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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Orbital Debris Mitigation and CubeSats

The 2019 Update to the United States Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices (ODMSP) included CubeSats for the first time as a special class of space operations. This is the first governmental-level policy document that calls for CubeSats to follow quantitative recommendations for orbital debris mitigation. While CubeSats were never exempt from such recommendations, mission designers often under assess CubeSats due to their small size and historically low level of stored energy. Qualitative assessments of debris potential are less applicable as miniaturized energy systems (propulsive and electrical) become more available and as the “CubeSat” label is applied to larger payloads. Of particular interest to the long-term evolution of the debris environment is the likelihood of accidental explosion or collision; we must also consider the risk to the human population from reentering spacecraft. We discuss the on-orbit history of CubeSats and present guidance to assist in designing for future compliance with the new standard practices.

Chris L Ostrom↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Guidance and Control for Laser-Based Non-Cooperative Target Detumbling

Large pieces of orbital debris form a significant risk of fragmentation in case of collision. Such fragmentation would greatly increase the number of trackable and untrackable debris on orbit. This makes them attractive targets for future rendezvous and disposal missions. However, these non-cooperative targets tend to be tumbling and rendezvous with them is a dangerous prospect. To avoid this danger, contactless detumbling through laser ablation has been proposed prior to rendezvous. Existing proposals for contactless laser-based detumbling have yet to include an in-depth study of the problem's guidance, navigation, and control requirements. In this work we develop an attitude and relative motion control scheme for a chaser satellite detumbling a non-cooperative target via laser. We show that detumbling can be achieved with reasonable time and dV budgets. With Monte Carlo methods we explore the impact of laser force on the detumbling operation and reveal some non-intuitive relationships.

Guidance↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Guidance and Control for Laser-Based Non-Cooperative Target Detumbling

Large pieces of orbital debris form a significant risk of fragmentation in case of collision. Such fragmentation would greatly increase the number of trackable and untrackable debris on orbit. This makes them attractive targets for future rendezvous and disposal missions. However, these non-cooperative targets tend to be tumbling and rendezvous with them is a dangerous prospect. To avoid this danger, contactless detumbling through laser ablation has been proposed prior to rendezvous. Existing proposals for contactless laser-based detumbling have yet to include an in-depth study of the problem's guidance, navigation, and control requirements. In this work we develop an attitude and relative motion control scheme for a chaser satellite detumbling a non-cooperative target via laser. We show that detumbling can be achieved with reasonable time and dV budgets. With Monte Carlo methods we explore the impact of laser force on the detumbling operation and reveal some non-intuitive relationships.

Guidance↗
NASA NTRS2024

Quantification of Uncertainty and Risk Sensitivity for Safety of Emerging Operations

The growing need to develop and deploy small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAVs) for various applications in the airspace necessitates reliable tools to accurately predict the flight trajectories of the sUAVs. The knowledge of the predicted trajectories help decision makers anticipate potential conflict, assess the risk, and take appropriate risk mitigation actions. In addition, uncertainties in vehicle models, weather, and controller action further highlights the need for reliable prediction tools. In this project, the application of mixed sparse grid-based quadrature and generalized polynomial chaos(gPC) expansion method for uncertainty quantification and collision assessment in air traffic consisting of fixed-wing small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAV) was studied. From the results obtained, it can be concluded that this provides a reliable framework to carry out quantitative conflict assessment in an unmanned air traffic, which when employed, can improve the functionalities of the unmanned traffic management system. It was observed that the results from the gPC expansion framework developed in the project can be utilized to conduct rapid probabilistic collision assessment for near real-time unmanned traffic management in the airspace. From the vehicle models, position updates, and wind-field data, a priori gPC based 3-σcon-fidence ellipses can provide estimates of potential conflict at some future instants. The computational costs scaled linearly when the uncertain inputs were fewer. Further, the largest allowable distribution of para-metric uncertainties that leads to the smallest risk of collision in traffic of small unmanned aerial vehicles could be calculated. The time of closest approach between two sUAVs can be established paving way for development of proactive mitigation strategies. The separation between the sUAVs was found to be most significantly affected by uncertainties in the maximum available thrusts, zero-lift drag coefficients, and wing planform areas of the sUAVs. The study of uncertain wind-fields indicated that a heterogeneous traffic mix resulted in an increased probability of conflict. Increased measurement update rate reduced the uncertain-ties in the trajectories of the vehicles, further reducing the probability of conflict but rapid updates of all vehicles in the airspace poses a stringent communication limitation. The gPC framework also provided the means to analyze vehicle impact (crash region) due to loss of control resulting from actuator failure in sUAS traffic, essentially to predict impact and crash zones for representative vehicles. The predicted regions when compared with non-participant density, provides a means to develop an early mitigation strategy, should the sUAV detect an imminent actuator failure.

Rajnish Bhusal↗
NASA NTRS2015

Peak Pc Prediction in Conjunction Analysis: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

Satellite conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision (Pc). Considers both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially discovered through Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest Approach (TCA). However, JSpOC continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance. Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation level, then event intensity can be relaxed. Can the peak Pc location be reasonably predicted?

Operations↗
NASA NTRS2014

Exit Presentation Fall 2013

Our current International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment (ISS PRA) model assumes all collisions between a visiting vehicle (VV) and the ISS result in worst case loss of the ISS crew and the vehicle (LOCV). Drawing results from the Mir-Progress collision, we know this assumption is inaccurate because that collision did not lead to LOCV. Therefore the PRA team is conducting a study to determine the likelihood of LOCV when a collision occurs between a VV and the ISS. Kinetic energy is calculated and converted to pounds of TNT for the moving VVs when they collide with the ISS. Different scenarios are evaluated to obtain collision related data such as translational kinetic energy and rotational kinetic energy. These calculated data are integrated into the results from the expert elicitation performed on the Mir- Progress collision. As a result of this study, the PRA model will now calculate the probability of a VV collision with ISS, the probability that collision will result in Loss of Soyuz Crew (LOC) or Loss of ISS Crew and Vehicle (LOCV).

Yang, Qi Rong↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Bird Strike Likelihood to Refine Bird Strike Risk Models

In its most basic form, bird strike risk is comprised of a frequency component that reflects the likelihood of a collision and a severity component that reflects the cost (monetary or otherwise) of the incident. The bird strike risk model currently used by United State Department of Agriculture (USDA) Wildlife Services to evaluate the risk posed by individual bird species at airports and establish priorities for management was developed in 2018. The model uses airport-specific data on the number of reported strikes for a species recorded in the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)’s National Wildlife Strike Database as a measure of frequency and the species’ relative hazard score as a measure of severity. The model was tested against independent data, found to perform well overall, and is being implemented widely across the United States. However, the model has limitations, including that species known to pose risk to aircraft locally, but not present in the strike record database, are not reflected as a major component of risk. Standard bird survey methodology commonly used at airports (e.g. point counts or transects) potentially can be used to complement wildlife strike records to calculate frequency or relative abundance of species. However, these methods generally focus on airport-wide population estimation and often ignore vital information that contributes to the true likelihood of a strike, such as use of runway protection zones and other critical areas, and spatial and temporal overlap with departing or approaching aircraft. As such, a more detailed understanding of space use by birds across landcovers and population fluctuations across the year is needed to accurately estimate the likelihood of bird strikes at airports. In this manuscript, we will review the extant risk model, including a discussion on its limitations. We then discuss approaches for refining our understanding of strike likelihood and briefly touch on needs for estimating probability of strike severity (cost).

bird strike, aircraft collision, damage by wildlif↗
NASA NTRS1990

Risk assessment methodologies for target fragments produced in high-energy nucleon reactions

Collisions of energetic protons with target nuclei yield nuclear products of large linear energy transfer, and it is usually assumed that the energy of the heavy products is absorbed locally with a quality factor of 20. Past methods of risk assessment have relied on the Bertini (1969) model to evaluate the nuclear reaction products. If the Q(F) of 20 is correct, then a significant underestimate of biological risk from the nuclear products could result from the use of Bertini's model. On the other hand, a Q(F) of 20 is probably too large for some of the lighter fragments, leaving prior risk estimates as possibly correct or even conservative. This issue is discussed here in the context of the recently proposed nuclear data set of Wilson et al. (1989).

Shinn, J. L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Velocity- and pressure-based metrics for estimating strike injuries during fish passage through hydro turbines

Hydropower is a crucial source of clean and reliable energy worldwide, and its importance will continue to grow. To enhance the environmental sustainability of hydropower development and operations, it is essential to predict the strike injury rates of fish passing through turbines accurately and cost-effectively. However, conventional experiments involving a large number of live fish are still commonly conducted in practice, and previous attempts mainly focused on the dose-response relationships at an individual level or relative comparisons of biological characterization between different conditions. Thus, this study proposes two novel strike metrics based on velocity and pressure (M V and M P ) measured by the cutting-edge Sensor Fish (SF) technology, designed to quantify the biological effects of strikes and collisions between fish and rigid hydraulic structures. SF measurements and 48-hour survival rates of live fish from a study conducted at the Ice Harbor Dam on the Snake River were used to establish thresholds for the two proposed metrics. These metrics and thresholds were then applied to three additional SF studies conducted at hydropower facilities featuring Kaplan turbines within the Columbia River basin. Results from the application of the strike metrics indicate that the estimated survival rates derived from both metrics agree well with previously reported live fish survival rates. Furthermore, the study identified specific passage regions with elevated risks of fish mortality due to strikes and collisions. Overall, the proposed strike metrics present a reliable and cost-effective approach to reducing reliance on live fish and lowering costs in fish passage studies.

Biological characterization↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Single Conjunction Risk Assessment Metric: the F-Value

The Conjunction Assessment Team at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center provides conjunction risk assessment for many NASA robotic missions. These risk assessments are based on several figures of merit, such as miss distance, probability of collision, and orbit determination solution quality. However, these individual metrics do not singly capture the overall risk associated with a conjunction, making it difficult for someone without this complete understanding to take action, such as an avoidance maneuver. The goal of this analysis is to introduce a single risk index metric that can easily convey the level of risk without all of the technical details. The proposed index is called the conjunction "F-value." This paper presents the concept of the F-value and the tuning of the metric for use in routine Conjunction Assessment operations.

Frigm, Ryan Clayton↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Metrics on Predictive Probability of Collision Assessments Reliant on Object State Updates

The probability of collision (Pc) metric is the dominant method of risk charac-terization for evaluating satellite close approaches, and has become of particular interest following major debris production incidents. However, confidence in the use of Pc for actionability has been questioned due in part due to its non-intuitive and often significant corrections following messaging updates. This paper assesses predictively computed probabilities and confidence bounds on Pc values corresponding to orbit determination updates by comparing these predic-tive values to observed operational values. This paper also presents use cases for this methodology in assessing event actionability.

conjunction assessment↗
NASA NTRS2019

Satellite Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis for "Dilution Region" Events: Issues and Operational Approaches

An important activity within Space Traffic Management is the detection and prevention of possible on-orbit collisions between space objects. The principal parameter for assessing collision likelihood is the probability of collision, which is widely accepted among conjunction assessment practitioners; but it possesses a known deficiency in that it can produce a false sense of safety when the orbital position uncertainties for the conjuncting objects are high. The probability of collision is said to be “diluted” in such a situation and to understate the possible risk; certain approaches have been recommended by researchers to provide (largely conservative) risk estimates and remediation methodologies in these cases. The present analysis explores two of the main proposals for quantifying and remediating possible risk in the dilution region and quantifies their operational implications. These implications with regard to imputed additional workload are considerable, especially in anticipating the conjunction event levels expected with the deployment of the USAF Space Fence radar. This effort has been undertaken as part of a larger enterprise that seeks to clarify the philosophical and statistical underpinnings of the conjunction risk assessment process. The analysis presented herein argues that a form of hypothesis testing is implicitly used in conjunction assessment risk analysis, and that there are a number of conceptual and practical reasons for constructing the associated null hypothesis to counsel against a satellite conjunction remediation action. In short, it is concluded that, for the purposes of determining whether a conjunction remediation action should be pursued, dilution-region probabilities of collision should be treated no differently from those produced under other circumstances.

Probability of collision↗
NASA NTRS2015

Conjunction Assessment Past, Present, and Future

Since 1957, humankind's reliance on the space domain for military, humanitarian, and commercial applications has continued to increase. 1960 first successful use of a meteorological satellite,1963 first use of a geosynchronous communications satellite, 1985 Block I of GPS fielded, 1998 first module of ISS, 2001 first satellite radio broadcast over North America. What you take into space, stays in space: launch vehicle, rocket-bodies, mission-related debris. Debris can also be generated on-orbit: fuel/battery explosions, collisions. Only naturally-occurring retarding effect is orbital decay due to atmospheric drag: some remediation measures available, active debris removal not yet viable option. Because of our reliance on space and the fact that space really isn't limitless, the Big Sky theory is no longer an acceptable risk posture. There have been eight (8) on-orbit collisions reported to date, half of which occurred in the last 10 years.

Assessment↗
NASA NTRS2011

Engineering and Technology Challenges for Active Debris Removal

After more than fifty years of space activities, the near-Earth environment is polluted with man-made orbital debris. The collision between Cosmos 2251 and the operational Iridium 33 in 2009 signaled a potential collision cascade effect, also known as the "Kessler Syndrome", in the environment. Various modelling studies have suggested that the commonly-adopted mitigation measures will not be sufficient to stabilize the future debris population. Active debris removal must be considered to remediate the environment. This paper summarizes the key issues associated with debris removal and describes the technology and engineering challenges to move forward. Fifty-four years after the launch of Sputnik 1, satellites have become an integral part of human society. Unfortunately, the ongoing space activities have left behind an undesirable byproduct orbital debris. This environment problem is threatening the current and future space activities. On average, two Shuttle window panels are replaced after every mission due to damage by micrometeoroid or orbital debris impacts. More than 100 collision avoidance maneuvers were conducted by satellite operators in 2010 to reduce the impact risks of their satellites with respect to objects in the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog. Of the four known accident collisions between objects in the SSN catalog, the last one, collision between Cosmos 2251 and the operational Iridium 33 in 2009, was the most significant. It was the first ever accidental catastrophic destruction of an operational satellite by another satellite. It also signaled the potential collision cascade effect in the environment, commonly known as the "Kessler Syndrome," predicted by Kessler and Cour-Palais in 1978 [1]. Figure 1 shows the historical increase of objects in the SSN catalog. The majority of the catalog objects are 10 cm and larger. As of April 2011, the total objects tracked by the SSN sensors were more than 22,000. However, approximately 6000 of them had yet to be fully processed and entered into the catalog. This population had been dominated by fragmentation debris throughout history. Before the anti-satellite test (ASAT) conducted by China in 2007, the fragmentation debris were almost all explosion fragments. After the ASAT test and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251, the ratio of collision fragments to explosion fragments was about one-to-one. It is expected that accidental collision fragments will further dominate the environment in the future.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗
NASA NTRS2006

Notional Airspace Operations Demonstration Plan

The airspace operations demonstration (AOD) is intended to show that the Access 5 Step 1 functional requirements can be met. The demonstration will occur in two phases. The initial on-range phase will be carried out in restricted airspace to demonstrate the cooperative collision avoidance (CCA) functional requirements and to provide risk-reduction for the AOD by allowing the test team to rehearse some elements of the demonstration mission. The CCA system to be used in these flights is based on Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) which is a commercially-available system by which airplanes constantly broadcast their current position and altitude to other aircraft and ground resources over a dedicated radio datalink. The final phase will occur in the national airspace (NAS) and will be the formal demonstration of the remainder of the proposed functional requirements. The general objectives of the AOD are as follows: (1) Demonstrate that the UAS can aviate in the NAS (2) Demonstrate that the UAS can navigate in the NAS (3) Demonstrate that the UAS can communicate with the NAS (4) Demonstrate that the UAS can perform selected collision avoidance functions in the NAS (5) Demonstrate that the UAS can evaluate and avoid weather conflicts in the NAS (6) Demonstrate that the UAS can provide adequate command and control in the NAS In addition to the stated objectives, there are a number of goals for the flight demonstration. The demo can be accomplished successfully without achieving these goals, but these goals are to be used as a guideline for preparing for the mission. The goals are: (1) Mission duration of at least 24 hours (2) Loiter over heavy traffic to evaluate the data block issue identified during the Access 5 Airspace Operations Simulations (3) Document the contingency management process and lessons learned (4) Document the coordination process for Ground Control Stations (GCS) handoff (5) Document lessons learned regarding the process of flying in the NAS Preliminary planning for a notional mission to achieve the objectives and goals has been prepared. The planning is intended to serve as a guide for detailed planning of the AOD.

Trongale, Nicholas A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua and Aura Space Weather Effects on Operational Collision Avoidance

This presentation will describe recent EOS Aqua and Aura operational collision avoidance experience during periods of solar and geomagnetic storm activity. It will highlight challenges faced by the operations team during short-notice, high-risk predicted close approaches. The presentation will highlight the evolution of the operational collision avoidance process for the EOS Aqua and Aura missions. The presentation will highlight operational challenges that have occurred, process improvements that have been implemented and identify potential future challenges.

Guit, Bill↗
NASA NTRS2017

Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua & Aura Space Weather Effects on Operational Collision Avoidance

This presentation will describe recent EOS Aqua and Aura operational collision avoidance experience during periods of solar and geomagnetic storm activity. It will highlight challenges faced by the operations team during short-notice, high-risk predicted close approaches. The presentation will highlight the evolution of the operational collision avoidance process for the EOS Aqua and Aura missions. The presentation will highlight operational challenges that have occurred, process improvements that have been implemented and identify potential future challenges.

Operational collision avoidance↗
NASA NTRS2013

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Spacecraft Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions

A document discusses sequential probability ratio tests that explicitly allow decision-makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models the null hypotheses that the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming, highly elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗