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At least 199 records · Page 11

Impact of Optimized land Surface Parameters on the Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations of Dry and Wet Extremes

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to the land cover and soil type mapping of the observations and the full domain. The impact of the calibrated parameters on the a) spin up of land surface states used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture fluxes of the coupled (LIS-WRF) simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather, PBL budgets, and precipitation along with L-A coupling diagnostics. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, normal) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity (e.g.,. relating to the representation of the spatial dependence of parameters) and the feasibility of calibrating to multiple observational datasets are also discussed.

Kumar, Sujay↗

Boundary Layer Remote Sensing with Combined Active and Passive Techniques: GPS Radio Occultation and High-Resolution Stereo Imaging (WindCam) Small Satellite Concept

Objective: significant progress in understanding low-cloud boundary layer processes. This is the Single largest uncertainty in climate projections. Radio occultation has unique features suited to boundary layer remote sensing (1) Cloud penetrating (2) Very high vertical resolution (approximately 50m-100m) (3) Sensitivity to thermodynamic variables

stereo camera↗

Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) Interactions playa critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (US-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF Simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A.↗

Impact of Land Model Calibration on Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry and wet land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through calibration of the Noah land surface model using the new optimization and uncertainty estimation subsystem in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE). The impact of the calibration on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) the simulated heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations is then assessed. Changes in ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling are evaluated along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Results indicate that the offline calibration leads to systematic improvements in land-PBL fluxes and near-surface temperature and humidity, and in the process provide guidance on the questions of what, how, and when to calibrate land surface models for coupled model prediction.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

Impact of Calibrated Land Surface Model Parameters on the Accuracy and Uncertainty of Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

Improved Intraseasonal Variability in the NASA GEOS AGCM with 2-moment Microphysics and a Shallow Cumulus Parameterization

Weather and climate models have long struggled to realistically simulate the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Here we present a significant improvement in MJO simulation in NASA's GEOS atmospheric model with the implementation of 2-moment microphysics and the UW shallow cumulus parameterization. Comparing ten-year runs (2007-2016) with the old (1mom) and updated (2mom+shlw) model physics, the updated model has increased intra-seasonal variance with increased coherence. Surface fluxes and OLR are found to vary more realistically with precipitation, and a moisture budget suggests that changes in rain reevaporation and the cloud longwave feedback help support heavy precipitation. Preliminary results also show improved MJO hindcast skill.

Madden-Julian Oscillatio↗

Possible Climate Histories of Venus Type Worlds

There are two well-known scenarios for Venus’ climate evolution. In one Venus had a long-lived magma ocean phase in its first 100Myr with a steam and CO2 dominated atmosphere. The faint young sun with its high XUV flux would cause photodissociation of the steam atmosphere and hydrodynamic escape would cause most of the hydrogen to escape & left-over oxygen would be absorbed by the magma ocean. Hence Venus would have started out hot and dry and the high D/H ratio measured by Pioneer Venus would be from this period of water loss. The other scenario is that Venus’ magma ocean lifetime would have been roughly the same length of time as Earth’s (~1Myr) and water would have condensed on its surface in its early history and had a short period of habitability before increasing solar insolation through time drove it into a runaway greenhouse. However, results from 2016 showed that if Venus remains in the slowly rotating climate dynamics regime (as seen in exoplanet related climate studies) its cloud albedo feedback would have kept it temperate for possibly billions of years. The only way to confirm which one of these scenarios occurred for Venus is to visit it and make the necessary measurements of noble and volatile gases. But exoplanet observations of young exo-Venus type worlds around young F,G,K dwarf stars may constrain which scenario is more probable for a population of such planets. We present a vision of Venus’ climate history that places it and its exoVenus cousins in an ‘Optimistic Venus Zone’ for ~3 billion years within the conventionally named ‘Venus Zone’ and hence encourage the exoplanet communit as possible habitable environments.

Way, M. J.↗

Possible climate histories of Venus type worlds

There are two well-known scenarios for Venus’ climate evolution. In one Venus had a long-lived magma ocean phase in its first 100Myr with a steam and CO2dominated atmosphere[1]. The faint young sun with its high XUV flux would cause photo-dissociation of the steam atmosphere and hydrodynamic escape would cause most of the hydrogen to escape and the left over oxygen would be absorbed by the magma ocean. Hence Venus would have started out hot and dry and the high D/H ratio measured by Pioneer Venus [2] would be from this period of water loss. The other scenario is that Venus’ magma ocean lifetime would have been roughly the same length of time as Earth’s (~1Myr) and water would have condensed on its surface in its early history. As long as Venus remained in the slowly rotating climate dynamics regime [3,4] its cloud albedo feedback would have kept it temperate for possibly billions of years. The only way to confirm which one of these scenarios occurred for Venus is to visit it and make the necessary measurements of noble and volatile gases [5].But exoplanet observations of young exo-Venus type worlds around young F,G,K dwarf stars may constrain whether both scenarios are equally probable for a population of such planets. We present a vision of Venus’ climate history that places it and its exo-Venus cousins in an ‘Optimistic Venus Zone’ within the conventionally named ‘Venus Zone’ [6] and hence encourage the exoplanet community to seek out these worlds as possible habitable environments.

Venus’ climate evolution↗

The Role of Thermodynamic Phase Shifts in Cloud Optical Depth Variations with Temperature

We present a novel method that identifies the contributions of thermodynamic phase shifts and processes governing supercooled liquid and ice clouds to cloud optical depth variations with temperature using MODIS observations. Our findings suggest that thermodynamic phase shifts outweigh the net influence of processes governing supercooled liquid and ice clouds in causing increases in mid-latitudinal cold cloud optical depth with temperature. Cloud regime analysis suggests that dynamical conditions appear to have less influence on the contribution of thermodynamic phase shifts to cloud optical depth variations with temperature. Thermodynamic phase shifts also contribute more to increases in cloud optical depth during colder seasons due to the enhanced optical thickness contrast between liquid and ice clouds. The results of this study highlight the importance of thermodynamic phase shifts in explaining cold cloud optical depth increases with temperature in the current climate and may elucidate their role in the cloud optical depth feedback.

cloud optical depth↗

The radiative effects of clouds and their impact on climate

The radiative effects of clouds on the climate system are reviewed on the basis of data published over the last 15-20 years and some relevant unpublished model studies. Emphasis is placed on the impact of clouds on the incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere and the two-way interaction of clouds with other variables of the climate system, i.e., the cloud/climate feedback problem, as revealed by climate model simulations. Investigations aimed at determining the overall effects of clouds on the climate system (climate forcing) show that clouds have a net cooling effect. Two estimates of the global annual average effect of clouds on the net flux at the top of the atmosphere, based on recent satellite observations, show wide discrepancies. The sign of cloud feedback is found to be positive when the spatial distribution of clouds is allowed to vary in response to climate change. It is concluded that clouds may have a strong influence on climate change, but the magnitude of this influence is unknown.

Arking, Albert↗

The Cloudsat Mission and the EOS Constellation: A New Dimension of Space-Based Observation of Clouds and Precipitation

CloudSat is a satellite experiment designed to measure the vertical structure of clouds from space. The expected launch of CloudSat is planned for 2004 and, once launched, CloudSat will orbit in formation as part of a constellation of satellites including NASA's Aqua and Aura satellites, a NASA-CNES lidar satellite (P-C) and a CNES satellite carrying a polarimeter (PARASOL). A unique feature that CloudSat brings to this constellation is the ability to fly a precise orbit enabling the fields of view of the CloudSat radar to be overlapped with the P-C lidar footprint and the other measurements of the EOS constellation. The precision of this overlap creates a unique multi-satellite observing system for studying the atmospheric processes essential to the hydrological cycle. The vertical profile of cloud properties provided by CloudSat fills a critical gap in the investigation of feedback mechanisms linking clouds to climate. Measuring the vertical profile of cloud properties requires a combination of active and passive instruments, and this will be achieved by combining the radar data of CloudSat with active and passive data from other sensors of the constellation. This paper describes the underpinning science, and gives an overview of the mission, and provides some idea of the expected products and anticipated application of these products. Notably, the CloudSat mission is expected to provide new knowledge about global cloudiness, stimulating new areas of research on clouds including data assimilation and cloud parameterization. The mission also provides an important opportunity to demonstrate active sensor technology for future scientific and tactical applications. The CloudSat mission is a partnership between NASA/JPL, the Canadian Space Agency, Colorado State University, the US Air Force, and the US Department of Energy.

Stephens, Graeme L.↗

Aerosol Direct, Indirect, Semidirect, and Surface Albedo Effects from Sector Contributions Based on the IPCC AR5 Emissions for Preindustrial and Present-day Conditions

The anthropogenic increase in aerosol concentrations since preindustrial times and its net cooling effect on the atmosphere is thought to mask some of the greenhouse gas-induced warming. Although the overall effect of aerosols on solar radiation and clouds is most certainly negative, some individual forcing agents and feedbacks have positive forcing effects. Recent studies have tried to identify some of those positive forcing agents and their individual emission sectors, with the hope that mitigation policies could be developed to target those emitters. Understanding the net effect of multisource emitting sectors and the involved cloud feedbacks is very challenging, and this paper will clarify forcing and feedback effects by separating direct, indirect, semidirect and surface albedo effects due to aerosols. To this end, we apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model including detailed aerosol microphysics to examine aerosol impacts on climate by isolating single emission sector contributions as given by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) emission data sets developed for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5. For the modeled past 150 years, using the climate model and emissions from preindustrial times to present-day, the total global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing is -0.6 W/m(exp 2), with the largest contribution from the direct effect (-0.5 W/m(exp 2)). Aerosol-induced changes on cloud cover often depends on cloud type and geographical region. The indirect (includes only the cloud albedo effect with -0.17 W/m(exp 2)) and semidirect effects (-0.10 W/m(exp 2)) can be isolated on a regional scale, and they often have opposing forcing effects, leading to overall small forcing effects on a global scale. Although the surface albedo effects from aerosols are small (0.016 W/m(exp 2)), triggered feedbacks on top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing can be 10 times larger. Our results point out that each emission sector has varying impacts by geographical region. For example, the single sector most responsible for a net positive radiative forcing is the transportation sector in the United States, agricultural burning and transportation in Europe, and the domestic emission sector in Asia. These sectors are attractive mitigation targets.

Bauer, Susanne E.↗

Experience of the JPL Exploratory Data Analysis Team at validating HIRS2/MSU cloud parameters

Validation of the HIRS2/MSU cloud parameters began with the cloud/climate feedback problem. The derived effective cloud amount is less sensitive to surface temperature for higher clouds. This occurs because as the cloud elevation increases, the difference between surface temperature and cloud temperature increases, so only a small change in cloud amount is needed to effect a large change in radiance at the detector. By validating the cloud parameters it is meant 'developing a quantitative sense for the physical meaning of the measured parameters', by: (1) identifying the assumptions involved in deriving parameters from the measured radiances, (2) testing the input data and derived parameters for statistical error, sensitivity, and internal consistency, and (3) comparing with similar parameters obtained from other sources using other techniques.

Kahn, Ralph↗

The effect of clouds on the earth's solar and infrared radiation budgets

The effect of global cloudiness on the solar and infrared components of the earth's radiation balance is studied in general circulation model experiments. A wintertime simulation is conducted in which the cloud radiative transfer calculations use realistic cloud optical properties and are fully interactive with model-generated cloudiness. This simulation is compared to others in which the clouds are alternatively non-interactive with respect to the solar or thermal radiation calculations. Other cloud processes (formation, latent heat release, precipitation, vertical mixing) were accurately simulated in these experiments. It is concluded that on a global basis clouds increase the global radiation balance by 40 W/sq m by absorbing longwave radiation, but decrease it by 56 W/sq m by reflecting solar radiation to space. The net cloud effect is therefore a reduction of the radiation balance by 16 W/sq m, and is dominated by the cloud albedo effect. Changes in cloud frequency and distribution and in atmospheric and land temperatures are also reported for the control and for the non-interactive simulations. In general, removal of the clouds' infrared absorption cools the atmosphere and causes additional cloudiness to occur, while removal of the clouds' solar radiative properties warms the atmosphere and causes fewer clouds to form. It is suggested that layered clouds and convective clouds over water enter the climate system as positive feedback components, while convective clouds over land enter as negative components.

Herman, G. F.↗

Cloud and ice in the planetary scale circulation and in climate

The roles of the cryosphere, and of cloud-radiative interactions are investigated. The effects clouds and ice have in the climate system are examined. The cloud radiation research attempts explain the modes of interaction (feedback) between raditive transfer, cloud formation, and atmospheric dynamics. The role of sea ice in weather and climate is also discussed. Models are used to describe the ice and atmospheric dynamics under study.

Herman, G. F.↗