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The case for a wet, warm climate on early Mars

Arguments are presented in support of the idea that Mars possessed a dense CO2 atmosphere and a wet, warm climate early in its history. The plausibility of a CO2 greenhouse is tested by formulating a simple model of the CO2 geochemical cycle on early Mars. By scaling the rate of silicate weathering on Earth, researchers estimated a weathering time constant of the order of several times 10 to the 7th power years for early Mars. Thus, a dense atmosphere could have existed for a geologically significant time period (approx. 10 to the 9th power years) only if atmospheric CO2 was being continuously resupplied. The most likely mechanism by which this could have been accomplished is the thermal decomposition of carbonate rocks induced directly or indirectly by intense, global scale volcanism.

Pollack, J. B.↗

An Open, Snow-based Hydrologic System on Noachian Mars

Properties of Noachian valley networks on Mars suggest that the conditions under which they formed were marginal for liquid water formation. The networks are sparsely scattered, poorly dissected, and tend to be small; a majority occupy areas only a few hundred kilometers in extent. Models in which networks formed by mass wasting are contra-indicated by the discovery of channels within the valleys. Greenhouse hypotheses for the stability of liquid water have foundered on familiar problems: first, a very substantial CO2 atmosphere would be required to bring global average conditions to 273 K; the CO2 should still be present in extensive carbonate deposits that have not been detected. Explanations that call upon groundwater sapping are hampered by the need for a hydrologic system to recharge the groundwater system, which effectively reinstates the need for a heavy CO2 atmosphere. Based upon field experience and geomorphic similarities between drainage developed in the periglacial terrain in and around the Haughton impact structure, Devon Island, Nuunavuut, Canada, we have suggested that some of the channel networks may have formed either subglacially, or as ice marginal structures.

Zent, A. P.↗

Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over the Amazon Basin

As a part of the NASA's Amazon Boundary Layer Experiment 2A mission, the cycle of atmospheric CO2 over the Amazon Basin was examined using measured vertical profiles of CO2 concentrations in the canopy and aloft, and direct measurements of CO2 emissions from soils. The results provide a detailed picture of daily exchanges of air between the tropical forest (0-30) and the atmospheric boundary layer (30-2000 m). A comparison of atmospheric CO2 distributions over forests, wetlands, and rivers shows that the lower atmosphere over forests functions separately from that over rivers or wetlands during the night and to some extent during the day; the basic diurnal cycle of CO2 over wetlands is much weaker than over forests, and the cycle is almost absent over rivers. This result is consistent with expectations based on the biogeochemistry of organic carbon in these systems.

Wofsy, Steven C.↗

Carbon Dioxide Clouds at High Altitude in the Tropics and in an Early Dense Martian Atmosphere

We use a time dependent, microphysical cloud model to study the formation of carbon dioxide clouds in the Martian atmosphere. Laboratory studies by Glandor et al. show that high critical supersaturations are required for cloud particle nucleation and that surface kinetic growth is not limited. These conditions, which are similar to those for cirrus clouds on Earth, lead to the formation of carbon dioxide ice particles with radii greater than 500 micrometers and concentrations of less than 0.1 cm(exp -3) for typical atmospheric conditions. Within the current Martian atmosphere, CO2 cloud formation is possible at the poles during winter and at high altitudes in the tropics during periods of increased atmospheric dust loading. In both cases, temperature perturbations of several degrees below the CO2 saturation temperature are required to nucleate new cloud particles suggesting that dynamical processes are the most common initiators of carbon dioxide clouds rather than diabatic cooling. The microphysical cloud model, coupled to a two-stream radiative transfer model, is used to reexamine the impact of CO2 clouds on the surface temperature within a dense CO2 atmosphere. The formation of carbon dioxide clouds leads to a warmer surface than what would be expected for clear sky conditions. The amount of warming is sensitive to the presence of dust and water vapor in the atmosphere, both of which act to dampen cloud effects. The radiative warming associated with cloud formation, as well as latent heating, work to dissipate the clouds when present. Thus, clouds never last for periods much longer than several days, limiting their overall effectiveness for warming the surface. The time average cloud optical depth is approximately unity leading to a 5-10 K warming, depending on the surface pressure. However, the surface temperature does not rise about the freezing point of liquid water even for pressures as high as 5 bars, at a solar luminosity of 75% the current value.

Colaprete, Anthony↗

Possible effects of anthropogenically-increased CO2 on the dynamics of climate - Implications for ice age cycles

A dynamical model, developed to account for the observed major variations of global ice mass and atmospheric CO2 during the late Cenozoic, is used to provide a quantitative demonstration of the possibility that the anthropogenically-forced increase of atmospheric CO2, if maintained over a long period of time (perhaps by tectonic forcing), could displace the climatic system from an unstable regime of oscillating ice ages into a more stable regime representative of the pre-Pleistocene. This stable regime is characterized by orbitally-forced oscillations that are of much weaker amplitude than prevailed during the Pleistocene.

Saltzman, Barry↗

On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations

Abstract. Idealized experiments with coupled climate-carbon Earth system models (ESMs) provide a basis for understanding the response of the carbon cycle to external forcing and for quantifying climate-carbon feedbacks. Here, we analyze globally-averaged results from idealized esm-flat10 experiments and show that most models exhibit a quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon uptake on land and in the ocean during a period of constant fossil fuel emissions of 10 Pg C yr−1. We hypothesize that this relationship does not depend on emission pathways. Further, as a simplification, we quantify the relationship between cumulative ocean carbon uptake and changes in ocean heat content using a linear approximation. In this way, changes in oceanic heat content and atmospheric CO2 concentration become interdependent variables, reducing the coupled temperature-CO2 system to just one differential equation. The equation can be solved analytically or numerically for the atmospheric CO2 concentration as a function of fossil fuel emissions. This approach leads to a simplified description of global carbon and climate dynamics, which could be used for applications beyond existing analytical frameworks.

Brovkin, Victor↗

Enhanced Weathering Strategies for Stabilizing Climate and Averting Ocean Acidification

Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m(exp -2) yr (exp -1)) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

Taylor, Lyla L.↗

Enhanced Weathering Strategies for Stabilizing Climate and Averting Ocean Acidification - Supplementary Information

Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m(exp. -2) yr (exp -1)) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

Taylor, Lyla L.↗

Global Carbon Cycle and Climate Feedbacks in the NASA GISS ModelE2.1

We present results from the NASA GISS ModelE2.1‐G‐CC Earth System Model with coupled climate‐carbon cycle simulations that were submitted to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Coupled Climate‐Carbon Cycle MIP (C4MIP). Atmospheric CO2 concentration and carbon budgets for the land and ocean in the historical simulations were generally consistent with observations. Low simulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations during 1850‐1950 were due to excess uptake from prescribed land cover change, which erroneously replaced arid shrublands with higher biomass crops, and assumed high 2004 LAI values in vegetated lands throughout the historical simulation. At the end of the historical period, slightly higher simulated CO2 than observed resulted from the land being an insufficient net carbon sink, despite the net effect of CO2 fertilization and warming‐induced increases to leaf photosynthetic capacity. The global ocean carbon uptake agreed well with the observations with the largest discrepancies in the low latitudes. Future climate projection at 2091‐2100 agreed with CMIP5 models in the northward shift, of temperate deciduous forest climate and expansion across Eurasia along 60 °N latitude, and dramatic regional biome shifts from drying and warming in continental Europe. Carbon feedback parameters were largely similar to the CMIP5 model ensemble. For our model, the variation of land feedback parameters within the uncertainty arises from the fertilization feedback being less sensitive due to lack of increased vegetation growth, and the comparably more negative ocean carbon‐climate feedback is due to the large slowdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation.

Carbon cycle↗

Spring Hydrology Determines Summer Net Carbon Uptake in Northern Ecosystems

Increased photosynthetic activity and enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange of northern ecosystems have been observed from a variety of sources including satellite vegetation indices (such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) and atmospheric CO2 measurements. Most of these changes have been attributed to strong warming trends in the northern high latitudes (greater than or equal to 50N). Here we analyze the interannual variation of summer net carbon uptake derived from atmospheric CO2 measurements and satellite NDVI in relation to surface meteorology from regional observational records. We find that increases in spring precipitation and snow pack promote summer net carbon uptake of northern ecosystems independent of air temperature effects. However, satellite NDVI measurements still show an overall benefit of summer photosynthetic activity from regional warming and limited impact of spring precipitation. This discrepancy is attributed to a similar response of photosynthesis and respiration to warming and thus reduced sensitivity of net ecosystem carbon uptake to temperature. Further analysis of boreal tower eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements indicates that summer net carbon uptake is positively correlated with early growing-season surface soil moisture, which is also strongly affected by spring precipitation and snow pack based on analysis of satellite soil moisture retrievals. This is attributed to strong regulation of spring hydrology on soil respiration in relatively wet boreal and arctic ecosystems. These results document the important role of spring hydrology in determining summer net carbon uptake and contrast with prevailing assumptions of dominant cold temperature limitations to high-latitude ecosystems. Our results indicate potentially stronger coupling of boreal/arctic water and carbon cycles with continued regional warming trends.

Carbon Uptake↗

Spatial Variability in Column CO2 Inferred from High Resolution GEOS-5 Global Model Simulations: Implications for Remote Sensing and Inversions

Column CO2 observations from current and future remote sensing missions represent a major advancement in our understanding of the carbon cycle and are expected to help constrain source and sink distributions. However, data assimilation and inversion methods are challenged by the difference in scale of models and observations. OCO-2 footprints represent an area of several square kilometers while NASA s future ASCENDS lidar mission is likely to have an even smaller footprint. In contrast, the resolution of models used in global inversions are typically hundreds of kilometers wide and often cover areas that include combinations of land, ocean and coastal areas and areas of significant topographic, land cover, and population density variations. To improve understanding of scales of atmospheric CO2 variability and representativeness of satellite observations, we will present results from a global, 10-km simulation of meteorology and atmospheric CO2 distributions performed using NASA s GEOS-5 general circulation model. This resolution, typical of mesoscale atmospheric models, represents an order of magnitude increase in resolution over typical global simulations of atmospheric composition allowing new insight into small scale CO2 variations across a wide range of surface flux and meteorological conditions. The simulation includes high resolution flux datasets provided by NASA s Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project at half degree resolution that have been down-scaled to 10-km using remote sensing datasets. Probability distribution functions are calculated over larger areas more typical of global models (100-400 km) to characterize subgrid-scale variability in these models. Particular emphasis is placed on coastal regions and regions containing megacities and fires to evaluate the ability of coarse resolution models to represent these small scale features. Additionally, model output are sampled using averaging kernels characteristic of OCO-2 and ASCENDS measurement concepts to create realistic pseudo-datasets. Pseudo-data are averaged over coarse model grid cell areas to better understand the ability of measurements to characterize CO2 distributions and spatial gradients on both short (daily to weekly) and long (monthly to seasonal) time scales

Ott, L.↗

BOREAS TE-5 CO2 Concentration and Stable Isotope Composition

The BOREAS TE-5 team collected measurements in the NSA and SSA on gas exchange, gas composition, and tree growth. This data set contains measurements of the concentration and stable carbon (C-13/C-12 and oxygen (O-18/O-16) isotope ratios of atmospheric CO2 in air samples collected at different heights within forest canopies. The data were collected to determine the influence of photosynthesis and respiration by the forest ecosystems on the concentration and stable isotope ratio of atmospheric CO2 These measurements were collected at the SSA during each 1994 IFC at OJP, OBS, and OA sites. Measurements were also collected at the NSA during each 1994 IFC at the OJP, T6R5S TE UBS, and T2Q6A TE OA sites. The stable isotope ratios are expressed using standard delta notation and in units of per mil. The isotope ratios are expressed relative to the international standard, PDB, for both carbon and oxygen samples. The data are stored in tabular ASCII files. The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884), or from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Activity Archive Center (DAAC).

Hall, Forrest G.↗

Low Reynolds Number Droplet Combustion In CO2 Enriched Atmospheres In Microgravity

The effect of radiative feedback from the gas phase in micro-gravity combustion processes has been of increasing concern because of the implications in the selection and evaluation of appropriate fire suppressants. The use of CO2, an optically thick gas in the infrared region of the electromagnetic spectrum, has garnered widespread acceptance as an effective fire suppressant for most ground based applications. Since buoyant forces often dominate the flow field in 1-g environments the temperature field between the flame front and the fuel surface is not significantly affected by gas phase radiative absorption and re-emission as these hot gases are quickly swept downstream. However, in reduced gravity environments where buoyant-driven convective flows are negligible and where low-speed forced convective flows may be present at levels where gas phase radiation becomes important, then changes in environment that enhance gas phase radiative effects need to be better understood. This is particularly true in assessments of flammability limits and selection of appropriate fire suppressants for future space applications. In recognition of this, a ground-based investigation has been established that uses a droplet combustion configuration to systematically study the effects of enhanced gas phase radiation on droplet burn rates, flame structure, and radiative output from the flame zone.

Hicks, M. C.↗

Surface Ocean pCO2 Seasonality and Sea-Air CO2 Flux Estimates for the North American East Coast

Underway and in situ observations of surface ocean pCO2, combined with satellite data, were used to develop pCO2 regional algorithms to analyze the seasonal and interannual variability of surface ocean pCO2 and sea-air CO2 flux for five physically and biologically distinct regions of the eastern North American continental shelf: the South Atlantic Bight (SAB), the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB), the Gulf of Maine (GoM), Nantucket Shoals and Georges Bank (NS+GB), and the Scotian Shelf (SS). Temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon variability are the most influential factors driving the seasonality of pCO2. Estimates of the sea-air CO2 flux were derived from the available pCO2 data, as well as from the pCO2 reconstructed by the algorithm. Two different gas exchange parameterizations were used. The SS, GB+NS, MAB, and SAB regions are net sinks of atmospheric CO2 while the GoM is a weak source. The estimates vary depending on the use of surface ocean pCO2 from the data or algorithm, as well as with the use of the two different gas exchange parameterizations. Most of the regional estimates are in general agreement with previous studies when the range of uncertainty and interannual variability are taken into account. According to the algorithm, the average annual uptake of atmospheric CO2 by eastern North American continental shelf waters is found to be between 3.4 and 5.4 Tg C/yr (areal average of 0.7 to 1.0 mol CO2 /sq m/yr) over the period 2003-2010.

interannual variability↗

Advanced Lithium Ion Venus Explorer (ALIVE)

The COncurrent Multidisciplinary Preliminary Assessment of Space Systems (COMPASS) Team partnered with the Applied Research Laboratory to perform a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) Program study to evaluate chemical based power systems for keeping a Venus lander alive (power and cooling) and functional for a period of days. The mission class targeted was either a Discovery ($500M) or New Frontiers ($750M to $780M) class mission. Historic Soviet Venus landers have only lasted on the order of 2 hours in the extreme Venus environment:temperatures of 460 degrees Centigrade and pressures of 93 bar. Longer duration missions have been studied using plutonium powered systems to operate and cool landers for up to a year. However, the plutonium load is very large. This NIAC study sought to still provide power and cooling but without the plutonium. Batteries are far too heavy but a system which uses the atmosphere (primarily carbon dioxide) and on on-board fuel to power a power generation and cooling system was sought. The resuling design was the Advanced Long-Life Lander Investigating the Venus Environment (ALIVE) Spacecraft (S/C) which burns lithium (Li) with the CO2 atmosphere to heat a Duplex Stirling to power and cool the lander for a 5-day duration (until the Li is exhausted). While it does not last years a chemical powered system surviving days eliminates the cost associated with utilizing a flyby relay S/C and allows a continuous low data rate direct to earth (DTE) link in this instance from the Ovda Regio of Venus. The five-day collection time provided by the chemical power systems also enables science personnel on earth to interact and retarget science - something not possible with an approximately 2-hour spacecraft lifetime. It also allows for contingency operations directed by the ground (reduced risk). The science package was based on that envisioned by the Venus Intrepid Tessera Lander (VITaL) Decadal Survey Study. The Li Burner within the long duration power system creates approximately 14000 W of heat. This 1300 degree Centigrade heat using Li in the bottom "ballast" tank is melted to liquid by the Venus temperature, drawn into a furnace by a wick and burned with atmospheric CO2. The Li carbonate exhaust is liquid at 1300 degrees Centigrade and being denser than Li drains into the the Li tank and solidifies. Since the exhaust product is a dense liquid no "chimney" is required which conserves the heat for the stirling power convertor. The Duplex Stirling provides about 300 W of power and removes about 300 W of heat from the avionics and heat that leaks into the 1-bar-insulated payload pressure vessel kept at 25 degrees Centigrade. The Na K radiator is run to the top of the drag flap.The ALIVE vehicle is carried to Venus via an Atlas 411 launch vehicle (LV) with a C3 of 7 km2/s2. An Aeroshell, derived from the Genesis mission, enables a direct entry into the atmosphere of Venus (-10 degrees Centigrade, 40 g max) and 6 m/s for landing (44 g) using a drag ring. For surface science and communication, a 100 WRF (WebEx Recording Format), X-Band 0.6-meter pointable DTE (Direct-to-Earth) antenna provides 2 kbps (kilobits per second) to DSN (Deep-Space Network) 34-meter antenna clusters.Table 1.1 summarizes the top-level details of each subsystem that was incorporated into the design. Cost estimates of the ALIVE mission show it at approximately $760M which puts it into the New Frontiers class.The ALIVE landed duration is only limited by the amount of Li which can be carried by the lander. Further studies are needed to investigate how additional mass can be carried, perhaps by a larger launcher and larger aeroshell.

Exploration↗

Are there carbonate deposits in the Valles Marineris, Mars?

The precipitation of 30 mbar of Martian atmosphere CO2 as carbonates in lakes is suggested to be the source of thick sequences of layered deposits found in the Valles Marineris. Support is adduced for this scenario from processes occurring in the perennially frozen dry valley lakes of Antarctica, where the lake water is supersaturated with atmospheric gases. Atmospheric CO2 would have accumulated in such Martian lakes as temperatures fell, and the presence of an insulating ice cover would have allowed liquid water to exist.

Mckay, Christopher P.↗

Are there carbonate deposits in the Valles Marineris, Mars?

The precipitation of 30 mbar of Martian atmosphere CO2 as carbonates in lakes is suggested to be the source of thick sequences of layered deposits found in the Valles Marineris. Support is adduced for this scenario from processes occurring in the perennially frozen dry valley lakes of Antarctica, where the lake water is supersaturated with atmospheric gases. Atmospheric CO2 would have accumulated in such Martian lakes as temperature fell, and the presence of an insulating ice cover would have allowed liquid water to exist.

Nedell, Susan S.↗

A Model-based Interpretation of Low-frequency Changes in the Carbon Cycle during the Last 120,000 years and its Implications for the Reconstruction of Atmospheric (delta) 14-C

A main caveat in the interpretation of observed changes in atmospheric (Delta)C-l4 during the last 50,000 years is the unknown variability of the carbon cycle, which together with changes in the C-14 production rates determines the C-14 dynamics. A plausible scenario explaining glacial/interglacial dynamics seen in atmospheric CO2 and (delta)C-13 was proposed recently (Kohler et al., 2005a). A similar approach that expands its interpretation to the C-14 cycle is an important step toward a deeper understanding of (Delta)C-14 variability. This approach is based on an ocean/atmosphere/biosphere box model of the global carbon cycle (BICYCLE) to reproduce low-frequency changes in atmospheric CO2 as seen in Antarctic ice cores. The model is forced forward in time by various paleoclimatic records derived from ice and sediment cores. The simulation results of our proposed scenario match a compiled CO2 record from various ice cores during the last 120,000 years with high accuracy (r(sup 2) = 0.89). We analyze scenarios with different C-14 production rates, which are either constant or based on Be-10 measured in Greenland ice cores or the recent high-resolution geomagnetic field reconstruction GLOPIS-75 and compare them with the available (Delta)C-14 data covering the last 50,000 years. Our results suggest that during the last glacial cycle in general less than 110%0o f the increased atmospheric (Delta)C-14 is based on variations in the carbon cycle, while the largest part (5/6) of the variations has to be explained by other factors. Glacial atmospheric (Delta)C-14 larger than 700% cannot not be explained within our framework, neither through carbon cycle-based changes nor through variable C-14 production. Superimposed on these general trends might lie positive anomalies in atmospheric (Delta)C-14 of approx. 50% caused by millennial-scale variability of the northern deep water production during Heinrich events and Dansgaard/Oeschger climate fluctuations. According to our model, the dominant processes that increase glacial (Delta)C-14 are a reduced glacial ocean circulation (+ approx.40%0), a restricted glacial gas exchange between the atmosphere and the surface ocean through sea ice coverage (+ approx. 20%), and the enrichment of dissolved inorganic carbon with C-14 in the surface waters through isotopic fractionation during higher glacial marine export production caused by iron fertilization (+ approx.10%).

Koehler, Peter↗