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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part I: Dynamical Downscaling

Abstract New simulations at 12-km grid spacing with the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model nested in the MPI Earth System Model (ESM) are used to quantify possible changes in wind power generation potential as a result of global warming. Annual capacity factors (CF; measures of electrical power production) computed by applying a power curve to hourly wind speeds at wind turbine hub height from this simulation are also used to illustrate the pitfalls in seeking to infer changes in wind power generation directly from low-spatial-resolution and time-averaged ESM output. WRF-derived CF are evaluated using observed daily CF from operating wind farms. The spatial correlation coefficient between modeled and observed mean CF is 0.65, and the root-mean-square error is 5.4 percentage points. Output from the MPI-WRF Model chain also captures some of the seasonal variability and the probability distribution of daily CF at operating wind farms. Projections of mean annual CF (CF A ) indicate no change to 2050 in the southern Great Plains and Northeast. Interannual variability of CF A increases in the Midwest, and CF A declines by up to 2 percentage points in the northern Great Plains. The probability of wind droughts (extended periods with anomalously low production) and wind bonus periods (high production) remains unchanged over most of the eastern United States. The probability of wind bonus periods exhibits some evidence of higher values over the Midwest in the 2040s, whereas the converse is true over the northern Great Plains. Significance Statement Wind energy is playing an increasingly important role in low-carbon-emission electricity generation. It is a “weather dependent” renewable energy source, and thus changes in the global atmosphere may cause changes in regional wind power production (PP) potential. We use PP data from operating wind farms to demonstrate that regional simulations exhibit skill in capturing actual power production. Projections to the middle of this century indicate that over most of North America east of the Rocky Mountains annual expected PP is largely unchanged, as is the probability of extended periods of anomalously high or low production. Any small declines in annual PP are of much smaller magnitude than changes due to technological innovation over the last two decades.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Black-box statistical prediction of lossy compression ratios for scientific data

Lossy compressors are increasingly adopted in scientific research, tackling volumes of data from experiments or parallel numerical simulations and facilitating data storage and movement. In contrast with the notion of entropy in lossless compression, no theoretical or data-based quantification of lossy compressibility exists for scientific data. Users rely on trial and error to assess lossy compression performance. As a strong data-driven effort toward quantifying lossy compressibility of scientific datasets, we provide a statistical framework to predict compression ratios of lossy compressors. Our method is a two-step framework where (i) compressor-agnostic predictors are computed and (ii) statistical prediction models relying on these predictors are trained on observed compression ratios. Proposed predictors exploit spatial correlations and notions of entropy and lossyness via the quantized entropy. We study 8+ compressors on 6 scientific datasets and achieve a median percentage prediction error less than 12%, which is substantially smaller than that of other methods while achieving at least a 8.8× speedup for searching for a specific compression ratio and 7.8× speedup for determining the best compressor out of a collection.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating deep neural networks with full-waveform inversion: Reparameterization, regularization, and uncertainty quantification

Full-waveform inversion (FWI) is an accurate imaging approach for modeling the velocity structure by minimizing the misfit between recorded and predicted seismic waveforms. However, the strong nonlinearity of FWI resulting from fitting oscillatory waveforms can trap the optimization in local minima. We have adopted a neural-network-based full-waveform inversion (NNFWI) method that integrates deep neural networks with FWI by representing the velocity model with a generative neural network. Neural networks can naturally introduce spatial correlations as regularization to the generated velocity model, which suppresses noise in the gradients and mitigates local minima. Furthermore, the velocity model generated by neural networks is input to the same partial differential equation (PDE) solvers used in conventional FWI. The gradients of the neural networks and PDEs are calculated using automatic differentiation, which back propagates gradients through the acoustic PDEs and neural network layers to update the weights of the generative neural network. Experiments on 1D velocity models, the Marmousi model, and the 2004 BP model determine that NNFWI can mitigate local minima, especially for imaging high-contrast features such as salt bodies, and it significantly improves the inversion in the presence of noise. Adding dropout layers to the neural network model also allows analyzing the uncertainty of the inversion results through Monte Carlo dropout. NNFWI opens a new pathway to combine deep learning and FWI for exploiting the characteristics of deep neural networks and the high accuracy of PDE solvers. Because NNFWI does not require extra training data and optimization loops, it provides an attractive and straightforward alternative to conventional FWI.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Laser damage of crazed electron-beam high-reflectors following infrared and ultraviolet irradiation in the nanosecond pulse regime

Laser damage of optical components can be a limiting factor in scaling the energetics of high-peak and average power laser systems. Specifically for optical coatings, damage under nanosecond pulsed irradiation is initiated by pre-existing defects in the coating layers, including those that cause discontinuities in the structure, like craze lines. Crazing or cracking in a multilayer dielectric optical coating is induced when the overall coating stress is sufficiently tensile, and is an occasionally observed issue when employing more porous deposition techniques like electron-beam evaporation. Here, in this study, electron-beam high-reflectors were fabricated utilizing process parameters that are known to induce crazing based on prior processing history to systematically evaluate the impact of crazing on reflector damage performance for 1064 and 355 nm lasers. The crazing that was observed was apparently nucleated at nodular defects. When the cross-section of these nodules was investigated, it was observed that there were cracks into the fused silica substrate of approximately 5 µm in depth. The craze lines were irradiated with 1064 and 355 nm light at fluences slightly above the onset of damage initiation fluence of the coating. The 1064 nm irradiated sub-apertures exhibit laser damage but with no spatial correlation with the craze line, whereas the 355 nm irradiated area exhibited many damage sites along the craze line. Finite-difference time-domain electric-field simulations were conducted, and ∼2× field amplification in hafnia was observed for the 355 nm wavelength case. The laser damage can be attributed to a slight electric-field intensification coincidental with an area where UV damage-prone precursors are known to occur. The 355 nm laser damage in uncoated fused silica substrates has been previously correlated to initiate through localized UV absorption at the broken silica bonds in the tips of fractures.

Harthcock, Colin [Lawrence Livermore National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-line FLEET by imaging periodic masks

A simple linear configuration for multi-line FLEET velocimetry is used for the first time to image an overexpanded unsteady supersonic jet. The FLEET lines are spaced 0.5-1.0 mm apart and up to six lines can simultaneously be used to visualize the flowfield. These lines are created using periodic masks, despite the mask blocking 25 — 30% of the 10 mJ incident beam. Maps of mean single-component velocity in the direction along the principal flow axis, and turbulence intensity in that same direction, are created using multi-line FLEET, and computed velocities agree well with that obtained from single-line (traditional) FLEET. Compared to traditional FLEET, multi-line FLEET offers increased simultaneous spatial coverage and the ability to produce spatial correlations in the streamwise direction. This FLEET permutation is especially well-suited for short-duration test facilities

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

A scalable variational method for estimating the latent infection-rate field of an outbreak

In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary erratically day-to-day; in contrast, daily case-counts used in contemporary surveillance algorithms are corrupted by reporting errors. The technical challenge lies in estimating the latent infection-rate from case-counts. Here we devise a Bayesian method to estimate the infection-rate across multiple adjoining areal units, and then use it, via an anomaly detector, to discern a change in epidemiological dynamics. We extend an existing model for estimating the infection-rate in an areal unit by incorporating a Markov random field model, so that we may estimate infection-rates across multiple areal units, while preserving spatial correlations observed in the epidemiological dynamics. To carry out the high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem, we develop an implementation of mean-field variational inference specific to the infection model and integrate it with the random field model to incorporate correlations across counties. The method is tested on estimating the COVID-19 infection-rates across all 33 counties in New Mexico using data from the summer of 2020, and then employing them to detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave. We perform the detection using a temporal algorithm that is applied county-by-county. We also show how the infection-rate field can be used to cluster counties with similar epidemiological dynamics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Oxygen isotope evidence for input of magmatic fluids and precipitation of Au-Ag-tellurides in an otherwise ordinary adularia-sericite epithermal system in NE China

Abstract Tellurium-rich (Te) adularia-sericite epithermal Au-Ag deposits are an important current and future source of precious and critical metals. However, the source and evolution of ore-forming fluids in these deposits are masked by traditional bulk analysis of quartz oxygen isotope ratios that homogenize fine-scale textures and growth zones. To advance understanding of the source of Te and precious metals, herein, we use petrographic and cathodoluminescence (CL) images of such textures and growth zones to guide high spatial resolution secondary ion mass spectroscopy (SIMS) oxygen isotope analyses (10 µm spot) and spatially correlated fluid inclusion microthermometric measurements on successive quartz bands in contemporary Te-rich and Te-poor adularia-sericite (-quartz) epithermal Au-Ag vein deposits in northeastern China. The results show that large positive oxygen isotope shifts from –7.1 to +7.7‰ in quartz rims are followed by precipitation of Au-Ag telluride minerals in the Te-rich deposit, whereas small oxygen isotope shifts of only 4‰ (–2.2 to +1.6‰) were detected in quartz associated with Au-Ag minerals in the Te-poor deposits. Moreover, fluid-inclusion homogenization temperatures are higher in comb quartz rims (avg. 266.4 to 277.5 °C) followed by Au-Ag telluride minerals than in previous stages (~250 °C) in the Te-rich deposit. The Te-poor deposit has a consistent temperature (~245 °C) in quartz that pre- and postdates Au-Ag minerals. Together, the coupled increase in oxygen isotope ratios and homogenization temperatures followed by precipitation of Au-Ag tellurides strongly supports that inputs of magmatic fluid containing Au, Ag, and Te into barren meteoric water-dominated flow systems are critical to the formation of Te-rich adularia-sericite epithermal Au-Ag deposits. In contrast, Te-poor adularia-sericite epithermal Au-Ag deposits show little or no oxygen isotope or fluid-inclusion evidence for inputs of magmatic fluid.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Addressing Experimental Challenges in Probing Dark Energy with Accuracy and Precision with the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space & Time (LSST)

With support from this award, the Stanford group under the leadership of PI Patricia Burchat focused on pixel-level algorithms that are key to the investigation of dark energy with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). The work was carried out through strong engagement in the DOE-supported LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC), for which the PI served as Deputy Spokesperson (07/2019 - 07/2021) and Technical Coordinator (07/2021 - 07/2023). Members of the Burchat group are Full DESC members and are among scientists who have been accepted to join the Rubin Observatory System Integration, Test, and Commissioning (SIT-Com) effort. The specific intellectual focus of the group was the optimization of gravitational lensing as a probe of the evolution of the distribution of dark matter in space and time to learn about the nature of dark energy. The Stanford group pursued an integrated research program to understand in detail, and then remediate or calibrate, systematic effects that could limit the sensitivity of the LSST to cosmic shear as a dark energy probe -- particularly those related to our understanding of the atmospheric point spread function (PSF), challenges associated with blended galaxy images, and impacts of residual camera artifacts. Key to this work was developing, enhancing, and validating the fidelity of simulations that play a key role in the development of our understanding of subtle systematic biases and then using these simulations to develop techniques to characterize and mitigate biases, and associated algorithms for implementation in the LSST or DESC science pipelines. The group’s work included contributions to the open-source GalSim simulation package, which is widely used in the community; simulations and studies of spatial correlations of atmospheric PSFs; studies of temporal correlations of the atmospheric PSF; impacts of chromatic PSFs on cosmic shear calibration; continued studies of anisotropic Gaussian process interpolation of PSF models across the focal plane; and measuring and mitigating impacts of residual camera artifacts on cosmic shear. A primary impact of this work is that it increases the scientific discovery potential of the DOE and NSF investments in the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space \& Time, by addressing challenges in interpreting astronomical images through more accurate descriptions of the blurring of images due to the atmosphere. Specifically, this work impacts our ability to understand the fundamental nature of dark energy.

Burchat, Patricia Rose↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Investigation of Supernova Neutrino Detection Backgrounds in MicroBooNE

MicroBooNE provides a testbed for studying MeV-scale activity relevant to supernova neutrino detection in LArTPCs. This work focuses on classifying isolated mm-scale energy depositions ( blips ), in contrast to longer track depositions with lengths of ~O(10cm), as possible νₑ CC or elastic scatter candidates from a supernova burst. Cosmogenic blip backgrounds are characterized using CRT-tagged muons and spatial correlations with decay products. Selection cuts are defined for rejecting Tl-208 decay radiogenic blip backgrounds and cosmogenic blip backgrounds; they are based on blip energy and distance from nearby cosmic muon tracks. Results affirm strategies for background rejection and signal efficiency in future low-energy searches, including DUNE.

Binau, Amelia [Indiana U.]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integration of Soft Data Into Geostatistical Simulation of Categorical Variables

Uncertain or indirect “soft” data, such as geologic interpretation, driller’s logs, geophysical logs or imaging, offer potential constraints or “soft conditioning” to stochastic models of discrete categorical subsurface variables in hydrogeology such as hydrofacies. Previous bivariate geostatistical simulation algorithms have not fully addressed the impact of data uncertainty in formulation of the (co) kriging equations and the objective function in simulated annealing (or quenching). This paper introduces the geostatistical simulation code tsim-s, which accounts for categorical data uncertainty through a data “hardness” parameter. In generating geostatistical realizations with tsim-s, the uncertainty inherent to soft conditioning is factored into both 1) the data declustering and spatial correlation functions in cokriging and 2) the acceptance probability for change of category in simulated quenching. The degree or sensitivity to which soft data conditions a realization as a function of hardness can be quantified by mapping category probabilities derived from multiple realizations. In addition to point or borehole data, arrays of data (e.g., as derived from a depth-dependency function, probability map, or “prior realization”) can be used as soft conditioning. The tsim-s algorithm provides a theoretically sound and general framework for integrating datasets of variable location, resolution, and uncertainty into geostatistical simulation of categorical variables. A practical example shows how tsim-s is capable of generating a large-scale three-dimensional simulation including curvilinear features.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced Multi-Dimensional Inversion Through Target-Specific Inversion Parameter Bounds With an Application to Crosswell Electromagnetic for Sequestration Monitoring

In geophysical inversions, lower and upper model parameter bounds are a means of solution stabilization. Further, constraints that intend to let only geologically plausible inverse solutions pass are amenable to lower and upper bounds. Reliable prior information is paramount to construct such bound constraints. It is common practice to narrow and widen bound intervals for regions of, respectively, more and less certain prior information. Contrary to this practice, we experiment with widened bound intervals in zones that are poorly resolved by a given survey configuration but where prior information would suggest structural anomalies of interest. The purpose of enlarged parameter bounds that correlate spatially with predefined targets is to let the inversion explore a larger solution space, thus increasing the potential to resolve otherwise hidden anomalies. Application of the method is based on a carbon-sequestration baseline (pre-injection) crosswell electromagnetic (EM) field survey at the Containment and Monitoring Institute Field Research Station (Alberta, Canada), where impeded measurements led to generally reduced sensitivities for the interwell region. Synthetic-data proofs of concept use augmented bounds designed to boost the resolution of artificial plume targets, indicating an enhanced illumination compared to constant bounds. Comparative field data inversions with spatially variable bounds constructed from prior resistivity and velocity information highlight non-horizontal baseline structures.

3-D electrical resistivity imaging↗
DOE OSTI2022

Digital Twins for Materials

Digital twins are emerging as powerful tools for supporting innovation as well as optimizing the in-service performance of a broad range of complex physical machines, devices, and components. A digital twin is generally designed to provide accurate in-silico representation of the form (i.e., appearance) and the functional response of a specified (unique) physical twin. This paper offers a new perspective on how the emerging concept of digital twins could be applied to accelerate materials innovation efforts. Specifically, it is argued that the material itself can be considered as a highly complex multiscale physical system whose form (i.e., details of the material structure over a hierarchy of material length) and function (i.e., response to external stimuli typically characterized through suitably defined material properties) can be captured suitably in a digital twin. Accordingly, the digital twin can represent the evolution of structure, process, and performance of the material over time, with regard to both process history and in-service environment. This paper establishes the foundational concepts and frameworks needed to formulate and continuously update both the form and function of the digital twin of a selected material physical twin. The form of the proposed material digital twin can be captured effectively using the broadly applicable framework of n-point spatial correlations, while its function at the different length scales can be captured using homogenization and localization process-structure-property surrogate models calibrated to collections of available experimental and physics-based simulation data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seroprevalence and risk factors for brucellosis amongst livestock and humans in a multi-herd ranch system in Kagera, Tanzania

Background Brucellosis remains a significant health and economic challenge for livestock and humans globally. Despite its public health implications, the factors driving the endemic persistence ofBrucellaat the human-livestock interface in Tanzania remain poorly elucidated. This study aimed to identify the seroprevalence ofBrucellainfection in livestock and humans within a ranching system and determine associated risk factors for disease endemicity. Methods A cross-sectional sero-epidemiological study was conducted in 2023 in Tanzania’s Karagwe District, involving 725 livestock (cattle, goats, sheep) from 10 herds and 112 humans from associated camps. Seroprevalence was assessed using competitive ELISA while epidemiological data were collected via questionnaires. Generalized Linear Models and Contrast Analysis were used to identify risk factors for infection. Results Overall seroprevalence was 34% in livestock and 41% in humans. Goats exhibited the highest prevalence (69.2%), while cattle had the lowest (22.6%). Mixed-species herds (Odds Ratio, OR = 2.96, CI [1.90–4.60]) and small ruminants-only herds (OR = 6.54, CI [3.65–11.72]) showed a significantly higher risk of seropositivity compared to cattle-only herds. Older cattle (OR = 5.23, CI [2.70–10.10]) and lactating females (OR = 2.87, CI [1.78–4.63]) represented significant risks for brucellosis in livestock. In humans, close contact with animals (OR = 7.20, CI [1.97–36.31]) and handling animals during parturition or aborted fetuses (OR = 2.37, CI [1.01–5.58]) were significant risk factors. Notably, no spatial association was found in seroprevalence between herds and nearby human communities. Conclusion The lack of spatial correlation between livestock and human seroprevalence suggests complex transmission dynamics, potentially involving endemic circulation in livestock and human infections from multiple sources of exposure to livestock. This study highlights the need for comprehensive zoonotic risk education and targeted intervention strategies. Further research is crucial to elucidate transmission pathways and improveBrucellainfection control. This includes developing robust methods for identifying infective species and implementing effective strategies to mitigateBrucellainfection in endemic regions.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the Impact of Redox Potential on the Corrosion of Q125, 316L, and C276 Steel in Low-Temperature Geothermal Systems

Time series experiments were used to explore the fluid redox impact on the corrosion of Q125, 316L, and C276 steels in low-ionic-strength and neutral water at temperature and pressure conditions associated with low-temperature geothermal systems. After exposing polished samples of each steel grade to an oxidizing (H2O2) and a reducing (Zn-doped) fluid for intervals of 24 h, 1 week, and 6 weeks, the atomic force microscopy results revealed general corrosion for Q125, while 316L and C276 exhibited pitting, crevice expansion, and edge attack corrosion. Secondary depositional features are frequently found as topographic highs, adjacent to pitting corrosion. These features may be identified as there is a very strong spatial correlation between the height retrace and phase retrace surface maps. All steels became progressively rougher over time after exposure to both fluids, while the corrosion rates were more complex. Samples exposed to the reducing fluid experienced an increase in the corrosion rate over time, while C276 and 316L experienced a decrease in the corrosion rate. Finally, a novel data validation technique was developed to address the intrinsic scalability of corrosion. The results indicate that the AFM scan area does not affect the measured surface roughness over nearly three orders of magnitude.

Bowman, Samuel (ORCID:000000021510174X)↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Effect of Periodic Spatial Perturbations on the Emission Rates of Quantum Dots near Graphene Platforms

The quenching of fluorescence (FL) at the vicinity of conductive surfaces and, in particular, near a 2-D graphene layer has become an important biochemical sensing tool. The quenching is attributed to fast non-radiative energy transfer between a chromophore (here, a Quantum Dot, QD) and the lossy graphene layer. Increased emission rate is also observed when the QD is coupled to a resonator. Here, we combine the two effects in order to control the emission lifetime of the QD. In our case, the resonator was defined by an array of nano-holes in the oxide substrate underneath a graphene surface guide. At resonance, the surface mode of the emitted radiation is concentrated at the nano-holes. Thus, the radiation of QD at or near the holes is spatially correlated through the hole-array’s symmetry. We demonstrated an emission rate change by more than 50% as the sample was azimuthally rotated with respect to the polarization of the excitation laser. In addition to an electrical control, such control over the emission lifetime could be used to control Resonance Energy Transfer (RET) between two chromophores.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Young Massive Star Cluster Westerlund 2 Observed with MUSE. III. A Cluster in Motion—The Complex Internal Dynamics

Analyzing the dynamical state of nearby young massive star clusters is essential for understanding star cluster formation and evolution during their earliest stages. In this work we analyze the stellar and gas kinematics of the young massive star cluster Westerlund 2 (Wd2) using data from the integral field unit Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer (MUSE) and complement them with proper motions from the Gaia DR2. The mean gas radial velocity of 15.9 km s{sup −1} agrees with the assumption that Wd2 is the result of a cloud–cloud collision. The gas motions show the expansion of the H ii region, driven by the radiation from the many OB stars in the cluster center. The velocity profile of the cluster member stars reveals an increasing velocity dispersion with decreasing stellar mass and that the low-mass stars show five distinct velocity groups. Based on their spatial correlation with the cluster’s two clumps, we concluded that this is the imprint of the initial cloud collapse that formed Wd2. A thorough analysis of the dynamical state of Wd2, which determines a dynamical mass range of M {sub dyn,Wd2} = (7.5 ± 1.9) × 10{sup 4} − (4.4 ± 1.1) × 10{sup 5} M {sub ⊙} and exceeds the photometric mass by at least a factor of two, leads to the conclusion that Wd2 is not massive enough to remain gravitationally bound. Additionally we also identify 22 runaway candidates with peculiar velocities between 30 and 546 km s{sup −1}.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

VERITAS and Multiwavelength Observations of the Blazar B3 2247+381 in Response to an IceCube Neutrino Alert

While the sources of the diffuse astrophysical neutrino flux detected by the IceCube Neutrino Observatory are still largely unknown, one of the promising methods to improve our understanding of them is investigating the potential temporal and spatial correlations between neutrino alerts and the electromagnetic radiation from blazars. We report on the multiwavelength target-of-opportunity observations of the blazar B3 2247+381, taken in response to an IceCube multiplet alert for a cluster of muon neutrino events compatible with the source location between 2022 May 20 and 2022 November 10. B3 2247+381 was not detected with VERITAS during this time period. The source was found to be in a low-flux state in the optical, ultraviolet, and gamma-ray bands for the time interval corresponding to the neutrino event, but was detected in the hard X-ray band with NuSTAR during this period. We find the multiwavelength spectral energy distribution is described well using a simple one-zone leptonic synchrotron self-Compton radiation model. Moreover, assuming the neutrinos originate from hadronic processes within the jet, the neutrino flux would be accompanied by a photon flux from the cascade emission, and the integrated photon flux required in such a case would significantly exceed the total multiwavelength fluxes and the VERITAS upper limits presented here. The lack of flaring activity observed with VERITAS, combined with the low multiwavelength flux levels, as well as the significance of the neutrino excess being at a 3σ level (uncorrected for trials), makes B3 2247+381 an unlikely source of the IceCube multiplet. We conclude that the neutrino excess is likely a background fluctuation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Unified Model of Cosmic-Ray Propagation and Radio Extreme Scattering Events from Intermittent Interstellar Structures

Intermittent magnetic structures are a plausible candidate for explaining cosmic-ray (CR) diffusion rates derived from observed CR energy spectra. Independently, studies of extreme scattering events (ESEs) of radio quasars and pulsar scintillation have hinted that very straight, large aspect ratio magnetic current sheets may be responsible for the localized large scattering of radio waves. The required shortest axis of the typical structures producing ESEs is of the same scale (∼au) as the gyroradii of ∼GeV CRs. In this Letter, we propose that the same magnetic/density sheets can produce large scattering of both CRs and radio waves. We demonstrate that the geometry and volume-filling factor of the sheets derived from quasar ESEs can explain the observed mean free path of GeV CRs without introducing free parameters. The model places constraints on the sheet geometry, such as straightness and large aspect ratio, and assumes that the statistics of the sheets are similar throughout the Galactic volume. We therefore discuss observational tests of the sheet model, which includes observations of echoes in pulsars and fast radio bursts, gravitationally lensed quasars, the distribution of ESE durations, and spatial correlations between ESE events and rotation measure fluctuations. Such tests will be enabled by upcoming wide-field radio instruments, including the Canadian Hydrogen Observatory and Radio-transient Detector and Deep Synoptic Array 2000 Antennas.

Kempski, Philipp [Princeton Univ., NJ (United Stat↗