Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Statistics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11

Density fluctuation statistics and turbulence spreading at the edge of L–mode plasmas

Long-wavelength density fluctuations ($k{\rho _i}$ <1) are studied using beam emission spectroscopy (BES) at the edge of DIII-D L-mode plasmas (ρ = 0.88–1.1) in scenarios with electron cyclotron heating (ECH) power ramp (P ECH up to 1.5 MW), neutral beam injection (NBI) power ramp (P NBI up to 2.5 MW), and injected torque scan (-1 < T inj <0.6 Nm). We find that broadband turbulent density fluctuations (ƒ ~ 20–120 kHz) have a non-Gaussian distribution. The skewness of $\delta n/n$ changes sign from negative at ρ < 0.95–0.97 to positive at ρ > 0.97, indicating the prevalence of density 'voids' at inner radii and density 'blobs' at outer radii and outside of the separatrix. The turbulence intensity flux $\left\langle {{{\tilde v}_{\text{r}}}{{\tilde n}^2}} \right\rangle$ is calculated to characterize turbulence spreading at the plasma edge. During ECH/NBI power ramps and at counter-I p injected torque, $\left\langle {{{\tilde v}_{\text{r}}}{{\tilde n}^2}} \right\rangle$ is directed inward inside the separatrix, which is evidence of inward spreading of turbulence intensity from the edge gradient region caused by the inner propagation of density 'voids'. Significantly weaker $\left\langle {{{\tilde v}_{\text{r}}}{{\tilde n}^2}} \right\rangle$ is observed with co-I p torque. A correlation between co-I p torque, turbulence intensity $\delta n/n$ at ρ = 0.97, and increased srape-off layer (SOL) heat flux decay length ${\lambda _q}$ is found in the torque scan scenario, showing that edge turbulence plays a material role in determining the SOL conditions and heat flux width.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Towards revealing intrinsic vortex-core states in Fe-based superconductors through statistical discovery

Abstract In type-II superconductors, electronic states within magnetic vortices hold crucial information about the paring mechanism and can reveal non-trivial topology. While scanning tunneling microscopy/spectroscopy (STM/S) is a powerful tool for imaging superconducting vortices, it is challenging to isolate the intrinsic electronic properties from extrinsic effects like subsurface defects and disorders. Here we combine STM/STS with basic machine learning to develop a method for screening out the vortices pinned by embedded disorder in iron-based superconductors. Through a principal component analysis of large STS data within vortices, we find that the vortex-core states in Ba(Fe 0.96 Ni 0.04 ) 2 As 2 start to split into two categories at certain magnetic field strengths, reflecting vortices with and without pinning by subsurface defects or disorders. Our machine-learning analysis provides an unbiased approach to reveal intrinsic vortex-core states in novel superconductors and shed light on ongoing puzzles in the possible emergence of a Majorana zero mode.

Guo, Yueming↗

Statistical relationships across epigenomes using large-scale hierarchical clustering

Recent advances in genomics and sequencing platforms have revolutionized our ability to create immense data sets, particularly for studying epigenetic regulation of gene expression. However, the avalanche of epigenomic data is difficult to parse for biological interpretation given nonlinear complex patterns and relationships. This attractive challenge in epigenomic data lends itself to machine learning for discerning infectivity and susceptibility. In this study, we explore over 3000 epigenomes of uninfected individuals and provide a framework to characterize the relationships among epigenetic modifiers, their modifiers, genetic loci, and specific immune cell types across all chromosomes using hierarchical clustering. Hierarchical clustering of epigenomic data revealed consistent epigenetic patterns across chromosomes, demonstrating that variation due to epigenetic modifiers is greater than variation between cell types. Gene Ontology and KEGG pathway analyses indicated significant enrichment of genes involved in chromatin remodeling, mRNA splicing, immune responses, and the regulation of microRNAs and snoRNAs. Epigenetic modifiers frequently formed biologically relevant clusters, including the cohesin complex, RNA Polymerase II transcription factors, and PRC2 complex members. These clustering behaviors remained consistent across all chromosomes, supported by entropy analysis and high Adjusted Rand Index scores, indicating robust cross-chromosomal similarity. Co-occurrence analysis further revealed specific sets of modifiers that consistently appeared together within clusters, reflecting shared biological functions and interactions. Validation using another dataset confirmed the reproducibility of these clustering patterns and modifier co-occurrence relationships, underscoring the reliability and generalizability of the methodology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Impact of survey spatial variability on galaxy redshift distributions and the cosmological 3 × 2-point statistics for the Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST)

We investigate the impact of spatial survey non-uniformity on the galaxy redshift distributions for forthcoming data releases of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Specifically, we construct a mock photometry data set degraded by the Rubin OpSim observing conditions, and estimate photometric redshifts of the sample using a template-fitting photo-z estimator, BPZ, and a machine learning method, FlexZBoost. We select the Gold sample, defined as $i\lt 25.3$ for 10 yr LSST data, with an adjusted magnitude cut for each year and divide it into five tomographic redshift bins for the weak lensing lens and source samples. We quantify the change in the number of objects, mean redshift, and width of each tomographic bin as a function of the coadd i-band depth for 1-yr (Y1), 3-yr (Y3), and 5-yr (Y5) data. In particular, Y3 and Y5 have large non-uniformity due to the rolling cadence of LSST, hence provide a worst-case scenario of the impact from non-uniformity. We find that these quantities typically increase with depth, and the variation can be $10\!-\!40~{{\rm per\ cent}}$ at extreme depth values. Using Y3 as an example, we propagate the variable depth effect to the weak lensing $3\times 2$ pt analysis, and assess the impact on cosmological parameters via a Fisher forecast. We find that galaxy clustering is most susceptible to variable depth, and non-uniformity needs to be mitigated below 3 per cent to recover unbiased cosmological constraints. There is little impact on galaxy–shear and shear–shear power spectra, given the expected LSST Y3 noise.

cosmology↗

Statistical estimates of the binary properties of rotational variables

ABSTRACT We present a model to estimate the average primary masses, companion mass ranges, the inclination limit for recognizing a rotational variable, and the primary mass spreads for populations of binary stars. The model fits a population’s binary mass function distribution and allows for a probability that some mass functions are incorrectly estimated. Using tests with synthetic data, we assess the model’s sensitivity to each parameter, finding that we are most sensitive to the average primary mass and the minimum companion mass, with less sensitivity to the inclination limit and little to no sensitivity to the primary mass spread. We apply the model to five populations of binary spotted rotational variables identified in ASAS-SN, computing their binary mass functions using RV data from APOGEE. Their average primary mass estimates are consistent with our expectations based on their CMD locations ($\sim 0.75 \, {\rm M}_{\odot }$ for lower main sequence primaries and $\sim 0.9$–$1.2 \, {\rm M}_{\odot }$ for RS CVn and sub-subgiants). Their companion mass range estimates allow companion masses down to $M_2/M_1\simeq 0.1$, although the main sequence population may have a higher minimum mass fraction ($\sim 0.4$). We see weak evidence of an inclination limit $\gtrsim 50^{\circ }$ for the main sequence and sub-subgiant groups and no evidence of an inclination limit in the other groups. No groups show strong evidence for a preferred primary mass spread. We conclude by demonstrating that the approach will provide significantly better estimates of the primary mass and the minimum mass ratio and reasonable sensitivity to the inclination limit with 10 times as many systems.

Phillips, Anya (ORCID:000900051914974X)↗

Statistical Uncertainty of Inhalation Dose Coefficients: Impact of Particle Deposition in ICRP 66 Human Respiratory Tract Model

Inhaled radioactive materials can pose a long-term health concern, as the material can be incorporated into the body’s metabolic pathways and remain in organs and tissues for extended durations. During the retention period, the radioactive material may localize in a source organ and irradiate adjacent target organs and tissues. Distribution of these materials changes over time, requiring biokinetic modeling to evaluate their movement through various tissues and organs. The evolving distribution depends on multiple inputs characterizing the inhaled material, such as particle size and size distribution, particle density, aspect ratio, specific radionuclide, the chemical form, and solubility. In addition, biological parameters such as breathing rate, breathing type (nasal or nasal/oral), respiratory system morphometry, tidal volume, functional residual capacity, and anatomical dead space all influence material transport. These aerosol properties and physiological characteristics of the respiratory tract jointly define a range of initial conditions that influence the time-dependent distribution of radioactive material. To evaluate both uncertainty in the initial conditions of inhalation exposure and the final output (committed effective dose) from biokinetic models, a Python-based software tool, Radiological Exposure Dose Calculator (REDCAL), was developed to propagate uncertainty within the human respiratory tract model. Focusing on deposition fraction uncertainty, the primary objective was to characterize the initial activity distribution across respiratory regions as a function of anticipated particle sizes and distributions. The impact of the deposition fraction uncertainty was propagated to committed effective dose coefficients for selected radionuclides in a companion publication. For each particle size, a lognormal distribution, characterized by its geometric mean as defined within ICRP Publication 66, serves as the basis for introducing uncertainty into the physical processes governing deposition in various lung regions. Finally, this study addresses the deposition process and examines how uncertainty in deposition mechanisms affects activity distribution in the airways, ultimately presenting the expected range and standard deviation of deposited activity as a function of particle size.

International Commission on Radiological Protectio↗

Statistical Uncertainty of Inhalation Dose Coefficients in Consequence Management: Propagated Dose Uncertainty in ICRP 66 Human Respiratory Tract Model

Reference inhalation dose models rely on deterministic biokinetics and reference computational phantoms, limiting their applicability to the variability present in population-specific exposures encountered in emergency response scenarios. Here, this study introduces REDCAL, a Python-based computational framework developed to propagate uncertainty in inhalation dose coefficients using the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) Publication 66 Human Respiratory Tract Model. REDCAL integrates ICRP deposition and clearance models, systemic biokinetics, and governing physics principles, and leverages Sandia National Laboratories’ Dakota toolkit for uncertainty quantification via Latin Hypercube Sampling. REDCAL was validated against DCAL, with biokinetic retention results differing by less than 1% and effective dose coefficients by less than 2% across all tested radionuclides. Stochastic sampling introduced variability in dose coefficients, with geometric standard deviations (GSD) in committed effective dose coefficients (CEDC) ranging from 1.0 to 1.5, based on lognormal distribution fits. Analysis demonstrated that variations in the activity median aerodynamic diameter (AMAD) notably influenced the computed CEDC values. Smaller particles (<1 µm) increased doses by 20–30% due to deeper lung deposition and prolonged retention for alpha emitting radionuclides, such as 241 Am and 239 Pu. Radionuclides with fast clearance, such as 133 I, demonstrated a dose reduction exceeding 50%, as AMAD increased beyond 5 µm due to upper airway deposition and rapid mucociliary clearance. The greatest GSD among the radionuclides reported in this study was for 241 Am. In most cases, the largest GSDs in the CEDC were associated with larger particle sizes, an expected outcome, as ICRP Publication 66 defines GSD in particle size as a function of AMAD, resulting in an extended tail of the lognormal distribution. The findings support improved inhalation dose assessments and enhance consequence management strategies for the U.S. Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center by quantifying uncertainty in dose coefficients and strengthening decision-making for emergency response scenarios.

Biokinetic Modeling↗

Exact statistics of helical wormlike chains with twist-bend coupling

Here, we present a solution for the Green's function for the general case of a helical wormlike chain with twist-bend coupling and demonstrate the applicability of our solution for evaluating general structural and mechanical chain properties. We find that twist-bend coupling renormalizes the persistence length and the force-extension curves relative to wormlike chains. Analysis of intrinsically twisted polymers shows that incorporation of twist-bend coupling results in the oscillatory behavior in principal tangent correlations that are observed in some studies of synthetic polymers. The exact nature of our solution provides a framework to evaluate the role of twist-bend coupling on polymer properties, such as DNA bound to histones and motivates the reinterpretation of existing biopolymer experimental data.

Ghosh, Ashesh [University of California, Berkeley,↗

Finite Bubble Statistics Constrain Late Cosmological Phase Transitions

We consider first order cosmological phase transitions (PTs) happening at late times below standard model temperatures T PT ≲ GeV. The inherently stochastic nature of bubble nucleation and the finite number of bubbles associated with a late-time PT lead to superhorizon fluctuations in the PT completion time. We compute how such fluctuations eventually source curvature fluctuations with universal properties, independent of the microphysics of the PT dynamics. Using cosmic microwave background (CMB) and large scale structure measurements, we constrain the energy released in a dark-sector PT. For 0.1 eV ≲ T PT ≲ keV this constraint is stronger than both the current bound from additional neutrino species Δ⁢N eff , and in some cases, even CMB-S4 projections. Future measurements of CMB spectral distortions and pulsar timing arrays will also provide competitive sensitivity for keV ≲ T PT ≲ GeV.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Disentangling the impact of quasiparticles and two-level systems on the statistics of superconducting-qubit lifetime

Temporal fluctuations in the superconducting qubit lifetime, T 1 , present additional challenges in the pursuit of fault-tolerant quantum computing. Although the exact mechanisms remain unclear, T 1 fluctuations are generally attributed to strong coupling between the qubit and a few near-resonant two-level systems (TLSs), which can exchange energy with an ensemble of thermally fluctuating two-level fluctuators (TLFs) at low frequencies. Here, we report T 1 measurements of qubits with varying geometrical footprints and surface dielectrics as a function of temperature. By analyzing the noise spectrum of the qubit depolarization rate, Γ 1 = 1 / T 1 , we disentangle the contributions of TLSs, nonequilibrium quasiparticles (QPs), and equilibrium (thermally excited) QPs to the variance in Γ 1 . We find that the Γ 1 variance in qubits with smaller footprints is more susceptible to QP and TLS fluctuations than that in larger-footprint qubits. Furthermore, the QP-induced variances in all qubits align with the theoretical framework of QP diffusion and fluctuation. These findings offer valuable insights for future qubit design and engineering optimization.

Zhu, Shaojiang [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000293180092)↗

Statistical Performance of Forced Oscillation Detectors in the Presence of Missing Measurements

In bulk power systems, measurement-based monitoring for large oscillations can help maintain system reliability. One of the challenges encountered in a recent field demonstration was the unavailability of measurements due to underlying measurement quality or communication problems. During the demonstration, the oscillation detector ignored a measurement location if even 10 seconds of data was missing. To extend the detector's ability to operate in these conditions, this paper evaluates the impact of three methods for addressing missing data. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are evaluated using theoretical expressions for the probability of detection along with results from simulated data and publicly available field measurements. Based on these results, a suitable approach is identified that can extend the oscillation detector's performance when large segments of data are missing.

Follum, James D.↗

Statistical Behavior of Low-Amplitude Power System Point-on-Wave Measurements

The power grid is undergoing massive changes to ensure resiliency and reliability in a more decentralized world. Distributed energy resources are becoming a prominent source of generation, potentially leading to a lack of centralized generation sources. Due to these new behaviors and system topologies, it is important to install measurement devices that are 1) accurate and 2) self-aware of their measurement quality. In this paper, a residential-scale microgrid is used to generate voltage and current waveforms, captured by Verivolt and National Instruments measurement equipment. A least-squares approach is used to separate the “clean” signals from the noise. Finally, Gaussian mixture modeling is used to approximate noise distributions, and it is shown these higher-order distribution estimates are a better fit to voltage and current noise profiles than single-mode Gaussian estimates.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Comparison of the spatial statistics of random and defined-sequence photoresist films

The resolution-line edge roughness-sensitivity tradeoff has motivated the exploration of potential improvements using defined sequence polymers and polymer-bound photoacid generators and quenchers. We characterize the internal structures of positive tone photoresist polymer films formed from defined sequence polymers and compare them with random copolymers of the same composition. We model their imaging to connect initially to developable film structures. We use a polymer packing algorithm to simulate films of diverse compositions and locations of photoacid generators and quenchers, using the composition of an ESCAP photoresist. We use a simple extreme ultraviolet exposure-deprotection algorithm to model developable image formation within them. In all cases, the spatial distribution of chemical moieties in the film for defined sequence polymers is nearly indistinguishable from random copolymers. We evaluate several exposure-deprotection scenarios and find that a defined sequence copolymer has a distinctive developable image under certain circumstances. The use of defined sequence polymers within a photoresist layer does not automatically result in improved imaging; however, they do have some characteristics different from random polymers of the same composition. Further study of these characteristics may provide a route to improved control over the nanoscale imaging process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sensitive detection of structural dynamics using a statistical framework for comparative crystallography

Chemical and conformational changes are crucial to protein function and its pharmacological control. X-ray crystallography can reveal these changes in atomic detail, but standard analysis methods, which refine separate datasets, often overlook differences that are subtle or arise in only a subset of molecules. Direct comparison of crystallographic datasets is, in principle, more powerful, but systematic errors (“scales”) often mask changes in the crystallographic observables (“structure factors”). Machine learning algorithms that jointly estimate scales and structure factors can address this limitation. Here, we augment this approach with multivariate, structured priors derived from crystallographic theory, implemented in the variational deep learning framework Careless. Doing so strongly improves the detection of protein dynamics, element-specific anomalous signals, and the binding of drug candidates, offering a robust approach to comparative crystallography and, potentially, to detection of protein dynamics by other structure determination methods.

Hekstra, Doeke R. [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (U↗

Statistical analysis of the fluctuations of an initial-state model with independently distributed hot spots

Abstract We determine the uncorrelated modes that characterize the fluctuations in a semi-realistic model for the initial state of high-energy nuclear collisions, consisting of hot spots whose positions are distributed independently. Varying the number of hot spots, their size, and the weights with which they contribute to the initial state, we find that the parameter that has the largest influence on the relative importance of the fluctuation modes is the source size, with more extended hot spots leading to a more marked predominance of the principal modes.

Borghini, Nicolas↗