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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Statistics and sensitivity of axion wind detection with the homogeneous precession domain of superfluid helium-3

The homogeneous precession domain (HPD) of superfluid He 3 has recently been identified as a detection medium which might provide sensitivity to the axion-nucleon coupling g a N N competitive with, or surpassing, existing experimental proposals. In this work, we make a detailed study of the statistical and dynamical properties of the HPD system in order to make realistic projections for a full-fledged experimental program. We include the effects of clock error and measurement error in a concrete readout scheme using superconducting qubits and quantum metrology. This work also provides a more general framework to describe the statistics associated with the axion gradient coupling through the treatment of a transient resonance with a nonstationary background in a time-series analysis. Incorporating an optimal data-taking and analysis strategy, we project a sensitivity approaching g a N N ∼ 10 − 12 GeV − 1 across a decade in axion mass. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Computational Capacity of Mem-LRC Reservoirs

Reservoir computing has a emerged as a powerful tool in data-driven time series analysis. The possibility of utilizing hardware reservoirs as specialized co-processors has generated interest in the properties of electronic reservoirs, especially those based on memristors as the nonlinearity of these devices should translate to an improved nonlinear computational capacity of the reservoir. However, designing these reservoirs requires a detailed understanding of how memristive networks process information which has thus far been lacking. In this work, we derive an equation for general memristor-inductor-resistor-capacitor (MEM-LRC) reservoirs that includes all network and dynamical constraints explicitly. Utilizing this we undertake a study of the computational capacity of these reservoirs. We demonstrate that hardware reservoirs may be constructed with extensive memory capacity and that the presence of memristors enacts a tradeoff between memory capacity and nonlinear computational capacity. Here, using these principles, we design reservoirs to tackle problems in signal processing, paving the way for applying hardware reservoirs to high-dimensional spatiotemporal systems.

Circuits with memory↗
DOE OSTI2025

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projecting the number of new HIV infections to formulate the "Getting to Zero" strategy in Illinois, USA

Objectives: Getting to Zero (GTZ) initiatives focus on expanding use of antiretroviral treatment (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to eliminate new HIV infections. Computational models help inform policies for implementation of ART and PrEP continuums. Such models, however, vary in their design, and may yield inconsistent predictions. Using multiple approaches can help assess the consistency in results obtained from varied modeling frameworks, and can inform optimal implementation strategies. Methods: A study using three different modeling approaches is conducted. Two approaches use statistical time series analysis techniques that incorporate temporal HIV incidence data. A third approach uses stochastic stimulation, conducted using an agent-based network model (ABNM). All three approaches are used to project HIV incidence among a key population, young Black MSM (YBMSM), over the course of the GTZ implementation period (2016-2030). Results: All three approaches suggest that simultaneously increasing PrEP and ART uptake is likely to be more effective than increasing only one, but increasing ART and PrEP by 20% points may not eliminate new HIV infections among YBMSM. The results further suggest that a 20% increase in ART is likely to be more effective than a 20% increase in PrEP. All three methods consistently project that increasing ART and PrEP by 30% simultaneously can help reach GTZ goals. Conclusions: Increasing PrEP and ART uptake by about 30% might be necessary to accomplish GTZ goals. Such scale-up may require addressing psychosocial and structural barriers to engagement in HIV and PrEP care continuums. ABNMs and other flexible modeling approaches can be extended to examine specific interventions that address these barriers and may provide important data to guide the successful intervention implementation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data augmentation for disruption prediction via robust surrogate models

The goal of this work is to generate large statistically representative datasets to train machine learning models for disruption prediction provided by data from few existing discharges. Such a comprehensive training database is important to achieve satisfying and reliable prediction results in artificial neural network classifiers. Here, we aim for a robust augmentation of the training database for multivariate time series data using Student-t process regression. We apply Student-t process regression in a state space formulation via Bayesian filtering to tackle challenges imposed by outliers and noise in the training data set and to reduce the computational complexity. Thus, the method can also be used if the time resolution is high. We use an uncorrelated model for each dimension and impose correlations afterwards via coloring transformations. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on plasma diagnostics data of three different disruption classes from the DIII-D tokamak. To evaluate if the distribution of the generated data is similar to the training data, we additionally perform statistical analyses using methods from time series analysis, descriptive statistics, and classic machine learning clustering algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1973

Induced shock pulse testing by transient waveform control

A method of synthesizing an arbitrarily shaped transient time pulse on vibration exciters is described. The transient waveform control technique is based on recent developments in digital time series analysis, the real-time FFT processor. A brief description of the theory, error estimates and hardware/software implementation to the JPL Dynamic Environmental Testing Laboratory is presented.

Kim, B. K.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Techniques for Forecasting Air Passenger Traffic

The basic techniques of forecasting the air passenger traffic are outlined. These techniques can be broadly classified into four categories: judgmental, time-series analysis, market analysis and analytical. The differences between these methods exist, in part, due to the degree of formalization of the forecasting procedure. Emphasis is placed on describing the analytical method.

Taneja, N.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Using computers to analyze continuous data.

Dynamic field measurements often involve large quantities of continuous data, which must be analyzed and interpreted to obtain meaningful information. The processing can often be accomplished by tape-recording the data in analog form, performing off-line digitalization, and using the result as an input to statistical programs on a digital computer. A time series analysis was used to obtain power spectral density (PSD) curves to identify dominant frequencies. Representative PSD plots were obtained for STOL aircraft during cruise. Vibrational energy was clearly concentrated below 0.1 Hz, and was much higher in the vertical than in the lateral direction.

Catherines, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Analyses of mean and turbulent motion in the tropics with the use of unequally spaced data

Wind velocities from 25 km to 60 km over Ascension Island, Fort Sherman and Kwajalein for the period January 1970 to December 1971 are analyzed in order to achieve a better understanding of the mean flow, the eddy kinetic energy and the Eulerian time spectra of the eddy kinetic energy. Since the data are unequally spaced in time, techniques of one-dimensional covariance theory were utilized and an unequally spaced time series analysis was accomplished. The theoretical equations for two-dimensional analysis or wavenumber frequency analysis of unequally spaced data were developed. Analysis of the turbulent winds and the average seasonal variance and eddy kinetic energy of the turbulent winds indicated that maximum total variance and energy is associated with the east-west velocity component. This is particularly true for long period seasonal waves which dominate the total energy spectrum. Additionally, there is an energy shift for the east-west component into the longer period waves with altitude increasing from 30 km to 50 km.

Kao, S. K.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Radar observation of known and unknown clear echoes

Target cross-section as a function of wavelength for known insects, known bird, and dot targets is presented. Tracking data using the time series analysis was tabulated for known birds. Examples were selected from these early works to give entomologists some indication of the types of information that are available by radar as well as examples of the different sources of clear-air radar backscatter.

Glover, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Lightning source locations from VHF radiation data for a flash at Kennedy Space Center

Three dimensional locations are presented for the VHF (30-50 MHz) radiation sources generated by a three-stroke lightning flash at the Kennedy Space Center. The locations were obtained by calculating the difference in time of arrival (DTOA) of radiated pulses at four ground stations. A computer-implemented multiple time series analysis was used in calculating DTOA data. The locations of the approximately 48,000 sequential VHF sources are compared with wide band electric-field records to provide a better understanding of the physics of lightning discharge.

Rustan, P. L.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Computational problems in autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models

The choice of the sampling interval and the selection of the order of the model in time series analysis are considered. Band limited (up to 15 Hz) random torque perturbations are applied to the human ankle joint. The applied torque input, the angular rotation output, and the electromyographic activity using surface electrodes from the extensor and flexor muscles of the ankle joint are recorded. Autoregressive moving average models are developed. A parameter constraining technique is applied to develop more reliable models. The asymptotic behavior of the system must be taken into account during parameter optimization to develop predictive models.

Agarwal, G. C.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Identification of multivariable high performance turbofan engine dynamics from closed loop data

The multivariable instrumental variable/approximate maximum likelihood (IV/AML) method or recursive time-series analysis is used to identify the multivariable (four inputs-three outputs) dynamics of the Pratt and Whitney F100 engine. A detailed nonlinear engine simulation is used to determine linear engine model structures and parameters at an operating point using open loop data. Also, the IV/AML method is used in a direct identification mode to identify models from actual closed loop engine test data. Models identified from simulated and test data are compared to determine a final model structure and parameterization that can predict engine response for a wide class of inputs. The ability of the IV/AML algorithm to identify useful dynamic models from engine test data is assessed.

Merrill, W.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Doppler radar echoes of lightning and precipitation at vertical incidence

Digital time series data at 16 heights within two storms were collected at vertical incidence with a 10-cm Doppler radar. On several occasions during data collection, lightning echoes were observed as increased reflectivity on an oscilloscope display. Simultaneously, lightning signals from nearby electric field change antennas were recorded on an analog recorder together with the radar echoes. Reflectivity, mean velocity, and Doppler spectra were examined by means of time series analysis for times during and after lightning discharges. Spectra from locations where lightning occurred show peaks, due to the motion of the lightning channel at the air speed. These peaks are considerably narrower than the ones due to precipitation. Besides indicating the vertical air velocity that can then be used to estimate hydrometeor-size distribution, the lightning spectra provide a convenient means to estimate the radar cross section of the channel. Subsequent to one discharge, we deduce that a rapid change in the orientation of hydrometeors occurred within the resolution volume.

Zrnic, D. S.↗
NASA NTRS1984

L band push broom microwave radiometer: Soil moisture verification and time series experiment Delmarva Peninsula

The verification of a multi-sensor aircraft system developed to study soil moisture applications is discussed. This system consisted of a three beam push broom L band microwave radiometer, a thermal infrared scanner, a multispectral scanner, video and photographic cameras and an onboard navigational instrument. Ten flights were made of agricultural sites in Maryland and Delaware with little or no vegetation cover. Comparisons of aircraft and ground measurements showed that the system was reliable and consistent. Time series analysis of microwave and evaporation data showed a strong similarity that indicates a potential direction for future research.

Jackson, T. J.↗