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The basic reference material for gust design criteria are cited. The status of clear air turbulence meteorology (forecasting and detection) is discussed. The directions of further research technology is indicated.
Among the topics discussed are mesoscale processes and variability, regional and cyclonic scale motions and their prediction modeling, fronts, mesoscale instabilities, buoyancy (gravity) waves and topographic forcing, buoyant convection, boundary layers, and observational technology. The specific issues investigated include methods for initializing mesoscale forecast models, an energy theory for the propagation of gravity currents, a theory for rain bands within extratropical cyclones, the morning glory as a nonlinear wave phenomenon, cumulus clouds, the prediction of severe convection, planetary boundary layer parameterization, and three-dimensional wind field analysis from Doppler radar data.
FORECAST 2 has accomplished its objectives of identifying high leverage technologies for corporate Air Force review. Implementation is underway with emphasis on restructuring existing programs and programming resources in the FY88 BES/FY89 POM. Many joint service/agency opportunities exist.
Long duration missions pose substantial new challenges for solid waste management in Advanced Life Support (ALS) systems. These possibly include storing large volumes of waste material in a safe manner, rendering wastes stable or sterilized for extended periods of time, and/or processing wastes for recovery of vital resources. This is further complicated because future missions remain ill-defined with respect to waste stream quantity, composition and generation schedule. Without definitive knowledge of this information, development of requirements is hampered. Additionally, even if waste streams were well characterized, other operational and processing needs require clarification (e.g. resource recovery requirements, planetary protection constraints). Therefore, the development of solid waste management (SWM) subsystem requirements for long duration space missions is an inherently uncertain, complex and iterative process. The intent of this paper is to address some of the difficulties in writing requirements for missions that are not completely defined. This paper discusses an approach and motivation for ALS SWM requirements development, the characteristics of effective requirements, and the presence of those characteristics in requirements that are developed for uncertain missions. Associated drivers for life support system technological capability are also presented. A general means of requirements forecasting is discussed, including successive modification of requirements and the need to consider requirements integration among subsystems.
NASA/JPL has developed a new, precise, global, GPS-based capability for real-time terrestrial and space platform navigation. It has been demonstrated on Earth's surface and is 10 times more accurate than other real-time GPS-based systems. The new system poses certain advantages for Earth science remote sensing, including: the onboard generation of science data products in real-time, sensor control and reduction of data transmission bandwidth, improved environmental forecasting, autonomous and intelligent platform control, operations cost savings, and technology transfer and commercial partnership opportunities. The system's measurement capabilities and applications, demonstrated orbit accuracies, and precision LEO and spacecraft positioning and timing are highlighted.
Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.
The development of next generation systems often carries with it the promise of improved performance, greater reliability, and reduced operational costs. These expectations arise from the use of novel designs, new materials, advanced integration and production technologies intended for functionality replacing the previous generation. However, the novelty of these nascent technologies is accompanied by lack of operational experience and, in many cases, no actual testing as well. Therefore some of the enthusiasm surrounding most new technologies may be due to inflated aspirations from lack of knowledge rather than actual future expectations. This paper proposes a design heritage approach for improved reliability forecasting of advanced system components. The basis of the design heritage approach is to relate advanced system components to similar designs currently in operation. The demonstrated performance of these components could then be used to forecast the expected performance and reliability of comparable advanced technology components. In this approach the greater the divergence of the advanced component designs from the current systems the higher the uncertainty that accompanies the associated failure estimates. Designers of advanced systems are faced with many difficult decisions. One of the most common and more difficult types of these decisions are those related to the choice between design alternatives. In the past decision-makers have found these decisions to be extremely difficult to make because they often involve the trade-off between a known performing fielded design and a promising paper design. When it comes to expected reliability performance the paper design always looks better because it is on paper and it addresses all the know failure modes of the fielded design. On the other hand there is a long, and sometimes very difficult road, between the promise of a paper design and its fulfillment; with the possibility that sometimes the reliability promise is not fulfilled at all. Decision makers in advanced technology areas have always known to discount the performance claims of a design to a degree in proportion to its stage of development, and at times have preferred the more mature design over the one of lesser maturity even with the latter promising substantially better performance once fielded. As with the broader measures of performance this has also been true for projected reliability performance. Paper estimates of potential advances in design reliability are to a degree uncertain in proportion to the maturity of the features being proposed to secure those advances. This is especially true when performance-enhancing features in other areas are also planned to be part of the development program.
Spaceborne lidar profiling of aerosol and cloud layers has been successfully implemented during a number of prior missions, including LITE, ICESat, and CALIPSO. Each successive mission has added increased capability and further expanded the role of these unique measurements in wide variety of applications ranging from climate, to air quality, to special event monitoring (ie, volcanic plumes). Many researchers have come to rely on the availability of profile data from CALIPSO, especially data coincident with measurements from other A-Train sensors. The CALIOP lidar on CALIPSO continues to operate well as it enters its fifth year of operations. However, active instruments have more limited lifetimes than their passive counterparts, and we are faced with a potential gap in lidar profiling from space if the CALIOP lidar fails before a new mission is operational. The ATLID lidar on EarthCARE is not expected to launch until 2015 or later, and the lidar component of NASA's proposed Aerosols, Clouds, and Ecosystems (ACE) mission would not be until after 2020. Here we present a new aerosol and cloud lidar that was recently selected to provide profiling data from the International Space Station (ISS) starting in 2013. The Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) is a three wavelength (1064,532,355 nm) elastic backscatter lidar with HSRL capability at 532 nm. Depolarization measurements will be made at all wavelengths. The primary objective of CATS is to continue the CALIPSO aerosol and cloud profile data record, ideally with overlap between both missions and EarthCARE. In addition, the near real time (NRT) data capability ofthe ISS will enable CATS to support operational applications such as aerosol and air quality forecasting and special event monitoring. The HSRL channel will provide a demonstration of technology and a data testbed for direct extinction retrievals in support of ACE mission development. An overview of the instrument and mission will be provided, along with a summary of the science objectives and simulated data. Input from the ICAP community is desired to help plan our NRT mission goals and interactions with ICAP forecasters.
The present status of thermal barrier coatings is reviewed including both experimental results and forecasts of the benefits derived from use of these coatings in aircraft and utility gas turbines. The potential of thermal barrier coatings relative to structural ceramics is discussed along with a development plan for these coatings.
The needs for and remote sensing means of global crop forecasting are discussed, and key results of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) are presented. Current crop production estimates provided by foreign countries are shown often to be inadequate, and the basic elements of crop production forecasts are reviewed. The LACIE project is introduced as a proof-of-concept experiment designed to assimilate remote sensing technology, monitor global wheat production, evaluate key technical problems, modify the technique accordingly and demonstrate the feasibility of a global agricultural monitoring system. The global meteorological data, sampling and aggregation techniques, Landsat data analysis procedures and yield forecast procedures used in the experiment are outlined. Accuracy assessment procedures employed to evaluate LACIE technology performance are presented, and improvements in system efficiency and capacity during the three years of operation are pointed out. Results of LACIE estimates of Soviet, U.S. and Canadian wheat production are presented which demonstrate the feasibility and accuracy of the remote-sensing approach for global food and fiber monitoring.
Research and development organizations that push the innovation edge of technology frequently encounter challenges when attempting to identify an investment strategy and to accurately forecast the cost and schedule performance of selected projects. Fast moving and complex environments require managers to quickly analyze and diagnose the value of returns on investment versus allocated resources. Our Project Assessment Framework through Design (PAFTD) tool facilitates decision making for NASA senior leadership to enable more strategic and consistent technology development investment analysis, beginning at implementation and continuing through the project life cycle. The framework takes an integrated approach by leveraging design principles of useability, feasibility, and viability and aligns them with methods employed by NASA's Independent Program Assessment Office for project performance assessment. The need exists to periodically revisit the justification and prioritization of technology development investments as changes occur over project life cycles. The framework informs management rapidly and comprehensively about diagnosed internal and external root causes of project performance.
Technology advancements and integration of modern advanced metering systems can monitor, forecast, inform, control, and operate the building's mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) systems. They offer a higher level of information, which can contribute to making smart buildings more energy efficient and to making them closer to becoming grid-interactive energy efficient buildings (GEB). This paper builds on the ongoing research on variability analysis of a case study building with a 1-minute load profile and examines the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) process in the frequency domain to quantify the signal's energy in each bandwidth, with respect to each end-use category. Moreover, the amount of variability in the total variability is not similar among the end-use categories. This information is needed to understand the behavior of the variability in the frequency domain for future applications, such as generating synthetic load profiles with a similar frequency spectrum as the measured signal.
Space technology developments for World Weather Watch, discussing satellites role in weather forecasting, meteorological sensor and instrumentation
A series of operational meteorological monitoring satellites (TIROS-N) is described. Emphasis is placed on environmental monitoring instruments onboard the satellites that provide technological advances over previous sensors. Benefits in the areas of weather forecasting, oceanography, water resource management, and flood forecasting are discussed along with the operational capability to collect and transmit environmental data from platforms on land, at sea, and airborne, and to track stations motion. The participation of Canada, Great Britain, and France is mentioned and a description of the launch vehicle is included.
This report discusses a study utilizing a systems analysis approach to determine which NASA missions would benefit from controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) technology. The study focuses on manned missions selected from NASA planning forecasts covering the next half century. Comparison of various life support scenarios for the selected missions and characteristics of projected transportation systems provided data for cost evaluations. This approach identified missions that derived benefits from a CELSS, showed the magnitude of the potential cost savings, and indicated which system or combination of systems would apply. This report outlines the analytical approach used in the evaluation, describes the missions and systems considered, and sets forth the benefits derived from CELSS when applicable.
Very severe cyclonic storm Nargis devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, caused tremendous damage and numerous fatalities, and became one of the 10 deadliest tropical cyclones (TCs) of all time. To increase the warning time in order to save lives and reduce economic damage, it is important to extend the lead time in the prediction of TCs like Nargis. As recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputing technology have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, the ability of a global mesoscale model to predict TC genesis in the Indian Ocean is examined in this study with the aim of improving simulations of TC climate. High-resolution global simulations with real data show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted up to 5 days in advance. Preliminary analysis suggests that improved representations of the following environmental conditions and their hierarchical multiscale interactions were the key to achieving this lead time: (1) a westerly wind burst and equatorial trough, (2) an enhanced monsoon circulation with a zero wind shear line, (3) good upper-level outflow with anti-cyclonic wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, and (4) low-level moisture convergence.
NASA IST Program is now designing and developing Digital Twins of the Earth and/or Earth systems. Earth System Digital Twins (ESDTs) are information systems for understanding, forecasting, and conjecturing the complex interconnections among Earth systems, including anthropomorphic forcings and impacts to humanity. This presentation will address the main technology and architecture challenges that need to be addressed to develop end-to-end ESDTs; along with these challenges, some of the solutions proposed by IST projects will be discussed.
Since Explorer 1 was launched on January 31, 1958, the United States (U.S.) has reaped the benefits of space exploration. New markets and new technologies have spurred the economy and changed lives in many ways across the national security, civil, and commercial sectors. Space technologies and space-based capabilities now provide global communications, navigation and timing, weather forecasting, and more. Space exploration also presents challenges that impact not only the U.S. but also its allies and other partners. A significant increase in the volume and diversity of activity in space means that it is becoming increasingly congested. Emerging commercial ventures such as satellite servicing, in-space manufacturing, and tourism as well as new technologies enabling small satellites and large constellations of satellites present serious challenges for safely and responsibly using space in a stable, sustainable manner. To meet these challenges, the U.S. seeks to improve global awareness of activity in space by publicly sharing flight safety-related information and by coordinating its own on-orbit activity in a safer, more responsible manner. It seeks to bolster stability and reduce current and future operational on-orbit risks so that space is sustained for future generations. To this end, new and better Space Situational Awareness (SSA) capabilities are needed to keep pace with the increased congestion, and the U.S. seeks to create a dynamic environment that encourages and rewards commercial providers who improve these capabilities. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Best Practices Handbook reflects how NASA currently operates, which has evolved over time. Consideration is given to important topics such as spacecraft and constellation design; spacecraft “trackability;” pre-launch preparation and early launch activities; on-orbit collision avoidance; and automated trajectory guidance and maneuvering. This talk aims to present examples of responsible practices for spacecraft Owners/Operators (O/O) to consider for lowering collision risks and operating safely in space (from LEO and beyond) in a stable and sustainable manner. As technology and innovation continues to improve upon existing capabilities, what kind of new challenges are presented in the SSA community? Can space exploration and commercial ventures thrive while keeping paramount the safety and protection of the space environment? What are the challenges and opportunities that need to be addressed and considered for space situational awareness in Cis-Lunar Space? It may prove useful for entities offering, or intending to offer, SSA or Conjunction Assessment (CA) services to consider such examples of responsible practices to protect the space environment for future use by all.