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At least 199 records · Page 11

The relations between the linear and bilinear atmospheric tidal fields in geometric height and in log-pressure coordinates

Theoretical models of planetary-atmosphere tidal fields are examined analytically, comparing models based on geometric-height coordinates with those employing log-pressure coordinates. The relationship between the linearized meteorological variables in the two systems is explored for classical tidal theory and its reduction to the Laplace tidal equation, and it is shown that identical horizontal and vertical equations are obtained. Also considered are the tidal zonal-mean bilinear flux convergences and their Eliassen-Palm formulations. Numerical results for problems involving the earth and Mars atmospheres are presented in graphs and discussed.

Zurek, Richard W.↗

Relationship of peroxyacetyl nitrate to active and total odd nitrogen at northern high latitudes: influence of reservoir species on NOx and O3

Measurements of peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), NO, NO2, HNO3, NOy (total odd nitrogen), and O3 were made in the high-latitude troposphere over North America and Greenland (35 degrees to 82 degrees N) during the Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE 3A) (July-August 1988) throughout 0-to 6-km altitudes. These data are analyzed to quantitatively describe the relationships between various odd nitrogen species and assess their significance to global tropospheric chemistry. In the free troposphere, PAN was as much as 25 times more abundant than NOx. PAN to NOx ratio increased with increasing altitude and latitude. PAN was found to be the single most abundant reactive nitrogen species in the free troposphere and constituted a major fraction of NOy, PAN to NOy ratios were about 0.1 in the boundary layer and increased to 0.4 in the free troposphere. A 2-D global photochemical model with C1-C3 hydrocarbon chemistry is used to compare model predictions with measured results. A sizable portion (approximately 50%) of the gaseous reactive nitrogen budget is unaccounted for, and unknown organic nitrates and pernitrates are expected to be present. Model calculations (August 1, 70 degrees N) show that a major fraction of the observed NOx (50 to 70% of median) may find its source in the available PAN reservoir. PAN and the unknown reservoir species may have the potential to control virtually the entire NOx availability of the high latitude troposphere. It is predicted that the summer NOx and O3 mixing ratios in the Arctic/sub-Arctic troposphere would be considerably lower in the absence of the ubiquitous PAN reservoir. Conversely, this PAN reservoir may be responsible for the observed temporal increase in tropospheric O3 at high latitudes.

NASA Center ARC↗

The Velocity Distribution of Isolated Radio Pulsars

We infer the velocity distribution of radio pulsars based on large-scale 0.4 GHz pulsar surveys. We do so by modelling evolution of the locations, velocities, spins, and radio luminosities of pulsars; calculating pulsed flux according to a beaming model and random orientation angles of spin and beam; applying selection effects of pulsar surveys; and comparing model distributions of measurable pulsar properties with survey data using a likelihood function. The surveys analyzed have well-defined characteristics and cover approx. 95% of the sky. We maximize the likelihood in a 6-dimensional space of observables P, dot-P, DM, absolute value of b, mu, F (period, period derivative, dispersion measure, Galactic latitude, proper motion, and flux density). The models we test are described by 12 parameters that characterize a population's birth rate, luminosity, shutoff of radio emission, birth locations, and birth velocities. We infer that the radio beam luminosity (i) is comparable to the energy flux of relativistic particles in models for spin-driven magnetospheres, signifying that radio emission losses reach nearly 100% for the oldest pulsars; and (ii) scales approximately as E(exp 1/2) which, in magnetosphere models, is proportional to the voltage drop available for acceleration of particles. We find that a two-component velocity distribution with characteristic velocities of 90 km/ s and 500 km/ s is greatly preferred to any one-component distribution; this preference is largely immune to variations in other population parameters, such as the luminosity or distance scale, or the assumed spin-down law. We explore some consequences of the preferred birth velocity distribution: (1) roughly 50% of pulsars in the solar neighborhood will escape the Galaxy, while approx. 15% have velocities greater than 1000 km/ s (2) observational bias against high velocity pulsars is relatively unimportant for surveys that reach high Galactic absolute value of z distances, but is severe for spatially bounded surveys; (3) an important low-velocity population exists that increases the fraction of neutron stars retained by globular clusters and is consistent with the number of old objects that accrete from the interstellar medium; (4) under standard assumptions for supernova remnant expansion and pulsar spin-down, approx. 10% of pulsars younger than 20 kyr will appear to lie outside of their host remnants. Finally, we comment on the ramifications of our birth velocity distribution for binary survival and the population of inspiraling binary neutron stars relevant to some GRB models and potential sources for LIGO.

Arzoumanian, Z.↗

Machine Learning for Predicting Team Functioning in HERA Missions

Team functioning is integral to success in future long term space exploration missions. Proactively detecting declines in team functioning can mitigate conflict and ensure mission success. This project developed a speech-based artificial intelligence (AI) system that unobtrusively predicts degradation in team functioning, including performance and cohesion, in the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) Campaigns 4 and 5. The AI system conducted automated analysis of the prosodic (tone of voice) and linguistic (language content) components of speech, modeling interpersonal dynamics at both the turn-taking and day-wide levels. We investigated team functioning via observing structured interactions (i.e., multi-mission space exploration vehicle-extra vehicular activity [MMSEV-EVA], team interaction battery [TIB]) and unstructured interactions before the MMSEV-EVA task. We developed machine learning models to predict team functioning (objective task accuracy, self reported team efficacy and self reported team cohesion) by analyzing OpenSmile acoustic features, linguistic descriptors extracted via the linguistic inquiry and word count (LIWC) dictionary, and semantic embeddings. In the TIB, static models using logistic regression and random forests were not able to predict task accuracy, but predicted team efficacy and cohesion during both the decision making and relational tasks to a moderate level (60-70%). Majority voting on the individual turns to predict day long team efficacy further increased accuracies (70-80%). Finally, long short-term memory (LSTM) models showed the best performance across all variables (80-91%), including task performance. In the MMSEV-EVA, static models achieved an accuracy of 60% with majority voting, which increased to 80% through the incorporation of mission day as a variable, accounting for the learning effect. A key finding across both tasks was the "team-dependent" nature of these interactions; models achieved much higher accuracy when trained on prior days of the same team's data rather than attempting to generalize across entirely different teams, with even 1-2 days of prior data per team achieving 5-15% improvement over team-independent models. In addition, the incorporation of pre-task data from the same team also improves model performance, e.g., incorporating data from the decision-making task of the TIB, which preceded the relational task, improved the prediction of team efficacy and cohesion during the latter. We compared model performance when trained on machine-generated data compared to data that had been further corrected by human annotators. Overall, models trained on human-corrected data exhibited a modest improvement in performance, particularly when acoustic features were used. We found no significant correlation between word error rate (WER) and model accuracy (r(55) = -0.08, p = 0.51), but model’s accuracy was significantly higher for medium/high quality transcription (0.74 (SD = 0.48)) compared to the low-quality group (0.64 (SD = 0.36)) (t(63)=2.82, p = 0.006). Based on these, several design recommendation emerge, that could inform Standards at NASA. Models predicting team functioning should incorporate at least one to two days of historical interaction data, include brief pre-task discussions, and explicitly model temporal learning effects, especially for longer operational tasks. Minimum quality standards for automated speech-processing pipelines are needed, given the performance gains observed with manually corrected acoustic data. Finally, systems should leverage both acoustic features and language embeddings in complementary ways, with modality choices and fusion strategies tailored to mission context, task demands, and data quality requirements.

Shrivatsa Mishra↗

A model study of the response of mesospheric ozone to short-term solar ultraviolet flux variations

An investigation is conducted in order to determine the relative importance of several modeled processes in controlling the magnitude and phase of the mesospheric ozone response. A detailed one-dimensional modeling study of the mesospheric ozone response to solar UV flux variations is conducted to remove some of the deficiencies in previous studies. This study is also used to examine specifically the importance of solar zenith angle, self-consistent calculation of water vapor abundance, and temperature feedback with a nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium radiation model. The photochemical model is described, and the assumptions made for the purpose of comparing model results with the observed ozone response obtained from a statistical analysis of Solar Mesosphere Explorer data (Keating et al., 1987) are discussed. The numerical results for the theoretical ozone response are presented. The results of selected time-dependent calculations are considered to illustrate the degree to which a relatively simple model of the mesosphere is able to capture the major characteristics of the observed response.

Summers, M. E.↗

Relative effects on stratospheric ozone of halogenated methanes and ethanes of social and industrial interest

Four atmospheric modeling groups have calculated relative effects of several halocarbons (chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's)-11, 12, 113, 114, and 115; hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC's) 22, 123, 124, 141b, and 142b; hydrofluorocarbons (HFC's) 125, 134a, 143a, and 152a, carbon tetrachloride; and methyl chloroform) on stratospheric ozone. Effects on stratospheric ozone were calculated for each compound and normalized relative to the effect of CFC-11. These models include the representations for homogeneous physical and chemical processes in the middle atmosphere but do no account for either heterogeneous chemistry or polar dynamics which are important in the spring time loss of ozone over Antarctica. Relative calculated effects using a range of models compare reasonably well. Within the limits of the uncertainties of these model results, compounds now under consideration as functional replacements for fully halogenated compounds have modeled stratospheric ozone reductions of 10 percent or less of that of CFC-11. Sensitivity analyses examined the sensitivity of relative calculated effects to levels of other trace gases, assumed transport in the models, and latitudinal and seasonal local dependencies. Relative effects on polar ozone are discussed in the context of evolving information on the special processes affecting ozone, especially during polar winter-springtime. Lastly, the time dependency of relative effects were calculated.

Fisher, Donald A.↗

A New Regional Climate Model for POLAR‐CORDEX: Evaluation of a 30‐Year Hindcast with COSMO‐CLM^2 Over Antarctica

Continent‐wide climate information over the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is important to obtain accurate information of present climate and reduce uncertainties of the ice sheet mass balance response and resulting global sea level rise to future climate change. In this study, the COSMO‐CLM^2 Regional Climate Model is applied over the AIS and adapted for the specific meteorological and climatological conditions of the region. A 30‐year hindcast was performed and evaluated against observational records consisting of long‐term ground‐based meteorological observations, automatic weather stations, radiosoundings, satellite records, stake measurements and ice cores. Reasonable agreement regarding the surface and upper‐air climate is achieved by the COSMO‐CLM^2 model, comparable to the performance of other state‐of‐the‐art climate models over the AIS. Meteorological variability of the surface climate is adequately simulated, and biases in the radiation and surface mass balance are small. The presented model therefore contributes as a new member to the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment project over the AIS (POLAR‐CORDEX) and the CORDEX‐CORE initiative.

Antarctica↗

Neurosymbolic Hybrid Approach to Driver Collision Warning

There are two main algorithmic approaches to autonomous driving systems: (1) An end-to-end system in which a single deep neural network learns to map sensory input directly into appropriate warning and driving responses. (2) A mediated hybrid recognition system in which a system is created by combining independent modules that detect each semantic feature. While some researchers believe that deep learning can solve any problem, others believe that a more engineered and symbolic approach is needed to cope with complex environments with less data. Deep learning alone has achieved state-of-the-art results in many areas, from complex gameplay to predicting protein structures. In particular, in image classification and recognition, deep learning models have achieved accuracies as high as humans. But sometimes it can be very difficult to debug if the deep learning model doesn't work. Deep learning models can be vulnerable and are very sensitive to changes in data distribution. Generalization can be problematic. It's usually hard to prove why it works or doesn't. Deep learning models can also be vulnerable to adversarial attacks. Here, we combine deep learning-based object recognition and tracking with an adaptive neurosymbolic network agent, called the Non-Axiomatic Reasoning System (NARS), that can adapt to its environment by building concepts based on perceptual sequences. We achieved an improved intersection-over-union (IOU) object recognition performance of 0.65 in the adaptive retraining model compared to IOU 0.31 in the COCO data pre-trained model. We improved the object detection limits using RADAR sensors in a simulated environment, and demonstrated the weaving car detection capability by combining deep learning-based object detection and tracking with a neurosymbolic model.

Wang, Pei↗

DECOVALEX-2023: An international collaboration for advancing the understanding and modeling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geological systems

The DECOVALEX initiative is an international research collaboration (www.decovalex.org), initiated in 1992, for advancing the understanding and modeling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geological systems. DECOVALEX stands for “DEvelopment of COupled Models and VALidation against EXperiments”. The creation of this international initiative was motivated by the recognition that prediction of these coupled effects is an essential part of the performance and safety assessment of geologic disposal systems for radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel. DECOVALEX emphasizes joint analysis and comparative modeling of the complex perturbations and coupled processes in geologic repositories and how these impact long-term performance predictions. The most recent phase of the DECOVALEX Project, here referred to as DECOVALEX-2023, started in early 2020 and ended in late 2023. More than fifty research teams associated with 17 international DECOVALEX partner organizations participated in the comparative evaluation of eight modeling tasks covering a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, geological formations, and coupled processes. This Virtual Special Issue on DECOVALEX-2023 provides an in-depth overview of these collaborative research efforts and how these have advanced the state-of-the-art of understanding and modeling coupled THMC processes. While primarily focused on radioactive waste, much of the work included here has wider application to many geoengineering topics.

Coupled processes↗

Regional-scale, sector-specific evaluation of global CO2 inversion models using aircraft data from the ACT-America project

We use vertical profiles of airborne measurements of CO2 from frontal cases during the summer 2016 Atmospheric Carbon and Transport – America (ACT-America) campaign to evaluate the skill of a set of ten global CO2 inversion models participating in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory – 2 (OCO-2) Model Intercomparison Project (MIP). Model errors and biases (model minus observation) were categorized by region (Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and South), frontal sector (warm or cold), and transport model (predominantly Tracer Model 5 (TM5) and Goddard Earth Observing System – Chemistry (GEOS-Chem)). Overall, the inversions reproduce the general structures of the observed vertical profiles and the enhanced / depleted low-level CO2 in warm / cold sectors, but tend to underestimate the magnitude of the sector difference in each region. In the Midwest and South warm sectors, inversion biases were about 1 ppm above 1500 m AGL, though model spread (quantified by interquartile range) was often even smaller; below 1500 m AGL, model biases were negative and about -2 ppm near the surface. For the Midwest and South cold sectors, models had +2-3 ppm biases below 1500 m AGL, but with comparable model spread. Uniquely, in the Mid-Atlantic there was a consistent difference between TM5 and GEOS-Chem mole fractions for both sectors up to 3000 m AGL (TM5 lower by 2 ppm), on the order of the observation-relative biases. In the MidAtlantic TM5 inversions had negative biases in warm sectors, while GEOS-Chem inversions had positive biases in cold sectors. Possible reasons for the regional variability are discussed.

Gaudet, Brian J.↗

A transient site balance model for atomic layer etching

We present a transient site balance model of plasma-assisted atomic layer etching of silicon (Si) with alternating exposure to chlorine gas (Cl 2 ) and argon ions (Ar + ). Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation results are used to provide parameters for the model. The model couples the dynamics of a top monolayer surface region ('top layer') and a perfectly mixed subsurface region ('mixed layer'). The differential equations describing the rates of change of the Cl coverage in the two layers are transient mass balances. Model predictions include Cl coverages and rates of etching of various species from the surface as a function of Cl 2 or Ar + fluence. The simplified phenomenological model reproduces the MD simulation results well over a range of conditions. Comparing model predictions directly to experimental optical emission spectroscopy data, as reported in a previous paper, provides further evidence of the accuracy of the model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Singular perturbation analysis of the atmospheric orbital plane change problem

A three-state model is presented for the aeroassisted orbital plane change problem. A further model order reduction to a single state model is examined using singular perturbation theory. The optimal solution for this single state model compares favorably with the exact numerical solution using a four-state model; however, a separate boundary layer solution is required to satisfy the terminal constraint on altitude. This, in general, involves the solution of a two-point boundary value problem, but for a two-state model. An approximation is introduced to obtain an analytical control solution for lift and bank angle. Included are numerical simulation results of a guidance law derived from this analysis, along with comparison to earlier work by other researchers.

Calise, A. J.↗

Parameterization of eddy sensible heat transports in a zonally averaged dynamic model of the atmosphere

A Charney-Branscome based parameterization has been tested as a way of representing the eddy sensible heat transports missing in a zonally averaged dynamic model (ZADM) of the atmosphere. The ZADM used is a zonally averaged version of a general circulation model (GCM). The parameterized transports in the ZADM are gaged against the corresponding fluxes explicitly simulated in the GCM, using the same zonally averaged boundary conditions in both models. The Charney-Branscome approach neglects stationary eddies and transient barotropic disturbances and relies on a set of simplifying assumptions, including the linear appoximation, to describe growing transient baroclinic eddies. Nevertheless, fairly satisfactory results are obtained when the parameterization is performed interactively with the model. Compared with noninteractive tests, a very efficient restoring feedback effect between the modeled zonal-mean climate and the parameterized meridional eddy transport is identified.

Genthon, Christophe↗

The Space Block

Ciba-Geigy Corporation's "Space Block," technically known as TDT-177-51 Ren Shape epoxy model block, is a two-foot by two-foot by five- inch plastic block from which master models of the Space Shuttle protective tiles are cut by NC machines. Space Block is made of epoxy resin with low viscosity and slow curing time, enabling the large block to cure uniformly without cracking. Rockwell International uses master models of Shuttle tiles to check accuracy of NC machines accurately by comparing model dimensions with specifications. New epoxy resins are attracting broad interest as a replacement for traditional materials used in modeling auto, aerospace or other parts.

Source record↗

Monte Carlo Model Insights into the Lunar Sodium Exosphere

Sodium in the lunar exosphere is released from the lunar regolith by several mechanisms. These mechanisms include photon stimulated desorption (PSD), impact vaporization, electron stimulated desorption, and ion sputtering. Usually, PSD dominates; however, transient events can temporarily enhance other release mechanisms so that they are dominant. Examples of transient events include meteor showers and coronal mass ejections. The interaction between sodium and the regolith is important in determining the density and spatial distribution of sodium in the lunar exosphere. The temperature at which sodium sticks to the surface is one factor. In addition, the amount of thermal accommodation during the encounter between the sodium atom and the surface affects the exospheric distribution. Finally, the fraction of particles that are stuck when the surface is cold that are rereleased when the surface warms up also affects the exospheric density. In [1], we showed the "ambient" sodium exosphere from Monte Carlo modeling with a fixed source rate and fixed surface interaction parameters. We compared the enhancement when a CME passes the Moon to the ambient conditions. Here, we compare model results to data in order to determine the source rates and surface interaction parameters that provide the best fit of the model to the data.

Hurley, Dana M.↗

Performance Modeling of Urban Air Mobility Vehicles to Support Air Traffic Management Research

The recent emergence of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) vehicles has resulted in a need for flight performance models that enable comprehensive simulation-based research on air traffic management topics such as route structure, scheduling, and separation standards. Successful performance modeling methods exist for a wide range of traditional aircraft designs. However, comparable modeling methods appropriate for UAM vehicles that combine fixed-wing and rotorcraft performance have not yet been established. One challenge to progress has been the lack of available data capturing the performance characteristics and unique flight profiles of these aircraft. This paper describes methods used to generate the required performance data and the development of performance models for UAM vehicles. Included is a review of the energy and power equations often used in developing performance models for traditional aircraft as well as a discussion of their applicability to UAM vehicles. The challenge of generating realistic performance data in over-actuated vehicles transitioning from hover to cruise flight is also addressed through an approach based on objective function optimization. A table-based performance model format adapted to UAM configurations is described, as well as parametric models intended to accompany the performance table to allow detailed modeling of power and fuel consumption during accelerated flight, turning flight, or flight at an arbitrary climb or descent rate. A discussion of future work is also provided, including the need for refinement of UAM performance modeling methods and formats, especially in conjunction with improvements to aerodynamic modeling of vehicles with complex designs where strong interaction effects may dominate important regions of the flight envelope.

Performance Modeling↗

Performance Modeling of Urban Air Mobility Vehicles to Support Air Traffic Management Research

The recent emergence of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) vehicles has resulted in a need for flight performance models that enable comprehensive simulation-based research on air traffic management topics such as route structure, scheduling, and separation standards. Successful performance modeling methods exist for a wide range of traditional aircraft designs. However, comparable modeling methods appropriate for UAM vehicles that combine fixed-wing and rotorcraft performance have not yet been established. One challenge to progress has been the lack of available data capturing the performance characteristics and unique flight profiles of these aircraft. This paper describes methods used to generate the required performance data and the development of performance models for UAM vehicles. Included is a review of the energy and power equations often used in developing performance models for traditional aircraft as well as a discussion of their applicability to UAM vehicles. The challenge of generating realistic performance data in over-actuated vehicles transitioning from hover to cruise flight is also addressed through an approach based on objective function optimization. A table-based performance model format adapted to UAM configurations is described, as well as parametric models intended to accompany the performance table to allow detailed modeling of power and fuel consumption during accelerated flight, turning flight, or flight at an arbitrary climb or descent rate. A discussion of future work is also provided, including the need for refinement of UAM performance modeling methods and formats, especially in conjunction with improvements to aerodynamic modeling of vehicles with complex designs where strong interaction effects may dominate important regions of the flight envelope.

Performance Modeling↗

Nuclear's Role in the U.S. Electricity System: A Multi-Model Inter-Comparison Analysis

A variety of US electric power sector capacity expansion models are used by decision makers and analysts to evaluate competition among generation, transmission, and storage technologies to meeting the demands of the system. CEMs use least-cost optimization to identify optimal portfolios of investments capable of satisfying all specified requirements. While CEMs are a useful tool to inform pathways to meet future needs, projections can differ significantly between tools for apparently similar scenario assumptions. Differences in model structure, scope, and input assumption contribute to this issue. This work compares model response with harmonization between four modeling teams on issues significant to the representation and development of nuclear energy.

capacity expansion model↗