Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “climate model testing”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Ensuring statistical reproducibility of ocean model simulations in the age of hybrid computing

Novel high performance computing systems that feature hybrid architectures require large scale code refactoring to unravel underlying exploitable parallelism. Such redesign can often be accompanied with machine-precision changes as the order of computation cannot always be maintained. For chaotic systems like climate models, these round-off level differences can grow rapidly. Systematic errors may also manifest initially as machine-precision differences. Isolating genuine round off level differences from such errors remains a challenge. Here, we apply two-sample equality of distribution tests to evaluate statistical reproducibility of the ocean model component of US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). A 2-year control simulation ensemble is compared to a modified ensemble as a test case - after a known non-bit-for-bit change in a model component is introduced - to evaluate the null hypothesis that the two ensembles are statistically indistinguishable. To quantify the false negative rates of these tests, we conduct a formal power analysis using a targeted suite of short simulation ensembles. The ensemble suite contains several perturbed ensembles, each with a progressively different climate than the baseline ensemble - obtained by perturbing the magnitude of a single model tuning parameter, the Gent and McWilliams κ, in a controlled manner. The null hypothesis is evaluated for each of perturbed ensembles using these tests. The power analysis informs on the detection limits of the tests for given ensemble size allowing model developers to evaluate the impact of an introduced non-bit-for-bit change to the model.

Mahajan, Salil↗
NASA NTRS2022

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). I. Dry Cases—The Fellowship of the GCMs

With the commissioning of powerful, new-generation telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the ground-based Extremely Large Telescopes, the first characterization of a high molecular weight atmosphere around a temperate rocky exoplanet is imminent. Atmospheric simulations and synthetic observables of target exoplanets are essential to prepare and interpret these observations. Here we report the results of the first part of the TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) project, which compares 3D numerical simulations performed with four state-of-the-art global climate models (ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D, Unified Model) for the potentially habitable target TRAPPIST-1e. In this first part, we present the results of dry atmospheric simulations. These simulations serve as a benchmark to test how radiative transfer, subgrid-scale mixing (dry turbulence and convection), and large-scale dynamics impact the climate of TRAPPIST-1e and consequently the transit spectroscopy signature as seen by JWST. To first order, the four models give results in good agreement. The intermodel spread in the global mean surface temperature amounts to 7 K (6 K) for the N2-dominated (CO2-dominated) atmosphere. The radiative fluxes are also remarkably similar (intermodel variations less than 5%), from the surface (1 bar) up to atmospheric pressures ∼5 mbar. Moderate differences between the models appear in the atmospheric circulation pattern (winds) and the (stratospheric) thermal structure. These differences arise between the models from (1) large-scale dynamics, because TRAPPIST-1e lies at the tipping point between two different circulation regimes (fast and Rhines rotators) in which the models can be alternatively trapped, and (2) parameterizations used in the upper atmosphere such as numerical damping.

Martin Turbet↗
NASA NTRS2003

Snow and Ice Products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

Snow and sea ice products, derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, flown on the Terra and Aqua satellites, are or will be available through the National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The algorithms that produce the products are automated, thus providing a consistent global data set that is suitable for climate studies. The suite of MODIS snow products begins with a 500-m resolution, 2330-km swath snow-cover map that is then projected onto a sinusoidal grid to produce daily and 8-day composite tile products. The sequence proceeds to daily and 8-day composite climate-modeling grid (CMG) products at 0.05 resolution. A daily snow albedo product will be available in early 2003 as a beta test product. The sequence of sea ice products begins with a swath product at 1-km resolution that provides sea ice extent and ice-surface temperature (IST). The sea ice swath products are then mapped onto the Lambert azimuthal equal area or EASE-Grid projection to create a daily and 8-day composite sea ice tile product, also at 1 -km resolution. Climate-Modeling Grid (CMG) sea ice products in the EASE-Grid projection at 4-km resolution are planned for early 2003.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Arctic Ocean Acoustic Travel Times Using an Earth System Model

Abstract The hydroacoustic environment of a rapidly warming Arctic Ocean will be impacted by interconnected changes in the physical environment and increased human activity. Previous acoustic calculations will need to be updated to reflect current and future conditions. Earth System Models are important tools for making projections of changes in a wide range of physical processes under future climates. We present a comparison of Arctic acoustic travel times based on output from the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model with measured travel times from the 2016–2017 Canada Basin Acoustic Propagation Experiment and with travel times predicted by empirical temperature and salinity observations. This comparison allows us to test the impact of changes in Arctic sound speed profiles on acoustic travel times and connects Arctic hydroacoustics with the changing Arctic environment as described by a climate model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

The Solar Constant, Climate, and Some Tests of the Storage Hypothesis

Activity related modulation of the solar constant can have practical consequences for climate only if storage is involved, as opposed to a detailed balance between sunspot blocking and facular reemission. Four empirical tests are considered that might distinguish between these opposing interpretations: monochromatic measurements of positive and negative flux; comparison of modelled and measured irradiance variations; the interpretation of secular trends in irradiance data; and the direct test of an anticipated signal in climate records of surface air temperature. The yet unanswered question of the role of faculae as possible reemitters of blocked radiation precludes a definitive answer, although other tests suggest their role to be minor, and that storage and an 11 year modulation is implicated. A crucial test is the behavior of the secular trend in irradiance in the declining years of the present activity cycle.

Eddy, J. A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Robust Decarbonization Pathways for the Western U.S. Electric Power System Under Deep Climate Uncertainty

Climate change threatens the resource adequacy of future power systems. Existing research and practice lack frameworks for identifying decarbonization pathways that are robust to climate-related uncertainty. We create such an analytical framework, then use it to assess the robustness of alternative pathways to achieving 60% emissions reductions from 2022 levels by 2040 for the Western U.S. power system. Our framework integrates power system planning and resource adequacy models with 100 climate realizations from a large climate ensemble. Climate realizations drive electricity demand; thermal plant availability; and wind, solar, and hydropower generation. Among five initial decarbonization pathways, all exhibit modest to significant resource adequacy failures under climate realizations in 2040, but certain pathways experience significantly less resource adequacy failures at little additional cost relative to other pathways. By identifying and planning for an extreme climate realization that drives the largest resource adequacy failures across our pathways, we produce a new decarbonization pathway that has no resource adequacy failures under any climate realizations. This new pathway is roughly 5% more expensive than other pathways due to greater capacity investment, and shifts investment from wind to solar and natural gas generators. Our analysis suggests modest increases in investment costs can add significant robustness against climate change in decarbonizing power systems. Our framework can help power system planners adapt to climate change by stress testing future plans to potential climate realizations, and offers a unique bridge between energy system and climate modeling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2016

Performance of the Goddard Multiscale Modeling Framework with Goddard Ice Microphysical Schemes

The multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which replaces traditional cloud parameterizations with cloud-resolving models (CRMs) within a host atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), has become a new approach for climate modeling. The embedded CRMs make it possible to apply CRM-based cloud microphysics directly within a GCM. However, most such schemes have never been tested in a global environment for long-term climate simulation. The benefits of using an MMF to evaluate rigorously and improve microphysics schemes are here demonstrated. Four one-moment microphysical schemes are implemented into the Goddard MMF and their results validated against three CloudSat/CALIPSO cloud ice products and other satellite data. The new four-class (cloud ice, snow, graupel, and frozen drops/hail) ice scheme produces a better overall spatial distribution of cloud ice amount, total cloud fractions, net radiation, and total cloud radiative forcing than earlier three-class ice schemes, with biases within the observational uncertainties. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to examine the impact of recently upgraded microphysical processes on global hydrometeor distributions. Five processes dominate the global distributions of cloud ice and snow amount in long-term simulations: (1) allowing for ice supersaturation in the saturation adjustment, (2) three additional correction terms in the depositional growth of cloud ice to snow, (3) accounting for cloud ice fall speeds, (4) limiting cloud ice particle size, and (5) new size-mapping schemes for snow and graupel. Despite the cloud microphysics improvements, systematic errors associated with subgrid processes, cyclic lateral boundaries in the embedded CRMs, and momentum transport remain and will require future improvement.

snow↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Process-based, Climate-Sensitive Model to Derive Methane Emissions from Natural Wetlands: Application to 5 Wetland Sites, Sensitivity to Model Parameters and Climate

Methane emissions from natural wetlands constitutes the largest methane source at present and depends highly on the climate. In order to investigate the response of methane emissions from natural wetlands to climate variations, a 1-dimensional process-based climate-sensitive model to derive methane emissions from natural wetlands is developed. In the model the processes leading to methane emission are simulated within a 1-dimensional soil column and the three different transport mechanisms diffusion, plant-mediated transport and ebullition are modeled explicitly. The model forcing consists of daily values of soil temperature, water table and Net Primary Productivity, and at permafrost sites the thaw depth is included. The methane model is tested using observational data obtained at 5 wetland sites located in North America, Europe and Central America, representing a large variety of environmental conditions. It can be shown that in most cases seasonal variations in methane emissions can be explained by the combined effect of changes in soil temperature and the position of the water table. Our results also show that a process-based approach is needed, because there is no simple relationship between these controlling factors and methane emissions that applies to a variety of wetland sites. The sensitivity of the model to the choice of key model parameters is tested and further sensitivity tests are performed to demonstrate how methane emissions from wetlands respond to climate variations.

Walter, Bernadette P.↗
NASA NTRS2023

AgMIP-Wheat Multi-Model Simulations on Climate Change Impact and Adaptation for Global Wheat

The climate change impact and adaptation simulations from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for wheat provide a unique dataset of multi-model ensemble simulations for 60 representative global locations covering all global wheat mega environments. The multi-model ensemble reported here has been thoroughly benchmarked against a large number of experimental data, including different locations, growing season temperatures, atmospheric CO2 concentration, heat stress scenarios, and their interactions. In this paper, we describe the main characteristics of this global simulation dataset. Detailed cultivar, crop management, and soil datasets were compiled for all locations to drive 32 wheat growth models. The dataset consists of 30-year simulated data including 25 output variables for nine climate scenarios, including Baseline (1980-2010) with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, Baseline +2oC or +4oC with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, a mid-century climate change scenario (RCP8.5, 571 ppm CO2), and 1.5°C (423 ppm CO2) and 2.0oC (487 ppm CO2) warming above the pre-industrial period (HAPPI). This global simulation dataset can be used as a benchmark from a well-tested multi-model ensemble in future analyses of global wheat. Also, resource use efficiency (e.g., for radiation, water, and nitrogen use) and uncertainty analyses under different climate scenarios can be explored at different scales. The DOI for the dataset is 10.5281/zenodo.4027033 (AgMIP-Wheat, 2020), and all the data are available on the data repository of Zenodo (http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4027033). Two scientific publications have been published based on some of these data here.

Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Mass Wood Walls on Building Energy Use, Peak Demand, and Thermal Comfort

Thermal mass moderates indoor temperatures, allowing the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system to operate more efficiently during peak hours. Cross-Laminated Timber (CLT) and other mass wood products provide thermal mass to the building envelope in a lighter and more environmentally friendly form than concrete. However, the influence of CLTs on heating and cooling energy, peak energy demand, and the indoor climate is not well-known. This project was formed to find the energy efficiency benefits of mass timber structures. The objectives were to (1) test the thermal performance of insulated mass wall structures in controlled laboratory conditions, (2) validate simulation models to expand performance to natural climatic conditions, (3) isolate the impact of the thermal properties of wood (thermal mass, thermal conductivity, moisture storage) on heating and cooling energy use and peak energy demand, and to optimize the performance. Currently, the designs used for CLT buildings have focused on structural and fire issues, and they do not consider the thermal mass benefits. Therefore, the thermal performance is not necessarily optimized.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2010

Contributions to Future Stratospheric Climate Change: An Idealized Chemistry-Climate Model Sensitivity Study

Within the framework of an idealized model sensitivity study, three of the main contributors to future stratospheric climate change are evaluated: increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, ozone recovery, and changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). These three contributors are explored in combination and separately, to test the interactions between ozone and climate; the linearity of their contributions to stratospheric climate change is also assessed. In a simplified chemistry-climate model, stratospheric global mean temperature is most sensitive to CO2 doubling, followed by ozone depletion, then by increased SSTs. At polar latitudes, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratosphere is more sensitive to changes in CO2, SSTs and O3 than is the Southern Hemisphere (SH); the opposing responses to ozone depletion under low or high background CO2 concentrations, as seen with present-day SSTs, are much weaker and are not statistically significant under enhanced SSTs. Consistent with previous studies, the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is found to increase in an idealized future climate; SSTs contribute most to this increase in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) region, while CO2 and ozone changes contribute most in the stratosphere and mesosphere.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Modeling Sea Ice Albedo and Transmittance Measurements With A Fully-Coupled Radiative Transfer Model

A rigorous treatment of the sea ice medium has been incorporated in the advanced Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Radiative Transfer (COART) model. The inherent optical properties (IOPs) of brine pockets and air bubbles over the 0.25-4.0 μm spectral region are parameterized as a function of the vertical profile of the sea ice physical properties (temperature, salinity and density). We test the model performance using available albedo and transmittance measurements collected during the Impacts of Climate on the Ecosystems and Chemistry of the Arctic Pacific Environment (ICESCAPE) and the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) field campaigns. The observations are adequately simulated when at least three layers are used to represent bare (first-year and multi-year) ice, including a thin top layer characterized by low density and high scattering. Two layers can be sufficient to model isolated cases of multi-year ice, and apply well to ponded ice except for shallow ponds over thick ice. The albedo and transmittance of ponded ice in the visible are mainly determined by the optical properties of the ice underlying the water layer used to model the pond. Sensitivity results indicate that the air volume or ice density has the largest impact on the simulated fluxes. Possible contamination from light-absorbing impurities, such as black carbon or ice algae, is also implemented in the model and is able to effectively reduce the albedo and transmittance in the visible spectrum to further improve the model-observation agreement. The agreement between the observed and modeled spectra validates the parameterization of the sea ice IOPs, and endorses COART as an accurate tool for radiation studies in the cryosphere.

Coupled Ocean-9 Atmosphere Radiative Transfer (COA↗
NASA NTRS1999

Seasonal Water Transport in the Atmosphere of Mars: Applications of a Mars General Circulation Model Using Mars Global Surveyor Data

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. We present below a summary of progress made during the duration of this JRI. The focus of this JRI has been to investigate seasonal water vapor transport in the atmosphere of Mars and its effects on the planet's present climate. To this end, the primary task has been to adapt a new dynamical processor for the adiabatic tendencies of the atmospheric circulation into the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). Using identical boundary and initial conditions, several comparative tests between the new and old MGCMs have been performed and the nature of the simulated circulations have been diagnosed. With confidence that the updated version of the Ames MGCM produces quite similar mean and eddy circulation statistics, the new climate model is well poised as a tool to pursue fundamental questions related to the spatial and seasonal variations of atmospheric water vapor on Mars, and to explore exchanges of water with non-atmospheric reservoirs and transport within its atmosphere. In particular, the role of surface sources and sinks can be explored, the range of water-vapor saturation altitudes can be investigated, and plausible precipitation mechanisms can be studied, for a range of atmospheric dust loadings, such future investigations can contribute to a comprehensive study of surface inventories, exchange mechanisms, and the relative importance of atmospheric transport Mars' water cycle. A listing of presentations made and manuscripts submitted during the course of this project is provided.

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Seasonal Water Transport in the Atmosphere of Mars: Applications of a Mars General Circulation Model Using Mars Global Surveyor Data

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. We present below a summary of progress made during the duration of this JRI. The focus of this JRI has been to investigate seasonal water vapor transport in the atmosphere of Mars and its effects on the planet's present climate. To this end, the primary task has been to adapt a new dynamical processor for the adiabatic tendencies of the atmospheric circulation into the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). Using identical boundary and initial conditions, several comparative tests between the new and old MGCMs have been performed and the nature of the simulated circulations have been diagnosed. With confidence that the updated version of the Ames MGCM produces quite similar mean and eddy circulation statistics, the new climate model is well poised as a tool to pursue fundamental questions related to the spatial and seasonal variations of atmospheric water vapor on Mars, and to explore exchanges of water with non-atmospheric reservoirs and transport within its atmosphere. In particular, the role of surface sources and sinks can be explored, the range of water-vapor saturation altitudes can be investigated, and plausible precipitation mechanisms can be studied, for a range of atmospheric dust loadings. Such future investigations can contribute to a comprehensive study of surface inventories, exchange mechanisms, and the relative importance of atmospheric transport Mars' water cycle. A listing of presentations made and manuscripts submitted during the course of this project is provided.

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.↗
NASA NTRS1981

A gradient model of vegetation and climate utilizing NOAA satellite imagery. Phase 1: Texas transect

A climatological model/variable termed the sponge (a measure of moisture availability based on daily temperature maxima and minima, and precipitation) was tested for potential biogeograhic, ecological, and agro-climatological applications. Results, depicted in tabular and graphic form, suggest that, as generalized climatic index, sponge is particularly appropriate for large-area and global vegetation monitoring. The feasibility of utilizing NOAA/AVHRR data for vegetation classification was investigated and a vegetation gradient model that utilizes sponge and AVHRR data was initiated. Along an east-west Texas gradient, vegetation, sponge, and AVHRR pixel data (channels 1 and 2) were obtained for 12 locations. The normalized difference values for the AVHRR data when plotted against vegetation characteristics (biomass, net productivity, leaf area) and sponge values along the Texas gradient suggest that a multivariate gradient model incorporating AVHRR and sponge data may indeed be useful in global vegetation stratification and monitoring.

Greegor, D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

MSD CoP Webinar: AI and Extreme Events - Overcoming Data Challenges for Improved Characterization of Climate Extremes

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Artificial Intelligence (AI) models require large volumes of data for training and testing. Data requirements present challenges for using AI to explore extreme events with limited observational data. This webinar will showcase two innovative methods developed by part of the European Climate Intelligence (CLINT) project to overcome data challenges and harness AI to improve our understanding of climate extremes. Dr. Ascenso will present his research on data augmentation methods to improve estimates of tropical cyclones using satellite data. His presentation will review established methods for data augmentation and explore opportunities and challenges for using generative AI to generate images of extreme, life-threatening tropical cyclones. Next, Dr. Plesiat will present his research on deep learning techniques to overcome limited observational data sets. His presentation will illustrate deep learning methods to develop AI reconstructions of four climate indices across Europe. Presenters : Dr. Guido Ascenso (post-doctoral researcher, Politecnico di Milano); Dr. Étienne Plésiat (German Climate Computing Centre - DKRZ) Moderator(s): Stefano Galelli (MSD CoP WG Co-Lead), David Gold (MSD CoP WG Co-Lead), Jillian Sturtevant (MSD CoP WG Communications Officer), Matteo Giuliani (Politecnico di Milano, MSD CoP WG Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: October 11, 2024 from 11AM - 1PM ET

AI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Climate impacts in scenarios: time to close the loop?

Reaching a full understanding of the consequences of climate change for society and ecosystems, and the ensuing needs for adaptation, requires a consideration of the interactions between human and Earth systems. Currently, however, climate research largely separates the influence of society on climate from the influence of climate on society; that is, it doesn’t “close the loop.” A primary example of this approach is the generation and use of earth system model (ESM) simulations in the climate change research community. Large-scale socio-economic models, known as integrated assessment models (IAMs), are used to project emissions and land use change which serve as input to ESMs. ESM projections then serve as input to models of impacts on society and ecosystems. But, according to this modeling chain, those impacts do not affect the emissions and land use that drove the ESMs in the first place. Previous work has not drawn firm conclusions on whether this feedback would be large enough to warrant explicitly accounting for it. Two prominent possibilities, however, are that emissions and land use scenarios representing the high and low ends of the plausible range of future climate change are both too extreme. The high-end scenario may miss damaging impacts that would reduce economic activity, and therefore emissions, while the low-end scenario may ignore climate feedbacks that would make large-scale land-based carbon removal ineffective and therefore would hamper mitigation at the level assumed by the scenario. In this piece, we identify the opportunities and challenges that implementing such feedback loops would face. We argue that recent developments in climate impact research, human system modeling and ESM emulation make the time ripe to use IAMs in a structured model intercomparison exercise. Model intercomparison projects have benefitted the climate modeling community for decade snow, and more recently have also benefitted the impact modeling community. An IAM intercomparison focused on integrating impacts could make large strides in testing the implications of these feedbacks and assessing whether closing the loop would fundamentally change our outlook on future climate changes and their consequences.

Tebaldi, Claudia↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulating ice-shelf extent using damage mechanics

Abstract Inaccurate representations of iceberg calving from ice shelves are a large source of uncertainty in mass-loss projections from the Antarctic ice sheet. Here, we address this limitation by implementing and testing a continuum damage-mechanics model in a continental scale ice-sheet model. The damage-mechanics formulation, based on a linear stability analysis and subsequent long-wavelength approximation of crevasses that evolve in a viscous medium, links damage evolution to climate forcing and the large-scale stresses within an ice shelf. We incorporate this model into the BISICLES ice-sheet model and test it by applying it to idealized (1) ice tongues, for which we present analytical solutions and (2) buttressed ice-shelf geometries. Our simulations show that the model reproduces the large disparity in lengths of ice shelves with geometries and melt rates broadly similar to those of four Antarctic ice shelves: Erebus Glacier Tongue (length ~ 13 km), the unembayed portion of Drygalski Ice Tongue (~ 65 km), the Amery Ice Shelf (~ 350 km) and the Ross Ice Shelf (~ 500 km). These results demonstrate that our simple continuum model holds promise for constraining realistic ice-shelf extents in large-scale ice-sheet models in a computationally tractable manner.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗