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NASA NTRS1986

Measurement and application of fault latency

The time interval between the occurrence of a fault and the detection of the error caused by the fault is divided by the generation of that error into two parts: fault latency and error latency. Since the moment of error generation is not directly observable, all related works in the literature have dealt with only the sum of fault and error latencies, thereby making the analysis of their separate effects impossible. To remedy this deficiency, (1) a new methodology for indirectly measuring fault latency is presented; the distribution of fault latency is derived from the methodology; and (3) the knowledge of fault latency is applied to the analysis of two important examples. The proposed methodology has been implemented for measuring fault latency in the Fault-Tolerant Multiprocessor (FTMP) at the NASA Airlab. The experimental results show wide variations in the mean fault latencies of different function circuits within FTMP. Also, the measured distributions of fault latency are shown to have monotone hazard rates. Consequently, Gamma and Weibull distributions are selected for the least-squares fit as the distribution of fault latency.

Shin, K. G.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A new approach for determining fully empirical altimeter wind speed model functions

A statistical technique is developed for determining fully empirical model functions relating altimeter backscatter (sigma(sub 0)) measurements to near-surface neutral stability wind speed. By assuming that sigma(sub 0) varies monotonically and uniquely with wind speed, the method requires knowledge only of the separate, rather than joint distribution functions of sigma(sub 0) and wind speed. Analytic simplifications result from using a Weibull distribution to approximate the global ocean wind speed distribution; several different wind data sets are used to demonstrate the validity of the Weibull approximation. The technique has been applied to 1 year of Geosat data. Validation of the new and historical model functions using an independent buoy data set demonstrates that the present model function not only has small overall bias and root mean square (RMS) errors, but yields smaller systematic error trends with wind speed and pseudowave age than previously published models. The present analysis suggests that generally accuracte altimeter model functions can be derived without the use of colocated measurements, nor is additional significant wave height information measured by the altimeter necessary.

Freilich, M. H.↗

DOE OSTI2023

TRISO Burnup-Dependent Failure Analysis of a HTGR Design-Basis Accident Using BISON

Here, this work assesses the failure behavior of the silicon carbide (SiC) layer in TRIstructural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel particles with BISON during both steady-state and transient conditions for the MHTGR-350 design by General Atomics. A one-dimensional BISON model for a uranium oxycarbide–bearing TRISO is developed to simulate a power level of 50 mW/particles up to 12.4% fissions per initial metal atom (FIMA). Stress predictions for the materials of interest are presented as a function of burnup, along with the SiC failure probability computed using Weibull statistics under the assumption of realistic SiC quality.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Effect of Spaceflight on the Propensity for Astronauts to Develop Disk Herniation

BACKGROUND: A previous study [1] reported that the instantaneous risk of developing a Herniated Nucleus Pulposus (HNP) was higher in astronauts who had flown at least one mission, as compared with those in the corps who had not yet flown. However, the study only analyzed time to HNP after the first mission (if any) and did not account for the possible effects of multiple missions. While many HNP's occurred well into astronauts' careers or in some cases years after retirement, the higher incidence of HNPs relatively soon after completion of space missions appears to indicate that spaceflight may lead to an increased risk of HNP. The purpose of this study was to support the Human System Risk Board assessment of back pain, evaluate the risk of injury due to dynamic loads, and update the previous dataset which contained events up to December 31, 2006. METHODS: Data was queried from the electronic medical record and provided by the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health. The data included all 330 United States astronauts from 1959 through February 2014. Cases were confirmed by Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Computerized Tomography, Myelography, operative findings, or through clinical confirmation with a neurologist or neurosurgeon. In this analysis, astronauts who had an HNP at selection into the corps or had an HNP diagnosis prior to their first flight were excluded. The statistical challenges in using the available data to separate effects of spaceflight from those associated with general astronaut training and lifestyle on propensity to develop HNPs are many. The primary outcome is reported date of first HNP (if any), which at best is only an approximation to the actual time of occurrence. To properly analyze this data with a survival analysis model, one must also know the "exposure" time - i.e. how long each astronaut has been at risk for developing an HNP. If an HNP is reported soon after a mission, is it mission caused or general? If the former, exposure time should be counted from the time of landing (assuming the risk of HNP occurring during a mission is zero). If the latter, exposure time should be counted from the time of selection; however we can't directly know which one to use. In our analysis we take both of these possibilities into account with a competing risks model, wherein two distinct stochastic processes are going on: TG = time to HNP (general) and TS = time to HNP (spaceflight). Under this type of model, whichever of these occurs first is what we observe; in other words we don't observe TG or TS, only min(TG, TS). Here, we parameterized the model in terms of separate Weibull hazard functions for each process and estimated all parameters using maximum likelihood. In addition, we allowed for a "cured fraction" - i.e. the possibility that some astronauts may never develop an HNP. RESULTS: Results will include a depiction of the competing hazard functions as well as a probability curve for the relative likelihood that an HNP reported at a given time after a mission is actually mission caused. Other factors, such as dwell time in microgravity and vehicle landing environment will be explored. An overall assessment as to whether spaceflight truly exacerbates HNP risk will be made.

Feiveson, A. H.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Failure rate analysis of Goddard Space Flight Center spacecraft performance during orbital life

Space life performance data on 57 Goddard Space Flight Center spacecraft are analyzed from the standpoint of determining an appropriate reliability model and the associated reliability parameters. Data from published NASA reports, which cover the space performance of GSFC spacecraft launched in the 1960-1970 decade, form the basis of the analyses. The results of the analyses show that the time distribution of 449 malfunctions, of which 248 were classified as failures (not necessarily catastrophic), follow a reliability growth pattern that can be described with either the Duane model or a Weibull distribution. The advantages of both mathematical models are used in order to: identify space failure rates, observe chronological trends, and compare failure rates with those experienced during the prelaunch environmental tests of the flight model spacecraft.

Norris, H. P.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stress-controlled fatigue of HfNbTaTiZr high-entropy alloy and associated deformation and fracture mechanisms

The stress-controlled fatigue tests are carried out at a stress ratio of 0.1 and a frequency of 10 Hz, and span both low-cycle and high-cycle regimes by varying the applied stress amplitudes. The high-cycle fatigue regime gives a fatigue strength of 497 MPa and a fatigue ratio of 0.44. At equivalent conditions, the alloy's fatigue strength is greater than all other high-entropy alloys (HEAs) with reported high-cycle fatigue data, dilute body-centered cubic alloys, and many structural alloys such as steels, titanium alloys, and aluminum alloys. Through in-depth analyses of crack-propagation trajectories, fracture-surface morphologies and deformation plasticity by means of various microstructural analysis techniques and theoretical frameworks, the alloy's remarkable fatigue resistance is attributed to delayed crack initiation in the high-cycle regime, which is achieved by retarding the formation of localized persistent slip bands, and its good resistance to crack propagation in the low-cycle regime, which is accomplished by intrinsic toughening backed up by extrinsic toughening. Additionally, the stochastic nature of the fatigue data is neatly captured with a 2-parameter Weibull model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1995

Reliability Analysis of Uniaxially Ground Brittle Materials

The fast fracture strength distribution of uniaxially ground, alpha silicon carbide was investigated as a function of grinding angle relative to the principal stress direction in flexure. Both as-ground and ground/annealed surfaces were investigated. The resulting flexural strength distributions were used to verify reliability models and predict the strength distribution of larger plate specimens tested in biaxial flexure. Complete fractography was done on the specimens. Failures occurred from agglomerates, machining cracks, or hybrid flaws that consisted of a machining crack located at a processing agglomerate. Annealing eliminated failures due to machining damage. Reliability analyses were performed using two and three parameter Weibull and Batdorf methodologies. The Weibull size effect was demonstrated for machining flaws. Mixed mode reliability models reasonably predicted the strength distributions of uniaxial flexure and biaxial plate specimens.

Salem, Jonathan A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Effects of HF Treatments on Tensile Strength of Hi-Nicalon Fibers

Tensile strengths of as-received Hi-Nicalon fibers and those having a dual BN/SiC surface coating, deposited by chemical vapor deposition, have been measured at room temperature. These fibers were also treated with HF for 24 h followed by tensile strength measurements. Strengths of uncoated and BN/SiC coated Hi-Nicalon fibers extracted from celsian matrix composites, by dissolving away the matrix in HF for 24 h, were also determined. The average tensile strength of uncoated Hi-Nicalon was 3.19 +/- 0.73 GPa with a Weibull modulus of 5.41. The Hi-Nicalon/BN/SiC fibers showed an average strength of 3.04 q 0.53 GPa and Weibull modulus of 6.66. After HF treatments, the average strengths of the uncoated and BN/SiC coated Hi-Nicalon fibers were 2.69 +/- 0.67 GPa and 2.80 +/- 0.53 GPa and the Weibull moduli were 4.93 and 5.96, respectively. The BN/SiC coated fibers extracted from the celsian matrix composite exhibited a strength of 2.38 +/- 0.40 GPa and a Weibull modulus of 7.15. The strength of the uncoated Hi-Nicalon fibers in the composite was so severely degraded that they disintegrated into small fragments during extraction with HF. The uncoated fibers probably undergo mechanical surface damage during hot pressing of the composites. Also, the BN layer on the coated fibers acts as a compliant layer which protects the fibers from mechanical damage during composite processing. The elemental composition and thickness of the fiber coatings were deten-nined using scanning Auger analysis. Microstructural analyses of the fibers and the coatings were done by scanning electron microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. Strengths of fibers calculated using average and measured fiber diameters were in good agreement. Thus, the strength of fibers can be evaluated using an average fiber diameter instead of the measured diameter of each filament.

Bansal, Narottam P.↗

DOE OSTI2021

HEPA Filter Age Evaluation Report

In 2020, PNNL completed a literature search for high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filter age information. HEPA filters are used in many operations to remove particulate matter from effluent exhaust streams. They are thought to degrade over time both during proper storage and during normal operational service; however, the rate at which the filters degrade remains unknown. This brings into question if age is an adequate indicator of HEPA filter performance. Data from six previous reports were obtained from the literature search and combined to create a data set of 1600 operating filters. Filter usage was identified from multiple facilities. The various types of filters (e.g., axial flow, self-contained, and standard 24 x 24 x 11.5 inches; and both separator and separatorless) reported were constructed to the requirements Section FC (HEPA Filters) or Section FK (Special HEPA Filters) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers AG-1 code. Filters were presumed to have continuously met the operational criteria and in particular passed both annual efficiency tests and annual DP measurements. The environmental conditions within the exhaust system were also assumed adequate for long-term filter operation. The data, by the nature of the reports, excludes rejected filters from quality assurance evaluations, intake, or installation testing. The collective data set shows over half of were operating past the current 10-year Department of Energy (DOE) limit. Data was evaluated for age lifetime using a linear trendline, survival function, probability functions, and failure rate; financial impacts were also addressed. This report supports the notion that HEPA filters can operate safely and efficiently under proper maintenance well past the 10-year lifetime established by DOE. Using the results of the four age evaluation approaches, they collectively point to the reasonableness of an operating HEPA filter lifetime of 20 years. The results are not necessarily definitive, but nevertheless, they are promising. The analysis provides reasonable assurance that when implemented using a graded approach with well-defined performance and operational requirements, extending the service life for HEPA filters beyond 10 years is low risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1990

Analysis of stratocumulus cloud fields using LANDSAT imagery: Size distributions and spatial separations

Stratocumulus cloud fields in the FIRE IFO region are analyzed using LANDSAT Thematic Mapper imagery. Structural properties such as cloud cell size distribution, cell horizontal aspect ratio, fractional coverage and fractal dimension are determined. It is found that stratocumulus cloud number densities are represented by a power law. Cell horizontal aspect ratio has a tendency to increase at large cell sizes, and cells are bi-fractal in nature. Using LANDSAT Multispectral Scanner imagery for twelve selected stratocumulus scenes acquired during previous years, similar structural characteristics are obtained. Cloud field spatial organization also is analyzed. Nearest-neighbor spacings are fit with a number of functions, with Weibull and Gamma distributions providing the best fits. Poisson tests show that the spatial separations are not random. Second order statistics are used to examine clustering.

Welch, R. M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Micro-tensile characteristics of As-fabricated and irradiated AGR-2 TRISO fuel particle buffer, IPyC, and buffer-IPyC interlayer regions

A recently developed micro-tensile sample preparation technique was implemented to evaluate the tensile strengths of the buffer, IPyC, and buffer-IPyC interlayer regions of the unirradiated and irradiated AGR-2 TRISO fuel particles. Understanding the mechanical properties of the buffer-IPyC interlayer is essential for developing thermomechanical models of buffer-IPyC separation, yet there is a lack of experimental data on its micro-tensile properties. TEM analysis was conducted on these regions to determine the microstructural changes relevant to the samples' tensile properties. In the unirradiated TRISO particle samples, the buffer layer demonstrated the weakest tensile strength, while the IPyC layer exhibited the highest. Conversely, in the irradiated TRISO particle samples, the buffer-IPyC interlayer region showed the lowest tensile strength, with the IPyC layer being the strongest. Fractures in the samples from the buffer-IPyC region predominantly occurred either in the buffer layer or at the buffer-IPyC interface. However, some buffer-IPyC interlayer samples displayed stress-strain and fracture behaviors more akin to the IPyC layer than the buffer layer. Analysis of diffraction patterns suggests that irradiation may have increased anisotropy in the three regions tested. Despite this suggested increase in anisotropy, there was no evidence that it affected the measured strengths. The irradiated TRISO particles demonstrated a considerable increase in void space and a decrease in ultimate tensile strength within the buffer-IPyC interlayer region due to the densification and contraction of the buffer layer. Minor variations in diffraction ring patterns were also observed. These changes, coupled with a significant reduction in the Weibull modulus/shape parameter, imply that irradiation-induced densification leads to tearing between the buffer and IPyC layers at locations of elevated porosity in the buffer-IPyC interlayer region.

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO)↗

NASA NTRS1992

Scale effects on the transverse tensile strength of graphite epoxy composites

The influence of material volume on the transverse tensile strength of AS4/3501-6 graphite epoxy composites was investigated. Tensile tests of 90 degree laminates with 3 different widths and 5 different thicknesses were conducted. A finite element analysis was performed to determine the influence of the grip on the stress distribution in the coupons and explain the tendency for the distribution of failure locations to be skewed toward the grip. Specimens were instrumented with strain gages and extensometers to insure good alignment and to measure failure strains. Data indicated that matrix dominated strength properties varied with the volume of material that was stressed, with the strength decreasing as volume increased. Transverse strength data were used in a volumetric scaling law based on Weibull statistics to predict the strength of 90 degree laminates loaded in three point bending. Comparisons were also made between transverse strength measurements and out-of-plane interlaminar tensile strength measurements from curved beam bending tests. The significance of observed scale effects on the use of tests for material screening, quality assurance, and design allowables is discussed.

Obrien, T. Kevin↗

NASA NTRS1991

Reliability analysis of continuous fiber composite laminates

This paper describes two methods, the maximum distortion energy (MDE) and the principle of independent action (PIA), developed for the analysis of the reliability of a single continuous composite lamina. It is shown that, for the typical laminated plate structure, the individual lamina reliabilities can be combined in order to produce the upper and the lower bounds of reliability for the laminate, similar in nature to the bounds on properties produced from variational elastic methods. These limits were derived for both the interactive and the model failure considerations. Analytical expressions were also derived for the sensitivity of the reliability limits with respect to changes in the Weibull parameters and in loading conditions.

Thomas, David J.↗

NASA NTRS1967

The analysis of Gemini 7 EEG data by three different computer oriented methods

The problem in assessment of electroencephalograms has been the subject element in visual evaluations of such records as well as the need for extensive training (2 or 3 years) before suitable candidate is capable to perform this task. There have been variety of computer type analyses of EEG during the past ten years or more, and we are still searching for a reliable, inexpensive, online data processing procedure for this task. We are aware our Soviet colleagues are routinely using computer assessment of EEGs, using relatively inexpensive hardware. In our report we endeavor to show how four different assessment procedures (visual assessment, zero crossing technique, smoothing and peak counting technique, and Weibull Statistic) may be utilized, and indicate the advantages and disadvantages peculiar to each. We wish to point out that in the Gemini 7 EEG analog records supplied to the Henry Ford Hospital, Channel II (mid-line central to mid-line occipital electrodes) could not be assessed reliably after approximately 26 hours of flight. Channel I (left central to left occipital electrodes) provided the more assessable EEG up to approximately 54 hours of flight. These channels were compared during the first 26 hours of flight, and no significant difference was found by our various assessment procedures. We, therefore, have limited this report to the findings on the analyses of Channel I during its approximate 54 hours of flight.

Proctor, L. D.↗

NASA NTRS1997

A Statistical Simulation Approach to Safe Life Fatigue Analysis of Redundant Metallic Components

This paper introduces a dual active load path fail-safe fatigue design concept analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation. The concept utilizes the inherent fatigue life differences between selected pairs of components for an active dual path system, enhanced by a stress level bias in one component. The design is applied to a baseline design; a safe life fatigue problem studied in an American Helicopter Society (AHS) round robin. The dual active path design is compared with a two-element standby fail-safe system and the baseline design for life at specified reliability levels and weight. The sensitivity of life estimates for both the baseline and fail-safe designs was examined by considering normal and Weibull distribution laws and coefficient of variation levels. Results showed that the biased dual path system lifetimes, for both the first element failure and residual life, were much greater than for standby systems. The sensitivity of the residual life-weight relationship was not excessive at reliability levels up to R = 0.9999 and the weight penalty was small. The sensitivity of life estimates increases dramatically at higher reliability levels.

Matthews, William T.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Development of a funding, cost, and spending model for satellite projects

The need for a predictive budget/funging model is obvious. The current models used by the Resource Analysis Office (RAO) are used to predict the total costs of satellite projects. An effort to extend the modeling capabilities from total budget analysis to total budget and budget outlays over time analysis was conducted. A statistical based and data driven methodology was used to derive and develop the model. Th budget data for the last 18 GSFC-sponsored satellite projects were analyzed and used to build a funding model which would describe the historical spending patterns. This raw data consisted of dollars spent in that specific year and their 1989 dollar equivalent. This data was converted to the standard format used by the RAO group and placed in a database. A simple statistical analysis was performed to calculate the gross statistics associated with project length and project cost ant the conditional statistics on project length and project cost. The modeling approach used is derived form the theory of embedded statistics which states that properly analyzed data will produce the underlying generating function. The process of funding large scale projects over extended periods of time is described by Life Cycle Cost Models (LCCM). The data was analyzed to find a model in the generic form of a LCCM. The model developed is based on a Weibull function whose parameters are found by both nonlinear optimization and nonlinear regression. In order to use this model it is necessary to transform the problem from a dollar/time space to a percentage of total budget/time space. This transformation is equivalent to moving to a probability space. By using the basic rules of probability, the validity of both the optimization and the regression steps are insured. This statistically significant model is then integrated and inverted. The resulting output represents a project schedule which relates the amount of money spent to the percentage of project completion.

Johnson, Jesse P.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Grain boundary oxidation and an analysis of the effects of oxidation on fatigue crack nucleation life

The effects of preoxidation on subsequent fatigue life were studied. Surface oxidation and grain boundary oxidation of a nickel-base superalloy (TAZ-8A) were studied at 600 to 1000 C for 10 to 1000 hours in air. Surface oxides were identified and the kinetics of surface oxidation was discussed. Grain boundary oxide penetration and morphology were studied. Pancake type grain boundary oxide penetrates deeper and its size is larger, therefore, it is more detrimental to fatigue life than cone-type grain boundary oxide. Oxide penetration depth, a (sub m), is related to oxidation temperature, T, and exposure time, t, by an empirical relation of the Arrhenius type. Effects of T and t on statistical variation of a (sub m) were analyzed according to the Weibull distribution function. Once the oxide is cracked, it serves as a fatigue crack nucleus. Statistical variation of the remaining fatigue life, after the formation of an oxide crack of a critical length, is related directly to the statistical variation of grain boundary oxide penetration depth.

Oshida, Y.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure

A probabilistic finite element program is used to perform probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure. The program used in this study is NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structure Under Stress), under development at Southwest Research Institute. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the radial stress of a thick-walled cylinder under internal pressure is computed and compared with the analytical solution. In addition, sensitivity factors showing the relative importance of the input random variables are calculated. Significant plasticity is present in this problem and has a pronounced effect on the probabilistic results. The random input variables are the material yield stress and internal pressure with Weibull and normal distributions, respectively. The results verify the ability of NESSUS to compute the CDF and sensitivity factors of a materially nonlinear structure. In addition, the ability of the Advanced Mean Value (AMV) procedure to assess the probabilistic behavior of structures which exhibit a highly nonlinear response is shown. Thus, the AMV procedure can be applied with confidence to other structures which exhibit nonlinear behavior.

Millwater, H. R.↗