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DOE OSTI2025

An On-Sky Atmospheric Calibration of SPT-SLIM

We present the methodology and results of the on-sky responsivity calibration of the South Pole Telescope Shirokoff Line Intensity Mapper (SPT-SLIM). SPT-SLIM is a pathfinder line intensity mapping experiment utilizing the on-chip spectrometer technology, and was first deployed during the 2024-2025 Austral Summer season on the South Pole Telescope. During the two-week on-sky operation of SPT-SLIM, we performed periodic measurements of the detector response as a function of the telescope elevation angle. Combining these data with atmospheric opacity measurements from an on-site atmospheric tipping radiometer, simulated South Pole atmospheric spectra, and measured detector spectral responses, we construct estimates for the responsivity of SPT-SLIM detectors to sky loading. We then use this model to calibrate observations of the moon taken by SPT-SLIM, cross-checking the result against the known brightness temperature of the Moon as a function of its phase.

Dibert, K. R. [Chicago U., Astron. Astrophys. Ctr.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Clear-Sky Detection Using Time-Averaged, Tilted-Plane Data

A method is presented to detect clear-sky periods for plane-of-array, time-averaged irradiance data that is based on the algorithm originally described by Reno and Hansen. We show this new method improves the state-of-the-art by providing accurate detection at longer data intervals, and by detecting clear periods in plane-of-array data, which is novel. We illustrate how accurate determination of clear-sky conditions helps to eliminate data noise and bias in the assessment of long-term performance of PV plants.

clear-sky conditions↗

DOE OSTI2022

Short-term solar radiation forecast using total sky imager via transfer learning

Ground-based sky cameras, which capture hemispherical images, have been extensively used for localized monitoring of clouds. This paper proposes a short-term forecasting approach based on transfer learning using Total Sky-Imager (TSI) images of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site obtained from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) dataset. An accurate estimation of solar irradiance using TSI is key for short-term solar energy generation forecasting and optimal energy consumption planning. We make use of deep neural network architectures such as AlexNet and ResNet-101 to extract the underlying deep convolution features from TSI images and then train using an ensemble learning approach to model and forecast solar radiation. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach by showcasing the best and worst cases. Thus, the transfer learning approach significantly reduces the time and resources required for modeling solar radiation. We outperform with reference to another state-of-art technique for solar modeling using TSI images at different forecast lead times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Climate change drives convergent evolution of root traits on Sky Island climate relicts

Roots are essential to the strategies plants use to survive in variable environments, yet we know little of how they vary within species. Experimental conditions demonstrate that intraspecific plant root traits respond strongly to variation in the environment; however, it is unclear when these responses can be characterized as evolution in response to selective pressures of climate change over many generations. Sky Islands are model, natural climate relict ecosystems to examine climate-change driven evolution. Utilizing a common garden with replicate genotypes of Populus angustifolia (Narrowleaf cottonwood) from six Sky Island (SI) populations and nine adjacent Mountain Chain (MC) populations across three genetic provenances, we hypothesized that SI root traits have diverged due to historical isolation in warmer, drier climates. When grown in common conditions, populations originating on SI’s showed convergent evolution across three distinct genetic provenances, which was characterized by 44.16% decreased total root length, 42.64% decreased average root volume, 43.31% decreased root surface area, and significantly less root trait variation, relative to adjacent mountain chains. Convergent evolution of root traits from trees originating on SI’s is correlated with changes in mean annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in the field over the past ~ 125 years. These results demonstrate a consistent pattern in root trait evolution at the landscape scale and the role of climate on the evolution of root traits in a genetic and geographic context relevant to climate change.

Convergent evolution↗

DOE OSTI2022

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images

Solar forecasting is shifting to the probabilistic paradigm due to the inherent uncertainty within the solar resource. Input uncertainty quantification is one of the widely used and best-performing ways to model solar uncertainty. However, compared to other sources of inputs, such as numerical weather prediction models, pure sky image-based probabilistic solar forecasting lags behind. In this research, an occlusion-perturbed convolutional neural network, named the PSolarNet, is developed. The PSolarNet provides very short-term deterministic forecasts, forecast scenarios, and probabilistic forecasts of the global horizontal irradiance from sky image sequences. Case studies based on 6 years of open-source data show that the developed PSolarNet is able to generate accurate 10-minute ahead deterministic forecasts with a 5.62% normalized root mean square error, realistic and diverse forecast scenarios with a 0.966 average correlation with the actual time series, and reliable and sharp probabilistic forecasts with a 2.77% normalized continuous ranked probability score.

Bayesian model averaging↗

NASA NTRS2013

Derivation of Sky-View Factors from LIDAR Data

The use of Lidar (Light Detection and Ranging), an active light-emitting instrument, is becoming increasingly common for a range of potential applications. Its ability to provide fine resolution spatial and vertical resolution elevation data makes it ideal for a wide range of studies. This paper demonstrates the capability of Lidar data to measure sky view factors (SVF). The Lidar data is used to generate a spatial map of SVFs which are then compared against photographically-derived SVF at selected point locations. At each location three near-surface elevations measurements were taken and compared with collocated Lidar-derived estimated. It was found that there was generally good agreement between the two methodologies, although with decreasing SVF the Lidar-derived technique tended to overestimate the SVF: this can be attributed in part to the spatial resolution of the Lidar sampling. Nevertheless, airborne Lidar systems can map sky view factors over a large area easily, improving the utility of such data in atmospheric and meteorological models.

spatial map↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assessment of a Technique for Estimating Total Column Water Vapor Using Measurements of the Infrared Sky Temperature

A method for estimating the integrated precipitable water (IPW) content of the atmosphere using measurements of indicated infrared zenith sky temperature was validated over east-central Florida. The method uses inexpensive, commercial off the shelf, hand-held infrared thermometers (IRT). Two such IRTs were obtained from a commercial vendor, calibrated against several laboratory reference sources at KSC, and used to make IR zenith sky temperature measurements in the vicinity of KSC and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The calibration and comparison data showed that these inexpensive IRTs provided reliable, stable IR temperature measurements that were well correlated with the NOAA IPW observations.

integrated precipitable water (IPW)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images: Preprint

Bayesian model averaging↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improving the prediction of DNI with physics-based representation of all-sky circumsolar radiation

Direct normal irradiance (DNI) is often interpreted differently in ground measurements and forecasts using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, leading to substantial bias in DNI forecasting especially under cloudy-sky conditions. To mitigate the bias, we use the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI) to conduct physics-based simulations of solar radiation in the circumsolar region. The DNI is quantified using the sum of the radiation along the sun direction and the scattered radiation within the circumsolar region. FARMS-DNI is coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) to predict day-ahead DNI in 9-km pixels over an extended domain covering the contiguous United States. The DNI forecasts for the entire year of 2018 are validated using surface-based observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) and Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) sites and a satellite-based solar radiation product developed by the procedure of the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB). The results show that the WRF-Solar coupled with the conventional Beer-Bouguer-Lambert law underestimes the overall DNI forecasts by 30%-60%, which is a joint effect of the uncertainties in computing the circumsolar radiation and forecasting cloud properties. This bias is significantly reduced by using FARMS-DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Three-Dimensional Surface Downwelling Longwave Radiation Clear-Sky Effects in the Upper Colorado River Basin

In complex terrain, non-parallel surfaces receive emitted radiation from adjacent surfaces. Qualitatively, where surface skin temperatures and lower tropospheric temperature and humidity are not uniform, the downwelling longwave radiation (DLR) will be determined not just by radiation from the atmosphere above a given location, but also by adjacent surface temperatures. We quantify this three-dimensional longwave radiative effect over the Upper Colorado River Basin in clear-sky conditions by calculating surface DLR with observed land-surface temperatures from ECOSTRESS. We find that this effect is due to terrain-subtended sky-view and represents ~22% of the surface longwave flux, rising to ~28% and ~24% in the East and Southeast of the Basin, respectively, and can be >50% in extreme cases. The common omission of this effect in atmospheric radiation models leads to an underestimation of DLR in complex terrain, especially at higher elevations, which has significant implications for mountainous ecohydrology simulations.

3-dimensional effects↗

DOE OSTI2023

A multifrequency characterization of the extragalactic hard X-ray sky

Context: Nowadays, we know that the origin of the cosmic X-ray background (CXB) is mainly due to the integrated emission of active galactic nuclei. Therefore, in order to obtain a precise estimate of the contribution of different source classes to the CXB, it is crucial to achieve full characterization of the hard-X ray sky. Aims: We present a multifrequency analysis of all sources listed in the third release of the Palermo Swift-BAT hard X-ray catalog (3PBC) with the goal of (i) identifying and classifying the largest number of sources adopting multifrequency criteria, with particular emphasis on extragalactic populations and (ii) extracting sources belonging to the class of Seyfert galaxies to present here the release of the second version of the Turin-SyCAT. Methods: We outline a classification scheme based on radio, infrared (IR), and optical criteria that allows us to distinguish between unidentified and unclassified hard X-ray sources, as well as to classify those sources belonging to the Galactic and the extragalactic populations. Results: Our revised version of the 3PBC lists 1176 classified, 820 extragalactic, and 356 Galactic sources, as well as 199 unclassified and 218 unidentified sources. According to our analysis, the hard X-ray sky is mainly populated by Seyfert galaxies and blazars. For the blazar population, we report trends between the hard X-ray and the gamma-ray emissions based on the fact that a large fraction of them also have a counterpart detected by the Fermi satellite. These trends are all in agreement with the expectations of inverse Compton models which are widely adopted to explain the blazar broadband emission. For the Seyfert galaxies, we present the second version of the Turin-SyCAT, including a total of 633 Seyfert galaxies, with 282 new sources corresponding to an increase of ~80% with respect to the previous release. Comparing the hard X-ray and the infrared emissions of Seyfert galaxies, we confirm that there is no clear difference between the flux distribution of the infrared-to-hard X-ray flux ratio of Seyfert galaxies Type 1 and Type 2. However, there is a significant trend between the mid-IR flux and hard X-ray flux, confirming previous statistical results in the literature. Conclusions: We provide two catalog tables. The first is the revised version of the 3PBC catalog based on our multifrequency analyses. The second catalog table is a release of the second version of the Turin-SyCAT catalog. Finally, we highlight that extensive soft X-ray data are already available in the form of the Swift archive which can be used to search for potential counterparts of unidentified hard X-ray sources. All these datasets will be reduced and analyzed in a forthcoming analysis to determine the precise position of low-energy counterparts in the 0.5–10 keV energy range for 3PBC sources that can be targets of future optical spectroscopic campaigns; this is necessary to obtain their precise classification.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Survey: Optical identification and properties of galaxy clusters and groups in the western galactic hemisphere

The first SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Survey (eRASS1) provides the largest intracluster medium-selected galaxy cluster and group catalog covering the western Galactic hemisphere. Compared to samples selected purely on X-ray extent, the sample purity can be enhanced by identifying cluster candidates using optical and near-infrared data from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys. Using the red-sequence-based cluster findereROMaPPer, we measured individual photometric properties (redshiftz λ , richnessλ, optical center, and BCG position) for 12000 eRASS1 clusters over a sky area of 13 116 deg 2 , augmented by 247 cases identified by matching the candidates with known clusters from the literature. The median redshift of the identified eRASS1 sample isz= 0.31, with 10% of the clusters atz> 0.72. The photometric redshifts have an accuracy ofδz/(1 +z) ≲ 0.005 for 0.05 specand velocity dispersionσ) were measured a posteriori for a subsample of 3210 and 1499 eRASS1 clusters, respectively, using an extensive compilation of spectroscopic redshifts of galaxies from the literature. We infer that the primary eRASS1 sample has a purity of 86% and optical completeness >95% forz> 0.05. For these and further quality assessments of the eRASS1 identified catalog, we applied our identification method to a collection of galaxy cluster catalogs in the literature, as well as blindly on the full Legacy Surveys covering 24069 deg 2 . Using a combination of these cluster samples, we investigated the velocity dispersion-richness relation, finding that it scales with richness as log(λ norm ) = 2.401 × log(σ) − 5.074 with an intrinsic scatter ofδ in = 0.10 ± 0.01 dex. The primary product of our work is the identified eRASS1 cluster catalog with high purity and a well-defined X-ray selection process, opening the path for precise cosmological analyses presented in companion papers.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Interpolating individual line-of-sight neutron spectrometer measurements onto the “sky” at the National Ignition Facility (NIF)

Nuclear diagnostics provide measurements of inertial confinement fusion implosions used as metrics of performance for the shot. The interpretation of these measurements for shots with low mode asymmetries requires a way of combining the data to produce a “sky map” where the individual line-of-sight values are used to interpolate to other positions in the sky. These interpolations can provide information regarding the orientation of the low mode asymmetries. We describe the interpolation method, associated uncertainties, and correlations between different metrics, e.g., Tion, down scatter ratio, and hot-spot velocity direction. This work is also related to recently reported studies [H. G. Rinderknecht et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 124, 145002 (2020) and K. M. Woo et al., Phys. Plasmas 27, 062702 (2020)] of low mode asymmetries. We report an analysis that makes use of a newly commissioned line of sight, a scheme for incorporating multiple neutron spectrum measurement types, and recent work on the sources of implosion asymmetry to provide a more complete picture of implosion performance.

Hartouni, E. P. (ORCID:0000000198694351)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Curved-sky weak lensing mass map reconstruction

ABSTRACT We present reconstructed convergence maps, mass maps, from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) third year (Y3) weak gravitational lensing data set. The mass maps are weighted projections of the density field (primarily dark matter) in the foreground of the observed galaxies. We use four reconstruction methods, each is a maximum a posteriori estimate with a different model for the prior probability of the map: Kaiser–Squires, null B-mode prior, Gaussian prior, and a sparsity prior. All methods are implemented on the celestial sphere to accommodate the large sky coverage of the DES Y3 data. We compare the methods using realistic ΛCDM simulations with mock data that are closely matched to the DES Y3 data. We quantify the performance of the methods at the map level and then apply the reconstruction methods to the DES Y3 data, performing tests for systematic error effects. The maps are compared with optical foreground cosmic-web structures and are used to evaluate the lensing signal from cosmic-void profiles. The recovered dark matter map covers the largest sky fraction of any galaxy weak lensing map to date.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

The radio loudness of SDSS quasars from the LOFAR Two-metre Sky Survey: ubiquitous jet activity and constraints on star formation

ABSTRACT We examine the distribution of radio emission from ∼42 000 quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, as measured in the LOFAR Two-metre Sky Survey (LoTSS). We present a model of the radio luminosity distribution of the quasars that assumes that every quasar displays a superposition of two sources of radio emission: active galactic nuclei (jets) and star formation. Our two-component model provides an excellent match to the observed radio flux density distributions across a wide range of redshifts and quasar optical luminosities; this suggests that the jet-launching mechanism operates in all quasars but with different powering efficiency. The wide distribution of jet powers allows for a smooth transition between the ‘radio-quiet’ and ‘radio-loud’ quasar regimes, without need for any explicit bimodality. The best-fitting model parameters indicate that the star formation rate of quasar host galaxies correlates strongly with quasar luminosity and also increases with redshift at least out to z ∼ 2. For a model where star formation rate scales as $L_{\rm bol}^{\alpha } (1+z)^{\beta }$, we find α = 0.47 ± 0.01 and β = 1.61 ± 0.05, in agreement with far-infrared studies. Quasars contribute ≈0.15 per cent of the cosmic star formation rate density at z = 0.5, rising to 0.4 per cent by z ∼ 2. The typical radio jet power is seen to increase with both increasing optical luminosity and black hole mass independently, but does not vary with redshift, suggesting intrinsic properties govern the production of the radio jets. We discuss the implications of these results for the triggering of quasar activity and the launching of jets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

The local hole: a galaxy underdensity covering 90 per cent of sky to ≈200 Mpc

We investigate the ‘Local Hole’, an anomalous underdensity in the local galaxy environment, by extending our previous galaxy K-band number-redshift and number-magnitude counts to ≈90 per cent of the sky. Our redshift samples are taken from the 2MASS Redshift Survey (2MRS) and the 2M++ catalogues, limited to K < 11.5. We find that both surveys are in good agreement, showing an ≈21–22 per cent underdensity at z < 0.075 when compared to our homogeneous counts model that assumes the same luminosity function (LF) and other parameters as in our earlier papers. Using the Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS) for n(K) galaxy counts, we measure an underdensity relative to this model of 20±2 per cent at K < 11.5, which is consistent in both form and scale with the observed n(z) underdensity. To examine further the accuracy of the counts model, we compare its prediction for the fainter n(K) counts of the Galaxy and Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey. We further compare these data with a model assuming the parameters of a previous study where little evidence for the Local Hole was found. At 13 < K < 16, we find a significantly better fit for our galaxy counts model, arguing for our higher LF normalization. Although our implied underdensity of ≈20 per cent means local measurements of the Hubble Constant have been overestimated by ≈3 per cent, such a scale of underdensity is in tension with a global ΛCDM cosmology at an ≈3σ level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

OpenUniverse2024: a shared, simulated view of the sky for the next generation of cosmological surveys

The OpenUniverse2024 simulation suite is a cross-collaboration effort to produce matched simulated imaging for multiple surveys as they would observe a common simulated sky. Both the simulated data and associated tools used to produce it are intended to uniquely enable a wide range of studies to maximize the science potential of the next generation of cosmological surveys. We have produced simulated imaging for approximately 70 deg 2 of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Wide-Fast-Deep survey and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope High-Latitude Wide-Area Survey, as well as overlapping versions of the ELAIS-S1 Deep-Drilling Field for LSST and the High-Latitude Time-Domain Survey for Roman. OpenUniverse2024 includes (i) an early version of the updated extragalactic model called Diffsky, which substantially improves the realism of optical and infrared photometry of objects, compared to previous versions of these models; (ii) updated transient models that extend through the wavelength range probed by Roman and Rubin; and (iii) improved survey, telescope, and instrument realism based on up-to-date survey plans and known properties of the instruments. It is built on a new and updated suite of simulation tools that improves the ease of consistently simulating multiple observatories viewing the same sky. The approximately 400 TB of synthetic survey imaging and simulated universe catalogs are publicly available, and we preview some scientific uses of the simulations.

large-scale structure of Universe↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the nature of apparent transient sources on the National Geographic Society–Palomar Observatory Sky Survey glass copy plates

Abstract We examine critically recent claims for the presence of above-atmosphere optical transients in publicly available digitized scans of Schmidt telescope photographic plate material derived from the National Geographic Society–Palomar Observatory Sky Survey. We employ the publicly available SuperCOSMOS Sky Survey catalogues to examine statistically the morphology of the sources. We develop a simple, objective, and automated image classification scheme based on a random forest decision tree classifier. We find that the putative transients are likely to be spurious artefacts of the photographic emulsion. We suggest a possible cause of the appearance of these images as resulting from the copying procedure employed to disseminate glass copy survey atlas sets in the era before large-scale digitization programmes.

Hambly, N. C. (ORCID:0000000299019064)↗