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NASA NTRS2011

Statistical Models of Fracture Relevant to Nuclear-Grade Graphite: Review and Recommendations

The nuclear-grade (low-impurity) graphite needed for the fuel element and moderator material for next-generation (Gen IV) reactors displays large scatter in strength and a nonlinear stress-strain response from damage accumulation. This response can be characterized as quasi-brittle. In this expanded review, relevant statistical failure models for various brittle and quasi-brittle material systems are discussed with regard to strength distribution, size effect, multiaxial strength, and damage accumulation. This includes descriptions of the Weibull, Batdorf, and Burchell models as well as models that describe the strength response of composite materials, which involves distributed damage. Results from lattice simulations are included for a physics-based description of material breakdown. Consideration is given to the predicted transition between brittle and quasi-brittle damage behavior versus the density of damage (level of disorder) within the material system. The literature indicates that weakest-link-based failure modeling approaches appear to be reasonably robust in that they can be applied to materials that display distributed damage, provided that the level of disorder in the material is not too large. The Weibull distribution is argued to be the most appropriate statistical distribution to model the stochastic-strength response of graphite.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Global Infrared Observations of Roughness Induced Transition on the Space Shuttle Orbiter

High resolution infrared observations made from a mobile ground based optical system captured the laminar-to-turbulent boundary layer transition process as it occurred during Space Shuttle Endeavour's return to earth following its final mission in 2011. The STS-134 imagery was part of a larger effort to demonstrate an emerging and reliable non-intrusive global thermal measurement capability and to complement a series of boundary layer transition flight experiments that were flown on the Shuttle. The STS-134 observations are believed to be the first time that the development and movement of a hypersonic boundary layer transition front has been witnessed in flight over the entire vehicle surface and in particular, at unprecedented spatial resolution. Additionally, benchmark surface temperature maps of the Orbiter lower surface collected over multiple flights and spanning a Mach range of 18 to 6 are now available and represent an opportunity for collaborative comparison with computational techniques focused on hypersonic transition and turbulence modeling. The synergy of the global temperature maps with the companion in-situ thermocouple measurements serve as an example of the effective leveraging of resources to achieve a common goal of advancing our understanding of the complex nature of high Mach number transition. It is shown that quantitative imaging can open the door to a multitude of national and international opportunities for partnership associated with flight-testing and subsequent validation of numerical simulation techniques. The quantitative imaging applications highlighted in this paper offer unique and complementary flight measurement alternatives and suggest collaborative instrumentation opportunities to advance the state of the art in transition prediction and maximize the return on investment in terms of developmental flight tests for future vehicle designs.

Horvath, Thomas J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Characterization of a Laser-Generated Perturbation in High-Speed Flow for Receptivity Studies

A better understanding of receptivity can contribute to the development of an amplitude-based method of transition prediction. This type of prediction model would incorporate more physics than the semi-empirical methods, which are widely used. The experimental study of receptivity requires a characterization of the external disturbances and a study of their effect on the boundary layer instabilities. Characterization measurements for a laser-generated perturbation were made in two different wind tunnels. These measurements were made with hot-wire probes, optical techniques, and pressure transducer probes. Existing methods all have their limitations, so better measurements will require the development of new instrumentation. Nevertheless, the freestream laser-generated perturbation has been shown to be about 6 mm in diameter at a static density of about 0.045 kg/cubic m. The amplitude of the perturbation is large, which may be unsuitable for the study of linear growth.

Chou, Amanda↗

NASA NTRS2020

Securing the legacy of TESS through the care and maintenance of TESS planet ephemerides

Much of the science from the exoplanets detected by the TESS mission relies on precisely predicted transit times that are needed for many follow-up characterization studies. We investigate the severity of ephemeris deterioration for simulated TESS planets and find that the ephemerides of 81% of those will have expired (i.e. mid-transit time uncertainties greater than 30 minutes, impeding the efficient scheduling of follow-up observations) one year after their TESS observations. This rapid deterioration is driven primarily by the relatively short time baseline of TESS observations. In particular, of the simulated planets that would be recommended as potential James Webb Space Telescope targets by Kempton et al. (2018), 80% will have 1 mid-transit time uncertainties greater than 30 minutes by the earliest time JWST would observe them. The recently-approved extension to the TESS mission means that the ephemerides of most (though not all) primary mission planets will eventually be rescued, but the benefits of these new observations can only be reaped two years after the primary mission observations. Moreover, even with the advent of the TESS mission extension, the ephemerides of most primary mission TESS planets (as well as those newly discovered during the extended mission) will again have expired by the time future facilities such as the ELTs, Ariel and the possible LUVOIR/OST missions come online. We identify categories of TESS planets for which the ephemeris deterioration is most severe, and provide strategies for maintaining their ephemerides fresh through additional follow- up transit observations. We find that the longer the baseline between the TESS and the follow-up observations, the longer the ephemerides stay fresh, and that 51% of simulated primary mission TESS planets will require space-based observations to refresh their ephemerides.

Surveys↗

DOE OSTI2025

Digital Twin Framework for PIP-II Linac: AI-Driven Multi-Scale Modeling from Ion Source to 800 MeV

The PIP-II linac will enable >1.2 MW beam power for DUNE, requiring unprecedented operational reliability across its warm front-end (RFQ, MEBT) and five distinct SRF sections operating at 162.5/325/650 MHz. We present a comprehensive digital twin framework uniquely combining a fully differentiable fast beam transport code with neural network surrogates trained on high-fidelity PIC simulations, capturing space charge and nonlinear dynamics beyond traditional envelope codes while achieving 10⁴× speedup at <1% accuracy. End-to-end differentiability enables gradient-based optimization across 500+ parameters simultaneously—previously impossible with conventional tools—while the model incorporates static/dynamic errors and serves as a virtual commissioning platform for diverse hardware integration. The framework facilitates reinforcement learning for pulsed/CW mode transitions, predictive maintenance through anomaly detection, and autonomous tuning algorithm development with real-time execution capability. Validation against physics simulations shows excellent agreement for the front-end, with initial results demonstrating potential for 30% commissioning time reduction and proactive fault mitigation, providing a scalable blueprint for operating next-generation high-intensity accelerators.

Pathak, Abhishek [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000021704208↗

NASA NTRS2019

Predicted Yield of Transits of Known Radial Velocity Exoplanets from the TESS Primary and Extended Missions

Radial velocity (RV) surveys have detected hundreds of exoplanets through their gravitational interactions with their host stars. Some will be transiting, but most lack sufficient follow-up observations to confidently detect (or rule out) transits. We use published stellar, orbital, and planetary parameters to estimate the transit probabilities for nearly all exoplanets that have been discovered via the RV method. From these probabilities, we predict that 25.5 (sup +0.7, sub -0.7) of the known RV exoplanets should transit their host stars. 'This prediction is more than double the amount of RV exoplanets that are currently known to transit The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) presents a valuable opportunity to explore the transiting nature of many of the known RV exoplanet systems. Based on the anticipated pointing of TESS during its two-year primary mission, we identify the known RV exoplanets that it will observe and predict that 11.7 (sup +0.3, sub -0.3) of them will have transits detected by TESS. However, we only expect the discovery of transits for ~3 of these exoplanets to be novel (i.e., not previously known). We predict that the TESS photometry will yield dispositive null results for the transits of ~ 125 RV exoplanets. This will represent a substantial increase in the effort to refine ephemerides of known RV exoplanets. We demonstrate that these results are robust to changes in the ecliptic longitudes of future TESS observing sectors. Finally, we consider how several potential TESS extended mission scenarios affect the number of transiting RV exoplanets we expect TESS to observe.

Thomas Barclay↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Accurate and Efficient Predictions of Martensitic Transition Temperatures for Shape Memory Alloys from First Principles

Recent rapid progresses in physics theory and computational power have made it possible to predict the martensitic transition temperatures (MTTs) in shape memory alloys (SMAs) from first principles [1-3]. In particular, rigorous while time-consuming thermodynamic integration has been employed to compute the anharmonic phonon free energies, which play a crucial role in determining martensitic phase transitions in SMAs. However, this approach has only been applied to simple binaries, and its accuracy is unsatisfying for certain SMAs such as the most commonly used NiTi. In this work, we report on several new developments to our method that bring first-principles theory and experiment much closer into agreement including the MTT of NiTi, and that improve the computational efficiency significantly. We have applied our refined approach to investigate the Ni0.5Ti0.5-xHfx and PdxNi0.5-xTi0.5 ternaries, and the predicted MTT for each composition is within 100K compared with experiment. We will address various techniques to overcome the difficulty encountered in studying ternaries. Our theoretical approach is expected to be a broadly applicable and predictive theory for designing complex SMAs with desirable properties. [1] J.B. Haskins, A.E. Thompson,and J.W. Lawson, Phys. Rev B 94, 214110 (2016). [2] J.B. HaskinsandJ.W. Lawson, J. App. Phys. 121, 205103 (2017). [3] J.B. Haskins, H. Malmir, S. J. Honrao, L. A. Sandoval, and J.W. Lawson, Acta Materialia 212, 116872 (2017).

Zhigang Wu↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Accurate and Efficient Predictions of Martensitic Transition Temperatures for Shape Memory Alloys from First Principles

Zhigang Wu↗

NASA NTRS2005

The NASA Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) Center: A Research to Operations Test Bed

Over the last three years, NASA/MSFC scientists have embarked on an effort to transition unique NASA EOS data/products and research technology to selected NWSEOs in the southeast U.S. This activity, called the Short-term Prediction and - Research Transition (SPoRT) program, supports the NASA Science Mission Directorate and its Earth-Sun System Mission to develop a scientific understanding of the Earth System and its response to natural or human-induced changes that will enable improved prediction capability for climate, weather, and natural hazards. The overarching question related to weather prediction is "How well can weather forecasting duration and reliability be improved by new space-based observations, data assimilation, and modeling?" The transition activity has included the real-time delivery of MODIS data and products to several NWS Forecast Offices. Local NWS FOs have used the MODIS data to complement the coarse resolution GOES data for a number of applications. Specialized products have also been developed and made available to local and remote offices for their weather applications. Data from &e Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) network has been used in severe storm forecasts at several offices in the region. At the regional scale and forecast horizons from 0-1 day, the next generation of high-resolution mesoscale forecast and data assimilation models have been used to provide local offices with unique weather forecasts not otherwise available. The continued use of near red-time infusion of NASA science products into high-resolution mesoscale forecast and decision-making models can be expected to improve the model initialization as well as short-term forecasts. A current focus of SPoRT is to expand collaborations to include contributions from the assimilation of AMSR-E data in the ADASIARPS forecast system (OU), inclusion of MODIS SSTs and AIRS thermodynamic profiles in the WRF, and to extend the distribution of real-time MODIS and AMSR-E data and products to the Florida coastal WFOs. A SPoRT Test bed, together with input from other interagency and university partners, will provide a means and a process to effectively transition ESE observations and technology to NWS operations and decision makers at both the globdnational and regional scales. The transition of emerging experimental products into operations through the SPoRT infrastructure will allow NASA to foster and accelerate the progress of this Science Mission Directorate research strategy over the coming years.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Accurate Predictions of Martensitic Transition Temperatures for Shape Memory Alloys from Ab Initio Simulations

Experimentally, NiTi undergoes a single martensitic phase transition around 341 K from the lowtemperature (T) monoclinic B19’ phase (P21/m) to the high-temperature cubic B2 phase (Pm3m). Theoretically, an orthorhombic B33 (Cmcm) has also been proposed as the T=0 ground state structure, although this phase has never been observed. Accurate predictions of martensitic transition temperatures (MTT) have remained elusive in part due to several well-known theoretical complexities of these systems including low temperature instabilities of the B2 phase. Recently, we proposed a rigorous thermodynamic integration approach based on ab initio simulations to resolve many of these difficulties [1,2]. However, an unsatisfying overprediction of the MTT relative to experiment (by ~100 K) means a fully quantitative theory is still lacking. In this work, we report several new developments to our method that bring first principles theory and experiment much closer into agreement. Our calculations indicate that phonon free energies at low temperature stabilizes B19’ over B33, rationalizing B19’ as the ground state down to T=0. We also find that accurate computations of the electronic free energy, i.e. the change in energy and the appearance of electronic configurational entropy due to finite temperature, is crucial to obtain accurate MTT. Incorporating these corrections results in an MTT prediction of 365 K for binary NiTi, which is in very close agreement with experiment. Our theoretical approach is expected to be a broadly applicable and predictive theory for MTT of SMAs.

Zhigang Wu↗

NASA NTRS1990

Design of laminar flow bodies in compressible flow

An optimization method was developed to design axisymmetric body shapes such as fuselages, nacelles, and external fuel tanks with increased transition Reynolds numbers in subsonic compressible flow. The method involves a constraint minimization procedure coupled with analysis of the inviscid and viscous flow regions, and linear stability analysis of the compressible boundary-layer. Boundary-layer transition is predicted by a 'hybrid' transition criterion based on Granville's transition criterion and a criterion using linear stability theory coupled with the e(sup n)-method. A tiptank of a business jet is used as an example to illustrate that the method can be utilized to design an axisymmetric body shape with extensive natural laminar flow. On the original tiptank boundary layer transition is predicted to occur at a transition Reynolds number of 6.04 x 10 6 on the original tiptank. On the designed body shape a transition Reynolds number of 7.22 x 10 6 is predicted using compressible linear stability theory coupled with e n -method.

Simha S. Dodbele↗

NASA NTRS1990

Design optimization of natural laminar flow fuselages in compressible flow

An optimization method has been developed to design axisymmetric body shapes such as fuselages, nacelles, and external fuel tanks with increased transition Reynolds numbers in subsonic compressible flow. The new design method involves a constraint minimization procedure coupled with analysis of the inviscid and viscous flow regions, and linear stability analysis of the compressible boundary layer. Boundary-layer transition is predicted by a 'hybrid' transition criterion based on Granville's transition criterion and a criterion using linear stability theory coupled with the e(n)-method. A tiptank of a business-jet is used as an example to illustrate that the method can be utilized to design an axisymmetric body shape with extensive natural laminar flow. Boundary layer transition is predicted to occur at a transition Reynolds number of 6.04 x 10 to the 6th on the original tiptank. On the designed body shape, a transition Reynolds number of 7.22 x 10 to the 6th is predicted using compressible linear stability theory coupled with e(n)-method.

Dodbele, Simha S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Climate Information and Lessons Learned from the NASA Earth eXchange (NEX), Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (NASA SPoRT), and the NASA Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES)

Climate resilience can emerge from a combination of (1) climate projections that enable future-oriented planning and (2) contemporary observations that can be used for adaptation in the face of realized climate. NASA is uniquely positioned to provide global climate projections and satellite-based observations to users who must take a global perspective on climate risk (e.g., supply chain managers). Here, we will share the capabilities and experiences of three NASA projects. The first project, the NASA Earth eXchange (NEX) provides two downscaled climate projections, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, a global 25 km resolution product, and NEX-DCP30-CMIP6, an 800 m resolution product covering the coterminous U.S. specifically designed for U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). NEX also offers land surface products that mirror the twice-daily products provided by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) but are derived from operational geostationary weather satellite data collected at 5-10 minutes intervals. The second project, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT), was established in 2002 to transition unique NASA satellite products and capabilities to stakeholders to improve decision-making that benefits society. SPoRT provides products and capabilities derived from NASA observations and models to end users in government, academia, and the private sector. SPoRT translates NASA Earth science into actionable solutions reaching over 400 stakeholders across 80 organizations. Finally, the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) is designed to facilitate regional-scale evaluations of climate models by providing standardized access to a vast and comprehensive set of observations, such as satellite, in-situ, and reanalyses, and modeling resources such as CMIP & CORDEX. These three projects form part of the core capabilities at the NASA Centers deliver climate information under the new NASA Earth Science to Action (ES2A) strategy.

NEX↗

NASA NTRS1968

Predictions of several OH lambda doubling transitions suitable for radio astronomy.

Hydroxyl free radical microwave spectrum definition by doubling transitions frequency predictions, noting radio astronomy applicability

Beaudet, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Direct simulation of high-speed mixing layers

A computational study of a nonreacting high-speed mixing layer is performed. A higher order algorithm with sufficient grid points is used to resolve all relevant scales. In all cases, a temporal free-stream disturbance is introduced. The resulting flow is time-sampled to generate a statistical cross section of the flow properties. The studies are conducted at two convective Mach numbers, three free-stream turbulence intensities, three Reynolds numbers, and two types of initial profiles-hyperbolic tangent (tanh) and boundary layer. The boundary-layer profile leads to more realistic predictions of the transition processes. The predicted transition Reynolds number of 0.18 x 10(exp 6) compares well with experimental data. Normalized vortex spacings for the boundary-layer case are about 3.5 and compare favorably with the 1.5 to 2.5 found in experimental measurements. The tanh profile produces spacings of about 10. The growth rate of the layer is shown to be moderately affected by the initial disturbance field, but comparison with experimental data shows moderate agreement. For the boundary-layer case, it is shown that noise at the Strouhal number of 0.007 is selectively amplified and shows little Reynolds number dependence.

Mukunda, H. S.↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Statistical Model to Predict the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones

This paper introduces a logistic regression model for the extratropical transition(ET) of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and the Western North Pacific, using elastic net regularization to select predictors and estimate coefficients.Predictors are chosen from the 1979-2017 best track and reanalysis datasets, and verification is done against the tropical/extratropical labels in the best track data. In an independent test set, the model skillfully predicts ET at lead times up to two days, with latitude and sea surface temperature as its most important predictors. At a lead time of 24 h, it predicts ET with a Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.4 in the North Atlantic, and 0.6 in the Western North Pacific. It identifies 80% of storms undergoing ET in the North Atlantic, and 92% of those in the Western North Pacific. 90% of transition time errors are less than 24 h. Select examples of the model's performance on individual storms illustrate its strengths and weaknesses.Two versions of the model are presented: an "operational model" that may provide baseline guidance for operational forecasts, and a "hazard model"that can be integrated into statistical TC risk models. As instantaneous diagnostics for tropical/extratropical status, both models' zero lead time predictions perform about as well as the widely used Cyclone Phase Space (CPS) in the Western North Pacific and better than the CPS in the North Atlantic, and predict the timings of the transitions better than CPS in both basins.

Melanie Bieli↗

NASA NTRS2019

Boundary Layer Stability and Laminar-Turbulent Transition Analysis with Thermochemical Nonequilibrium Applied to Martian Atmospheric Entry

As Martian atmospheric entry vehicles increase in size to accommodate larger payloads, transitional ow may need to be taken into account in the design of the heat shield in order to reduce heat shield mass. The mass of the Thermal Protection System (TPS) comprises a significant portion of the vehicle mass, and a reduction of this mass would result in fuel savings. The current techniques used to design entry shields generally assume fully turbulent flow when the vehicle is large enough to expect transitional flow, and while this worst-case scenario provides a greater factor of safety it may also result in overdesigned TPS and unnecessarily high vehicle mass. Greater accuracy in the prediction of transition would also reduce uncertainty in the thermal and aerodynamic loads. Stability analysis, using e(sup⁡ N) -based methods including Linear Stability Theory (LST) and the Parabolized Stability Equations (PSE), offers a physics-based method of transition prediction that has been thoroughly studied and applied in perfect gas flows, and to a more limited extent in reacting and nonequilibrium flows. These methods predict the amplification of a known disturbance frequency and allow identification of the most unstable frequency. Transition is predicted to occur at a critical amplification or N Factor, frequently determined through experiment and empirical correlations. The LAngley Stability and TRansition Analysis Code (LASTRAC), with modifications for thermochemically reacting flows and arbitrary gas mixtures, will be presented with LST results on a simulation of a high enthalpy CO2 gas wind tunnel test relevant to Martian atmospheric entry. The results indicate transition caused by modified Tollmien-Schlichting waves on the leeward side, which are predicted to be more stable and cause transition slightly downstream when thermochemical nonequilibrium is included in the stability analysis for the same mean flow solution.

Transition↗

NASA NTRS2004

Effects of Freestream Turbulence on Turbine Blade Heat Transfer

Experiments have shown that moderate turbulence levels can nearly double turbine blade stagnation region heat transfer. Data have also shown that heat transfer is strongly affected by the scale of turbulence as well as its level. In addition to the stagnation region, turbulence is often seen to increase pressure surface heat transfer. This is especially evident at low to moderate Reynolds numbers. Vane and rotor stagnation region, and vane pressure surface heat transfer augmentation is often seen in a pre-transition environment. Accurate predictions of transition and relaminarization are critical to accurately predicting blade surface heat transfer. An approach is described which incorporates the effects of both turbulence level and scale into a CFD analysis. The model is derived from experimental data for cylindrical and elliptical leadng edges. Results using this model are compared to experimental data for both vane and rotor geometries. The comparisons are made to illustrate that using a model which includes the effects of turbulence length scale improves agreement with data, and to illustrate where improvements in the modeling are needed.

Boyle, Robert J.↗