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DOE OSTI2012

Simulation of microtearing turbulence in national spherical torus experiment

Thermal energy confinement times in National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) dimensionless parameter scans increase with decreasing collisionality. While ion thermal transport is neoclassical, the source of anomalous electron thermal transport in these discharges remains unclear, leading to considerable uncertainty when extrapolating to future spherical tokamak (ST) devices at much lower collisionality. Linear gyrokinetic simulations find microtearing modes to be unstable in high collisionality discharges. First non-linear gyrokinetic simulations of microtearing turbulence in NSTX show they can yield experimental levels of transport. Magnetic flutter is responsible for almost all the transport ({approx}98%), perturbed field line trajectories are globally stochastic, and a test particle stochastic transport model agrees to within 25% of the simulated transport. Most significantly, microtearing transport is predicted to increase with electron collisionality, consistent with the observed NSTX confinement scaling. While this suggests microtearing modes may be the source of electron thermal transport, the predictions are also very sensitive to electron temperature gradient, indicating the scaling of the instability threshold is important. In addition, microtearing turbulence is susceptible to suppression via sheared E Multiplication-Sign B flows as experimental values of E Multiplication-Sign B shear (comparable to the linear growth rates) dramatically reduce the transport below experimental values. Refinements in numerical resolution and physics model assumptions are expected to minimize the apparent discrepancy. In cases where the predicted transport is strong, calculations suggest that a proposed polarimetry diagnostic may be sensitive to the magnetic perturbations associated with the unique structure of microtearing turbulence.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Atmospheric Processes in Earth System Models and Quantifying Uncertainties With Deep Learning Multi‐Member and Stochastic Parameterizations

Abstract Deep learning is a powerful tool to represent subgrid processes in climate models, but many application cases have so far used idealized settings and deterministic approaches. Here, we develop stochastic parameterizations with calibrated uncertainty quantification to learn subgrid convective and turbulent processes and surface radiative fluxes of a superparameterization embedded in an Earth System Model (ESM). We explore three methods to construct stochastic parameterizations: (a) a single Deep Neural Network (DNN) with Monte Carlo Dropout; (b) a multi‐member parameterization; and (c) a Variational Encoder Decoder with latent space perturbation. We show that the multi‐member parameterization improves the representation of convective processes, especially in the planetary boundary layer, compared to individual DNNs. The respective uncertainty quantification illustrates that methods (b) and (c) are advantageous compared to a dropout‐based DNN parameterization regarding the spread of convective processes. Hybrid simulations with our best‐performing multi‐member parameterizations remained challenging and crash within the first days. Therefore, we develop a pragmatic partial coupling strategy relying on the superparameterization for condensate emulation. Partial coupling reduces the computational efficiency of hybrid Earth‐like simulations but enables model stability over 5 months with our multi‐member parameterizations. However, our hybrid simulations exhibit biases in thermodynamic fields and differences in precipitation patterns. Despite this, the multi‐member parameterizations enable improvements in reproducing tropical extreme precipitation compared to a traditional convection parameterization. Despite these challenges, our results indicate the potential of a new generation of multi‐member machine learning parameterizations leveraging uncertainty quantification to improve the representation of stochasticity of subgrid effects.

Behrens, Gunnar [Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und R↗

DOE OSTI2014

Degenerate Ising model for atomistic simulation of crystal-melt interfaces

One of the simplest microscopic models for a thermally driven first-order phase transition is an Ising-type lattice system with nearest-neighbour interactions, an external field, and a degeneracy parameter. The underlying lattice and the interaction coupling constant control the anisotropic energy of the phase boundary, the field strength represents the bulk latent heat, and the degeneracy quantifies the difference in communal entropy between the two phases. We simulate the (stochastic) evolution of this minimal model by applying rejection-free canonical and microcanonical Monte Carlo algorithms, and we obtain caloric curves and heat capacity plots for square (2D) and face-centred cubic (3D) lattices with periodic boundary conditions. Since the model admits precise adjustment of bulk latent heat and communal entropy, neither of which affect the interface properties, we are able to tune the crystal nucleation barriers at a fixed degree of undercooling and verify a dimension-dependent scaling expected from classical nucleation theory. We also analyse the equilibrium crystal-melt coexistence in the microcanonical ensemble, where we detect negative heat capacities and find that this phenomenon is more pronounced when the interface is the dominant contributor to the total entropy. The negative branch of the heat capacity appears smooth only when the equilibrium interface-area-to-volume ratio is not constant but varies smoothly with the excitation energy. Finally, we simulate microcanonical crystal nucleation and subsequent relaxation to an equilibrium Wulff shape, demonstrating the model's utility in tracking crystal-melt interfaces at the atomistic level.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Stochastic Reduced-Order Model for Statistical Microstructure Descriptors Evolution

Integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models have been a crucial building block for modern materials development, relieving heavy reliance on experiments and significantly accelerating the materials design process. However, ICME models are also computationally expensive, particularly with respect to time integration for dynamics, which hinders the ability to study statistical ensembles and thermodynamic properties of large systems for long time scales. To alleviate the computational bottleneck, we propose to model the evolution of statistical microstructure descriptors as a continuous-time stochastic process using a non-linear Langevin equation, where the probability density function (PDF) of the statistical microstructure descriptors, which are also the quantities of interests (QoIs), is modeled by the Fokker–Planck equation. In this work, we discuss how to calibrate the drift and diffusion terms of the Fokker–Planck equation from the theoretical and computational perspectives. The calibrated Fokker–Planck equation can be used as a stochastic reduced-order model to simulate the microstructure evolution of statistical microstructure descriptors PDF. Considering statistical microstructure descriptors in the microstructure evolution as QoIs, we demonstrate our proposed methodology in three integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models: kinetic Monte Carlo, phase field, and molecular dynamics simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Utah FORGE: Documentation on Discrete Fracture Network and Fracture Propagation Modelling

This dataset includes reports and a slide presentation on discrete fracture network (DFN) generation and hydraulic fracture modeling at the Utah FORGE site. It details the characterization of natural fractures using well log and core data, as well as stochastic modeling techniques. The reports describe simulations of hydraulic fracture propagation, fluid-mechanical interactions, and induced microseismicity. The dataset also includes history-matching of net pressure and analyses of fracture growth in naturally fractured geothermal reservoirs. The slides summarize key findings and future research directions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2013

Large-Scale Optimization for Bayesian Inference in Complex Systems

The SAGUARO (Scalable Algorithms for Groundwater Uncertainty Analysis and Robust Optimization) Project focused on the development of scalable numerical algorithms for large-scale Bayesian inversion in complex systems that capitalize on advances in large-scale simulation-based optimization and inversion methods. The project was a collaborative effort among MIT, the University of Texas at Austin, Georgia Institute of Technology, and Sandia National Laboratories. The research was directed in three complementary areas: efficient approximations of the Hessian operator, reductions in complexity of forward simulations via stochastic spectral approximations and model reduction, and employing large-scale optimization concepts to accelerate sampling. The MIT₋Sandia component of the SAGUARO Project addressed the intractability of conventional sampling methods for large-scale statistical inverse problems by devising reduced-order models that are faithful to the full-order model over a wide range of parameter values; sampling then employs the reduced model rather than the full model, resulting in very large computational savings. Results indicate little effect on the computed posterior distribution. On the other hand, in the Texas₋Georgia Tech component of the project, we retain the full-order model, but exploit inverse problem structure (adjoint-based gradients and partial Hessian information of the parameter-to-observation map) to implicitly extract lower dimensional information on the posterior distribution; this greatly speeds up sampling methods, so that fewer sampling points are needed. We can think of these two approaches as "reduce then sample" and "sample then reduce." In fact, these two approaches are complementary, and can be used in conjunction with each other. Moreover, they both exploit deterministic inverse problem structure, in the form of adjoint-based gradient and Hessian information of the underlying parameter-to-observation map, to achieve their speedups.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Implementation and Validation of Photon Transport in OpenMC

OpenMC is a Monte Carlo particle transport code focused on reactor physics calculations. It stochastically simulates neutrons moving through 3D models using constructive solid geometry and continuous-energy cross sections. Recently, a photon transport capability was added to OpenMC. In reactor simulations, photon transport is needed, for example, to account for photon heating: although the majority of the energy deposited at a fission site comes from the kinetic energy of the fission fragments, a nontrivial portion can be carried away by photons. Therefore, photons produced in neutron reactions must be simulated in order to accurately model energy deposition. OpenMC can now simulate neutron-induced photon production as well as perform pure photon calculations. The four basic photon interactions with matter — coherent (Rayleigh) scattering, incoherent (Compton) scattering, the photoelectric effect, and pair production — are modeled. Secondary processes that can create new photons (i.e., atomic relaxation, electron-positron annihilation, and bremsstrahlung) are also included. The methods implemented here were validated against MCNP6 for a variety of materials and energies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2004

Designing to Mitigate Food Growing Failures in Space

Future space life support systems may use crop plants to grow most of the crew s food. A harvest failure can reduce the food available for future consumption. If the previously stored food is insufficient to reach the next harvest, the crew may go hungry. This paper considers how the overall food supply system should be modified to cope with food production failures. The food supply concept for a mission will use grown food, or stored food, cIr both. The optimum food supply mix depends on the costs and failure probabilities of stored and grown food. A simple food system model assumes that either we obtain the nominal harvest or a failure occurs and no food is harvested. Given the probability that any particular harvest fails, it is easy to compute the expected number of failures and the total food shortfall over a mission. If some food is grown and the probability of harvest failure is high, a non-redundant system has an unacceptable likelihood that the crew will have no food for a full harvest period. Food supply reliability must be increased either by supplying more food initially or by increasing food production capacity. We can obtain a very reliable food supply even when the harvest failure rate is high. If the cost of growing food is much less than the cost of providing stored food, it is better to provide redundant food growing capacity than to increase initial storage. A more realistic biomass production failure model allows the harvest amount or time to vary around the nominal values, using stochastic modeling with repeated Monte Carlo simulation, but such failures have minor impact compared to a complete harvest failure.

Jones, Harry↗

DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic simulations of temporally and spatially variable Fe cycling within a floodplain aquifer

This data package contains model input and output files for local and global sensitivity analysis (SA) of a reactive transport model simulating redox cycling within a floodplain aquifer. The reaction network is implemented in CrunchFlow and focuses on spatially and temporally heterogeneous Fe cycling, though it contains several other species and redox pathways (37 aqueous species and 7 minerals in total). The package contains data from 600 Monte Carlo simulations (for global SA) and 104 one-at-a-time simulations (for local SA). It includes all input files required to run the CrunchFlow model, as well as limited model output – .csv files containing time series of primary species concentrations at 21 grid cells within the domain. These time series files contain the following species: H+, CO32-, SO42-, Cl-, Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, Fe(II), Fe(III), HS-, CH3COO-, O2(aq), S(aq), and Br-.These data were used to demonstrate the application of a novel form of global SA, distance-based generalized sensitivity analysis (DGSA) to a reactive transport model. The 2D model simulates the export of reduced species from pockets of fine-grained, organic-rich sediments embedded in a coarse sand aquifer. Stochastic simulations jointly varied 17 key model input parameters across several orders of magnitude, including the spatial variability of each parameter. DGSA on the model results reveal that the amplitude and variability of exported Fe(II) are most sensitive to the interaction between sand permeability and individual reaction rates. By contrast, the propagation of reducing conditions downgradient from the fine-grained lenses depends most heavily on the rate of dissolved organic carbon and sulfate release from the fines.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structured interactions drive abrupt transitions in the spatial organization of microbial communities

Bacteria possess diverse mechanisms to regulate their motility in response to environmental and physiological signals, enabling them to navigate complex habitats and adapt their behavior. Some of these mechanisms are species specific and enable cells to modulate their movement based on the ecological identity of neighboring species. Here, we introduce a model in which bacteria interact via local signals that either enhance or suppress the motility of neighboring cells depending on species type. Through large-scale simulations and a coarse-grained stochastic model, we demonstrate the emergence of a sharp transition driven by nucleation processes: increasing the density of motility-suppressing interactions drives the system from a fully mixed, motile phase to a state characterized by large, stationary bacterial clusters. Remarkably, in systems with a large number of interacting species, this transition can be triggered solely by altering the structure of the motility-regulation interaction matrix while maintaining species and interaction densities constant. In particular, we find that heterogeneous and modular interactions promote the transition more readily than homogeneous random ones. These findings add a dimension to the theory of motility-induced phase separation and contribute to the ongoing effort to understand microbial interactions, suggesting that structured, nonrandom ones may be key to reproducing commonly observed spatial patterns in microbial communities.

bacterial communities↗

DOE OSTI2022

Process-oriented stochastic perturbations applied to the parametrization of turbulence and shallow convection for ensemble prediction

Weather forecasting nowadays often requires some estimation of uncertainties associated with the output of meteorological models, in order to better inform decision making, especially in the context of intense weather events. Ensemble prediction systems provide such information through sets of possible scenarios which are designed to represent various uncertainty sources, including model uncertainties. A wide variety of methods have been proposed to estimate model uncertainties, among which perturbation methods targeting uncertain processes are a promising research field. Here, we focus on the representation of small-scale variability by process-oriented perturbation schemes applied to two key physical processes, namely turbulence and shallow convection. The perturbations are applied to a single-column version of the convection-permitting AROME model, in three idealized boundary-layer cases. Large-eddy simulations (LESs) of the same cases serve as a reference for the subgrid variability that has to be represented, and the results are also compared to those given by the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendencies (SPPT) method, which is a method commonly used by weather forecast centres to represent model uncertainty. The spread produced by our process-oriented perturbations of turbulence and shallow convection does not represent all the small-scale variability implied by the LESs for temperature and humidity. However, it is of a similar order of magnitude for the wind, thanks to perturbations generated by the stochastic turbulence scheme. The dispersion is structurally different from what is obtained with SPPT. It is non-negligible in the lower levels, where SPPT perturbations are usually suppressed because of numerical instabilities, indicating a possible complementarity between the schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Stochastic simulation of predictive space–time scenarios of wind speed using observations and physical model outputs

We propose a statistical space-time model for predicting atmospheric wind speed based on deterministic numerical weather predictions and historical measurements. We consider a Gaussian multivariate space-time framework that combines multiple sources of past physical model outputs and measurements in order to produce a probabilistic wind speed forecast within the prediction window. We illustrate this strategy on wind speed forecasts during several months in 2012 for a region near the Great Lakes in the United States. The results show that the prediction is improved in the mean-squared sense relative to the numerical forecasts as well as in probabilistic scores. Moreover, the samples are shown to produce realistic wind scenarios based on sample spectra and space-time correlation structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

Bifurcation analysis of a simple analytic model of self-propagating star formation

We investigate the structure and stability of rotationally symmetric nonhomogeneous time-independent solutions derived from a simple analytic model of self-propagating star formation. For this purpose we employ two methodologies: We use bifurcation theoretical methods to prove the existence of nonhomogeneous axisymmetric stationary solutions of an appropriate nonlinear evolution equation for the stellar density. We show that the nonhomogeneous solution branch bifurcates from the homogeneous one at a critical parameter value of the star formation rate. Further, the analytical theory allows us to show that the new solution set is stable in the weakly nonlinear regime near the bifurcation point. To follow the solution branch further, we use numerical methods. The numerical calculation shows the structure and stability of these solutions. We conclude that no periodic time-dependent solutions of this special model exist, and no further bifurcations can be found. The same results have been found in simulations of stochastic self-propagating star formation based on similar models. Therefore, our findings provide a natural explanation, why long-lived large-scale structure have not been found in those simulations.

Neukirch, Thomas↗

DOE OSTI2019

Modelling the Fluctuations of Reactive Shock Waves in Heterogeneous Solid Explosives as Stochastic Processes

Although current phenomenological burn models are useful for describing the average or bulk reactive flow behaviour of heterogeneous explosives, one fundamental weakness inherent to these models is the loss of detailed microstructural information at the scale of the calculation. In order to include the effects of the microstructure, and in particular the underlying material heterogeneities that influence the build-up to detonation, a new paradigm is put forth for modelling sub-grid, reaction-induced fluctuations (i.e. “hot spots”) at the continuum level. This modelling approach assumes that the reaction rate is stochastic, rather than deterministic, and it uses Langevin-type equations with a mathematical framework built upon Itô calculus and Lambourn's CIM model for shocked heterogeneous explosives. This approach follows directly from our previous letter, Ref. [1], and is inspired by the probability density function (pdf) methods used in turbulent reactive flows. Here, the stochastic burn model is derived, implemented, and exercised far beyond what has been shown in previous work. New hydrocode simulation results demonstrate the role of stochastic fluctuations during shock initiation; these fluctuations are approximated by collections of discrete particles, that evolve with drift (i.e. deterministic) and diffusion (i.e. stochastic) coefficients. Furthermore, the particle values are propagated and averaged to calculate the heat release, yield strength, and material impedance in each computational cell. Hydrocode simulation results further show how the fluctuating hot spot energy may or may not be transmitted to the wave front, and result in a detonation wave-like structure. The fundamental stochastic nature of this model permits simulations to have varying outcomes with the same initial conditions; this allows for go/no-go estimation (e.g., marginal or failed detonations), which might possibly be calibrated using the statistical distributions from real materials. Mesoscale calculations of shocked heterogeneous explosives also show that these fluctuations are physically justified (i.e., Ref. [2]), and it is hypothesized that the pdf functions provide a link between the meso(grain) and continuum scales for practical engineering calculations. Hence, our approach is a paradigm shift for building efficient, reduced order continuum burn models, that represent the sub-grid stochastic behaviour of shocked heterogeneous solid explosives.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Tensor Network Quantum Virtual Machine for Simulating Quantum Circuits at Exascale

The numerical simulation of quantum circuits is an indispensable tool for development, verification, and validation of hybrid quantum-classical algorithms intended for near-term quantum co-processors. The emergence of exascale high-performance computing (HPC) platforms presents new opportunities for pushing the boundaries of quantum circuit simulation. Here, we present a modernized version of the Tensor Network Quantum Virtual Machine (TNQVM) that serves as the quantum circuit simulation backend in the eXtreme-scale ACCelerator (XACC) framework. The new version is based on the scalable tensor network processing library ExaTN (Exascale Tensor Networks). It provides multiple configurable quantum circuit simulators that perform either an exact quantum circuit simulation via the full tensor network contraction or an approximate simulation via a suitably chosen tensor factorization scheme. Upon necessity, stochastic noise modeling from real quantum processors is incorporated into the simulations by modeling quantum channels with Kraus tensors. By combining the portable XACC quantum programming frontend and the scalable ExaTN numerical processing backend, we introduce an end-to-end virtual quantum development environment that can scale from laptops to future exascale platforms. We report initial benchmarks of our framework, which include a demonstration of the distributed execution, incorporation of quantum decoherence models, and simulation of the random quantum circuits used for the certification of quantum supremacy on Google’s Sycamore superconducting architecture.

Nguyen, Thien↗

NASA NTRS1976

Extracting scene feature vectors through modeling, volume 3

The remote estimation of the leaf area index of winter wheat at Finney County, Kansas was studied. The procedure developed consists of three activities: (1) field measurements; (2) model simulations; and (3) response classifications. The first activity is designed to identify model input parameters and develop a model evaluation data set. A stochastic plant canopy reflectance model is employed to simulate reflectance in the LANDSAT bands as a function of leaf area index for two phenological stages. An atmospheric model is used to translate these surface reflectances into simulated satellite radiance. A divergence classifier determines the relative similarity between model derived spectral responses and those of areas with unknown leaf area index. The unknown areas are assigned the index associated with the closest model response. This research demonstrated that the SRVC canopy reflectance model is appropriate for wheat scenes and that broad categories of leaf area index can be inferred from the procedure developed.

Berry, J. K.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Buildings.Occupants : A Modelica package for modelling occupant behaviour in buildings

Energy-related occupant behaviour is crucial to design and operation of energy and control systems in buildings. Occupant behaviours are often oversimplified as static schedules or settings in building performance simulation ignoring their stochastic nature. The continuous and dynamic interaction between occupants and building systems motivates their simultaneous simulation in an efficient manner. In the past, simultaneous simulation has relied on co-simulation approaches or customized source code changes to building simulation programmes. This paper presents Buildings. Occupants, an open-source package implemented in Modelica, for the simulation of occupant behaviours of lighting, windows, blinds, heating and air conditioning systems in office and residential buildings. Examples were presented to illustrate how the models in the Occupants package are capable to simulate stochastic occupant behaviours. Furthermore, the major contribution of this work is to introduce the equation-based modelling approach to simulate occupant behaviours in buildings and to develop an open-source Occupants package in the Modelica language.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2015

Signal analysis of NEMS sensors at the output of a chromatography column

This article introduces a joined Bayesian estimation of gas samples issued from a gas chromatography column (GC) coupled with a NEMS sensor based on Giddings Eyring microscopic molecular stochastic model. The posterior distribution is sampled using a Monte Carlo Markov Chain and Gibbs sampling. Parameters are estimated using the posterior mean. This estimation scheme is finally applied on simulated and real datasets using this molecular stochastic forward model.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗