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At least 199 records · Page 11
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NASA NTRS2020

Impact of Convectively Detrained Ice Crystals on the Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

The role of convectively detrained ice crystals on the humidity of the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) is investigated in simulations of cirrus clouds along trajectories launched from the 378K potential temperature level in the tropics. The one-dimensional (vertical) cloud model tracks individual ice crystals through their lifecycle beginning with detrainment from convection, followed by deposition growth, sedimentation and sublimation. Convective influence of the parcels is diagnosed by tracing the trajectories through time-dependent fields of convective cloud-top height adjusted to match the CloudSAT and CALIPSO statistics. Model simulations of UTLS water vapor and cloud fields are evaluated and constrained by comparison with Aura MLS and CALIPSO measurements. Preliminary results indicate sensitivity of the detrained ice crystal lifecycle to atmospheric conditions downstream of convection. Specifically, cooling (high relative humidity and supersaturation) downstream of convection leads to deposition growth and sedimentation of detrained ice crystals, resulting in net dehydration of the UTLS. In contrast, warming (low relative humidity and subsaturation) downstream of convection leads to sublimation of detrained ice crystals and subsequent hydration. As such, the impact of detrained ice crystals on the humidity of the UTLS exhibits distinct spatial variability. Detrained ice crystals predominantly dehydrate the UTLS in the tropical mean. Sensitivities to the convectively detrained ice crystal size and concentration are also examined using measurements from the StatoClim aircraft campaign. The importance of convectively detrained ice crystals will be discussed within the context of the overall contribution of convection to the lower stratospheric humidity.

Ueyama, Rei↗
NASA NTRS2019

Influence of Deep Convection on Cirrus and Water Vapor Concentration in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

It is well known that stratospheric humidity is primarily controlled by freeze drying (ice crystal growth and sedimentation) of air ascending across the cold tropical tropopause. However, the suggestion of an important source of water vapor from deep convection that extends above the tropical tropopause has persisted. There exists much anecdotal evidence of direct convective hydration of the lower stratosphere based on measurements from high altitude aircraft campaigns, but quantifying the impact of deep convection on the overall budget of stratospheric water vapor has proven challenging. The role of convection on the humidity of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) is investigated in simulations of cirrus clouds along trajectories launched from given potential temperature level surfaces. The one-dimensional (vertical) cloud model tracks individual ice crystals through their life cycles, beginning with nucleation or detrainment from convection, followed by deposition growth, sedimentation and sublimation. Convective influence of the parcels is diagnosed by tracing the trajectories through time-dependent fields of convective cloud-top height adjusted to match the CloudSAT and CALIPSO statistics. Model simulations of UTLS water vapor and cloud fields are evaluated and constrained by comparison with MLS and CALIPSO measurements. The simulation results indicate that the overall impact of convection on water vapor near the tropical tropopause is 10-15%, while the impact on lower stratospheric humidity is no more than a few percent. Ice crystals detrained from deep convection have relatively small effect. The general implications for the importance of deep convection on UTLS humidity and cirrus cloud fraction will be discussed.

Ueyama, Rei↗
NASA NTRS2021

Potential impact of aerosols on convective clouds revealed by Himawari-8 observations over different terrain types in eastern China

Convective clouds are common and play a major role in Earth's water cycle and energy balance; they may even develop into storms and cause severe rainfall events. To understand the convective cloud development process, this study investigates the impact of aerosols on convective clouds by considering the influence of both topography and diurnal variation in radiation. By combining texture analysis, clustering, and thresholding methods, we identify all convective clouds in two warm seasons (May–September, 2016/17) in eastern China based on Himawari-8 Level 1 data. Having large diurnally resolved cloud data together with surface meteorological and environmental measurements, we investigate convective cloud properties and their variation, stratified by elevation and diurnal change. We then analyze the potential impact of aerosol on convective clouds under different meteorological conditions and topographies. In general, convective clouds tend to occur preferentially under polluted conditions in the morning, which reverses in the afternoon. Convective cloud fraction first increases then decreases with aerosol loading, which may contribute to this phenomenon. Topography and diurnal meteorological variations may affect the strength of aerosol microphysical and radiative effects. Updraft is always stronger along the windward slopes of mountains and plateaus, especially in northern China. The prevailing southerly wind near the foothills of mountains and plateaus is likely to contribute to this windward strengthening of updraft and to bring more pollutant into the mountains, thereby strengthening the microphysical effect, invigorating convective clouds. By comparison, over plain, aerosols decrease surface heating and suppress convection by blocking solar radiation reaching the surface.

clouds↗
NASA NTRS2021

Potential impact of aerosols on convective clouds revealed by Himawari-8 observations over different terrain types in Eastern China

Convective clouds are common and play a major role in Earth’s water cycle and energy balance; they may even develop into storms and cause severe rainfall events. To understand the convective cloud development process, this study investigates the impact of aerosols on convective clouds by considering the influence of both topography and diurnal variation of radiation. By combining texture analysis, clustering and thresholding methods, we identify all convective clouds in two warm seasons (May-September, 2016-2017) in eastern China based on Himawari-8 Level 1 data. Having a large diurnally resolved cloud data together with surface meteorological and environmental measurements, we investigate convective cloud properties and their variation, stratified by elevation and diurnal change. We then analyze the potential impact of aerosol on convective clouds under different meteorological conditions and topographies. In general, convective clouds tend to occur preferentially under polluted conditions in the morning, which reverses in the afternoon. Convective cloud fraction first increases then decreases with aerosol loading, which may contribute to this phenomenon. Topography and diurnal meteorological variations may affect the strength of aerosol microphysical and radiative effects. Updraft is always stronger along the windward slopes of mountains and plateaus, especially in northern China. The prevailing southerly wind near the foothills of mountains and plateaus is likely to contribute to this windward strengthening of updraft and to bring more pollutant into the mountains, thereby strengthening the microphysical effect, invigorating convective clouds. By comparison, over plain, aerosols decrease surface heating and suppresses convection by blocking solar radiation reaching the surface.

Tianmeng Chen↗
DOE OSTI2023

Atmosphere–Ocean Coupled Energy Budgets of Tropical Convective Discharge–Recharge Cycles

An energy budget combining atmospheric moist static energy (MSE) and upper ocean heat content (OHC) is used to examine the processes impacting day-to-day convective variability in the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Feedbacks arising from atmospheric and oceanic transport processes, surface fluxes, and radiation drive the cyclical amplification and decay of convection around suppressed and enhanced convective equilibrium states, referred to as shallow and deep convective discharge–recharge (D–R) cycles, respectively. The shallow convective D–R cycle is characterized by alternating enhancements of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus, often in the presence of extensive cirrus clouds. The deep convective D–R cycle is characterized by sequential increases in shallow cumulus, congestus, narrow deep precipitation, wide deep precipitation, a mix of detached anvil and altostratus and altocumulus, and once again shallow cumulus cloud types. Transitions from the shallow to deep D–R cycle are favored by a positive “column process” feedback, while discharge of convective instability and OHC by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contributes to transitions from the deep to shallow D–R cycle. Variability in the processes impacting MSE is comparable in magnitude to, but considerably more balanced than, variability in the processes impacting OHC. Variations in the quantity of atmosphere–ocean coupled static energy (MSE + OHC) result primarily from atmospheric and oceanic transport processes, but are mainly realized as changes in OHC. MCSs are unique in their ability to rapidly discharge both lower-tropospheric convective instability and OHC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Impacts of Convective Cloud Microphysics in NCAR CAM5

Here we improved the treatments of convective cloud microphysics in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3) by 1) implementing new terminal velocity parameterizations for convective ice and snow particles, 2) adding graupel microphysics, 3) considering convective snow detrainment, and 4) enhancing rain initiation and generation rate in warm clouds. Furthermore, we evaluated the impacts of improved microphysics on simulated global climate, focusing on simulated cloud radiative forcing, graupel microphysics, convective cloud ice amount, and tropical precipitation. Compared to CAM5.3 with the default convective microphysics, the too-strong cloud shortwave radiative forcing due primarily to excessive convective cloud liquid is largely alleviated over the tropics and midlatitudes after rain initiation and generation rate is enhanced, in better agreement with the CERES-EBAF estimates. Geographic distributions of graupel occurrence are reasonably simulated over continents; whereas the graupel occurrence remains highly uncertain over the oceanic storm-track regions. When evaluated against the CloudSat–CALIPSO estimates, the overestimation of convective ice mass is alleviated with the improved convective ice microphysics, among which adding graupel microphysics and the accompanying increase in hydrometeor fall speed play the most important role. The probability distribution function (PDF) of rainfall intensity is sensitive to warm rain processes in convective clouds, and enhancement in warm rain production shifts the PDF toward heavier precipitation, which agrees better with the TRMM observations. Common biases of overestimating the light rain frequency and underestimating the heavy rain frequency in GCMs are mitigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Impacts of Horizontal Grid Spacing and Cumulus Parameterization on Subseasonal Prediction in a Global Convection-Permitting Model

Monthlong simulations targeting four Madden–Julian oscillation events made with several global model configurations are verified against observations to assess the roles of grid spacing and convective parameterization on the representation of tropical convection and midlatitude forecast skill. Specifically, the performance of a global convection-permitting model (CPM) configuration with a uniform 3-km mesh is compared to that of a global 15-km mesh with and without convective parameterization, and of a variable-resolution “channel” simulation using 3-km grid spacing only in the tropics with a scale-aware convection scheme. It is shown that global 3-km simulations produce realistic tropical precipitation statistics, except for an overall wet bias and delayed diurnal cycle. The channel simulation performs similarly, although with an unrealistically higher frequency of heavy rain. The 15-km simulations with and without cumulus schemes produce too much light and heavy tropical precipitation, respectively. Without convection parameterization, the 15-km global model produces unrealistically abundant, short-lived, and intense convection throughout the tropics. Only the global CPM configuration is able to capture eastward-propagating Madden–Julian oscillation events, and the 15-km runs favor stationary or westward-propagating convection organized at the planetary scale. The global 3-km CPM exhibits the highest extratropical forecast skill aloft and at the surface, particularly during week 3 of each hindcast. Although more cases are needed to confirm these results, this study highlights many potential benefits of using global CPMs for subseasonal forecasting. Furthermore, results show that alternatives to global convection-permitting resolution—using coarser or spatially variable resolution—feature compromises that may reduce their predictive performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resolved gravity waves in the tropical stratosphere: Impact of horizontal resolution and deep convection parametrization

Convectively generated gravity waves (CGGWs) are important for numerical weather prediction due to their effect on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the stratosphere. Here, using global ECMWF IFS simulations at TCo7999 (or 1.25 km), TCo2559 (or 3.9 km) and TCo1279 (or 7.8 km) horizontal resolutions, sensitivity of resolved CGGWs to the horizontal resolution and to the explicit versus parametrized representation of deep convection is elucidated during the westerly shear phase of the QBO. Parametrized deep convection is found to inhibit CGGWs, resulting in a twofold reduction in CGGW forcing. When deep convection is explicitly resolved, the total CGGW forcing is almost unchanged across the horizontal resolutions. However, the contribution of long and mesoscale CGGWs (with horizontal wavelengths 100 km ≤ $λ_h$ < $1,900$ km) to the total CGGW forcing decreases and the contribution of smaller-scale CGGWs (with $λ_h$ < $100$ km) increases as the horizontal resolution increases. At the maximum CGGW forcing altitude, at TCo7999 resolution 43% of the total CGGW forcing is due to long and mesoscale waves, whereas at TCo2559 and TCo1279 resolutions their contribution is 70% and 90%, respectively. While CGGW forcing from long and mesoscale waves is similar at TCo7999 resolution with explicit deep convection and at TCo1279 resolution with parametrized deep convection, CGGW forcing from these waves is artificially enhanced at TCo1279 and TCo2559 resolutions with explicit deep convection. This is due to the explicit deep convection being too strong and having too much variance for 100 km ≤ $λ_h$ < $1,900$ km. Therefore, parametrizations of deep convection and CGGWs (to account for forcing from waves with $λ_h$ < $100$ km) are required even at TCo2559 resolution. Additionally, resolved CGGW forcing at TCo7999 resolution is examined for the easterly shear phase of the QBO; similar to the westerly shear phase, the smaller-scale waves contribute 55% to the total CGGW forcing at the maximum CGGW forcing altitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tropical Cirrus in Global Storm-Resolving Models: 1. Role of Deep Convection

Pervasive cirrus clouds in the upper troposphere and tropical tropopause layer (TTL) influence the climate by altering the top-of-atmosphere radiation balance and stratospheric water vapor budget. These cirrus are often associated with deep convection, which global climate models must parameterize and struggle to accurately simulate. By comparing high-resolution global storm-resolving models from the Dynamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) intercomparison that explicitly simulate deep convection to satellite observations, we assess how well these models simulate deep convection, convectively generated cirrus, and deep convective injection of water into the TTL over representative tropical land and ocean regions. The DYAMOND models simulate deep convective precipitation, organization, and cloud structure fairly well over land and ocean regions, but with clear intermodel differences. All models produce frequent overshooting convection whose strongest updrafts humidify the TTL and are its main source of frozen water. Intermodel differences in cloud properties and convective injection exceed differences between land and ocean regions in each model. We argue that, with further improvements, global storm-resolving models can better represent tropical cirrus and deep convection in present and future climates than coarser-resolution climate models. To realize this potential, they must use available observations to perfect their ice microphysics and dynamical flow solvers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Numerical Simulations of Orographic Convection across Multiple Gray Zones

Idealized simulations are used to determine the sensitivity of moist orographic convection to horizontal grid spacing Δ h . In simulated mechanically (MECH) and thermally (THERM) forced convection over an isolated ridge, Δ h is varied systematically over both the deep-convection (Δ h ~ 10 –1 km) and turbulence (Δ h ~ 1 km–100 m) gray zones. To aid physical interpretation, a new parcel-based bulk entrainment/detrainment diagnosis for horizontally heterogeneous flows is developed. Within the deep-convection gray zone, the Δ h sensitivity is dominated by differences in parameterized versus explicit convection; the former initiates convection too far upstream of the ridge (MECH) and too early in the diurnal heating cycle (THERM). These errors stem in part from a large underprediction of parameterized entrainment and detrainment. Within the turbulence gray zone, sensitivities to Δh arise from the representation of both subcloud- and cloud-layer turbulence. As Δ h is decreased, MECH exhibits stronger cloud-layer entrainment to enhance the convective mass flux M co , while THERM exhibits stronger detrainment to suppress Mco and delay convection initiation. The latter is reinforced by increased subcloud turbulence at smaller Δ h , which leads to drying and diffusion of the central updraft responsible for initiating moist convection. Numerical convergence to a robust solution occurs only in THERM, which develops a fully turbulent flow with a resolved inertial subrange (for Δ h ≤ 250 m). In MECH, by contrast, turbulent transition occurs within the orographic cloud, the details of which depend on both physical location and Δ h .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forest Breeze–Cold Pool Interactions Drive Convective Organization over Heterogeneous Vegetation

Heterogeneous landscapes can influence the development of convection through the generation of thermally driven mesoscale circulations. To assess the impacts of these circulations and their interaction with sea breezes, we simulated convection in an idealized coastal environment using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). We compared simulations with striped patterns of surface vegetation to those of uniform vegetation to identify the importance of vegetation heterogeneity in impacting convective development. Under dry soil conditions representative of those during the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) and Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE) campaigns in June 2022, we found that these vegetation-induced circulations, referred to in the literature as “forest breezes,” are more important than the sea breeze in determining the location of convection initiation. Convection and precipitation are also found to be favored over forests and suppressed over pasture and suburban landscapes as a result of greater surface sensible heat flux over the forest. Our findings also indicate that forest breezes are important for initiating convection along the boundaries of the forest, but that cold pools may play a key role in propagating the forest breezes toward the center of the forest stripe. In our simulations, the collisions of these breezes in the center of the forest stripe lead to uplift and strong convection there; however, a different width of the forest stripe would alter when the forest breezes collide or whether they collide at all. The presence of these cold pools may therefore impact the “ideal stripe width,” the width of each vegetation stripe which maximizes domain-wide precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulating the Effects of Surface Energy Partitioning on Convective Organization: Case Study and Observations in the US Southern Great Plains

Realistic cloud-resolving simulations were performed to study the effects of surface energy partitioning (surface sensible and latent heat fluxes) on the organization of isolated convection into larger mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) near the US Southern Great Plains. The role of cold pools in mediating surface-convection interactions was explored. Better organized MCSs tended to occur in the experiments with perturbed wetter soil (and more active vegetation), regardless of the effects of soil moisture on the diurnal timing of convective triggering. Wetter soil led to shallower boundary layers and more convective available potential energy than drier soil. The roles of cold pools on convection are lifecycle-stage dependent: A dry surface allows more numerous colliding cold pools, thereby aiding in convective triggering by reducing entrainment in the early stages, and providing gust-front uplift in later stages. However, horizontal propagation of the cold-pool density current can outrun the convective system, creating a slantwise updraft and thus weakening the gust front uplift in later stages. This effect calls into question previous cold pool parameterizations, in which the gust front uplift is mainly proportional to the negative buoyancy of cold air. Finally, both the model and observation show an enhancement of surface latent heat flux during the passage of a gust front at night, suggesting that a positive feedback between the surface and convection helps MCSs to persist into the nighttime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Binomial Stochastic Framework for Efficiently Modeling Discrete Statistics of Convective Populations

Abstract Understanding the coupling between convective clouds and the general circulation, as well as addressing the gray zone problem in convective parameterization, requires insight into the genesis and maintenance of spatial patterns in cumulus cloud populations. In this study, a simple toy model for recreating populations of interacting convective objects as distributed over a two‐dimensional Eulerian grid is formulated to this purpose. Key elements at the foundation of the model include i) a fully discrete formulation for capturing discrete behavior in convective properties at small population sample sizes, ii) object age‐dependence for representing life‐cycle effects, and iii) a prognostic number budget allowing for object interactions and co‐existence of multiple species. A primary goal is to optimize the computational efficiency of this system. To this purpose the object birth rate is represented stochastically through a spatially aware Bernoulli process. The same binomial stochastic operator is applied to horizontal advection of objects, conserving discreteness in object number. The applicability to atmospheric convection as well as behavior implied by the formulation is assessed. Various simple applications of the BiOMi model (Binomial Objects on Microgrids) are explored, suggesting that important convective behavior can be captured at low computational cost. This includes i) subsampling effects and associated powerlaw scaling in the convective gray zone, ii) stochastic predator‐prey behavior, iii) the downscale turbulent energy cascade, and iv) simple forms of spatial organization and convective memory. Consequences and opportunities for convective parameterization in next‐generation weather and climate models are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Summer Convective Precipitation Changes Over the Great Lakes Region Under a Warming Scenario

To understand future summer precipitation changes over the Great Lakes Region (GLR), we performed an ensemble of regional climate simulations through the Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) approach. We found that different types of convective precipitation respond differently to the PGW signal. Isolated deep convection (IDC), usually concentrated in the southern domain, shows an increase in precipitation to the north of the GLR. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), usually concentrated upwind of the GLR, shift to the downwind region with increased precipitation. Thermodynamic variables such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition energy (CIN) are found to increase across almost the entire studied domain, creating a potential environment more favorable for stronger convection systems and less favorable for weaker ones. Meanwhile, changes in the lifting condensation level (LCL) and level of free convection (LFC) show a strong correlation with variations in convective precipitation, highlighting the significance of these thermodynamic factors in controlling precipitation over the domain. Our results indicate that the decrease in LCL and LCF in areas with increased convective precipitation is mainly due to increased atmospheric moisture. In response to the prescribed warming perturbation, MCSs occur more frequently downwind, while localized IDCs exhibit more intense rain rates, longer durations, and larger rainfall area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Urbanization on Convection, Lightning, and Precipitation Over the Houston Metropolitan Area: Case Study Simulation From the TRACER Campaign

This study investigates the effects of urbanization, specifically land use change and anthropogenic emissions (AE), on convection, lightning, and surface precipitation for a case of summertime sea‐breeze convection observed over the Houston metropolitan area. The unique capabilities of the NASA‐Unified Weather Research and Forecasting model allows us to conduct a series of sensitivity experiments with complex configurations, in particular including multi‐year land model spin‐up simulations, treatment of aerosols and their precursors, and explicit cloud charging and lightning. The simulation results show that urban land use primarily alters the temporal evolution of convection, lightning, and surface precipitation, leading to late afternoon thunderstorm development. The decrease in latent heat flux from the land surface caused by urbanization weakens convection in the early afternoon, while a condition suitable for convection development is maintained in the late afternoon due to less stabilization of the lower troposphere by the weaker convection development and high sensible heat flux from the surface. On the other hand, anthropogenic aerosols directly enhance convection, lightning, and surface precipitation by increasing convective updrafts due to the aerosol‐induced convective invigoration. The combined effects of urban land use and AE lead to even stronger thunderstorms in the late afternoon, mostly consistent with observations. These results indicate that urbanization increases the probability of late afternoon thunderstorms over the Houston area during the summer season. Advanced weather forecasting models that incorporate these urbanization effects might support sustainable urban planning to better mitigate the impacts of urbanization on local weather and public safety.

Iguchi, T. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (U↗
DOE OSTI2021

Convective-storm environments in subtropical South America from high-frequency soundings during RELAMPAGO-CACTI

During the RELAMPAGO-CACTI field experiments in 2018-19, an unprecedented number of balloon-borne soundings were collected in Argentina. Radiosondes were launched from both fixed and mobile platforms, yielding 2712 soundings during the period 15 October 2018-30 April 2019. Approximately 20% of these soundings were collected by highly mobile platforms, strategically positioned for each intensive observing period, and launching approximately once per hour. The combination of fixed and mobile soundings capture both the overall conditions characterizing the RELAMPAGO-CACTI campaign, as well as the detailed evolution of environments supporting the initiation and upscale growth of deep convective storms, including some that produced hazardous hail and heavy rainfall. Episodes of frequent convection were characterized by sufficient quantities of moisture and instability for deep convection, along with deep-layer vertical wind shear supportive of organized or rotating storms. Eleven soundings showed most-unstable convective available potential energy (MUCAPE) exceeding 6000 J kg-1, comparable to the extreme instability observed in other parts of the world with intense deep convection. Parameters used to diagnose severe-storm potential showed that conditions were often favorable for supercells and severe hail, but not for tornadoes, primarily owing to insufficient low-level wind shear. High-frequency soundings also revealed the structure and evolution of the boundary layer leading up to convection initiation, convectively generated cold pools, the South American Low-Level Jet (SALLJ), and elevated nocturnal convection. This sounding dataset will enable improved understanding and prediction of convective storms and their surroundings in subtropical South America, as well as comparisons with other heavily studied regions such as the central United States that have not previously been possible.

Schumacher, Russ S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Collaborative Proposal: Improving understanding of the internal structure and dynamics of deep convection using ARM observations and large eddy simulations

Recent observational and large eddy simulation (LES) modeling studies have nearly unanimously supported the view of deep cumulus convection being composed of a series of quasi-spherical bubbles of buoyant air, known as moist thermals. Despite the prevalence of moist thermals in deep convection, a comprehensive theory for the dynamics of these structures is lacking. Most current conceptual models for cumulus convection are based on canonical scaling theories for dry thermals or plumes; however, there is considerable evidence that the behavior of moist thermals differs markedly from these theories. Furthermore, the theoretical basis for most cumulus parameterizations originates from the plume conceptual model, and therefore these parameterizations are inconsistent with the real structure of moist convection. Motivated by the aforementioned knowledge gaps, this “end-to-end” research effort use theory, observations, numerical simulations, and direct improvements to the Zhang-McFarlane (ZM) convection scheme in the global climate Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) to address the following research questions: What key environmental parameters determine whether or not shallow convection will transition into deep convection, in the context of thermal-like updrafts? What factors regulate the size of thermals within cumulus updrafts? How does vertical wind shear influence thermal behavior, and as a consequence, vertical velocity and mass flux profiles and the shallow-to-deep convective transition? What are the critical processes that determine updraft vertical velocities and their connection to the vertical mass flux profile for thermal-like updrafts? Idealized LES modeling will be used in conjunction with theoretical models for the core properties of thermal-like updrafts to better understand key processes that regulate thermal ascent rates and entrainment properties. Thermal-tracking procedures will be used to characterize the behavior of thermals within the LES, and recently developed direct measures of entrainment and detrainment will be used to quantify entrainment/detrainment rates. Building from these results, we will analyze the structure of moist thermals from hemispheric range-height indicator scans taken during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign, and from “real case” LES of CACTI events. This combined modeling and observational analysis will provide essential validation for the existing body of research on moist thermal dynamics, which is based primarily on modeling studies. With the insight gained from the aforementioned activities, we will modify the Zhang-McFarlane convection scheme to improve its representation of updraft vertical velocity and entrainment rate profiles. These process-level changes will be tested in the Community Atmosphere Model to assess the impact on global climate simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

RCEMIP-II: mock-Walker simulations as phase II of the radiative–convective equilibrium model intercomparison project

Abstract. The radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) model intercomparison project (RCEMIP) leveraged the simplicity of RCE to focus attention on moist convective processes and their interactions with radiation and circulation across a wide range of model types including cloud-resolving models (CRMs), general circulation models (GCMs), single-column models, global cloud-resolving models, and large-eddy simulations. While several robust results emerged across the spectrum of models that participated in the first phase of RCEMIP (RCEMIP-I), two points that stand out are (1) the strikingly large diversity in simulated climate states and (2) the strong imprint of convective self-aggregation on the climate state. However, the lack of consensus in the structure of self-aggregation and its response to warming is a barrier to understanding. Gaining a deeper understanding of convective aggregation and tropical climate will require reducing the degrees of freedom with which convection can vary. Therefore, we propose phase II of RCEMIP (RCEMIP-II) that utilizes a prescribed sinusoidal sea surface temperature (SST) pattern to provide a constraint on the structure of convection and move one critical step up the model hierarchy. This so-called “mock-Walker” configuration generates features that resemble observed tropical circulations. The specification of the mock-Walker protocol for RCEMIP-II is described, along with example results from one CRM and one GCM. RCEMIP-II will consist of five required simulations: three simulations with the same three mean SSTs as in RCEMIP-I but with an SST gradient and two additional simulations at one of the mean SSTs with different values of the SST gradients. We also test the sensitivity to the imposed SST gradient and the domain size. Under weak SST gradients, unforced self-aggregation emerges across the entire domain, similar to what was found in RCEMIP. As the SST gradient increases, the convective region narrows and is more confined to the warmest SSTs. At warmer mean SSTs and stronger SST gradients, low-frequency variability in the convective aggregation emerges, suggesting that simulations of at least 200 d may be needed to achieve robust equilibrium statistics in this configuration. Simulations with different domain sizes generally have similar mean statistics and convective structures, depending on the value of the SST gradient. The prescribed SST boundary condition is the only difference in the set-up between RCEMIP-II and RCEMIP-I, which enables comparison between the two; however, we also welcome participation in RCEMIP-II from models that did not participate in RCEMIP-I.

Geology↗