Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “cost projections”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Methods for Capturing System Interactions of Combined Technologies: A Study of PV + Battery

The costs of solar photovoltaics (PV) have been dropping in recent years, leading to increasing installations of solar PV systems and growing interest in how the technology will impact the electric grid at higher penetrations. Additionally, as battery costs decline it becomes important to understand the benefits and limitations of battery storage for the grid as well as potential benefits of co-locating battery storage and PV, particularly within the realm of future system planning. However, it is non-trivial to capture these potential benefits within a linearized capacity expansion model (CEM). This paper presents methodological developments to more fully represent the value and limitations of coupled PV and battery systems (PV + Battery) in CEMs using the Resource Planning Model (RPM), which co-optimizes capacity investments, transmission investments, and reduced-order dispatch in the Western Interconnection of North America through 2045. We use the model to simulate the evolution of the generation and transmission system under two core scenarios - a baseline scenario and a high renewable penetration scenario - coupled with sensitivities assuming low and midline PV and battery cost projections. When incorporating PV + battery, we find that it is important for CEMs to capture the ability of the coupled technology to provide firm capacity and reduce expected curtailment, compared to independent systems. These interactions can have even more dramatic impacts at higher solar penetrations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Examination of the Hydropower Licensing and Federal Authorization Process

Site-permitting and regulation are necessary to ensure hydropower projects (both original and relicensed) comply with statutory requirements and address multiple stakeholder priorities that consider a range of factors, including water quality, species protection, cultural resource impacts, and recreation. However, the time involved in acquiring a license for an individual hydropower project can be highly variable by project, leading to increased project costs, financial risks, and uncertainties. In part, this variability is the result of a regulatory structure that has evolved over time to include multiple approvals and compliance requirements administered by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), U.S. Army Corp of Engineers (USACE), federal land management agencies, federal and state resource agencies, and Indian Tribes. Ultimately, the time, benefits, costs, and risks to developers associated with hydropower regulatory processes and/or the preparation (e.g., studies) required for regulatory agency review are not well documented or synthesized in the public domain, which may increase uncertainty and variability within the process. This report addresses these needs by presenting results of a comprehensive examination of hydropower licensing including quantitative and qualitative analyses of timelines, causal factors, and their combined effect on risk and costs to developers.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Survey of Federal and State-Level Solar System Decommissioning Policies in the United States

In the United States, cumulative installed utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity reached more than 60 gigawatts (GW)dc at the end of 2020 (Davis et al. 2021b). Federal and state renewable energy and net-zero emissions policies will continue to drive solar development in the United States with installed utility-scale PV projected to quadruple (240 GWdc) by 2030 (Davis et al. 2021a; Heeter 2014). Although more than 75% of all U.S. installed utility-scale PV came online in the last 5 years, federal, state, and local governments are planning for system decommissioning (Davis et al. 2021b). Our research found that as of April 2021, one federal agency, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), and 15 U.S. states have solar decommissioning policies in place. North Carolina is also in the process of drafting solar decommissioning regulations, and at least 4 states (Maine, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Texas) proposed solar decommissioning bills in the 2021 legislative session. This report provides a survey and brief overview of both federal and U.S. statewide solar decommissioning policies, and a discussion of some of the potential impacts different policy designs may have on utility-scale solar development, including impacts that might influence construction timelines and over project costs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrating Concentrating Solar Power Technologies into the Hybrid Optimization and Performance Platform (HOPP)

As the world increases renewable energy deployment, there is an increasing interest in hybridizing various generation and storage technologies to maximize net benefit to the developer and/or off-taker. A particularly interesting combination of renewable technologies is concentrating solar power (CSP) with thermal energy storage (TES), photovoltaics (PV), and electrochemical battery energy storage (BESS). Due to the system complexity of CSP technology, it is difficult to evaluate the technological and financial performance of a CSP-PV hybrid system without detailed modeling of annual operations. To address this challenge, we have developed a modeling framework for evaluating the performance and financial viability of CSP systems hybridized with PV and battery technologies. This modeling effort incorporates CSP tower and trough systems into an existing modeling tool recently developed by NREL referred to as the Hybrid Optimization and Performance Platform (HOPP). This report outlines the modeling methodology as well as preliminary results from example case studies conducted using the model. The methodology describes: (i) the integration of CSP tower and troughs into HOPP using python interfaces to access System Advisor Model (SAM) underlining technology models, (ii) the mathematical formulation of the mixed integer linear program dispatch optimization model which optimizes operations of storage asset to either maximize system revenue or minimize operating cost while load following, (iii) the design analysis methods implemented within HOPP, and (iv) simulation clustering for the purposes of reducing computational expense. We exercise the model using a case study of a future scenario where we assume (i) CSP and PV technologies achieve the 2030 cost targets provided by the Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO), (ii) battery costs reduce to the 2030 mid cost projection presented by NREL. Lastly, (iii) electricity prices for southern California in 2030 are provided by NREL's Cambium database, and (iv) a capacity payment of $150/kW-yr based on the system capacity factor during the to 100 net-load hours.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2021

Underlying each of the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample in order to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level financial data (Fujita, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include: Discount rate estimation methods and rationale; -Data sources used and data limitations; -Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis; -Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis. Going forward, this report will be updated as data allow and analyses necessitate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2022

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: -Discount rate estimation methods and rationale -Data sources used and data limitations -Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis -Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis A version of this analysis was most recently released in 2022. Going forward, this report will be updated as data allow and analyses necessitate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2023

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process relying on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to estimate a business’ cost of equity, and by adding a risk adjustment factor to the risk-free rate associated with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to estimate their cost of debt. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: • Discount rate estimation methods and rationale • Data sources used and data limitations • Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis • Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Grid Resilience Plans: State Requirements, Utility Practices, and Utility Plan Template

As of June 2024, 14 states and one city require jurisdictional electric utilities to file resilience plans. Drawing on these requirements and filed plans, this report offers a standard template that states and utilities can consider to improve utility filings for grid resilience plans, either as part of a distribution system plan or as a separate filing. Key elements include a vulnerability assessment, description of proposed resilience programs, and projected costs and rate impacts. While many of these requirements and plans focus on extreme weather hazards, the template also can be used to address additional threats, including cyber and physical attacks and seismic events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spatiotemporal Adaptive Passive Direct Air Capture

Carbon Collect Inc., along with Arizona State University, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), PM Group, and Trimeric Corporation, completed an initial design of a commercial-scale, passive direct air capture (DAC) system termed “carbon trees” that will capture, separate, and store at least 100,000 tonnes/year of carbon dioxide (CO2) from air (net basis). Passive DAC is unique among DAC technologies in that passive air delivery by wind avoids the energy penalty of forced convection. Carbon Collect Inc.’s sorbent-agnostic approach offers the flexibility to choose sorbents for a wide range of climates. A combination of steam, low-grade heat, and vacuum releases the CO2 from the sorbent, which is extracted from the chamber and purified and compressed for geological storage. A commercial carbon tree forest combines the output of several thousand trees for compression and purification with high heat and energy integration. The project team prepared an initial engineering design package for each of three geographically diverse host sites throughout the United States to better understand the effect of local/regional ambient conditions on DAC system performance and project costs. A techno-economic analysis, life cycle analysis, business case analysis, and an environmental, health, and safety risks assessment were also completed for each of the three geographically diverse host sites.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evolving Competitive Markets in SAPP: Leveraging Competitive Wholesale Electricity Markets to Drive Renewable Generation Capacity in the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)

The SADC region has significant natural resource potential to increase renewable energy generation, improve electricity reliability, and support economic development. This research finds an apparent lack of confidence from electricity infrastructure investors in SAPP wholesale electricity markets, which increases risk perception and lowers the likelihood of capital deployment. With respect to free market fundamentals, competitive market obstacles and renewable energy development obstacles are characterized. Stakeholders identified the top obstacles to well-functioning competitive markets as insufficient transmission infrastructure for interconnection and regional movement of electricity, dominance of national single-buyer markets, and lack of or weak nation-state regulatory frameworks. Stakeholders prioritized the top three obstacles for renewable energy development as a lack of viable commercial arrangements for variable renewable energy (VRE) balancing, lack of functional and consistent nation-level regulations, and higher project costs related to reliance on imported equipment. With respect to potential solution options, stakeholders prioritized the development of new cost allocation and finance methods to facilitate new transmission expansion, training to educate new or potential new market entrants on SAPP processes, as well as modeling and analysis of regional SAPP participation benefits disaggregated to the nation-state level. From these perspectives, this research identified strategy options for consideration including transitioning SAPP to a regional transmission operator (RTO) for operation and planning of cross-border transmission facilities and market administration, shifting operations of SAPP member transmission systems to Independent System Operators (ISOs), establishing a regional regulatory authority and enhancing market data transparency. Implementing these reforms is expected to be challenging, but not insurmountable, given the domestic political, legal, and jurisdictional complexities of the SADC region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nuclear Direct Air Capture with Carbon Storage (NuDACCS) (Final Technical Report)

This final report, which is for DOE Award Number DE-FE0032160 (Direct Air Capture Combined with dedicated Long-Term Carbon Storage, Coupled to Existing Low-Carbon Energy), covers the Nuclear Direct Air Capture with Carbon Storage (NuDACCS) project period of performance from 03/31/2022 to 12/27/2024. Battelle Memorial Institute (Battelle) partnered with Aircapture LLC (Aircapture), Southern Company (Southern), Carbonvert, the University of Alabama, and Sargent & Lundy (S&L) to develop a front end engineering design (FEED) study for a direct air capture (DAC) system co-located with Southern Company's Joseph M. Farley Nuclear Plant (Plant Farley) in Columbia, Alabama. The DAC system was designed to capture at least 5,000 net tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year from ambient air in a form suitable for long duration carbon storage (e.g., geologic storage). To complement and support the FEED study, additional analyses were completed, including a Technology Maturation Plan (TMP); Workforce Readiness Plan; Project Cost Estimate; Business Case Analysis (BCA); Life Cycle Analysis (LCA); Environmental Health and Safety (EH&S) Assessment; and Environmental Justice (EJ) Analysis and Economic Revitalization and Job Creation Outcomes Analysis.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Summary of Carbon Dioxide Pipeline Systems and Incident Data in North America

Pipelines are historically seen as the primary transportation mode for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) streams in the context of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and oil and gas industries. Pipeline transmission of CO 2 over longer distances is regarded as most efficient and economical when the CO 2 is in the dense phase, i.e., in liquid or supercritical regime, due to transporting CO 2 in dense phase that allows for a smaller-diameter pipeline to move a given flow, which optimizes project cost.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Transformative Efficiency and Automation in Modular Homes (TEAMH)

This report documents the Transformative Efficiency and Automation in Modular Homes (TEAMH) project, which evaluates the integration of advanced building envelope technologies and automation-assisted modular construction to improve residential energy performance and construction efficiency. The study investigates high-performance insulation systems, including vacuum insulation panels (VIPs), combined with light gauge steel (LGS) modular construction and factory automation. Laboratory testing, whole-building energy modeling across multiple climate zones, and factory demonstrations were conducted to assess thermal performance, energy savings, and production efficiency. Results indicate that upgraded envelope assemblies can achieve up to ~50% heating and ~34% cooling energy savings relative to IECC 2018 code-compliant homes, while automation-assisted construction can reduce wall assembly time by 24%–46% compared to conventional wood framing. The findings demonstrate the potential for scalable, high-performance modular homes that deliver significant energy savings with competitive projected costs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity analysis of numerical modeling input parameters on floating offshore wind turbine loads

Abstract. Floating wind turbines must withstand a unique and challenging set of loads from the wind and ocean environment. To de-risk development, accurate predictions of these loads are necessary. Uncertainty in modeling predictions leads to larger required safety factors, increasing project costs and the levelized cost of energy. Complex aero-hydro-elastic modeling tools use many input parameters to represent the wind, waves, current, aerodynamic loads, hydrodynamic loads, and structural properties. It is helpful to understand which of these parameters ultimately drives a design. In this work, an ultimate and fatigue-proxy load sensitivity analysis was performed with 35 different input parameters, using an elementary effects approach to identify the most influential parameters for a case study involving the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 5 MW baseline wind turbine atop the OC4-DeepCwind semisubmersible during normal operation. The importance of each parameter was evaluated using 14 response quantities of interest across three operational wind speed conditions. The study concludes that turbulent wind velocity standard deviation is the parameter with the strongest sensitivity; this value is important not just for turbine loads, but also for the global system response. The system center of mass in the wind direction is found to have the highest impact on the system rotation and tower loads. The current velocity is found to be the most dominating parameter for the system global motion and consequently the mooring loads. All tested wind turbulence parameters in addition to the standard deviation are also found to be influential. Wave characteristics are influential for some fatigue-proxy loading but do not significantly impact the extreme ultimate loads in these operational load cases. The required number of random seeds for stochastic environmental conditions is considered to ensure that the sensitivities are due to the input parameters and not due to the seed. The required number of analysis points in the parameter space is identified so that the conclusions represent a global sensitivity. The results are specific to the platform, turbine, and choice of parameter ranges, but the demonstrated approach can be applied widely to guide focus in parameter uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1972

Refurbishment cost study of the thermal protection system of a space shuttle vehicle, phase 2

Labor costs and techniques associated with the refurbishment of representative TPS and their attach concepts suitable for space shuttle application have been identified on the basis of experimental tests. Ablative and reusable surface insulation TPS configurations were designed, fabricated, and tested on a full-scale mockup. The TPS attachment methods investigated included pi-strap, multiple mechanical fasteners, key/keyway, and direct bond concepts. Techniques for performing installation, inspection, repair and replacement of TPS components were studied by examining a variety of shop procedures. Major problem areas associated with these procedures and the designs to which they were applied were analyzed for several significant parameters such as handling, gaskets between joints, repair techniques, ablator plugs, etc. Results of time and motion studies of specific maintenance tasks, simulating operational procedures, were obtained. Using these data, refurbishment labor cost projections were generated for a representative Space Shuttle orbiter.

Haas, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Study of water recovery and solid waste processing for aerospace and domestic applications. Volume 2: Final report

The manner in which current and advanced technology can be applied to develop practical solutions to existing and emerging water supply and waste disposal problems is evaluated. An overview of water resource factors as they affect new community planning, and requirements imposed on residential waste treatment systems are presented. The results of equipment surveys contain information describing: commercially available devices and appliances designed to conserve water; devices and techniques for monitoring water quality and controlling back contamination; and advanced water and waste processing equipment. System concepts are developed and compared on the basis of current and projected costs. Economic evaluations are based on community populations of from 2,000 to 250,000. The most promising system concept is defined in sufficient depth to initiate detailed design.

Guarneri, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Water recovery and solid waste processing for aerospace and domestic applications

The work is described accomplished in compiling information needed to establish the current water supply and waste water processing requirements for dwellings, and for developing a preliminary design for a waste water to potable water management system. Data generated was used in formulation of design criteria for the preliminary design of the waste water to potable water recycling system. The system as defined was sized for a group of 500 dwelling units. Study tasks summarized include: water consumption, nature of domestic water, consumer appliances for low water consumption, water quality monitoring, baseline concept, and current and projected costs.

Murawczyk, C.↗
NASA NTRS1973

MAR-SI, Martin Surface Insulation

The development of an alumina/silicate based composite material for space shuttle reusable surface insulation is reported. Physical property determinations, environmental testing, design analysis, and projected costs for a thermal protection system are outlined.

Plank, P. P.↗