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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Resonant Soft X-ray Scattering Reveals Hierarchical Structure in a Multicomponent Vapor-Deposited Glass

Multiphase vapor-deposited glasses are an important class of materials for organic electronics, particularly organic photovoltaics and thermoelectrics. These blends are frequently regarded as molecular alloys and there have been few studies of their structure at nanometer scales. Here, in this work, we show that a codeposited system of TPD (N,N'-bis(3-methylphenyl)-N,N'-diphenylbenzidine) and DO37 (disperse orange 37), two small molecule glass-formers, separates into amorphous, compositionally distinct phases with a domain size and spacing ca. 10s of nanometers that depends on substrate temperature during deposition. Domains rich in one of the two components become larger and more pure at higher deposition temperatures. We use resonant soft X-ray scattering (RSoXS) complemented with atomic force microscopy (AFM) and photoinduced force microscopy to measure the phase separation, topography, and purity of the deposited films. A forward-simulation approach to RSoXS analysis, the National Institute of Standards and Technology RSoXS Simulation Suite (NIST RSoXS simulation suite), is used with models developed from AFM images to evaluate the energy dependence of scattering across multiple length scales and interpret the RSoXS with respect to structure within the films. We find that the RSoXS is sensitive to a length scale of phase separation buried within the film that is consistent with the surface composition profile, and correlates to the topography to an extent that depends on substrate temperature. We demonstrate that vacuum scattering, which is often ignored in RSoXS analysis, contributes significantly to the features and energy dependence of the RSoXS pattern, and then illustrate how to properly account for vacuum scattering to analyze films with significant roughness. We then use this analysis framework to understand structure development mechanisms that occur during vapor deposition of a TPD-DO37 codeposited glass with results that outline paths to tune morphology in multicomponent materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantification and evaluation of strain reduction from small-bubble gas injection in Spallation Neutron Source target vessels

Small-bubble gas injection has been routinely utilized in the operation of Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) mercury targets since 2017 to mitigate cavitation-induced erosion damage to target vessels. Strain measurements of target vessels collected in-situ during initial operation with gas injection were used to study the gas injection effect on the structural response of targets to proton pulses. A significant strain reduction owing to gas injection was found by comparing the strain measurement data during operation with and without gas injection. The research presented here focuses on quantifying strain reductions in SNS targets and evaluating the effect of small-bubble gas injection by comparing different bubbler types and target designs. The strain measurement results show the gas injection significantly reduced strain in SNS target vessels; strain values decreased by 30% to 80% for targets operating with gas injection. Stress and strain responses of SNS targets were simulated to numerically evaluate the gas injection effect. Based on the predicted stresses with and without gas injection, the fatigue lifetimes of SNS jet-flow design target were estimated using fe-safe fatigue analysis software. The simulations show these reductions should improve the fatigue life of target vessels and allow SNS targets to meet their fatigue design goal.

Fatigue life estimation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automatic Extraction of Network Configurations for Realistic Simulation and Validation

Popular HPC network interconnection simulators such as SST Macro provide a variety of configurable parameters to explore the design space of hardware components such as network links and switches. While such knobs provide flexibility to explore design trade-offs for novel hardware, manually configuring simulations for existing hardware to focus on topology exploration can be cumbersome and error-prone, leading to widely inaccurate simulations. This challenge is compounded when specifications of various (proprietary) technologies are not readily available or are intentionally omitted. In this work, we provide a methodology to automatically tune the simulation configuration of the multiple network models running within SST Macro using Bayesian optimization. We perform this optimization in the context of multiple messaging regimes (i.e., small to large and latency to bandwidth-bound messages) and provide a detailed analysis of the simulation error for four systems. With our automated framework, we achieve a 5x improvement in accuracy over best-effort configurations based on available hardware specifications.

Suetterlein, Joshua D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Relationship between microporous structure and light gas transport through glassy polymeric membranes revealed by molecular simulations

Microporous glassy polymers are attractive materials for gas separation membranes, due to their high permeability and tailorable selectivity, provided physical aging can be delayed. The archetypal microporous glassy polymer, PTMSP, can be blended with a hyper-crosslinked isatin–triptycene porous polymer network (PPN) to delay physical aging. However, while PPN is effective at reducing physical aging, it also affects the permeability of light gases through PTMSP. Molecular dynamics simulations were used here to shed fundamental light on the mechanisms responsible for these effects. Atomistic models are developed that satisfactorily reproduce experimental observations such as matrix density and cavity size distributions for neat PTMSP as well as for PTMSP–PPN blends. Analysis of the simulation results suggests that physical aging is delayed because the PPN inclusions slow down PTMSP relaxation while reducing the connectivity between free volume pockets. To understand how PPN inclusions affect light gas permeability, the atomistic models developed are used to probe CO 2 and CH 4 diffusion and sorption. These simulations are conducted for PTMSP matrices exhibiting varying density, towards reproducing experimental permeability data. Interrogating the simulation trajectories, it is discovered that while CH 4 travels preferentially through the free volume cavities, CO 2 preferentially interacts with the available surfaces, especially in the presence of PPN. These differences help interpret experimental observations. The transport of C 2 H 6 and H 2 S through PTMSP matrices was also investigated. These gases, and in particular H 2 S, were found to absorb within PTMSP, yielding very low diffusion coefficients. The ability to predict differences in diffusion pathways for various natural gas components unveils the possibility of engineering membranes to control permeability and selectivity towards large-scale applications.

Bao Le, Tran Thi [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (U↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Partial Reflection Paths for Infrasound Analysis

Numerical methods enabling simulation of scattered and partially reflected infrasonic propagation paths produced by interaction with fine-scale structure in the middle atmosphere have been implemented in the infraGA ray tracing software. This capability enables simulation of ensonification in the classical stratospheric “shadow zone” that has been observed during the Humming Roadrunner and LSECE surface explosion campaigns as well as in other data sets. In the case of LSECE, a pair of stations roughly 140 kilometers east of the source location observed arrivals with celerities (horizontal group velocities) slightly slower than observed stratospheric paths at similar azimuths. The arrivals exhibited increasing trace velocity later in the wavetrain indicating a steepening of the arrival path for longer or slower propagation paths. Simulation of partially reflected paths using the updated infraGA software methods finds good agreement between observed and predicted infrasonic ensonification at these locations within the stratospheric shadow zone. Further development of the partial reflection physics and comparison with other data sets is needed to more robustly understand how such anomalous infrasonic signals can be predicted; however, the demonstration of this capability is a promising first step in such analyses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Novel Instrumentation for Advanced Quantum Chromodynamics Studies with Flavor Sensitivity

The true nature of ordinary matter has always fascinated humankind, whose imagination has been pointed to the right direction since the 5th century BC with the first known atomic theory by Leucippus and Democritus. They described the matter as formed by small, invisible, indivisible, and eternal particles: the atoms. A long investigation followed them, including contributions from several of history?s greatest philosophers and scientists. The progress led to the understanding that atoms have an internal structure consisting of a central nucleus composed of protons and neutrons, surrounded by a cloud of electrons. About 50 years ago, scientists discovered that nucleons also have an internal structure. Through the Deep Inelastic Scattering (DIS) experiments, on which a lepton is scattered off a nucleon, it was possible to access the distribution of partons inside the nucleon along the longitudinal direction defined by the hard-scale probe. It was a crucial step in developing Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD), currently the best theory describing the subatomic matter. Ultimately, DIS was recognized as a limited tool to investigate the nucleon structure because it is mainly sensitive to observables at the probe?s energy scale. In recent decades, theoretical developments have allowed defining soft-scale observables by measuring more complex processes. Reactions such as Semi-Inclusive Deep Inelastic Scattering (SIDIS) with single or di-hadron production, can provide information about the momentum of parton inside the nucleon. In particular, polarized SIDIS allows access to the Transverse-Momentum-Dependent (TMD) parton distributions describing the correlations of the quark and gluon degrees of freedom in transverse momentum and spin. This study can provide three-dimensional imaging of nucleon structure and inner dynamics, as long as the hadronic component in the final state can be measured. Identifying the species of the produced particles provides information on the quark flavor and assumes a crucial role in this context. The thesis describes the work carried out by the author in preparing novel instrumentation for particle identification in the final state of DIS experiments, to support modern analysis of the parton dynamics within the basic confined object (nucleon) with flavor sensitivity. The work has been focused on the CLAS12 spectrometer in operation at Jefferson Laboratory (JLab), Newport News, VA, USA, and the ePIC experiment in preparation for the future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Long Island, NY, USA. CLAS12 is a fixed-target experiment using a 12 GeV beam of polarized electrons scattering off polarized nuclear targets. In 2018 and 2022, two Ring Imaging Cherenkov (RICH) detector modules were installed to improve the ?±/K± separation in the high-momentum region (3÷8 GeV/c) of the experiment. The author contributed to the assembly, installation, and com- missioning of the second RICH module, to the efficiency studies of the first module, and to the first SIDIS analysis with high-momentum kaons identified by the RICH. These studies led to the observation of the first spin asymmetry with high-momentum kaons from the CLAS12 experiment, and an initial assessment of the systematic error associated with the hadron identification. ePIC will be the first experiment at the future EIC, the new collider designed to expand the frontiers of QCD. The author was involved in the development of the dual-radiator Ring Imaging Cherenkov (dRICH). This detector will interpolate the measurements of the Cherenkov angles of photons produced by relativistic particles crossing two different radiators to identify charged hadrons. The author contributed to the studies conducted with the dRICH prototype, developing the reconstruction and analysis software and simulations, characterizing the aerogel radiator samples, and being responsible for the tracking system used during the beam tests. The performance obtained by the prototype has been progressively improved and the results are now comparable with the expectation derived from the simulation and satisfy the requirements of the experiment. In Chapter 1, the SIDIS theory is briefly introduced, outlying the connection with the experimental measurement. Chapter 2 includes the description of the CLAS12 RICH, its assembly and installation, and the efficiency study. In Chapter 3, the analysis of the Beam-Spin Asymmetry associated with SIDIS kaons is described. Chapter 4 describes the contribution to the dRICH for EIC, starting from a description of the ePIC experiment and focusing on the studies performed for the dRICH prototype. The conclusions of this work are summarized at the end.

Vallarino, Simone↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Small-Angle X-ray Scattering Analysis in Autonomous Experimentation

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) is a powerful high-throughput characterization tool for probing nanoscale structure in native sample environments, providing real-time morphological information such as nanoparticle size and shape during synthesis. However, automated SAXS data analysis for extracting meaningful structural parameters is non-trivial and remains a bottleneck in closed-loop experimentation towards autonomous materials discovery, which demands fast, reliable, and uncertainty-aware data analysis. Here, we develop a machine-learning approach for automated SAXS analysis tailored to closed-loop nanoparticle synthesis. A Random Forest (RF) regression model is trained on 100,000 synthetic SAXS curves generated from polydisperse spherical nanoparticles with realistic background contributions. Using normalized one-dimensional SAXS intensity profiles as input, the RF model directly predicts nanoparticle radius, size polydispersity, and background parameters, while the ensemble standard deviation across trees provides built-in uncertainty quantification (UQ). On synthetic data, we show that combining fit-quality metrics (R 2 , MAE) with thresholds on prediction uncertainty reliably identifies accurate parameter estimates without access to ground truth. We then apply the trained model to 365 experimental SAXS profiles of citrate-reduced gold nanoparticles synthesized using an automated droplet-flow microreactor with in situ SAXS at a synchrotron beamline, classifying the results into high- and low-confidence subsets based on UQ metrics. Finally, we integrate RF-based SAXS analysis into a simulated closed-loop optimization campaign using Gaussian process Bayesian optimization to minimize nanoparticle polydispersity, benchmarking against conventional automated Levenberg–Marquardt fitting. The RF-guided campaign exhibits substantially faster convergence and lower relative opportunity cost (∼0.07 vs ∼0.3), demonstrating that uncertainty-aware machine-learning SAXS analysis significantly enhances the efficiency and robustness of autonomous nanomaterials synthesis workflows.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unlocking the unfolded structure of ubiquitin: Combining time-resolved x-ray solution scattering and molecular dynamics to generate unfolded ensembles

The unfolding dynamics of ubiquitin were studied using a combination of x-ray solution scattering (XSS) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The kinetic analysis of the XSS ubiquitin signals showed that the protein unfolds through a two-state process, independent of the presence of destabilizing salts. In order to characterize the ensemble of unfolded states in atomic detail, the experimental XSS results were used as a constraint in the MD simulations through the incorporation of x-ray scattering derived potential to drive the folded ubiquitin structure toward sampling unfolded states consistent with the XSS signals. We detail how biased MD simulations provide insight into unfolded states that are otherwise difficult to resolve and underscore how experimental XSS data can be combined with MD to efficiently sample structures away from the native state. Our results indicate that ubiquitin samples unfolded in states with a high degree of loss in secondary structure yet without a collapse to a molten globule or fully solvated extended chain. Finally, we propose how using biased-MD can significantly decrease the computational time and resources required to sample experimentally relevant nonequilibrium states.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Phonons reveal coupled cholesterol-lipid dynamics in ternary membranes

Experimental studies of collective dynamics in lipid bilayers have been challenging due to the energy resolution required to observe these low-energy phonon-like modes. However, inelastic X-ray scattering (IXS) measurements — a technique for probing vibrations in soft and biological materials — are now possible with sub-meV resolution, permitting direct observation of low energy, phonon-like modes in lipid membranes. Here, in this study, IXS measurements with sub-meV energy resolution reveal a low-energy optic-like phonon mode at roughly 3 meV in the liquid-ordered (L o ) and liquid-disordered (L d ) phases of a ternary lipid mixture. This mode is only observed experimentally at momentum transfers greater than 5 nm -1 in the L o system. A similar gapped mode is also observed in all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of the same mixture, indicating that the simulations accurately represnt the fast, collective dynamics in the L o phase. It’s optical nature and the Q range of the gap together suggest that the observed mode is due to the coupled motion of cholesterol-lipid pairs, separated by several hydrocarbon chains within the membrane plane. Analysis of the simulations provide molecular insight into the origin of the mode in transient, nanoscale substructures of hexagonally packed hydrocarbon chains. This nanoscale hexagonal packing was previously reported based on molecular dynamics simulations and later by NMR measurements. Here, however, the integration of IXS and MD simulations identifies a new signature of the L o substructure in the collective lipid dynamics, thanks to the recent confluence of IXS sensitivity and MD simulation capabilities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cluster-Graph Fingerprinting: A Framework for Quantitative Analysis of Machine-Learned Interatomic Model Training and Simulation Data

Machine-learned interatomic models represent a significant advancement in simulation methods, extending the predictive ability of first-principles methods to previously inaccessible length and time scales. However, the data-driven nature of these models can lead to difficult-to-detect errors that can compromise prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel fingerprinting approach based on the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) ML-IAM graph-based descriptor. Our strategy enables efficient and statistically rigorous analysis of system configurations used in ML-IAM training and those generated by their application, e.g., in molecular dynamics simulations. We demonstrate that these fingerprints can effectively assess novelty of a configuration relative to an existing data set and determine dissimilarity among individual configurations, which are two key tasks in workflows for active learning-based ML-IAM training, data set curation, and on-the-fly uncertainty quantification.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Oil-Pressure Based Apparatus for In-Situ High-Energy Synchrotron X-Ray Diffraction Studies During Biaxial Deformation

Background: Understanding biaxial loading response at the microstructural level is crucial in helping better design sheet manufacturing processes and calibrate/validate material deformation models. Objective: The objective of this work was to develop a low-cost testing apparatus to probe, with sufficient spatial resolution, the micro-mechanical response of a sheet material in-situ under biaxial loading conditions. Methods: The testing apparatus fabricated as a part of this study operates in a similar fashion to a standard bulge test and uses oil pressure to generate biaxial loading conditions. This biaxial testing apparatus was operated within a synchrotron beamline to characterize the mechanical response of a flash-processed steel sheet using in-situ high-energy X-ray diffraction (XRD) measurements. Further, the GSAS-II package was utilized to develop a workflow for the analysis of the large volume of diffraction data acquired. The workflow was then used to extract the peak position, width, and integrated intensity of the XRD peaks corresponding to the major body-centered cubic phase. Results: The equi-biaxial nature of the loading in the measured area was independently corroborated using experimental (XRD) and simulation (finite element analysis) methods. Furthermore, we discuss the evolution of elastic strain in the major body-centered cubic phase as a function of applied oil pressure and location on the steel sheet. Conclusions: A key advantage of the biaxial apparatus fabricated in this synchrotron study is demonstrated using the results obtained for the flash-processed steel sheet – i.e., mapping the lattice plane-dependent response to biaxial loading for a relatively large sample area in a spatially resolved manner.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Basin-scale analysis of Mokelumne River Formation for multi-well CO 2 injection

Large-scale carbon sequestration will likely require multiple projects injecting CO 2 into the same subsurface formation, raising concerns about safe operation and efficient use of storage capacity. This study evaluates the long-term response of the Mokelumne River Formation in California’s Sacramento Basin to multi-megaton CO 2 injection using three geologic models of the formation and the open-source simulator GEOS. The analysis focuses on three aspects of reservoir performance: (1) average pressure increase and dissolved CO 2 mass after 30 years for varying well counts and injection rates, (2) pressure interference in a multi-well configuration, and (3) dynamic storage capacity with identification of overpressure-prone regions. The results show that average formation pressure increases linearly with injected mass, while CO 2 dissolution exhibits mixed scaling: approximately linear with the number of wells but sublinear with injection rate, indicating that distributing injection across more wells enhances dissolution more effectively than increasing per-well rates. Pressure-interference effects are significant, with lower-permeability conditions delaying their onset but amplifying their magnitude at later times. Dynamic capacity, defined by the first occurrence of pressure exceeding the local overburden-based limit anywhere in the formation, varies across geologic models and assumed overburden pressure gradients. A lower fidelity geologic model predicts nearly twice the storage capacity of the two higher fidelity models, which consistently estimate approximately 1 Gt under the upper-bound overburden pressure gradient considered for the Sacramento Basin. In all model scenarios, overpressure develops away from injection wells, particularly in higher-elevation regions, highlighting the importance of basin-scale modelling for identifying risks beyond the immediate well vicinity.

Basin-scale↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of APCVD BSG and POCl 3 Codiffusion Process for Double-Side TOPCon Solar Cell Precursor Fabrication

This paper presents a commercially viable process for fabricating a high-quality double-side tunnel oxide passivating contact (DS-TOPCon) cell precursor using APCVD-deposited boron silicate glass and ex-situ POCl 3 diffusion in a single high-temperature step, eliminating the need for additional masking and diffusion processes. A two-tier temperature profile was developed, involving a pre-annealing at above 900°C in nitrogen (N2) ambient followed by POCl 3 diffusion at 840°C. We investigated the effect of varying pre-annealing temperatures, ranging from 875°C to 950°C, on the passivation quality and metal-Si contact properties of both n-TOPCon and p-TOPCon layers. The resultant DS-TOPCon cell precursor after silicon nitride (SiNX) passivation exhibited an excellent iV OC of close to 730 mV. In addition, a rapid asymmetric poly-Si thinning technique, developed in this work, enabled adjustment of the front n + poly-Si thickness while maintaining the rear p + poly-Si thickness. Two types of DS-TOPCon cell architectures can be fabricated: i) full-area thin (≈40nm) n-TOPCon layer on the front and ii) selective-area thick (≈200nm) n-TOPCon fingers underneath the metal grid. Device simulations suggest that full-area DS-TOPCon cell with 40 nm n + poly-Si and selective-area DS-TOPCon cell with 200 nm n + poly fingers on the front, fabricated from our current DS-TOPCon cell precursor, can achieve cell efficiencies of 22.1 and 23.5%, respectively. Detailed power loss analysis and device simulation reveal that further improvements in material and device parameters have potential to push the cell efficiencies of DS-TOPCon cell structure beyond 25%, making it a promising alternative to fabricate a high-efficiency next-generation solar cells at low cost.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A thermal-driven graupel generation process to explain dry-season convective vigor over the Amazon

Large-eddy simulations (LESs) are conducted for each day of the intensive observation periods (IOPs) of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) field campaign to characterize the updrafts and microphysics within deep convective cores while contrasting those properties between Amazon wet and dry seasons. Mean Doppler velocity (V dop ) values simulated using LESs are compared with 2-year measurements from a radar wind profiler (RWP) as viewed by statistical composites separated according to wet- and dry-season conditions. In the observed RWP and simulated LES V dop composites, we find more intense low-level updraft velocity, vigorous graupel generation, and intense surface rain during the dry periods compared with the wet periods. To investigate coupled updraft–microphysical processes further, single-day golden cases are selected from the wet and dry periods to conduct detailed cumulus thermal tracking analysis. Tracking analysis reveals that simulated dry-season environments generate more droplet-loaded low-level thermals than wet-season environments. This tendency correlates with seasonal contrasts in buoyancy and vertical moisture advection profiles in large-scale forcing. Employing a normalized time series of mean thermal microphysics, the simulated cumulus thermals appear to be the primary generator of cloud droplets. When subsequent thermals penetrate the ice crystal layer, droplets within the thermals interact with entrained ice crystals, which enhances riming in the thermals. This appears to be a production pathway of graupel/hail particles within simulated deep convective cores. In addition, less-diluted dry-case thermals tend to be elevated higher, and graupel grows further during sedimentation after spilling out from thermals. Therefore, greater concentrations of low-level moist thermals likely result in more graupel/hail production and associated dry-season convective vigor.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Cr and molten salt interfacial interactions for molten salt applications

Molten salts play an important role in various energy-related applications such as high-temperature heat transfer fluids and reaction media. However, the extreme molten salt environment causes the degradation of materials, raising safety and sustainability challenges. A fundamental understanding of material–molten salt interfacial evolution is needed. This work studies the transformation of metallic Cr in molten 50/50 mol% KCl–MgCl 2 via multi-modal in situ synchrotron X-ray nano-tomography, diffraction and spectroscopy combined with density functional theory (DFT) and ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations. Notably, in addition to the dissolution of Cr in the molten salt to form porous structures, a δ-A15 Cr phase was found to gradually form as a result of the metal–salt interaction. This phase change of Cr is associated with a change in the coordination environment of Cr at the interface. DFT and AIMD simulations provide a basis for understanding the enhanced stability of δ-A15 Cr vs. bcc Cr, by revealing their competitive phase thermodynamics at elevated temperatures and probing the interfacial behavior of the molten salt at relevant facets. This study provides critical insights into the morphological and chemical evolution of metal–molten salt interfaces. Finally, the combination of multimodal synchrotron analysis and atomic simulation also offers an opportunity to explore a broader range of systems critical to energy applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗