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At least 199 records · Page 11

The Relative Importance of Random Error and Observation Frequency in Detecting Trends in Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor

Recent published work assessed the amount of time to detect trends in atmospheric water vapor over the coming century. We address the same question and conclude that under the most optimistic scenarios and assuming perfect data (i.e., observations with no measurement uncertainty) the time to detect trends will be at least 12 years at approximately 200 hPa in the upper troposphere. Our times to detect trends are therefore shorter than those recently reported and this difference is affected by data sources used, method of processing the data, geographic location and pressure level in the atmosphere where the analyses were performed. We then consider the question of how instrumental uncertainty plays into the assessment of time to detect trends. We conclude that due to the high natural variability in atmospheric water vapor, the amount of time to detect trends in the upper troposphere is relatively insensitive to instrumental random uncertainty and that it is much more important to increase the frequency of measurement than to decrease the random error in the measurement. This is put in the context of international networks such as the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) that are tasked with developing time series of climate quality water vapor data.

Whiteman, David N.↗

Range-Specific High-resolution Mesoscale Model Setup

This report summarizes the findings from an AMU task to determine the best model configuration for operational use at the ER and WFF to best predict winds, precipitation, and temperature. The AMU ran test cases in the warm and cool seasons at the ER and for the spring and fall seasons at WFF. For both the ER and WFF, the ARW core outperformed the NMM core. Results for the ER indicate that the Lin microphysical scheme and the YSU PBL scheme is the optimal model configuration for the ER. It consistently produced the best surface and upper air forecasts, while performing fairly well for the precipitation forecasts. Both the Ferrier and Lin microphysical schemes in combination with the YSU PBL scheme performed well for WFF in the spring and fall seasons. The AMU has been tasked with a follow-on modeling effort to recommended local DA and numerical forecast model design optimized for both the ER and WFF to support space launch activities. The AMU will determine the best software and type of assimilation to use, as well as determine the best grid resolution for the initialization based on spatial and temporal availability of data and the wall clock run-time of the initialization. The AMU will transition from the WRF EMS to NU-WRF, a NASA-specific version of the WRF that takes advantage of unique NASA software and datasets. 37

Watson, Leela R.↗

Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. Each has benefited from 3-dimensional analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive and complete understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features. Recent efforts have been undertaken to update the LDIS through the formal tasking process of NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit. The goals include upgrading LDIS with the latest version of ADAS, incorporating new sources of observational data, and making adjustments to shell scripts written to govern the system. A series of scripts run a complete modeling system consisting of the preprocessing step, the main model integration, and the post-processing step. The preprocessing step prepares the terrain, surface characteristics data sets, and the objective analysis for model initialization. Data ingested through ADAS include (but are not limited to) Level II Weather Surveillance Radar- 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from six Florida radars, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) visible and infrared satellite imagery, surface and upper air observations throughout Florida from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division/Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS), as well as the Kennedy Space Center ICape Canaveral Air Force Station wind tower network. The scripts provide NWS MLB and SMG with several options for setting a desirable runtime configuration of the LDIS to account for adjustments in grid spacing, domain location, choice of observational data sources, and selection of background model fields, among others. The utility of an improved LDIS will be demonstrated through postanalysis warm and cool season case studies that compare high-resolution model output with and without the ADAS analyses. Operationally, these upgrades will result in more accurate depictions of the current local environment to help with short-range weather forecasting applications, while also offering an improved initialization for local versions of the Weather Research and Forecasting model.

Watson, Leela R.↗

Development of Range Reference Atmospheres V.2013/2014

Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) datasets are statistical upper‐air climatologies of specific geographical locations. center dot The Range Commanders Council (RCC) have been publishing RRAs since 1963, with updates produced. Two "milestone" series were produced in 1983 and 2006. center dot In late 2012, the NASA/MSFC Natural Environments Branch initiated production of a new series of RRA updates. These are referred to as the 2013/2014 versions. center dot To date, four RRAs have been completed (CCAFS, EAFB, VAFB, WSMR). Development of these four were funded by the NASA Space Launch System program. center dot The RCC has funded a proposal to create RRAs for an additional ten sites. Work on these is ongoing.

Burns, Lee↗

Qualitative Comparison of IGRA and ESRL Radiosonde Archived Databases

Multiple databases of atmospheric profile information are freely available to individuals and groups such as the Natural Environments group. Two of the primary database archives provided by NOAA that are most frequently used are those from the Earth Science Research Laboratory (ESRL) and the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA). Inquiries have been made as to why one database is used as opposed to the other, yet to the best of knowledge, no formal comparison has been performed. The goal of this study is to provide a qualitative comparison of the ESRL and IGRA radiosonde databases. For part of this analyses, 14 upper air observation sites were selected. These sites all have the common attribute of having been used or are planned for use in the development of Range Reference Atmospheres (RRAs) in support of NASA's and DOD's current and future goals.

Walker, John R.↗

A High-Resolution Merged Wind Dataset for DYNAMO: Progress and Future Plans

In order to support research on optimal data assimilation methods for the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS), launching in 2016, work has been ongoing to produce a high‐resolution merged wind dataset for the Dynamics of the Madden Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign, which took place during late 2011/early 2012. The winds are produced by assimilating DYNAMO observations into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) three‐dimensional variational (3DVAR) system. Data sources from the DYNAMO campaign include the upper‐air sounding network, radial velocities from the radar network, vector winds from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) and Oceansat‐2 Scatterometer (OSCAT) satellite instruments, the NOAA High Resolution Doppler Lidar (HRDL), and several others. In order the prep them for 3DVAR, significant additional quality control work is being done for the currently available TOGA and SMART‐R radar datasets, including automatically dealiasing radial velocities and correcting for intermittent TOGA antenna azimuth angle errors. The assimilated winds are being made available as model output fields from WRF on two separate grids with different horizontal resolutions ‐ a 3‐km grid focusing on the main DYNAMO quadrilateral (i.e., Gan Island, the R/V Revelle, the R/V Mirai, and Diego Garcia), and a 1‐km grid focusing on the Revelle. The wind dataset is focused on three separate approximately 2‐week periods during the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) onsets that occurred in October, November, and December 2011. Work is ongoing to convert the 10‐m surface winds from these model fields to simulated CYGNSS observations using the CYGNSS End‐To‐End Simulator (E2ES), and these simulated satellite observations are being compared to radar observations of DYNAMO precipitation systems to document the anticipated ability of CYGNSS to provide information on the relationships between surface winds and oceanic precipitation at the mesoscale level. This research will improve our understanding of the future utility of CYGNSS for documenting key MJO processes.

Lang, Timothy J.↗

The Tracking Meteogram, an AWIPS II Tool for Time-Series Analysis

A new tool has been developed for the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) II through collaboration between NASA's Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) and the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL). Referred to as the "Tracking Meteogram", the tool aids NWS forecasters in assessing meteorological parameters associated with moving phenomena. The tool aids forecasters in severe weather situations by providing valuable satellite and radar derived trends such as cloud top cooling rates, radial velocity couplets, reflectivity, and information from ground‐based lightning networks. The Tracking Meteogram tool also aids in synoptic and mesoscale analysis by tracking parameters such as the deepening of surface low pressure systems, changes in surface or upper air temperature, and other properties. The tool provides a valuable new functionality and demonstrates the flexibility and extensibility of the NWS AWIPS II architecture. In 2014, the operational impact of the tool was formally evaluated through participation in the NOAA/NWS Operations Proving Ground (OPG), a risk reduction activity to assess performance and operational impact of new forecasting concepts, tools, and applications. Performance of the Tracking Meteogram Tool during the OPG assessment confirmed that it will be a valuable asset to the operational forecasters. This presentation reviews development of the Tracking Meteogram tool, performance and feedback acquired during the OPG activity, and future goals for continued support and extension to other application areas.

Burks, Jason Eric↗

Superboom Caustic Analysis and Measurement Program (SCAMP) Final Report

The objectives of the Superboom Caustic Analysis and Measurement (SCAMP) Program were to develop and validate, via flight-test measurements, analytical models for sonic boom signatures in and around focal zones as they are expected to occur during commercial aircraft transition from subsonic to supersonic flight, and to apply these models to focus boom prediction of low-boom aircraft designs. The SCAMP program has successfully investigated sonic boom focusing both analytically and experimentally, while gathering a comprehensive empirical flight test and acoustic dataset, and developing a suite of focused sonic boom prediction tools. An experimental flight and acoustic measurement test was designed during the initial year of the SCAMP program, with execution of the SCAMP flight test occurring in May 2011. The current SCAMP team, led by Wyle, includes partners from the Boeing Company, Pennsylvania State University, Gulfstream Aerospace, Eagle Aeronautics, and Central Washington University. Numerous collaborators have also participated by supporting the experiment with human and equipment resources at their own expense. The experiment involved precision flight of a McDonnell Douglas (now Boeing) F-18B executing different maneuvers that created focused sonic booms. The maneuvers were designed to center on the flight regime expected for commercial supersonic aircraft transonic transition, and also span a range of caustic curvatures in order to provide a variety of conditions for code validations. The SCAMP experiment was designed to capture concurrent F-18B on-board flight instrumentation data, high-fidelity ground-based and airborne acoustic data, and surface and upper air meteorological data. Close coordination with NASA Dryden resulted in the development of new experimental instrumentation and techniques to facilitate the SCAMP flight-test execution, including the development of an F-18B Mach rate cockpit display, TG-14 powered glider in-flight sonic boom measurement instrumentation and "Where's the Focus?" (WTF) software for near-real time way-point computation accounting for local atmospherics. In May 2011, 13 F-18B flights were conducted during 5 flying days over a 2 week period. A densely populated 10,000 ft-long ground acoustic array with 125-ft microphone spacing was designed to capture pre-, focus, and post-focus regions. The ground-based acoustic array was placed in a nominally east-west orientation in the remote Cuddeback lakebed region, north of Edwards AFB. This area was carefully selected to avoid placing focused booms on populated areas or solar power facilities. For the SCAMP measurement campaign, approvals were obtained to temporarily extend the Black Mountain supersonic corridor northward by three miles. The SCAMP flight tests successfully captured 70 boom events, with 61 focus passes, and 9 calibration passes. Seventeen of the focus passes and three of the calibration passes were laterally offset; with the others being centerline flights. Airborne incoming sonic boom wave measurements were measured by the TG-14 for 10 of the F-18B flight passes including one maximum focus signature, several N-u combinations, several overlapped N-u signatures, and several evanescent waves. During the 27-month program, the SCAMP team developed a suite of integrated computer codes with sonic boom focusing predictive capabilities: PCBoom, Lossy Nonlinear Tricomi Equation Method (LNTE) and the Nonlinear Progressive wave Equation (NPE) method. PCBoom propagates the rays through the atmosphere and, in addition to legacy focus signature prediction based on the Gill-Seebass method, provides input source characteristics and propagation parameters to LNTE and NPE. LNTE, a Tricomi solver that incorporates atmospheric losses, computes the focus signature at the focus, and computes the focus signature in the vicinity of the focal zone, including the evanescent and post-focus zones. LNTE signature auralization from low-boom vehicle designs has been demonstrated in the NASA Langley Interior Effects Room (IER). The NPE has also been validated for use in prediction of focused ground boom signatures in sonic boom focal zones. The NPE formulation has the capability to incorporate atmospheric turbulence in the predictions. This has been applied to sonic boom propagation in the past. Prediction of turbulence effects on focal zone signatures was not, however, explored during the SCAMP program.

Page, Juliet↗

Sonic Booms in Atmospheric Turbulence (SonicBAT): The Influence of Turbulence on Shaped Sonic Booms

The objectives of the Sonic Booms in Atmospheric Turbulence (SonicBAT) Program were to develop and validate, via research flight experiments under a range of realistic atmospheric conditions, one numeric turbulence model research code and one classic turbulence model research code using traditional N-wave booms in the presence of atmospheric turbulence, and to apply these models to assess the effects of turbulence on the levels of shaped sonic booms predicted from low boom aircraft designs. The SonicBAT program has successfully investigated sonic boom turbulence effects through the execution of flight experiments at two NASA centers, Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC), collecting a comprehensive set of acoustic and atmospheric turbulence data that were used to validate the numeric and classic turbulence models developed. The validated codes were incorporated into the PCBoom sonic boom prediction software and used to estimate the effect of turbulence on the levels of shaped sonic booms associated with several low boom aircraft designs. The SonicBAT program was a four year effort that consisted of turbulence model development and refinement throughout the entire period as well as extensive flight test planning that culminated with the two research flight tests being conducted in the second and third years of the program. The SonicBAT team, led by Wyle, includes partners from the Pennsylvania State University, Lockheed Martin, Gulfstream Aerospace, Boeing, Eagle Aeronautics, Technical & Business Systems, and the Laboratory of Fluid Mechanics and Acoustics (France). A number of collaborators, including the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, also participated by supporting the experiments with human and equipment resources at their own expense. Three NASA centers, AFRC, Langley Research Center (LaRC), and KSC were essential to the planning and conduct of the experiments. The experiments involved precision flight of either an F-18A or F-18B executing steady, level passes at supersonic airspeeds in a turbulent atmosphere to create sonic boom signatures that had been distorted by turbulence. The flights spanned a range of atmospheric turbulence conditions at NASA Armstrong and Kennedy in order to provide a variety of conditions for code validations. The SonicBAT experiments at both sites were designed to capture simultaneous F-18A or F-18B onboard flight instrumentation data, high fidelity ground based and airborne acoustic data, surface and upper air meteorological data, and additional meteorological data from ultrasonic anemometers and SODARs to determine the local atmospheric turbulence and boundary layer height.

Bradley, Kevin A.↗

A New Regional Climate Model for POLAR‐CORDEX: Evaluation of a 30‐Year Hindcast with COSMO‐CLM^2 Over Antarctica

Continent‐wide climate information over the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is important to obtain accurate information of present climate and reduce uncertainties of the ice sheet mass balance response and resulting global sea level rise to future climate change. In this study, the COSMO‐CLM^2 Regional Climate Model is applied over the AIS and adapted for the specific meteorological and climatological conditions of the region. A 30‐year hindcast was performed and evaluated against observational records consisting of long‐term ground‐based meteorological observations, automatic weather stations, radiosoundings, satellite records, stake measurements and ice cores. Reasonable agreement regarding the surface and upper‐air climate is achieved by the COSMO‐CLM^2 model, comparable to the performance of other state‐of‐the‐art climate models over the AIS. Meteorological variability of the surface climate is adequately simulated, and biases in the radiation and surface mass balance are small. The presented model therefore contributes as a new member to the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment project over the AIS (POLAR‐CORDEX) and the CORDEX‐CORE initiative.

Antarctica↗

Vandenberg Air Force Base Upper Level Wind Launch Weather Constraints

The 30th Operational Support Squadron Weather Flight (30 OSSWF) provides comprehensive weather services to the space program at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) in California. One of their responsibilities is to monitor upper-level winds to ensure safe launch operations of the Minuteman III ballistic missile. The 30 OSSWF tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to analyze VAFB sounding data with the goal of determining the probability of violating (PoV) their upper-level thresholds for wind speed and shear constraints specific to this launch vehicle, and to develop a tool that will calculate the PoV of each constraint on the day of launch. In order to calculate the probability of exceeding each constraint, the AMU collected and analyzed historical data from VAFB. The historical sounding data were retrieved from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory archive for the years 1994-2011 and then stratified into four sub-seasons: January-March, April-June, July-September, and October-December. The maximum wind speed and 1000-ft shear values for each sounding in each subseason were determined. To accurately calculate the PoV, the AMU determined the theoretical distributions that best fit the maximum wind speed and maximum shear datasets. Ultimately it was discovered that the maximum wind speeds follow a Gaussian distribution while the maximum shear values follow a lognormal distribution. These results were applied when calculating the averages and standard deviations needed for the historical and real-time PoV calculations. In addition to the requirements outlined in the original task plan, the AMU also included forecast sounding data from the Rapid Refresh model. This information provides further insight for the launch weather officers (LWOs) when determining if a wind constraint violation will occur over the next few hours on day of launch. The interactive graphical user interface (GUI) for this project was developed in Microsoft Excel using Visual Basic for Applications. The GUI displays the critical sounding data easily and quickly for the LWOs on day of launch. This tool will replace the existing one used by the 30 OSSWF, assist the LWOs in determining the probability of exceeding specific wind threshold values, and help to improve the overall upper winds forecast for the launch customer.

Shafer, Jaclyn A.↗

Entrainment of Upper Level Dry Air Into Hurricane Earl

Hurricane Earl formed in the Gulf of Mexico in September 1998. It quickly was upgraded from a tropical disturbance to tropical storm status and then to a hurricane. Earl possessed hybrid (tropical and extratropical) characteristics throughout its lifetime. The system maintained and erratic track, which led to wide variability in the operational track forecasts. It eventually made landfall on the Florida panhandle on 2 September and raced northeastward. During August and September 1998, NASA conducted the third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3). The experiment was focused on studying hurricanes with an emphasis toward developing a better understanding of their intensification and motion. Earl provides a unique opportunity to utilize high spatial and temporal resolution data collected from the DC-8 and high altitude ER-2 NASA platforms, which flew over Earl as it made landfall. These data can also be put into broader view provided by other instruments from the Geosynchronous Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellites. Hurricane Earl was affected by entrainment of dry air from the northwest. Hurricane Isis was intensifying and approaching the Mexican Pacific coast with its associated outflow potentially affecting the inflow into Earl as the storm neared Florida. In addition, a longwave synoptic trough circulation was present over the eastern U.S. Either or both of these could be responsible for the dry air into the system. This paper will focus on identifying the source of the dry by using upper-level wind and moisture fields derived from the GOES 6.7 um water vapor imagery. We will attempt to relate the large-scale observations to those from the NASA aircraft. An infrared instrument onboard the ER-2 also has a similar wavelength and may be able to confirm some of the GOES findings. In addition, a microwave radiometer with 4 channels focused on measuring precipitation and its associated ice scattering was also aboard the ER-2. The microwave observations will allow the authors to relate the entrainment to precipitation changes near the flight path of the aircraft.

Guillory, Anthony R.↗

Entrainment of Upper Level Dry Air into Hurricane Earl

Hurricane Earl developed from a tropical wave that moved into the Gulf of Mexico, which triggered abundant convection. On 1 Sept. 1998, the wave was upgraded directly to a tropical storm. Earl reached hurricane status the next morning. The system moved erratically as it interacted with an upper level short wave trough rotating around a long wave trough to the northeast. The storm made landfall near 0600 UTC on 3 September near Panama City, FL. During August and September 1998, NASA conducted the Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3). It focused on studying the intensity, track, and impacts at landfall of hurricanes. On the afternoon of 2 September 1998, the NASA ER2 high-altitude aircraft flying at 65,000 feet in tandem with the NASA DC-8 flying at 35,000 feet flew over and through, respectively, the eastern rainbands of Earl near the Florida Panhandle as the storm neared landfall in the region. Two approaches to studying Earl are undertaken here: first, an examination of the source and height of the dry air region using GOES-8 water vapor data and, second, a look into the impact of the dry air entrainment on the system using aircraft remote sensing data.

Guillory, Anthony R.↗

Conflict Resolution Strategies for Balloon-Airship Encounters in Upper Class E Air Traffic Management (ETM)

This paper examines strategic conflict resolution strategies for pair-wise high-altitude balloon, airship encounters. By strategic is meant that the conflict is identified (detected) at the time of flight plan submission or flight plan alteration through a service, such as an ETM Service Supplier (ESS). We investigate optimal control solutions for two classes of problems: non-cooperative, where the balloon must alter its ascent trajectory in order to avoid the airship and cooperative, where both vehicles make maneuvers through a negotiation protocol.

airship balloon negotiation optimal control↗

Conflict Resolution Strategies for Balloon-Airship Encounters in Upper Class E Air Traffic Management (ETM)

This paper examines strategic conflict resolution strategies for pair-wise high-altitude balloon, airship encounters. By strategic is meant that the conflict is identified (detected) at the time of flight plan submission or flight plan alteration through a service, such as an ETM Service Supplier (ESS). We investigate optimal control solutions for two classes of problems: non-cooperative, where the balloon must alter its ascent trajectory in order to avoid the airship and cooperative, where both vehicles make maneuvers through a negotiation protocol.

airship balloon negotiation optimal control↗

A case study of persistent, intense, clear air turbulence in an upper level frontal zone.

Widespread and persistent clear air turbulence (CAT) occurred over the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. between New York and South Carolina on 18 March 1969. The major synoptic features and a qualitative discussion of the factors contributing to the development of the large vertical wind shears associated with the turbulence are presented. The turbulent region in the vicinity of Wallops Island, Va., was probed with a NASA T-33 research aircraft and with sensitive radars. The clear air radar echoes and the most intense turbulence occurred principally within an upper level frontal zone of about 2 km depth which was produced by the confluence of two currents of widely different origin.

Reed, R. J.↗

Comparison of Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor from AIRS and Cryogenic Frostpoint Hygrometers

Upper tropospheric water vapor (UTWV) from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) experiment on NASA's Aqua spacecraft has the potential of addressing several important climate questions. The specified AIRS system measurement uncertainty for water vapor is 20 percent absolute averaged over 2 km layers. Cryogenic frostpoint hygrometers (CFH) are balloon-borne water vapor sensors responsive from the surface into the lower stratosphere. Several dozen coincident, collocated CFH profiles have been obtained for AlRS validation. The combination of CFH sensitivity and sample size offers a statistically compelling picture of AIRS UTWV measurement capability. We present a comparison between CFH observations and AlRS retrievals. We focus on the altitude range from the middle troposphere up to heights at the limits of AlRS sensitivity to water vapor, believed to be around 100-1 50 hPa.

validation↗