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At least 199 records · Page 11

Report on local data recovery approaches suitable for weather and climate prediction (Deliverable 1.3) (V.1.0)

Numerical weather and climate prediction rates as one of the scientific applications whose accuracy improvements greatly depend on the growth of the available computing power. As the number of cores in top computing facilities pushes into the millions, increasing average frequency of hardware and software failures forces users to review their algorithms and systems in order to protect simulations from breakdown. This report surveys approaches for fault-tolerance in numerical algorithms and system resilience in parallel simulations from the perspective of numerical weather and climate prediction systems. A selection of existing strategies is analyzed, featuring interpolation-restart and compressed checkpointing for the numerics, in-memory checkpointing, user-level failure mitigation-based and backup-based methods for the systems. Numerical examples showcase the performance of the techniques in addressing faults, with particular emphasis on iterative solvers for linear systems, a staple of atmospheric fluid flow solvers. The potential impact of these strategies is discussed in relation to current development of numerical weather prediction algorithms and systems towards the exascale. Trade-offs between performance, efficiency and effectiveness of resiliency strategies are analyzed and some recommendations outlined for future developments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Develop a weather-aware climate model to understand and predict extremes and associated power outages and renewable energy shortages with uncertainty-aware and physics-informed machine learning

Focal Area(s): The focus area is predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components with a particular emphasis on extreme weather in Atmospheric Science and power outages and shortages in Energy Science. Science Challenge: Predicting weather extremes (e.g., heavy precipitation, strong wind, and large hailstones), and weather-related power system outages and shortages can mitigate economic losses, save lives, support renewables integration, and improve power system resiliency. However, currently, the poor reliability and large uncertainty associated with the weather extreme prediction in the current climate models make the problem intractable. The key challenges are: (1) physical factors like green-house gases (GHGs), aerosols, and land use and land cover (LULC) can significantly impact extreme storms, but the understanding of these impacts is limited, particularly globally; (2) the convective permitting resolutions needed to model severe convective storms and their impacts are computationally prohibitive with global climate models (GCMs); (3) interactions between weather extremes and power system outages are complex and subject to great uncertainty. Current outage prediction models are short lead (~ 3 days), which do not allow for long-time planning of energy production and distribution. Moreover, we have limited capacity to predict weather events leading to sustained shortages in a renewable-energy-dominated power system. These challenges drive motivation for mechanistic understanding and reliable and efficient predictive modeling of extremes and their impacts from the sub-seasonal to long term projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measuring the Effects of Wake Steering With Nacelle-Mounted Scanning Lidar

In large wind plants, wakes from upwind turbines affect downwind turbines by reducing wind speeds and increasing turbulence. Wake steering may mitigate this effect by deflecting the wakes of upwind turbines away from downwind units. Here, we characterize the impact of wakes from yawed turbines at a commercial-scale wind plant under varying atmospheric and turbine operating conditions. Six months of nacelle-based lidar measurements were collected as part of a field campaign in 2019-2020 in the northern US Great Plains to test the effectiveness of wake steering. We separate these lidar scans by atmospheric stability and turbine operating condition to summarize how yawed wind turbine wakes vary with these input parameters in the atmospheric boundary layer. We summarize the impact of wake steering on various wake characteristics including velocity deficit, wake width, and wake center as retrieved from these lidar data. Yawed wakes have significantly different centerline characteristics compared to unyawed wakes, with large regions of meander in the mid wake region. Yawed wakes are also deflected farther than unyawed wakes in less turbulent conditions with velocity deficits persisting further downstream in stable atmospheric conditions. Overall, yawed wind turbine wakes are larger and wider in lower wind speed environments, and yawed wakes are deflected farther in less turbulent conditions, suggesting that wake steering is most effective in stable atmospheric stratification.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A bioenergy-focused versus a reforestation-focused mitigation pathway yields disparate carbon storage and climate responses

Limiting global warming to 2 °C requires urgent action on land-based mitigation. This study evaluates the biogeochemical and biogeophysical implications of two alternative land-based mitigation scenarios that aim to achieve the same radiative forcing. One scenario is primarily driven by bioenergy expansion (SSP226Lu-BIOCROP), while the other involves re/afforestation (SSP126Lu-REFOREST). We find that overall, SSP126Lu-REFOREST is a more efficient strategy for removing CO2 from the atmosphere by 2100, resulting in a net carbon sink of 242 ~ 483 PgC with smaller uncertainties compared to SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, which exhibits a wider range of -78 ~ 621 PgC. However, SSP126Lu-REFOREST leads to a relatively warmer planetary climate than SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, and this relative warming can be intensified in certain re/afforested regions where local climates are not favorable for tree growth. Despite the cooling effect on a global scale, SSP226Lu-BIOCROP reshuffles regional warming hotspots, amplifying summer temperatures in vulnerable tropical regions such as Central Africa and Southeast Asia. Our findings highlight the need for strategic land use planning to identify suitable regions for re/afforestation and bioenergy expansion, thereby improving the likelihood of achieving the intended climate mitigation outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating crystallographic and computational approaches to carbon-capture materials for the mitigation of climate change

Here, this article presents an overview of the current state of the art in the structure determination of microporous carbon-capture materials, as discussed at the recent NIST workshop “Integrating Crystallographic and Computational Approaches to Carbon-Capture Materials for the Mitigation of Climate Change”. The continual rise in anthropogenic CO 2 concentration and its effect on climate change call for the implementation of carbon capture technologies to reduce the CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere. Porous solids, including metal–organic frameworks (MOFs), are feasible candidates for gas capture and storage applications. However, determining the structure of these materials represents a significant obstacle in their development into advanced sorbents. The existing difficulties can be overcome by integrating crystallographic methods and theoretical modeling. The workshop gathered experimentalists and theorists from academia, government, and industry to review this field and identify approaches, including collaborative opportunities, required to develop tools for rapid determination of the structures of porous solid sorbents and the effect of structure on the carbon capture performance. We highlight the findings of that workshop, especially in the need for reference materials, standardized procedures and reporting of sorbent activation and adsorption measurements, standardized reporting of theoretical calculations, and round-robin structure determination.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Empirical estimates of regional carbon budgets imply reduced global soil heterotrophic respiration

Resolving regional carbon budgets is critical for informing land-based mitigation policy. For nine regions covering nearly the whole globe, we collected inventory estimates of carbon-stock changes complemented by satellite estimates of biomass changes where inventory data are missing. The net land–atmospheric carbon exchange (NEE) was calculated by taking the sum of the carbon-stock change and lateral carbon fluxes from crop and wood trade, and riverine-carbon export to the ocean. Summing up NEE from all regions, we obtained a global ‘bottom-up’ NEE for net land anthropogenic CO2 uptake of –2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr -1 consistent with the independent top-down NEE from the global atmospheric carbon budget during 2000–2009. This estimate is so far the most comprehensive global bottom-up carbon budget accounting, which set up an important milestone for global carbon-cycle studies. By decomposing NEE into component fluxes, we found that global soil heterotrophic respiration amounts to a source of CO 2 of 39 PgC yr -1 with an interquartile of 33–46 PgC yr -1 —a much smaller portion of net primary productivity than previously reported.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Impact of Constrained Data Assimilation on the Forecasts of Three Convection Systems During the ARM MC3E Field Campaign

A constrained data assimilation (CDA) system based on the ensemble variational (EnVar) method and physical constraints of mass and water conservations is evaluated through three convective cases during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. Compared to the original data assimilation (ODA), the CDA is shown to perform better in the forecasted state variables and simulated precipitation. The CDA is also shown to greatly mitigate the loss of forecast skills in observation denial experiments when radar radial winds are withheld in the assimilation. Modifications to the algorithm and sensitivities of the CDA to the calculation of the time tendencies in the constraints are described.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance Verification of the EXtreme PREcision Spectrograph

The EXtreme PREcision Spectrograph (EXPRES) is a new Doppler spectrograph designed to reach a radial-velocity measurement precision sufficient to detect Earth-like exoplanets orbiting nearby, bright stars. We report on extensive laboratory testing and on-sky observations to quantitatively assess the instrumental radial-velocity measurement precision of EXPRES, with a focused discussion of individual terms in the instrument error budget. We find that EXPRES can reach a single-measurement instrument calibration precision better than 10 cm s{sup −1}, not including photon noise from stellar observations. We also report on the performance of the various environmental, mechanical, and optical subsystems of EXPRES, assessing any contributions to radial-velocity error. For atmospheric and telescope related effects, this includes the fast tip-tilt guiding system, atmospheric dispersion compensation, and the chromatic exposure meter. For instrument calibration, this includes the laser fRequency comb (LFC), flat-field light source, CCD detector, and effects in the optical fibers. Modal noise is mitigated to a negligible level via a chaotic fiber agitator, which is especially important for wavelength calibration with the LFC. Regarding detector effects, we empirically assess the impact on the radial-velocity precision due to pixel-position nonuniformities and charge transfer inefficiency (CTI). EXPRES has begun its science survey to discover exoplanets orbiting G-dwarf and K-dwarf stars, in addition to transit spectroscopy and measurements of the Rossiter–McLaughlin effect.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Improved constraints on hematite refractive index for estimating climatic effects of dust aerosols

Abstract Uncertainty in desert dust composition poses a big challenge to understanding Earth’s climate across different epochs. Of particular concern is hematite, an iron-oxide mineral dominating the solar absorption by dust particles, for which current estimates of absorption capacity vary by over two orders of magnitude. Here, we show that laboratory measurements of dust composition, absorption, and scattering provide valuable constraints on the absorption potential of hematite, substantially narrowing its range of plausible values. The success of this constraint is supported by results from an atmospheric transport model compared with station-based measurements. Additionally, we identify substantial bias in simulating hematite abundance in dust aerosols with current soil mineralogy descriptions, underscoring the necessity for improved data sources. Encouragingly, the next-generation imaging spectroscopy remote sensing data hold promise for capturing the spatial variability of hematite. These insights have implications for enhancing dust modeling, thus contributing to efforts in climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

CPAP Ventilators Needed for Rapid Response to COVID-19 by Modification of CPAP Equipment

Early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, potential ventilator shortages were a critical issue identified by national health care providers. Capacity modeling at the time suggested patient demand may exceed ventilator supply. Thus, the challenge became finding an urgent interim solution to meet health care needs. Our initial hypothesis was that CPAP technology could be modified to provide similar functionality to a ventilator, relieving demand and allowing physicians to decide which patients need high end machines, ultimately saving lives. In conjunction with medical experts and pulmonologists, we were able to identify three key thrusts associated with this research problem: (1) modification of CPAP technology to allow for 02 input that would be capable of providing ventilation; (2) development of an alarming function that would provide real-time audible alarms to alert medical personnel to critical conditions, which would be used inline with CPAP technology; and (3) a method of sterilizing expiratory air from such a system in order to protect medical personnel from biohazard, since CPAPs vent to the atmosphere. We were unable to realize results for thrust 1 (CPAP modification for 02); we identified potential safety issues associated with utilizing medical grade oxygen with a common CPAP device. In order to characterize and mitigate these issues, we would need to partner closely with a device manufacturer; such a partnership could not be achieved in the timeframe needed for this rapid response work. However, we determined that some medical grade BiPAP devices do not need this modification and that the significant progress on thrusts 2 and 3 would be sufficient to buy down risk of a massive ventilator shortage. Our team built a prototype alarm system that can be utilized with any assistive respiratory device to alert on all key conditions identified by medical personnel (high pressure, low pressure, apnea, loss of power, low battery). Finally, our team made significant progress in the rapid prototyping and demonstration of an inline UV air purifier device. The device is cost efficient and can be manufactured at scale with both commercially available and additively manufactured parts. Initial tests with SARS-CoV-2 analog bacteriophage MS2 show 99% efficacy at reducing bioburden. Following a successful demonstration of the prototype device with medical personnel, we were able to obtain follow-on (non-LDRD) funding to provide additional device characterization, validation, and production in order to respond to an immediate regional need.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Seasonal forecasting skill for the High Mountain Asia region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorologically relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks to months is an area of active research and development. NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1–3-month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981–2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2 m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to the similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from an anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system's ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fertilizer management for global ammonia emission reduction

Crop production is a large source of atmospheric ammonia (NH 3 ), which poses risks to air quality, human health and ecosystems. However, estimating global NH 3 emissions from croplands is subject to uncertainties because of data limitations, thereby limiting the accurate identification of mitigation options and efficacy. In this report we develop a machine learning model for generating crop-specific and spatially explicit NH 3 emission factors globally (5-arcmin resolution) based on a compiled dataset of field observations. We show that global NH 3 emissions from rice, wheat and maize fields in 2018 were 4.3 ± 1.0 Tg N yr -1 , lower than previous estimates that did not fully consider fertilizer management practices. Furthermore, spatially optimizing fertilizer management, as guided by the machine learning model, has the potential to reduce the NH3 emissions by about 38% (1.6 ± 0.4 Tg N yr -1 ) without altering total fertilizer nitrogen inputs. Specifically, we estimate potential NH3 emissions reductions of 47% (44–56%) for rice, 27% (24–28%) for maize and 26% (20–28%) for wheat cultivation, respectively. Under future climate change scenarios, we estimate that NH3 emissions could increase by 4.0 ± 2.7% under SSP1–2.6 and 5.5 ± 5.7% under SSP5–8.5 by 2030–2060. However, targeted fertilizer management has the potential to mitigate these increases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Overview of Potential Hazards in Electric Aircraft Charging Infrastructure

With increasing efforts in electrification of Advanced Air Mobility and electric aircraft, there is a growing need to install new infrastructure to support them. This report highlights potential hazards (non exhaustive) that the installation must be aware of and be prepared to mitigate with increased electrical equipment on site. The hazards can be due to natural causes as well as non natural causes. The report aims to provide starting guidelines for awareness of these hazards and to help plan for mitigation of the same.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Development of Methane Emissions Model to Assess Fuel Recovery Potential at Gas Well Sites Using On Site Compression

The U.S. natural gas production and consumption has increased 85.5% since 2005 primarily due to the unconventional production methods of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. Natural gas used as a fuel has a lower greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint than coal and petroleum due to lower Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions when combusted. However, the “greener” benefit to natural gas may be negated by leaks in production and transmission systems. Methane (CH4), the primary hydrocarbon in natural gas, has an estimated Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 28-36 over 100 years, meaning it can absorb 28-36 more energy than CO2 which has a GWP of 1.0. Natural gas well sites are prone to methane emissions, or leaks and irregular gas releases, vented to atmosphere throughout production and transmission. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has recently granted West Virginia University (WVU) funding under agreement DE-FOA-0002005, to “Advance technologies to mitigate methane emissions and increase the efficiency of the natural gas transportation infrastructure”. As part of this funding WVU was tasked with identifying and quantifying sources of methane emissions at unconventional well sites, processing this data, and developing a system to recapture these emissions. A 0-D Simulink model was developed, utilizing standardized methodologies, data from previously conducted studies, as well as collected data from well sites in the Marcellus shale play region. The model was developed to predict emission rates from various components at natural gas well sites as well as the potential to utilize these emissions as fuel for the natural gas powered compressor engines on-site. This model was utilized to run high, medium, and low cases for four identified emission sources, engine size, pneumatic controller count, liquid level production which dictates tank emissions, and compressor packing vent emissions. Due to discrepancies in transient tank emission data, a high and low emission factor for tanks was used, resulting in two sets of 81 executed cases, and 162 unique cases of total site emissions and potential for fuel consumption. Each of the cases were run over 86,400 seconds at a 1 Hz, representative of a full 24 hour day of operation. The fuel consumption offset an average of 557% of fuel consumption on an energy density basis across all 81 cases with the high tank emission factor with a maximum offset of 2334%. The fuel consumption offset was an average of 82.9% for all 81 cases with the low tank emission factor with a maximum offset of 337%. This study highlights flaws in the use of publicly available methane number calculations to determine natural gas’s suitability as an engine fuel as well as the lack of public data for transient liquid storage tank emissions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Optimizing the Operational Parameters of an Electrochemical Purification Cell for Corrosion Mitigation in CSP Plants During Operation: Preprint

To make concentrating solar power (CSP) cost-competitive, the next generation of CSP plants will increase efficiency by operating at a higher temperature, which will require a new thermal energy storage material. One option for the thermal energy storage material is a ternary chloride salt that is stable at the temperatures required, but reacts easily with the atmosphere to form MgOHCl, a corrosive impurity. If left unchecked, this impurity will corrode the containment alloys, potentially leading to dangerous spills. We are working to design an electrochemical purification cell to remove MgOHCl from the molten chloride salt during CSP plant operation. In this paper, we use predictive modeling to assess the rate at which purification must occur. Additionally, we analyze possible process flow pathways for the molten chloride salts. Ultimately, we determine that implementation of a single reactor through which all chloride salts flow is the most efficient design to reduce impurity concentration below 0.1 mol % impurity.

concentrating solar power↗

A cryogenic muon tagging system based on kinetic inductance detectors for superconducting quantum processors

Ionizing radiation has emerged as a potential limiting factor for superconducting quantum processors, inducing quasiparticle bursts and correlated errors that challenge fault-tolerant operation. Atmospheric muons are particularly problematic due to their high energy and penetration power, making passive shielding ineffective. Therefore, monitoring the real-time muon flux is crucial to guide the development of alternative error-correction or mitigation strategies. We present the design, simulation, and first operation of a cryogenic muon-tagging system based on kinetic inductance detectors (KIDs), developed as a stand-alone cryogenic particle-tagging module for superconducting quantum processors. The system consists of two KIDs arranged in a vertical stack and operated at ∼20 mK. Monte Carlo simulations based on Geant4 guided the prototype design and provided reference expectations for muon-tagging efficiency and accidental coincidences due to ambient γ-rays. We observed a muon-induced coincidence rate among the top and bottom detectors of (192 ± 9) $\times\,10^{-3}$ events s$^{−1}$, in excellent agreement with the Monte Carlo prediction. The prototype achieves a muon-tagging efficiency of about 90% with negligible dead time. These results demonstrate the feasibility of operating a muon-tagging system at millikelvin temperatures and represent a key step toward the integration of cryogenic veto systems with multi-qubit chips to mitigate muon-induced errors.

Mariani, Ambra [INFN, Rome] (ORCID:000000028184857↗

Harnessing Carbon: A Review of Current Technologies for Transform-ing Methane into Value-added Products

The concern over greenhouse gases, methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), is increasing rapidly. There have been strides to find solutions to this global issue but there is not a clear path to a successful end goal. The concentration of CH 4 and CO 2 in the atmosphere has increased significantly over the last 60 years, methane is a great source of concern due to its ability to trap a high amount of heat in the atmosphere. These greenhouse gases contribute to global warming which has caused changes in the environment, including the melting of ice caps, and altered weather patterns. This review investigates biotechnology that has promising potential to aid in the mitigation of the negative effects methane has on the environment by exploring microorganisms, specifically methanotrophs, for their ability to convert methane into secondary value-added products that can be used for a wide range of applications. Methane as a feedstock could provide financial benefits due to the vast amount of methane available from sources like landfills, wastewater treatment plants, and agricultural sites. Furthermore, this review will look at the prospects of bioreactor technology and the potential for more environmentally friendly plastics, such as polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA), to shy away from traditional petroleum-based plastics. The continuous advancement of bioreactor technology is crucial to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Methane Conversion and Byproduct Determination in a Hollow Scaffold Solid State Bioreactor

The concern over greenhouse gases, methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), is increasing rapidly. There have been strides to find solutions to this global issue but there is not a clear path to a successful end goal. The concentration of CH 4 and CO 2 in the atmosphere has increased significantly over the last 60 years, methane is a great source of concern due to its ability to trap a high amount of heat in the atmosphere. These greenhouse gases contribute to global warming which has caused changes in the environment, including the melting of ice caps, and altered weather patterns. Solutions for these pressing challenges have led to different avenues of methane mitigation one of which is the development of solid-state bioreactors. These reactors harness the power of biological species that have evolved to use methane as an energy source. These methanotrophs, Methylomicrobium buryatense (5GB1), have been known to produce acetate and formate as a byproduct of the methane consumption cycle. The development of Hollow Scaffold Solid State Bioreactors (HS-SSBR) utilizes these microorganisms by way of hydrogel immobilization and infiltration of 3D printed scaffolds. The scaffolds act as a substrate for methanotroph growth and methane interaction. Methane consumption was monitored by way of gas sensors which indicated a reduction in methane concentration during the first 4 hours of closed loop methane recirculation. The byproducts of formate and acetate were confirmed by way of 1 H-NMR which indicated the 5GB1 methanotrophs were producing these molecules as a result of methane consumption.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗