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NASA NTRS2015

An Integrated Physics-Based Risk Model for Assessing the Asteroid Threat

Although most asteroids and other near-Earth objects (NEOs) do not pose a threat to Earth’s inhabitants, impacts from objects that are just tens of meters in diameter can cause significant damage if they occur over a populated area. This paper forms the foundation of an effort at NASA Ames Research Center to quantify these risks and identify the greatest risk-driving parameters and uncertainties. An integrated risk model that couples dynamic probabilistic simulations of strike occurrences with physics-based models of NEO impact damage factors has been developed to generate casualty estimates for a range of NEO impact properties. Currently, the model focuses on the risk due to blast overpressure damage from airbursts and impacts on land. The model is first used to reproduce results from established sources, and then is extended to perform sensitivity studies that yield greater insights into risk driving parameters. Results show that meteor strength and entry angle play a role for small to mid-size NEOs, and that accounting for the specific target location significantly affects casualty estimates and dominates the risk. Future work will continue to refine and expand the models to better characterize key impact risk factors, include additional types of threats such as tsunamis and climate effects, and ultimately support assessments of potential asteroid mitigation strategies.

Asteroid Threat↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Thermostable Carbonic Anhydrases Using Structure-Guided Recombination for Use in CO2 Removal Systems on Spacecraft

Carbon capture and storage has been a research area of great interest in recent years as a method for mitigation of CO2 emissions, due to the effects of climate change. The development of technologies for the efficient capture of CO2 are also of great interest for human spaceflight applications. One of the most promising technologies in this area is CO2 scrubbing using liquid amines, unfortunately, liquid amines with low heats of desorption tend to have slow CO2 binding kinetics. One potential solution to this problem is to use the enzyme carbonic anhydrase (CA) to enhance the kinetics of CO2 binding to liquid amines, allowing the overall process to be more energy efficient. Interest in using carbonic anhydrase as a biocatalyst has led to a number of efforts to improve the thermostability and solvent tolerance of several distinct carbonic anhydrase enzymes. In the work described here, we screened through a diverse set of natural carbonic anhydrases to identify candidates for protein engineering aimed at increased stability and activity in various liquid amines. We then used SCHEMA structure-guided recombination to develop a set of chimeric carbonic anhydrases with high thermostability and activity. These chimeras were used as the starting points for further protein engineering work targeting activity in liquid amine systems. Our ultimate goal is to test the engineered enzymes in a liquid amine system for cabin air revitalization on ISS or other spacecraft.

Life Support, Carbon dioxide, Carbonic anhydrase, ↗

NASA NTRS2012

Qualification of a Null Lens Using Image-Based Phase Retrieval

In measuring the figure error of an aspheric optic using a null lens, the wavefront contribution from the null lens must be independently and accurately characterized in order to isolate the optical performance of the aspheric optic alone. Various techniques can be used to characterize such a null lens, including interferometry, profilometry and image-based methods. Only image-based methods, such as phase retrieval, can measure the null-lens wavefront in situ - in single-pass, and at the same conjugates and in the same alignment state in which the null lens will ultimately be used - with no additional optical components. Due to the intended purpose of a Dull lens (e.g., to null a large aspheric wavefront with a near-equal-but-opposite spherical wavefront), characterizing a null-lens wavefront presents several challenges to image-based phase retrieval: Large wavefront slopes and high-dynamic-range data decrease the capture range of phase-retrieval algorithms, increase the requirements on the fidelity of the forward model of the optical system, and make it difficult to extract diagnostic information (e.g., the system F/#) from the image data. In this paper, we present a study of these effects on phase-retrieval algorithms in the context of a null lens used in component development for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission. Approaches for mitigation are also discussed.

Bolcar, Matthew R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

Lau, William K. M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping Forest Carbon Stocks to Understand Carbon Implications of Treatment on Wildfire for the Calwood Fire, Boulder County Colorado

Recent, record-breaking wildfire activity in the western U.S. illustrates the need for fire mitigation, such as forest fuels reduction treatments. Forests serve as crucial carbon sinks that combat the increasing effects of climate change, but fuels reduction treatments may remove carbon from forested systems. As a result, forest managers need to find a balance between fire mitigation and carbon preservation. This project partnered with Boulder County Parks and Open Space (BCPOS) and the University of Colorado, Denver to investigate the 2020 Cal-Wood fire in Boulder County, Colorado. Using remote sensing data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Imagery, and LiDAR, we mapped post-fire forest carbon pools and compared these values with values derived from field measurements. The analysis suggested that fuels reduction treatments did not reduce carbon loss in the presence of wildfire enough to clearly distinguish post-fire carbon between treated and untreated areas. However, the final carbon maps provide BCPOS and researchers with an opportunity to explore carbon estimation models based on remote sensing data as well as a framework to evaluate fuels reduction treatment effectiveness and impact on forest carbon stocks for future wildfire events.

Sarah Hettema↗

NASA NTRS2022

Boulder County Disasters: Mapping Forest Carbon Stocks to Understand Carbon Implications of Treatment and Wildfire

In recent years, record-breaking wildfire activities in the western US illustrate the need for fire mitigation efforts, such as forest fuels reduction treatments. Forests serve as crucial carbon sinks that combat the increasing effects of climate change while fuels reduction treatments may remove carbon from forested systems. As a result, forest managers need to find a balance between fire mitigation and carbon preservation. This project partnered with Boulder County Parks and Open Space (BCPOS) and the University of Colorado, Denver to investigate the 2020 Cal-Wood fire in Boulder County, Colorado. Using remote sensing data from Landsat 8 OLI, SRTM, Sentinel-2 MSI, and LiDAR, we mapped post-fire forest carbon pools and compared these values with values derived from measurements from plots on the ground. Results indicate that the correlations are R2=0.76 for aboveground live carbon, R2=0.44 for standing carbon, and R2=0.43 for aboveground dead carbon (R2=0.43), and R2=0.35 for total carbon (R2=0.35). Additionally, 38.5% of total carbon was stored in dead carbon and 14.4% was stored in live carbon. We next compared the post-fire pools between treated and untreated areas. Our analysis suggests fuels reduction treatments did not reduce carbon loss in the presence of wildfire enough to clearly distinguish the post-fire carbon in the treated and untreated areas. However, our final carbon maps still provide BCPOS and researchers with an opportunity to explore carbon estimation models based on remotely sensed data as well as a framework to evaluate fuels reduction treatment effectiveness and impact on forest carbon stocks for future wildfire events.

Sarah Hettema↗

NASA NTRS2014

Climate Change Potential Impacts on the Built Environment and Possible Adaptation Strategies

The built environment consists of components that exist at a range of scales from small (e.g., houses, shopping malls) to large (e.g., transportation networks) to highly modified landscapes such as cities. Thus, the impacts of climate change on the built environment may have a multitude of effects on humans and the land. The impact of climate change may be exacerbated by the interaction of different events that singly may be minor, but together may have a synergistic set of impacts that are significant. Also, mechanisms may exist wherein the built environment, particularly in the form of cities, may affect weather and the climate on local and regional scales. Hence, a city may be able to cope with prolonged heat waves, but if this is combined with severe drought, the overall result could be significant or even catastrophic, as accelerating demand for energy to cooling taxes water supplies needed both for energy supply and municipal water needs. This presentation surveys potential climate change impacts on the built environment from the perspective of the National Climate Assessment, and explores adaptation measures that can be employed to mitigate these impacts.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Enhanced Weathering Strategies for Stabilizing Climate and Averting Ocean Acidification

Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m(exp -2) yr (exp -1)) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

Taylor, Lyla L.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Enhanced Weathering Strategies for Stabilizing Climate and Averting Ocean Acidification - Supplementary Information

Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m(exp. -2) yr (exp -1)) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

Taylor, Lyla L.↗

NASA NTRS2019

An Automatic Light Rain Detection Algorithm on NASA MPLNET Lidar Observations in the Frame of WMO GALION Project

The water cycle strongly influences life on Earth. In particular, the precipitation modifies the atmospheric column thermodynamics through the process of evaporation and serves as a proxy for latent heat modulation. For this reason, a correct precipitation parameterization (especially low-intensity precipitation) at global scale, bedsides improving our understanding of the hydrological cycle, it is crucial to reduce the associated uncertainty of the global climate models to correctly forecast future scenarios, i.e. to apply fast mitigation strategies. In this study we developed an algorithm to automatically detect precipitation from lidar measurements obtained by the National and Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) Micropulse lidar network (MPLNET) permanent observational site in Goddard. The algorithm, once full operational, will deliver in Near Real Time (latency 1.5h) a new rain mask product that will be publicly available on MPLNET website as part of the new Version 3 Level 1.5 data. The methodology, based on an image processing technique, can detect only light precipitation events (defined by intensity and duration) as the morphological filters used through the detection process are applied on the lidar volume depolarization ratio range corrected composite images, i.e. heavy rain events are unusable as the lidar signal is completely extinguished after few meters in the precipitation or no signal detected because of the water accumulated on the receiver optics. Results from the algorithm, besides filling a gap in precipitation and virga detection by radars, are of particular interest for the scientific community because will help to better understand long-term aerosol-cloud interactions and aerosol atmospheric removal (scavenging effect) by rain as multi-year database being available for several MPLNET permanent observational sites across the globe. Moreover, we developed the automatic algorithm at Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya (UPC) Barcelona, the unique permanent observation station member of MPLNET and the European Aerosol Lidar Network (EARLINET) In the future the algorithm can be then easily applied to any other lidar and/or ceilometer network infrastructure in the frame of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Aerosol Watch (GAW) aerosol lidar observation network (GALION)

Simone Lolli↗

NASA NTRS2021

Features and Characteristics of the New NASA MicroPuLse NETwork (MPLNET) Automatic Rain Detection Algorithm

S. Lolli↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Novel Observing Strategies (NOS) and Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) for Disaster Resilience

"Earth systems have now been observed continuously for more than 50 years, not only from space but also from airplanes, balloons and in-situ sensors. With the addition of commercial remote sensing providers, many more Internet-of-Things sensors and new NASA and international observatories being planned, these incredible amounts of data will soon be augmented by even larger amounts of diverse data and therefore will become more and more difficult to access, integrate, understand and utilize. At the same time, because of climate change and its impacts, in order to predict, manage, and mitigate the effects of extreme science events and disasters, the information produced by all of this data needs to be optimized, organized and analyzed in such a way that it can be utilized by traditional as well as many new non-traditional users. This calls for the development of observing systems that are agile, coordinated and responsive to events of interest, and for information systems to be dynamic, interactive and fast. With these objectives in mind, the Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program has been developing technologies that will allow for the development of Novel Observing Strategies (NOS) in a distributed, coordinated fashion (i.e., similar to an “Internet-of-Earth-Things”), as well as for the development of novel information systems or Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) that will build a digital replica of the past and current states of the Earth systems, will derive forecasts of future states under nominal assumptions and will also offer the capability to investigate many hypothetical evolution scenarios under varying impact assumptions. Both NOS and ESDT will be facilitated by the unprecedented advances of Artificial Intelligence technologies, especially Machine Learning (ML), for extracting relevant information from these large amounts of data, for fusing and assimilating diverse data together and for running complex models faster. Together NOS and ESDT will help build the capabilities needed to anticipate, predict and mitigate the effects of future disasters."

Earth Science Remote Sensing; Information Systems↗

NASA NTRS1991

Countermeasures for mitigating the effects of global environment changes

Environmental countermeasures for preventing the negative effects of global climate change and ozone depletion are discussed with special emphasis on the possibilities of space-based actions. Among the programs addressed are the Mission to Planet Earth, the Solar Power Satellite (and linkage to the Space Exploration Initiative), and proposed projects such as a lunar-based power generator that utilizes He-3 as a fusion fuel when combined with deuterium. The concept of regional working groups is proposed for initiating the programs for effective countermeasures.

Jenkins, Lyle M.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Asheville Urban Development II: Mapping Urban Heat to Support Cooling Initiatives and Climate Resilience Planning in the Greater Asheville Area

Asheville, North Carolina experiences the urban heat island effect, where temperatures in the city are higher than in surrounding rural areas. This effect intensifies with increased urbanization and less vegetative cover. Asheville’s urban heat island was exacerbated by population increases and tree cover decline, escalating the need for heat mitigation. We partnered with the City of Asheville’s Sustainability Department and Asheville GreenWorks whose actions prioritize sustainable city planning and equitable climate resilience. Using NASA Earth observations and ancillary datasets we spatially mapped urban heat, heat vulnerability, and cooling and adaptive capacity from 2019-2023. To map urban heat, we used Landsat 8 and 9 Operational Land Imager and Thermal Infrared Sensor for land surface temperature and albedo data and the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station for evapotranspiration data. We assessed heat vulnerability using the urban heat data andthe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Social Vulnerability Index. To evaluate cooling and adaptive capacity we used the InVEST Urban Cooling Model, integrating our heat vulnerability analysis with land use and cover data from Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Rada rand Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument. Our results revealed distinct spatial patterns of urban heat, heat vulnerability, and cooling and adaptive capacity in Asheville with downtown as the focal hotspot and an outward decreasing radial pattern. These findings highlight targeted need for interventions to reduce heat impacts, address environmental injustices, and enhance climate resilience. Our project provided research to local organizations that can be used for heat mitigation in the greater Asheville area.

Authors not in NED but are confirmed contractors. ↗

NASA NTRS2014

Climate Change and Vector Borne Diseases on NASA Langley Research Center

Increasing global temperature, weather patterns with above average storm intensities, and higher sea levels have been identified as phenomena associated with global climate change. As a causal system, climate change could contribute to vector borne diseases in humans. Vectors of concern originate from the vicinity of Langley Research Center include mosquitos and ticks that transmit disease that originate regionally, nationwide, or from outside the US. Recognizing changing conditions, vector borne diseases propagate under climate change conditions, and understanding the conditions in which they may exist or propagate, presents opportunities for monitoring their progress and mitigating their potential impacts through communication, continued monitoring, and adaptation. Personnel comprise a direct and fundamental support to NASA mission success, continuous and improved understanding of climatic conditions, and the resulting consequence of disease from these conditions, helps to reduce risk in terrestrial space technologies, ground operations, and space research. This research addresses conditions which are attributed to climatic conditions which promote environmental conditions conducive to the increase of disease vectors. This investigation includes evaluation of local mosquito population count and rainfall data for statistical correlation and identification of planning recommendations unique to LaRC, other NASA Centers to assess adaptation approaches, Center-level planning strategies.

Cole, Stuart K.↗

NASA NTRS2022

What Does Global Land Climate Look Like at 2°C Warming?

Constraining an increase in global mean temperature below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels is critical to limiting dangerous and cascading impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Understanding future climatic changes and their spatial heterogeneity at 2°C warming is thus important for policy makers to prepare actionable adaptation and mitigation plans by identifying where and to what extent lives and livelihoods will be impacted. This study uses the recently released NASA Earth eXchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) CMIP6 data to provide a broad overview of projected changes in six key climate variables and two climate impact indicators at a time when warming exceeds 2°C. Analysis of global mean temperature changes indicates the 2040s as the decade when most CMIP6 models reach 2°C warming with respect to a pre-industrial period (1850–1900). During the 2040s, we find that global mean temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation, and wind speed over land under the high emission scenario are projected to change by +2.8°C, +22.4 mm/year, −0.73%, −2.23 , +15.9 W/m 2 , and −0.04 m/s, respectively. Many of the future changes are expected to exacerbate climate impacts including heat stress and fire danger. Our analysis shows geographic patterns of policy-relevant climatic changes, as parts of the globe will experience significant climate impacts even if the goal to keep warming below 2°C goal is achieved. Our results highlight the urgent need for further studies focused on identifying key hotspots and advancing region-specific actionable adaptation and mitigation plans.

GDDP↗

NASA NTRS2021

Half of global methane emissions come from highly variable aquatic ecosystem sources

Atmospheric methane is a potent greenhouse gas that plays a major role in controlling the Earth’s climate. The causes of the renewed increase of methane concentration since 2007 are uncertain given the multiple sources and complex biogeochemistry. Here, we present a metadata analysis of methane fluxes from all major natural, impacted and human-made aquatic ecosystems. Our revised bottom-up global aquatic methane emissions combine diffusive, ebullitive and/or plant-mediated fluxes from 15 aquatic ecosystems. We emphasize the high variability of methane fluxes within and between aquatic ecosystems and a positively skewed distribution of empirical data, making global estimates sensitive to statistical assumptions and sampling design. We find aquatic ecosystems contribute (median) 41% or (mean) 53% of total global methane emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. We show that methane emissions increase from natural to impacted aquatic ecosystems and from coastal to freshwater ecosystems. We argue that aquatic emissions will probably increase due to urbanization, eutrophication and positive climate feedbacks and suggest changes in land-use management as potential mitigation strategies to reduce aquatic methane emissions.

aquatic ecosystem↗

NASA NTRS2006

Science Overview: The LTTG Technology Review Meeting March 2006 Summary Report

This report presents an overview of the latest scientific consensus understanding of the effect of aviation emissions on the atmosphere for both local air quality and climate change in order to provide a contextual framework for raising future questions to help assess the environmental benefits of technology goals. Although studies of the two issues share a common framework (of quantifying the emissions, the change in concentrations in the atmosphere, and the environmental impacts), the communities of practitioners are distinctly different. The scientific community will continue to provide guidelines on trade-off among different contributors to a specific environmental impact, such as global climate, or local air quality. Ultimately, monetization of the costs and benefits of mitigation actions is the proper tool for quantifying and analyzing trade-offs between the two issues. Scientific assessment of the impacts and their uncertainties are critical inputs to these analyses. Until environmental effects of aviation emerge as a policy driven issue, there is little incentive within the scientific community to focus on research efforts specific to trade-off studies between local and global impacts.

Bruning, Claus↗