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Overview of the 2010 Carbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)

Substantial uncertainties still exist in the scientific understanding of the possible interactions between urban and natural (biogenic) emissions in the production and transformation of atmospheric aerosol and the resulting impact on climate change. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program's Carbonaceous Aerosol and Radiative Effects Study (CARES) carried out in June 2010 in Central Valley, California, was a comprehensive effort designed to improve this understanding. The primary objective of the field study was to investigate the evolution of secondary organic and black carbon aerosols and their climate-related properties in the Sacramento urban plume as it was routinely transported into the forested Sierra Nevada foothills area. Urban aerosols and trace gases experienced significant physical and chemical transformations as they mixed with the reactive biogenic hydrocarbons emitted from the forest. Two heavily-instrumented ground sites - one within the Sacramento urban area and another about 40 km to the northeast in the foothills area - were set up to characterize the evolution of meteorological variables, trace gases, aerosol precursors, aerosol size, composition, and climaterelated properties in freshly polluted and "aged" urban air. On selected days, the DOE G-1 aircraft was deployed to make similar measurements upwind and across the evolving Sacramento plume in the morning and again in the afternoon. The NASA B-200 aircraft, carrying remote sensing instruments, was also deployed to characterize the vertical and horizontal distribution of aerosols and aerosol optical properties within and around the plume. This overview provides: (a) the scientific background and motivation for the study, (b) the operational and logistical information pertinent to the execution of the study, (c) an overview of key observations and initial findings from the aircraft and ground-based sampling platforms, and (d) a roadmap of planned data analyses and focused modeling efforts that will facilitate the integration of new knowledge into improved representations of key aerosol processes and properties in climate models.

aerosols↗

Crew Field Notes: A New Tool for Planetary Surface Exploration

The Desert Research and Technology Studies (DRATS) field tests of 2010 focused on the simultaneous operation of two rovers, a historical first. The complexity and data volume of two rovers operating simultaneously presented significant operational challenges for the on-site Mission Control Center, including the real time science support function. The latter was split into two "tactical" back rooms, one for each rover, that supported the real time traverse activities; in addition, a "strategic" science team convened overnight to synthesize the day's findings, and to conduct the strategic forward planning of the next day or days as detailed in [1, 2]. Current DRATS simulations and operations differ dramatically from those of Apollo, including the most evolved Apollo 15-17 missions, due to the advent of digital technologies. Modern digital still and video cameras, combined with the capability for real time transmission of large volumes of data, including multiple video streams, offer the prospect for the ground based science support room(s) in Mission Control to witness all crew activities in unprecedented detail and in real time. It was not uncommon during DRATS 2010 that each tactical science back room simultaneously received some 4-6 video streams from cameras mounted on the rover or the crews' backpacks. Some of the rover cameras are controllable PZT (pan, zoom, tilt) devices that can be operated by the crews (during extensive drives) or remotely by the back room (during EVAs). Typically, a dedicated "expert" and professional geologist in the tactical back room(s) controls, monitors and analyses a single video stream and provides the findings to the team, commonly supported by screen-saved images. It seems obvious, that the real time comprehension and synthesis of the verbal descriptions, extensive imagery, and other information (e.g. navigation data; time lines etc) flowing into the science support room(s) constitute a fundamental challenge to future mission operations: how can one analyze, comprehend and synthesize -in real time- the enormous data volume coming to the ground? Real time understanding of all data is needed for constructive interaction with the surface crews, and it becomes critical for the strategic forward planning process.

Horz, Friedrich↗

Sonic Booms in Atmospheric Turbulence (SonicBAT): The Influence of Turbulence on Shaped Sonic Booms

The objectives of the Sonic Booms in Atmospheric Turbulence (SonicBAT) Program were to develop and validate, via research flight experiments under a range of realistic atmospheric conditions, one numeric turbulence model research code and one classic turbulence model research code using traditional N-wave booms in the presence of atmospheric turbulence, and to apply these models to assess the effects of turbulence on the levels of shaped sonic booms predicted from low boom aircraft designs. The SonicBAT program has successfully investigated sonic boom turbulence effects through the execution of flight experiments at two NASA centers, Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC), collecting a comprehensive set of acoustic and atmospheric turbulence data that were used to validate the numeric and classic turbulence models developed. The validated codes were incorporated into the PCBoom sonic boom prediction software and used to estimate the effect of turbulence on the levels of shaped sonic booms associated with several low boom aircraft designs. The SonicBAT program was a four year effort that consisted of turbulence model development and refinement throughout the entire period as well as extensive flight test planning that culminated with the two research flight tests being conducted in the second and third years of the program. The SonicBAT team, led by Wyle, includes partners from the Pennsylvania State University, Lockheed Martin, Gulfstream Aerospace, Boeing, Eagle Aeronautics, Technical & Business Systems, and the Laboratory of Fluid Mechanics and Acoustics (France). A number of collaborators, including the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, also participated by supporting the experiments with human and equipment resources at their own expense. Three NASA centers, AFRC, Langley Research Center (LaRC), and KSC were essential to the planning and conduct of the experiments. The experiments involved precision flight of either an F-18A or F-18B executing steady, level passes at supersonic airspeeds in a turbulent atmosphere to create sonic boom signatures that had been distorted by turbulence. The flights spanned a range of atmospheric turbulence conditions at NASA Armstrong and Kennedy in order to provide a variety of conditions for code validations. The SonicBAT experiments at both sites were designed to capture simultaneous F-18A or F-18B onboard flight instrumentation data, high fidelity ground based and airborne acoustic data, surface and upper air meteorological data, and additional meteorological data from ultrasonic anemometers and SODARs to determine the local atmospheric turbulence and boundary layer height.

Bradley, Kevin A.↗

U.S. Effort Support to Examinations at Fukushima - Meeting Notes with Updated Information Requests (FY2020)

Much is still not known about the end-state of core materials in each unit that was operating on March 11, 2011 at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (Daiichi). Information obtained from Daiichi is required to inform Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) activities, improving the ability of the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Incorporated (TEPCO Holdings) to characterize potential hazards and to ensure the safety of workers involved with cleanup activities. This document, which has been updated to include Fiscal Year 2020 (FY2020) information, summarizes results from a U.S. effort to review Daiichi information and extract insights to enhance the safety of existing and future nuclear power plant designs. This U.S. effort, which was initiated in 2014 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), is completed by a group of experts in reactor safety and plant operations that identify examination needs and evaluate recent Daiichi examination data to address these needs. Since its inception, comprehensive annual reports were issued that document significant safety insights being obtained in areas of special emphasis: system and component performance, radionuclide surveys and sampling, debris end-state location, combustible gas effects, and plant operations and maintenance. In addition to reducing uncertainties related to severe accident modeling progression, these insights have and continue to be used to update guidance for severe accident prevention, mitigation, and emergency planning. Reduced uncertainties in modeling the events at Daiichi improve the realism of reactor safety evaluations that inform future D&D activities. For FY2020, it was decided that the program would gain more benefit from a more concise report that emphasizes new information and insights that affect prior findings and recommendations from the U.S. experts participating in this effort. A key aspect of prior U.S. efforts, the updated list of information requests, is included in this letter report to ensure that they are transmitted to organizations within Japan. In addition, findings and associated recommendations are provided regarding information presented by TEPCO Holdings, Nuclear Damage Compensation and Decommissioning Facilitation Corporation (NDF), and the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). This letter report also continues to emphasize how information obtained from the affected reactors at Daiichi has been and will continue to be used to update severe accident management strategies, improve maintenance activities (especially in areas of radiation protection) and reduce uncertainties in systems analysis code models. In addition, recommendations are included that would expand the use of this information to provide insights regarding maintenance, radiation protection, design, and siting activities of existing and new reactors.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Reanalysis of Water Withdrawal for Irrigation, Electric Power, and Public Supply Sectors in the Conterminous United States, 1950–2016

Accurately measuring water use by the economy is essential for developing reliable models of water resource availability. Indeed, these models rely on retrospective analyses that provide insights into shifting human population demands and adaptions to water shortages. However, accurate, methodologically consistent, empirically authentic, and spatiotemporally comprehensive historical datasets for water withdrawals are scarce. Herein, we present a reanalysis of annual resolution (1950–2016) historical data set on irrigation, electric power, and public supply water withdrawal within the conterminous United States (US) at the county-level, and, for power plants, at the site-level. To estimate electric power water use, we synthesized a historically comprehensive list of generators and historic patterns in generation across fuels, prime movers, and cooling technologies. Irrigation water use estimation required building a crop-demand model that utilized historical information on irrigated acreage for crops and golf courses, stage-specific crop water demand, and climate information. To estimate public water supply use, we developed a random forest model constructed from information on population, infrastructure, climate, and land cover. These estimates generally agree with total county and state water use information provided by the US Geological Survey (USGS) water use circular and estimates generated from independent studies for specific years. However, we also observed discrepancies between our estimates and USGS data that appear to be caused by inconsistencies in the methods used by the USGS's primary data sources at the state level over decades of data collection, highlighting the importance of reanalysis to yield spatiotemporally consistent and intercomparable estimates of water use.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The 5 Cs of Agrivoltaic Success Factors in the United States: Lessons from the InSPIRE Research Study

The concept of agrivoltaics (combining agriculture and solar photovoltaics technologies on the same land in novel configurations) has emerged as an approach to mitigate conflicts between solar and agricultural activities by providing mutual benefits and added values to each sector. The U.S. Department of Energy has supported agrivoltaics research since 2015 through its Innovative Solar Practices Integrated with Rural Economies and Ecosystems (InSPIRE) research project (National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2022). The InSPIRE project is the most comprehensive coordinated research effort on agrivoltaics in the United States and has examined opportunities and tradeoffs at over 25 sites across the country that span crop production, pollinator habitat, ecosystem services, animal husbandry, and d. Integrating research sites with active commercial agricultural operations can introduce unique challenges for conducting research. This synthesis aims to highlight the technical and non-technical insights from InSPIRE agrivoltaic field research sites from 2015-2021 to support i) appropriate deployment of agrivoltaic projects; ii) more successful research on agrivoltaics; and iii) more effective partnerships on agrivoltaic projects. The synthesized lessons discussed here are focused less on specific case study outcomes (i.e., the percent change in crop yield in an agrivoltaics configuration), and instead more on the elements that enable and facilitate agrivoltaics projects to be installed and operated along with research to be conducted at those sites. We find that there are some insights that are applicable across all types of agrivoltaic projects, while ecosystem service projects and crop production agrivoltaic projects can often have other unique considerations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Excavation Volume Growth Factors at Environmental Remediation Sites - 20318

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) manages numerous environmental remediation projects in accordance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act, otherwise known as CERCLA. These include projects for the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Utilizing the CERCLA framework to address these projects requires detailed cost estimates and a significant portion of costs are associated with the volume of material to be excavated and that material's final disposition. Accordingly, understanding the expected volumes and uncertainty associated with those volumes is vital to project cost estimating. These estimates are completed at various stages of the CERCLA process, thus the project team has varying degrees of information available from which to develop these estimates depending on how far along the project is. Understanding the factors contributing to volume growth (increase in volume of material from that originally estimated) is a crucial element to determining volume and cost uncertainty. This paper presents a case study of a FUSRAP site which involves excavation and offsite disposal of contaminated soils from complex commercial, industrial, and residential properties. Original volume estimates were compared to post excavation volumes on a property by property basis. Reasons for differences are determined along with magnitude of impacts to cost estimating. For both residential and commercial property types, volume estimating factors, uncertainty considerations, and methods to account for each are discussed with emphasis on volume growth considerations. Cost estimating model input considerations are discussed with specific emphasis on accounting for volume uncertainty at the Feasibility Study (FS) phase of CERCLA. Underestimating or overestimating costs at the FS phase has repercussions under CERCLA that may impact project close out or completion schedule. Discussions presented will be helpful to both reviewers and preparers of cost estimates involving excavations. Additionally, project planners may be able to use the information to plan for volume growth contingencies. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Strategic Siting of Direct Air Capture Facilities in the United States

Direct air capture (DAC) systems that capture carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) directly from the atmosphere are garnering considerable attention for their potential role as negative emission technologies in achieving net-zero CO 2 emission goals. Common DAC technologies are based either on liquid–solvent (L-DAC) or solid–sorbent (S-DAC) to capture CO 2 . A comprehensive multi-factor comparative economic analysis of the deployment of L-DAC and S-DAC facilities across various United States (U.S.) cities is presented in this paper. The analysis considers the influence of various factors on the favorability of DAC deployment, including local climatic conditions such as temperature, humidity, and CO 2 concentrations; the availability of energy sources to power the DAC system; and costs for the transport and storage of the captured CO 2 along with the consideration of the regional market and policy drivers. The deployment analysis in over 70 continental U.S. cities shows that L-DAC and S-DAC complement each other spatially, as their performance and operational costs vary in different climates. L-DAC is more suited to the hot, humid Southeast, while S-DAC is preferrable in the colder, drier Rocky Mountain region. Strategic deployment based on regional conditions and economics is essential for promoting the commercial adoptability of DAC, which is a critical technology to meet the CO 2 reduction targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Lighting Condition Analysis for Mars Moon Phobos

A manned mission to Phobos may be an important precursor and catalyst for the human exploration of Mars, as it will fully demonstrate the technologies for a successful Mars mission. A comprehensive understanding of Phobos' environment such as lighting condition and gravitational acceleration are essential to the mission success. The lighting condition is one of many critical factors for landing zone selection, vehicle power subsystem design, and surface mobility vehicle path planning. Due to the orbital characteristic of Phobos, the lighting condition will change dramatically from one Martian season to another. This study uses high fidelity computer simulation to investigate the lighting conditions, specifically the solar radiation flux over the surface, on Phobos. Ephemeris data from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) DE405 model was used to model the state of the Sun, the Earth, and Mars. An occultation model was developed to simulate Phobos' self-shadowing and its solar eclipses by Mars. The propagated Phobos' state was compared with data from JPL's Horizon system to ensure the accuracy of the result. Results for Phobos lighting condition over one Martian year are presented in this paper, which include length of solar eclipse, average solar radiation intensity, surface exposure time, total maximum solar energy, and total surface solar energy (constrained by incident angle). The results show that Phobos' solar eclipse time changes throughout the Martian year with the maximum eclipse time occurring during the Martian spring and fall equinox and no solar eclipse during the Martian summer and winter solstice. Solar radiation intensity is close to minimum at the summer solstice and close to maximum at the winter solstice. Total surface exposure time is longer near the north pole and around the anti- Mars point. Total maximum solar energy is larger around the anti-Mars point. Total surface solar energy is higher around the anti-Mars point near the equator. The results from this study and others like it will be important in determining landing site selection, vehicle system design and mission operations for the human exploration of Phobos and subsequently Mars.

Li, Zu Qun↗

Assessing Cost-Optimal Battery Energy and Solar-Plus-Storage Systems for Federal Customers: A Nationwide Assessment: Preprint

Prior research has identified that the financial viability of behind-the-meter battery energy storage systems is heavily dependent on technology cost, utility rate structure, energy consumption patterns, and co-deployment with synergistic technologies like solar photovoltaics (PV), among other factors. This study builds on existing research by comprehensively evaluating the economics of battery energy storage systems (BESS) and solar-plus-storage systems for a reference office building at 755 reference sites under 834 utility rates, and four storage capital cost scenarios. Results indicate that even with dramatic cost reductions, BESS is likely to be cost-effective only under utility rates that include demand charges, and possibly include time-of-use (TOU) pricing as well. Even under these utility rates, BESS systems provide marginal savings, and office building operators are unlikely to deploy the technology for cost savings alone. Solar-plus-storage systems provide more savings than BESS and allow for larger economic storage capacities. Solar-plus-storage provides compelling savings opportunities at baseline prices, and even at capital costs 25% higher than baseline. Solar-plus-storage is most effective where there are demand charges and energy pricing schemes include TOU pricing, or where electricity is expensive (at least $0.30/kWh). Our case studies illustrate that the presence of demand charges, even at similar energy costs, can be the deciding factor in BESS and solar-plus-storage viability. The findings and maps from this assessment may be of use to planners, building owners, and developers looking for potentially economic storage opportunities.

battery energy storage systems↗

An Examination of the Hydropower Licensing and Federal Authorization Process

Site-permitting and regulation are necessary to ensure hydropower projects (both original and relicensed) comply with statutory requirements and address multiple stakeholder priorities that consider a range of factors, including water quality, species protection, cultural resource impacts, and recreation. However, the time involved in acquiring a license for an individual hydropower project can be highly variable by project, leading to increased project costs, financial risks, and uncertainties. In part, this variability is the result of a regulatory structure that has evolved over time to include multiple approvals and compliance requirements administered by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), U.S. Army Corp of Engineers (USACE), federal land management agencies, federal and state resource agencies, and Indian Tribes. Ultimately, the time, benefits, costs, and risks to developers associated with hydropower regulatory processes and/or the preparation (e.g., studies) required for regulatory agency review are not well documented or synthesized in the public domain, which may increase uncertainty and variability within the process. This report addresses these needs by presenting results of a comprehensive examination of hydropower licensing including quantitative and qualitative analyses of timelines, causal factors, and their combined effect on risk and costs to developers.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Considerations for Managing DOE Standard Canisters within an Over-canister as Part of an Integrated Waste Management System

To better enable informed decision making regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the Integrated Waste Management Program within the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) has been sponsoring the research into a comprehensive integrated waste management system (IWMS) that considers all major back-end aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). An important aspect of the IWMS is DOE-managed SNF. DOE and its predecessor agencies have generated, transported, received, stored, and reprocessed SNF at DOE facilities nationwide, and DOE is responsible for managing the SNF currently in its possession. These fuels come from a wide range of reactor types that employ various cladding materials, fuel materials, and enrichments. To enable interim, road-ready dry storage (RRDS) of the wide variety of SNF types found in the DOE inventory, a standardized canister system (i.e., the DOE Standard Canister) was proposed. This robust, welded canister system is designed to confine radionuclides, prevent criticality by precluding content moderation, and satisfy other requirements as part of a larger storage, transportation, and disposal system. While SNF has yet to be loaded into a DOE Standard Canister, DOE Standard Canister designs were included in past storage facility and disposal facility design licensing endeavors. In a renewed effort to evaluate packaging SNF at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in a RRDS configuration, researchers are planning the RRDS Packaging Demonstration. This demonstration is supplemented by analytical structural, criticality, and material compatibility evaluations that support management of SNF in DOE Standard Canisters, taking advantage of past analysis work to the extent possible. One of the largest differences between the current Packaging Demonstration and past analytical evaluations is the inclusion of an over-canister containing multiple DOE Standard Canisters. For the Packaging Demonstration, DOE Standard Canisters loaded with SNF are planned to be placed in a larger diameter over-canister. The sealed over-canister could then be placed in a storage overpack for onsite storage, or in a transportation overpack for shipment to an offsite storage location or disposal site once one becomes available. This paper examines the relevant considerations and provides a preliminary evaluation of integrating the over-canister configuration into the storage, transportation, and disposal processes of the overall waste management system. For storage and transportation, the over-canister can be considered analogous to a multi-purpose canister (MPC) for commercial SNF. For disposal, the DOE Standard Canisters could be removed from the over-canister and placed in a co-disposal waste package with canisters containing vitrified HLW similar to configurations examined previously, or the sealed over-canisters might be capable of direct disposal in a waste package.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Considerations for Managing DOE Standard Canisters within an Over-canister as Part of an Integrated Waste Management System PPT

To better enable informed decision making regarding the back-end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the Integrated Waste Management Program within the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) has been sponsoring research into a comprehensive integrated waste management system (IWMS) that considers all major back-end aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). An important aspect of the IWMS is DOE-managed Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF). DOE and its predecessor agencies have generated, transported, received, stored, and reprocessed SNF at DOE facilities nationwide, and DOE is responsible for managing the SNF currently in its possession. These fuels come from a wide range of reactor types that employ various cladding materials, fuel materials, and enrichments. To enable interim, road-ready dry storage (RRDS) of the wide variety of SNF types found in the DOE inventory, a standardized canister system (i.e., the DOE Standard Canister) was proposed for the packaging demonstration. This robust, welded canister system is designed to confine radionuclides, prevent criticality by precluding content moderation, and satisfy other requirements as part of a larger storage, transportation, and disposal system. While SNF has yet to be loaded into a DOE Standard Canister, DOE Standard Canister designs were included in past storage facility and disposal facility design licensing endeavors. In a renewed effort to evaluate packaging SNF at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in a RRDS configuration, researchers are planning the RRDS Packaging Demonstration. This demonstration is supplemented by analytical structural, criticality, and material compatibility evaluations that support management of SNF in DOE Standard Canisters, taking advantage of past analysis work to the extent possible. One of the largest differences between the current Packaging Demonstration and past analytical evaluations is the inclusion of an over-canister containing multiple DOE Standard Canisters. For the Packaging Demonstration, DOE Standard Canisters loaded with SNF are planned to be placed in a larger diameter over-canister. The sealed over-canister could then be placed in a storage overpack for onsite storage, or in a transportation overpack for shipment to an offsite storage location or disposal site once one becomes available. This paper examines the relevant considerations and provides a preliminary evaluation of integrating the over-canister configuration into the storage, transportation, and disposal processes of the overall waste management system. For storage and transportation, the over-canister can be considered analogous to a multi-purpose canister (MPC) for commercial SNF. For disposal, the DOE Standard Canisters could be removed from the over-canister and placed in a co-disposal waste package with canisters containing vitrified high-level radioactive waste (HLW) similar to configurations examined previously, or the sealed over-canisters might be capable of direct disposal in a waste package.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A Comprehensive Framework for Valuation of Ecosystem Services in the Context of Hydropower

While models to value ecosystem services exist, they suffer from a lack of “portability” in the sense that a single modelling framework developed for one site cannot be imported and applied to another. Additionally, benefit estimations are often fragmented, incomplete, incomparable, and in heterogenous metrics, thus preventing aggregation to arrive at one comprehensive value. In the context of hydropower, the methods, as well as the metrics used to value the associated ecosystem services, vary between stakeholders (e.g., competing water users, agencies, etc.), detracting from the ability to assess the total value of a hydropower project, water management schemes, or comparing value between competing water users. Further, current methods to value water neglect non-market ecosystem services’ values by failing to account for externalities, resulting in misallocation of costs (e.g., obligatory stakeholder payments for water use) and misinterpretation of hydropower benefits. The benefit-cost ratios in hydropower development are often incomplete because non-market benefits are excluded (e.g., benefits, such as fish habitat resiliency and agricultural water reliability, derived from hydropower development). An approach to enable consistent, standardized hydropower benefit-cost analyses does not currently exist. This paper conceptualizes a methodology to standardize ecosystem services valuation in the context of hydropower projects through the integration of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s existing Final Ecosystem Goods and Services Classification System framework and economic valuation techniques, and demonstrates the applicability of this methodology through a limited proof-of-concept application (the New Waddell Plant, a pumped hydroelectric energy storage facility in Phoenix, AZ). The beauty of our proposed framework lies in its ability to be imported and applied to any other pumped storage facility after accounting for site-specific features.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Web-Based Tools for Data-Informed Remedy Optimization: Software Theory and User Guide

This report documents the development and application of two web-based decision-support tools for pump-and-treat (P&T) groundwater remediation systems: PTOLEMY (Pump-and-Treat Optimized Location Evaluation to Maximize Yields) and OPTIMA (Optimization for Pump-and-Treat Implementation, Management, & Assessment). These tools enhance remedy design and management by leveraging advanced computational methods – specifically deep learning and multi-objective optimization – within a user-friendly platform. By integrating data-driven models with established hydrogeological knowledge, PTOLEMY and OPTIMA enable more efficient evaluation of well placement and operational strategies, helping site managers balance multiple remediation objectives under complex conditions. Both tools are implemented as modules within the SOCRATES (Suite Of Comprehensive Rapid Analysis Tools for Environmental Sites) web platform, which provides data access, visualization, and analytics to support remedy optimization across sites in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management complex. PTOLEMY is a rapid screening module designed to identify promising locations for new extraction wells. It employs a multi-channel three-dimensional convolutional neural network (MC3D-CNN) trained on high-fidelity simulation data to predict the relative performance (in terms of contaminant mass recovery) of potential well sites. Through an interactive web interface, PTOLEMY visualizes the probability of high performance across a site, highlighting areas where an extraction well is likely to yield above-threshold contaminant removal over a multi-year period. PTOLEMY’s map-based displays and exportable results support transparent communication of screening analyses. By focusing attention on the most favorable candidate locations, the tool augments traditional engineering judgment and physics-based modeling, providing a data informed basis for subsequent detailed evaluations. OPTIMA is a multi objective optimization module designed to find wellfield layouts and operating schedules that meet various cleanup goals. It quickly evaluates thousands of candidate setups – combinations of well locations, timing, and rates – and returns a small set of best trade-off options for comparison. At its core, OPTIMA uses a U-Net-based surrogate model – a deep-learning emulator of a groundwater flow and transport simulator – to dramatically accelerate scenario evaluations. Coupling this fast surrogate with the NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II) evolutionary algorithm, OPTIMA explores a wide decision space of well locations and schedules to identify Pareto-optimal solutions that trade off key objectives (e.g., minimizing cleanup time, maximizing contaminant mass removal, and minimizing plume extent). The tool outputs a family of optimal configurations and visualizes their trade-offs (Pareto frontiers of cleanup metrics and maps of optimized well placements). Site managers can use these results to understand the range of viable strategies and to select candidate designs for more detailed verification. OPTIMA is currently under active development and not yet fully released; this guide provides early documentation to support planning and gather user feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

COGIHTO: Comprehensive Geothermal Integrated HVAC Retrofits in Disadvantaged Communities

Geothermal heating and cooling (GHC) systems offer one of the most efficient approaches to provide space conditioning and water heating in buildings. Due to the relatively stable temperature of the ground year-round, these systems can provide an efficient solution to decarbonize heating systems. Yet this technology has faced limited market adoption due to its high first cost. This project seeks to address this barrier by designing a community GHC system at a public housing development in New York, taking advantage of load diversity (in terms of the timing and amount of heating / cooling used per person) that a larger community offers to reduce the size and thus first cost of a GHC system. Project success would result in societal benefit from reduced energy and fossil fuel use, reduced local emissions, and improved comfort, which would positively impact the health and well-being this community. This report presents the findings from Phase 1 project supported by the Department of Energy’s Geothermal Technologies Office and includes the technical design of a GHC at a public housing development in New York. To support the success of a potential deployment of a GHC system, the team conducted community engagement and prepared an assessment of the local workforce needs. The project team, led by EPRI, considered a subset of NYCHA housing developments that were previously identified by NYCHA as suitable for GHC retrofits. This report presents the site selection criteria the team developed and the overall score assigned to each of the eight developments considered. One site was selected for focus of the technical design: Stapleton Houses in Staten Island, a mid-size development with roughly 700 apartments across 6 buildings. The site has an existing hot water hydronic loop served by natural gas boilers for space heating and water heating. The technical design partner assessed baseline energy consumption at the site and established thermal models of the apartment buildings to assist in the design. The team considered several GHC system configurations and selected a hybrid geothermal design fed from water-source heat pumps with auxiliary gas boilers in a central plant. This design best leveraged the existing site configuration and minimized costs due to additional electrical infrastructure upgrades. The report also details the feedback received from community engagement efforts and the findings from the workforce needs assessment and workforce transition plan. Members of the site maintenance staff and the resident advisory council were interviewed for their input and feedback about both the site’s existing heating/cooling infrastructure and how a construction project would impact resident life. This feedback was taken into consideration when completing the geothermal system design. Research was conducted into existing workforce development opportunities available to NYCHA residents. A workforce development plan was established using information from NYCHA’s resident economic empowerment and sustainability group, along with training material and curriculum from the International Ground Source Heat Pump Association (IGSHPA).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗