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DOE OSTI2024

Can general circulation models (GCMs) represent cloud liquid water path adjustments to aerosol–cloud interactions?

Abstract. General circulation models (GCMs), unlike other lines of evidence, indicate that anthropogenic aerosols cause a global-mean increase in cloud liquid water path (ℒ) and thus a negative adjustment to radiative forcing of the climate by aerosol–cloud interactions. In part 1 of this series of papers, we showed that this is true even in models that reproduce the negative correlation observed in present-day internal variability in ℒ and cloud droplet number concentration (Nd). We studied several possible confounding mechanisms that could explain the noncausal cloud–aerosol correlations in GCMs and that possibly contaminate observational estimates of radiative adjustments. Here, we perform single-column and full-atmosphere GCM experiments to investigate the causal model-physics mechanisms underlying the model radiative adjustment estimate. We find that both aerosol–cloud interaction mechanisms thought to be operating in real clouds – precipitation suppression and entrainment evaporation enhancement – are active in GCMs and behave qualitatively in agreement with physical process understanding. However, the modeled entrainment enhancement has a negligible global-mean effect. This raises the question of whether the GCM estimate is incorrect due to parametric or base-state representation errors or whether the process understanding gleaned from a limited set of canonical cloud cases is insufficiently representative of the diversity of clouds in the real climate. Regardless, even at limited resolution, the GCM physics appears able to parameterize the small-scale microphysics–turbulence interplay responsible for the entrainment enhancement mechanism. We suggest ways to resolve tension between current and future (storm-resolving) global modeling systems and other lines of evidence in synthesis climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Orbital-Radar v1.0.0: a tool to transform suborbital radar observations to synthetic EarthCARE cloud radar data

The Earth Cloud, Aerosol and Radiation Explorer (EarthCARE) satellite developed by the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) launched in May 2024 carries a novel 94 GHz cloud profiling radar (CPR) with Doppler capability. This work describes the open-source instrument simulator Orbital-Radar, which transforms high-resolution radar data from field observations or forward simulations of numerical models to CPR primary measurements and uncertainties. The transformation accounts for sampling geometry and surface effects. We demonstrate Orbital-Radar's ability to provide realistic CPR views of typical cloud and precipitation scenes. The presented case studies show small-scale convection, marine stratus clouds, and Arctic mixed-phase cloud cases. These results provide valuable insights into the capabilities and challenges of the EarthCARE CPR mission and its advantages over the CloudSat CPR. Finally, Orbital-Radar allows for evaluating kilometre-scale numerical weather prediction models with EarthCARE CPR observations. So, Orbital-Radar can generate calibration and validation (Cal/Val) data sets already pre-launch. Nevertheless, an evaluation of synthetic CPR output data to accurate EarthCARE CPR data is missing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7

Abstract. Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. Consequently, the role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system continues to be of great interest. Recent simulations suggest the possibility of significant changes in both large-scale aspects of the ocean and atmospheric circulations and in the regional responses to climate change, as well as improvements in representations of small-scale processes and extremes, when resolution is enhanced. The first phase of the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP1) was successful at producing a baseline multi-model assessment of global simulations with model grid spacings of 25–50 km in the atmosphere and 10–25 km in the ocean, a significant increase when compared to models with standard resolutions on the order of 1° that are typically used as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments. In addition to over 250 peer-reviewed manuscripts using the published HighResMIP1 datasets, the results were widely cited in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and were the basis of a variety of derived datasets, including tracked cyclones (both tropical and extratropical), river discharge, storm surge, and impact studies. There were also suggestions from the few ocean eddy-rich coupled simulations that aspects of climate variability and change might be significantly influenced by improved process representation in such models. The compromises that HighResMIP1 made should now be revisited, given the recent major advances in modelling and computing resources. Aspects that will be reconsidered include experimental design and simulation length, complexity, and resolution. In addition, larger ensemble sizes and a wider range of future scenarios would enhance the applicability of HighResMIP. Therefore, we propose the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) to improve and extend the previous work, to address new science questions, and to further advance our understanding of the role of horizontal resolution (and hence process representation) in state-of-the-art climate simulations. With further increases in high-performance computing resources and modelling advances, along with the ability to take full advantage of these computational resources, an enhanced investigation of the drivers and consequences of variability and change in both large- and synoptic-scale weather and climate is now possible. With the arrival of global cloud-resolving models (currently run for relatively short timescales), there is also an opportunity to improve links between such models and more traditional CMIP models, with HighResMIP providing a bridge to link understanding between these domains. HighResMIP also aims to link to other CMIP projects and international efforts such as the World Climate Research Program lighthouse activities and various digital twin initiatives. It also has the potential to be used as training and validation data for the fast-evolving machine learning climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Idealized simulations of wind farm interactions with intermittent turbulence in stable boundary layer conditions

Stable atmospheric boundary layer conditions typically correspond to weak turbulence levels, but intermittent periods of elevated turbulence can occur during otherwise quiescent conditions. The interaction between intermittent turbulence and wind turbines is not well understood because of sparse observations, as well as the difficulty in realistically resolving small-scale turbulence during strongly stable conditions with numerical simulations. In this study, an explicit filtering and reconstruction approach for large-eddy simulation (LES) is used to simulate weakly and strongly stable conditions, with surface cooling rates of −0.2 and −2.0 K h −1 , respectively. This approach can sustain resolved background turbulence at relatively coarse grid spacing and stronger stratification compared to conventional closures, permitting more realistic intermittent stable boundary layer (SBL) turbulence. The idealized LES capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model is employed with turbine rotors parameterized using generalized actuator disks to examine (1) how the presence of turbine wakes affects SBL evolution and (2) the effect of intermittent turbulence on power production and wake recovery. Wakes increase mixing and deepen the SBL, with a stronger effect under strongly stable conditions, primarily because the SBL is shallower and closer to the top of the wind turbine rotor layer. Intermittent turbulence does not have a significant impact on mean power generation and wake recovery because the relevant intermittent turbulent structures in this study only affect the bottom half of the rotor disk. Power production is, however, more variable during periods of elevated turbulence, demonstrating the impact of SBL intermittency. This study uses an idealized configuration, focusing on LES model performance and physical understanding, with the goal of informing future simulations of the conditions observed during the American Wake Experiment.

Energy - Wind↗

DOE OSTI2026

PV Durability at Scale: Assessing Bifacial and TOPCon Field Performance

Recent field performance results of TOPCon and PERC Bifacial modules are presented based on small-scale deployments at NLR, and a selection of 3rd-party residential data. Bifacial PERC degradation rates are a median of -1 % / yr with bifacial TOPCon modules at a similar rate of -1.1 %/yr over the first couple of years. Comparable PERC Monofacial modules have a degradation rate of -0.5%/yr. Some TOPCon modules exhibited an indoor dark metastability effect which requires recovery by light soaking or UV exposure prior to IV curve measurement. Further monitoring is needed to confirm the long-term stability of TOPCon modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1953

Ignition Delays of Alkyl Thiophosphites with White and Red Fuming Nitric Acids Within Temperature Range 80 to -105 F

Ignition delays of alkyl thiophosphites were obtained in a modified open-cup apparatus and a small-scale rocket engine apparatus. At -40 F, mixed alkyl thiophosphites gave short delays with white fuming nitric acid containing 2 percent water and red fuming nitric acids of widely varying compositions. At -40 F and higher, triethyl trithiophosphite blended with as much as 40 percent n-heptane gave satisfactory self-igniting properties at temperatures as low as -76 F.

FUELS - PROPERTIES PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Effect of Flow on CO2 Corrosion of Self-Healing Metallic Coatings

Internal corrosion is an issue that affects natural gas pipelines, a significant part of the United States energy infrastructure. Over time, this corrosion has worn away longstanding pipelines due to the original construction materials used for the lines and impurities in the gas and liquid streams flowing through them. The main impurities in natural gas are H2O, CO2, H2S, and O2. One of the leading causes of corrosion is the CO2 dissolved in water, giving rise to carbonic acid formation, which can further dissolve the steel pipe. The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has been studying different solutions to this problem. One potential answer is a self-healing sacrificial metallic coating applied by a novel cold spray technique. Previous studies at NETL have shown that the zinc-rich self-healing coating can withstand corrosion through passivation and create a barrier to the diffusion of corrosive species. This study explored the impact of flow on corrosion with this coating and carbon steel when exposed to a saturated CO2 environment by simulating the pipeline flow profile in a small-scale lab setting. The samples were evaluated using multiple electrochemical techniques that found corrosion rates and were backed up with surface analysis to conclude the behavior of the corrosion mechanisms.

CO2 corrosion↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development and Preliminary Analysis of a U.S. Geothermal Heat Pump Installation Database

This paper seeks to addresses the significant gap in the literature regarding the installation and adoption of geothermal heat pump (GHP) systems in the United States. While the "2021 U.S. Geothermal Power Production and District Heating Market Report" published by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) focused on direct-use geothermal district heating systems, it did not include an analysis of GHP installations (Robins et al. 2021). To bridge this gap, NREL has compiled a novel database currently containing 70,470 records of GHP installations, primarily sourced from state well permits and small-scale studies. Our methodology emphasizes the collection, cleaning, and standardization of data, addressing challenges such as inconsistent reporting formats and privacy concerns. Despite limitations in data on capacity, costs, and performance, our preliminary geospatial analysis reveals insights into the distribution of GHP systems across urban and rural areas and climate zones. The paper highlights the importance of publicly accessible data for advancing GHP technology adoption with a discussion of existing data sources and their limitations, advocating for improved collaboration between NREL and industry stakeholders.

data collection↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measuring the Muon Neutrino Magnetic Moment in the NOvA Near Detector

Measuring an enhanced neutrino magnetic moment would be a clear indication of physics beyond the Standard Model, shedding light on the correct beyond Standard Model theory or the potential Majorana nature of neutrinos. It would manifest in the NOvA near detector as an excess of neutrino-on-electron elastic scattering interactions at low electron recoil energies. Leveraging an intense and highly pure muon neutrino beam, along with a finely segmented liquid scintillator detector technology specifically designed for electromagnetic shower separation, enables NOvA to achieve a potentially world-leading sensitivity in probing the effective muon neutrino magnetic moment. This analysis, based on neutrino data collected between 2014 and 2021, corresponding to an exposure of $13.8\times10^{20}$ protons-on-target, yields a result consistent with the Standard Model-only hypothesis with a p-value of 0.31. An upper limit on the effective muon neutrino magnetic moment is set at $\mu_{\nu_\mu}<19.1\times 10^{-10}\mu_B$ at $90\%$ confidence level. Despite facing statistical limitations stemming from low cross section of the signal process, systematic uncertainties have a significant impact on this result. To address these challenges, the NOvA Test Beam experiment focuses on mitigating some of the largest systematic uncertainties within NOvA by investigating particle interactions and energy deposition in a small-scale replica NOvA detector. This thesis describes the calibration of the NOvA Test Beam detector, which is a crucial step in analysing the Test Beam data before they can be utilised to reduce NOvA systematic uncertainties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A comparison of plastic and visco-plastic constitutive models for accurate predictions in PM-HIP

Powder metallurgy hot isostatic pressing (PM-HIP) is an advanced manufacturing process that can efficiently produce near net shape parts with high material utilization and uniform microstructures. While the PM-HIP process is used frequently to produce small-scale components, its application to large-scale components is still limited due to inadequate understanding of its complex processes that cause unpredictable post-HIP shape distortions. A computational model can be a cost-effective alternative to exhaustive experimentation required to understand the PM-HIP process fully. Therefore, we present a comparison of plastic and visco-plastic models that are frequently used to model the PM-HIP process. We show that the predictions of powder densification behavior and shape distortions obtained from both the models are similar under most conditions and agree well with experimental observations.

Sarkar, Subrato [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development of an In Situ Fission Gas Release Instrument for Fuel Sample Irradiations in the High Flux Isotope Reactor

Experimental measurement of gaseous fission product release with respect to temperature and burnup is a critical aspect of understanding nuclear fuel performance, validating predictive models, and qualifying new fuels. To measure this phenomenon in real-time, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has developed an instrument for measuring in situ fission gas release from small-scale fuel samples irradiated in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). The instrument uses a continuous flow of Heover the fuel samples to sweep gaseous fission products from a sealed capsule in the HFIR Be reflector to an instrument station adjacent to the reactor. The instrument station houses two high-purity germanium (HPGe) detectors that measure decay gamma rays from fission products passing through a room temperature dwell chamber placed over the detector crystal. The sealed capsules in the reactor are designed to modulate fuel sample temperatures between 700 and 1,100°C by changing the Ar/He gas mixture surrounding the capsules during irradiation. N-type thermocouples are incorporated into the capsule housing to record real-time fuel temperatures. The capsules are heated primarily by prompt gamma rays emitted from the HFIR core with minimal heat contributions from fission in the fuel samples to minimize temperature gradients in the specimens for separate-effects characterization of the material. This paper describes modeling of time-dependent nuclear heating and fission product formation in fuel samples, thermal characteristics of the in-core capsules, and expected gaseous fission product gamma spectra at the HPGe instrument station.

Mulligan, Padhraic L [ORNL] (ORCID:000000025826540↗

DOE OSTI2026

First constraints on causal sources of primordial gravitational waves from BICEP/Keck, SPTpol, SPT-3G, Planck and WMAP $B$-mode data

Non-inflationary sources of gravitational waves in the early Universe generically predict causality-limited tensor power spectra at low frequencies. We report the first-ever constraints on such sources based on cosmic microwave background (CMB) $B$-mode polarization measurements. Using data from BICEP/Keck, SPTpol, SPT-3G, Planck, and WMAP, we constrain the amplitude of an early causal tensor (ECT) power spectrum parameterized by $r_{ect}$, the ratio of causal tensor power to total scalar power at $k~=~0.01$ Mpc$^{-1}$, and obtain a 95% CL upper limit of $r_{ect}<$ 0.0077. Since $r_{ect}$ can easily be related to the parameters of a given theory, our bound robustly constrains a broad class of well-motivated gravitational wave sources in the early universe, including first-order cosmological phase transitions, enhanced small-scale density perturbations, and various topological defects. Finally, we translate our limit into a bound on the present-day energy density in gravitational waves at ultra-low frequencies otherwise inaccessible to traditional gravitational wave detection strategies, including pulsar timing arrays, interferometers, and resonant cavities.

Zebrowski, Jessica A. [Fermilab; Chicago U., KICP]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Cosmic Shear

We present legacy cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints using six years of Dark Energy Survey imaging data. From these data, we study ~140 million galaxies (8.29 galaxies/arcmin$^2$) that are 50% complete at i=24.0 and extend beyond z=1.2. We divide the galaxies into four redshift bins, and obtain cosmic shear measurement with a signal-to-noise of 83, a factor of 2 higher than the Year 3 analysis. We model the uncertainties due to shear and redshift calibrations, and discard measurements on small angular scales to mitigate baryon feedback and other small-scale uncertainties. We consider two fiducial models to account for the intrinsic alignment (IA) of the galaxies. We conduct a blind analysis in the context of the $Λ$CDM model and find $S_8 \equiv σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}=0.798^{+0.014}_{-0.015}$ (marginalized mean with 68% CL) when using the non-linear alignment model (NLA) and $S_{8} = 0.783^{+0.019}_{-0.015}$ with the tidal alignment and tidal torque model (TATT), providing 1.8% and 2.5% uncertainty on $S_8$. Compared to constraints from the cosmic microwave background from Planck 2018, ACT DR6 and SPT-3G DR1, we find consistency in the full parameter space at 1.1$σ$ (1.7$σ$) and in $S_8$ at 2.0$σ$ (2.3$σ$) for NLA (TATT). The result using the NLA model is preferred according to the Bayesian evidence. We find that the model choice for IA and baryon feedback can impact the value of our $S_8$ constraint up to $1σ$. For our fiducial model choices, the resultant uncertainties in $S_8$ are primarily degraded by the removal of scales, as well as the marginalization over the IA parameters. We demonstrate that our result is internally consistent and robust to different choices in calibrating the data, owing to methodological improvements in shear and redshift measurement, laying the foundation for next-generation cosmic shear programs.

Abbott, T. M.C. [Cerro-Tololo InterAmerican Obs.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Biconjugate Impedance Matching Control of the HERO WEC: Preprint

Effective control strategies are essential for maximizing the power output of wave energy converters (WECs). In this study, we explore the methodology of port-based modelling which can be used for bi-conjugate impedance matching, a type of reactive control that involves maximizing power transfer by setting the load (PTO) impedance to be the complex conjugate of the source impedance (WEC). Despite its foundational role in electrical engineering, this method has seen limited application in wave energy and has not yet been demonstrated in wave-powered desalination systems. We represent our complex multidisciplinary system as an equivalent circuit to explore frequency-based relations. The HERO WEC, a small-scale, modular point absorber (PA) designed for reverse osmosis desalination is used as a case study to demonstrate port-based modelling for control applications. Improving the performance of wave-powered water desalination systems could play a critical role in addressing freshwater scarcity for coastal communities, especially those in remote or disaster-prone regions.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implementation and Demonstration of the Digital Twin Certification System Remote Operations Framework

Microreactors are one promising advanced-reactor concept being pursued by the nuclear industry. They are distinguished by a relatively low power output of 20 MWth or less. These microreactors are intended for deployment in applications where conventional small-capacity power solutions, such as diesel generators, are either economically unfeasible or logistically challenging. Such applications include providing electric power and/or heat for remote communities, mining sites, defense installations, and humanitarian and disaster-relief missions. An important feature for the successful deployment of microreactors is their capability to be operated remotely. This capability can significantly reduce staffing costs by eliminating the need for licensed operators to be physically present at each reactor site. Instead, operators can be centralized in a single remote operations center placed in an economically advantageous location, thereby optimizing resources by consolidating expertise and enhancing operational efficiency. However, the implementation of a remote operation system for nuclear reactors raises new concerns regarding the security, reliability, and resilience of such a system. One way in which remote operations can be supported in a manner that maintains system security, reliability, and resilience is through the use of digital twins in a novel framework designed to verify and validate sensor data and commands communicated between the remote operations center and reactor. This framework, known as the Digital Twin Certification System (DTCS), has previously been proposed as an operations architecture that can bring security and resiliency levels of remote nuclear-reactor operations to a level acceptable for commercial deployment. This paper moves the proposed DTCS architecture from concept to reality by presenting the implementation and testing of the system. The rationale and implementation of the DTCS using tools such as DeepLynx and Apache Airflow, is covered in-depth. This is followed by a demonstration of the DTCS by applying the implemented system architecture to the Single Primary Heat Extraction and Removal Emulator, a small-scale non-nuclear test bed that emulates thermal behavior of a microreactor. The demonstration includes both normal and abnormal operating scenarios to highlight how the DTCS can increase the security, reliability, and resilience of a remote operations system.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implementation and Demonstration of the Digital Twin Certification System Remote Operations Framework

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Vibroacoustic Process Monitoring of 5-Stage Centrifugal Contactors

Vibroacoustic monitoring was investigated to aid in informing process operators with parameters regarding aqueous separation techniques. These techniques have a wide range of applications including nuclear fuel reprocessing. A small-scale solvent extraction system was set up with five magnetic drive contactors and two piston pumps to collect realistic operation. Vibration sensors were placed on three of the contactors and both pumps, and a microphone was placed near the system. Contactor rotational speed and pump flow rate were varied with known values to compare against measured vibroacoustic signatures. Spectral analysis allowed for the determination of contactor rotational speed and the ratio of organic to aqueous flow rate, an important parameter for ensuring optimal extraction. Vibration metrics such as kurtosis and crest factor provided additional details regarding individual rotational speeds and have potential in examination of faults for predictive maintenance. Overall, results indicate the capability of vibroacoustic monitoring to improve operator awareness and process outcomes.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing the GD-1 Stream with DESI DR2 Data: Thin Stream and Hot Cocoon

GD-1 is among the longest, coldest stellar streams in the Milky Way, making it an ideal target for probing dark matter substructure through dynamical heating. We present a catalog of 608 spectroscopically confirmed GD-1 members from the first three years of Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) observations. This constitutes the largest homogeneous spectroscopic sample of GD-1, doubling the number of members previously available only through heterogeneous compilations combining multiple surveys with different systematics. Using these data, we derive updated stream tracks in sky position, proper motion, and radial velocity that extend over $100^\circ$ of the stream. We apply a Gaussian mixture model to decompose the stream into a dynamically cold thin component ($Ï_V = 2.49\pm 0.28$ km s$^{-1}$, width $= 0.23\pm0.01^\circ$) and a kinematically hot cocoon ($Ï_V = 6.13\pm0.75$ km s$^{-1}$, width $= 2.18\pm0.17^\circ$). The cocoon contains $\sim30\%$ of members and its velocity dispersion is consistent with $\sim11$ Gyr of heating by cold dark matter subhalos. We also detect a large proper motion dispersion ($41.36\pm4.98$ km s$^{-1}$) along the stream direction in the cocoon component. This feature indicates a significant line-of-sight distance spread in the cocoon, and its origin will be further explored in a forthcoming paper. These measurements demonstrate the power of DESI spectroscopy for characterizing the multi-component phase-space structure of stellar streams and constraining small-scale dark matter substructure.

Jarvis, Emma [Toronto U.] (ORCID:0009000656127336)↗