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Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series

Abstract. Improving the quantification of soil thermal and physical properties is key to achieving a better understanding and prediction of soil hydro-biogeochemical processes and their responses to changes in atmospheric forcing. Obtaining such information at numerous locations and/or over time with conventional soil sampling is challenging. The increasing availability of low-cost, vertically resolved temperature sensor arrays offers promise for improving the estimation of soil thermal properties from temperature time series, and the possible indirect estimation of physical properties. Still, the reliability and limitations of such an approach need to be assessed. In the present study, we develop a parameter estimation approach based on a combination of thermal modeling, sliding time windows, Bayesian inference, and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to estimate thermal diffusivity and its uncertainty over time, at numerous locations and at an unprecedented vertical spatial resolution (i.e., down to 5 to 10 cm vertical resolution) from soil temperature time series. We provide the necessary framework to assess under which environmental conditions (soil temperature gradient, fluctuations, and trend), temperature sensor characteristics (bias and level of noise), and deployment geometries (sensor number and position) soil thermal diffusivity can be reliably inferred. We validate the method with synthetic experiments and field studies. The synthetic experiments show that in the presence of median diurnal fluctuations ≥ 1.5 ∘C at 5 cm below the ground surface, temperature gradients > 2 ∘C m−1, and a sliding time window of at least 4 d the proposed method provides reliable depth-resolved thermal diffusivity estimates with percentage errors ≤ 10 % and posterior relative standard deviations ≤ 5 % up to 1 m depth. Reliable thermal diffusivity under such environmental conditions also requires temperature sensors to be spaced precisely (with accuracy to a few millimeters), with a level of noise ≤ 0.02 ∘C, and with a bias defined by a standard deviation ≤ 0.01 ∘C. Finally, the application of the developed approach to field data indicates significant repeatability in results and similarity with independent measurements, as well as promise in using a sliding time window to estimate temporal changes in soil thermal diffusivity, as needed to potentially capture changes in bulk density or water content.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lower bias, lower noise CMB lensing with foreground-hardened estimators

Extragalactic foregrounds in temperature maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) severely limit the ability of standard estimators to reconstruct the weak lensing potential. These foregrounds are not fully removable by multifrequency cleaning or masking and can lead to large biases if not properly accounted for. For foregrounds made of a number of unclustered point sources, an estimator for the source amplitude can be derived and deprojected, removing any bias to the lensing reconstruction. We show with simulations that all of the extragalactic foregrounds in temperature can be approximated by a collection of sources with identical profiles, and that a simple bias hardening technique is effective at reducing any bias to lensing, at a minimal noise cost. In this work, we compare the performance and bias to other methods such as "shear-only" reconstruction, and discuss how to jointly deproject any arbitrary number of foregrounds, each with an arbitrary profile. In particular, for a Simons Observatory-like experiment foreground-hardened estimators allow us to extend the maximum multipole used in the reconstruction, increasing the overall statistical power by ~50% over the standard quadratic estimator, both in auto and cross-correlation. We conclude that source hardening outperforms the standard lensing quadratic estimator both in auto- A nd cross-correlation, and in terms of lensing signal-to-noise and foreground bias.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Thermal and magnetic evolution of a crystallizing basal magma ocean in Earth's mantle

We present the thermochemical evolution of a downward crystallizing basal magma ocean (BMO) overlying the liquid outer core and probe its capability to dissipate enough power to generate and sustain an early dynamo. Furthermore, a total of 61 out of 112 scenarios for a BMO with imposed, present-day heat flux, Q BMO , values of 15, 18, and 21 TW and radiogenic heat, Q r , values of 4, 8, and 12 TW fully crystallized during the age of the Earth. Most of these models are energetically capable of inducing magnetic activity for the first 1.5 Gyrs, at least, with durations extending to 2.5 Gyrs; with final core-mantle boundary (CMB) temperatures of 4400 ±500 K-well within current best estimates for inferred temperatures. None of the models with Q BMO = 12 TW achieved a fully crystallized state, which may reflect a lower bound on the present-day heat flux across the CMB. BMO-powered dynamos exhibit strong dependence on the partition coefficient of iron into the liquid layer and its associated melting-point depression for a lower mantle composition at near-CMB conditions-parameters which are poorly constrained to date. Nonetheless, we show that a crystallizing BMO is a plausible mechanism to sustain an early magnetic field.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Thin-Foil Heating with Intense Relativistic Electron Beams

Thin-metal foils are used in intense relativistic beam experiments for various purposes. In planning these experiments and analyzing the results it is often desirable to have an estimate of the temperature reached during the beam pulse. This can be deduced from an estimate of the energy deposited by the beam, and the specific heat capacity of the material, which depends on the temperature. The methodology for doing this is explained herein, and a metric for foil survivability under heating by an intense relativistic electron beam is suggested.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Best Practices for Body Temperature Measurement with Infrared Thermography: External Factors Affecting Accuracy

Infrared thermographs (IRTs) are commonly used during disease pandemics to screen individuals with elevated body temperature (EBT). To address the limited research on external factors affecting IRT accuracy, we conducted benchtop measurements and computer simulations with two IRTs, with or without an external temperature reference source (ETRS) for temperature compensation. The combination of an IRT and an ETRS forms a screening thermograph (ST). We investigated the effects of viewing angle (θ, 0–75°), ETRS set temperature (T ETRS , 30–40 °C), ambient temperature (T atm , 18–32 °C), relative humidity (RH, 15–80%), and working distance (d, 0.4–2.8 m). We discovered that STs exhibited higher accuracy compared to IRTs alone. Across the tested ranges of T atm and RH, both IRTs exhibited absolute measurement errors of less than 0.97 °C, while both STs maintained absolute measurement errors of less than 0.12 °C. The optimal T ETRS for EBT detection was 36–37 °C. When θ was below 30°, the two STs underestimated calibration source (CS) temperature (T CS ) of less than 0.05 °C. The computer simulations showed absolute temperature differences of up to 0.28 °C and 0.04 °C between estimated and theoretical temperatures for IRTs and STs, respectively, considering d of 0.2–3.0 m, T atm of 15–35 °C, and RH of 5–95%. The results highlight the importance of precise calibration and environmental control for reliable temperature readings and suggest proper ranges for these factors, aiming to enhance current standard documents and best practice guidelines. These insights enhance our understanding of IRT performance and their sensitivity to various factors, thereby facilitating the development of best practices for accurate EBT measurement.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Low fractional volume superconductivity in single crystals of Pr{sub 4}Ni{sub 3}O{sub 10} under pressure

Magnetotransport measurements of P⁢r4⁢N⁢i3⁢O10 single crystals performed under externally applied pressures up to 73 GPa in diamond anvil cells with either KBr or Nujol oil as pressure media yield signatures of superconductivity with a maximum onset temperature of approximately 31 K. True zero resistance was not observed, consistent with a nonpercolating superconducting volume fraction. Magnetization measurements provided corroborating evidence of superconductivity, with a pressure-dependent diamagnetic signal occurring below the onset temperature, and an estimate from the absolute value of the susceptibility suggests a superconducting volume fraction on the order of 10%. We observe sample to sample variations in the magnitude and pressure dependence of 𝑇𝑐 as well as a dependence on the configuration of electrical contacts on a given sample. Possible causes of this behavior may be significant inhomogeneities in the pressure and/or damage to the samples induced by the pressure media as well as inhomogeneities in the crystals themselves. The results imply that our as-grown P⁢r4⁢N⁢i3⁢O10 single crystals are not bulk superconductors but that there is a minority structure present within the crystals that is indeed superconductin

Chen, Xinglong↗

Measurements of electron temperature in high-energy-density plasmas using gated x-ray pinhole imaging

We present measurements of spatially and temporally resolved electron temperature in high-energy-density plasmas using gated x-ray pinhole imagers. A 2D image of bremsstrahlung x-ray self-emission from laser-driven plasma plumes is detected at the same time through two pinholes covered with different filter materials. By comparing the attenuated signal through each filter, a spatially resolved electron temperature as low as 0.1 keV can be estimated. Measurements of the plasma plume taken from different directions indicate that imaging through extended plasmas has a negligible effect on the temperature estimates. Methods for estimating the expected signal, selecting filters, and incorporating the response of the detector are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series: Supporting Data

This dataset consists of soil temperature time series that were used to estimate soil thermal diffusivity and its uncertainty trough the probabilistic modelling approach developed and presented in the article named "Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series" and published in Earth Surface Dynamics. There are two compressed (.zip) files that contains synthetic (Synthetic_soiltemp_Teller.zip) and field (Field_soiltemp_Teller.zip) data. There is one MATLAB file that requires MATLAB to execute but any text editor can open it. The Synthetic_soiltemp_Teller.zip file includes 5 comma-delimited data files (.csv) each of which contains soil temperature time series generated through forward modeling (i.e., heat-conduction process in a heterogeneous medium using an explicit finite difference method) to mimic various types of temperature gradients, trend and fluctuations. These synthetic soil temperatures were used to investigate the impact of different environmental conditions on the uncertainty of thermal diffusivity estimates. The Field_soiltemp_Teller.zip file contains 28 comma-delimited data files (.csv) out of which (a) 27 files includes soil temperature time series recorded from 27 temperature probes located in a site along Teller Road about 40 km northwest of Nome, Alaska (64.72°N, 165.94°W), (b) one includes the name and coordinates of the 27 probes. These field soil temperatures were used to infer soil thermal diffusivity at numerous locations and depths in a discontinuous permafrost environment, and to evaluate the links between the estimated soil thermal diffusivity values and soil physical properties. The comma-delimited data files (.csv) of the synthetic and field soil temperature time series includes date and time (UTC) in the first column and soil temperature from 5 cm below the ground surface to 1.05 m depth (with 5 or 10 cm spacing between sensors) in the other columns. The measurements were acquired every 15 minutes. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Searching for the QCD Critical Point Along the Pseudo-critical/Freeze-out Line Using Padé-resummed Taylor Expansions of Cumulants of Conserved Charge Fluctuations

Using high-statistics datasets generated in (2+1)-flavor QCD calculations at finite temperature we construct estimators for the radius of convergence from an eighth order series expansion of the pressure as well as the number density. We show that the estimator for pressure and number density will be identical in the asymptotic limit. In the vicinity of the pseudo-critical temperature, T pc ≃ 156.5 MeV, we find the estimator of the radius of convergence to be µ B /T ≳ 3 for strangeness-neutral matter. We also present results for the pole structure of the Pad´e approximants for the pressure at non-zero values of the baryon chemical potential and show that the pole structure of the [4,4] Pad´e is consistent with not having a critical point at temperatures larger than 135 MeV and a baryon chemical potential smaller than µ B /T ~ 2.5.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Free-energy estimates from nonequilibrium trajectories under varying-temperature protocols

The Jarzynski equality allows the calculation of free-energy differences using values of work measured from nonequilibrium trajectories. The number of trajectories required to accurately estimate free-energy differences in this way grows sharply with the size of work fluctuations, motivating the search for protocols that perform desired transformations with minimum work. However, protocols of this nature can involve varying temperature, to which the Jarzynski equality does not apply. Here, we derive a variant of the Jarzynski equality that applies to varying-temperature protocols, and show that it can have better convergence properties than the standard version of the equality. We derive this modified equality and the associated fluctuation relation within the framework of Markovian stochastic dynamics, complementing related derivations done within the framework of Hamiltonian dynamics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Visual Orbits of Spectroscopic Binaries with the CHARA Array. III. HD 8374 and HD 24546

We present the visual orbits of two long-period spectroscopic binary stars, HD 8374 and HD 24546, using interferometric observations acquired with the CHARA Array and the Palomar Testbed Interferometer. We also obtained new radial velocities from echelle spectra using the APO 3.5 m and Fairborn 2.0 m telescopes. By combining the visual and spectroscopic observations, we solve for the full, three-dimensional orbits and determine the stellar masses and distances to within 3% uncertainty. We then estimate the effective temperature and radius of each component star through Doppler tomography and spectral energy distribution analyses, in order to compare the observed stellar parameters to the predictions of stellar evolution models. For HD 8374, we find masses of M {sub 1} = 1.636 ± 0.050M {sub ⊙} and M {sub 2} = 1.587 ± 0.049M {sub ⊙}, radii of R {sub 1} = 1.84 ± 0.05R {sub ⊙} and R {sub 2} = 1.66 ± 0.12R {sub ⊙}, temperatures of T{sub eff1}=7280±110 K and T{sub eff2}=7280±120 K, and an estimated age of 1.0 Gyr. For HD 24546, we find masses of M {sub 1} = 1.434 ± 0.014M {sub ⊙} and M {sub 2} = 1.409 ± 0.014M {sub ⊙}, radii of R {sub 1} = 1.67 ± 0.06R {sub ⊙} and R {sub 2} = 1.60 ± 0.10R {sub ⊙}, temperatures of T{sub eff1}=6790±120 K and T{sub eff2}=6770±90 K, and an estimated age of 1.4 Gyr. HD 24546 is therefore too old to be a member of the Hyades cluster, despite its physical proximity to the group.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Trees halve urban heat island effect globally but unequal benefits only modestly mitigate climate-change warming

Although tree cover reduces the urban heat island, no global estimate quantifies air temperature reductions by contemporary or future tree cover, currently and with climate change. Here, we estimate these reductions for all 8,919 large urban areas. Current urban tree cover mitigates 41–49% of the maximum potential air-temperature urban heat island that would occur in the absence of tree canopy. Tree canopy reduces summer air temperature by a population-weighted mean of 0.15 ± 0.03 °C, with wide variation (0.0–2.7 °C), benefiting 914 (805–1040, 95% CI) million people by >0.25 °C. Cooling benefits are greater in already cooler areas: high-income countries and suburbs. Current and plausible future tree cover mitigate only ~10% (6.7–18% and 6.3–17%, respectively) of the median mid-century climate-change warming under a moderate emission scenario. Our results suggest tree canopy expansion in densely settled low-income urban areas is necessary for equitable urban heat island mitigation and climate adaptation.

McDonald, Robert I. [The Nature Conservancy (TNC),↗

Self-generated magnetic fields in the hot spot of direct-drive cryogenic implosions at Omega

This work reports that Biermann self-generated magnetic fields of ≈200 MG and Hall parameters of ≈1.5 are produced in the stagnation phase of direct-drive cryogenic implosions at Omega. The magnetic fields produce a drop of 2.4% in fusion yield and 1% in ion temperature. A quantitative estimate of the effect of self-generated magnetic fields on yield and ion temperature is essential, since direct measurements of these fields are not available. Reconstructed simulations of the 50 Gbar implosions, with all the stagnation measurements reproduced simultaneously by a combination of mid- and low-mode asymmetries as degradation mechanisms [Bose et al., Phys. Plasmas 25, 062701 (2018)], are used to obtain the estimates. The magnetic fields cause a decrease in yield due to the Righi–Leduc heat flow, which exceeds any benefits from heat flow suppression due to magnetization. It is important to note that both direct-drive Omega-scale implosions and indirect-drive National Ignition Facility (NIF)-scale implosions [Walsh et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 118, 155001 (2017)] produce similar estimates for the magnetic field strength, and both show a decrease in fusion yield, with the Righi–Leduc transport as the loss mechanism. However, the yield degradation at Omega is small and lower by ≈5× compared to the indirect-drive ignition-scale NIF estimate.

Physics↗

High Temperature Steam Electrolysis Process Performance and Cost Estimates

Technology readiness levels (TRLs) of electrolysis systems have dramatically increased in recent years as the interest in clean hydrogen production and decarbonization of transportation, industrial and other sectors increases across the globe. This is especially true of high temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) / solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) systems which show promise of much higher system efficiencies than other more developed electrolysis technologies. This possibility of higher efficiencies of HTSE / SOEC systems has been previously assumed to be theoretically possible but in recent years it has become less theoretical and more realistic as an increasing amount of suppliers complete lab and pilot tests showing very promising results. Research in the areas of manufacturing techniques, material selection, electrode and electrolyte compositions, and balance of plant size and integration continues at a fast pace as an increasing number of suppliers both internationally and domestically become involved. The advantages of HTSE become more pronounced when HTSE is coupled with nuclear power plants (NPPs). This is because thermal energy produced by the nuclear reactor can be used in a series of heat transfer loops and heat exchangers to vaporize HTSE feedwater, which drastically improves the economics of the process. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has been very involved in the research and modeling of HTSE systems for a number of years, in collaboration with other national laboratories, academia, and industry stakeholders both on the hydrogen production as well as the hydrogen demand side. The modeling completed over the years on a large variety of projects has led to a wealth of knowledge at INL including in the area of the technoeconomic assessment (TEA) of HTSE systems. TEAs include process modeling of the HTSE systems to calculate system energy requirements and equipment sizing, followed by estimation of capital and operating costs to enable calculation of the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). The TEA work performed has produced incremental improvements and tuning of the methods, assumptions, models, and results of the analyses as well as providing some opportunities for validating these results. The purpose of this document is to record the current baseline HTSE analyses led by INL to show the current status of assumptions and costs of these systems. Given the rapid development of this technology, the variety of suppliers entering the space, and the increasing attention government and industry are giving to such systems, this document may be updated on a periodic basis with updated analysis and assumptions. This document compiles various analyses results and approaches completed over a period of years into a single document to be used as a baseline going forward. It represents what the INL HTSE analysis group assumes to be the internal best estimate of the current operation, costs, and landscape of the HTSE industry state of the art capability for current SOEC technology in an Nth-of-a-Kind (NOAK) plant, which in this study is defined as existence of the manufacturing capacity to support previous deployment of N = 100 count of 25 MWe modular HTSE blocks (with modular equipment component cost reductions specified as following a 95% learning curve). That said, This is a public document and as such so no proprietary data was used or included in this report. There may be HTSE suppliers that have performance specifications, and cost estimates, and test data that differ from the analysis presented in this document. This document is meant to be a best conservative estimate of the technology and not an absolute reference.

08 HYDROGEN↗

High Temperature Steam Electrolysis Process Performance and Cost Estimates - DOE Hydrogen Program AMR Presentation

Technology readiness levels (TRLs) of electrolysis systems have dramatically increased in recent years as the interest in clean hydrogen production and decarbonization of transportation, industrial and other sectors increases across the globe. This is especially true of high temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) / solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) systems which show promise of much higher system efficiencies than other more developed electrolysis technologies. This possibility of higher efficiencies of HTSE / SOEC systems has been previously assumed to be theoretically possible but in recent years it has become less theoretical and more realistic as an increasing amount of suppliers complete lab and pilot tests showing very promising results. Research in the areas of manufacturing techniques, material selection, electrode and electrolyte compositions, and balance of plant size and integration continues at a fast pace as an increasing number of suppliers both internationally and domestically become involved. The advantages of HTSE become more pronounced when HTSE is coupled with nuclear power plants (NPPs). This is because thermal energy produced by the nuclear reactor can be used in a series of heat transfer loops and heat exchangers to vaporize HTSE feedwater, which drastically improves the economics of the process. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has been very involved in the research and modeling of HTSE systems for a number of years, in collaboration with other national laboratories, academia, and industry stakeholders both on the hydrogen production as well as the hydrogen demand side. The modeling completed over the years on a large variety of projects has led to a wealth of knowledge at INL including in the area of the technoeconomic assessment (TEA) of HTSE systems. TEAs include process modeling of the HTSE systems to calculate system energy requirements and equipment sizing, followed by estimation of capital and operating costs to enable calculation of the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). The TEA work performed has produced incremental improvements and tuning of the methods, assumptions, models, and results of the analyses as well as providing some opportunities for validating these results. The purpose of this document is to record the current baseline HTSE analyses led by INL to show the current status of assumptions and costs of these systems. Given the rapid development of this technology, the variety of suppliers entering the space, and the increasing attention government and industry are giving to such systems, this document may be updated on a periodic basis with updated analysis and assumptions. This document compiles various analyses results and approaches completed over a period of years into a single document to be used as a baseline going forward. It represents what the INL HTSE analysis group assumes to be the internal best estimate of the current operation, costs, and landscape of the HTSE industry state of the art capability for current SOEC technology in an Nth-of-a-Kind (NOAK) plant, which in this study is defined as existence of the manufacturing capacity to support previous deployment of N = 100 count of 25 MWe modular HTSE blocks (with modular equipment component cost reductions specified as following a 95% learning curve). That said, this is a public document and as such so no proprietary data was used or included in this report. There may be HTSE suppliers that have performance specifications, and cost estimates, and test data that differ from the analysis presented in this document. This document is meant to be a best conservative estimate of the technology and not an absolute reference.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Hot, cold, or just right? An infrared biometric sensor to improve occupant comfort and reduce overcooling in buildings via closed-loop control

To improve occupant comfort and save energy in buildings, we have developed a closed-loop air conditioning (AC) sensor-controller that predicts occupant thermal sensation from the thermographic measurement of skin temperature distribution, then uses this information to reduce overcooling (cooling-energy overuse that discomforts occupants) by regulating AC output. Taking measures to protect privacy, it combines thermal-infrared (TIR) and color (visible spectrum) cameras with machine vision to measure the skin-surface temperature profile. Since the human thermoregulation system uses skin blood flow to maintain thermoneutrality, the distribution of skin temperature can be used to predict warm, neutral, and cool thermal states. We conducted a series of human-subject thermal-sensation trials in cold-to-hot environments, measuring skin temperatures and recording thermal sensation votes. We then trained random-forest classification machine-learning models (classifiers) to estimate thermal sensation from skin temperatures or skin-temperature differences. The estimated thermal sensation was input to a proportional integral (PI) control algorithm for the AC, targeting a sensation level between neutral and warm. Our sensor-controller includes a sensor assembly, server software, and client software. The server software orients the cameras and transmits images to the client software, which in turn assesses occupant skin temperature distribution, estimates occupant thermal sensation, and controls AC operation. A demonstration conducted in a conference room in an office building near Houston, TX showed that our system reduced overcooling, decreasing AC load by 42% when the room was occupied while improving occupant comfort (fraction of “comfortable” votes) by 15 percentage points.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Distributed strain sensing using Bi-metallic coated fiber optic sensors embedded in stainless steel

Silica fiber optic sensors are resistant to corrosive environments and high temperatures, making them attractive candidates for harsh conditions found in nuclear and aerospace industries. Moreover, fibers can be deployed remotely for continuous measuring of spatially distributed temperatures and strains. Here, this study investigated embedding a Ni/Cu bi-metallic coated fiber in a stainless-steel 316 (SS316) matrix using laser powder bed fusion towards functionalizing metal components for site-specific health monitoring. The embedded fiber was continuously interrogated during controlled heating to 1000°C. The measured fiber strains were similar to the expected differential thermal strains between the fiber and the SS316 matrix, until divergent behavior was observed at temperatures >500°C. No debonding at the matrix–coating–fiber interfaces was observed during microscopy, but significant interactions between the coatings and matrix resulted in diffusion-driven chemistry variations and Kirkendall void formation. Applying the strain-lag theory revealed plastic behavior in the Ni coating at temperatures >500°C, limiting the strain transfer to the fiber at higher temperatures. It was estimated that the elastic modulus in the Ni coating had decreased from ~200 GPa at room temperature to below 40 GPa, starting at 600°C. The low elastic modulus above 600°C is within the margin of what the tangent modulus would be in the case of bilinear isotropic hardening. Regardless of the divergent strain transfer at higher temperatures, the fiber was exposed to the equivalent of 1.9 % engineering strain at 1000°C, but measured only a 0.7 % engineering strain due to the poor strain transfer. Although compensating for the plastic behavior of Ni proved challenging, the bonding of a brittle silica fiber to a metal matrix surviving to 1000°C invites potential iterations on coating material for future application. For example, the embedded fiber is sufficient for acoustic energy transfer, realizing high temperature distributed acoustic sensing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Quantifying bias due to non-Gaussian foregrounds in an optimal reconstruction of CMB lensing and temperature power spectra

We estimate the magnitude of the bias due to non-Gaussian extragalactic foregrounds on the optimal reconstruction of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing potential and temperature power spectra. The reconstruction is performed using a Bayesian inference method known as the marginal unbiased score expansion (MUSE). We apply MUSE to a minimum variance combination of multifrequency maps drawn from the Agora publicly available simulations of the lensed CMB and correlated extragalactic foreground emission. Taking noise levels appropriate to the SPT-3G D1 release, we find non-Gaussian foregrounds may bias the MUSE reconstruction of the lensing potential amplitude at the level of (0.7 ± 0.3)σ when using modes up to ℓ max = 3500. We do not detect a statistically significant bias, finding a value of (-0.4 ± 0.3)σ, when restricted to lower angular multipoles, ℓ max = 3000. This work is a first step toward understanding the impact of extragalactic foregrounds on optimal reconstructions of CMB temperature and lensing potential power spectra.

Statistical sampling techniques↗