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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

MITgcm-AD v2: Open source tangent linear and adjoint modeling framework for the oceans and atmosphere enabled by the Automatic Differentiation tool Tapenade

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm) is widely used by the climate science community to simulate planetary atmosphere and ocean circulations. A defining feature of the MITgcm is that it has been developed to be compatible with an algorithmic differentiation (AD) tool, TAF, enabling the generation of tangent-linear and adjoint models. These provide gradient information which enables dynamics-based sensitivity and attribution studies, state and parameter estimation, and rigorous uncertainty quantification. Importantly, gradient information is essential for computing comprehensive sensitivities and performing efficient large-scale data assimilation, ensuring that observations collected from satellites and in-situ measuring instruments can be effectively used to optimize a large uncertain control space. As a result, the MITgcm forms the dynamical core of a key data assimilation product employed by the physical oceanography research community: Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) state estimate. Although MITgcm and ECCO are used extensively within the research community, the AD tool TAF is proprietary and hence inaccessible to a large proportion of these users. The new version 2 (MITgcm-AD v2) framework introduced here is based on the source-to-source AD tool Tapenade, which has recently been open-sourced. Another feature of Tapenade is that it stores required variables by default (instead of recomputing them) which simplifies the implementation of efficient, AD-compatible code. The framework has been integrated with the MITgcm model’s main branch and is now freely available.

Adjoints↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving vertical detail in simulated temperature and humidity data using machine learning

Atmospheric models used for weather forecasting and climate predictions discretise the atmosphere onto a vertical grid. There are however atmospheric phenomena that occur on scales smaller than the thickness of those model layers. The formation of low-level clouds due to temperature inversions is an example. This leads to atmospheric models underestimating, or even missing, these clouds and their radiative effects. Using radiosonde observations as training data, a machine learning model is used to improve the vertical detail of modelled profiles of temperature and specific humidity. In addition, a physics-informed machine learning model is developed and compared to the traditional approach; showing improvements in the cloud fraction profiles calculated from its predictions. The vertically enhanced profiles also improve the representation of layers of convective inhibition and anomalous refractivity gradients. This work facilitates targeted improvements to the representation of certain atmospheric processes without the burden of increased memory and computational cost from increasing vertical resolution throughout the whole model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid learning techniques for scientific data reduction with performance guarantees

The research initiatives supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Grant DE-SC0022265 are fundamentally aimed at pioneering advanced machine learning (ML) techniques for scientific data compression within high-performance computing (HPC) environments. This comprehensive body of work addresses the critical challenge posed by the exponential growth of data generated by scientific simulations in domains such as fusion energy, climate modeling, and computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A core objective is to develop compression algorithms that achieve substantial data reduction—often by orders of magnitude—while rigorously ensuring the fidelity of both the primary data (PD) and scientifically crucial derived quantities of interest (QoI). The methodologies deployed under this grant integrate sophisticated deep learning architectures, prominently featuring autoencoders, advanced generative models like conditional diffusion, and hybrid learning techniques. Key innovations include the development of Guaranteed Autoencoders (GAE) and the Guaranteed Conditional Diffusion with Tensor Correction (GCDTC) framework, which provide explicit, instance-level error bounds on reconstructed data. Furthermore, specialized strategies such as nonlinear constraint satisfaction are employed to preserve the integrity of QoI, a vital requirement for the trustworthiness of downstream scientific analyses. This research also focuses on the design and implementation of scalable, GPU-accelerated software pipelines that seamlessly integrate into existing HPC workflows, ensuring both computational efficiency and practical applicability. The CAESAR framework, for example, unifies foundation and generative models to create an adaptive and efficient compression solution for spatio-temporal scientific data. Collectively, these efforts represent a significant advancement in mitigating the scientific data deluge, enabling more effective data management, accelerated scientific discovery, and optimized utilization of HPC resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Final report- UFL - RAPIDS2: A SciDAC Institute for Computer Science, Data, and Artificial Intelligence

The research initiatives supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Grant DE-SC0022265 are fundamentally aimed at pioneering advanced machine learning (ML) techniques for scientific data compression within high-performance computing (HPC) environments. This comprehensive body of work addresses the critical challenge posed by the exponential growth of data generated by scientific simulations in domains such as fusion energy, climate modeling, and computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A core objective is to develop compression algorithms that achieve substantial data reduction—often by orders of magnitude—while rigorously ensuring the fidelity of both the primary data (PD) and scientifically crucial derived quantities of interest (QoI). The methodologies deployed under this grant integrate sophisticated deep learning architectures, prominently featuring autoencoders, advanced generative models like conditional diffusion, and hybrid learning techniques. Key innovations include the development of Guaranteed Autoencoders (GAE) and the Guaranteed Conditional Diffusion with Tensor Correction (GCDTC) framework, which provide explicit, instance-level error bounds on reconstructed data. Furthermore, specialized strategies such as nonlinear constraint satisfaction are employed to preserve the integrity of QoI, a vital requirement for the trustworthiness of downstream scientific analyses. This research also focuses on the design and implementation of scalable, GPU-accelerated software pipelines that seamlessly integrate into existing HPC workflows, ensuring both computational efficiency and practical applicability. The CAESAR framework, for example, unifies foundation and generative models to create an adaptive and efficient compression solution for spatio-temporal scientific data. Collectively, these efforts represent a significant advancement in mitigating the scientific data deluge, enabling more effective data management, accelerated scientific discovery, and optimized utilization of HPC resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Randomized Preconditioned Solvers for Strong Constraint 4D-Var Data Assimilation

The Strong Constraint 4D Variational (SC-4DVAR) data assimilation method is widely used in climate and weather applications. SC-4DVAR involves solving a minimization problem to compute the maximum a posteriori estimate, which we tackle using the Gauss-Newton method. The computation of the descent direction is expensive since it involves the solution of a large-scale and potentially ill-conditioned linear system, solved using the preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) method. Here, to address this cost, we efficiently construct scalable preconditioners using three different randomization techniques, which all rely on a certain low-rank structure involving the Gauss-Newton Hessian. The proposed techniques come with theoretical guarantees on the condition number, and at the same time, are amenable to parallelization. We also develop an adaptive approach to estimate the sketch size and choose between the reuse or recomputation of the preconditioner. We demonstrate the performance and effectiveness of our methodology on two representative model problems—the Burgers and barotropic vorticity equation—showing a drastic reduction in both the number of PCG iterations and the number of Gauss-Newton Hessian products after including the preconditioner construction cost.

Gauss-Newton↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate Nowcasting

The climate is changing so rapidly that climatologies based on historical statistics cannot reliably capture the current risk of extreme weather events hazardous to society. Decision relevant projections of weather extreme probability over the next 10–15 years are needed to enable adaptation and resilience in the face of this evolving risk. Current weather forecasts/predictions and long-term climate projections for decades into the future are inadequate for providing this information to stakeholders that need it, targeting forecast horizons either too short or too far into the future. We argue that a new approach is needed: climate nowcasting. Climate nowcasting would focus on user-inspired extreme metrics over the next 10–15 year time frame, targeting specific impacts and locations down to a local scale, by engaging with stakeholders to understand their needs and provide information in a format relevant for decision making. Importantly, climate nowcasting will not consist of a single approach or data set, involving rather data fusion from different sources of information: simulations, observations and data driven methods, likely through different weights depending on the metric of interest. Predictions must be accompanied by serious engagement with stakeholders facing climate risks, and clearly present uncertainties and limitations of any prediction. Such a vision is very different from how typical climate or weather forecasts are applied today.

Gettelman, Andrew↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using pollen in turbidites for vegetation reconstructions

Turbidites, deposited by sub-aqueous gravity flows, are common in sedimentary archives worldwide and present a unique challenge and opportunity when reconstructing past vegetation through pollen analysis. When sampling pollen from a sediment core for palaeovegetation records, it is common practice to target background sediments (i.e. pelagic sediment) and avoid sampling turbidites, as they are presumed to portray a misleading picture of past vegetation. This assumption stems from our limited understanding of pollen abundance and distribution through turbidites, meaning that palynologists overlook deposits that could potentially be used to reconstruct past vegetation and climate. We present pollen assemblage and sedimentological data from four recent (<150 years) deep marine turbidite deposits from the Hikurangi Subduction Margin, Aotearoa-New Zealand, with the aim of understanding the abundance and distribution of pollen in fine-grained turbidites. We find that pollen is diluted in the bases of turbidites, but despite this dilution, the proportions of different pollen taxa remain consistent through each turbidite. These results confirm that pollen can be sampled from turbidites for palaeovegetation reconstructions and that sampling the fine-grained upper parts of turbidites will provide the best pollen recovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Location Identifiers, Metadata, and Map for Field Measurements at the East-Taylor Watershed Community Observatory, Colorado, USA (Version 3.3)

This dataset contains identifiers, metadata, and a map of the locations where field measurements have been conducted at the East-Taylor Watershed Community Observatory located in the Upper Colorado River Basin, United States. This is version 3.3 of the dataset and replaces the prior version 3.2 (see below for details on changes between the versions). Dataset description: The East River-Taylor Watershed is the primary field site of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (WFSFA) and the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory. Researchers from several institutions generate highly diverse hydrological, biogeochemical, climate, vegetation, geological, remote sensing, and model data at the East-Taylor Watershed in collaboration with the WFSFA. Thus, the purpose of this dataset is to maintain an inventory of the field locations and instrumentation to provide information on the field activities in the East-Taylor Watershed and coordinate data collected across different locations, researchers, and institutions. The dataset contains (1) a README file with information on the various files, (2) three csv files describing the metadata collected for each surface point location, plot and region registered with the WFSFA, (3) csv files with metadata and contact information for each surface point location registered with the WFSFA, (4) a csv file with with metadata and contact information for plots, (5) a csv file with metadata for geographic regions and sub-regions within the watershed, (6) a compiled xlsx file with all the data and metadata which can be opened in Microsoft Excel, (7) a kml map of the locations plotted in the watershed which can be opened in Google Earth, (8) a jpg image of the kml map which can be viewed in any photo viewer, and (9) a zipped file with the registration templates used by the SFA team to collect location metadata. The zipped template file contains two csv files with the blank templates (point and plot), two csv files with instructions for filling out the location templates, and one compiled xlsx file with the instructions and blank templates together. Additionally, the templates in the xlsx include drop down validation for any controlled metadata fields. Persistent location identifiers (Location_ID) are determined by the WFSFA data management team and are used to track data and samples across locations. Dataset uses: This location metadata is used to update the Watershed SFA’s publicly accessible Field Information Portal (an interactive field sampling metadata exploration tool; https://wfsfa-data.lbl.gov/watershed/), the kml map file included in this dataset, and other data management tools internal to the Watershed SFA team. Version Information: The latest version of this dataset publication is version 3.3. This version contains 167 new point locations, 1 new plot, and 2 new geographic regions. Overall, there are a total of 1439 point locations, 75 plots, and 54 geographic regions. Additionally, the kml map of locations and image now includes two boundaries (Upper Ohio Creek (UO) and Carbon Creek (CA)) outside of the East River watershed (USGS HUC-10) and accompanying stream network that represents areas of focus. Refer to methods for further details on the version history. This dataset will be updated on a periodic basis with new measurement location information. Researchers interested in having their East-Taylor Watershed measurement locations added to this list should reach out to the WFSFA data management team at wfsfa-data@googlegroups.com. Acknowledgments: Please cite this dataset if using any of the location metadata in other publications or derived products. If using the location metadata for the 2018 NEON hyperspectral campaign, additionally cite Chadwick et al. (2020). doi:10.15485/1618130. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. Part of this work was performed at SLAC Accelerator Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-76SF00515.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗
DOE OSTI2024

wmpy-power: A Python package for process-based regional hydropower simulation

Hydropower is an important source of renewable energy in many parts of the world. The generation potential for a hydropower facility can vary greatly due to fluctuations in precipitation and snowmelt patterns impacting streamflow and reservoir storage. Human activities such as irrigation, manufacturing, and hydration can also influence water availability at nearby and downstream facilities. wmpy-power--the hydropower model described in this work--is process-based, leveraging explicit reservoir storage and release data to address impacts on hydropower from climate change and human adaptive behaviors to inform long-term planning and resource-adequacy considerations.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

High throughput screening of ultra-thin electrocaloric materials enabled by additive manufacturing

Current HVAC systems can constitute as much as half of a building’s total energy consumption, depending on its use. More specifically cooling, particularly in hotter climates or for energy intensive applications, like data centers, can comprise between 10-30% of the total energy use. These cooling systems are largely comprised of compressor-based direct expansion systems and chilled water systems that use refrigerants or water, respectively, to reject heat. . Electrocaloric (EC) cycles present an eco-friendly alternative to these conventional processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatio-temporal multivariate cluster evolution analysis for detecting and tracking climate impacts

Recent years have seen a growing concern about climate change and its impacts. While Earth System Models (ESMs) can be invaluable tools for studying the impacts of climate change, the complex coupling processes encoded in ESMs and the large amounts of data produced by these models, together with the high internal variability of the Earth system, can obscure important source-to-impact relationships. Here, this paper presents a novel and efficient unsupervised data-driven approach for detecting statistically-significant impacts and tracing spatio-temporal source-impact pathways in the climate through a unique combination of ideas from anomaly detection, clustering and Natural Language Processing (NLP). Using as an exemplar the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, we demonstrate that the proposed approach is capable of detecting known post-eruption impacts/events. We additionally describe a methodology for extracting meaningful sequences of post-eruption impacts/events by using NLP to efficiently mine frequent multivariate cluster evolutions, which can be used to confirm or discover the chain of physical processes between a climate source and its impact(s).

Anomaly detection↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ponderosa pine hydraulic stress predicts more extreme wildfire behavior under future conditions in Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

Background Live fuel moisture contributes to wildfire spread and reflects plant stress and physiological traits. The anticipated change in live fuel moisture under future conditions is likely non-linear, owing to physiological plant thresholds in water hydraulics. We constructed a mechanistic model of live fuel moisture’s response to water stress to understand the impact of future climate on live fuel moisture. We first gathered data on plant physiology and live fuel moisture for Pinus ponderosa at Bandelier National Monument, NM, USA, and modeled their relationship. We then parameterized a mechanistic plant hydrodynamics model (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate changes in plant stress and a statistical model to simulate the resulting impact on live fuel moisture. We then simulated FATES-HYDRO under future climate anomalies (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5: 2080–2100) to understand the change in plant stress and estimate its impact on live fuel moisture. Results We found that the number of days below crucial thresholds of live fuel moisture (100% and 79%) increased from contemporary levels (< 100%: 72 days, < 79%: 1.4 days) under SSP2-4.5 (< 100%: 185 days, < 79%: 10.2 day) and increased exponentially under SSP5-8.5 (< 100%: 215 days, < 79%: 65 days). We found that gross primary productivity decreased under both future climate scenarios (contemporary: 336 g C m −2 , SSP2-4.5: 203 g C m −2 , SSP5-8.5: 243 g C m −2 ); however, spring productivity increased under SSP5-8.5, potentially altering fuel loading. We additionally see a potentially lethal loss of conductivity in hydraulic P. ponderosa under SSP5-8.5. Conclusions The overall increase in plant water stress (as represented by loss of hydraulic conductivity and leaf water potential) and lower live fuel moisture appear to be driven by reduced precipitation during late summer monsoons typical of the region, extending the fire season later in the year. We predict increasing variability in the P. ponderosa wildfire regime under both climate projections driven by changing productivity, rising mortality, and an overall decrease in live fuel moisture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development and Preliminary Analysis of a U.S. Geothermal Heat Pump Installation Database

This paper seeks to addresses the significant gap in the literature regarding the installation and adoption of geothermal heat pump (GHP) systems in the United States. While the "2021 U.S. Geothermal Power Production and District Heating Market Report" published by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) focused on direct-use geothermal district heating systems, it did not include an analysis of GHP installations (Robins et al. 2021). To bridge this gap, NREL has compiled a novel database currently containing 70,470 records of GHP installations, primarily sourced from state well permits and small-scale studies. Our methodology emphasizes the collection, cleaning, and standardization of data, addressing challenges such as inconsistent reporting formats and privacy concerns. Despite limitations in data on capacity, costs, and performance, our preliminary geospatial analysis reveals insights into the distribution of GHP systems across urban and rural areas and climate zones. The paper highlights the importance of publicly accessible data for advancing GHP technology adoption with a discussion of existing data sources and their limitations, advocating for improved collaboration between NREL and industry stakeholders.

data collection↗
DOE OSTI2024

ESM data downscaling: a comparison of super-resolution deep learning models

Abstract Climate projections at fine spatial resolutions are required to conduct accurate risk assessment for critical infrastructure and design adaptation planning. Generating these projections using advanced Earth system models (ESM) requires significant computational resources. To address this issue, various statistical downscaling techniques have been introduced to generate fine-resolution data from coarse-resolution simulations. In this study, we evaluate and compare five deep learning-based downscaling techniques, namely, super-resolution convolutional neural networks, fast super-resolution convolutional neural network ESM, efficient sub-pixel convolutional neural network, enhanced deep residual network (EDRN), and super-resolution generative adversarial network (SRGAN). These techniques are applied to a dataset generated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), focusing on key surface variables such as surface temperature, shortwave heat flux, and longwave heat flux. Models are trained and validated using paired fine-resolution (0.25 $$^{\circ }$$ ∘ ) and coarse-resolution (1 $$^{\circ }$$ ∘ ) monthly data obtained from a 9-year simulation. Next, blind testing is performed using monthly data obtained from two different years outside of the training and validation set. To evaluate the efficiency of each technique, different statistical metrics are used, including mean squared error (MSE), peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR), structural similarity index measure (SSIM), and learned perceptual image patch similarity (LPIPS). The results show that EDRN outperforms other algorithms in terms of PSNR, SSIM, and MSE, but struggles to capture fine-scale features in the data. In contrast, SRGAN, a generative model that uses perceptual loss, excels in capturing fine details at boundaries and internal structures, resulting in lower LPIPS than other methods.

Pawar, Nikhil M. (ORCID:0000000211613289)↗
DOE OSTI2026

A machine learning pipeline for identifying infiltration managed aquifer recharge locations from satellite imagery in the San Joaquin Valley, California

This study focuses on an agricultural region in California’s Central Valley, USA, where Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is widely implemented to mitigate groundwater depletion under increasing water demand and climate variability. A deep learning and machine learning framework was developed to identify infiltration-MAR locations using satellite imagery and environmental data. The framework integrates surface water detection from Sentinel-2 imagery, geospatial delineation of water bodies, spatiotemporal tracking of water body dynamics, and supervised classification using meteorological, environmental, and topographic variables. The framework was applied to a 2379 km² study area southwest of Fresno, where 765 water bodies were detected, including 139 identified MAR sites based on publicly available datasets and expert knowledge. The classification model achieved an accuracy of 0.94 and an F1 score of 0.85. Feature importance analysis indicates that cropland, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and evaporation are among the most influential predictors for infiltration-MAR. Notably, the framework suggests that engineered water management in infiltration-MAR systems can disrupt or even reverse the expected positive correlation between surface water extent and precipitation. These findings provide physically interpretable insights into the characteristics of existing infiltration-MAR facilities and demonstrate the potential of the proposed framework as a reproducible, interpretable, and potentially transferable tool for data-driven infiltration-MAR identification and inventory development under growing climatic and hydrological uncertainty.

Classification↗
DOE OSTI2025

Granger causal inference for climate change attribution

Abstract Climate change detection and attribution (D&A) is concerned with determining the extent to which anthropogenic activities have influenced specific aspects of the global climate system. D&A fits within the broader field of causal inference, the collection of statistical methods that identify cause and effect relationships. There are a wide variety of methods for making attribution statements, each of which require different types of input data and focus on different types of weather and climate events and each of which are conditional to varying extents. Some methods are based on Pearl causality (direct experimental interference) while others leverage Granger (predictive) causality, and the causal framing provides important context for how the resulting attribution conclusion should be interpreted. However, while Granger-causal attribution analyses have become more common, there is no clear statement of their strengths and weaknesses relative to Pearl-causal attribution and no clear consensus on where and when Granger-causal perspectives are appropriate. In this prospective paper, we provide a formal definition for Granger-based approaches to trend and event attribution and a clear comparison with more traditional methods for assessing the human influence on extreme weather and climate events. Broadly speaking, Granger-causal attribution statements can be constructed quickly from observations and do not require computationally-intesive dynamical experiments. These analyses also enable rapid attribution, which is useful in the aftermath of a severe weather event, and provide multiple lines of evidence for anthropogenic climate change when paired with Pearl-causal attribution. Confidence in attribution statements is increased when different methodologies arrive at similar conclusions. Moving forward, we encourage the D&A community to embrace hybrid approaches to climate change attribution that leverage the strengths of both Granger and Pearl causality.

Risser, Mark D. (ORCID:0000000319561783)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mesoscale Cellular Convection Detection and Classification Using Convolutional Neural Networks: Insights From Long-Term Observations at ARM Eastern North Atlantic Site

Marine boundary layer clouds are crucial in Earth's climate system. They frequently manifest as closed or open cell mesoscale cellular convection (MCC). MCC clouds are challenging to represent accurately in current climate models, highlighting the need for detailed observational data sets and in-depth analyses. This study utilizes over 8 years of observations from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site at Graciosa Island, Azores, to investigate these clouds. We first apply a convolutional neural network with a U-Net architecture to classify open and closed cells, marking the first application of such an approach for automatically detecting MCC patterns from ground-based radar measurements. This method addresses some observational gaps in satellite data related to low temporal resolution, nighttime challenges, and limited vertical structure capture. The analysis of the MCC cases shows clear differences between closed and open MCCs: Closed MCC clouds are characterized by lower cloud tops and bases, shallower cloud geometrical depth, weaker horizontal wind speeds, stronger atmospheric stability, and a more homogeneous liquid water path than open MCCs. Finally, we demonstrate two potential applications of our radar-based MCC classifications: (a) facilitating the investigation of aerosol-cloud interactions and (b) exploring meteorological factors along with MCC's evolution by integrating satellite imagery and back-trajectory analysis. The identified MCC cases offer a valuable resource for the scientific community to study MCC processes further and improve climate model accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗