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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Baselining the Indirect Effect by Improving Quantification of Sea Spray and Marine Sources at Ascension Island (Final Report)

Oceans cover two-thirds of the Earth and understanding the interactions of aerosols with clouds in these large marine regions requires quantifying the man-made contributions to the budget of cloud-drop forming particles (known as cloud condensation nuclei, or CCN) relative to the non-manmade “baseline” conditions and understanding the meteorology of boundary layer clouds. Modeling studies have shown substantial uncertainties and sensitivities to natural marine CCN sources, meaning that to reduce uncertainties in indirect effects we must be able to better quantify the CCN budget in ocean regions. While models provide important constraints on these uncertainties, actually reducing uncertainties requires substantial observations in open-ocean and coastal regions in order to establish the baseline on which manmade emissions are added. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean is one of the least-sampled regions of the planet, making the comprehensive measurements of the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign provides the longest record of aerosol size distribution measurements from a differential mobility analyzer in a cloud-influenced marine location in the ARM database, with 17 months of ground-based aerosol size distribution measurements. This project addressed the research topic of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (ACI) by supporting three publications from the LASIC measurements: 1. The ARM measurements were combined with a new value-added technique that was pioneered by the Russell group for quantifying sea salt. This quantification of sea salt uses supermicron scattering measurements for retrieving reasonable sea spray mass concentrations, providing the best-available, observationally-constrained estimate of the sea spray mode properties when supermicron size distribution measurements are not available. 2. The fitted modes of the distribution were used to investigate the signatures of cloud processing for very clean to very smoky aerosol conditions, revealing not only differences in the particles that activate in clouds but also in the mechanisms that control that droplet formation process. In clean air, the size required to form a cloud droplet is influenced by the number of particles, as well as how quickly particles take up water during growth in cloud. 3. Building on this aerosol characterization, cloud and meteorological conditions were used to evaluate aerosol-related changes in cloud albedo and optical depth. We introduced a new method of decomposing the impact of aerosols on clouds known as the Twomey effect by incorporating retrieved supersaturation from two independent sets of observations to constrain the feedback of aerosol particles on cloud properties. The method quantifies the reduction of the Twomey effect at high aerosol concentrations, which has never been explained quantitatively by observations. In addition, the results provide the first direct validation for the conditions observed in the tropical South Atlantic of a parcel-based approach that is embedded in many climate models. Together these findings illustrate how ARM extended field campaigns in stratocumulus-covered regions can be used to constrain ACI processes with direct observations, providing specific radiative effects without models. By making such process-specific constraints available to improve ACI in global climate models, ARM observations play a key role in supporting model development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interactions between land use, fires, and dust as drivers of global climate change (Final Technical Report)

This award to UC Irvine and Cornell University led to the publication of 18 papers, three of which are highly cited. According to ISI Web of Science, the body of work from this grant has been cited over 476 times by May 2025. Several additional publications remain in review. This grant contributed to several significant science advances, including an improved understanding of the influence of fire aerosols on global photosynthesis (Xu et al., 2021), dust-driven teleconnections between Africa and South America (Li et al., 2021), the role of fire aerosols in triggering phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic (Ardyna et al., 2022), and wildfire responses to heat waves (Li et al., in review). Several other studies are being written up for publication, and will acknowledge funding support. These efforts include an analysis in which the magnitude of tropical fire emissions from land use change is constrained by comparing E3SMv3 simulations with atmospheric observations. This work has revealed that carbon cycle model estimates of land use change may considerably overestimate the global tropical deforestation flux. The project also contributed to several technical advances, including a new process-based and scale-aware desert dust emission scheme for global climate models (Leung et al., 2023), an improved representation of dust and its influence on radiation in E3SM (Feng et al., 2022), an improved representation of the dust parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (Li et al., 2022), and an improved coupling of wildfires with atmospheric chemistry in E3SM v3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mesoscale Organization in Cumulus-Coupled Stratocumulus

Marine cloud systems cover a substantial portion of the world’s oceans. Most of these clouds form relatively close to the ocean surface, typically within one to two kilometers, a region referred to by meteorologists as the marine boundary layer. They are composed predominantly of liquid water, although ice particles can occur in mid- and high-latitude marine clouds during winter. In satellite imagery, these clouds appear bright against the darker ocean surface below, reflecting a large fraction of incoming sunlight back into space that would otherwise warm the ocean. Because marine boundary layer clouds cover such an extensive area of the ocean, they exert a significant influence on Earth’s overall transfer of solar energy absorbed by the surface and thermal energy emitted to space, a balance known as the planetary radiation budget. Marine boundary layer clouds are typically thin, and their formation and dissipation depend on a delicate balance between processes acting at the ocean surface below and the warm, dry air above. They are notoriously difficult to simulate accurately in weather forecast models, which often produce too few marine low clouds in midlatitudes and clouds in tropical regions that are excessively bright, meaning they reflect too much solar radiation. The marine boundary layer is frequently characterized by widespread overcast cloud cover that often transitions from a continuous, single-layer deck to more broken cloud fields toward the tropics. These transitions typically proceed through an intermediate stage in which shallow, broken clouds form beneath the overlying stratiform cloud deck. Once broken clouds develop below the overcast, they frequently self-organize into cloud clusters known as marine boundary layer convective complexes (MBLCCs), although the mechanisms governing the formation and organization of MBLCCs remain poorly understood. Accurately representing these transitions in long-range weather forecast models is essential because they influence the properties of air masses advected over the continental United States and Europe, and they become increasingly important for forecasts on seasonal and longer timescales. We employed two complementary approaches to investigate the processes controlling MBLCCs and their impact on marine cloud cover. Long-term observations from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) Observatory provided a unique dataset that allowed us to characterize fundamental properties of MBLCCs, including their typical size and frequency of occurrence. These observations were combined with high-resolution numerical simulations performed on supercomputers to examine the evolution of MBLCCs during cold-air outbreaks over the ENA region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Turbine Damage Probability

Damage probability maps for offshore wind turbines exposed to tropical cyclones (TCs) under both historical and future climate scenarios along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are presented in this dataset. TCs are generated using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT), forced by CMIP6 historical and future global climate simulations. Maximum wind speeds for 20- and 50-year TCs are processed through a fragility function specific to offshore wind (OSW) turbines in order to estimate the probability of damage – specifically yielding and buckling – based on wind speed intensity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Antarctic Soils Select Copiotroph-Dominated Bacteria

The life strategies of bacterial communities determine their structure and function and are an important driver of biogeochemical cycling. However, the variations in these strategies under different soil resource conditions remain largely unknown. We explored the bacterial life strategies and changes in structure and functions between Antarctic soils and forest (temperate, subtropical, and tropical) soils. The results showed that the weighted mean rRNA operon copy number in temperate soils was 19.5% lower than that in Antarctic soils, whereas no significant differences were observed among Antarctic, subtropical, and tropical soils. An unexpected result was that bacterial communities in Antarctic soils tended to be copiotrophs, such as Actinobacteriota and Bacteroidota, whereas those in temperate soils tended to be oligotrophs, such as Acidobacteriota and Chloroflexi. Functional predictions showed that in comparison to copiotrophs in Antarctic soils, temperate-inhabiting oligotrophic bacteria exhibited an 84.2–91.1% lower abundance of labile C decomposition genes (hemicellulose, cellulose, monosaccharides, and disaccharides), whereas a 74.4% higher abundance of stable C decomposition (lignin). Genes involved in N cycling (nitrogen fixation, assimilatory nitrate reduction, and denitrification) were 24.3–64.4% lower in temperate soils than in Antarctic soils. Collectively, our study provides a framework for describing the life strategies of soil bacteria, which are crucial to global biogeochemical cycles.

Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling the chemistry and transport impacts of the quasi-biennial oscillation on stratospheric ozone

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical winds perturbs stratospheric ozone throughout much of the atmosphere via changes in transport of ozone and other trace gases, as well as via temperature changes, both of which alter ozone chemistry. Attributing these causes of QBO–ozone variability may provide insights into model-to-model differences that contribute to ozone simulation. Here we develop a novel metric of steady-state ozone (SSO) to separate these effects: SSO calculates the local steady-state response of ozone due to the changes in temperature, chemical species, and overhead ozone column; the response due to circulation change is presumed when SSO shows no response. It is applied to the nudged Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) with interactive ozone chemistry to demonstrate its validity. The E3SMv2 simulations nudged to reanalysis data produced reasonable wind and ozone patterns, especially in the tropics. Consistent with previous studies, we find clear demarcations with pressure. Ozone perturbations in the upper stratosphere (<6 hPa) are predicted by temperature changes; those between 6 and 20 hPa are predicted by NO y changes, and those in the lower stratosphere show no temperature or NO y response and are presumably driven by circulation changes. These results are important for diagnosing model-to-model discrepancy in QBO–ozone response and enhancing the reliability of ozone projections.

Xie, Jinbo [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global and regional hydrological impacts of global forest expansion

Abstract. Large-scale reforestation, afforestation, and forest restoration schemes have gained global support as climate change mitigation strategies due to their significant carbon dioxide removal (CDR) potential. However, there has been limited research into the unintended consequences of forestation from a biophysical perspective. In the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), we apply a global forestation scenario, within a Paris Agreement-compatible warming scenario, to investigate the land surface and hydroclimate response. Compared to a control scenario where land use is fixed to present-day levels, the forestation scenario is up to 2 °C cooler at low latitudes by 2100, driven by a 10 % increase in evaporative cooling in forested areas. However, afforested areas where grassland or shrubland are replaced lead to a doubling of plant water demand in some tropical regions, causing significant decreases in soil moisture (∼ 5 % globally, 5 %–10 % regionally) and water availability (∼ 10 % globally, 10 %–15 % regionally) in regions with increased forest cover. While there are some increases in low cloud and seasonal precipitation over the expanded tropical forests, with enhanced negative cloud radiative forcing, the impacts on large-scale precipitation and atmospheric circulation are limited. This contrasts with the precipitation response to simulated large-scale deforestation found in previous studies. The forestation scenario demonstrates local cooling benefits without major disruption to global hydrodynamics beyond those already projected to result from climate change, in addition to the cooling associated with CDR. However, the water demands of extensive forestation, especially afforestation, have implications for its viability, given the uncertainty in future precipitation changes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evolution of oxygen and stratification and their relationship in the North Pacific Ocean in CMIP6 Earth system models

Abstract. This study examines the linkages between the upper-ocean (0–200 m) oxygen (O2) content and stratification in the North Pacific Ocean using four Earth system models (ESMs), an ocean hindcast simulation, and an ocean reanalysis. The trends and variability in oceanic O2 content are driven by the imbalance between physical supply and biological demand. Physical supply is primarily controlled by ocean ventilation, which is responsible for the transport of O2-rich surface waters to the subsurface. Isopycnic potential vorticity (IPV), a quasi-conservative tracer proportional to density stratification that can be evaluated from temperature and salinity measurements, is used herein as a dynamical proxy for ocean ventilation. The predictability potential of the IPV field is evaluated through its information entropy. The results highlight a strong O2–IPV connection and somewhat higher (as compared to the rest of the basin) predictability potential for IPV across the tropical Pacific, where the El Niño–Southern Oscillation occurs. This pattern of higher predictability and strong anticorrelation between O2 and stratification is robust across multiple models and datasets. In contrast, IPV at mid-latitudes has low predictability potential and its center of action differs from that of O2. In addition, the locations of extreme events or hotspots may or may not differ between the two fields, with a strong model dependency, which persists in future projections. On the one hand, these results suggest that it may be possible to monitor ocean O2 in the tropical Pacific based on a few observational sites co-located with the more abundant IPV measurements; on the other, they lead us to question the robustness of the IPV–O2 relationship in the extratropics. The proposed framework helps to characterize and interpret O2 variability in relation to physical variability and may be especially useful in the analysis of new observation-based data products derived from the BGC-Argo float array in combination with the traditional but far more abundant Argo data.

Novi, Lyuba↗
DOE OSTI2024

Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions

Recent studies have highlighted the increasingly dominant role of external forcing in driving Atlantic and Pacific Ocean variability during the second half of the 20th century. This paper provides insights into the underlying mechanisms driving interactions between modes of variability over the two basins. We define a set of possible drivers of these interactions and apply causal discovery to reanalysis data, two ensembles of pacemaker simulations where sea surface temperatures in either the tropical Pacific or the North Atlantic are nudged to observations, and a pre-industrial control run. We also utilize large-ensemble means of historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to quantify the effect of external forcing and improve the understanding of its impact. A causal analysis of the historical time series between 1950 and 2014 identifies a regime switch in the interactions between major modes of Atlantic and Pacific climate variability in both reanalysis and pacemaker simulations. A sliding window causal analysis reveals a decaying El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect on the Atlantic as the North Atlantic fluctuates towards an anomalously warm state. The causal networks also demonstrate that external forcing contributed to strengthening the Atlantic's negative-sign effect on ENSO since the mid-1980s, where warming tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures induce a La Niña-like cooling in the equatorial Pacific during the following season through an intensification of the Pacific Walker circulation. The strengthening of this effect is not detected when the historical external forcing signal is removed in the Pacific pacemaker ensemble. The analysis of the pre-industrial control run supports the notion that the Atlantic and Pacific modes of natural climate variability exert contrasting impacts on each other even in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. The interactions are shown to be modulated by the (multi)decadal states of temperature anomalies of both basins with stronger connections when these states are “out of phase”. We show that causal discovery can detect previously documented connections and provides important potential for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving changes in regional and global climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

RCEMIP-II: mock-Walker simulations as phase II of the radiative–convective equilibrium model intercomparison project

Abstract. The radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) model intercomparison project (RCEMIP) leveraged the simplicity of RCE to focus attention on moist convective processes and their interactions with radiation and circulation across a wide range of model types including cloud-resolving models (CRMs), general circulation models (GCMs), single-column models, global cloud-resolving models, and large-eddy simulations. While several robust results emerged across the spectrum of models that participated in the first phase of RCEMIP (RCEMIP-I), two points that stand out are (1) the strikingly large diversity in simulated climate states and (2) the strong imprint of convective self-aggregation on the climate state. However, the lack of consensus in the structure of self-aggregation and its response to warming is a barrier to understanding. Gaining a deeper understanding of convective aggregation and tropical climate will require reducing the degrees of freedom with which convection can vary. Therefore, we propose phase II of RCEMIP (RCEMIP-II) that utilizes a prescribed sinusoidal sea surface temperature (SST) pattern to provide a constraint on the structure of convection and move one critical step up the model hierarchy. This so-called “mock-Walker” configuration generates features that resemble observed tropical circulations. The specification of the mock-Walker protocol for RCEMIP-II is described, along with example results from one CRM and one GCM. RCEMIP-II will consist of five required simulations: three simulations with the same three mean SSTs as in RCEMIP-I but with an SST gradient and two additional simulations at one of the mean SSTs with different values of the SST gradients. We also test the sensitivity to the imposed SST gradient and the domain size. Under weak SST gradients, unforced self-aggregation emerges across the entire domain, similar to what was found in RCEMIP. As the SST gradient increases, the convective region narrows and is more confined to the warmest SSTs. At warmer mean SSTs and stronger SST gradients, low-frequency variability in the convective aggregation emerges, suggesting that simulations of at least 200 d may be needed to achieve robust equilibrium statistics in this configuration. Simulations with different domain sizes generally have similar mean statistics and convective structures, depending on the value of the SST gradient. The prescribed SST boundary condition is the only difference in the set-up between RCEMIP-II and RCEMIP-I, which enables comparison between the two; however, we also welcome participation in RCEMIP-II from models that did not participate in RCEMIP-I.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Experimental protocol for phase 1 of the APARC QUOCA (QUasibiennial oscillation and Ozone Chemistry interactions in the Atmosphere) working group

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the main mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere, influencing the predictability of other regions in the atmosphere through its teleconnections to the stratospheric polar vortices and coupling to surface tropical and extratropical variability. However, climate and forecasting models consistently underestimate QBO amplitudes in the lower stratosphere, likely contributing to their failure to simulate these teleconnections. One underexplored contributor to model biases is missing representation of ozone-radiative feedbacks, which enhance temperature variability in the lower stratosphere, particularly at periods at and greater than the QBO (>28 months). While previous studies suggest that ozone-radiative feedbacks can impact QBO periods, amplitudes and the associated secondary circulation in the lower stratosphere, the reported impacts differ widely among models and are hard to interpret due to differences in methodology. To this end, here we propose a coordinated experimental protocol – held joint between the Atmospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (APARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Initiative (QBOi) and Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI) activities – which is aimed at assessing the coupling between stratospheric ozone, temperature and the circulation. We use the proposed experiments to define the ozone feedback on the QBO in both present-day and idealized (abrupt quadrupling of carbon dioxide) climates. While primary focus is on the QBO, the proposed protocol also enables analysis of other aspects of ozone-radiative-dynamical coupling in the atmosphere, including impacts on the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and tropospheric eddy-driven jet responses to future climate change. Here we document the scientific rationale and design of the QUOCA Phase 1 experiments, summarize the data request, and give a brief overview of participating models. Preliminary results using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies E2-2 climate model are used to illustrate sensitivities to certain methodological choices.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Panama Rainforest Changes with Experimental Drought (PaRChED): Initial Effects of Partial Throughfall Exclusion on Soil Dynamics in Lowland Forests Across Variation in Rainfall and Soil Fertility

Changes in rainfall are predicted across tropical regions, with effects on nutrient, water, and carbon cycling. This chapter summarizes results from the first two years of a throughfall exclusion experiment in four lowland Panamanian forests that span a 1,000-mm change in rainfall and variation in soil fertility. Soil respiration (i.e., soil carbon dioxide [CO2 ] flux) declined with throughfall exclusion, with a site*season interaction, and the radiocarbon age of respired carbon was older in exclusion versus control plots. The decline in soil CO2 flux could be related to reduced fine root production and soil microbial biomass. Microbial community composition also changed with throughfall exclusion in infertile soils, and soil nutrients accumulated more in exclusion versus control plots during the dry season. The net effects on soil carbon storage will depend on the relative strengths of these effects over time. Continued research could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks with changes in precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

MSD CoP Webinar: AI and Extreme Events - Overcoming Data Challenges for Improved Characterization of Climate Extremes

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Artificial Intelligence (AI) models require large volumes of data for training and testing. Data requirements present challenges for using AI to explore extreme events with limited observational data. This webinar will showcase two innovative methods developed by part of the European Climate Intelligence (CLINT) project to overcome data challenges and harness AI to improve our understanding of climate extremes. Dr. Ascenso will present his research on data augmentation methods to improve estimates of tropical cyclones using satellite data. His presentation will review established methods for data augmentation and explore opportunities and challenges for using generative AI to generate images of extreme, life-threatening tropical cyclones. Next, Dr. Plesiat will present his research on deep learning techniques to overcome limited observational data sets. His presentation will illustrate deep learning methods to develop AI reconstructions of four climate indices across Europe. Presenters : Dr. Guido Ascenso (post-doctoral researcher, Politecnico di Milano); Dr. Étienne Plésiat (German Climate Computing Centre - DKRZ) Moderator(s): Stefano Galelli (MSD CoP WG Co-Lead), David Gold (MSD CoP WG Co-Lead), Jillian Sturtevant (MSD CoP WG Communications Officer), Matteo Giuliani (Politecnico di Milano, MSD CoP WG Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: October 11, 2024 from 11AM - 1PM ET

AI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data from a throughfall exclusion experiment: Fine root dynamics, morphology, chemistry, and AMF colonization across four lowland Panamanian forests

Fine roots regulate forest nutrient, carbon, and water cycling, yet their variation within and among tropical forests remains under-characterized. We quantified root productivity, disappearance, and stocks to 1 m using minirhizotron imaging, and we measured morphology, elemental composition [root carbon (C), root nitrogen (N), root phosphorus (P)], and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) colonization to 20 cm using ingrowth cores and sequential coring. Sampling took place in four distinct lowland Panamanian forests (32 plots; 8 per forest) from 2018 through 2022 under control and throughfall-exclusion (drought) treatments in the Panama Rainforest Changes with Experimental Drying (PARCHED) experiment.The dataset is presented as an Excel workbook with six tabs. The first tab is the data dictionary. Tab S1 contains ingrowth-core production and mortality, morphology and soil moisture. Tab S2 contains sequential-coring standing stocks with associated morphology and soil moisture. Tab S3 contains minirhizotron row data records to 1 m depth, including per-frame root length and diameter, normalized length metrics, and session timing. Tab S4 contains AMF colonization. Tab S5 contains fine-root chemistry at 0–10 cm, reporting %P, %C, %N, and C:N for samples collected via ingrowth cores and sequential-coring standing stocks. CSV mirrors for each tab are provided, and a KML file supplies coordinates for all 32 plots.Key variables span live and dead fine-root biomass (and coarse fractions where applicable), specific root length (SRL) and area (SRA), diameter, root tissue density (RTD), soil moisture, AMF colonization, root %N, %C, %P, and C:N, along with minirhizotron root length and diameter. Depth, season, treatment, and plot/site identifiers are included to support cross-tab integration and analysis from 0–100 cm (minirhizotron) and 0–20 cm (cores).Units are reported in-column and missing values are coded as NA. No special software is required to open or use the files (Excel, CSV, and KML compatible).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Simulations of Forest Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery in Puerto Rico by ELM-FATES Using Field Measurements

In the past three decades, Puerto Rico (PR) experienced five hurricanes that met or exceeded category three, and they caused severe forest structural damage and elevated tree mortality. To improve our mechanistic understanding of hurricane impacts on tropical forests and assess hurricane-affected forest dynamics in Earth system models, we use in situ forest measurements at the Bisley Experimental Watersheds in Northeast PR to evaluate the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES). The observations show that before Hurricane Hugo, 77.3% of the aboveground biomass (AGB) is from the shade-tolerant plant function type (PFT). The Hugo-induced mortality rates are over ~50%, and they induce a ~39% AGB reduction, which recovers to a level like the pre-Hugo condition in 2014, following a second, lower intensity hurricane, Georges. We perform numerical experiments that simulate damage from Hugo and Georges on the forests, including defoliation, sapwood and structural biomass damage, and hurricane-induced mortality. ELM-FATES can reasonably represent coexistence between the two PFTs–light-demanding and shade-tolerant–for both the pre-Hugo and post-Hugo conditions. The model represents a reasonable size distribution of mid-and large-sized trees although it underestimates AGB, likely due to the overestimated nonhurricane mortality. ELM-FATES temporarily stimulated leaf biomass and diameter increment after Georges, an effect that should be tested with observations of future hurricane defoliation events. This research indicates that addressing model-data mismatches in tree mortality and understory dynamics are essential to simulation of more extreme hurricane effects under climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multivariate environmental and trait-based controls of transpiration in the Central Amazon Rainforest

Tropical forest tree mortality is increasing due to more severe droughts, yet our understanding of how tree traits and life strategies are linked to drought stress has been limited by measurement scarcity. The BIONTE (BIOmass and NuTrient Experiment) near Manaus, Brazil hosts one of the world’s largest sap flow installations, with sensors in 90 canopy trees across a wood density gradient monitored since June 2022. The 2023 El Niño drought provided a unique opportunity to evaluate how water availability impacts tree transpiration. An interpretable machine learning framework was used to study the complex interactions between transpiration and multiple environmental variables such as soil water availability and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and how these interactions vary with wood density and individual trees. We found varying responses of transpiration from different trees during the El Niño drought. Transpiration generally increased with temperature, with stronger effects in wetter areas and in trees with low to medium wood density. However, this response was modulated by stomatal sensitivity to VPD, which constrained transpiration under high atmospheric demand, particularly in intermediate-moisture area. The inflection in transpiration rate at high temperatures (>32°C) underscores the role of stomatal and hydraulic regulation in limiting water loss and protecting trees from excessive evaporative demand. Analysis of soil water contribution to transpiration revealed unimodal patterns in wetter area, with peak contributions near 0.45 cm 3 cm -3 of surface soil water and declining or flat responses beyond that threshold, suggesting a shift from water- to energy-limited transpiration. In contrast, drier areas exhibited limited transpiration sensitivity to soil water conditions and minimal trait-based variation in VPD responses, indicating supply-limited conditions. Despite higher wood density trees being generally more resilient, this study shows diverse tree drought resilience, prompting further investigation into the specific traits and dynamics between environmental variables in regulating transpiration and other physiological processes in trees.

Drought↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global terrestrial nitrogen fixation and its modification by agriculture

Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is the largest natural source of new nitrogen (N) that supports terrestrial productivity, yet estimates of global terrestrial BNF remain highly uncertain. Here, in this study, we show that this uncertainty is partly because of sampling bias, as field BNF measurements in natural terrestrial ecosystems occur where N fixers are 17 times more prevalent than their mean abundances worldwide. To correct this bias, we develop new estimates of global terrestrial BNF by upscaling field BNF measurements using spatially explicit abundances of all major biogeochemical N-fixing niches. We find that natural biomes sustain lower BNF, 65 (52–77) Tg N yr −1 , than previous empirical bottom-up estimates, with most BNF occurring in tropical forests and drylands. We also find high agricultural BNF in croplands and cultivated pastures, 56 (54–58) Tg N yr −1 . Agricultural BNF has increased terrestrial BNF by 64% and total terrestrial N inputs from all sources by 60% over pre-industrial levels. Our results indicate that BNF may impose stronger constraints on the carbon sink in natural terrestrial biomes and represent a larger source of agricultural N than is generally considered in analyses of the global N cycle, with implications for proposed safe operating limits for N use.

Reis Ely, Carla R. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis,↗
DOE OSTI2025

Turbulence-Resolving Simulations of Hurricane Laura (2020): Insights Into Extreme Winds and Eyewall Turbulence

Extreme weather events pose significant risks to coastal and offshore energy infrastructure. In this work, we investigate the structure of mean winds and turbulence near the surface ( z < 300 m) that occurred during Hurricane Laura in 2020 on the US Gulf Coast. To this end, we perform turbulence-resolving simulations (..delta..x = 33.33 m) that encompass the entire eyewall of Hurricane Laura by introducing a novel method that we will refer to as Moving-Mesoscale to Static-LES Integrated Coupling (MOSAIC). The simulation results are validated against surface, boundary-layer, and mid-tropospheric observations. Our analysis of the extreme wind conditions near the surface indicates that the mean wind and turbulence profiles vary greatly at and near the eyewall, resulting in extreme values of mean wind speed (U > 50 m * s-1) and turbulence kinetic energy (k ~ 50 m2 * s-2) at altitudes above 50 m . To investigate in detail the nature of turbulence within the eyewall of the storm, we conduct higher-resolution simulations (..delta..x = 11.11 m) of a portion of the hurricane. We provide a comprehensive statistical description of turbulence in the eyewall region, highlighting the need to employ ..delta..x ~ 10 m grid spacing to capture the integral length-scales near the surface, second- and higher-order central moments (i.e., skewness and kurtosis), and spectral coherence in the flow accurately. These numerical simulations provide the most detailed description of mean winds and turbulent conditions within the eyewall of a historical tropical cyclone to date, illustrating how high-resolution simulations can enhance limited turbulence measurements in hurricanes and giving insight into the extreme conditions threatening offshore and coastal infrastructure.

17 WIND ENERGY↗