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2025 Large Load Literature Review

This literature review catalogs more than 90 publications focused on large loads, and groups the documents and resources thematically into 12 categories, (listed below). The 2026 Large Load Literature Review and Data Sources summary reports are available here: https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/2026-large-load-literature-review -Load forecasting -Data sources -Reliability and resource adequacy -Large load interconnection -Demand flexibility -Generation -Co-location -Data center location/infrastructure -Large load tariffs -Policy options -Maps and tools -Design and operations

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Lockdown impacts on residential electricity demand in India: A data-driven and non-intrusive load monitoring study using Gaussian mixture models

This study evaluates the effect of complete nationwide lockdown in 2020 on residential electricity demand across 13 Indian cities and the role of digitalisation using a public smart meter dataset. We undertake a data-driven approach to explore the energy impacts of work-from-home norms across five dwelling typologies. Our methodology includes climate correction, dimensionality reduction and machine learning-based clustering using Gaussian Mixture Models of daily load curves. Results show that during the lockdown, maximum daily peak demand increased by 150-200% as compared to 2018 and 2019 levels for one room-units (RM1), one bedroom-units (BR1) and two bedroom-units (BR2) which are typical for low- and middle-income families. While the upper-middle- and higher-income dwelling units (i.e., three (3BR) and more-than-three bedroom-units (M3BR)) saw night-time demand rise by almost 44% in 2020, as compared to 2018 and 2019 levels. Our results also showed that new peak demand emerged for the lockdown period for RM1, BR1 and BR2 dwelling typologies. We found that the lack of supporting socioeconomic and climatic data can restrict a comprehensive analysis of demand shocks using similar public datasets, which informed policy implications for India's digitalisation. We further emphasised improving the data quality and reliability for effective data-centric policymaking.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Synthetic data generation for machine learning model training for energy theft scenarios using cosimulation

Abstract Technical and non‐technical losses in distribution circuits result in significant economic costs to power utilities. One type of non‐technical loss is energy theft by various means including illegal tapping of feeders, bypassing the meter, and billing fraud. These losses are usually hard to detect, and can remain undetected for long periods of time. Machine learning models have been proven effective in detecting these conditions, but rely on the availability of large, good‐quality training data sets. The problem is exacerbated by the imbalanced nature of data related to these conditions—energy theft, though costly, is very rare. The available data sets generally have very few samples of theft with most of the data pertaining to normal operation. Such data sets are generally not suitable to train machine learning models. In this paper, an overview of energy theft detection techniques, the challenges with their data needs, and the limitations of current techniques to bridge such data limitations is presented. A co‐simulation framework is proposed to generate reliable training data for machine learning algorithms for theft detection. An example scenario is presented and a machine learning model is built to detect certain kinds of energy theft.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Retail Hydrogen Station Reliability Status and Advances

One of the most vital emerging commercial markets for hydrogen is fuel cell-powered mobility including cars, trucks, and buses. These vehicles are refueled via a network of hydrogen fueling stations, with the highest number of U.S. stations being in California. The numbers of both fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and hydrogen stations have increased in the last two years, with anecdotal information from FCEV drivers indicating that station reliability is hurting the consumer acceptability of FCEV technologies. Therefore, this study benchmarks the current state of hydrogen station reliability in practice and presents on-going research that is investigating the failures that are contribute to hydrogen station reliability issues. This is accomplished with an analysis of operation, safety, and maintenance data from hydrogen stations and fuel cell electric vehicles to benchmark the maintenance and failure of hydrogen stations and their components. This analysis, of over 5,000 station maintenance events, presents the leading maintenance categories and failure rates, and is a prerequisite to the development of data-driven reliability improvement plans. We present a reliability growth analysis and on-going research into the root causes of failure for dispensers, a particularly failure-prone subsystem.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Chapter 14: Dynamic Flux Analysis: An Experimental Approach of Fluxomics

Metabolic flux analysis represents an essential perspective to understand cellular physiology and offers quantitative information to guide pathway engineering. A valuable approach for experimental elucidation of metabolic flux is dynamic flux analysis, which estimates the relative or absolute flow rates through a series of metabolic intermediates in a given pathway. It is based on kinetic isotope labeling experiments, liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS), and computational analysis that relate kinetic isotope trajectories of metabolites to pathway activity. Herein, we illustrate the mathematic principles underlying the dynamic flux analysis and mainly focus on describing the experimental procedures for data generation. This protocol is exemplified using cyanobacterial metabolism as an example, for which reliable labeling data for central carbon metabolites can be acquired quantitatively. This protocol is applicable to other microbial systems as well and can be readily adapted to address different metabolic processes.

BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement of the U 235 ( n , f ) prompt fission neutron spectrum from 10 keV to 10 MeV induced by neutrons of energy from 1 MeV to 20 MeV

The characterization of fission-driven nuclear systems primarily relies on calculations of neutron-induced chain reactions, and these calculations require evaluated nuclear data as input. Calculation accuracy heavily depends on input nuclear data evaluation accuracy, and thus high precision on the experimental input to the nuclear data evaluation is essential for fundamental quantities like the energy spectrum of neutrons emitted from neutron-induced fission (i.e., the prompt fission neutron spectrum, PFNS). Despite decades of measurement efforts, prior to the measurements described in this work there were only three literature data sets for the 235 U(n,f) PFNS at incident neutron energies above 1.0 MeV considered reliable for inclusion in nuclear data evaluations and no reliable data sets above 3.0 MeV incident neutron energy. In this work we report on new measurements of the 235 U(n,f) PFNS spanning a grid of 1.0–20.0 MeV in incident neutron energy and 0.01–10.0 MeV in outgoing (PFNS) neutron energy. These measurements were carried out at the Weapons Neutron Research facility at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center and used a multifoil parallel-plate avalanche counter target with both a Li-glass and a liquid scintillator detector array in separate experiments to span the quoted outgoing neutron energy ranges. The PFNS results are shown in terms of the energy spectra themselves as well as the average PFNS energy $(\langle{E}\rangle)$ and ratios of $\langle{E}\rangle$ at forward and backward angles. Here, the results are compared with literature data and selected nuclear data evaluations. Generally, the data agree with the ENDF/B-VIII.0 evaluation below 5.0-MeV incident neutron energy and more closely with the JEFF-3.3 evaluation above 5.0 MeV, though no evaluations considered for comparison in this work agree with the data across all of the incident and outgoing neutron energies shown, especially in regions where the third-chance fission process becomes available. Additionally, we show a ratio of the present PFNS results for 235 U(n, f) with a recent and highly correlated experiment to measure the 239 Pu(n, f) PFNS at the same experimental facility and with nearly identical equipment and analysis procedures. Many observations reported in this work are the first of their kind and represent significant advancements for knowledge of the 235 U(n, f) PFNS.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Identification of Performance Shaping Factor Lag and Linger Effects for Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis: Application of Experimental Data

Many researchers have emphasized the importance of dynamic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), which highlights the necessity of studies for dynamic human reliability analysis (HRA). Dynamic HRA concentrates on a dynamic account of human actions or how performance shaping factors (PSFs) can dynamically modify the human error probability (HEP) over time. In contrast, existing static HRA does not consider human actions as changes over time or event progressions. Accordingly, previous research on dynamic HRA conceptually suggested PSF lag and linger effects to treat dependence between operator actions in dynamic HRA versus existing approaches. As follow-up research, this study attempted to identify PSF lag and linger effects for dynamic HRA on the basis of experimental data. Firstly, mathematical models for PSF lag and linger effects were developed based on a literature survey in the field of biology. Secondly, we analyzed experimental scenarios from a control room study to identify operator actions considered in PSA. Lastly, based on the experimental data, the effect of the stress PSF with lag and linger effects was compared to that without PSF lag and linger effects. This paper concludes with an overall discussion of PSF lag and linger effects based on the relation between the stress PSF and error occurrence.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Cybersecurity impact of the growth of data in sports

As the sporting industry continues to increase dependence on new and often massive data sets, they also risk exposing themselves, as well as the leagues, teams, venues, players, and fans, to risks posed by not protecting the confidentiality and integrity of this data. The industry, especially true for professional sports, demands an ever increasing supply of new forms of data to achieve their goals of enticing new fans; enhancing experience; expanding the fan experience from venues and television to the internet and mobile devices; measuring and evaluating the performance and safety of players; and increasing revenue. New methods have emerged to collect data about a variety of aspects of sports ranging from players to fans to teams to venues. Data collected during sporting events is combined with historical data to also help teams analyze and predict performance. To synthesize these predictive analytical and historical memories, sports teams and organizations mix a variety of computer technologies. System integration tends to focus on ensuring the availability of the data and reliability of the technologies but might introduce risks to the confidentiality (privacy) and integrity of the data. Recognizing the potential risks requires review and evaluation. Much of the data is collected for publicly providing information to the fans, so threats to confidentiality pose fewer risks. The greatest risk is violating the privacy of players, such a private performance test, or using technology to gain a competitive advantage.

Jenkins, Stephanie↗

Natural Language Processing-Enhanced Nuclear Industry Operating Experience Data Analysis: Aggregation and Interpretation of Multi-Report Analysis Results

Industry-wide operating experience is a critical source of raw data for reliability and risk model parameter estimations for nuclear power plants. A large portion of operating experience data are failure events stored as reports that contain unstructured data, such as narratives. In current practice, a failure report is usually reviewed and manually coded by analysts. The coding is based on extracting several event characteristics such as system name, component type, sub-part type, failure mode, and failure cause. Event narratives are mostly used to help understand events and extract their characteristics. In this line of research, we aim to maximize the usage of event narratives by leveraging natural language processing (NLP) methods to automatically convert an event narrative to a causal graph. This research has promise to improve physical understanding of failure initiation and propagation and to facilitate use of non-failure data (e.g., near-misses and degradations) to complement the limited data pool of failures. In our previous work, we developed an NLP tool and applied it to analyze a number of licensee event reports submitted by U.S. nuclear power plants to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. In this paper, we will report our recent research progress in aggregating the results of multiple reports, developing network model(s), and drawing statistical insights.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Micromechanical Surrogate Machine Learning Model for Creep Deformation Modeling

Process variability during the manufacture of gas turbine engine hot section components can significantly affect the material’s resulting microstructure. In casting, for instance, geometric variation within a component (thin sections versus thick sections, radial location) influences cooling rates and the resulting grain size. The high temperature creep response is known to be sensitive to grain size owing to a diffusional creep mechanism which occurs more readily along grain boundaries. Microstructural variation correspondingly drives mechanical behavior which propagates into component scale performance uncertainty. These factors are essential when planning inspection, maintenance, and repair strategies within a reliability framework. These benefits provide opportunities to increase overall energy efficiency through refined margins. Critically, there is an opportunity to bolster existing data-driven reliability models using physics-driven process-structure-property relations. Here we present recent work establishing a framework for evaluating the probabilistic creep performance of high-temperature materials. A novel microstructure-sensitive crystal plasticity finite element model is established that captures both grain boundary and crystallographic deformation effects. The computationally expensive physics model is calibrated using a statistical approach and this high-fidelity model is subsequently used to train a computationally efficient machine learning surrogate model. The surrogate model is essential for sampling a large ensemble of simulated structure-property pair results. The ensemble data are then mined to extract salient trends to be incorporated into a microstructure-sensitive reliability model. The proposed approach represents a novel way to capture microstructure-sensitive trends from physics-based models within a modern reliability framework.

Fernandez-Zelaia, Patxi [ORNL]↗

A VOI Web Application for Distinct Geothermal Domains: Statistical Evaluation of Different Data Types within the Great Basin

The Great Basin region contains different domains that have different structural and hydrothermal flow patterns. Depending on the characteristics of these patterns, certain data types may be more successful at detecting hidden geothermal resources. In this paper, we quantitatively evaluate if certain data types are more successful in certain domains. Given different aquifer, strain and structural conditions, we explore which data types statistically reveal positively labeled geothermal sites. We utilize value of information (VOI) metrics to help quantify the reliability of data types to discriminate against "positive" and "negative" labeled geothermal sites. We also evaluate how kernel density estimation can help generalize the statistics that inform VOI, which is necessary given the limited data in geothermal exploration. Except for the Carbonate Aquifer, the highest ranking of the Vimperfect is the Local Structural Setting. Next, the slip and dilation tendency is first for Carbonate Aquifer and second for Central Nevada Seismic Belt and Western Great Basin. For the Carbonate Aquifer, heat flow is has the lowest Vimperfect value compared to the other three domains, which is consistent with the understanding of how heat flow measurements are masked by regional groundwater flow.

Bayesian analysis↗

A large interlaboratory electron diffraction study of monolayer graphene

Standardisation of data collection and analysis is essential to enable commercialisation of 2D materials in a wide range of technologies. Selected area electron diffraction (SAED) in the transmission electron microscope (TEM) is one of the key methods for distinguishing monolayer from bilayer and few-layer graphene by comparing the 1st and 2nd order diffraction spot intensities. Yet there are many factors that can affect the reliability of data collection and interpretation, causing the measurement of monolayer samples to deviate from the literature boundary condition of $I_{\{\bar{2}110\}}$$/$$I_{\{1\bar{1}00\}}$ < 1 for monolayer graphene (1LG). Here we present the results of a large interlaboratory SAED comparison study, where 15 international laboratories measured and analysed nominally identical samples of chemical vapour deposited graphene. Large variations were observed in the measured ratios of diffraction spot intensities, with the largest variance associated with poor quality SAED data resulting from inadequate specimen handling and storage. To inform the reliable determination of monolayer thickness from SAED patterns we provide a description of best practice for specimen handling, TEM operation, data collection and analysis. This work was undertaken within VAMAS Technical Working Area 41: Graphene and related 2D materials—Project 9, the results of which have been directly incorporated into ISO/TS 21356–2 for the characterisation of graphene sheets. We find that when this methodology is followed, 1LG can be distinguished from bilayer or thicker material with high confidence where analysis of a single SAED pattern gives $I_{\{\bar{2}110\}}$$/$$I_{\{1\bar{1}00\}}$ < 1.2, even in the absence of precise specimen tilting.

2D materials↗

Measured and satellite-derived albedo data for estimating bifacial photovoltaic system performance

The albedo of the ground surface is an important factor in the cost-effectiveness of a bifacial photovoltaic (PV) system. To improve the availability of reliable albedo data, datasets of ground albedo and associated meteorological data were developed by using existing measurement network data and data measured by the PV industry. The measured datasets include time-series data as well as summary information of tabular monthly and yearly data and plots of monthly and hourly albedo values. Satellite-derived values of albedo are available from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB). The NSRDB albedos were compared to the measured albedos for Surface Radiation budget (SURFRAD) network locations for the period 2001–2017, and the mean bias difference results were from -0.044 to +0.056. Overall, these differences are greater than the albedo measurement uncertainty of ±0.02; consequently, the NSRDB albedos should be used with caution for estimating the performance of bifacial PV systems. Differences between SURFRAD and NSRDB albedos are attributed to the NSRDB method for determining albedo and to the ground surfaces within the NSRDB 4 km spatial resolution pixel consisting of a mixture of surface types rather than just the single surface types viewed by the albedometers at the SURFRAD stations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Simulator Data Analysis to Inform Digitalized Environment Impacts on Human Reliability

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has developed a human reliability analysis (HRA) method, termed the Integrated Human Event Analysis System for Event and Condition Assessment (IDHEAS-ECA), in order to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in risk-informed regulatory applications. To update the quantification part of IDHEAS-ECA, the NRC required human performance and error data from fully digitalized main control rooms (MCRs); therefore, it requested that Idaho National Laboratory (INL) revisit previous data collection studies and investigate how the following three factors impact human reliability: self-checking, peer-checking, and automation. The HRA data collection studies revisited were the Human Reliability Data Extraction (HuREX) project, developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), and the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP), developed by INL. HuREX is a representative HRA data collection study that collects human reliability data from full-scope simulators staffed by licensed operators. SHEEP, on the other hand, has been proposed to complement such full-scope studies by collecting data via simplified simulators staffed by non-licensed student operators. In the HuREX study, KAERI collected HRA data from fully digitalized MCRs for the Advanced Power Reactor (APR)–1400. The SHEEP data were obtained from simplified simulators that partially mimicked the features of digitalized MCRs. The present report mainly discusses how the impacts of the aforementioned three factors on human errors were derived from these two data collection studies.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Extracting Resilience Metrics From Distribution Utility Data Using Outage and Restore Process Statistics

Resilience curves track the accumulation and restoration of outages during an event on an electric distribution grid. We show that a resilience curve generated from utility data can always be decomposed into an outage process and a restore process and that these processes generally overlap in time. We use many events in real utility data to characterize the statistics of these processes, and derive formulas based on these statistics for resilience metrics such as restore duration, customer hours not served, and outage and restore rates. The formulas express the mean value of these metrics as a function of the number of outages in the event. We also give a formula for the variability of restore duration, which allows us to predict a maximum restore duration with 95% confidence. Overall, we give a simple and general way to decompose resilience curves into outage and restore processes and then show how to use these processes to extract resilience metrics from standard distribution system data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

G EANT 4 atomic relaxation data for transfermium nuclei (Z = 101–104)

Advanced theoretical methods can accurately calculate various atomic observables and predict electronic structure. Still, systematic computations of the radiative and non-radiative transition probabilities and energies are missing for the actinides and all the transfermium elements. However, these compilations are needed for comprehensive Monte-Carlo simulations (such as GEANT4) of the radioactive decay of transfermium nuclei. These simulations can forma basis for data analysis of experiments, especially with complex detection setups. Investigation of the transfermium nuclei is crucial for understanding the nature of the nuclear force. In this study, simulations based on data from the Jena Atomic Calculator (JAC) and the data from the Evaluated Atomic Data Library (EADL) present in GEANT4 were found compatible for the three elements Ba(Z = 56), U(Z = 92), and Fm(Z = 100), thus, validating the JAC calculations. For Z> 100, we also found sound agreement between simulations that used data generated with JAC and experimental results involving No(Z = 102) and Rf(Z = 104) isotopes. In conclusion, these results demonstrate that JAC can produce reliable atomic data sets for transfermium elements, which will assist in analyzing nuclear-decay-spectroscopy experiments.

GEANT4↗

SeismoGen: Seismic Waveform Synthesis Using GAN With Application to Seismic Data Augmentation

Abstract Detecting earthquake arrivals within seismic time series can be a challenging task. Visual, human detection has long been considered the gold standard but requires intensive manual labor that scales poorly to large data sets. In recent years, automatic detection methods based on machine learning have been developed to improve the accuracy and efficiency. However, the accuracy of those methods relies on access to a sufficient amount of high‐quality labeled training data, often tens of thousands of records or more. We aim to resolve this dilemma by answering two questions: (1) provided with a limited amount of reliable labeled data, can we use them to generate additional, realistic synthetic waveform data? and (2) can we use those synthetic data to further enrich the training set through data augmentation, thereby enhancing detection algorithms? To address these questions, we use a generative adversarial network (GAN), a type of machine learning model which has shown supreme capability in generating high‐quality synthetic samples in multiple domains. Once trained, our GAN model is capable of producing realistic seismic waveforms of multiple labels (noise and event classes). Applied to real Earth seismic data sets in Oklahoma, we show that data augmentation from our GAN‐generated synthetic waveforms can be used to improve earthquake detection algorithms in instances when only small amounts of labeled training data are available.

Wang, Tiantong↗

State Machine Operation of Complex Systems

Operation of complex systems which depend on one, or more, sub-systems with many process variables often operate in more than one state. For each state there may be a variety of parameters of interest, and for each of these, one may require different alarm limits, different archiving needs, and have different critical parameters. Relying on operators to reliably change 102-105 parameters for each system for each state is unreasonable. Not changing these parameters results in alarms being ignored or disabled, critical changes missed, and/or data archiving inefficiencies. To reliably manage the operation of complex systems, such as cryomodules (CMs), Fermilab is implementing state machines for each CM and an over-arching state machine for the PIP-II superconducting LINAC (SCL). The state machine transitions and operating parameters are stored/restored to/from a configuration database. Proper implementation of the state machines will not only ensure safe and reliable operation of the CMs, but will help ensure reliable data quality. A description of PIP-II SCL, details of the state machines, and plans for imminent use the state machines for CM testing will be discussed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗