream interactions observed at 0.7 AU

A survey of the Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) magnetometer and plasma data from 1979-1980, shows that the occurrence frequency of interplanetary shocks, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and stream interactions observed at 0.7 AU exhibits a solar cycle variation. As previously found at 1 AU, the observed number of both interplanetary shocks and CMEs peaks during solar maximum (approximately 16 and approximately 27 per year, respectively) and reaches a low during solar minimum (approximately 0 and approximately 7 per year, respectively), in phase with the variation in smoothed sunspot number. The number of stream interactions observed varies in the opposite manner, having a minimum during solar maximum (approximately 15 per year) and a maximum during solar minimum (approximately 34 per year). The percentage of CMEs and stream interactions producing interplanetary shocks also varies during the solar-cycle and exhibits interesting behavior during the declining phase. While the number of CMEs observed during this phase is decreasing, the percentage of CMEs producing interplanetary shocks reaches a maximum. Also, while the number of stream interactions observed is increasing, but has not reached maximum during the declining phase, the percentage of stream interactions producing interplanety shocks is at a maximum.

Lindsay, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Solar Cycle Fine Structure and Surface Rotation from Ca II K-Line Time Series Data

Analysis of three and a half decades of data from the NSO/AFRL/Sac Peak K-line monitoring program yields evidence for four components to the variation: (a) the solar cycle, with considerable fine structure and a quasi-periodicity of 122.4 days; (b) a stochastic process, faster than (a) and largely independent of it, (c) a quasi-periodic signal due to rotational modulation, and of course (d) observational errors (shown to be quite small). Correlation and power spectrum analyses elucidate periodic and aperiodic variation of these chromospheric parameters. Time-frequency analysis is especially useful for extracting information about differential rotation, and in particular elucidates the connection between its behavior and fine structure of the solar cycle on approximately one-year time scales. These results further suggest that similar analyses will be useful at detecting and characterizing differential rotation in stars from stellar light-curves such as those being produced at NASA's Kepler observatory.

Scargle, Jeff↗