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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Micro-kinetic modeling of temporal analysis of products data using kinetics-informed neural networks
Kinetics-informed neural networks improve fit quality for multi-pulse and noisy temporal analysis of products datasets.
Generalized vs. fractional: a comparative analysis of Maxwell models applied to entangled polymer solutions
Fractional viscoelastic models provide an excellent description of rheological data for polymer systems with power-law behaviour. However, the physical interpretation of their model parameters, which carry fractional units of time, often remains elusive. We show that for poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO) solutions, the fractional Maxwell model (FMM) requires much fewer model parameters than the classical generalized Maxwell model for a good description of the data and that it can be applied consistently to solutions with varying degrees of viscoelasticity. Despite their fractional units, the parameters exhibit scaling laws similar to classical parameters as a function of polymer concentration.
In-depth analysis of solar models with high-metallicity abundances and updated opacity tables
Context. As a result of the high-quality constraints available for the Sun, we are able to carry out detailed combined analyses using neutrino, spectroscopic, and helioseismic observations. These studies lay the ground for future improvements of the key physical components of solar and stellar models because ingredients such as the equation of state, the radiative opacities, or the prescriptions for macroscopic transport processes of chemicals are then used to study other stars in the Universe. Aims. We study the existing degeneracies in solar models using the recent high-metallicity spectroscopic abundances by comparing them to helioseismic and neutrino data and discuss the effect on their properties of changes in the micro and macro physical ingredients. Methods. We carried out a detailed study of solar models computed with a high-metallicity composition from the literature based on averaged 3D models that were claimed to resolve the solar modelling problem. We compared these models to helioseismic and neutrino constraints. Results. The properties of the solar models are significantly affected by the use of the recent OPLIB opacity tables and the inclusion of macroscopic transport. The properties of the standard solar models computed using the OPAL opacities are similar to those for which the OP opacities were used. We show that a modification of the temperature gradient just below the base of the convective zone is required to remove the discrepancies in solar models, particularly in the presence of macroscopic mixing. This can be simulated by a localised increase in the opacity of a few percent. Conclusions. We conclude that the existing degeneracies and issues in solar modelling are not removed by using an increase in the solar metallicity, in contradiction to what has been suggested in the recent literature. Therefore, standard solar models cannot be used as an argument for a high-metallicity composition. While further work is required to improve solar models, we note that direct helioseismic inversions indicate a low metallicity in the convective envelope, in agreement with spectroscopic analyses based on full 3D models.
Scalability Analysis of Quantum Models for Stress and Emotion Detection
Stress and emotion detection from high-dimensional physiological signals is a challenging task, particularly when aiming for accurate classification across diverse behavioral states. Quantum machine learning (QML) is promising for modeling such high-dimensional data, but scalability is limited by qubit resources and the exponential cost of classical statevector simulation. This work studies the scalability of quantum support vector machines (QSVMs) for binary stress detection and three-class emotion recognition (Negative/Neutral/Positive) under varying qubit counts and angle-encoding strategies. We also present a comparison study with one-feature-per-qubit (1:1) and two-features-per-qubit (2:1) mappings. Experiments are executed on HPC infrastructure using NVIDIA CUDA-Q to evaluate performance, variance, and class-dependent separability at higher-qubit setups. Results show that larger Hilbert spaces can improve peak accuracy but may increase instability. At the same time, dense 2:1 encoding yields more consistent stress detection performance. For emotion recognition, scaling improves discrimination for classes like Negative and Positive more than Neutral. We find that effective QML scaling is task-dependent and benefits more from encoding design than simply increasing qubit count.
Computational Analysis and Optimized Modeling of Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Power Transformers
In this project we aim to better understand the effect of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) on power transformers. Expanding upon our previous work focused on producing a methodology for accuracy-enhanced computation of GIC signatures (i.e., time-domain current magnitude variation for the event duration) from a combination of physics-based and data-driven computational tools, we propose the use of these GIC signatures as inputs for a physically-detailed and optimized model of the power transformer to investigate how GIC determination and transformer modeling influence the evaluation of GIC effects on the transformer operation, as well as in its interaction with the power grid.
SIGNALS A Flexible Tool for Radiometry, Sensor Modeling, and Signal Analysis
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Sensitivity Analysis of Flyer Modeling in the FLEXO Extended-MHD Code
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Analysis of Two Models for the Angular Structure of the Outflows Producing the Swift/XRT “Larger-angle Emission” of Gamma-Ray Bursts
The quasi-instantaneous emission from a relativistic surface endowed with a Lorentz factor that decreases away from the outflow symmetry axis can naturally explain the three phases observed by Swift X-Ray Telescope (XRT) in gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and their afterglows (GRB tail, afterglow plateau, and postplateau) based only on the angular change of the relativistic Doppler boost across the outflow surface. We develop further the analytical formalism of the “larger-angle emission” model for the case of “n-exponential” outflows (where the Lorentz factor Γ dependence of the angular location θ is Γ ~ exp{-(θ/θ c ) n }), and compare its ability to account for the X-ray emission of XRT afterglows relative to that of “power-law” outflows (Γ ∼ θ −g ). Power-law outflows yield longer afterglow plateaus, followed by slower postplateau flux decays than n-exponential outflows, features which may be used in identifying which type of angular structure is at work in a given afterglow. Identifying the Γ(θ) angular structure that accommodates XRT light curves is slightly complicated by the fact that the afterglow X-ray light curve is also determined by how two characteristics of the comoving-frame emission spectrum (peak energy $E'_p$ and peak intensity $i'_p$) change with the angular location or, equivalently, with the Lorentz factor. Here, we assume power-law Γ dependences of those spectral characteristics and find that, unlike power-law outflows, n-exponential outflows cannot account for plateaus with a temporal dynamical range larger than 100 (2 dex in logarithmic space). To capture all the information contained in XRT afterglow measurements (0.3–10 keV unabsorbed flux and effective spectral slope), we calculate 0.3 and 10 keV light curves using a broken-power-law emission spectrum of peak energy and low- and high-energy slopes that are derived from the effective slope measured by XRT. This economical peak energy determination is found to be consistent with the results of more expensive spectral fits. The angular distributions of the Lorentz factor, comoving frame peak energy, and peak intensity (Γ(θ), $E'_p$(θ), $i'_p$(θ)) constrain the (yet-to-be determined) convolution of various features of the production of relativistic jets by solar-mass black holes and of their propagation through the progenitor/circumburst medium, while the $E'_p$(Γ) and $i'_p$(Γ) dependences may constrain the GRB dissipation mechanism and the GRB emission process.
Sensitivity Analysis of Numerical Modeling Input Parameters on Wind Turbine Loads in Deterministic Transient Load Cases
Aero-hydro-elastic-servo numerical models used to design and analyze wind turbines are based on thousands of variable input parameters that dictate the inflow, aerodynamic, structural, and control characteristics of the system as well as sea state, hydrodynamic, and mooring characteristics for fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind turbines. Each of these parameters has some level of uncertainty, which can significantly impact the predicted loads. Understanding the uncertainty in the inputs is critical to understanding the uncertainty in the outputs. This work demonstrates a screening technique to identify which parameters ultimate loads are most sensitive to so that more focus can be given to quantifying the possible range of those parameters. This technique has been demonstrated previously for different turbine and load case types and is extended here for a floating offshore wind turbine in design load cases with transient events both in the inflow and operations. Each load case features a deterministic gust, including variations in wind speed, direction, and shear. Load cases are considered with an operating turbine as well as with prescribed fault, startup, and shutdown procedures. The study found that key input parameters with a large impact on loads include the length of the gust, the magnitude of direction change and speed in the gust, the initial wind speed, and the shape of the gust profile.
Thermal Management System Modeling by Sensitivity Analysis Guided Symbolic Regression
Paper submission for review for ASME IMECE 2025 conference.
Sensitivity Analysis of CTF models Impacting Dryout and Post-CHF Modeling Accuracy
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Biofuel Infrastructure, Logistics, and Transportation (BILT) Model for Supply Chain Analysis: Documentation for BILT
The Biofuel Infrastructure, Logistics, and Transportation (BILT) model for supply chain analysis developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the US Department of Energy is an accounting and optimization model that tracks the entire biomass-to-end-use supply chain (e.g., biomass production, transportation, and processing) for potential feedstocks, pathways, and end uses. This report summarizes the development, function, and operation of the BILT model.
Retrofit Energy Analysis and Central Thermal modeling (REACT) v1.0
REACT is a website designed to simplify the analysis and decision-making process for retrofitting existing central plant heating and cooling systems with advanced heat pump technologies. The tool evaluates the technical and economic viability of replacing traditional boilers with various options including water-to-water or air-to-water heat pumps, which can provide efficient and lower-cost heating and cooling. It allows users to compare current central plant configurations with retrofit scenarios, assessing energy consumption, life-cycle costs, and environmental impact. Retrofitting traditional boiler and chiller systems with water-to-water or air-to-water heat pumps can significantly reduce energy consumption and lower lifecycle costs. The REACT provides: User-Friendly Tools: A user friendly web interface for quick, intuitive analysis accessible to non-experts. Advanced Modeling: A Python-powered engine for detailed parametric studies, optimization, and research applications. Comprehensive Analysis: Lifecycle cost evaluation, energy consumption modeling, and environmental impact assessment. Visual Insights: A variety of plots to visualize system performance and design trade-offs. The engine for the website (REACT) bases on several Python libraries, and the website will be hosted on an ETA server.
Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice
We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.
Hybrid Symbolic-Numerical Modeling and Parametric Stability Analysis of DC–AC Power Systems
Hybrid DC-AC power systems integrating diverse inverter-based resources (IBRs) and multi-terminal high-voltage direct current (MTDC) networks represent a promising architecture for future power grids, while introducing challenges for modeling, stability analysis, and control design. This paper develops a hybrid symbolic-numerical modeling framework and tool to characterize the parametric small-signal stability of DC-AC coupled power systems. The proposed approach constructs parametric state-space models to enable efficient representation of system dynamics under varying control parameters and network configurations, with target parameters retained as symbolic variables and the remainder treated numerically. The stability analysis framework covers eigenvalue, sensitivity, and stability boundary and region characterization. Enhanced linear matrix inequality (LMI) techniques are proposed to directly certify small-signal stability over regions of parameter space while also reducing the conservativeness and computational burden. The resulting tools and frameworks enable rapid parametric model construction across diverse grid conditions, thereby facilitating stability-informed control and operation in complex DC–AC power systems.
Yet Another Discriminant Analysis (YADA): A Probabilistic Model for Machine Learning Applications
This paper presents a probabilistic model for various machine learning (ML) applications. While deep learning (DL) has produced state-of-the-art results in many domains, DL models are complex and over-parameterized, which leads to high uncertainty about what the model has learned, as well as its decision process. Further, DL models are not probabilistic, making reasoning about their output challenging. In contrast, the proposed model, referred to as Yet Another Discriminate Analysis(YADA), is less complex than other methods, is based on a mathematically rigorous foundation, and can be utilized for a wide variety of ML tasks including classification, explainability, and uncertainty quantification. YADA is thus competitive in most cases with many state-of-the-art DL models. Ideally, a probabilistic model would represent the full joint probability distribution of its features, but doing so is often computationally expensive and intractable. Hence, many probabilistic models assume that the features are either normally distributed, mutually independent, or both, which can severely limit their performance. YADA is an intermediate model that (1) captures the marginal distributions of each variable and the pairwise correlations between variables and (2) explicitly maps features to the space of multivariate Gaussian variables. Numerous mathematical properties of the YADA model can be derived, thereby improving the theoretic underpinnings of ML. Validation of the model can be statistically verified on new or held-out data using native properties of YADA. However, there are some engineering and practical challenges that we enumerate to make YADA more useful.
Covariance-Free Bifidelity Control Variates Importance Sampling for Rare Event Reliability Analysis
Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world problems, particularly when failure is a rare event. To implement multifidelity modeling, estimators that efficiently combine information from multiple models/sources are necessary. In past works, the variance reduction techniques of control variates (CV) and importance sampling (IS) have been leveraged for this task. In this paper, we present the CVIS framework—a creative take on a coupled CV and IS estimator for bifidelity reliability analysis. The framework addresses some of the practical challenges of the CV method by using an estimator for the control variate mean and sidestepping the need to estimate the covariance between the original estimator and the control variate through a clever choice for the tuning constant. Furthermore, the task of selecting an efficient IS distribution is also considered, with a view towards maximally leveraging the bifidelity structure and maintaining expressivity. Additionally, a diagnostic is provided that indicates both the efficiency of the algorithm as well as the relative predictive quality of the models utilized. Finally, the behavior and performance of the framework is explored through analytical and numerical examples.