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NASA NTRS1994

Strategic workload management and decision biases in aviation

Thirty pilots flew three simulated landing approaches under conditions of low, medium, and high workload. Workload conditions were created by varying time pressure and external communications requirements. Our interest was in how the pilots strategically managed or adapted to the increasing workload. We independently assessed the pilot's ranking of the priority of different discrete tasks during the approach and landing. Pilots were found to sacrifice some aspects of primary flight control as workload increased. For discrete tasks, increasing workload increased the amount of time in performing the high priority tasks, decreased the time in performing those of lowest priority, and did not affect duration of performance episodes or optimality of scheduling of tasks of any priority level. Individual differences analysis revealed that high-performing subjects scheduled discrete tasks earlier in the flight and shifted more often between different activities.

Raby, Mireille↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Application of the CATNLF Design Method to a Transonic Transport Empennage Using CDISC

A novel Crossflow Attenuated Natural Laminar Flow (CATNLF) design method has been developed to achieve laminar flow on aircraft empennage at transonic flight conditions. This approach has been applied to the design of a nonlifting vertical tail using CDISC, a knowledgebased aerodynamic design tool developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. A horizontal tail was also designed using an enhanced CATNLF design approach for low-lift components. CDISC was coupled with USM3D-ME, a Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics solver. Stability and transition software was used to determine the laminar extent on the surfaces. Results indicate laminar flow can be sustained at midcruise conditions to about x/c=0.40 on the vertical tail and as much as x/c=0.65 on the horizontal tail lower surface. Transonic longitudinal off-design analysis indicates minimal change in the laminar extent. However, nonzero sideslip angles at transonic conditions can cause premature transition relative to the midcruise condition.

Brent W. Pomeroy↗

NASA NTRS2022

Look-up Table Approach for Uncertainty Determination for Operational Vicarious Calibration of Earth Imaging Sensors

Understanding the uncertainty of a vicarious calibration is essential for any application to Earth imaging sensors. The Radiometric Calibration Network provides SI-traceable spectral top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance from a network of ground sites and uses a look-up table (LUT) approach for uncertainty determination. The uncertainty LUT was derived using Monte Carlo techniques applied to the relevant solar geometry, surface, and atmospheric variables. While surface reflectance is typically the dominant uncertainty source, atmospheric contributions do play an important role, depending upon the exact scenario and conditions. This approach allows knowledge of TOA reflectance uncertainty to within 0.5%.

Brian N. Wenny↗

NASA NTRS2015

Stage-by-Stage and Parallel Flow Path Compressor Modeling for a Variable Cycle Engine, NASA Advanced Air Vehicles Program - Commercial Supersonic Technology Project - AeroServoElasticity

This paper covers the development of stage-by-stage and parallel flow path compressor modeling approaches for a Variable Cycle Engine. The stage-by-stage compressor modeling approach is an extension of a technique for lumped volume dynamics and performance characteristic modeling. It was developed to improve the accuracy of axial compressor dynamics over lumped volume dynamics modeling. The stage-by-stage compressor model presented here is formulated into a parallel flow path model that includes both axial and rotational dynamics. This is done to enable the study of compressor and propulsion system dynamic performance under flow distortion conditions. The approaches utilized here are generic and should be applicable for the modeling of any axial flow compressor design accurate time domain simulations. The objective of this work is as follows. Given the parameters describing the conditions of atmospheric disturbances, and utilizing the derived formulations, directly compute the transfer function poles and zeros describing these disturbances for acoustic velocity, temperature, pressure, and density. Time domain simulations of representative atmospheric turbulence can then be developed by utilizing these computed transfer functions together with the disturbance frequencies of interest.

Compressor Modeling Modeling↗

NASA NTRS2016

Refined AFC-Enabled High-Lift System Integration Study

A prior trade study established the effectiveness of using Active Flow Control (AFC) for reducing the mechanical complexities associated with a modern high-lift system without sacrificing aerodynamic performance at low-speed flight conditions representative of takeoff and landing. The current technical report expands on this prior work in two ways: (1) a refined conventional high-lift system based on the NASA Common Research Model (CRM) is presented that is more representative of modern commercial transport aircraft in terms of stall characteristics and maximum Lift/Drag (L/D) ratios at takeoff and landing-approach flight conditions; and (2) the design trade space for AFC-enabled high-lift systems is expanded to explore a wider range of options for improving their efficiency. The refined conventional high-lift CRM (HL-CRM) concept features leading edge slats and slotted trailing edge flaps with Fowler motion. For the current AFC-enhanced high lift system trade study, the refined conventional high-lift system is simplified by substituting simply-hinged trailing edge flaps for the slotted single-element flaps with Fowler motion. The high-lift performance of these two high-lift CRM variants is established using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solutions to the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. These CFD assessments identify the high-lift performance that needs to be recovered through AFC to have the CRM variant with the lighter and mechanically simpler high-lift system match the performance of the conventional high-lift system. In parallel to the conventional high-lift concept development, parametric studies using CFD guided the development of an effective and efficient AFC-enabled simplified high-lift system. This included parametric trailing edge flap geometry studies addressing the effects of flap chord length and flap deflection. As for the AFC implementation, scaling effects (i.e., wind-tunnel versus full-scale flight conditions) are addressed, as are AFC architecture aspects such as AFC unit placement, number AFC units, operating pressures, mass flow rates, and steady versus unsteady AFC applications. These efforts led to the development of a novel traversing AFC actuation concept which is efficient in that it reduces the AFC mass flow requirements by as much as an order of magnitude compared to previous AFC technologies, and it is predicted to be effective in driving the aerodynamic performance of a mechanical simplified high-lift system close to that of the reference conventional high-lift system. Conceptual system integration studies were conducted for the AFC-enhanced high-lift concept applied to a NASA Environmentally Responsible Aircraft (ERA) reference configuration, the so-called ERA-0003 concept. The results from these design integration assessments identify overall system performance improvement opportunities over conventional high-lift systems that suggest the viability of further technology maturation efforts for AFC-enabled high lift flap systems. To that end, technical challenges are identified associated with the application of AFC-enabled high-lift systems to modern transonic commercial transports for future technology maturation efforts.

Hartwich, Peter M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Non-Invasive Electrode Impedance Estimation for Optimized Charge Profile Parameterization of Lithium-Ion Batteries

This work presents a non-invasive method for parameterizing a physically motivated equivalent circuit model of lithium-ion batteries using operando electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and time-domain data. The proposed model consists exclusively of linear circuit elements, enabling computationally efficient simulation and real-time implementation on battery management system chips. By integrating frequency- and time-domain measurements, the model accurately estimates internal states such as the negative electrode potential, achieving a root mean square error of 12.3 mV during fast charging validation. Parameterization requires only rate tests with sinusoidal perturbations at three different ambient temperatures, making the approach experimentally accessible. The model reveals key insights into battery behavior, including rate-dependent overpotentials primarily governed by charge transfer kinetics at the positive electrode, and temperature-dependent impedance contributions from both charge transfer and solid-state diffusion processes. Validation using reference electrodes confirms the model’s ability to detect lithium plating onset and reproduce impedance behavior across a wide range of operating conditions. The approach enables in situ optimization of fast charging profiles and lays the foundation for future extensions incorporating aging effects and plating dynamics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantitative characterization of gradient microstructures: A study on friction stir spot processing of pure cobalt

Heterogeneous microstructures in polycrystalline metals can enhance the strength and ductility, outperforming homogeneous structures of similar composition. This study investigates deformed cobalt via friction stir spot processing with varying dwell times to uncover the effects of plastic deformation and heat generation on the formation of morphological, phase, and grain boundary character gradients. A new approach to quantify the morphological gradients in materials, which describes grain morphology in terms of density followed by parametric regression, enables direct quantification of processing depth and gradient sharpness. Results show that longer processing times increase the steepness of morphological gradients and reduce the deformation depth for friction stir spot processing with low plunge depths and high tool rotational speeds. The amount of retained FCC is increased in the shorter processing conditions, primarily due to refined grain size, increased defect content, and reduced heat generation. Crystallographic texture analysis of the HCP phase indicated a dominant B-fiber described by (0001) ∥ shear plane normal in the extreme processing conditions and the formation of a P-fiber, shear direction ∥ ⟨11$\bar2$0⟩ for intermediate dwell times. The texture of the FCC phase for low processing times was a C texture {100}⟨011⟩ where longer processing times were dominated by a [001] fiber texture with a main {110}⟨100⟩ orientation and emergence of a slight [111] fiber in the longest processing condition. The approaches outlined in this work give insight into quantifying gradients and improve the understanding of highly deformed cobalt.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1977

Computation of nonlinear one-dimensional waves in near-sonic flows

A nonlinear analysis is developed for sound propagation in a variable area duct in which the mean flow approaches choking conditions. A quasi-one-dimensional model is used; results of the standard linear theory are compared with the nonlinear results to assess the significance of the nonlinear terms. The nonlinear analysis represents the acoustic disturbance as a sum of interacting harmonics. Numerical results show that the basic signal is unaffected by the presence of higher harmonics if the throat Mach number is not too large, but as the Mach number approaches unity more harmonics are needed to describe the acoustic propagation. The strong interactions among harmonics in the numerical results occur in a region which is generally consistent with the nonlinear inner-expansion region of Callegari and Myers.

Nayfeh, A. H.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Stage-by-Stage and Parallel Flow Path Compressor Modeling for a Variable Cycle Engine

Parallel Flow Path modeling↗

NASA NTRS1991

The turbomachine blading design using S2-S1 approach

The boundary conditions corresponding to the design problem when the blades being simulated by the bound vorticity distribution are presented. The 3D flow is analyzed by the two steps S2 - S1 approach. In the first step, the number of blades is supposed to be infinite, the vortex distribution is transformed into an axisymmetric one, so that the flow field can be analyzed in a meridional plane. The thickness distribution of the blade producing the flow channel striction is taken into account by the modification of metric tensor in the continuity equation. Using the meridional stream function to define the flow field, the mass conservation is satisfied automatically. The governing equation is deduced from the relation between the azimuthal component of the vorticity and the meridional velocity. The value of the azimuthal component of the vorticity is provided by the hub to shroud equilibrium condition. This step leads to the determination of the axisymmetric stream sheets as well as the approximate camber surface of the blade. In the second step, the finite number of blades is taken into account, the inverse problem corresponding to the blade to blade flow confined in each stream sheet is analyzed. The momentum equation implies that the free vortex of the absolute velocity must be tangential to the stream sheet. The governing equation for the blade to blade flow stream function is deduced from this condition. At the beginning, the upper and the lower surfaces of the blades are created from the camber surface obtained from the first step with the assigned thickness distribution. The bound vorticity distribution and the penetrating flux conservation applied on the presumed blade surface constitute the boundary conditions of the inverse problem. The detection of this flux leads to the rectification of the geometry of the blades.

Luu, T. S.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Robotics for Energy Infrastructure Construction on Earth and Beyond: Pilot Study Exploring Level 3-4 Semi-Autonomous Installation of a Reduced-Scale Photovoltaic Power Plant Prototype: Preprint

There is a growing need to build energy infrastructure at massive scale on both Earth and in space. On Earth, increasing electricity demand from applications such as AI data centers is driving rapid expansion of power systems, while in space, long-duration missions such as lunar operations require reliable and resilient energy infrastructure that can be deployed quickly. These needs outpace the capabilities of conventional construction methods. Robotic construction offers a path to faster, lower-cost, and more consistent deployment, yet most existing approaches focus on automating individual tasks rather than end-to-end assembly. The Industrialized Construction Innovation (ICI) team at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), in collaboration with the Colorado School of Mines, has been investigating robotics and automation strategies for rapid end-to-end energy infrastructure construction. This paper presents a pilot study demonstrating level 3-4 semi-autonomous, end-to-end robotic assembly of a reduced-scale photovoltaic power plant prototype under terrestrial conditions. The approach combines hardware redesign of photovoltaic components for robotic compatibility, discrete-event and physics-based robotic simulations in synthetic environments, and sim-to-real deployment to execute end-to-end robotic assembly of[NM1.1][NM1.2] tracking components, structural members, photovoltaic modules, and embedded electrical connections. The pilot identifies key limitations like tolerance management, perception and localization, end effector capability, fastening methods, and multi-physics simulation fidelity, that must be addressed to enable end-to-end robotic assembly of full-scale energy infrastructure. The study highlights how these insights inform scaling strategies for terrestrial energy infrastructure and adaptation to unstructured and extreme environments, including off-world scenarios such as robotic assembly of vertical tall lunar towers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Behavior and mechanisms of Doppler wind lidar error in varying stability regimes

Abstract. Wind lidars are widespread and important tools in atmospheric observations. An intrinsic part of lidar measurement error is due to atmospheric variability in the remote-sensing scan volume. This study describes and quantifies the distribution of measurement error due to turbulence in varying atmospheric stability. While the lidar error model is general, we demonstrate the approach using large ensembles of virtual WindCube V2 lidar performing a profiling Doppler-beam-swinging scan in quasi-stationary large-eddy simulations (LESs) of convective and stable boundary layers. Error trends vary with the stability regime, time averaging of results, and observation height. A systematic analysis of the observation error explains dominant mechanisms and supports the findings of the empirical results. Treating the error under a random variable framework allows for informed predictions about the effect of different configurations or conditions on lidar performance. Convective conditions are most prone to large errors (up to 1.5 m s−1 in 1 Hz wind speed in strong convection), driven by the large vertical velocity variances in convective conditions and the high elevation angle of the scanning beams (62∘). Range-gate weighting induces a negative bias into the horizontal wind speeds near the surface shear layer (−0.2 m s−1 in the stable test case). Errors in the horizontal wind speed and direction computed from the wind components are sensitive to the background wind speed but have negligible dependence on the relative orientation of the instrument. Especially during low winds and in the presence of large errors in the horizontal velocity estimates, the reported wind speed is subject to a systematic positive bias (up to 0.4 m s−1 in 1 Hz measurements in strong convection). Vector time-averaged measurements can improve the behavior of the error distributions (reducing the 10 min wind speed error standard deviation to <0.3 m s−1 and the bias to <0.1 m s−1 in strong convection) with a predictable effectiveness related to the number of decorrelated samples in the time window. Hybrid schemes weighting the 10 min scalar- and vector-averaged lidar measurements are shown to be effective at reducing the wind speed biases compared to cup measurements in most of the simulated conditions, with time averages longer than 10 min recommended for best use in some unstable conditions. The approach in decomposing the error mechanisms with the help of the LES flow field could be extended to more complex measurement scenarios and scans.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1987

Simulation of automatic precision departures and missed approaches using the microwave landing system

Results of simulated precision departures and missed approaches using MLS guidance concepts are presented. The study was conducted under the Terminal Configured Vehicle (TCV) Program, and is an extension of previous work by DAC under the Advanced Transport Operating System (ATOPS) Technology Studies Program. The study model included simulation of an MD-80 aircraft, an autopilot, and a MLS guidance computer that provided lateral and vertical steering commands. Precision departures were evaluated using a noise abatement procedure. Several curved path departures were simulated with MLS noise and under various environmental conditions. Missed approaches were considered for the same runway, where lateral MLS guidance maintained the aircraft along the extended runway centerline. In both the departures and the missed approach cases, pitch autopilot takeoff and go-around modes of operation were used in conjunction with MLS lateral guidance.

Feather, J. B.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Novel Test and Analysis Methodology for the Assessment of Joint under Re-entry Environment

Spacecraft thermal protection systems require unique approaches for design verification due to the extreme environments seen during space travel and atmospheric re-entry. In this work, unique considerations for design, analysis, and verification of a tiled heatshield design with material nonlinearity, material property temperature-dependency, material property rate-dependency, and geometric stress concentrations are presented. Such designs require a thorough application of the building block approach to derive appropriate material property datasets, and a novel application of analysis models to aid in the structural verification with testing. The custom application of material rate-dependency in finite element analysis software is presented as a means of leveraging the rate-dependent test data for the material property dataset. Because bonded tile heatshields contain so many design considerations and nonlinearities which often preclude the ability to easily achieve the requisite test factors in qualification testing, a novel sub-element test was developed that amplifies the stress singularity beyond flight conditions. The test achieves an over-test over flight stress conditions. The approach for sub-element coupon design can be extended to other bonded joint designs and can be used in aiding a qualification program.

Pavel Babuska↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model Package Report: Composite Analysis Solid Waste Release Model (CASWR Model)

This document describes the implementation of a solid waste form release model in GoldSim for the Hanford Site Composite Analysis (CA) Update. This Composite Analysis Solid Waste Release model (CASWR model) was designed to generate deterministic radionuclide release rates for Hanford’s Central Plateau solid waste disposal sites using single realizations of release model coefficients. Five generalized waste form types are used for the conceptual model of waste release: surplus reactor block, cement, soil-debris, grouted residual waste, and ancillary equipment. The surplus reactor block waste form consists of radionuclide leaching from surplus production graphite reactor core blocks via unspecified processes (White et al., 1984 as cited in PNNL-15965). The cement waste form represents solidified wastes whose permeability is much lower than that of the surrounding soil. The soil-debris waste form type is defined as unconsolidated waste mixed with soil material. Tanks and canyon complexes comprise the grouted residual waste form such that their solid waste will be grouted and capped with a surface barrier at the completion of their cleanup. Finally, the ancillary equipment waste form constitutes contaminant releases from ancillary and auxiliary waste form residues associated with tank farms at closure. Individual sub-models are implemented to numerically represent a respective waste form within the CASWR Model: Surplus Reactor Block Sub-model, Cement Sub-model, SoilDebris Sub-model, Grouted Residual Waste Sub-model, and Ancillary Equipment Submodel. Advection is assumed to be the primary transport process governing the release of radionuclides in the Ancillary Equipment and Soil-Debris Sub-models. Diffusion is assumed to be the primary release process in the Grouted Residual Waste and Cement Sub-models. An unspecified zero-order release process is considered in the Surplus Reactor Block Sub-model due to the lack of information regarding actual processes involved in irradiated graphite leaching. The Surplus Reactor Block, Cement, and SoilDebris Sub-models were compared against analytical solutions (PNNL-11800, Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the 200 Area Plateau of the Hanford Site). The agreement between results of these analytical solutions and the corresponding waste form models verified their correct implementation in GoldSim. A 1-D modeling abstraction approach for the Grouted Residual Waste and Ancillary Equipment Sub-models was adopted from existing Performance Assessment (PA) models. Despite the simplifications made in these sub-models, they were found to be appropriate representations of the waste forms, similar to what was used in the Waste Management Area C PA model (RPP-ENV-58782, Performance Assessment of Waste Management Area C, Hanford Site, Washington, Rev. 0). A sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the most influential parameters in each waste form sub-model. Suggestions for considering pH-dependent and redox-dependent release mechanisms are formulated through the development of a conditional constant approach in GoldSim.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2004

Situation Awareness Implications of Adaptive Automation of Air Traffic Controller Information Processing Functions

The goal of this research was to define a measure of situation awareness (SA) in an air traffic control (ATC) task and to assess the influence of adaptive automation (AA) of various information processing functions on controller perception, comprehension and projection. The measure was also to serve as a basis for defining and developing an approach to triggering dynamic control allocations, as part of AA, based on controller SA. To achieve these objectives, an enhanced version of an ATC simulation (Multitask (copyright)) was developed for use in two human factors experiments. The simulation captured the basic functions of Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) and was capable of presenting to operators four different modes of control, including information acquisition, information analysis, decision making and action implementation automation, as well as a completely manual control mode. The SA measure that was developed as part of the research was based on the Situation Awareness Global Assessment Technique (SAGAT), previous goal-directed task analyses of enroute control and TRACON, and a separate cognitive task analysis on the ATC simulation. The results of the analysis on Multitask were used as a basis for formulating SA queries as part of the SAGAT-based approach to measuring controller SA, which was used in the experiments. A total of 16 subjects were recruited for both experiments. Half the subjects were used in Experiment #1, which focused on assessing the sensitivity and reliability of the SA measurement approach in the ATC simulation. Comparisons were made of manual versus automated control. The remaining subjects were used in the second experiment, which was intended to more completely describe the SA implications of AA applied to specific controller information processing functions, and to describe how the measure could ultimately serve as a trigger of dynamic function allocations in the application of AA to ATC. Comparisons were made of the sensitivity of the SA measure to automation manipulations impacting both higher-order information processing functions, such as information analysis and decision making, versus lower-order functions, including information acquisition and action implementation. All subjects were exposed to all forms of AA of the ATC task and the manual control condition. The approach to AA used in both experiments was to match operator workload, assessed using a secondary task, to dynamic control allocations in the primary task. In total, the subjects in each experiment participated in 10 trials with each lasting between 45 minutes and 1 hour. In both experiments, ATC performance was measured in terms of aircraft cleared, conflicting, and collided. Secondary task (gauge monitoring) performance was assessed in terms of a hit-to-signal ratio. As part of the SA measure, three simulation freezes were conducted during each trial to administer queries on Level 1, 2, and 3 SA.

Kaber, David B.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thin-film chemical expansion of ceria based solid solutions: laser vibrometry study

The chemical expansion of Pr 0.1 Ce 0.9 O 2-δ (PCO) and CeO 2-δ thin films is investigated in the temperature range between 600 °C and 800 °C by laser Doppler vibrometry (LDV). It enables non-contact determination of nanometer scale changes in film thickness at high temperatures. The present study is the first systematic and detailed investigation of chemical expansion of doped and undoped ceria thin films at temperatures above 650 °C. The thin films were deposited on yttria stabilized zirconia substrates (YSZ), operated as an electrochemical oxygen pump, to periodically adjust the oxygen activity in the films, leading to reversible expansion and contraction of the film. This further leads to stresses in the underlying YSZ substrates, accompanied by bending of the overall devices. Film thickness changes and sample bending are found to reach up to 10 and several hundred nanometers, respectively, at excitation frequencies from 0.1 to 10 Hz and applied voltages from 0–0.75 V for PCO and 0–1 V for ceria. At low frequencies, equilibrium conditions are approached. As a consequence maximum thin-film expansion of PCO is expected due to full reduction of the Pr ions. The lower detection limit for displacements is found to be in the subnanometer range. At 800 °C and an excitation frequency of 1 Hz, the LDV shows a remarkable resolution of 0.3 nm which allows, for example, the characterization of materials with small levels of expansion, such as undoped ceria at high oxygen partial pressure. As the correlation between film expansion and sample bending is obtained through this study, a dimensional change of a free body consisting of the same material can be calculated using the high resolution characteristics of this system. A minimum detectable dimensional change of 5 pm is estimated even under challenging high-temperature conditions at 800 °C opening up opportunities to investigate electro-chemo-mechanical phenomena heretofore impossible to investigate. The expansion data are correlated with previous results on the oxygen nonstoichiometry of PCO thin films, and a defect model for bulk ceria solid solutions is adopted to calculate the cation and anion radii changes in the constrained films during chemical expansion. The constrained films exhibit anisotropic volume expansion with displacements perpendicular to the substrate plane nearly double that of bulk samples. The PCO films used here generate high total displacements of several 100 nm’s with high reproducibility. Consequently, PCO films are identified to be a potential core component of high-temperature actuators. They benefit not only from high displacements at temperatures where most piezoelectric materials no longer operate while exhibiting, low voltage operation and low energy consumption.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2007

NASA Langley's Approach to the Sandia's Structural Dynamics Challenge Problem

The objective of this challenge is to develop a data-based probabilistic model of uncertainty to predict the behavior of subsystems (payloads) by themselves and while coupled to a primary (target) system. Although this type of analysis is routinely performed and representative of issues faced in real-world system design and integration, there are still several key technical challenges that must be addressed when analyzing uncertain interconnected systems. For example, one key technical challenge is related to the fact that there is limited data on target configurations. Moreover, it is typical to have multiple data sets from experiments conducted at the subsystem level, but often samples sizes are not sufficient to compute high confidence statistics. In this challenge problem additional constraints are placed as ground rules for the participants. One such rule is that mathematical models of the subsystem are limited to linear approximations of the nonlinear physics of the problem at hand. Also, participants are constrained to use these models and the multiple data sets to make predictions about the target system response under completely different input conditions. Our approach involved initially the screening of several different methods. Three of the ones considered are presented herein. The first one is based on the transformation of the modal data to an orthogonal space where the mean and covariance of the data are matched by the model. The other two approaches worked solutions in physical space where the uncertain parameter set is made of masses, stiffnesses and damping coefficients; one matches confidence intervals of low order moments of the statistics via optimization while the second one uses a Kernel density estimation approach. The paper will touch on all the approaches, lessons learned, validation 1 metrics and their comparison, data quantity restriction, and assumptions/limitations of each approach. Keywords: Probabilistic modeling, model validation, uncertainty quantification, kernel density

Horta, Lucas G.↗