Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “WEST”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11

Summer Synoptic-Scale Waves over Tropical West Africa Observed by TRMM

A 5-year daily rainfall dataset (3B42) from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) is used to investigate the activity and properties of westward-propagating synoptic-scale waves over tropical West Africa. Evident wave signals appearing in wavenumber-frequency space show their modulations on the surface rainfall pattern during the boreal summer. Interannual variability exists in both their intensity and spectral properties, i. e., dominant frequency and wavenumber ranges. These variabilities can be partly ascribed to year-to-year variations of their embedded large-scale environment, especially the status of mid-tropospheric African easterly jet (AEJ). Generally, a stronger (weaker) AEJ indicates more (less) instability energy yielding a stronger (weaker) wave activity season. Seasonal mean rainfall has shown an impact on these waves in some years. However, the impact is not as clear and consistent as AEJ, implying the complexity of their relationship with large-scale environment. To fully understand interannual variability of synoptic-scale waves over tropical West Africa, including the variability in their preferred frequencies and wavenumbers, it is therefore necessary to examine possible intra-seasonal variations existing in both wave activity and large-scale fields, in addition to their structure, propagation, and associated convection.

Starr, David O.↗

Multispectral In-situ Measurements of Organic Matter and Chlorophyll Fluorescence in Seawater: Documenting the Intrusion of the Mississippi River Plume in the West Florida Shelf

We performed multispectral in-situ fluorescence measurement of colored dissolved organic matter and chlorophyll in surface water of the West Florida Shelf using West Labs Spectral absorption and Fluorescence Instrument (SAFIre). Continuous measurements underway allowed us to simultaneously map the dispersion of riverine organic material and chlorophyll on the shelf. By using two fluorescence emission ratios we were able to differentiate between riverine and marine CDOM. Our data also showed unusually high concentrations of CDOM offshore. These were attributed to an intrusion of the Mississippi River Plume. We performed limited comparisons between in-situ chlorophyll concentrations measured with SAFIre and chlorophyll values obtained from SeaWiFS satellite data using OC4 and MODIS algorithm. Our results show that, although both algorithms overestimated chlorophyll, MODIS performed better than OC4, particularly in areas with high CDOM concentrations. Analysis of the relationship between chlorophyll and CDOM concentrations within the study area showed regional variability causes by differences in river source.

DelCastillo, Carlos E.↗

Low Altitude AVIRIS Data for Mapping Landform Types on West Ship Island, Mississippi

A chain of barrier islands provides protection against hurricanes and severe storms along the south and southeastern shores of the United States. Barrier island landform types can be spectrally similar and as small as a few meters across, making highly detailed maps difficult to produce. To determine whether high-resolution airborne hyperspectral imagery could provide detailed maps of barrier island landform types, we used low-altitude hyperspectral and multispectral imagery to map surface environments of West Ship Island, Mississippi. We employed 3.4-meter AVIRIS hyperspectral imagery acquired in July 1999 and 0.5-meter ADAR multispectral data acquired in November 1997. The data were co-registered to digital ortho aerial imagery, and the AVIRIS data was scaled to ground reflectance using ATREM software. Unsupervised classification of AVIRIS and ADAR data proceeded using ISODATA clustering techniques. The resulting landform maps were field-checked and compared to aerial photography and digital elevation maps. Preliminary analyses indicated that the AVIRIS classification mapped more landform types, while the ADAR-based map enabled smaller patches to be identified. Used together, these maps provided a means to assess landform distributions of West Ship Island before and after Hurricane Gorges. Classification accuracy is being addressed through photo-interpretation and field surveys of sample areas selected with stratified random sampling.

Spruce, Joseph↗

Low Altitude AVIRIS Data for Mapping Landform Types on West Ship Island, Mississippi

A chain of barrier islands provides protection against hurricanes and severe storms along the southern and southeastern shores of the Unites States. Barrier island landform types can be spectrally similar and as small as a few meters across, making highly detailed maps difficult to produce. To determine whether high-resolution airborne hyperspectral imagery could provide detailed maps of barrier island landform types, we used low-altitude hyperspectral and multispectral imagery to map surface environments of West Ship Island, Mississippi. We employed 3.4 meter AVIRIS hyperspectral imagery acquired in July 1999 and 0.5 meter ADAR multispectral data acquired in November 1997. The data were co-registered to digital ortho aerial imagery, and the AVIRIS data was scaled to ground reflectance using ATREM software. Unsupervised classification of AVIRIS and ADAR data proceeded using ISODATA clustering techniques. The resulting landform maps were field-checked and compared to aerial photography and digital elevation maps. Preliminary analyses indicated that the AVIRIS classification mapped more landform types, while the ADAR-based map enabled smaller patches to be identified. Used together, these maps provided a means to assess landform distributions of West Ship Island before and after Hurricane Georges. Classification accuracy is being assessed through photo-interpretation and field surveys of sample areas selected with stratified random sampling.

Spruce, Joseph↗

Antitropical distribution and evolution in the Indo-West Pacific Ocean

Antitropical distributions of continental shelf, Indo-West Pacific species are probably not due to transgression of the tropics during the glacial periods, isothermic submergence, island integration, rising Neogene temperatures, or the Mesozoic dispersal of fragments from a Pacific continental mass. Characteristics of common antitropical patterns, plus information from systematic works on a variety on a variety of animal and plant groups, indicate that the long discarded "relict theory" of Theel (1885) appears to best fit the evidence, for it provides a mechanism whereby antitropical distribution may be brought about. The relict theory is compatible with the concept that the East Indies part of the Indo-West Pacific has been functioning as a center of evolutionary origin. It suggests that antitropical and associated disjunct patterns are produced as an older species, that has spread out to occupy a broad range, loses ground and gradually becomes supplanted by a younger species that had subsequently evolved in the East Indies. As this process goes on, the older species becomes restricted to a few isolated localities on the fringe of its original range. These isolates are often found to the north and south of the equatorial region but may include relict populations at the western edge of the Indian Ocean.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Estimation of water turnover rates of captive West Indian manatees (Trichechus manatus) held in fresh and salt water

The ability of West Indian manatees (Trichechus manatus) to move between fresh and salt water raises the question of whether manatees drink salt water. Water turnover rates were estimated in captive West Indian manatees using the deuterium oxide dilution technique. Rates were quantified in animals using four experimental treatments: (1) held in fresh water and fed lettuce (N=4), (2) held in salt water and fed lettuce (N=2), (3) acutely exposed to salt water and fed lettuce (N=4), and (4) chronically exposed to salt water with limited access to fresh water and fed sea grass (N=5). Animals held in fresh water had the highest turnover rates (145+/-12 ml kg-1 day-1) (mean +/- s.e.m.). Animals acutely exposed to salt water decreased their turnover rate significantly when moved into salt water (from 124+/-15 to 65+/-15 ml kg-1 day-1) and subsequently increased their turnover rate upon re-entry to fresh water (146+/-19 ml kg-1 day-1). Manatees chronically exposed to salt water had significantly lower turnover rates (21+/-3 ml kg-1 day-1) compared with animals held in salt water and fed lettuce (45+/-3 ml kg-1 day-1). Manatees chronically exposed to salt water and fed sea grass had very low turnover rates compared with manatees held in salt water and fed lettuce, which is consistent with a lack of mariposia. Manatees in fresh water drank large volumes of water, which may make them susceptible to hyponatremia if access to a source of Na+ is not provided.

Trichechus/metabolism↗

Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger is shown.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

The Impact of the Atlantic Cold Tongue on West African Monsoon Onset in Regional Model Simulations for 1998-2002

The Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) develops during spring and early summer near the Equator in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea. The hypothesis that the ACT accelerates the timing of West African monsoon (WAM) onset is tested by comparing two regional climate model (RM3) simulation ensembles. Observed sea surface temperatures (SST) that include the ACT are used to force a control ensemble. An idealized, warm SST perturbation is designed to represent lower boundary forcing without the ACT for the experiment ensemble. Summer simulations forced by observed SST and reanalysis boundary conditions for each of five consecutive years are compared to five parallel runs forced by SST with the warm perturbation. The article summarizes the sequence of events leading to the onset of the WAM in the Sahel region. The representation of WAM onset in RM3 simulations is examined and compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and reanalysis data. The study evaluates the sensitivity of WAM onset indicators to the presence of the ACT by analysing the differences between the two simulation ensembles. Results show that the timing of major rainfall events and therefore theWAM onset in the Sahel are not sensitive to the presence of the ACT. However, the warm SST perturbation does increase downstream rainfall rates over West Africa as a consequence of enhanced specific humidity and enhanced northward moisture flux in the lower troposphere.

Regional model simulation↗

Recent Rainfall Decline in West Africa Due to Enhanced Biomass Burning and Dust Emission

Rainfall in West Africa during boreal summer is primarily controlled by the low-level southerly monsoon flow that transports moisture from the Gulf of Guinea to the region and the African Easterly Jet that modulates the convective systems. However, the role of aerosols in rainfall variability of this region, despite the large emissions of dust and black carbon in Africa, is not well-understood. Our study reveals a decline in precipitation over Southern West Africa (SWA) in the past two decades that its trend and interannual variability present an indirect relationship with the aerosols loadings. Examining the local and remote sources of aerosols, we found that the latter have a larger contribution. We have used MERRA-2 large scale atmospheric dynamics and physics data to determine the mechanisms responsible for aerosol-rainfall interactions in the region. Our results have important implications for the people and ecosystem as the increasing rates of land use change, deforestation and urbanization in the continent are expected to enhance the aerosols. This will result in an increase in the frequency and intensity of the extreme events including droughts.

Dezfuli, Amin↗

AWARE: The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment

The US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) performed comprehensive meteorological and aerosol measurements, and ground-based atmospheric remote sensing at two Antarctic stations using the most advanced instrumentation available. A suite of cloud research radars, lidars, spectral and broadband radiometers, aerosol chemical and microphysical sampling equipment, and meteorological instrumentation was deployed at McMurdo Station on Ross Island from December 2015 through December 2016. A smaller suite of radiometers and meteorological equipment including radiosondes, optimized for surface energy budget measurement, was deployed on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet between 4 December 2015 and 17 January 2016. AWARE provided Antarctic atmospheric data comparable to several well-instrumented high Arctic sites that have operated for many years and that reveal numerous contrasts with the Arctic in aerosol and cloud microphysical properties. These include persistent differences in liquid cloud occurrence, cloud height and cloud thickness. Antarctic aerosol properties are also quite different from the Arctic in both seasonal cycle and composition, due to the continent’s isolation from lower latitudes by Southern Ocean storm tracks. Antarctic aerosol number and mass concentrations are not only non-negligible but perhaps play a more important role than previously recognized because of the higher sensitivities of clouds at the very low concentrations caused by the large-scale dynamical isolation. Antarctic aerosol chemical composition, particularly organic components, has implications for local cloud microphysics. The AWARE data set, fully available online in the ARM Program data archive, offers numerous case studies for unique and rigorous evaluation of mixed-phase cloud parameterization in climate models.

Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)↗

Observations of Surface Mass Balance on Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, and the Effect of Strain History in Fast-Flowing Sections

Surface mass balance (SMB) is the net input of mass on a glacier's upper surface, composed of snow deposition, melt and erosion processes, and is a major contributor to the overall mass balance. Pine Island Glacier (PIG) in West Antarctica has been dynamically imbalanced since the early 1990s, indicating that discharge of solid ice into the oceans exceeds snow deposition. However, observations of the SMB pattern on the fast flowing regions are scarce, and are potentially affected by the firn's strain history. Here, we present new observations from radar-derived stratigraphy and a relatively dense network of firn cores, collected along a ~900 km traverse of PIG. Between 1986 and 2014, the SMB along the traverse was 0.505 m w.e. a−1 on average with a gradient of higher snow deposition in the South-West compared with the North-East of the catchment. We show that along ~80% of the traverse the strain history amounts to a misestimation of SMB below the nominal uncertainty, but can exceed it by a factor 5 in places, making it a significant correction to the SMB estimate locally. We find that the strain correction changes the basin-wide SMB by ~0.7 Gt a−1 and thus forms a negligible (1%) correction to the glacier's total SMB.

ice core↗

Rapid Glacier Retreat Rates Observed in West Antarctica

The Pope, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, in the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica, have experienced enhanced ocean-induced ice-shelf melt, glacier acceleration, ice thinning, and grounding line retreat in the past thirty years. Here we present observations of the grounding line retreat of these glaciers since 2014 using a constellation of interferometric radar satellites combined with precision surface elevation data. We find that the grounding lines develop spatially-variable, kilometre-scale, tidally-induced migration zones. After correction for tidal effects, we detect a sustained pattern of retreat coincident with high melt rates of un-grounded ice, marked by episodes of more rapid retreat. In 2017, Pope Glacier retreated 3.5 km in 3.6 months, or 11.7 km/yr. In 2016-2018, Smith West retreated at 2 km/yr and Kohler at 1.3 km/yr. While the retreat slowed down in 2018-2020, these retreat rates are faster than anticipated by numerical models on yearly time scales. We hypothesize that the rapid retreat is caused by un-represented, vigorous ice-ocean interactions acting within newly-formed cavities at the ice-ocean boundary.

Climate change↗

Leveraging High Resolution Remotely Sensed Evapotranspiration Data to Assess Water Availability and Vulnerability in the Memphis Aquifer Area in West Tennessee

The Memphis aquifer is an indispensable source of water for municipal, agricultural, and industrial use across west Tennessee. The aquifer's water is thousands of years old and in pristine condition due to the natural geological filtering by the aquifer’s confining clay layers. To sustain the aquifer’s water supply, recharge must happen at a rate efficient enough to keep up with pumping from the aquifer. In partnership with Protect Our Aquifer and the University of Memphis Center for Applied Earth Science and Engineering Research, this project examined multiple factors to discover thriving areas of recharge in west Tennessee. The team used Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) precipitation data, ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) evapotranspiration data, Landsat 8 and National Land Cover Database (NLCD) to track landcover change, and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Noah land surface model to estimate monthly runoff. These factors were averaged seasonally from 2019 to 2022 to understand seasonal relationships within the study area. Precipitation and evapotranspiration data were used to create water balance maps and with the evaporative stress index (ESI), landcover, and runoff maps, the team pinpointed locations that are most conducive to recharge. The team determined that areas where the water balance is low, ESI is high, and where there is sufficient pervious landcover are locations where recharge happens most effectively. Identification of effective recharge locations may be used by the partners to prioritize areas in need of protection before they become impacted by industrialization and urbanization.

Lauren Webster↗

Satellite-Derived Estimates of Suspended CaCO3 Mud Con-Centrations from the West Florida Shelf Induced by Hurricane Ian

In the days following the passage of Hurricane Ian over the West Florida Shelf, a large plume of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) mud slurry was observed extending from west of the Dry Tortugas and curving to the east into the Straits of Florida. This discreet target offered a unique opportunity to quantify the suspended mass of CaCO3 in the slurry. Estimating the concentration of sediment in a plume of suspended CaCO3 by satellite sensor observations has been stymied up to now owing to a lack of in situ suspended sediment measurements during storm events, as “sea truth” data for such events is difficult to acquire. However, the Particulate Inorganic Carbon (PIC) standard product provided by the NASA Ocean Biology Distributed Active Archive Center (OBDAAC) is based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations of a plume of coccolith chalk released from a ship in the “Chalk-Ex” experiment. Due to the similarities (particle size, mineralogy, and reflectance properties) of the suspended chalk features and the Ian-induced slurry, we utilized this data product to make initial estimates of the concentration of suspended sediment in the plume.

remote sensing↗

Distribution Development for Residual Inventory at the New York West Valley Site - 20400

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351 ha site located approximately 48 km south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into Agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States. NFS, a private company, built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations ended in 1972 and never reopened, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. Operations led to contamination in a number of facilities and locations. Some of that contamination has migrated from waste disposal zones to other layers, formations, and features on and off the WNYNSC. Phase I decommissioning activities are ongoing and involve the removal of a number of areas and structures that have been associated with contamination. The purpose of this work is to outline the approach for characterizing contamination not associated with disposed wastes, contaminated structures, or specific releases. In this work, the term, residual radiological activity, is used to describe environmental contamination that exists subsequent to the completion of Phase I decommissioning activities, that is not associated with disposed wastes, contaminated structures, or specific releases. Contamination from the Site was quantified relative to data that characterize the concentrations of radionuclides that exist in background. Background concentrations are those present in the area but having no influence from Site related activities. The existence of residual radiological activity that is elevated relative to background has the potential to contribute to future risks to human health and the environment. As a consequence, the residual inventory information is used to inform the West Valley Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) model to characterize potential future risks to human health and the environment. The centralized West Valley Data Management System (DMS) was the source of information for the data assembled in this analysis. The DMS is a fairly large compilation consisting of thousands of records from investigation studies, with sample dates ranging from 1990 to present. Samples from monitoring wells, boreholes, geoprobe studies, surface water, surface soils, storm water outfalls, ventilation stack filters, plant and animal tissues, and more are included in the DMS. Results are typically reported in units of activity per unit volume. For the purpose of the analyses presented here, all results were converted into consistent units of pCi per unit volume. Since 1990, data have been collected from various locations across the WNYNSC at different times with varying frequency over the course of several decades. As a consequence, a number of potential issues can arise with respect to the assembly of a dataset that is deemed adequate for the characterization of residual radiological activity. These issues were assessed and resolved to the extent possible through careful consideration of the properties of the distributions. The intent was to use data which characterize the current state of the Site. Radionuclides can be designated to one of several groups depending on their origin. In this work the groups considered were 1) Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material (NORM), 2) fallout, and 3) Other (including power plant, medical research, etc). This grouping is a useful construct with respect to the interpretation of fixed laboratory results. For example, NORM radionuclides that exist within a decay chain should have approximately equivalent distributions of concentrations if they are representative of background conditions. Insights such as these can be used as a check to identify sample results that need to be further investigated or omitted due to issues associated with reported results from fixed laboratory analyses. This type of analysis provided a foundation for the assessment of the adequacy of sample results for use in subsequent components of an assessment. The general process for the assessment of residual radiological contamination at the Site consists of a sequence of several steps. First, for each analyte, several statistical tests were performed to assess the weight of evidence against the null hypothesis that the mean of the distribution of concentrations was equal to zero. If the mean of the distribution of concentrations for a given radionuclide was not found to be greater than zero, then it was removed from consideration as a component of the residual radiological contamination. If there was significant evidence to reject the hypothesis of the mean being equal to zero, the second step was to compare the distribution of the data from the Site to that of the corresponding background. A suite of tests was used to compare the distributions of the site and background data. The results of these tests were collectively used to determine if site data are elevated relative to background. The third step was to develop distributions using a Bayesian framework to characterize the distribution of mean of the increment present above background for each of the radionuclides. The Bayesian model implemented allowed for the comparison of site-specific records to background concentrations to better approximate contamination attributed to the Site. A final screening step was employed for radionuclides that exceed background. This screening step compared 95% upper confidence limits (UCLs) from the increment distribution developed in the previous step to the risk screening levels. This approach yields a list of analytes that were determined to be elevated relative to background.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER) for Calendar Year 2023

The report, prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy West Valley Demonstration Project office (DOE-WVDP), summarizes the environmental protection program at the WVDP for calendar year (CY) 2023. Monitoring and surveillance of the facilities used by the DOE are conducted to verify protection of public health and safety and the environment. The report is a key component of DOE’s effort to keep the public informed of environmental conditions at the WVDP. The quality assurance protocols applied to the environmental monitoring program ensure the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data. In addition to demonstrating compliance with environmental laws, regulations, and directives, evaluation of data collected in 2023 continued to indicate that WVDP activities pose no threat to public health or safety, or to the environment.

Record of Decision↗

Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. Methods We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. Results Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. Conclusions Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases). Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER) for Calendar Year 2021

The report, prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy West Valley Demonstration Project office (DOE-WVDP), summarizes the environmental protection program at the WVDP for calendar year (CY) 2021. Monitoring and surveillance of the facilities used by the DOE are conducted to verify protection of public health and safety and the environment. The report is a key component of DOE’s effort to keep the public informed of environmental conditions at the WVDP. The quality assurance protocols applied to the environmental monitoring program ensure the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data. In addition to demonstrating compliance with environmental laws, regulations, and directives, evaluation of data collected in 2021 continued to indicate that WVDP activities pose no threat to public health or safety, or to the environment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗