Postclosure assessment modelling of a deep geologic repository for low and intermediate level radioactive waste in Ontario, Canada - 15145
In 2011, Ontario Power Generation (OPG) submitted an Environmental Impact Statement and a Preliminary Safety Report (PSR) to the federal authorities in Canada to support an application for a site preparation and construction licence for a Deep Geologic Repository (DGR) for low and intermediate level radioactive waste (L and ILW). The DGR, which is proposed to be located close to the existing Western Waste Management Facility (WWMF) at the Bruce nuclear site, would receive L and ILW arising from the operation and refurbishment of OPG's nuclear reactors; the wastes are currently stored safely at the WWMF. The PSR is supported by postclosure safety assessment modelling, including a total-systems level model implemented in the AMBER compartment modelling software that draws directly on detailed groundwater and coupled groundwater and gas modelling using the FRA3DVS-OPG and TOUGH2 codes. A full suite of calculation cases is managed within a single AMBER model, which aided efficient management of the calculation files and quality assurance. Assessment of expected/normal evolution cases results in maximum calculated effective doses to humans that are more than five orders of magnitude below associated criteria. Assessment of conservative disruptive and 'what if' scenarios results in maximum calculated doses that are higher than those for the normal evolution cases, but which, when the low likelihood of occurrence is taken into account, remain significantly below the associated risk criterion. The assessment demonstrates that deep geologic repositories can provide a safe disposal option and provides an example of evaluating the safety of projects on long time scales. It shows how results from detailed groundwater and gas codes can be incorporated into assessment-level codes such as AMBER, thereby providing a single systems model that can be used to efficiently evaluate a wide range of scenarios and associated calculation cases. (authors)