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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1988

The effects of biomass burning on the concentration of trace gases in the atmosphere

Over the past several years, there has been considerable interest concerning the global effects of biomass burning on concentrations of trace gases in the atmosphere. The paucity of reported studies and investigations into the effects of the Greenhouse Gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), up until about a decade ago, would suggest that the topic was not then one of universal concern. Efforts are now being made to understand the biogenic, anthropogenic and photochemical sources of atmospheric trace gases. Biomass burning which includes the burning of forests for clearing, the burning of vegetative stubble after harvesting, and lightning and human-induced wildfires is but one consideration under the general paradigm of atmospheric perturbations. A team of researchers from the Langley Research Center, along with the Canadian Forest Ministry, Ontario, Canada collaborated in an experiment in a deforestration effort through a prescribed burn. Through a specially designed experimental modeling and instrumentation, a substantial pre-burn data set was collected. The primary focus of the pre-burn experimental activities was the emission of nitrous oxide (N2O) gas from selected sites.

Donaldson, Leon M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of COVID-Global Shutdown on Earth's Radiation Budget

Climate is fueled by how much of the sun’s energy is absorbed by Earth. Changes in aerosol emissions have a direct impact how much solar energy is absorbed under clear-sky conditions, which occurs roughly one-third of the time globally. Aerosol emission changes can also indirectly influence clouds and further alter solar energy absorption. In this presentation, we examine the impact of the COVID-19 global shutdown on Earth’s radiation budget at global and regional scales and compare it with other changes that have had an influence on Earth's radiation budget during the past 20 years—including policy-related emission controls, wildfire events and changes in sea-ice extent in polar regions. We use a novel analysis technique together with data from NASA instruments on the Terra, Aqua and Aura satellites and reanalysis data from MERRA-2. We also compare results with state-of-the-art general circulation models that have been nudged to reanalysis data (winds, air temperature and surface 25 pressure) at all levels. Our preliminary results show that the largest COVID-19 impact occurs regionally over the East Asian Marginal Seas, just off the coast of China. We find a 30% reduction in aerosol optical depth according to the MODIS instrument, and an 8% reduction in reflected solar radiation according to the CERES radiation budget instrument. The climate model simulations show remarkable consistency with the observations and furthermore show no evidence of an indirect effect on cloud properties.

Norman G. Loeb↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Combining NASA Earth Observations and Commercial Smallsat Data to Inform Localized Decision Making

NASA's Earth Science Division's DEVELOP Program builds capacity in individuals and partner organizations to research the feasibility of using Earth observations for informed environmental decision making. Employing an internship-like model, DEVELOP conducts 10-week long feasibility studies that are focused on decision-making organizations' environmental concerns. These projects use the vantage point of space to address environmental issues across a broad set of themes, including agricultural monitoring, disaster risk and resilience planning, water resource and coastal management, wildfire cartography, health & air quality, and urban development. Following the establishment of NASA's Commercial Smallsat Data Acquisition (CSDA) Program, DEVELOP began adding commercial smallsat data into a subset of its feasibility projects. This presentation will highlight the program's use of CSDA data and its integration with NASA Earth observing fleet data, showcase example use cases, speak to challenges faced by the DEVELOP team in using CSDA data, and the broad array of thematic and topical applications created by DEVELOP teams.

Lisa Tanh↗
NASA NTRS2022

Simultaneous Characterization of Wildfire Smoke and Surface Properties With Imaging Spectroscopy During the FIREX-AQ Field Campaign

We introduce and evaluate an approach for the simultaneous retrieval of aerosol and surface properties from Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer Classic (AVIRIS-C) data collected during wildfires. The joint National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality field campaign took place in August 2019, and involved two aircraft and coordinated ground-based observations. The AVIRIS-C instrument acquired data from onboard NASA's high altitude ER-2 research aircraft, coincident in space and time with aerosol observations obtained from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) DRAGON mobile platform in the smoke plume downwind of the Williams Flats Fire in northern Washington in August 2019. Observations in this smoke plume were used to assess the capacity of optimal-estimation based retrievals to simultaneously estimate aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface reflectance from Visible Shortwave Infrared (VSWIR) imaging spectroscopy. Radiative transfer modeling of the sensitivities in spectral information collected over smoke reveal the potential capacity of high spectral resolution retrievals to distinguish between sulfate and smoke aerosol models, as well as sensitivity to the aerosol size distribution. Comparison with ground-based AERONET observations demonstrates that AVIRIS-C retrievals of AOD compare favorably with direct sun AOD measurements. Our analyses suggest that spectral information collected from the full VSWIR spectral interval, not just the shortest wavelengths, enables accurate retrievals. We use this approach to continuously map both aerosols and surface reflectance at high spatial resolution across heterogeneous terrain, even under relatively high AOD conditions associated with wildfire smoke.

FIREX-AQ↗
NASA NTRS2014

Wildfire Emissions and Their Interaction with Urban and Rural Pollution: Data and Simulations

In recent years NASA has conducted a series of airborne campaigns (e. g. SEAC4RS*, ARCTAS, INTEX-A/B) over North America using an instrumented DC-8 aircraft equipped to measure a very large number of gaseous and aerosol constituents including several unique tracers. In these campaigns wild fires were extensively sampled near source as well as downwind after aging. The data provided detailed information on the composition and chemistry of fire emissions under a variety of atmospheric conditions as well as their interactions with rural and urban air pollution. Major fires studied including the California Rim fire in 2013 (SEAC4RS), the 2008 California wildfires (ARCTAS), and the Alaskan fires downwind over eastern US (INTEX-A). Although some fire plumes contained virtually no O3 enhancement, others showed significant ozone formation. Over Los Angeles, the highest O3 mixing ratios were observed in fire influenced urban air masses. Attempts to simulate these interactions using state of the art models were only minimally successful and indicated several shortcomings in simulating fire emission influences on urban smog formation. A variety of secondary oxidation products (e. g. O3, PAN, HCHO) were substantially underestimated. We will discuss the data collected in fire influenced air masses and their potential air quality implications.

FIre Emissions↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advanced Information Systems Technology for NASA Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT)

ESA and NASA have both started programs to design and develop Digital Twins of the Earth and/or Earth systems. Organized around interconnected, multi-domain, high-scale modeling capabilities, the three major components of an Earth System Digital Twin are a continuously updated Digital Replica of the Earth System of interest, dynamic Forecasting models, and Impact Assessment capabilities. Earth System Digital Twins integrate diverse Earth and human activity models, continuous observations, and information system capabilities to provide unified, comprehensive representations and predictions that can be utilized for monitoring the health of the Planet, as well as for developing actionable information to support decision making. More generally, Digital Twins will help researchers better understand the fundamental Earth systems that impact everything from wildfires to climate change. This Townhall will first provide a short description of ESA’s, NASA’s and CNES’s current efforts in Digital Twins: • Destination Earth (DestinE) is the first initiative of the European Union to create a Digital Twin of the Earth, particularly focused on weather and climate, and as a coordinated effort between the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), ESA and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT). • Additionally, ESA is developing several Digital Twin Earth Precursor Activities to study some of the key scientific and technical challenges associated with building a “Digital Twin Earth”. These include forests, hydrology, Antarctica, food systems, oceans, and climate hot spots Digital Twin prototypes. • NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO)’s Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program has started an initiative in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT), with 14 current projects in this area, developing various information systems technologies and prototypes that will help prepare the development of future NASA Digital Twins. • CNES is currently developing the concept of a Digital Twin Factory (DTF), which relies on a data lake, a high computing capability using clouds and/or HPC and has thematic algorithms and methodologies able to generate registered and coherent layers of information in order to enrich a datacube from which physical indicators can be computed spatially. NASA, ESA and CNES are also currently defining science use cases that will be presented during the townhall; those and a few short discussions of current projects will serve as a starting point to engage a dialogue about Digital Twins of the Earth with the IGARSS community.

earth science remote sensing; Information systems↗
NASA NTRS2024

Northern Colorado Water Resources: Using Earth Observations to Assess Relationships between Snowpack and Wildfires for Water Utility Management

In recent years, wildfires in the western U.S. have increased in size, frequency, and severity. Colorado is no exception to this trend, with many recent wildfires raising concerns. The Cameron Peak and East Troublesome Fires, the two largest recorded wildfires in Colorado history, burned over 400,000 acres in 2020. Wildfires pose a significant threat to high-elevation ecosystems, especially in terms of disturbances to watershed resources. Colorado’s annual water supply is dependent upon the melt and runoff of high-elevation snowpack, thus understanding wildfire effects is crucial. This project partnered with Northern Water, a water management company in Colorado, to explore fire impacts on Colorado Front Range watersheds and water supply forecasts. We investigated the use of remote sensing to study the influences of wildfire on snow depth, as Northern Water had previously relied on field-based observations of snowpack for their water supply forecasts. This project utilized airborne LiDAR data from Airborne Snow Observatories, Inc., Landsat 8 OLI derived products, as well as in situ snow survey data from Colorado State University to assess and model changes in snowpack over time. We uncovered key drivers of change in snowpack such as burn severity and snow zone and created a random forest model to determine and investigate their relationships. Despite temporal data availability limitations, analysis also showed that remotely-sensed snow depth measurements were strongly correlated with in situ snow depth measurements, revealing the accuracy and feasibility of using remote sensing technologies to study landscape-scale snowpack characteristics for water utility management purposes.

airborne LiDAR↗
NASA NTRS2004

Characterization of Transport Errors in Chemical Forecasts from a Global Tropospheric Chemical Transport Model

We propose a new methodology to characterize errors in the representation of transport processes in chemical transport models. We constrain the evaluation of a global three-dimensional chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM) with an extended dataset of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations obtained during the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft campaign. The TRACEP mission took place over the western Pacific, a region frequently impacted by continental outflow associated with different synoptic-scale weather systems (such as cold fronts) and deep convection, and thus provides a valuable dataset. for our analysis. Model simulations using both forecast and assimilated meteorology are examined. Background CO concentrations are computed as a function of latitude and altitude and subsequently subtracted from both the observed and the model datasets to focus on the ability of the model to simulate variability on a synoptic scale. Different sampling strategies (i.e., spatial displacement and smoothing) are applied along the flight tracks to search for systematic model biases. Statistical quantities such as correlation coefficient and centered root-mean-square difference are computed between the simulated and the observed fields and are further inter-compared using Taylor diagrams. We find no systematic bias in the model for the TRACE-P region when we consider the entire dataset (i.e., from the surface to 12 km ). This result indicates that the transport error in our model is globally unbiased, which has important implications for using the model to conduct inverse modeling studies. Using the First-Look assimilated meteorology only provides little improvement of the correlation, in comparison with the forecast meteorology. These general statements can be refined when the entire dataset is divided into different vertical domains, i.e., the lower troposphere (less than 2 km), the middle troposphere (2-6 km), and the upper troposphere (greater than 6 km). The best agreement between the observations and the model is found in the lower and middle troposphere. Downward displacements in the lower troposphere provide a better fit with the observed value, which could indicate a problem in the representation of boundary layer height in the model. Significant improvement is also found for downward and southward displacements in the upper troposphere. There are several potential sources of errors in our simulation of the continental outflow in the upper troposphere which could lead to such biases, including the location and/or the strength of deep convective cells as well as that of wildfires in Southeast Asia.

Bey, I.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Global Analysis of Wildfire Smoke Injection Heights Derived from Space-Based Multi-Angle Imaging

We present an analysis of over 23,000 globally distributed wildfire smoke plume injection heights derived from Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) space-based, multi-angle stereo imaging. Both pixel-weighted and aerosol optical depth (AOD)-weighted results are given, stratified by region, biome, and month or season. This offers an observational resource for assessing first-principle plume-rise modelling, and can provide some constraints on smoke dispersion modelling for climate and air quality applications. The main limitation is that the satellite is in a sun-synchronous orbit, crossing the equator at about 10:30 a.m. local time on the day side. Overall, plumes occur preferentially during the northern mid-latitude burning season, and the vast majority inject smoke near-surface. However, the heavily forested regions of North and South America, and Africa produce the most frequent elevated plumes and the highest AOD values; some smoke is injected to altitudes well above 2 km in nearly all regions and biomes. Planetary boundary layer (PBL) versus free troposphere injection is a critical factor affecting smoke dispersion and environmental impact, and is affected by both the smoke injection height and the PBL height; an example assessment is made here, but constraining the PBL height for this application warrants further work.

Val Martin, Maria↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment IV

Atmospheric composition continues to be a key Earth science focus for international space agencies and research organizations. The target constituent varies depending upon the topic area of interest such as monitoring the ozone layer and the efficacy of the Montreal Protocol, assessing the influence of volcanic eruptions and large wildfires on the atmosphere, improving our knowledge of transport processes, or evaluating the impacts of greenhouse gases on climate. Additionally, there is a growing need for measurement continuity of many trace gases both from an inability to properly assess long-term trends without it as well as the reliance of reanalyses and chemistry climate models on observational input. To this end, proper continuity requires continuous and overlapping multi-instrument data records of which spaceborne measurements are a critical component. However, most current satellite systems are well beyond their expected lifetimes, and so we look toward the future to develop the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) IV as a future mission concept. Enabled by the NASA Earth Science Technology Office’s (ESTO) Instrument Incubator Program, the SAGE IV Pathfinder project has developed and validated a prototype demonstration that paves the way for a future SAGE IV spaceflight mission. Utilizing solar occultation imaging, SAGE IV will be capable of measuring key species in the stratosphere and upper troposphere with the same quality as previous SAGE instruments but with greatly improved pointing knowledge and extensibility to new science targets. Furthermore, current technological advancements allow SAGE IV to fit within a CubeSat framework and make use of commercial hardware, significantly reducing the size and cost when compared with traditional missions and enabling sustainability of future measurements.

Robert Damadeo↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) IV

Atmospheric composition continues to be a key Earth science focus for international space agencies and research organizations. The target constituent varies depending upon the topic area of interest such as monitoring the ozone layer and the efficacy of the Montreal Protocol, assessing the influence of volcanic eruptions and large wildfires on the atmosphere, improving our knowledge of transport processes, or evaluating the impacts of greenhouse gases on climate. Additionally, there is a growing need for measurement continuity of many trace gases both from an inability to properly assess long-term trends without it as well as the reliance of reanalyses and chemistry climate models on observational input. To this end, proper continuity requires continuous and overlapping multi-instrument data records of which spaceborne measurements are a critical component. However, most current satellite systems are well beyond their expected lifetimes, and so we look toward the future to develop the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) IV as a future mission concept. Enabled by the NASA Earth Science Technology Office’s (ESTO) Instrument Incubator Program, the SAGE IV Pathfinder project developed and validated a prototype demonstration that paves the way for a future SAGE IV spaceflight mission. Utilizing solar occultation imaging, SAGE IV will be capable of measuring key species in the stratosphere and upper troposphere with the same quality as previous SAGE instruments but with greatly improved pointing knowledge and extensibility to new science targets. The precision and stability of a well-designed occultation instrument can act as a calibration reference standard for other spaceborne instruments, ensuring proper continuity of the desired science targets. Furthermore, current technological advancements allow SAGE IV to fit within a CubeSat framework and make use of commercial hardware, significantly reducing the size and cost when compared with traditional missions and enabling sustainability of future measurements.

Robert Damadeo↗
NASA NTRS2010

High-Volume Airborne Fluids Handling Technologies to Fight Wildfires

NASA recently partnered with the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) on a project to examine mission suitability and recommend policies and procedures for the use of very large aerial firefighting aircraft such as the Boeing 747 and DC-10 aerial retardant delivery aircraft. The aircraft under study included a 10Tanker DC-10 and an Evergreen B-747. NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center and Ames Research Center worked with the USFS to help determine the safe flight envelope for these Very Large Air Tanker (VLAT) aircraft for the USFS and the Department of the Interior (DOI). This new generation of supertankers includes aircraft like these that have as much as four times the delivery capacity of the previous generation of aerial firefighting aircraft. Dryden performed operational test and evaluation assessments and reported findings and recommendations on these aircraft in cooperation with Ames. The team developed, implemented, and directed an evaluation test plan for use in flight test and in simulation. Ames provided support using pilot-in-the-loop simulations and coordinated simulator models, flight profiles, and data analysis with Dryden. The test plan was designed to evaluate the suitability of VLAT aircraft as a function of mission environment. Based on this analysis, NASA generated interim flight envelope limitations to enhance safety and operational utility in the fire-retardant delivery mission. These recommended flight limitations were adopted by the USFS. The 10Tanker DC-10 has been in use for several years with the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection(Cal-Fire), but until NASA took on the challenge of reviewing VLAT capabilities and limitations, the USFS was hesitant to add them to the federal wildfire arsenal. The DC-10 delivery system is based on an externally mounted set of tanks and a bomb-bay style set of clamshell doors that are opened in precisely calibrated ways to deliver the amounts and concentrations of retardant called for by the specific wildfire situation. The system was manufactured by Jordan Air of Central Point, OR, and was installed by Victorville Aerospace in Victorville, CA. It can deliver 12,000 gallons (45.4 kL) of retardant in as little as eight seconds. The aircraft can deliver a partial load of retardant and make multiple drops on the same flight, or the entire load can be rapidly delivered in one pass if required for maximum coverage. The Evergreen 747 uses internal tankage and a pressurized delivery system to enable volume and coverage levels that also meet USFS requirements, but enables computer control of flow for desired precision. This system was designed and built by Adaptive Aerospace of Tehachapi, CA and can deliver about 20,000 gallons (75.7 kL) of retardant in approximately ten seconds. The 747 can also make multiple independent drops, or deliver the entire load at once. NASA found that both of these VLAT aircraft are compatible with the wildfire suppression mission when used to supplement other aerial retardant delivery platforms. The major recommendations for deployment that resulted from this study relate to terrain clearance, the type of terrain in the drop area, availability of qualified lead planes to guide the VLAT approach to the drop area, and low-altitude maneuvering limitations. NASA s analysis suggests that with the appropriate flight procedures, these aircraft will provide a powerful set of tools to fight wildfires.

Dickerson, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2022

Evaluation and Improvement of System-of-Systems Resilience in a Simulation of Wildfire Emergency Response

Because of the increasing threat that wildfires pose, there is interest in leveraging new technologies to improve firefighting. Specifically, Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and UAS Traffic Management (UTM) promise to improve firefighters’ situational awareness, coordination, communications, safety, and strategy. While these technologies could be beneficial, there has been little formal investigation into how much benefit would occur and whether these benefits would outweigh hazards introduced by these systems. To better understand the impacts of these technologies, this paper presents a high-level dynamic simulation for evaluating wildfire response performance and resilience incorporating fire propagation, surveillance and communication, response planning, and the resulting mitigation actions. This simulation is then used to study the impact of communications and surveillance improvement, considering (1) the effect on fire containment and ground crew injuries and (2) the effect of introduced and existing disruptive fault scenarios. Simulating this model over a large number of scenarios finds that these changes can improve containment and reduce ground crew injuries. While these improvements generalize over both existing and introduced single-fault scenarios and thus result in a more resilient system, they could be negated if the introduced communications infrastructure is prone to full-scale outages.

modeling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping Surface Vapor Pressure Deficits From Geostationary Satellites for Fire Weather Monitoring

The increase in the wildfires were observed globally in accordance with global warming, and to real- time monitoring of wildfire risk in broad scale is demanded for wildfire management to prevent the spread of wildfires. Scientists invented a lot of indices to assess the wildfire risk. Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) is one of the most important meteorological components for those indices. Compared to other components of fire weather indices, VPD can change quickly from lower risk to higher risk even in sub-hourly. Therefore, real-time fire risk monitoring requires high-resolution and high- temporal VPD spatial map. Here, we developed VPD estimation method using the GOES Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) data. Unlike the polar-orbital satellite data, the ABI can observe target region every 10 minutes, so that we can estimate VPD for fire weather in real-time. The method used to estimate VPD is same with the algorithm of NASA Earth Exchange Gridded Daily Meteorology (NEX- GDM), which estimate meteorological variables from ground weather observation and spatial variables based on random forest (RF). We calculated RF importance to select bands of ABI as input of the model. To validate our results, we compared the spatial pattern of our VPD data with the Real- Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) data over the conterminous USA. We sought possibility of applying our method to the region where no real-time high-resolution weather data is available, such as South America. The developed method can produce real-time high-resolution high-frequent VPD data in the continental scale. The derived data from GOES ABI could contribute to improve the fire weather monitoring and lead to prevent wildfires.

Hirofumi Hashimoto↗
NASA NTRS2012

Assessing the Association Between Asthma and Air Quality in the Presence of Wildfires

Asthma hospital/emergency room (patient) data are used as the foundation for creating a health outcome indicator of human response to environmental air quality. Daily U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System (AQS) fine particulates (PM2.5) ground data and the U.S. National Aeronautical Space Administration (NASA) MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) data were acquired and processed for years of 2007 and 2008. Figure 1 shows the PM2.5 annual mean composite of all the 2007 B-spline daily surfaces. Initial models for predicting the number of weekly asthma cases within a Florida county has focused on environmental variables. Weekly maximums of PM2.5, relative humidity, and the proportions of the county with smoke and fire were the environmental variables included in the model. Cosine and sine functions of time were used to account for seasonality in asthma cases. Counties were considered to be random effects, thereby adjusting for differences in socio ]demographics and other factors. The 2007 predictions for Miami ]Dade county when using B ]splines PM2.5 are displayed in Figures 2.

Young, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Space-Based Sensorweb Monitoring of Wildfires in Thailand

We describe efforts to apply sensorweb technologies to the monitoring of forest fires in Thailand. In this approach, satellite data and ground reports are assimilated to assess the current state of the forest system in terms of forest fire risk, active fires, and likely progression of fires and smoke plumes. This current and projected assessment can then be used to actively direct sensors and assets to best acquire further information. This process operates continually with new data updating models of fire activity leading to further sensing and updating of models. As the fire activity is tracked, products such as active fire maps, burn scar severity maps, and alerts are automatically delivered to relevant parties.We describe the current state of the Thailand Fire Sensorweb which utilizes the MODIS-based FIRMS system to track active fires and trigger Earth Observing One / Advanced Land Imager to acquire imagery and produce active fire maps, burn scar severity maps, and alerts. We describe ongoing work to integrate additional sensor sources and generate additional products.

sensorweb↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TIE02. IGARSS’2024 Townhall on “Digital Twins for Earth Science

NASA, ESA, NOAA, CNES and several other international organizations have started programs to design and develop Digital Twins of the Earth and/or Earth systems. Earth Systems Digital Twins (ESDTs) are dynamic and interactive information systems for understanding, forecasting, and conjecturing the complex interconnections among Earth systems, including anthropomorphic forcings and impacts to humanity. Organized around interconnected, multi-domain, high-scale modeling capabilities, the three major components of an Earth System Digital Twin are a continuously updated Digital Replica of the Earth System of interest (or “What Now”), dynamic Forecasting models (or “What Next”), and Impact Assessment capabilities (or “What If”). ESDTs provide unified, comprehensive representations and predictions that can be utilized for monitoring the health of the Planet, as well as for developing actionable information to support decision making. More generally, Digital Twins will help researchers better understand the fundamental Earth systems that impact everything from wildfires to climate change. This Townhall will provide a status of Destination Earth as well as ESA’s, NASA’s, CNES’s and NOAA’s current independent and common efforts in Digital Twins; then the four organizations will provide information about community building before engaging a dialogue about Digital Twins of the Earth with the IGARSS community.

Earth Science Remote Sensing; Information Systems;↗
NASA NTRS2026

Proactive Wildfire Management: A Remote Sensing and Multimodal CNN-MLP Architecture for Ignition Risk Forecasting

As the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase, with fire seasons now starting earlier and ending later than they have over the past decades, current monitoring systems, such as lookout towers and satellites, are hindered by cloud cover, low-resolution imagery, and static data gaps that fail to track vegetation moisture levels fast enough to catch rapid pre-ignition changes. This report proposes a Machine Learning-enabled Wildfire Ignition Prediction framework that combines satellite monitoring with dynamic and high-resolution remote sensing from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms. The method would use multispectral and thermal data from the Landsat program to create a baseline for vegetation health, calculating a two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) and the moisture content of the vegetation. These inputs will later be fused with microscale UAV weather data, including thermal hotspots found through thick canopies, hyperspectral chemical signatures of pre-visual combustion, and local weather streams. The multispectral satellite, multispectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and thermal data would then be processed through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), alongside a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for the micro-weather telemetry. The outputs of these networks would be fused into a single feature representation and passed through a final prediction network to generate real-time ignition risk scores and hotspot alerts. Model performance would be assessed using standard classification metrics, including a Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) and F1 score. This system would allow first responders to identify high-risk zones and intervene before ignition occurs, improving emergency response time compared to current approaches.

machine learning↗