Results for “cost data analysis” — Page 11

DOE OSTI2025

Carbon Dioxide Removal Measurement, Reporting, and Verification Simulation toolkit (CDR MRVSim) v0.1

CDR MRVSim is a statistical software toolkit for techno-economic analysis of measurement, reporting, and verification of multiple carbon dioxide removal technologies. The current version applies Monte Carlo simulation to existing datasets estimate the cost and uncertainty of measuring the soil organic carbon (SOC) content of agricultural land, accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, using data from field measurements. We are planning to incorporate enhanced rock weathering and other technologies into the software. The current model leverages existing data to characterize underlying variability in soil organic carbon and related parameters, including bulk density, in an agricultural field attempting to increase its SOC. We then simulate baseline and post-intervention "measurement campaigns" in which some number of SOC and bulk density measurements are conducted using a selected technology. This enables estimates of the cost and accuracy of measuring changes in SOC in the simulated field. The primary advantages over similar software are: 1) ability to quantify tradeoffs between cost and uncertainty in MRV across a range of possible MRV approaches 2) focus on guiding development of novel sensors by determining desirable sets of characteristics

Sherwin, Evan [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗

DOE OSTI2026

System-of-systems optimization of hydrogen infrastructure for heavy-duty freight corridors: The interstate 10 case study

Medium and heavy-duty freight transportation requires hydrogen energy infrastructure that is cost-effective, operationally reliable, spatially coherent, and resilient to demand variability along major corridors. This paper presents an integrated hydrogen corridor planning framework using Oak Ridge National Laboratory's OR-AGENT that couples freight-driven, route-resolved hydrogen demand modeling with optimized station siting, sizing, and station-level techno-economic analysis. The framework is demonstrated for the Interstate 10 freight corridor and the Houston-to-Los-Angeles region. Hydrogen demand is derived from high-resolution origin–destination freight data, duty-cycle characterization, and physics-based energy consumption modeling. Candidate refueling sites are selected from existing heavy-duty diesel fueling locations and optimized subject to onboard storage and station capacity constraints. Resulting station throughputs are evaluated using established techno-economic models for electrolytic hydrogen production and dispensing infrastructure. Results show that a regional, portfolio-level aggregation, average dispensed electrolytic hydrogen cost of $6.87–$7.26/kg is currently feasible, and is strongly influenced by demand density and utilization.

Sujan, Vivek [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000269882342)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of AI-enabled Digital Documented Safety Analysis

The National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) is leading a transformative initiative to accelerate advanced reactor deployment by fundamentally reimagining how nuclear safety basis documentation is developed, reviewed, and maintained. Traditional Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) processes for DOE-authorized facilities rely on static, document-centric workflows that consume significant time and resources, exemplified by recent major licensing efforts requiring hundreds of thousands of staff hours and millions of pages of documentation review. These conventional approaches create barriers to the rapid, cost-effective deployment of advanced reactors that America's future energy needs demand. NRIC's DOE Authorization Digital Transformation Project addresses these challenges through an innovative framework that integrates artificial intelligence (AI), digital engineering, and systems-based data management into a cohesive digital ecosystem. This white paper presents NRIC's methodology for evaluating AI-enabled document generation capabilities within this broader digital infrastructure, using the Demonstration of Microreactor Experiments (DOME) facility as a pilot case study. The evaluation will assess an AI tool's ability to generate a Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis (PDSA) through progressive integration stages—from standalone document processing to full digital thread connectivity—while maintaining rigorous verification, validation, and regulatory acceptance standards. By establishing dynamic, traceable connections between design data and safety documentation, NRIC's approach has the potential to reduce both document development time and regulatory review cycles by as much as 50%, while simultaneously improving accuracy, consistency, and traceability. This initiative represents a critical step toward establishing reusable digital infrastructure that reactor developers can leverage to accelerate their path from concept to commercial operation, directly supporting NRIC's mission to demonstrate and deploy advanced nuclear energy technologies.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

SO(3)-invariant PCA with application to molecular data

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a fundamental technique for dimensionality reduction and denoising; however, its application to three-dimensional data with arbitrary orientations -- common in structural biology -- presents significant challenges. A naive approach requires augmenting the dataset with many rotated copies of each sample, incurring prohibitive computational costs. In this paper, we extend PCA to 3D volumetric datasets with unknown orientations by developing an efficient and principled framework for SO(3)-invariant PCA that implicitly accounts for all rotations without explicit data augmentation. By exploiting underlying algebraic structure, we demonstrate that the computation involves only the square root of the total number of covariance entries, resulting in a substantial reduction in complexity. We validate the method on real-world molecular datasets, demonstrating its effectiveness and opening up new possibilities for large-scale, high-dimensional reconstruction problems.

Fraiman, Michael [Tel Aviv Univ., Tel Aviv (Israel↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bias Corrected NOAA HRRR Wind Resource Data for Grid Integration Applications

To address the need for regularly updated wind resource data, NREL has processed the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) outputs for use in grid integration modeling. The HRRR is an hourly-updated operational forecast product produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Dowell et al., 2022). Several barriers have prevented the HRRR's widespread proliferation in the wind energy industry: missing timesteps (prior to 2019), challenging file format for wind energy analysis, limited vertical height resolution, and negative bias versus legacy WIND Toolkit data (2007-2013). NREL has applied re-gridding, interpolation, and bias-correction to the native HRRR data to overcome these limitations. This results in the now-publicly-available bias corrected and interpolated HRRR (BC-HRRR) dataset for weather years 2015 to 2023. Bias correction is necessary for wind resource consistency across weather years to be used simultaneously in planning-focused grid integration studies alongside the original WIND Toolkit data. We show that quantile mapping with the WIND Toolkit as a historical baseline is an effective method for bias correcting the interpolated HRRR data: the BC-HRRR has reduced mean bias versus comparable gridded wind resource datasets (+0.12 m/s versus Vortex) and has very low mean bias versus ground measurement stations (+0.01 m/s) (Buster et al., 2024). BC-HRRR's consistency with the legacy WIND Toolkit allows NREL to extend grid integration analysis to 15+ weather years of wind data with low-overhead extensibility to future years as they are made available by NOAA. As with historical datasets like the WIND Toolkit, BC-HRRR is intended for use in grid integration modeling (e.g., capacity expansion, production cost, and resource adequacy modeling) both independently and alongside the legacy WIND Toolkit.

Array↗

DOE OSTI2025

Shallow Geothermal Resources for Cooling Applications at the University of Hawai'i

Drilling activities account for 30% to 57% of the cost to develop and install a geothermal plant. Therefore, an accurate representation of the cost to drill a well is paramount in techno-economic analysis to determine the feasibility of a geothermal power project. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) endeavored to revise the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) GeoVision baseline drilling cost curves due to extensive improvement in drilling rates at the Utah Frontier Observatory Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) demonstration site. That effort did not culminate in the recommendation of new curves because the actual project costs did not match the reported performance improvements and were at or above the GeoVision baseline. The need for another iteration of this analysis has arisen from industry record drilling performance reported by recent commercial field-scale and demonstration projects, including Fervo Energy's Cape Station, the Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32 demonstration and the Geysers Power Company's GDC-36 demonstration. Therefore, in this work, we have estimated the resulting industry average rate of penetration (ROP) and bit life and applied these parameters as inputs to the Well Cost Simplified model used in the GeoVision analysis. The resulting revised cost curves show a significant decline from the GeoVision baseline. For vertical wells, the magnitude of cost decline ranges between 12% and 24% while for deviated wells, cost reductions between 18% and 26% are estimated. The revised cost curves are in good agreement with actual cost data and therefore, quantify the economic impact of the utilization of (and advances in) polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bit technology and the application of physics-based methodologies that optimize mechanical specific energy.

building cooling↗

DOE OSTI2025

2025 Geothermal Drilling Cost Curves Update: Preprint

Drilling activities account for 30% to 57% of the cost to develop and install a geothermal plant. Therefore, an accurate representation of the cost to drill a well is paramount in techno-economic analysis to determine the feasibility of a geothermal power project. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) endeavored to revise the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) GeoVision baseline drilling cost curves due to extensive improvement in drilling rates at the Utah Frontier Observatory Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) demonstration site. That effort did not culminate in the recommendation of new curves because the actual project costs did not match the reported performance improvements and were at or above the GeoVision baseline. The need for another iteration of this analysis has arisen from industry record drilling performance reported by recent commercial field-scale and demonstration projects, including Fervo Energy’s Cape Station, the Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32 demonstration and the Geysers Power Company’s GDC-36 demonstration. Therefore, in this work, we have estimated the resulting industry average rate of penetration (ROP) and bit life and applied these parameters as inputs to the Well Cost Simplified model used in the GeoVision analysis. The resulting revised cost curves show a significant decline from the GeoVision baseline. For vertical wells, the magnitude of cost decline ranges between 12% and 24% while for deviated wells, cost reductions between 18% and 26% are estimated. The revised cost curves are in good agreement with actual cost data and therefore, quantify the economic impact of the utilization of (and advances in) polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bit technology and the application of physics-based methodologies that optimize mechanical specific energy.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Site-specific Design Case Study for Wet Waste Hydrothermal Liquefaction and Biocrude Upgrading to Hydrocarbon Fuels

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a thermal process that converts wet biomass to renewable hydrocarbon fuel blendstocks (i.e., renewable naphtha, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)). It can utilize a wide range of pure and blended wet feedstocks, including sewage sludge from water resource recovery facilities (WRRF), food and agriculture wastes, algae, fats, oils and greases (FOG) and blends of dry and wet wastes/feedstocks. Historically, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and annual state of technology (SOT) assessments with standard economic assumptions used by the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) were conducted for the wet waste HTL pathway leveraging experimental data collected from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) continuous flow reactor systems. The objective of the SOT assessment has been to guide and track progress of BETO’s HTL research and development (R&D) toward reduced cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the pathway. However, gaps exist between BETO’s traditional SOT updates and the needs of key external stakeholders that – if addressed – will accelerate technology adoption. This Business Case Study aims to bridge this gap by providing an updated design, TEA, and LCA based on PNNL’s FY23 R&D with added analyses and information that provide enhanced relevance for stakeholders of the HTL technology. This includes specific siting, regional wet waste resource inventory and transportation cost analyses, fuel market information, sustainable fuel policy impacts, economic metrics of net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis, and statistical analysis of cost and technical uncertainties of the HTL plant design. The study focuses on the “Detroit combined statistical area (CSA)” region for siting of a wet waste HTL plant adjacent to the Great Lakes Water Authority (GLWA) facility with guidance from industry participants. Regional resource and siting analyses were conducted to identify feedstock availability, scale, and cost, as well as a beneficial site location. TEA with detailed rigorous capital cost estimation for the specific site application was conducted to evaluate the key economic metrics of most value to industrial partners. These include total capital investment, operating costs, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of the biocrude and fuel blendstock, and NPV and internal rate of return IRR with sustainable fuel credits. Life cycle analysis was conducted to evaluate the supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the wet waste HTL process as compared with petroleum derived diesel. This study is also informed by years of R&D and process de-risking learnings and was conducted with a basic engineering HTL plant design and costing that akin to a “first-of-a-kind” plant economics. This differs from our conventional “nth plant ” SOT assessments. Specifically, the HTL process model has been updated with more operationally reliable methods for feed heating and phase separations. Further, we have implemented additional spare equipment for redundancy, a more rigorous installed equipment cost estimation approach, and additional costs associated with feed formatting and delivery, building, piping and site development. An Excel-based cost sheet based on the basic engineering design is also released alongside the report that allows users to conduct customized TEA with their own feed composition and financial assumptions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analysis Of Fracture Location on Tensile Graphite Samples

The main standard for testing the ultimate tensile strength of graphite is ASTM C749. Commercial entities have raised concerns about samples breaking outside of the gauge section, particularly in the radius or head of the sample. When this occurs, the data gathered from the samples is unusable and increases the cost of testing as more samples will need to be machined. This study investigates the locations and frequency of sample breakage for four different grades of graphite using a custom-made measurement scale. The four grades include two fine-grain (2114 and IG-110) and two medium/coarse-grain (NBG-17 and PCEA). Our results show that fine-grain grades are more susceptible to breaking outside the gauge section, with almost 30% of the samples from grade 2114 breaking outside this region. Additionally, the radius being too small causes stress concentrations near the ends of the gauge section resulting in a bimodal distribution of the fracture locations.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

LevSeq: Rapid Generation of Sequence-Function Data for Directed Evolution and Machine Learning

Sequence-function data provides valuable information about the protein functional landscape but is rarely obtained during directed evolution campaigns. Here, we present Long-read every variant Sequencing (LevSeq), a pipeline that combines a dual barcoding strategy with nanopore sequencing to rapidly generate sequence-function data for entire protein-coding genes. LevSeq integrates into existing protein engineering workflows and comes with open-source software for data analysis and visualization. The pipeline facilitates data-driven protein engineering by consolidating sequence-function data to inform directed evolution and provide the requisite data for machine learning-guided protein engineering (MLPE). LevSeq enables quality control of mutagenesis libraries prior to screening, which reduces time and resource costs. Simulation studies demonstrate LevSeq’s ability to accurately detect variants under various experimental conditions. Lastly, we show LevSeq’s utility in engineering protoglobins for new-to-nature chemistry. Widespread adoption of LevSeq and sharing of the data will enhance our understanding of protein sequence-function landscapes and empower data-driven directed evolution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

FleetREDI: Mail Delivery Class 6 Propane Trucks

Capturing real-world data is critical to reducing the barriers to technology advancement for commercial vehicles. FleetREDI’s insights provide detailed duty cycle information and highlight unique aspects of the given dataset. Each insight delivers a quick look at the collected data by summarizing the operation and identifying key findings of the initial analysis. This FleetREDI insight explores propane and diesel Class 6 mail delivery trucks. Propane-powered commercial vehicles can achieve the same duty cycles and match the power, acceleration, and cruising speeds of conventionally fueled vehicles. The primary goal of the project was to demonstrate alternative fuel vehicles in a mail transport application and evaluate the viability of propane as a cost-effective alternative to conventional diesel trucks. ![FleetREDI clean delivery trucks](FleetREDI-clean-delivery.jpg)

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Efficient data-driven regression for reduced-order modeling of spatial pattern formation

We present an efficient data-driven regression approach for constructing reduced-order models (ROMs) of reaction-diffusion systems exhibiting pattern formation. The ROMs are learned non-intrusively from available training data of physically accurate numerical simulations. The method can be applied to general nonlinear systems through the use of polynomial model form, while not requiring knowledge of the underlying physical model, governing equations, or numerical solvers. The process of learning ROMs is posed as a low-cost least-squares problem in a reduced-order subspace identified via Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD). Numerical experiments on classical pattern-forming systems–including the Schnakenberg and Mimura–Tsujikawa models–demonstrate that higher-order surrogate models significantly improve prediction accuracy while maintaining low computational cost. The proposed method provides a flexible, non-intrusive model reduction framework, well suited for the analysis of complex spatio-temporal pattern formation phenomena.

Data-driven modeling↗

DOE OSTI2026

FleetREDI: Mail Delivery Class 6 Propane Trucks

Capturing real-world data is critical to reducing the barriers to technology advancement for commercial vehicles. FleetREDI’s insights provide detailed duty cycle information and highlight unique aspects of the given dataset. Each insight delivers a quick look at the collected data by summarizing the operation and identifying key findings of the initial analysis. This FleetREDI insight explores propane and diesel Class 6 mail delivery trucks. Propane-powered commercial vehicles can achieve the same duty cycles and match the power, acceleration, and cruising speeds of conventionally fueled vehicles. The primary goal of the project was to demonstrate alternative fuel vehicles in a mail transport application and evaluate the viability of propane as a cost-effective alternative to conventional diesel trucks. ![FleetREDI clean delivery trucks](FleetREDI-clean-delivery.jpg)

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

FleetREDI: Mail Delivery Class 6 Propane Trucks

Capturing real-world data is critical to reducing the barriers to technology advancement for commercial vehicles. FleetREDI’s insights provide detailed duty cycle information and highlight unique aspects of the given dataset. Each insight delivers a quick look at the collected data by summarizing the operation and identifying key findings of the initial analysis. This FleetREDI insight explores propane and diesel Class 6 mail delivery trucks. Propane-powered commercial vehicles can achieve the same duty cycles and match the power, acceleration, and cruising speeds of conventionally fueled vehicles. The primary goal of the project was to demonstrate alternative fuel vehicles in a mail transport application and evaluate the viability of propane as a cost-effective alternative to conventional diesel trucks. ![FleetREDI clean delivery trucks](FleetREDI-clean-delivery.jpg)

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

FleetREDI: Mail Delivery Class 6 Propane Trucks

Capturing real-world data is critical to reducing the barriers to technology advancement for commercial vehicles. FleetREDI’s insights provide detailed duty cycle information and highlight unique aspects of the given dataset. Each insight delivers a quick look at the collected data by summarizing the operation and identifying key findings of the initial analysis. This FleetREDI insight explores propane and diesel Class 6 mail delivery trucks. Propane-powered commercial vehicles can achieve the same duty cycles and match the power, acceleration, and cruising speeds of conventionally fueled vehicles. The primary goal of the project was to demonstrate alternative fuel vehicles in a mail transport application and evaluate the viability of propane as a cost-effective alternative to conventional diesel trucks. ![FleetREDI clean delivery trucks](FleetREDI-clean-delivery.jpg)

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

FleetREDI: Mail Delivery Class 6 Propane Trucks

Capturing real-world data is critical to reducing the barriers to technology advancement for commercial vehicles. FleetREDI’s insights provide detailed duty cycle information and highlight unique aspects of the given dataset. Each insight delivers a quick look at the collected data by summarizing the operation and identifying key findings of the initial analysis. This FleetREDI insight explores propane and diesel Class 6 mail delivery trucks. Propane-powered commercial vehicles can achieve the same duty cycles and match the power, acceleration, and cruising speeds of conventionally fueled vehicles. The primary goal of the project was to demonstrate alternative fuel vehicles in a mail transport application and evaluate the viability of propane as a cost-effective alternative to conventional diesel trucks. ![FleetREDI clean delivery trucks](FleetREDI-clean-delivery.jpg)

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

FleetREDI: Mail Delivery Class 6 Propane Trucks

Capturing real-world data is critical to reducing the barriers to technology advancement for commercial vehicles. FleetREDI’s insights provide detailed duty cycle information and highlight unique aspects of the given dataset. Each insight delivers a quick look at the collected data by summarizing the operation and identifying key findings of the initial analysis. This FleetREDI insight explores propane and diesel Class 6 mail delivery trucks. Propane-powered commercial vehicles can achieve the same duty cycles and match the power, acceleration, and cruising speeds of conventionally fueled vehicles. The primary goal of the project was to demonstrate alternative fuel vehicles in a mail transport application and evaluate the viability of propane as a cost-effective alternative to conventional diesel trucks. ![FleetREDI clean delivery trucks](FleetREDI-clean-delivery.jpg)

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

TCO Analysis Approach and Regional Analysis of dWPT for Class 8 Tractors

Dynamic Wireless Power Transfer (dWPT) is a method by which battery electric vehicles (BEVs) can charge their battery while traveling on the road without the need for a physical conductive connection to the power source. dWPT has been proposed as a strategy to enable a reduction in vehicle battery capacity and associated mass and cost. In this slide deck presented at the EVs@Scale Consortium - Wireless Power Transfer Pillar Deep-Dive Meeting on November 11th, 2023, NREL provides results from an evaluation of dWPT using data from Class 8 tractors driving in the Atlanta Metro Area. NREL selected data for archetypal days representing local, regional, and long-haul trips, defined according to trip length, that included travel on primary roadways. EVI-InMotion (Electric Vehicle Infrastructure - InMotion), a systems planning and optimization tool developed at NREL, was used to evaluate dWPT performance assuming dWPT charging on 120 road segments for a total roadway lane distance of 2,365 miles. The EVI-InMotion results and representative day drive cycles were analyzed with NREL's T3CO (Transportation Technology Total Cost of Ownership) tool to estimate the total cost of ownership (TCO) for scenarios comprising two model years - 2030 and 2040 - and two technology progress cases. TCO was calculated for diesel, fuel cell electric, BEVs with batteries sized assuming no dWPT capabilities, and 200kWh BEVs with dWPT installed. This analysis finds that en-route stationary charging frequency and downtime when not on electrified roadways are the main contributors to TCO for the dWPT vehicles and that these vehicles can achieve cost parity with FCEVs at low electricity costs. Based on the scenario assumptions used here, low electricity costs would further help the cost parity with diesel vehicles in regional and long-haul cases due to stationary fueling downtime. This presentation also concludes that key factors affecting the parity potential of dWPT-capable vehicles include more extensive dWPT road coverage, higher en-route charging power, less expensive power batteries, and higher hydrogen or diesel fuel costs.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗