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NASA NTRS2014

Overview of NASARTI (NASA Radiation Track Image) Program: Highlights of the Model Improvement and the New Results

This presentation summarizes several years of research done by the co-authors developing the NASARTI (NASA Radiation Track Image) program and supporting it with scientific data. The goal of the program is to support NASA mission to achieve a safe space travel for humans despite the perils of space radiation. The program focuses on selected topics in radiation biology that were deemed important throughout this period of time, both for the NASA human space flight program and to academic radiation research. Besides scientific support to develop strategies protecting humans against an exposure to deep space radiation during space missions, and understanding health effects from space radiation on astronauts, other important ramifications of the ionizing radiation were studied with the applicability to greater human needs: understanding the origins of cancer, the impact on human genome, and the application of computer technology to biological research addressing the health of general population. The models under NASARTI project include: the general properties of ionizing radiation, such as particular track structure, the effects of radiation on human DNA, visualization and the statistical properties of DSBs (DNA double-strand breaks), DNA damage and repair pathways models and cell phenotypes, chromosomal aberrations, microscopy data analysis and the application to human tissue damage and cancer models. The development of the GUI and the interactive website, as deliverables to NASA operations teams and tools for a broader research community, is discussed. Most recent findings in the area of chromosomal aberrations and the application of the stochastic track structure are also presented.

Ponomarev, Artem L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A stochastic optimal feedforward and feedback control methodology for superagility

A new control design methodology is developed: Stochastic Optimal Feedforward and Feedback Technology (SOFFT). Traditional design techniques optimize a single cost function (which expresses the design objectives) to obtain both the feedforward and feedback control laws. This approach places conflicting demands on the control law such as fast tracking versus noise atttenuation/disturbance rejection. In the SOFFT approach, two cost functions are defined. The feedforward control law is designed to optimize one cost function, the feedback optimizes the other. By separating the design objectives and decoupling the feedforward and feedback design processes, both objectives can be achieved fully. A new measure of command tracking performance, Z-plots, is also developed. By analyzing these plots at off-nominal conditions, the sensitivity or robustness of the system in tracking commands can be predicted. Z-plots provide an important tool for designing robust control systems. The Variable-Gain SOFFT methodology was used to design a flight control system for the F/A-18 aircraft. It is shown that SOFFT can be used to expand the operating regime and provide greater performance (flying/handling qualities) throughout the extended flight regime. This work was performed under the NASA SBIR program. ICS plans to market the software developed as a new module in its commercial CACSD software package: ACET.

Halyo, Nesim↗
NASA NTRS2017

Reconfigurable Cellular Composite Structures for Lighter than Air Vehicles with Scalable Size and Endurance

Engineered non-stochastic cellular materials show promising characteristics on the laboratory scale,with nearly ideal specific stiffness and strength scaling at ultralight mass density. These propertiessuggest performance benefits in any application with combined stiffness and mass constraints, suchas air vehicles. We investigate here the application of re-configurable cellular composite materialsand structures to lighter than air vehicles. We describe the properties and applicability of these materials,provide an example analysis of governing loading conditions associated with airships, showan example optimization method for navigating the design space, and describe how recent advancesin cellular material manufacturing and reconfiguration enable system performance benefits includingnew concepts of operation. Lastly, we propose lighter than air vehicles that are assembled andmaintained in-flight, eliminating structural compromises associated with transitional flight modesand ground handling.Engineered non-stochastic cellular material properties suggest performance benefits in lighter than air vehicles due tostiffness and mass constraints that are intrinsic to the airship design problem. Recent advances in cellular materialmanufacturing and reconfiguration enable system performance benefits including new concepts of operation, such aslighter than air vehicles that are assembled and maintained in-flight, eliminating structural compromises associatedwith transitional flight modes and ground handling. Existing engineered cellular materials display properties allowinglarge large scale airships design as monocoque cellular solids. Inevitable improvements in cellular material propertiesand manufacturing will improve feasibility even further. Given the suggestion that the two most significant technologygaps exist across all current airship projects are manufacturing and assembly processes and ground handling [7],a strategy that encompasses construction and maintenance in flight could provide critical rephrasing of the systemdesign problem through these new concepts of operation. Refactoring of traditional manufacturing, operation, andservice process constraints could extend to other domains in aerospace systems and manufacturing in general.In future work, the complexity of the design task would benefit from a form of optimization in order to find themost suitable geometry for a chosen application. For example, the Sequential Least SQuares Programming (SLSQP)function from within the SciPy Minimize library is a multiobjective constrained optimization method that has beenapplied to fixed wing aircraft design. [17] In this situation it would allow for several objective functions such as drag,bending stiffness, buoyancy and cost of transport to be incorporated into a composite objective function.

Copplestone, Grace↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Simple Postflight Measure of Postural Atania in Astronauts

Astronauts returning from space flight universally present with postural ataxia. Throughout the Space Shuttle Program, measurement of ataxia has concentrated on sway in the anterior-posterior (AP) plane. The current investigation, as a part of a larger functional study, concentrated on characterizing postural instability using dynamic stabilographic sway patterns in both the AP and medial-lateral (ML) planes. To accomplish this goal, six astronauts from short-duration (Shuttle) and three from long-duration (ISS) flights were required to recover from a simulated fall. Subjects with eyes open, wearing running shoes lay prone on the floor for 2 minutes and then quickly stood up, maintained a quiet stance for 3 minutes, arms relaxed along the side of the body, and feet comfortably placed on the force plate. Crewmembers were tested twice before flight, on landing day (Shuttle only), and 1, 6, and 30 days after flight. Anterior-posterior and ML center-of-pressure (COP) coordinates were calculated from the ground reaction forces collected at 500 Hz. The 3-minute quiet stance trial was broken into three 1-minute segments for stabilogram diffusion analysis. A mean sway speed (rate of change of COP displacement) was also calculated as an additional postural stability parameter. While there was considerable variation, most of crewmembers tested exhibited increased stochastic activity evidenced by larger short-term COP diffusion coefficients postflight in both the AP and ML planes, suggesting significant changes in postural control mechanisms, particularly control of lower limb muscle function. As expected, postural instability of ISS astronauts on the first day postflight was similar to that of Shuttle crewmembers on landing day. Recoveries of stochastic activity and mean sway speed to baseline levels were typically observed by the 30th day postflight for both long-duration and short-duration crewmembers. Dynamic postural stability characteristics obtained in this low-impact study complement the data measured with computerized dynamic posturography.

Reschke, M. F.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Postflight Quiet Stance Stability of Astronauts Following Recovery From a Simulated Fall

INTRODUCTION: Astronauts returning from space flight universally present with postural ataxia. Throughout the Space Shuttle Program, measurement of ataxia has concentrated on sway in the anterior-posterior plane. Implementation of an interdisciplinary pre- and postflight study (Functional Task Test, FTT) designed to evaluate both astronaut postflight functional performance and related physiological changes has allowed the investigation of postural instability by characterizing dynamic stabilographic sway patterns. METHODS: Six astronauts from short-duration (Shuttle) and three from long-duration (ISS) flights were required to recover from a simulated fall. Subjects with eyes open, wearing running shoes lay prone on the floor for 2 minutes and then quickly stood up, maintained a quiet stance for 3 minutes, arms relaxed along the side of the body, and feet comfortably placed on the force plate. Crewmembers were tested twice before flight, on landing day (Shuttle only), and 1, 6, and 30 days after flight. Anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) center-of-pressure (COP) coordinates were calculated from the ground reaction forces collected at 500 Hz. The 3-minute quiet stance trial was broken into three 1-minute segments for stabilogram diffusion analysis. A mean sway speed (rate of change of COP displacement) was also calculated as an additional postural stability parameter. RESULTS/CONCLUSION: While there was considerable variation, most of crewmembers tested exhibited increased stochastic activity evidenced by larger short-term COP diffusion coefficients postflight in both the AP and ML planes, suggesting significant changes in postural control mechanisms, particularly control of lower limb muscle function. As expected, postural instability of ISS astronauts on the first day postflight was similar to that of Shuttle crewmembers on landing day. Recoveries of stochastic activity and mean sway speed to baseline levels were typically observed by the 30th day postflight for both long-duration and short-duration crewmembers. Dynamic postural stability characteristics obtained in this low-impact study complement the data measured with computerized dynamic posturography.

Reschke, M. F.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads

This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that the authors' techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system loading, resulting in fewer object migrations than local methods. The authors' method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive load-balancing methods. Results from a preliminary analysis of another system and from simulation with a synthetic load provide some evidence of more general applicability.

LOAD CONTROL↗
NASA NTRS1994

Radiation protection issues in galactic cosmic ray risk assessment

Radiation protection involves the limitation of exposure to below threshold doses for direct (or deterministic) effects and a knowledge of the risk of stochastic effects after low doses. The principal stochastic risk associated with low dose rate galactic cosmic rays is the increased risk of cancer. Estimates of this risk depend on two factors (a) estimates of cancer risk for low-LET radiation and (b) values of the appropriate radiation weighting factors, WR, for the high-LET radiations of galactic cosmic rays. Both factors are subject to considerable uncertainty. The low-LET cancer risk derived from the late effects of the atomic bombs is vulnerable to a number of uncertainties including especially that from projection in time, and from extrapolation from high to low dose rate. Nevertheless, recent low dose studies of workers and others tend to confirm these estimates. WR, relies on biological effects studied mainly in non-human systems. Additional laboratory studies could reduce the uncertainties in WR and thus produce a more confident estimate of the overall risk of galactic cosmic rays.

NASA Program Radiation Health↗
NASA NTRS2014

Integrated Medical Model Verification, Validation, and Credibility

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic (stochastic process) model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A probabilistic approach is taken since exact (deterministic) results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation. METHODS: In 2008, the IMM team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) was published, the IMM team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. RESULTS: IMM VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices, IMM VV Plan status, and a synopsis of any changes or updates to the IMM during the reporting period. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including Operations, Science and Technology Planning, and Exploration Planning. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM project of combining the IMM VV Plan with 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Validation↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Integrated Medical Model - Optimizing In-flight Space Medical Systems to Reduce Crew Health Risk and Mission Impacts

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool used by medical system planners and designers as they prepare for exploration planning activities of the Constellation program (CxP). IMM provides an evidence-based approach to help optimize the allocation of in-flight medical resources for a specified level of risk within spacecraft operational constraints. Eighty medical conditions and associated resources are represented in IMM. Nine conditions are due to Space Adaptation Syndrome. The IMM helps answer fundamental medical mission planning questions such as What medical conditions can be expected? What type and quantity of medical resources are most likely to be used?", and "What is the probability of crew death or evacuation due to medical events?" For a specified mission and crew profile, the IMM effectively characterizes the sequence of events that could potentially occur should a medical condition happen. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew attributes, medical conditions and incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential clinical and crew health end states are established to generate end state probabilities. A Monte Carlo computational method is used to determine the probable outcomes and requires up to 25,000 mission trials to reach convergence. For each mission trial, the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat prevalent medical conditions are tracked and decremented. The uncertainty of patient response to treatment is bounded via a best-case, worst-case, untreated case algorithm. A Crew Health Index (CHI) metric, developed to account for functional impairment due to a medical condition, provides a quantified measure of risk and enables risk comparisons across mission scenarios. The use of historical in-flight medical data, terrestrial surrogate data as appropriate, and space medicine subject matter expertise has enabled the development of a probabilistic, stochastic decision support tool capable of optimizing in-flight medical systems based on crew and mission parameters. This presentation will illustrate how to apply quantitative risk assessment methods to optimize the mass and volume of space-based medical systems for a space flight mission given the level of crew health and mission risk.

Kerstman, Eric↗
NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM Project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the HRP NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document working group and the NASA-HDBK-7009 [2]. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including operations, science and technology planning, and exploration planning. IMM v4.0 is slated for operational release in the FY015 and current VVC assessments illustrate the expected VVC status prior to the completion of customer lead external review efforts. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM Project of incorporating Project-specific recommended practices and guidelines for implementing the 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM Project represented a critical communication tool in providing clear and concise suitability assessments to IMM customers. These processes have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Walton, M.↗
NASA NTRS1995

The effects of spaceflight on open-loop and closed-loop postural control mechanisms: human neurovestibular studies on SLS-2

Stabilogram-diffusion analysis was used to examine how prolonged periods in microgravity affect the open-loop and closed-loop postural control mechanisms. It was hypothesized that following spaceflight: (1) the effective stochastic activity of the open-loop postural control schemes in astronauts is increased; (2) the effective stochastic activity and uncorrelated behavior, respectively, of the closed-loop postural control mechanisms in astronauts are increased; and (3) astronauts utilized open-loop postural controls schemes for shorter time intervals and smaller displacements. Four crew members and two alternates from the 14-day Spacelab Life Sciences 2 Mission were included in the study. Each subject was tested under eyes-open, quiet-standing conditions on multiple preflight and postflight days. The subjects' center-of-pressure trajectories were measured with a force platform and analyzed according to stabilogram-diffusion analysis. It was found that the effective stochastic activity of the open-loop postural control schemes in three of the four crew members was increased following spaceflight. This result is interpreted as an indication that there may be in-flight adaptations to higher-level descending postural control pathways, e.g., a postflight increase in the tonic activation of postural muscles. This change may also be the consequence of a compensatory (e.g., "stiffening") postural control strategy that is adopted by astronauts to account for general feeling of postflight unsteadiness. The crew members, as a group, did not exhibit any consistent preflight/postflight differences in the steady-state behavior of their closed-loop postural control mechanisms or in the functional interaction of their open-loop and closed-loop postural control mechanisms. These results are interpreted as indications that although there may be in-flight adaptations to the vestibular system and/or proprioceptive system, input from the visual system can compensate for such changes during undisturbed stance.

NASA Program Flight↗
NASA NTRS1993

Planetary circulations in the presence of transient and self-induced heating

The research program focuses on large-scale circulations and their interaction with the global convective pattern. An 11-year record of global cloud imagery and contemporaneous fields of motion and temperature have been used to investigate organized convection and coherent variability of the tropical circulation operating on intraseasonal time scales. This study provides a detailed portrait of tropical variability associated with the so-called Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). It reveals the nature, geographical distribution, and seasonality of discrete convective signal, which is a measure of feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern. That discrete spectral behavior has been evaluated in light of natural variability of the ITCZ associated with climatological convection. A composite signature of the MJO, based on cross-covariance statistics of cloud cover, motion, and temperature, has been constructed to characterize the lifecycle of the disturbance in terms of these properties. The composite behavior has also been used to investigate the influence the MJO exerts on the zonal-mean circulation and the involvement of the MJO in transfers of momentum between the atmosphere and the solid Earth. The aforementioned observational studies have led to the production of two animations. One reveals the convective signal in band-pass filtered OLR and compares it to climatological convection. The other is a 3-dimensional visualization of the composite lifecycle of the MJO. With a clear picture of the MJO in hand, feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern can be diagnosed meaningfully in numerical simulations. This process is being explored in calculations with the linearized primitive equations on the sphere in the presence of realistic stability and shear. The numerical framework represents climatological convection as a space-time stochastic process and wave-induced convection in terms of the vertically-integrated moisture flux convergence. In these calculations, frictional convergence near the equator emerges as a key to feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern. At low latitudes, nearly geostrophic balance in the boundary layer gives way to frictional balance. This shifts the wave-induced convection into phase with the temperature anomaly and allows the attending heating to feed back positively onto the circulation. The calculations successfully reproduce the salient features of the MJO. They are being used to understand the growth and decay phases of the composite lifecycle and the conditions that favor amplification of the MJO.

Salby, Murry L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Flight Test of an Intelligent Flight-Control System

The F-15 Advanced Controls Technology for Integrated Vehicles (ACTIVE) airplane (see figure) was the test bed for a flight test of an intelligent flight control system (IFCS). This IFCS utilizes a neural network to determine critical stability and control derivatives for a control law, the real-time gains of which are computed by an algorithm that solves the Riccati equation. These derivatives are also used to identify the parameters of a dynamic model of the airplane. The model is used in a model-following portion of the control law, in order to provide specific vehicle handling characteristics. The flight test of the IFCS marks the initiation of the Intelligent Flight Control System Advanced Concept Program (IFCS ACP), which is a collaboration between NASA and Boeing Phantom Works. The goals of the IFCS ACP are to (1) develop the concept of a flight-control system that uses neural-network technology to identify aircraft characteristics to provide optimal aircraft performance, (2) develop a self-training neural network to update estimates of aircraft properties in flight, and (3) demonstrate the aforementioned concepts on the F-15 ACTIVE airplane in flight. The activities of the initial IFCS ACP were divided into three Phases, each devoted to the attainment of a different objective. The objective of Phase I was to develop a pre-trained neural network to store and recall the wind-tunnel-based stability and control derivatives of the vehicle. The objective of Phase II was to develop a neural network that can learn how to adjust the stability and control derivatives to account for failures or modeling deficiencies. The objective of Phase III was to develop a flight control system that uses the neural network outputs as a basis for controlling the aircraft. The flight test of the IFCS was performed in stages. In the first stage, the Phase I version of the pre-trained neural network was flown in a passive mode. The neural network software was running using flight data inputs with the outputs provided to instrumentation only. The IFCS was not used to control the airplane. In another stage of the flight test, the Phase I pre-trained neural network was integrated into a Phase III version of the flight control system. The Phase I pretrained neural network provided realtime stability and control derivatives to a Phase III controller that was based on a stochastic optimal feedforward and feedback technique (SOFFT). This combined Phase I/III system was operated together with the research flight-control system (RFCS) of the F-15 ACTIVE during the flight test. The RFCS enables the pilot to switch quickly from the experimental- research flight mode back to the safe conventional mode. These initial IFCS ACP flight tests were completed in April 1999. The Phase I/III flight test milestone was to demonstrate, across a range of subsonic and supersonic flight conditions, that the pre-trained neural network could be used to supply real-time aerodynamic stability and control derivatives to the closed-loop optimal SOFFT flight controller. Additional objectives attained in the flight test included (1) flight qualification of a neural-network-based control system; (2) the use of a combined neural-network/closed-loop optimal flight-control system to obtain level-one handling qualities; and (3) demonstration, through variation of control gains, that different handling qualities can be achieved by setting new target parameters. In addition, data for the Phase-II (on-line-learning) neural network were collected, during the use of stacked-frequency- sweep excitation, for post-flight analysis. Initial analysis of these data showed the potential for future flight tests that will incorporate the real-time identification and on-line learning aspects of the IFCS.

Davidson, Ron↗
NASA NTRS1990

A new continuum model for suspensions of gyrotactic micro-organisms

A new continuum model is formulated for dilute suspensions of swimming micro-organisms with asymmetric mass distributions. Account is taken of randomness in a cell's swimming direction, p, by postulating that the probability density function for p satisfies a Fokker-Planck equation analogous to that obtained for colloid suspensions in the presence of rotational Brownian motion. The deterministic torques on a cell, viscous and gravitational, are balanced by diffusion, represented by an isotropic rotary diffusivity Dr, which is unknown a priori, but presumably reflects stochastic influences on the cell's internal workings. When the Fokker-Planck equation is solved, macroscopic quantities such as the average cell velocity Vc, the particle diffusivity tensor D and the effective stress tensor sigma can be computed; Vc and D are required in the cell conservation equation, and sigma in the momentum equation. The Fokker-Planck equation contains two dimensionless parameters, lambda and epsilon; lambda is the ratio of the rotary diffusion time Dr-1 to the torque relaxation time B (balancing gravitational and viscous torques), while epsilon is a scale for the local vorticity or strain rate made dimensionless with B. In this paper we solve the Fokker-Planck equation exactly for epsilon = 0 (lambda arbitrary) and also obtain the first-order solution for small epsilon. Using experimental data on Vc and D obtained with the swimming alga, Chlamydomonas nivalis, in the absence of bulk flow, the epsilon = 0 results can be used to estimate the value of lambda for that species (lambda approximately 2.2; Dr approximately 0.13 s-1). The continuum model for small epsilon is then used to reanalyse the instability of a uniform suspension, previously investigated by Pedley, Hill & Kessler (1988). The only qualitatively different result is that there no longer seem to be circumstances in which disturbances with a non-zero vertical wavenumber are more unstable than purely horizontal disturbances. On the way, it is demonstrated that the only significant contribution to sigma, other than the basic Newtonian stress, is that derived from the stresslets associated with the cells' intrinsic swimming motions.

NASA Discipline Number 28-20↗
NASA NTRS1996

Two-stage model of radon-induced malignant lung tumors in rats: effects of cell killing

A two-stage stochastic model of carcinogenesis is used to analyze lung tumor incidence in 3750 rats exposed to varying regimens of radon carried on a constant-concentration uranium ore dust aerosol. New to this analysis is the parameterization of the model such that cell killing by the alpha particles could be included. The model contains parameters characterizing the rate of the first mutation, the net proliferation rate of initiated cells, the ratio of the rates of cell loss (cell killing plus differentiation) and cell division, and the lag time between the appearance of the first malignant cell and the tumor. Data analysis was by standard maximum likelihood estimation techniques. Results indicate that the rate of the first mutation is dependent on radon and consistent with in vitro rates measured experimentally, and that the rate of the second mutation is not dependent on radon. An initial sharp rise in the net proliferation rate of initiated cell was found with increasing exposure rate (denoted model I), which leads to an unrealistically high cell-killing coefficient. A second model (model II) was studied, in which the initial rise was attributed to promotion via a step function, implying that it is due not to radon but to the uranium ore dust. This model resulted in values for the cell-killing coefficient consistent with those found for in vitro cells. An "inverse dose-rate" effect is seen, i.e. an increase in the lifetime probability of tumor with a decrease in exposure rate. This is attributed in large part to promotion of intermediate lesions. Since model II is preferable on biological grounds (it yields a plausible cell-killing coefficient), such as uranium ore dust. This analysis presents evidence that a two-stage model describes the data adequately and generates hypotheses regarding the mechanism of radon-induced carcinogenesis.

NASA Program Radiation Health↗