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Conic state extrapolation

The Conic State Extrapolation Routine provides the capability to conically extrapolate any spacecraft inertial state vector either backwards or forwards as a function of time or as a function of transfer angle. It is merely the coded form of two versions of the solution of the two-body differential equations of motion of the spacecraft center of mass. Because of its relatively fast computation speed and moderate accuracy, it serves as a preliminary navigation tool and as a method of obtaining quick solutions for targeting and guidance functions. More accurate (but slower) results are provided by the Precision State Extrapolation Routine.

Shepperd, S. W.↗

Ground-Support Algorithms for Simulation, Processing, and Calibration of Barnes Static Earth Sensor Measurements: Applications to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Observatory

New algorithms are described covering the simulation, processing, and calibration of penetration angles of the Barnes static Earth sensor assembly (SESA) as implemented in the Goddard Space Flight Center Flight Dynamics Division ground support system for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Observatory. The new treatment involves a detailed analysis of the measurements by individual quadrants. It is shown that, to a good approximation, individual quadrant misalignments can be treated simply as penetration angle biases. Simple formulas suitable for real-time applications are introduced for computing quadrant-dependent effects. The simulator generates penetration angles by solving a quadratic equation with coefficients uniquely determined by the spacecraft's position and the quadrant's orientation in GeoCentric Inertial (GCI) coordinates. Measurement processing for attitude determination is based on linearized equations obtained by expanding the coefficients of the aforementioned quadratic equation as a Taylor series in both the Earth oblateness coefficient (alpha approx. 1/150) and the angle between the pointing axis and the geodetic nadir vector. A simple formula relating a measured value of the penetration angle to the deviation of the Earth-pointed axis from the geodetic nadir vector is derived. It is shown that even near the very edge of the quadrant's Field Of View (FOV), attitude errors resulting from quadratic effects are a few hundredths of a degree, which is small compared to the attitude determination accuracy requirement (0.18 degree, 3 sigma) of TRMM. Calibration of SESA measurements is complicated by a first-order filtering used in the TRMM onboard algorithm to compute penetration angles from raw voltages. A simple calibration scheme is introduced where these complications are avoided by treating penetration angles as the primary raw measurements, which are adjusted using biases and scale factors. In addition to three misalignment parameters, the calibration state vector contains only two average penetration angle biases (one per each pair of opposite quadrants) since, because of the very narrow sensor FOV (+/- 2.6 degrees), differences between biases of the penetration angles measured by opposite quadrants cannot be distinguished from roll and pitch sensor misalignments. After calibration, the estimated misalignments and average penetration angle biases are converted to the four penetration angle biases and to the yaw misalignment angle. The resultant biases and the estimated scale factors are finally used to update the coefficients necessary for onboard computations of penetration angles from measured voltages.

Natanson, G. A.↗

Machine learning for arbitrary single-qubit rotations on an embedded device

Here, in this study, we present a technique for using machine learning (ML) for single-qubit gate synthesis on field-programmable logic for a superconducting transmon-based quantum computer based on simulated studies. Our approach is multi-stage. We first “bootstrap” a model based on simulation with access to the full state vector for measuring gate fidelity. We next present an algorithm, named adapted randomized benchmarking (ARB), for fine-tuning the gate on hardware based on measurements of the devices. We also present techniques for deploying the model on programmable devices with care to reduce the required resources. While the techniques here are applied to a transmon-based computer, many of them are portable to other architectures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Aircraft Range Optimization Using Singular Perturbations

An approximate analytic solution is developed for the problem of maximizing the range of an aircraft for a fixed end state. The problem is formulated as a singular perturbation and solved by matched inner and outer asymptotic expansions and the minimum principle of Pontryagin. Cruise in the stratosphere, and on transition to and from cruise at constant Mach number are discussed. The state vector includes altitude, flight path angle, and mass. Specific fuel consumption becomes a linear function of power approximating that of the cruise values. Cruise represents the outer solution; altitude and flight path angle are constants, and only mass changes. Transitions between cruise and the specified initial and final conditions correspond to the inner solutions. The mass is constant and altitude and velocity vary. A solution is developed which is valid for cruise but which is not for the initial and final conditions. Transforming of the independent variable near the initial and final conditions result in solutions which are valid for the two inner solutions but not for cruise. The inner solutions can not be obtained without simplifying the state equations. The singular perturbation approach overcomes this difficulty. A quadratic approximation of the state equations is made. The resulting problem is solved analytically, and the two inner solutions are matched to the outer solution.

Oconnor, Joseph Taffe↗

Detailed Analysis of the Asteroid Pair (6070) Rheinland and (54827) 2001 NQ8

The existence of asteroid pairs, two bodies on similar heliocentric orbits, reveals an ongoing process of rotational fission among asteroids. This newly found class of objects has not been studied in detail yet. Here we choose asteroids (6070) Rheinland and (54827) 2001 NQ8, the most suitable pair for an in-depth analysis. First, we use available optical photometry to determine their rotational state and convex shapes. Rotational pole of Rheinland is very near the south ecliptic pole with a latitude uncertainty of about 10°. There are two equivalent solutions for the pole of 2001 NQ8, either (72°, −49°) or (242°, −46°) (ecliptic longitude and latitude). In both cases, the longitude values have about 10° uncertainty and the latitude values have about 15° uncertainty (both 3σ uncertainties). The sidereal rotation period of 2001 NQ8 is 5.877186 ± 0.000002 hr. Second, we construct a precise numerical integrator to determine the past state vectors of the pair’s components, namely their heliocentric positions and velocities, and orientation of their spin vectors. Using this new tool, we investigate the origin of the (6070) Rheinland and (54827) 2001 NQ8 pair. We find a formal age solution of 16.34 ± 0.04 kyr. This includes effects of the most massive objects in the asteroid belt (Ceres, Pallas, and Vesta), but the unaccounted gravitational perturbations from other asteroids may imply that the realistic age uncertainty is slightly larger than its formal value. Analyzing results from our numerical simulation to 250 kya, we argue against a possibility that this pair would allow an older age. Initial spin vectors of the two asteroids, at the moment of their separation, were not collinear, but tilted by 38{sup ∘}±12{sup ∘}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

GPS-Based Reduced Dynamic Orbit Determination Using Accelerometer Data

Currently two gravity field satellite missions, CHAMP and GRACE, are equipped with high sensitivity electrostatic accelerometers, measuring the non-conservative forces acting on the spacecraft in three orthogonal directions. During the gravity field recovery these measurements help to separate gravitational and non-gravitational contributions in the observed orbit perturbations. For precise orbit determination purposes all these missions have a dual-frequency GPS receiver on board. The reduced dynamic technique combines the dense and accurate GPS observations with physical models of the forces acting on the spacecraft, complemented by empirical accelerations, which are stochastic parameters adjusted in the orbit determination process. When the spacecraft carries an accelerometer, these measured accelerations can be used to replace the models of the non-conservative forces, such as air drag and solar radiation pressure. This approach is implemented in a batch least-squares estimator of the GPS High Precision Orbit Determination Software Tools (GHOST), developed at DLR/GSOC and DEOS. It is extensively tested with data of the CHAMP and GRACE satellites. As accelerometer observations typically can be affected by an unknown scale factor and bias in each measurement direction, they require calibration during processing. Therefore the estimated state vector is augmented with six parameters: a scale and bias factor for the three axes. In order to converge efficiently to a good solution, reasonable a priori values for the bias factor are necessary. These are calculated by combining the mean value of the accelerometer observations with the mean value of the non-conservative force models and empirical accelerations, estimated when using these models. When replacing the non-conservative force models with accelerometer observations and still estimating empirical accelerations, a good orbit precision is achieved. 100 days of GRACE B data processing results in a mean orbit fit of a few centimeters with respect to high-quality JPL reference orbits. This shows a slightly better consistency compared to the case when using force models. A purely dynamic orbit, without estimating empirical accelerations thus only adjusting six state parameters and the bias and scale factors, gives an orbit fit for the GRACE B test case below the decimeter level. The in orbit calibrated accelerometer observations can be used to validate the modelled accelerations and estimated empirical accelerations computed with the GHOST tools. In along track direction they show the best resemblance, with a mean correlation coefficient of 93% for the same period. In radial and normal direction the correlation is smaller. During days of high solar activity the benefit of using accelerometer observations is clearly visible. The observations during these days show fluctuations which the modelled and empirical accelerations can not follow.

VanHelleputte, Tom↗

Mission and Navigation Design for the 2009 Mars Science Laboratory Mission

NASA s Mars Science Laboratory mission will launch the next mobile science laboratory to Mars in the fall of 2009 with arrival at Mars occurring in the summer of 2010. A heat shield, parachute, and rocket-powered descent stage, including a sky crane, will be used to land the rover safely on the surface of Mars. The direction of the atmospheric entry vehicle lift vector will be controlled by a hypersonic entry guidance algorithm to compensate for entry trajectory errors and counteract atmospheric and aerodynamic dispersions. The key challenges for mission design are (1) develop a launch/arrival strategy that provides communications coverage during the Entry, Descent, and Landing phase either from an X-band direct-to-Earth link or from a Ultra High Frequency link to the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter for landing latitudes between 30 deg North and 30 deg South, while satisfying mission constraints on Earth departure energy and Mars atmospheric entry speed, and (2) generate Earth-departure targets for the Atlas V-541 launch vehicle for the specified launch/arrival strategy. The launch/arrival strategy employs a 30-day baseline launch period and a 27-day extended launch period with varying arrival dates at Mars. The key challenges for navigation design are (1) deliver the spacecraft to the atmospheric entry interface point (Mars radius of 3522.2 km) with an inertial entry flight path angle error of +/- 0.20 deg (3 sigma), (2) provide knowledge of the entry state vector accurate to +/- 2.8 km (3 sigma) in position and +/- 2.0 m/s (3 sigma) in velocity for initializing the entry guidance algorithm, and (3) ensure a 99% probability of successful delivery at Mars with respect to available cruise stage propellant. Orbit determination is accomplished via ground processing of multiple complimentary radiometric data types: Doppler, range, and Delta-Differential One-way Ranging (a Very Long Baseline Interferometry measurement). The navigation strategy makes use of up to five interplanetary trajectory correction maneuvers to achieve entry targeting requirements. The requirements for cruise propellant usage and atmospheric entry targeting and knowledge are met with ample margins.

Mission design↗

Iterative quantum optimization of spin glass problems with rapidly oscillating transverse fields

In this work, we introduce a new iterative quantum algorithm, called Iterative Symphonic Tunneling for Satisfiability problems (IST-SAT), which solves quantum spin glass optimization problems using high-frequency oscillating transverse fields. IST-SAT operates as a sequence of iterations, in which bitstrings returned from one iteration are used to set spin-dependent phases in oscillating transverse fields in the next iteration. Over several iterations, the novel mechanism of the algorithm steers the system toward the problem ground state. We benchmark IST-SAT on sets of hard MAX-3-XORSAT problem instances with exact state vector simulation, and report polynomial speedups over Trotterized adiabatic quantum computation and the best known semi-greedy classical algorithm. When IST-SAT is seeded with a sufficiently good initial approximation, the algorithm converges to exact solution(s) in a polynomial number of iterations. Our numerical results identify a critical Hamming radius, or quality of initial approximation, where the time-to-solution crosses from exponential to polynomial scaling in problem size. This work proposes IST-SAT a new quantum algorithm, which improves upon solutions obtained from initial classical or quantum optimization algorithms. The steering mechanism we introduce through IST-SAT presents a new path toward achieving quantum advantage in optimization.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Surrogate optimization of variational quantum circuits

Variational quantum eigensolvers are touted as a near-term algorithm capable of impacting many applications. However, the potential has not yet been realized, with few claims of quantum advantage and high resource estimates, especially due to the need for optimization in the presence of noise. Finding algorithms and methods to improve convergence is important to accelerate the capabilities of near-term hardware for VQE or more broad applications of hybrid methods in which optimization is required. To this goal, we look to use modern approaches developed in circuit simulations and stochastic classical optimization, which can be combined to form a surrogate optimization approach to quantum circuits. Using an approximate (classical CPU/GPU) state vector simulator as a surrogate model, we efficiently calculate an approximate Hessian, passed as an input for a quantum processing unit or exact circuit simulator. This method will lend itself well to parallelization across quantum processing units. We demonstrate the capabilities of such an approach with and without sampling noise and a proof-of-principle demonstration on a quantum processing unit utilizing 40 qubits.

Gustafson, Erik J. [RIACS, Mtn. View] (ORCID:00000↗

Cislunar Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit for Human Space Exploration

In order to conduct sustained human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), spacecraft systems are designed to operate in a series of missions of increasing complexity. Regardless of the destination, Moon, Mars, asteroids or beyond, there is a substantial set of common objectives that must be met. Many orbit characterization studies have endeavored to evaluate the potential locations in cislunar space that are favorable for meeting common human exploration objectives in a stepwise approach. Multiple studies, by both NASA and other international space agencies, have indicated that Earth-­‐moon libration point orbits are attractive candidates for staging operations in the proving ground and beyond. In particular, the Near Rectilinear Orbit (NRO) has been demonstrated to meet multi-­‐mission and multi-­‐destination architectural constraints. However, a human mission to a selected NRO presents a variety of new challenges for mission planning. While a growing number of robotic missions have completed successful operations to various specific libration point orbits, human missions have never been conducted to orbits of this class. Human missions have unique challenges that differ significantly from robotic missions, including a lower tolerance for mission risk and additional operational constraints that are associated only with human spacecraft. In addition, neither robotic nor human missions have been operated in the NRO regime specifically, and NROs exhibit dynamical characteristics that can differ significantly as compared to other halo orbits. Finally, multi-­‐body orbits, such as libration point orbits, are identified to exist in a simplified orbit model known as the Circular Restricted Three Body Problem (CRTBP) and must then be re-­‐solved in the full ephemeris model. As a result, the behavior of multi-­‐body orbits cannot be effectively characterized within the classical two-­‐body orbit dynamics framework more familiar to the human spaceflight community. In fact, a given NRO is not identified by a set of Keplerian orbit parameters, and a valid epoch specific state vector must be first obtained from a multi-body dynamical model. In this paper, the significant performance and operational challenges of conducting human missions to the NRO are evaluated. First, a systematic process for generating full ephemeris based ballistic NROs of various families is outlined to demonstrate the relative ease in which a multi-­‐revolution orbit can be found for any epoch and for various orbit geometries. In the Earth-­‐Moon system, NROs, which are halo orbits with close passage over a lunar pole, can exist with respect to libration point 1 (L1) or libration point 2 (L2) and are either from a North or South family orbit class with respect to the ecliptic. Second, the ability to maintain the orbit over the lifetime of a habitat mission by applying a reliable station-keeping strategy is investigated. The NRO, while similar to the quasi-­‐halo orbits that the Artemis mission flew, requires an updated station keeping strategy. This is due to several dynamical differences such as the increased relative stability of the NRO compared to other halo orbits and the close passage over the lunar surface as shown in Figure 1. Multiple station-keeping strategies are being investigated to ensure a human spacecraft remains on a predictable path. As the NRO is not described in simple two-­‐body parameters, analysis must determine the best strategy for targeting a reference NRO as well as how closely a future state should be constrained. In addition, costs will be minimized by determining maneuver directionality based on an identified pattern in the optimal station-keeping solutions or an analytically derived relationship. The candidate station-keeping algorithm must be stable and robust to environmental and vehicle uncertainties as well to navigation estimation and flight control execution errors. To that end, navigation accuracies, the impact on the station-keeping execution errors as well as other vehicle uncertainties need to be assessed. Starting with Orion, current navigation accuracies are evaluated and then navigation requirements are derived assuming a desired station-keeping propellant budget. Third, the performance requirements to and from the NRO are evaluated. Important parameters for developing expected propellant costs include epoch of operation, size and type of NRO, Earth departure and return constraints, as well as abort or early-­‐return capability. Finally, rendezvous and proximity operations are vital aspects of multi-­‐mission human exploration endeavors. The ability to conduct rendezvous and the associated propellant costs are assessed as well as the impacts of various profile assumptions including the location within the NRO the rendezvous is performed. The results of these studies will influence plans for international cooperation on both nearer term proving ground missions and beyond.

Whitley, Ryan↗

Investigation into Scalable and Detection-Enhanced Satellite Conjunction Assessment

Imaging opportunities (viewable conjunctions) of Resident Space Objects (RSOs) by satellites are not continuously discovered. We propose to continuously produce and report viewable conjunctions among objects in orbit. Viewable conjunctions are events in space and time when a satellite may favorably view a Resident Space Object (RSO). Favorability is defined by a set of constraints, e.g., solar illumination, distance between observer and target, orbital location for viewable event. Computing viewable conjunctions requires calculation of orbital propagation while considering constraints based on the state vectors of position, velocity, with covariance for both satellite and RSO. We propose two parallel lanes of effort: acceleration and research. The objective of acceleration is to avoid missed opportunities and reduce latency for satellite maneuver requests through continuous prediction and reporting of viewable conjunctions. The effort will begin by deploying currently available software on dedicated systems and continue with optimizing the code for high performance computing hardware. The research lane aims to expand RSO inspection and modeling capabilities. Among our current research ideas are spectral characterization of RSO materials and planning multiple observations to recover RSO 3D form. Computing resources at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) are available for the acceleration work. Laika, Maxar conjunction prediction dashboard software, and Bluesim, Maxar orbital propagation software, are expected to be the first software in the acceleration lane. Laike and Bluesim are to be provided by the sponsor, and output will be made accessible through its dashboard. Deliverables will follow a gated schedule to the sponsor. ORNL will provide progressively more robust viewable conjunction assessments from both modelled and actual ephemerides.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Simulated Remote Sensing Polarimetric Observations Over Snow

This study presents a detailed theoretical assessment of the information content of passive polarimetric observations over snow scenes, using a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) method. Conventional sensitivity studies focus on varying a single parameter while keeping all other parameters fixed. In contrast, the GSA correctly addresses the covariance of state parameters across their entire parameter space, hence favoring a more correct interpretation of inversion algorithms and the optimal design of their state vectors. The forward simulations exploit a vector radiative transfer model to obtain the Stokes vector emerging at the top of the atmosphere for different solar zenith angles, when the bottom boundary consists of a vertically resolved snowpack of non-spherical grains. The presence of light-absorbing particulates (LAPs), either embedded in the snow or aloft in the atmosphere above in the form of aerosols, is also considered. The results are presented for a set of wavelengths spanning the visible (VIS), near-infrared (NIR), and shortwave infrared (SWIR) region of the spectrum. The GSA correctly captures the expected, high sensitivity of the reflectance to LAPs in the VIS–NIR and to grain size at different depths in the snowpack in the NIR–SWIR. With adequate viewing geometries, mono-angle measurements of total reflectance in the VIS–SWIR (akin to those of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS) resolve grain size in the top layer of the snowpack sufficiently well. The addition of multi-angle polarimetric observations in the VIS–NIR provides information on grain shape and microscale roughness. The simultaneous sensitivity in the VIS–NIR to both aerosols and snow-embedded impurities can be disentangled by extending the spectral range to the SWIR, which contains information on aerosol optical depth while remaining essentially unaffected when the same particulates are mixed with the snow. Multi-angle polarimetric observations can therefore (i) effectively partition LAPs between the atmosphere and the surface, which represents a notorious challenge for snow remote sensing based on measurements of total reflectance only and (ii) lead to better estimates of grain shape and roughness and, in turn, the asymmetry parameter, which is critical for the determination of albedo. The retrieval uncertainties are minimized when the degree of linear polarization is used in place of the polarized reflectance. The Sobol indices, which are the main metric for the GSA, were used to select the state parameters in retrievals performed on data simulated for multiple instrument configurations. Improvements in retrieval quality with the addition of measurements of polarization, multi-angle views, and different spectral channels reflect the information content, identified by the Sobol indices, relative to each configuration. The results encourage the development of new remote sensing algorithms that fully leverage multi-angle and polarimetric capabilities of modern remote sensors. They can also aid flight planning activities, since the optimal exploitation of the information content of multi-angle measurements depends on the viewing geometry. The better characterization of surface and atmospheric parameters in snow-covered regions advances research opportunities for scientists of the cryosphere and ultimately benefits albedo estimates in climate models.

remote sensing↗

Measurement of e + e − → ωπ+π− cross section at $\sqrt{s}$ = 2.000 to 3.080 GeV

A partial wave analysis on the process e⁺e⁻ → ωπ⁺π⁻ is performed using 647 pb -1 of data sample collected by using the BESIII detector operating at the BEPCII storage ring at center-of-mass (c.m.) energies from 2.000 GeV to 3.080 GeV. The Born cross section of the e⁺e⁻ → ωπ⁺π⁻ process is measured, with precision improved by a factor of 3 compared to that of previous studies. A structure near 2.25 GeV is observed in the energy-dependent cross sections of e⁺e⁻ → ωπ⁺π⁻ and ωπ 0 π 0 with a statistical significance of 7.6σ, and its determined mass and width are 2232 ± 19 ± 27 MeV/c 2 and 93 ± 53 ± 20 MeV, respectively, where the first and second uncertainties are statistical and systematic, respectively. By analyzing the cross sections of subprocesses e⁺e⁻ → ωf 0 (500), ωf 0 (980), ωf 0 (1370), ωf 2 (1270), and b1(1235)π, a structure, with mass M = 2200 ± 11 ± 17 MeV/c 2 and width Γ = 74 ± 20 ± 24 MeV, is observed with a combined statistical significance of 7.9σ. The measured resonance parameters will help to reveal the nature of vector states around 2.25 GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A global coupled ensemble data assimilation system using the Community Earth System Model and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed

In this paper, we present a description of the CESM/DART ensemble coupled data assimilation (DA) system based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) assimilation software. The CESM/DART should be viewed as a flexible system to support the DA needs of the CESM research community and not as a static reanalysis product. In this implementation of the CESM/DART, conventional insitu observations of the ocean and atmosphere are assimilated into the respective component models of the CESM using a 30-member ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). CESM/DART is run in a “weakly coupled” configuration wherein observations native to each climate system component only directly impact the state vector for that component. Information is passed between components indirectly through the short-term coupled model forecasts that provide the EAKF background ensemble. This system leverages previous ensemble DA development for the Community Atmosphere Model and Parallel Ocean Program models using the DART EAKF. The CESM/DART project is a step towards providing increasingly useful DA capabilities for the CESM research community. Results are presented for our prototype 12-year reanalysis, run from 1970 to mid 1982. Multiple lines of evidence demonstrate that the system is capable of constraining the CESM coupled model to simulate the historical variability of the climate system in the well-observed Northern Hemisphere. A collection of monthly average variables, climate mode indices, observation diagnostics and snapshots of synoptic weather in the ocean and atmosphere are compared to established datasets, showing especially good agreement in the Northern Hemisphere. A discussion of the CESM/DART as a modular, community facility and the benefits and challenges associated with this vision is also included.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tadpole-induced electroweak symmetry breaking and pNGB Higgs models

We investigate induced electroweak symmetry breaking (EWSB) in models in which the Higgs is a pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone boson (pNGB). In pNGB Higgs models, Higgs properties and precision electroweak measurements imply a hierarchy between the EWSB and global symmetry-breaking scales, $v_H \ll f_H$. When the pNGB potential is generated radiatively, this hierarchy requires fine-tuning to a degree of at least $\sim v_H^2/f_H^2$. We show that if Higgs EWSB is induced by a tadpole arising from an auxiliary sector at scale $f_\Sigma \ll v_H$, this tuning is significantly ameliorated or can even be removed. We present explicit examples both in Twin Higgs models and in Composite Higgs models based on $SO(5)/SO(4)$. For the Twin case, the result is a fully natural model with $f_H \sim 1$ TeV and the lightest colored top partners at 2 TeV. These models also have an appealing mechanism to generate the scales of the auxiliary sector and Higgs EWSB directly from the scale $f_H$, with a natural hierarchy $f_\Sigma \ll v_H \ll f_H \sim{\rm TeV}$. Finally, the framework predicts modified Higgs coupling as well as new Higgs and vector states at LHC13.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Particle filter-based modulation domain infrared targets tracking

Faced with problems of low contrast, poor SNR, and relatively complicated tracking environment, stable infrared target tracking is worth researching for its many potential applications. In this paper, instead of traditional target tracking in the pixel domain, we propose a sampling importance resampling (SIR) particle filter method with indirect velocity measurements to track infrared targets in the modulation domain. The dominant amplitude modulation (AM) features used for tracking is extracted by decomposing the input image using an 18-channel Gabor filter bank followed by the application of the dominant component analysis approach. The dominant AM modulation features provide a significant partial texture characteristic of the target which can be separated from background with better discrimination. To take advantage of observed kinematics, we utilize the augmented state vector with indirect velocity information via combining the measurements of velocity in adjacent frames to the SIR particle filter framework, which weakens weights of particles with bad velocity estimates but still having association with the cluttered background or other moving objects. A dynamic template update strategy is also provided to prevent the tracker from appearance model drift. Experiments indicate that the proposed method is effective for raising the tracking accuracy compared with other tracking methods.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Dynamic logistic regression and variable selection: Forecasting and contextualizing civil unrest

Civil unrest can range from peaceful protest to violent furor, and researchers are working to monitor, forecast, and assess such events to allocate resources better. Twitter has become a real-time data source for forecasting civil unrest because millions of people use the platform as a social outlet. Additionally, daily word counts are used as model features, and predictive terms contextualize the reasons for the protest. To forecast civil unrest and infer the reasons for the protest, we consider the problem of Bayesian variable selection for the dynamic logistic regression model and propose using penalized credible regions to select parameters of the updated state vector. This method avoids the need for shrinkage priors, is scalable to high-dimensional dynamic data, and allows the importance of variables to vary in time as new information becomes available. A substantial improvement in both precision and F1-score using this approach is demonstrated through simulation. Finally, we apply the proposed model fitting and variable selection methodology to the problem of forecasting civil unrest in Latin America. Our dynamic logistic regression approach shows improved accuracy compared to the static approach currently used in event prediction and feature selection.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Distributed and communication-efficient solutions to linear equations with special sparse structure

In this paper we report two distributed and communication-efficient algorithms based on the multi-agent system are proposed to solve a system of linear equations with the Laplacian sparse system matrix. One algorithm is based on the gradient descent method in optimization. In this algorithm, the agents only share partial information instead of all of their collective state vectors to save significant communication. The other algorithm is obtained by approximating Newton’s method for a faster convergence rate. Although it requires twice as much communication as the first one, it is still communication-efficient given the low dimension of the information shared among agents. The convergence at a linear rate is proved for both algorithms, and a comprehensive comparison of their convergence rate, communication burden, and computation costs is also performed. The proposed algorithms can be applied to various systems to solve those problems that can be modeled as a system of linear equations with a Laplacian sparse system matrix. Simulation results with the electric power system illustrate their effectiveness.

42 ENGINEERING↗