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DOE OSTI2023

Local Bayesian Dirichlet mixing of imperfect models

Abstract To improve the predictability of complex computational models in the experimentally-unknown domains, we propose a Bayesian statistical machine learning framework utilizing the Dirichlet distribution that combines results of several imperfect models. This framework can be viewed as an extension of Bayesian stacking. To illustrate the method, we study the ability of Bayesian model averaging and mixing techniques to mine nuclear masses. We show that the global and local mixtures of models reach excellent performance on both prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification and are preferable to classical Bayesian model averaging. Additionally, our statistical analysis indicates that improving model predictions through mixing rather than mixing of corrected models leads to more robust extrapolations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Caution on Using Tetrahydrofuran for Processing Crystalline Silica Samples From Engineered Stone for XRD Analysis

Abstract We conducted laboratory experiments to investigate a suspected effect of tetrahydrofuran (THF) on quantifying crystalline silica in samples collected from working with engineered stone when THF is used to process samples prior to the X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis. Two groups of samples from grinding either engineered stone or granite were simultaneously taken from a laboratory testing system, with one group of samples using THF for processing and another group using muffle furnace for ashing. For each stone type, we also tested four levels of respirable dust loading on the samples by varying the grinding time from 1 to 8 min. Statistical analysis of the experimental results on crystalline silica contents of the two groups of samples showed that the difference between the two methods was not significant (P ≥ 0.05) for the granite at all four levels of respirable dust loading and for the engineered stone at the two levels of respirable dust loading greater than 0.5 mg. However, the crystalline silica content from using THF processing was significantly lower (P = 0.001) than that from using muffle furnace ashing for engineered stone when the respirable dust loading levels were less than 0.5 mg. For the engineered stone dust samples with grinding times of 1 and 2 min, the average respirable dust loading was about 0.19 and 0.34 mg, respectively; while the crystalline silica content from using THF processing was 30.9 and 21.5% lower than that from using muffle furnace ashing, respectively. Since most full-shift samples from field assessments in this industry are expected to have respirable dust loading less than 0.5 mg, muffle furnace or radio frequency plasma ashing should be specified as the preferred sample processing method instead of the THF processing method for quantification of crystalline silica when engineered stone is expected to present to avoid artificially reduced silica content values, which are likely caused by the reactions between THF and the resins in engineered stone.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigation of 3D printed lightweight hybrid composites via theoretical modeling and machine learning

Hybrid composites combine two or more different fillers to achieve multifunctional or advanced material properties, such as lightweight and enhanced mechanical properties. The properties of the composites significantly depend on their microstructures, which can be tailored via advanced 3D printing processes. Understanding the process-structure-property relationships is critical to enable the design and engineering of novel hybrid composites for applications in aerospace, automotive, and protective coatings. Here, for this work, we develop 3D printable and lightweight hybrid composites and leverage the conventional design of experiments, a theoretical hybrid model, and an image-driven machine learning (ML) method to investigate their mechanical behaviors. The hybrid composites are formulated with elastomer matrix, microfillers, and thin-shell particles, enabling a significant degree of design freedom of microstructures with densities and mechanical properties varying up to 70% and 91%, respectively. Our statistical analysis indicates that the 3D printing path direction and the microfibers fraction are dominating process parameters with contribution percentages of 45.3% and 57.7% on the specific stiffness and strength, respectively. A hybrid mechanics model is developed based on a simple Weibull distribution function and classical single-filler models to effectively capture the variations in mechanical properties, however, it overestimates the values due to its statistical constraints and idealization of experimental uncertainty. The image-driven ML model leverages the microscale images directly without losing the structural details, shows more accurate predictions with experimental data, and has 48.6% lower root mean square error than the theoretical model.

3D printing↗

DOE OSTI2021

Intermittent Frontogenesis in the Alboran Sea

Abstract We present a phenomenological description and dynamical analysis of the Alboran fronts using a realistic simulation at submesoscale resolution. The study is focused on east Alboran fronts emerging within relatively strong flows that separate from the Spanish coast into the basin interior. Despite modest lateral shifting associated with the position of the Alboran anticyclonic gyres and variations in intensity, these fronts present a similar structure and dynamical configuration as the climatological Almeria–Oran front. The statistical analysis of our solution shows that strained-induced frontogenesis is a recurrent submesoscale mechanism associated with these fronts, and the process is assessed in terms of the advective Lagrangian frontogenetic tendencies associated with buoyancy and velocity horizontal gradients. Intermittency in their strength and patterns is indicative of high variability in the occurrence of active frontogenesis in association with the secondary (overturning) circulation across the frontal gradient. As a result, we find many episodes with strong surface fronts that do not have much associated downwelling. Frontogenesis and the associated secondary circulation are further explored during two particular frontal events, both showing strong downwelling of (1) cm s −1 extending down into the pycnocline. A frontogenetic contribution of turbulent vertical momentum mixing to the secondary circulation is identified in the easternmost region during the cold season, when the dynamics are strongly influenced by the intrusion of the salty Northern Current. The background vertical velocity fields observed during the analyzed events indicate other currents in the submesoscale range, including tidal and topographic internal waves.

Capó, Esther↗

DOE OSTI2023

Chemical controls on the propagation and healing of subcritical fractures

Human activities involving subsurface reservoirs—resource extraction, carbon and nuclear waste storage—alter thermal, mechanical, and chemical steady-state conditions in these systems. Because these systems exist at lithostatic pressures, even minor chemical changes can cause chemically assisted deformation. Therefore, understanding how chemical effects control geomechanical properties is critical to optimizing engineering activities. The grand challenge in predicting the effect of chemical processes on mechanical properties lays in the fact that these phenomena take place at molecular scales, while they manifest all the way to reservoir scales. To address this fundamental challenge, we investigated chemical effects on deformation in model and real systems spanning molecular- to centimeter scales. We used theory, experiment, molecular dynamics simulation, and statistical analysis to (1) identify the effect of simple reactions, such as hydrolysis, on molecular structures in interfacial regions of stressed geomaterials; (2) quantify chemical effects on the bulk mechanical properties, fracture and displacement for granular rocks and single crystals; (3) develop initial understanding of universal scaling for individual displacement events in layered geomaterials; and (4) develop analytic approximations for the single-chain mechanical response utilizing asymptotically correct statistical thermodynamic theory. Taken together, these findings advance the challenging field of chemo-mechanics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exact quantum scars in the chiral nonlinear Luttinger liquid

While the chiral linear Luttinger liquid is integrable via bosonization, its nonlinear counterpart does not admit for an analytic solution. In this work, we find a subextensive number of exact eigenstates for a large family of density-density interaction terms. These states are embedded in a continuum of strongly correlated excited states. The real-space entanglement entropy of some exact states scales logarithmically with system size while that of others has volume-law scaling. We introduce momentum-space entanglement as an unambiguous differentiator between these exact states and the remaining excited states. With regard to momentum space, the exact states behave as bona fide quantum many-body scars: they exhibit identically zero momentum-space entanglement, while typical eigenstates behave thermally. We corroborate this finding by a level statistics analysis. Here we detail the general formalism for systematically finding all interaction terms and associated exact states, and present a number of infinite exact state sequences extending to arbitrarily high energies. Unlike many previous examples of quantum many-body scars, the exact states uncovered here do not lie at equidistant energies and do not follow from a special operator algebra. Instead, they are uniquely enabled by the interplay of Fermi statistics and chirality.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Demonstrating the viability of Lagrangian in situ reduction on supercomputers

Performing exploratory analysis and visualization of large-scale time-varying computational science applications is challenging due to inaccuracies that arise from under-resolved data. In recent years, Lagrangian representations of the vector field computed using in situ processing are being increasingly researched and have emerged as a potential solution to enable exploration. However, prior works have offered limited estimates of the encumbrance on the simulation code as they consider “theoretical” in situ environments. Further, the effectiveness of this approach varies based on the nature of the vector field, benefitting from an in-depth investigation for each application area. With this study, an extended version of Sane et al. (2021), we contribute an evaluation of Lagrangian analysis viability and efficacy for simulation codes executing at scale on a supercomputer. We investigated previously unexplored cosmology and seismology applications as well as conducted a performance benchmarking study by using a hydrodynamics mini-application targeting exascale computing. Here, to inform encumbrance, we integrated in situ infrastructure with simulation codes, and evaluated Lagrangian in situ reduction in representative homogeneous and heterogeneous HPC environments. To inform post hoc accuracy, we conducted a statistical analysis across a range of spatiotemporal configurations as well as a qualitative evaluation. Additionally, our study contributes cost estimates for distributed-memory post hoc reconstruction. In all, we demonstrate viability for each application — data reduction to less than 1% of the total data via Lagrangian representations, while maintaining accurate reconstruction and requiring under 10% of total execution time in over 90% of our experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stability analysis of Alfvén eigenmodes excited by ion cyclotron resonance heating on EAST

Alfvén wave instabilities driven by energetic particles are common in fusion devices. Understanding their behavior is essential for the good confinement of fusion plasma. For this purpose, a series of experiments are performed on EAST to investigate the excitation of toroidal Alfvén eigenmodes (TAEs). Experimentally, it was found that AEs with frequencies around 80, 134, 157 kHz are excited by ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH) hydrogen minority heating scenario. Moreover, the excitation of AEs is independent of the wall-coating materials, but determined with the generation and confinement of the fast ions. Statistical analysis suggests that the TAEs can only be excited when the ICRH power is larger than 2 MW and the H 98 factor is larger than 1.15. In line with the experiments, a set of simulations using TORIC, ASCOT, and NOVA-C is performed. The simulation results show that with the experimental density profile and safety factor, the measured TAE with frequency of 134 kHz is well reproduced by taking into account the plasma toroidal rotation frequency. However, the appearance of the 80 kHz mode cannot be captured in the simulations. The ICRH-generated fast hydrogen ions mainly have banana orbits and that their perpendicular velocity is much larger than that of the parallel ions. The stability analysis with NOVA-C suggests that the radial gradient of the fast H ion distribution is the only driving source of TAEs. For TAEs locate in the center of Alfvén continuum, the D ion Landau damping is the dominant damping term; For most other TAEs which have intersections with the continuum boundary, the continuum damping becomes the dominant damping mechanism.

Alfvén eigenmodes↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measuring quasiparticle dynamics for particle impact reconstruction in a superconducting qubit chip

Quasiparticle poisoning following particle impacts poses a significant challenge to the development of fault-tolerant superconducting quantum computers, as a sudden excess of quasiparticles can simultaneously degrade the coherence of multiple qubits across large device arrays. In this work, we present a statistical analysis that models the time evolution of radiation-induced qubit energy relaxation through quasiparticle density dynamics. This study provides insight into quasiparticle loss processes by distinguishing between recombination and trapping decay channels and assessing their respective impact on qubit performance. We precisely measure quasiparticle recombination in multiple transmon qubits and uncover an unexpected dependence of qubit relaxation dynamics on deposited energy. By linking correlated relaxation events across qubits to ballistic phonon propagation, we introduce a statistical localization approach to extract the energy deposited in the substrate, which is in good agreement with Monte Carlo simulation. This work establishes the quantitative framework for using an arbitrary subset of superconducting transmon qubits in a QPU as energy-resolving witness particle detectors.

Celi, E. [Northwestern U.]↗

DOE OSTI2020

Solvent Hold Tank Sample Results for MCU-19-366- 367-368 (April 2019), MCU-19-469-470-471 (May 2019), MCU-19-524-525-526 (June 2019): Quarterly Report

A trend summary of three sets of Solvent Hold Tank (SHT) monthly samples MCU-19-366-367-368 (April), MCU-19-469-470-471 (May), and MCU-19-524-525-526 (June) are reported. Most of the conclusions are based on the June SHT sample (MCU-19-524-525-526). Analyses of the June SHT sample (MCU-19-524- 525-526) indicated that the Modifier (Cs-7SB) and the Extractant (MaxCalix) concentrations were below their nominal recommended concentrations (169,000 mg/L and 46,900 mg/L respectively) by 4% and 2% respectively but consistent with previously observed levels during normal runs. The Suppressor (N,N’,N”– tris(3,7-dimethyloctyl)guanidine or TiDG) concentration has decreased since the March 2019 measurement to 793 mg/L, which is above the minimum recommended concentration (479 mg/L). The Semi-Volatile Organic Analysis (SVOA) did not detect any impurities. However, the Fourier Transform Hydrogen Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (FT-HNMR) analysis detected presence of phthalates at a few ppm. The impurity concentration was highest in the April sample and consistently detected in the May and June samples (but always registered as a few ppm or less). Another impurity observed in the samples was mercury. Based on the June SHT sample, up to 25 ± 5 micrograms of mercury per mL of solvent was detected (as the average of the Direct Mercury Analysis (DMA) and X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) methods). The higher mercury concentration in the solvent (as determined in the last three-monthly samples) is possibly due to the higher mercury concentration in Salt Batches 9 and 10. The gamma concentration (~2.90E4 dpm/mL) measured in the June 2019 SHT samples was consistent with previous values observed when the Modular Caustic-Side Solvent Extraction Unit (MCU) was operating continuously (for example, between December 2016 and January 2017). Statistical analysis of the different analytical methods detected a bias between the FT-HNMR and the High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) methods when measuring the MaxCalix and Modifier concentrations; the FT-HNMR gave a higher concentration possibly due to peak overlapping in the measured data. A bias was detected when measuring total mercury by the DMA method versus the XRF method with the XRF method reported higher mercury concentrations. The laboratory will continue to monitor the quality of the solvent for any new impurities or degradation of the solvent components.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of Uncertainty Impacts on Emissions and Fuel Economy Evaluation for Chassis Dynamometer Testing

This study illustrates a methodology for quantifying the uncertainties encountered in the measurement of tailpipe emissions and in the fuel consumption measurements for light-duty conventional vehicles tested on a four-wheel drive chassis dynamometer. The study leverages high-fidelity experimental data collected over three standard drive cycles, UDDS, HWY and US06, intended to simulate a wide range of operating conditions. Here, a method is developed to estimate the measurement uncertainties in fuel consumption for a test cycle, which occur due to the accumulation of measurement uncertainties propagated through the system. The uncertainty determination model uses statistical analysis and standard propagation techniques to evaluate and combine the uncertainties introduced from various sources (including the vehicle, chassis dynamometer, driver, and instrumentation). The analysis also examines three different experimental methods for determining the fuel consumption: 1) carbon mass balance, 2) volumetric fuel scale and 3) gravimetric fuel scale, and takes into consideration the properties of the instrumentation used. The results show that the most significant influence on the determination of the emissions comes from the concentration measurement, and similarly the biggest impact on the total fuel consumption uncertainty comes from the uncertainty in the determination of the carbon dioxide mass, due to the large presence of this pollutant in the overall emissions. It was found that the fuel consumption uncertainties are in the range of ±1-2% for all three methods analyzed, with the lowest values being obtained for measurements performed using the gravimetric method for all three drive cycles considered.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine-learning-revealed statistics of the particle-carbon/binder detachment in lithium-ion battery cathodes

The microstructure of a composite electrode determines how individual battery particles are charged and discharged in a lithium-ion battery. It is a frontier challenge to experimentally visualize and, subsequently, to understand the electrochemical consequences of battery particles’ evolving (de)attachment with the conductive matrix. Herein, we tackle this issue with a unique combination of multiscale experimental approaches, machine-learning-assisted statistical analysis, and experiment-informed mathematical modeling. Our results suggest that the degree of particle detachment is positively correlated with the charging rate and that smaller particles exhibit a higher degree of uncertainty in their detachment from the carbon/binder matrix. We further explore the feasibility and limitation of utilizing the reconstructed electron density as a proxy for the state-of-charge. Our findings highlight the importance of precisely quantifying the evolving nature of the battery electrode’s microstructure with statistical confidence, which is a key to maximize the utility of active particles towards higher battery capacity.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

International interlaboratory compilation of trace element concentrations in the CUP-2 uranium ore concentrate standard

Herein, a nuclear forensics investigation involving a uranium ore concentrate relies on accurate and precise analysis of impurities. Analytical data defensibility requires the use of reference materials as part of quality control. This study presents a compilation of trace element concentration results of the CUP-2 Uranium Ore Concentrate Standard measured by 11 different laboratories. The laboratories employed various dissolution methods, analytical preparation methods, and instrumental platforms. The data presented here contain concentrations of 66 impurities with up to 138 individual data points for each impurity. Consensus values have been assigned to each impurity following a statistical analysis of the data set.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2022

Social Disparities of Pain and Pain Intensity Among Women Diagnosed With Early Stage Breast Cancer

Background: Breast cancer is one of the most commonly diagnosed cancers among women in the United States and pain is the most common side effect of breast cancer and its treatment. Yet, the relationships between social determinants of pain and pain experience/intensity remain under-investigated. We examined the associations between social determinants of pain both at the individual level and the neighborhood level to understand how social conditions are associated with pain perception among early stage breast cancer patients. Methods: We conducted integrated statistical analysis of 1,191 women with early stage breast cancer treated at a large cancer center in Memphis, Tennessee. Combining electronic health records, patient-reported data and census data regarding residential address at the time of first diagnosis, we evaluated the relationships between social determinants and pain perception. Pain responses were self-reported by a patient as a numerical rating scale score at the patient’s initial diagnosis and follow-up clinical visits. We implemented two sets of statistical analyses of the zero-inflated Poisson model and estimated the associations between neighborhood poverty prevalence and breast cancer pain intensity. After adjustment for demographic characteristics, cancer stage, and chemotherapy, pain perception was significantly associated with poverty and blight level of the neighborhood. Results: Among women living in the highest-poverty areas, the odds of reporting pain were 2.48 times higher than those in the lowest-poverty area. Women living in the highest-blight area had 5.43 times higher odds of reporting pain than those in the lowest-blight area. Neighborhood-level social determinants were significantly associated with pain intensity among women diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer. Conclusions: Distressed neighborhood conditions are significantly associated with higher pain perception. Breast cancer patients living in socio-economically disadvantaged neighborhoods and in poor environmental conditions reported higher pain severity compared to patients from less distressed neighborhoods. Therefore, post-diagnosis pain treatment design needs to be tailored to the social determinants of the breast cancer patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

An analysis of fluff formation in metallic fuel via data analyzes from EBR-II experiments and BISON fuel code modeling

During the operation of EBR-II, it was found that a highly porous structure (over 40% area fraction) formed at the top of several fuel columns. Previous work has shown that this structure, designated fluff in this paper, contains a significant fraction of fuel elements (e.g., U and Pu) which could potentially impact neutronics. This work aims in analyzing the formation mechanism of this microstructure so its impact can be incorporated into future metallic fuel modeling codes and algorithms. This paper details a preliminary examination into the formation mechanisms of fluff by performing qualitative and statistical analysis of EBR-II experimental data. Additionally, the operating conditions that have the greatest impact on fluff formation were determined based on this data set. Also, BISON fuel code simulations were used to help postulate potential fluff formation mechanisms. From this analysis it was found that the largest contributors to fluff formation were fuel burnup and composition, with fluff formation exhibiting a roughly linear positive correlation with increasing burnup and a negative correlation with increasing Pu content. It was also found that higher pin operating temperatures decreased fluff formation but only for U-10Zr fuels.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

PyFLEXTRKR: a flexible feature tracking Python software for convective cloud analysis

Abstract. This paper describes the new open-source framework PyFLEXTRKR (Python FLEXible object TRacKeR), a flexible atmospheric feature tracking software package with specific capabilities to track convective clouds from a variety of observations and model simulations. This software can track any atmospheric 2D objects and handle merging and splitting explicitly. The package has a collection of multi-object identification algorithms, scalable parallelization options, and has been optimized for large datasets including global high-resolution data. We demonstrate applications of PyFLEXTRKR on tracking individual deep convective cells and mesoscale convective systems from observations and model simulations ranging from large-eddy resolving (∼100s m) to mesoscale (∼10s km) resolutions. Visualization, post-processing, and statistical analysis tools are included in the package. New Lagrangian analyses of convective clouds produced by PyFLEXTRKR applicable to a wide range of datasets and scales facilitate advanced model evaluation and development efforts as well as scientific discovery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Analysis of genomic signatures associated with Variovorax endosphere colonization

This repository contains the analysis code and supporting datasets associated with the study “Genomic signatures in Variovorax enabling colonization of the Populus endosphere.” Beals DG, Carper DL, Hochanadel LH, Jawdy SS, Klingeman DM, Piatkowski BT, Weston DJ, Doktycz MJ, Pelletier DA. 2026. Genomic signatures in Variovorax enabling colonization of the Populus endosphere. mSystems 11:e01605-25. https://doi.org/10.1128/msystems.01605-25 The scripts are organized sequentially (01–07) and document the workflows used for: Sequence-read alignment and feature counting Orthogroup and KEGG Ortholog annotation Count normalization Statistical analysis and aggregation Generation of manuscript figures and tables Repository contents The uncompressed files are the finalized, formatted datasets used to generate the figures and tables reported in the study, including the supplemental CSV files referenced in the manuscript. The accompanying ZIP archive contains the complete codebase and example data_input/ and data_output/ directories illustrating the organization and execution of the analytical workflow. Individual scripts identify the corresponding manuscript analyses and figure panels. Raw sequencing data Raw sequencing reads are available through the NCBI Sequence Read Archive under BioProject accession PRJNA1322484.

Beals, Delaney [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000306274574)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Topological Defects in Lamellar Phases through Contour Analysis of Complex Wave Fields

Lamellar phases frequently contain structural imperfections that significantly affect their behaviors and properties. Our previous research successfully reconstructed real-space configurations of defective lamellar phases from diffuse scattering patterns, indicating the presence of phase vortices as a potential method for identifying topological defects disrupting the smectic ordering. Here, this report presents a mathematical framework using regularized wave fields to represent defective lamellar structures in real space. Phase singularities, resulting from the interference of random waves and indicating lamellar order disruption, are identified through a contour integral. These wave fields, derived from coherent scattering in reciprocal space, were validated via computational benchmarks analyzing small-angle neutron scattering data from AOT surfactant solutions, facilitating further statistical analysis of the defects. Our study highlights the potential to extract meaningful information about topological defects in lyotropic phases by inversely analyzing experimentally measured two-point static correlations. Our method allows for detailed structural analysis of various lyotropic phases, both particulate and nonparticulate, in their quiescent states and facilitates quantitative investigation of defects’ role in phase transitions. By integrating small-angle scattering, deep learning, and vortex tangle analysis, our comprehensive approach shows promise in addressing complex challenges in the structural analysis of soft matter systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗