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At least 199 records · Page 11

Modeling Power Plant Siting Opportunities and Constraints in the Eastern Interconnection

The electrical transmission grid is a critical part of the U.S. national infrastructure, and its modernization is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) priority. We describe the Energy Zones Mapping Tool (EZMT), a unique, powerful, and public web-based system with multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) models for more than 20 power plant technologies and many other capabilities. Through a case study on natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants in the Eastern Interconnection (EI), we provide an example of incorporating an EZMT MCDA model into a larger planning context, with projections of interconnection-level capacity expansion, thermoelectric power plant retirements, and water availability. Our results provide insights on candidate NGCC site distributions and the criteria influencing them. The case study provides both an efficient methodology for performing similar analyses and hundreds of candidate NGCC power plant sites that can be studied in more detail as potential project sites.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

How Today's Hydropower Impacts Tomorrow's Grid: Counterfactual Scenarios Showing Grid Impacts if Hydropower Goes Away

Amidst ongoing discussions about hydropower removals, retirements, and reduced availability due to drought and other environmental considerations, it is important to understand the long-term effects of reduced hydropower resources on the U.S. electric grid. This analysis uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS™) grid planning model to compare several representative scenarios of retiring hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) capacity over time and explore the overall implications on the U.S. grid from present day through 2050. Reduced hydropower capacity and generation is replaced by a mix of both fossil and non-fossil resources, including natural gas, wind, solar, and battery technologies. Additional natural gas usage leads to an increase in cumulative national electric sector carbon dioxide and criteria pollutant operating emissions of less than 1% in many scenarios but up to 4-5.3% in some cases. Total electric sector costs also increase by <1% in many scenarios but up to 3.6% in the most extreme scenarios where nearly all the hydropower and PSH fleet retires, equating to $\$$340 billion in undiscounted costs. National results indicate that absent additional interventions, retiring hydropower and PSH capacity could increase electric sector emissions and direct capital and operating costs. However, more focused analysis is required to evaluate specific asset-level, local, and regional implications, and a broader scope is necessary to weigh these electric sector impacts alongside economic, ecological, water management, and other cross-sectoral effects that could be either negative or positive.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Economic Evaluation of a Coupled Nuclear Power Plant and Hydrogen Production Facility: A Case Study

This study optimized the design sizes and operation of a power-to-hydrogen-to-power integrated energy system to allow a baseload power plant to operate flexibly in the energy market. In collaboration with a utility industry partner, the system, consisting of an electrolyzer, compressors, storage tank, and fuel cell, was optimized under conditions specific to the proposed project at the site of a nuclear power plant. The Design Integration and Synthesis Platform to Advance Tightly Coupled Hybrid Energy Systems (DISPATCHES) maximized net present value by optimizing sizing of components and dispatch decisions. Revenues included sale of electricity, capacity payments typical of the New York Independent System Operator, and the section 45V hydrogen production tax credit of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (the tax credit was assumed to be available to legacy plants in the absence of clear guidance at present). Under default assumptions which excluded many capital expenditures, the base case optimized solution had a net present value of $\$$1.4 million over a 30 year lifetime, with a 0.365 MW fuel cell operating nearly continuously and 85% of revenues supplied by the hydrogen production tax credit (which was counted as a revenue regardless of profit, thus assuming credit monetization or offset of taxes within the larger firm was possible in all years). Beyond the base case, a sensitivity study elucidated drivers of the economics as capacity payment rate and hydrogen production tax credit rate vary. Additional sensitivity studies also extended results to variation of other, previously fixed parameters, including the fuel cell capital cost, and to imposition of further constraints. Optimization was also repeated for the default assumptions but recognizing tax credits upon use of hydrogen rather than upon its production, producing no change in the optimal solution. Most notably, capacity payments above $\$$15/kW-month drove optimal fuel cells multiple times larger than those with the default estimated capacity payment of $\$$2.5/kW-month (approaching 11 vs. 0.365 MW), and these larger fuel cells operated rarely (capacity factors of ~0.03). Furthermore, when the hydrogen production tax credit was provided for only 10 years, under the specific assumptions of this study (e.g., neither site preparation costs nor electrolyzer capital cost counted), the optimal solution avoided economic loss by ceasing system operation after the 10th year. Viewed broadly, this study demonstrated the capabilities of DISPATCHES, which can be user-adapted to serve other industrial case studies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Distribution Network Capacity Market Design: Marginal Distribution Capacity Pricing Mechanism for Efficient Investment and Cost Allocation

As electricity markets begin to shift from reliance on large, centralized power plants and towards distributed energy resources (DERs), there is a growing acknowledgement that more efficient planning, operations, and oversight is needed in the distribution system. This paper addresses one step in that direction by proposing an auction mechanism that uses a detailed distribution system planning model that allocates permits to end-used customers who request capacity to install new devices at their location and network upgrade contracts to utilities or 3rd-party companies who offer to upgrade system components. The resulting plan maximizes market surplus, that is, maximizes the total benefit to consumers minus the cost of network upgrades. We apply a marginal pricing scheme to the auction’s results such that the cost of each permits or contracts is differentiated by time and location, based on the Lagrangian multipliers of binding network constraints. These prices are shown to be no greater than the bid price of any awarded contract and no less than the offered cost of any awarded upgrade contract. Furthermore, the nonlinearity of power flows in the planning model result in an additional surplus that would be collected by the entity that hosts the auction, which could then be refunded to market participants or used to cover overhead costs of running the market. We provide four example auction results in a simple three-node distribution feeder to demonstrate the properties of the design. Results suggest that larger or more realistic case studies could be a promising next step.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Generating Sequential PV Deployment Scenarios for High Renewable Distribution Grid Planning: Preprint

This paper introduces a novel approach for generating solar photovoltaic (PV) plant deployment scenarios for grid integration planning. The approach guarantees consistency among scenarios of the same deployment by ensuring that higher penetration scenarios contain PV units deployed in lower penetration scenarios. It also constrains the size and spatial distribution of the PV plants and considers three placement types. A case study on a real-world distribution system proves that the precepts of scenario consistency, deployment diversity, and placement are met. The study further investigates the impact of the resulting scenarios via a stochastic hosting capacity analysis. Results indicate that the ratio between PV and load sizes, referred to as the nodal PV penetration factor (NPPF), is a key driver of the grid integration impact. By reducing the NPPF from 5 to 2, the maximum hosting capacity increased by at least 112%. The study also reveals that scenarios under random placement can lead to higher hosting capacity values.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

Demand response event simulator and risk-aware bidding tool for industrial customers

Incentive Based Demand Response (IBDR) program participation delivers financial benefits to the consumers and resiliency benefits to the electricity grid. Effectively participating in these programs as an industrial consumer requires bidding strategies that balance financial risk with operational constraints. Existing bidding tools tend not to fully incorporate stochastic IBDR event modeling, program specific baseline and payment/penalty calculations, or demand reduction process control schemes that account for the cascading impacts of shutdown in complex facilities. Here, this work presents an IBDR event simulator and risk-aware bidding framework tool integrating three key components: a flexible, parameterized demand response event generator that rigorously accounts for program structures and stochasticity, a demand response operational simulation model that generates explicit control strategies for load reduction, and a Monte Carlo simulator to evaluate financial risk for varied capacity bids. A case study at a wastewater treatment plant participating in PG&E's Capacity Bidding Program demonstrates the framework's utility. In the peak capacity price month of August, optimal bidding by the wastewater treatment plant nets a mean IBDR benefit of $101,000 (67% of the August electricity bill) with 0.4% probability of a financial loss. This framework enables industrial operators to make informed bidding decisions, negotiate better program terms with demand response load aggregators, and analyze energy flexibility investments at their facilities. Ultimately, this work reduces participation barriers in IBDR programs and supports the broader goal of enhancing grid reliability and renewable energy integration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Long-Term Impacts of Constrained Transmission Deployment on the Cost-Reliability Tradeoff

Traditional Resource Adequacy (RA) frameworks in the U.S. undervalue the contributions of inter-regional transmission to resource adequacy during stress periods, focusing on the availability of nameplate capacity instead. However, availability of nameplate capacity does not always translate into electricity delivery, especially during tail events. Moreover, the rapid deployment of energy-limited resources and increasing electricity demand challenge existing resource adequacy frameworks and couple regional electricity demand and availability of supply via transmission. We propose a two-stage framework that goes beyond the existing capacity-centered approaches to reveal the RA contributions of transmission. In the first stage we introduce a multi-objective optimization framework to quantify the merits of transmission expansion via Pareto Frontiers under alternative futures of no transmission investment, primary energy resources availability and demand growth. The second stage focuses on tail events and leverages the results of the first stage to characterize the risk profile of regional consumers across the U.S. under the alternative energy futures. We find that no new transmission can lead to a more expensive and less reliable national grid across scenarios, however, the impact on regional RA can vary. The probabilistic analysis reveals that transmission investments can alleviate the tail risk of consumers, however, the availability of fuel resources does not always alleviate regional tail risks. Our findings inform policymakers and utilities on the prioritization of transmission investments to mitigate the risk of widespread outages, also for tail events, and ensure reliable and affordable electricity delivery to all.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Meta-Analysis of Advanced Nuclear Reactor Cost Estimations

Supporting Data can be downloaded at: https://gain.inl.gov/content/uploads/4/2024/06/INL-RPT-24-77048-R1.xlsx Nuclear energy is a critical cornerstone of the current United States clean energy supply and may play a larger role in the future in support of a transition to a net-zero economy. The current fleet of nuclear reactors predominantly consists of large light-water reactors (LWRs), while many of the reactor designs under consideration are smaller and/or different technologies. Because these new designs have not yet been built, there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with their cost. This complicates energy-planning efforts because cost projections are not always standardized, consistent, and centralized in an easily accessible location. To help support energy planning in the US, this report provides advanced nuclear cost ranges using a transparent methodology along with other relevant information that can be used to help support decision making and energy planning. The purpose of this work was to conduct a methodical process for cost evaluation using only public information that was vetted with the end-goal to provide reference cost projections for nuclear energy. To provide a solid basis for these values, the approach and assumptions are explicitly laid out throughout the report allowing any user of the data to challenge or reconsider them. Because future US nuclear-reactor costs are still unknown due to little recent observed data, the report opted to compile a comprehensive list of bottom-up estimates and evaluate averages/trends within the data to identify reference ranges. This was deemed preferable to opining on the robustness or validity of one cost estimation versus another. To that end, the work evaluated thousands of lines of cost subaccounts from several bottom-up cost estimates. A wide variety of different reactor types captured in the data are of various sizes and technologies. Some of these reactors will be representative of advanced reactors under development while others will not. Thus, the results here are dependent on the data that are available and the accuracy of the estimates that are used. Each bottom-up estimate was reviewed to determine whether it was complete. Incomplete data sets were corrected to ensure an adequate basis of cross-comparison. The report is not without limitations and should be interpreted as an initial step to develop cost ranges for nuclear technology. Ultimately, future work can build upon the methodology with refined cost estimates to reduce uncertainty. US-based overnight capital cost (OCC) estimates were compiled from extensive data sets into ranges for both large and small reactor sizes for 2030. To project the cost declines over time, learning rates were sampled from literature sources. No SMRs were previously built; hence, learning rates based on bottom-up approaches (e.g., by quantifying the impact stemming from fabrication of different components, modular work, site construction, commissioning) were prioritized. For larger reactors, actual learning rates from deployments were used to project future costs (adjusted to account for standardization or lack thereof between designs). Other costs included are fixed and variable operations and maintenance costs. The final variables were capacity factors and ramp rates to support energy planning.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

The impact of market design and clean energy incentives on strategic generation investments and resource adequacy in low-carbon electricity markets

Well-designed electricity markets play a crucial role in maintaining reliable electric power systems, which are critical in modern society. Here, this study examines the impact of different electricity market designs and clean energy incentive schemes on supporting renewable energy integration and achieving clean energy goals. To this end, we utilize a game-theoretical generation expansion planning model where generation companies make investment and retirement decisions to maximize their expected profit. The model is structured as an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (EPEC) and solved using a diagonalization approach combined with progressive hedging. We analyze three types of electricity market designs: an energy-only market, a capacity market, and a clean energy market, and consider a wide range of market parameters resulting in 14 total scenarios. Wind and solar capacity comprise the majority of new investments in all considered scenarios, but the resultant system planning reserve margin (PRM) can differ significantly depending on market parameters. We also find that profit-driven investments lead to lower PRMs than a traditional system cost minimization approach. These individual scenario results further demonstrate how different market designs and clean energy incentive schemes may influence investor decision-making and impact resource adequacy throughout the clean energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Distribution System Planning for Growth in Residential Electric Vehicle Adoption

Anticipated growth in Electric Vehicles (EV) adoption could stress distribution system circuits beyond their original design limits. Uncertainties related to when households will begin buying EVs in large numbers challenges existing distribution system planning approaches and complicates efforts to assess grid impacts. Anticipated location, timing, and demand for EV charging is critical information for distribution system planners as it guides investment strategies for infrastructure upgrades to ensure continued reliability. This research makes two significant contributions: an EV adoption model that uses socioeconomic data to forecast location and year-specific adoption patterns through a bottoms-up approach, and an EV hosting capacity assessment methodology that offers improvements to current utility planning and asset management practices for infrastructure investments. Both contributions are applied to a Southern California Edison feeder in 7 adoption years from 2025 to 2050, with the results indicating that they are likely valuable additions to distribution systems planning capabilities.

Sridhar, Siddharth↗

Modeling nuclear energy’s future role in decarbonized energy systems

Increased attention has been focused on the potential role of nuclear energy in future electricity markets and energy systems as stakeholders target rapid and deep decarbonization and reductions in fossil fuel use. This paper examines models of electric sector planning and broader energy systems optimization to understand the prospective roles of nuclear energy and other technologies. In this perspective, we survey modeling challenges in this environment, illustrate opportunities to propagate best practices, and highlight insights from the deep decarbonization literature on the range of visions for nuclear energy's role. Nuclear energy deployment is highest with combinations of stringent emissions policies, nuclear cost reductions, and constraints on the deployment of other technologies, which underscores model dimensions related to these areas. New modeling capabilities are needed to adequately address emerging issues, including representing characteristics and applications of nuclear energy in systems models, and to ensure the relevance of models for policy and planning as deeper decarbonization is explored.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Solar Industry Update: (H2 2020) [Slides]

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, to the solar office staff. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Accelerated Energy Storage Deployment in RELAC Countries

"Renewables in Latin America and the Caribbean" or RELAC is a regional initiative across Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) that was created at the end of 2019, within the framework of the United Nations Climate Action Summit, with the objective of reaching at least 70% of renewable energy installed capacity, and 80% of the region's total electricity generation from renewables by 2030. 16 countries are members (Barbados, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay), and others are in discussions to join. RELAC provides these countries with support in addressing technical and financial needs to increase renewable energy penetration, matchmaking with financial resources to support capacity building needs and implementation of RE expansion plans, and knowledge exchange via peer-learning, and best practices in renewable energy integration to the electrical grid.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Implementación acelerada del almacenamiento de energía en los países de RELAC [Accelerated Energy Storage Deployment in RELAC Countries]

"Renewables in Latin America and the Caribbean" or RELAC is a regional initiative across Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) that was created at the end of 2019, within the framework of the United Nations Climate Action Summit, with the objective of reaching at least 70% of renewable energy installed capacity, and 80% of the region's total electricity generation from renewables by 2030. 16 countries are members (Barbados, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay), and others are in discussions to join. RELAC provides these countries with support in addressing technical and financial needs to increase renewable energy penetration, matchmaking with financial resources to support capacity building needs and implementation of RE expansion plans, and knowledge exchange via peer-learning, and best practices in renewable energy integration to the electrical grid. This is the Spanish translation of NREL/TP-7A40-89643.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) Model Documentation: 2025

The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model is a capacity expansion and dispatch model that is primarily used for the contiguous U.S. electric power sector. The model relies on system-wide least cost optimization to estimate the type and location of future generation and transmission capacity. This document describes details of how the model is formulated, how it functions, and many of the key inputs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Deer Isle and Stonington Energy Reliability Opportunities

The towns of Deer Isle and Stonington, located on the island of Deer Isle in Maine, partnered with the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (ETIPP) to examine options to enhance energy resilience, reduce dependence on imported fuels, and mitigate high energy costs. With technical support from the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and regional partner the Island Institute, the project focused on evaluation of the local electricity distribution infrastructure, examination of ongoing activities to reduce the frequency of outages, review of the applicable policy and regulatory environment, and identification of potential on-site energy solutions. Key findings revealed the island's reliance on a single distribution line, and limited hosting capacity for additional distributed energy resources. Solar photovoltaics (PV) technology, with and without battery storage, was found to be the most viable technology given economic, technical, and social considerations. While also technically feasible, wind energy faces more difficult siting and less public acceptance compared to PV. Marine energy technologies were determined to be infeasible due to technology immaturity and lengthy permitting timelines. Modeling of potential building-scale PV plus storage systems resulted in successful grant applications for installations at two local facilities. Analysis of community scale energy generation and storage options resulted the local utility, Versant, submitting a grant application for a proposed community-scale battery storage system to increase grid resilience and hosting capacity. This initiative has strengthened the communities' energy planning capabilities and laid the groundwork for future clean energy development.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗