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At least 199 records · Page 11

Characterization of Errors in Satellite-Based HCHO/NO 2 Tropospheric Column Ratios With Respect to Chemistry, Column-to-PBL Translation, Spatial Representation, and Retrieval Uncertainties

The availability of formaldehyde (HCHO) (a proxy for volatile organic compound reactivity) and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) (a proxy for nitrogen oxides) tropospheric columns from ultraviolet–visible (UV–Vis) satellites has motivated many to use their ratios to gain some insights into the near-surface ozone sensitivity. Strong emphasis has been placed on the challenges that come with transforming what is being observed in the tropospheric column to what is actually in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and near the surface; however, little attention has been paid to other sources of error such as chemistry, spatial representation, and retrieval uncertainties. Here we leverage a wide spectrum of tools and data to quantify those errors carefully. Concerning the chemistry error, a well-characterized box model constrained by more than 500 h of aircraft data from NASA's air quality campaigns is used to simulate the ratio of the chemical loss of HO 2 + RO 2 (LRO x ) to the chemical loss of NO x (LNO x ). Subsequently, we challenge the predictive power of HCHO/NO 2 ratios (FNRs), which are commonly applied in current research, in detecting the underlying ozone regimes by comparing them to LRO x /LNO x . FNRs show a strongly linear (R 2 =0.94) relationship with LRO x /LNO x , but only on the logarithmic scale. Following the baseline (i.e., ln(LRO x /LNO x ) = −1.0 ± 0.2) with the model and mechanism (CB06, r2) used for segregating NO x -sensitive from VOC-sensitive regimes, we observe a broad range of FNR thresholds ranging from 1 to 4. The transitioning ratios strictly follow a Gaussian distribution with a mean and standard deviation of 1.8 and 0.4, respectively. This implies that the FNR has an inherent 20 % standard error (1σ) resulting from not accurately describing the RO x –HO x cycle. We calculate high ozone production rates (PO 3 ) dominated by large HCHO × NO 2 concentration levels, a new proxy for the abundance of ozone precursors. The relationship between PO 3 and HCHO × NO 2 becomes more pronounced when moving towards NO x -sensitive regions due to nonlinear chemistry; our results indicate that there is fruitful information in the HCHO × NO 2 metric that has not been utilized in ozone studies. The vast amount of vertical information on HCHO and NO 2 concentrations from the air quality campaigns enables us to parameterize the vertical shapes of FNRs using a second-order rational function permitting an analytical solution for an altitude adjustment factor to partition the tropospheric columns into the PBL region. We propose a mathematical solution to the spatial representation error based on modeling isotropic semivariograms. Based on summertime-averaged data, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) loses 12 % of its spatial information at its native resolution with respect to a high-resolution sensor like the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) (> 5.5 × 3.5 km 2 ). A pixel with a grid size of 216 km 2 fails at capturing ∼ 65 % of the spatial information in FNRs at a 50 km length scale comparable to the size of a large urban center (e.g., Los Angeles). We ultimately leverage a large suite of in situ and ground-based remote sensing measurements to draw the error distributions of daily TROPOMI and OMI tropospheric NO 2 and HCHO columns. At a 68 % confidence interval (1σ), errors pertaining to daily TROPOMI observations, either HCHO or tropospheric NO 2 columns, should be above 1.2–1.5 × 10 16 molec. cm −2 to attain a 20 %–30 % standard error in the ratio. This level of error is almost non-achievable with the OMI given its large error in HCHO. The satellite column retrieval error is the largest contributor to the total error (40 %–90 %) in the FNRs. Due to a stronger signal in cities, the total relative error (< 50 %) tends to be mild, whereas areas with low vegetation and anthropogenic sources (e.g., the Rocky Mountains) are markedly uncertain (> 100 %). Our study suggests that continuing development in the retrieval algorithm and sensor design and calibration is essential to be able to advance the application of FNRs beyond a qualitative metric.

Amir H. Souri↗

Improvements in Nonconservative Force Modelling for TOPEX/POSEIDON

It was recognized prior to the launch of TOPEX/POSEIDON, that the most important source of orbit error other than the gravity field, was due to nonconservative force modelling. Accordingly, an intensive effort was undertaken to study the nonconservative forces acting on the spacecraft using detailed finite element modelling (Antreasian, 1992; Antreasian and Rosborough, 1992). However, this detailed modelling was not suitable for orbit determination, and a simplified eight plate "box-wing" model was developed that took into account the aggregate effect of the various materials and associated thermal properties of each spacecraft surface. The a priori model was later tuned post launch with actual tracking data [Nerem et al., 1994; Marshall and Luthcke, 1994; Marshall et al., 1995]. More recently, Kubitschek (1997] developed a newer box-wing model for TOPEX/POSEIDON, which included updated material properties, accounted for a solar array deflection, and modelled solar array warping due to thermal effects. We have used this updated model as a basis to retune the macromodel for TOPEX/POSEIDON, and report on preliminary results using at least 36 cycles (one year) of SLR and DORIS data in 1993.

Lemoine, Frank G.↗

Formulation and evaluation of an analytical model for composite box-beams

A direct method for determining the effective elastic stiffnesses and deformation behavior of composite box-beam (BB) structures is developed analytically, validated, and demonstrated. The BB walls are modeled as orthotropic-ply laminated plates, so that the elastic properties vary both through the thickness and around the BB contour; deformation is described in terms of extension, bending, twisting, shearing, and torsion-related out-of-plane warping. Numerical results for several BB configurations are presented in tables and graphs and compared with experimental data and FEM computations (Stemple and Lee, 1989): good general agreement is obtained for cross-ply, antisymmetric, and symmetric layups, except for symmetric layups with ply orientation angles theta greater than 30 deg. Both out-of-plane warping and transverse shear coupling are found to have significant effects on BB elastic response.

Smith, Edward C.↗

Continental-scale river flow in climate models

The hydrologic cycle is a major part of the global climate system. There is an atmospheric flux of water from the ocean surface to the continents. The cycle is closed by return flow in rivers. In this paper a river routing model is developed to use with grid box climate models for the whole earth. The routing model needs an algorithm for the river mass flow and a river direction file, which has been compiled for 4 deg x 5 deg and 2 deg x 2.5 deg resolutions. River basins are defined by the direction files. The river flow leaving each grid box depends on river and lake mass, downstream distance, and an effective flow speed that depends on topography. As input the routing model uses monthly land source runoff from a 5-yr simulation of the NASA/GISS atmospheric climate model (Hansen et al.). The land source runoff from the 4 deg x 5 deg resolution model is quartered onto a 2 deg x 2.5 deg grid, and the effect of grid resolution is examined. Monthly flow at the mouth of the world's major rivers is compared with observations, and a global error function for river flow is used to evaluate the routing model and its sensitivity to physical parameters. Three basinwide parameters are introduced: the river length weighted by source runoff, the turnover rate, and the basinwide speed. Although the values of these parameters depend on the resolution at which the rivers are defined, the values should converge as the grid resolution becomes finer. When the routing scheme described here is coupled with a climate model's source runoff, it provides the basis for closing the hydrologic cycle in coupled atmosphere-ocean models by realistically allowing water to return to the ocean at the correct location and with the proper magnitude and timing.

Miller, James R.↗

POD Model Reconstruction for Gray-Box Fault Detection

Proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is the mathematical basis of a method of constructing low-order mathematical models for the "gray-box" fault-detection algorithm that is a component of a diagnostic system known as beacon-based exception analysis for multi-missions (BEAM). POD has been successfully applied in reducing computational complexity by generating simple models that can be used for control and simulation for complex systems such as fluid flows. In the present application to BEAM, POD brings the same benefits to automated diagnosis. BEAM is a method of real-time or offline, automated diagnosis of a complex dynamic system.The gray-box approach makes it possible to utilize incomplete or approximate knowledge of the dynamics of the system that one seeks to diagnose. In the gray-box approach, a deterministic model of the system is used to filter a time series of system sensor data to remove the deterministic components of the time series from further examination. What is left after the filtering operation is a time series of residual quantities that represent the unknown (or at least unmodeled) aspects of the behavior of the system. Stochastic modeling techniques are then applied to the residual time series. The procedure for detecting abnormal behavior of the system then becomes one of looking for statistical differences between the residual time series and the predictions of the stochastic model.

Park, Han↗

Comparison of equivalent plate and finite element analysis of a realistic aircraft structural configuration

This paper presents a comparison study to assess how well a realistic aircraft structure can be represented with an equivalent plate model. A wing box and full wing structure of a high-speed civil transport aircraft configuration are analyzed. Static and vibration results from the equivalent plate analysis are compared with results from a finite element model. The results from these comparisons show that, for the simpler wing box models, the static displacements and first vibration frequency agree to within 1.5 percent. The full wing models only agree to within 10 percent, for both models, the higher frequencies vary by as much as 26 percent. These differences are due to inadequate refinement of the equivalent plate model.

Kao, Pi-Jen↗

A New Higher-Order Composite Theory for Analysis and Design of High Speed Tilt-Rotor Blades

A higher-order theory is developed to model composite box beams with arbitrary wall thicknesses. The theory, based on a refined displacement field, represents a three-dimensional model which approximates the elasticity solution. Therefore, the cross-sectional properties are not reduced to one-dimensional beam parameters. Both inplane and out-of-plane warping are automatically included in the formulation. The model accurately captures the transverse shear stresses through the thickness of each wall while satisfying all stress-free boundary conditions. Several numerical results are presented to validate the present theory. The developed theory is then used to model the load carrying member of a tilt-rotor blade which has thick-walled sections. The composite structural analysis is coupled with an aerodynamic analysis to compute the aeroelastic stability of the blade. Finally, a multidisciplinary optimization procedure is developed to improve the aerodynamic, structural and aeroelastic performance of the tilt-rotor aircraft. The Kreisselmeier-Steinhauser function is used to formulate the multiobjective function problem and a hybrid approximate analysis is used to reduce the computational effort. The optimum results are compared with the baseline values and show significant improvements in the overall performance of the tilt-rotor blade.

McCarthy, Thomas Robert↗

Multidisciplinary Optimization of Tilt Rotor Blades Using Comprehensive Composite Modeling Technique

An optimization procedure is developed for addressing the design of composite tilt rotor blades. A comprehensive technique, based on a higher-order laminate theory, is developed for the analysis of the thick composite load-carrying sections, modeled as box beams, in the blade. The theory, which is based on a refined displacement field, is a three-dimensional model which approximates the elasticity solution so that the beam cross-sectional properties are not reduced to one-dimensional beam parameters. Both inplane and out-of-plane warping are included automatically in the formulation. The model can accurately capture the transverse shear stresses through the thickness of each wall while satisfying stress free boundary conditions on the inner and outer surfaces of the beam. The aerodynamic loads on the blade are calculated using the classical blade element momentum theory. Analytical expressions for the lift and drag are obtained based on the blade planform with corrections for the high lift capability of rotor blades. The aerodynamic analysis is coupled with the structural model to formulate the complete coupled equations of motion for aeroelastic analyses. Finally, a multidisciplinary optimization procedure is developed to improve the aerodynamic, structural and aeroelastic performance of the tilt rotor aircraft. The objective functions include the figure of merit in hover and the high speed cruise propulsive efficiency. Structural, aerodynamic and aeroelastic stability criteria are imposed as constraints on the problem. The Kreisselmeier-Steinhauser function is used to formulate the multiobjective function problem. The search direction is determined by the Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno algorithm. The optimum results are compared with the baseline values and show significant improvements in the overall performance of the tilt rotor blade.

Chattopadhyay, Aditi↗

The impact of global warming on river runoff

A global atmospheric model is used to calculate the annual river runoff for 33 of the world's major rivers for the present climate and for a doubled CO2 climate. The model has a horizontal resolution of 4 x 5 deg, but the runoff from each model grid box is quartered and added to the appropriate river drainage basin on a 2 x 2.5 deg resolution. The computed runoff depends on the model's precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage. For the doubled CO2 climate, the runoff increased for 25 of the 33 rivers, and in most cases the increases coincide with increased rainfall within the drainage basins. There were runoff increases in all rivers in high northern latitudes, with a maximum increase of 47 percent. At low latitudes there were both increases and decreases ranging from a 96 increase to a 43 percent decrease. The effect of the simplified model assumptions of land-atmosphere interactions on the results is discussed.

Miller, James R.↗

A numerical analysis of shipboard and coastal zone color scanner time series of new production within Gulf Stream cyclonic eddies in the South Atlantic Bight

Eddy-induced upwelling occurs along the western edge of the Gulf Stream between Cape Canaveral, Florida, and Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB). Coastal zone color scanner images of 1-km resolution spanning the period April 13-21, 1979, were processed to examine these eddy features in relation to concurrent shipboard and current/temperature measurements at moored arrays. A quasi-one-dimensional (z), time dependent biological model, using only nitrate as a nutrient source, has been combined with a three-dimensional physical model in an attempt to replicate the observed phytoplankton field at the northward edge of an eddy. The model is applicable only to the SAB south of the Charleston Bump, at approximately 31.5 deg N, since no feature analogous to the bump exists in the model bathymetry. The modeled chlorophyll, nitrate, and primary production fields of the euphotic zone are very similar to those obtained from the satellite and shipboard data at the leading edges of the observed eddies south of the Charleston Bump. The horizontal and vertical simulated fluxes of nitrate and chlorophyll show that only approximately 10% of the upwelled nitrate is utilized by the phytoplankton of the modeled grid box on the northern edge of the cyclone, while approximately 75% is lost horizontally, with the remainder still in the euphotic zone after the 10-day period of the model. Loss of chlorophyll due to sinking is very small in this strong upwelling region of the cyclone. The model is relatively insensitive to variations in the sinking parameterization and the external nitrate and chlorophyll fields but is very sensitive to a reduction of the maximum potential growth rate to half that measured. Given the success of this model in simulating the new production of the selcted upwelling region, other upwelling regions for which measurements or successful models of physical and biological quantities and rates exist could be modeled similarly.

Pribble, J. Raymond↗

On the nature of the cosmic ray positron spectrum

A calculation was made of the flux of secondary positrons above 100 MeV expected for various propagation models. The models investigated were the leaky box or homogeneous model, a disk halo diffusion model, a dynamical halo model, and the closed galaxy model. In each case the parameters of these models were adjusted for agreement with the observed secondary or primary ratios and Be 10 abundance. The positron flux predicted for these models was compared with the available data. The possibility of a primary positron component was considered.

Protheroe, R. J.↗

On the nature of the cosmic ray positron spectrum

A new calculation has been made of the flux of secondary positrons above 100 MeV expected for various propagation models. The models investigated are the leaky box or homogeneous model, a disk-halo diffusion model, a dynamical halo model, and the closed galaxy model. The parameters of these models have, in each case, been adjusted for agreement with the observed secondary/primary ratios and Be-10 abundance. The positron flux predicted for these models is compared with the available data. The possibility of a primary positron component is considered.

Protheroe, R. J.↗

A study of galactic cosmic ray propagation models based on the isotopic composition of the elements lithium, beryllium and boron

A good test for a cosmic ray propagation model is its ability to predict the abundances of the light secondary nuclei lithium, beryllium, and boron. By using measured isotopic abundances of lithium, beryllium, and boron, Garcia-Munoz et al. (1979) were able to place limits on three important parameters of a leaky box propagation model. The considered parameters include the source spectral parameter, the leakage mean free path, and the characteristic adiabatic energy loss due to solar modulation. The present investigation is concerned with a critical evaluation of the information which can be deduced about these parameters from isotopic composition alone, taking into account the effects of uncertainties in the spallation cross section data.

Hinshaw, G. F.↗

Modeling radiation forces acting on satellites for precision orbit determination

Models of the TOPEX/Poseidon spacecraft are developed by means of finite-element analyses for use in generating acceleration histories for various orbit orientations which account for nonconservative radiation forces. The acceleration profiles are developed with an analysis based on the use of the 'box-wing' model in which the satellite is modeled as a combination of flat plates. The models account for the effects of solar, earth-albedo, earth-IR, and spacecraft-thermal radiation. The finite-element analysis gives the total force and induced accelerations acting on the satellite. The plate types used in the analysis have parameters that can be adjusted to optimize model performance according to the micromodel analysis and tracking observations. Acceleration related to solar radiation pressure is modeled effectively, and the techniques are shown to be useful for the precise orbit determinations required for spacecraft such as the TOPEX/Poseidon.

Marshall, J. A.↗

Three-dimensional Model of Tissue and Heavy Ions Effects

A three-dimensional tissue model was incorporated into a new Monte Carlo algorithm that simulates passage of heavy ions in a tissue box . The tissue box was given as a realistic model of tissue based on confocal microscopy images. The action of heavy ions on the cellular matrix for 2- or 3-dimensional cases was simulated. Cells were modeled as a cell culture monolayer in one example, where the data were taken directly from microscopy (2-d cell matrix), and as a multi-layer obtained from confocal microscopy (3-d case). Image segmentation was used to identify cells with precise areas/volumes in an irradiated cell culture monolayer, and slices of tissue with many cell layers. The cells were then inserted into the model box of the simulated physical space pixel by pixel. In the case of modeled tissues (3-d), the tissue box had periodic boundary conditions imposed, which extrapolates the technique to macroscopic volumes of tissue. For the real tissue (3-d), specific spatial patterns for cell apoptosis and necrosis are expected. The cell patterns were modeled based on action cross sections for apoptosis and necrosis estimated from current experimental data. A spatial correlation function indicating a higher spatial concentration of damaged cells from heavy ions relative to the low-LET radiation cell damage pattern is presented. The spatial correlation effects among necrotic cells can help studying microlesions in organs, and probable effects of directionality of heavy ion radiation on epithelium and endothelium.

Ponomarev, Artem L.↗

Abundances and spectra for cosmic-ray nuclei from lithium to iron for 2 to 150 GeV per nucleon

Measurements of primary cosmic-ray composition and energy spectra made with a balloon-borne superconducting magnetic spectrometer are described. Results for both 6.7 g/sq cm equivalent vertical atmospheric depth and the top of the atmosphere are presented for the absolute and relative integral abundances, the differential energy spectra, and the spectral indices for cosmic-ray nuclei from Li to Fe and energies of 2 to 50 GeV/n. It is found that propagation effects can explain essentially all the elemental abundances, that the abundances of Li, Be, and B for rigidities below 10 GV/c are consistent with an energy-independent mean interstellar path length of 4.5 + or - 0.5 g/sq cm for the 'leaky box' propagation model, that the abundances of all elements above 10 GV/c are consistent with a path length that decreases as the inverse n-th power of rigidity, and that n equals 0.6 (+0.4, -0.3) for the simplest assumptions made in fitting the source spectra.

Orth, C. D.↗

The propagation of ultraheavy cosmic ray nuclei

The propagation of ultraheavy cosmic ray nuclei (Z greater than 30) has been studied using a model based on the leaky-box formalism. This model has been used to examine the possible composition of the source, the path length distribution, and the mean escape length of the confinement region. Various abundance ratios have been found that have a sensitive dependence on one or more of these factors. Comparison of the theoretical values of these ratios with published data suggests that the source composition is similar to that of solar system matter, but that in the Pt-Pb region, enrichment in material produced by the r-process cannot be ruled out. Data for the secondary-to-primary ratio (Ru-44 - Cd-48)/(Sn-50 - Ba-56) show the presence of significantly more secondaries than are predicted, even when a truncated path length distribution is used in the model.

Brewster, N. R.↗

Integrated analysis system for box truss antenna mesh performance

An integrated analysis system has been developed to more efficiently design and analyze the mesh reflective surface and the mesh tie system of the box truss antenna. Six integrated computer programs using nonlinear finite-element, surface topography and interpolation, and RF aperture integration techniques, analyze the effects of manufacturing errors, mesh pillowing, and operating environment on antenna performance. The level of rigor of analysis can be varied, providing the possibility of a lower cost preliminary study on various designs using a minimum number of reduced box section models. By including the random and systematic errors with the aperture integration of minimum rms reflector surface roughness, the RF Performance Solver determines the far-field pattern, including the beam efficiency, and thus the antenna performance of the mesh reflector antenna.

Bachtell, E. E.↗