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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Robust Dark Energy Constraints with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Survey (Final Technical Report)

This project developed and applied advanced theoretical, computational, and data-analysis methodologies to extract robust and precise cosmological constraints from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). The work focused on maximizing the scientific return of DESI through optimized survey strategy, novel higher-order clustering statistics, improved modeling of small-scale structure, and rigorous mitigation of observational systematics. Over the award period, the project made substantial contributions to DESI science planning, produced new methods for bispectrum and three-point correlation function analyses, advanced constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity, and delivered widely used software tools. The project also played a major role in training graduate students and a postdoctoral researcher who contributed directly to DESI key projects. The results have significantly enhanced the cosmological reach of DESI and provide a strong foundation for future surveys such as DESI-II and Stage-V experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Divide and conquer: using RhizoVision Explorer to aggregate data from multiple root scans using image concatenation and statistical methods

Roots are important in agricultural and natural systems for determining plant productivity and soil carbon inputs. Sometimes, the amount of roots in a sample is too much to fit into a single scanned image, so the sample is divided among several scans, and there is no standard method to aggregate the data. Here, we describe and validate two methods for standardizing measurements across multiple scans: image concatenation and statistical aggregation. We developed a Python script that identifies which images belong to the same sample and returns a single, larger concatenated image. These concatenated images and the original images were processed with RhizoVision Explorer, a free and open-source software. An R script was developed, which identifies rows of data belonging to the same sample and applies correct statistical methods to return a single data row for each sample. These two methods were compared using example images from switchgrass, poplar, and various tree and ericaceous shrub species from a northern peatland and the Arctic. Most root measurements were nearly identical between the two methods except median diameter, which cannot be accurately computed by statistical aggregation. We believe the availability of these methods will be useful to the root biology community.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

New results in the CTEQ-TEA global analysis of parton distributions in the nucleon

This report summarizes the latest developments in the CTEQ-TEA global analysis of parton distribution functions (PDFs) in the nucleon. The focus is on recent NNLO fits to high-precision LHC data at 8 and 13 TeV, including Drell–Yan, jet, and top-quark pair production, pursued on the way toward the release of the new generation of CTEQ-TEA general-purpose PDFs. The report also discusses advancements in statistical and numerical methods for PDF determination and uncertainty quantification, highlighting the importance of robust and replicable uncertainties for high-stakes observables. Additionally, it covers phenomenological studies related to PDF determination, such as the interplay of experimental constraints, exploration of correlations between high-x nucleon sea and low-energy parity-violating measurements, fitted charm in the nucleon, the photon PDF in the neutron, and simultaneous SMEFT-PDF analyses.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fuel performance analysis of fully-resolved TRISO compact

The TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel multilayered coating structure offers multiple barriers to fission product release, enhancing safety and performance. The heterogeneous nature of TRISO fuel compacts, comprising thousands of randomly distributed coated fuel particles embedded in a graphite matrix, creates intricate stress fields and thermal gradients that cannot be accurately modeled using simplified one-dimensional or homogenized approaches. Consequently, three-dimensional modeling enables the prediction of fuel compact dimensional changes, internal pressure buildup, and fission product transport pathways under diverse irradiation and thermal conditions. This capability facilitates detailed analysis of particle-to-particle interactions, matrix cracking mechanisms, and the statistical distribution of coating failures, which directly impact fuel performance and safety margins. This capability is particularly critical for advanced reactors, such as high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and other Generation IV reactor designs where TRISO fuel operates at elevated temperatures and burn-up levels. This work introduces a novel method to generate an optimized packing of TRISO compacts and a complete 3D mesh with random distribution of TRISO particles, which are discretized into each coating component layer.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical analysis of HAADF-STEM images to determine the surface coverage and distribution of immobilized molecular complexes

The surface immobilization of molecular catalysts is attractive because it combines the benefits of homogeneous and heterogeneous catalysis. However, determining the surface coverage and distribution of a molecular catalyst on a solid support is often challenging, inhibiting our ability to design improved catalytic systems. Here, in this work, we demonstrate that the combination of scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) and image analysis of the individual positions of heavy atoms in transition metal complexes via a convolutional neural network (CNN) allows statistically robust determination of the surface coverage and distribution of immobilized molecular catalysts. These observations provide information about how changes in the functionalization conditions, attachment group, and structure of the molecular catalyst affect the surface coverage and distribution, providing insight into the chemical mechanism of surface immobilization. The method could be generally valuable for correlating the surface coverage and distribution to the activity, selectivity, and stability of a catalytic system.

HAADF-STEM↗
DOE OSTI2025

DROP DURABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ELECTRONIC ASSEMBLIES UNDER OFF-AXIS LOADING WITH SKEWED FIXTURES

This thesis studies drop durability of electronic assemblies when the acceleration vector is oriented at 45° to the out-of-plane direction of the circuit card. The off-axis drop tests are accomplished with a skewed fixture and are conducted as a proxy for multiaxial drop testing. Advanced shock testing and vibration test methods have been developed over the last few decades to better represent real-world field environments during ground-based laboratory testing. However, many of these test methods require expensive and specialized equipment not available in most laboratories. An alternative approach for approximating simultaneous loading along multiple axes on conventional equipment utilizes skewed fixtures which have seen use in off-axis random vibration and drop impact testing. These methods generally rely on the conversion of a uniaxial input load from the test equipment (using a uniaxial drop tower or shaker) into a multiaxial load when resolved in the reference frame of the test article (mounted on a skewed fixture). Skewed fixture design is presented and recommendations for conducting skewed angle drop testing are introduced based on local measurements along the skewed face of the fixture to accurately monitor the impact event. Characterization tests were performed with a skewed fixture, at simultaneous acceleration loads from 500 to 3,000 g in two (in-plane and out-of-plane) directions, while meeting standard time domain tolerances. Upon experimental characterization, drop shock durability tests were conducted on a printed circuit assembly (PCA). Mean drops-to-failure were measured and quantified with Weibull statistics. Dominant solder joint failure modes were identified via failure analysis. Prior work on inclined angle impact testing is limited, and the majority of solder joint interconnect level fatigue studies are conducted considering perpendicular loading normal the circuit card. Low-cycle fatigue curves are generated based on plastic strain and plastic work density within the solder joint. A multiscale nonlinear finite element model is used to relate board-level flexure to solder joint interconnect level plastic strain. A high strain rate solder constitutive model allows for accurate modeling of solder plasticity resulting from high-impact drop shock. Fatigue parameters are computed from the Coffin-Manson relation and Palmgren-Miner damage accumulation. This work serves to apply established low-cycle fatigue methods for conventional drop shock loading (impact normal to circuit card) to non-perpendicular loading with a skewed fixture.

Hower, Jonathan [Kansas City National Security Cam↗
DOE OSTI2025

A statistical and simulation-informed model for estimating permeability from pore size distribution in saturated geomaterials

Accurate permeability estimation is essential across subsurface engineering applications but remains challenging due to the complex pore structures of natural geomaterials. Traditional empirical methods and simplified theoretical models often inadequately capture the role of pore size distribution and connectivity. Here, this study develops a statistical and simulation-informed permeability model that collapses pore-scale complexity into a compact scaling of the form k = αϕμ d 2 , where ϕ is porosity, μ d is mean pore size, and α is a weakly varying coefficient. By combining pore network simulations with statistical analysis of unimodal and bimodal pore size distributions, we identify three key findings: (i) permeability is much more sensitive to mean pore size than to porosity; (ii) across extensive datasets, the ratio σ d /μ d (standard deviation to mean) clusters around a characteristic value ∼0.4, allowing the effects of the full pore size distribution to be represented by μ d and a narrowly varying α ≈ 0.05; and (iii) for bimodal systems, there exists a critical fraction of small pores ∼0.78 above which flow becomes small-pore dominated, enabling the definition of an effective flow-controlling pore population and facilitating simplified permeability estimation for such systems. The resulting model, which requires only porosity and a representative mean pore size as inputs, is validated against comprehensive experimental datasets (>1700 samples) spanning diverse soils and rocks and achieves good predictive accuracy. Overall, this work provides a physically grounded yet practically simple permeability estimator suitable for subsurface engineering, environmental protection, and resource management applications.

Permeability↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emerging Technologies for Privacy Preservation in Energy Systems

This study explores the intersection of digitalization and privacy within the energy sector, focusing on the emerging challenges and opportunities presented by integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) and advanced metering infrastructure. The need for robust digital privacy measures has become crucial as the energy industry evolves towards a more decentralized, digitalized, and decarbonized future. This study delves into four cutting-edge privacy-preserving technologies—Homomorphic Encryption (HE), Secure Multiparty Computation (SMPC), Differential Privacy (DP), and Federated Learning (FL)—each offering unique solutions to safeguard consumer data by increasing digital connectivity and data exchange. Through a detailed examination of these methods, the study explains how each technology operates, its applications within the energy sector, and the specific privacy challenges it addresses. Homomorphic Encryption allows for secure computations on encrypted data, enabling data analysis without compromising privacy. Secure Multiparty Computation enables collaborative data analysis across different entities while protecting the confidentiality of the inputs. Differential Privacy introduces randomness into the assembled data set, preventing the identification of individual records in statistical databases. Lastly, Federated Learning offers a paradigm shift in data analysis, where machine learning models are trained at the edge, minimizing the centralization of sensitive data. The research underscores the significance of implementing these privacy-enhancing technologies to comply with strict data protection regulations, foster consumer trust, and enhance the security of the energy infrastructure. By providing a comprehensive overview of these methodologies and their practical implications for the energy sector, this study aims to contribute to the ongoing discourse on digital privacy, offering insights into how the energy industry can navigate the complexities of data privacy in the digital age.

Cali, Umit↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ultra-sensitive radon assay using an electrostatic chamber in a recirculating system

Rare event searches such as neutrinoless double beta decay and Weakly Interacting Massive Particle detection require ultra-low background detectors. Radon contamination is a significant challenge for these experiments, which employ highly sensitive radon assay techniques to identify and select low-emission materials. This work presents the development of ultra-sensitive electrostatic chamber (ESC) instruments designed to measure radon emanation in a recirculating gas loop, for future lower background experiments. Unlike traditional methods that separate emanation and detection steps, this system allows continuous radon transport and detection. This is made possible with a custom-built recirculation pump. A Python-based analysis framework, PyDAn, was developed to process and fit time-dependent radon decay data. Radon emanation rates are given for various materials measured with this instrument. A radon source of known activity provides an absolute calibration, enabling statistically-limited minimal detectable activities of 20 µBq. These devices are powerful tools for screening materials in the development of low-background particle physics experiments.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ultra-sensitive radon assay using an electrostatic chamber in a recirculating system

Rare event searches such as neutrinoless double beta decay and Weakly Interacting Massive Particle detection require ultra-low background detectors. Radon contamination is a significant challenge for these experiments, which employ highly sensitive radon assay techniques to identify and select low-emission materials. This work presents the development of ultra-sensitive electrostatic chamber (ESC) instruments designed to measure radon emanation in a recirculating gas loop, for future lower background experiments. Unlike traditional methods that separate emanation and detection steps, this system allows continuous radon transport and detection. This is made possible with a custom-built recirculation pump. A Python-based analysis framework, PyDAn, was developed to process and fit time-dependent radon decay data. Radon emanation rates are given for various materials measured with this instrument. A radon source of known activity provides an absolute calibration, enabling statistically-limited minimal detectable activities of 20 uBq. These devices are powerful tools for screening materials in the development of low-background particle physics experiments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards revealing intrinsic vortex-core states in Fe-based superconductors through statistical discovery

Abstract In type-II superconductors, electronic states within magnetic vortices hold crucial information about the paring mechanism and can reveal non-trivial topology. While scanning tunneling microscopy/spectroscopy (STM/S) is a powerful tool for imaging superconducting vortices, it is challenging to isolate the intrinsic electronic properties from extrinsic effects like subsurface defects and disorders. Here we combine STM/STS with basic machine learning to develop a method for screening out the vortices pinned by embedded disorder in iron-based superconductors. Through a principal component analysis of large STS data within vortices, we find that the vortex-core states in Ba(Fe 0.96 Ni 0.04 ) 2 As 2 start to split into two categories at certain magnetic field strengths, reflecting vortices with and without pinning by subsurface defects or disorders. Our machine-learning analysis provides an unbiased approach to reveal intrinsic vortex-core states in novel superconductors and shed light on ongoing puzzles in the possible emergence of a Majorana zero mode.

Guo, Yueming↗
DOE OSTI2025

Convective shells in the interior of Cepheid variable stars: Overshooting models based on hydrodynamic simulations

Context. Because Cepheid variable stars have long been used as a cosmic benchmark for scaling distances in our Galaxy and beyond, the accuracy of stellar evolution models for Cepheids have wide-reaching effects. However, our understanding of the dynamics in the interiors of these physically complex stars is limited. Aims. Our goal is to provide a detailed multi-dimensional picture of hydrodynamic convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of Cepheids. Methods. Using the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), we studied the structure of intermediate-mass stars that cross the instability strip. Then, we performed two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of six stars with the fully compressible Multidimensional Stellar Implicit Code (MUSIC). Our simulations did not model the radial pulsations but focused on the interior structure of this family of stars. We developed and applied a new statistical analysis to examine convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of these stellar simulations. Results. Based on a grid of MESA models, we demonstrated that a common structure for intermediate mass Cepheids includes an interior convective shell as well as a thin outer convective envelope. Using the extreme value theory approach to analyze our MUSIC simulation data, we found that overshooting above the convective shell fills the space between these convectively unstable layers. We developed a new statistical analysis that provides a clearer picture of how overshooting fills this layer; it also allowed us to formulate a detailed comparison between overshooting above and below the convective shell. Our analysis effectively decomposes the overshooting layer into two layers: a weak overshooting layer and a strong overshooting layer. Statistically, this is accomplished by decomposing the strongly non-Gaussian probability density function into a mixture of gamma distributions. Using our mixture model, we showed that the ratio of overshooting lengths above and below the convective shell depends directly on the radial extent of the convective shell as well as its depth in the star. We proposed a new form for the diffusion coefficient that addresses the need for overlapping overshooting layers between convective shells. We introduced the idea of a “super-mixing layer” where overshooting from both the convective shell and the convective envelope results in efficient mixing and could be viewed as merging the two adjacent convective zones.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards a data-driven model of hadronization using normalizing flows

We introduce a model of hadronization based on invertible neural networks that faithfully reproduces a simplified version of the Lund string model for meson hadronization. Additionally, we introduce a new training method for normalizing flows, termed MAGIC, that improves the agreement between simulated and experimental distributions of high-level (macroscopic) observables by adjusting single-emission (microscopic) dynamics. Our results constitute an important step toward realizing a machine-learning based model of hadronization that utilizes experimental data during training. Finally, we demonstrate how a Bayesian extension to this normalizing-flow architecture can be used to provide analysis of statistical and modeling uncertainties on the generated observable distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

CdTe Core: Final Technical Report (FTR)

CdTe is presently the cost-leading thin-film PV technology, directly competing with Si at scale, even when domestically manufactured. While an impressive technology, its efficiency remains much below the detailed balance limit with the largest cause due to its low photovoltage and fill factor. To realize gains, the carrier concentration, minority carrier lifetime, and interface recombination all need to be improved simultaneously over historic levels. Using a new defect chemistry (group V doping instead of copper) has been identified as a viable route using single crystal systems. This project focused on implementing this new defect chemistry in scalable, polycrystalline thin-film photovoltaic CdTe devices with tasks focusing improvements to the front interface, absorber, and rear interface as well as capability development & stakeholder engagement. The goal of the project was to establish a strategy using devices, test structures, detailed characterization, and modeling to quantify the sources of losses in state-of-the-art CdTe photovoltaic devices. Using this strategy and advanced synthesis, losses at the front interface, absorber, and rear interface were worked on in parallel. The final objective was to significantly improve the voltage deficit in CdTe devices to enable improvements in photovoltage and efficiency that can be implemented by industry in the near-term. Over the course of the project, the team developed new characterization techniques, analysis, and modeling which were then applied to state-of-the-art materials generated internally and collaboratively. In particular to enable rapid progress, NREL worked closely with First Solar where NREL grew complete devices as well as ones that interleaved process steps where First Solar had completed different steps such as absorber growth or absorber growth and activation using their baseline methods. Using detailed characterization and analysis including photoemission, photoluminescence, and scanning probe techniques enabled understanding of the loss pathways and area for improvements in our own and First Solar s materials. Ultimately, this contributed to the first series of new world record CdTe efficiencies since 2016, culminating in a 23.1% certified cell that was P-doped along with As-doped cells of similar performance. Internally, NREL improved the statistical variation in baseline As-doped devices and improved average photovoltage by over 100 mV. This was done through an improvement in absorber quality, changed front interface, and improved back contact. In addition to materially improving the fabrication processes at NREL, characterization, analysis, and modeling were developed and disseminated. NREL also played a pivotal role in community building over the course of this project working closely with the Cadmium Telluride Accelerator Consortium. NREL worked in a series of collaborations with academic and industry partners, leveraging knowledge and innovations from this project, as well as helped organize a series of workshops to ensure rapid progress in the field. Working closely with the academic community has led to a dissemination of knowledge; working with First Solar as increased US competitiveness First Solar expanded domestic production to ~10 GW and opened new facilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A practical approach to calculating magnetic Johnson noise for precision measurements

Magnetic Johnson noise is an important consideration for many applications involving precision magnetometry, and its significance will only increase in the future with improvements in measurement sensitivity. The fluctuation–dissipation theorem can be utilized to derive analytic expressions for magnetic Johnson noise in certain situations, but when used in conjunction with finite element analysis tools, the combined approach is particularly powerful as it provides a practical means to calculate the magnetic Johnson noise arising from conductors of arbitrary geometry and permeability. In this paper, we demonstrate this method to be one of the most comprehensive approaches presently available to calculate thermal magnetic noise. In particular, its applicability is shown to not be limited to cases where the noise is evaluated at a point in space but also can be expanded to include cases where the magnetic field detector has a more general shape, such as a finite-size loop, a gradiometer, or a detector that consists of a polarized atomic species trapped in a volume. Furthermore, some physics insights gained through studies made using this method are discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multitaper Magnitude‐Squared Coherence for Time Series With Missing Data: Understanding Oscillatory Processes Traced by Multiple Observables

To explore the hypothesis of a common source of variability in two time series, observers may estimate the magnitude-squared coherence (MSC), which is a frequency-domain view of the cross correlation. For time series that do not have uniform observing cadence, MSC can be estimated using Welch's overlapping segment averaging. However, multitaper has superior statistical properties to Welch's method in terms of the tradeoff between bias, variance, and bandwidth. The classical multitaper technique has recently been extended to accommodate time series with underlying uniform observing cadence from which some observations are missing. This situation is common for solar and geomagnetic data sets, which may have gaps due to breaks in satellite coverage, instrument downtime, or poor observing conditions. We demonstrate the scientific use of missing-data multitaper magnitude-squared coherence by detecting known solar mid-term oscillations in simultaneous, missing-data time series of solar Lyman α flux and geomagnetic Disturbance Storm Time index. Due to their superior statistical properties, we recommend that multitaper methods be used for all heliospheric time series with underlying uniform observing cadence.

Astro-statistics techniques (1886)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust error calibration for serial crystallography

Serial crystallography is an important technique with unique abilities to resolve enzymatic transition states, minimize radiation damage to sensitive metalloenzymes and perform de novo structure determination from micrometre-sized crystals. This technique requires the merging of data from thousands of crystals, making manual identification of errant crystals unfeasible. cctbx.xfel.merge uses filtering to remove problematic data. However, this process is imperfect, and data reduction must be robust to outliers. We add robustness to cctbx.xfel.merge at the step of uncertainty determination for reflection intensities. This step is a critical point for robustness because it is the first step where the data sets are considered as a whole, as opposed to individual lattices. Robustness is conferred by reformulating the error-calibration procedure to have fewer and less stringent statistical assumptions and incorporating the ability to down-weight low-quality lattices. We then apply this method to five macromolecular XFEL data sets and observe the improvements to each. The appropriateness of the intensity uncertainties is demonstrated through internal consistency. This is performed through theoretical CC 1/2 and I /σ relationships and by weighted second moments, which use Wilson's prior to connect intensity uncertainties with their expected distribution. This work presents new mathematical tools to analyze intensity statistics and demonstrates their effectiveness through the often underappreciated process of uncertainty analysis.

Mittan-Moreau, David W.↗