Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “decision analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11

Using Coordinated, Multi-Agent Platforms for Dynamic Ocean Worlds Science

Planetary science missions have the opportunity to enhance science return through deployment of autonomous capabilities designed to dynamically respond to new information. Future outer solar system missions to ocean worlds in particular would benefit from this technology - intelligent science payloads (ISP) - because it would allow for a coordinated, near real-time response to ephemeral ‘events’ such as plumes, tectonism, surface implantation, volatile releases, thermal and magnetic anomalies, or radiation, as well as increasing the cadence and coverage of data collection. Prioritization and decision-making frameworks from ISP could be deployed at various scales - from analysis onboard a spacecraft with multiple instruments – to coordinated analyses among separate spacecraft in an e.g., distributed systems mission (DSM) composed of multiple SmallSats. Goddard’s Intelligent Science Payload team is developing an agile autonomous architecture for an icy ocean worlds DSM concept. Our goals are to coordinate data collection and onboard data analysis, and to make autonomous decisions for new data collection and analysis based on science priorities between multiple spacecraft with variable instrumentation and orbits. We use a range of data analysis tools to coordinate the DSM response, spanning from observations of data over a specified threshold to more computationally intensive machine learning algorithms (ML). ML algorithms here currently focus on determining the composition of an ocean world using mass spectrometry, and specifically methods for understanding ‘novelties’ and potential biosignatures. These algorithms could be used to quickly process and analyze onboard data that would be significantly delayed in downlink due to long communication delays for outer solar system missions in order to make dynamic science observations. Our ocean worlds case study ISP architecture is intended as an ‘agile’ and modular framework that could be used as a whole or as particular modules based on mission needs.

Distributed Systems↗

Soft-decision decoding techniques for linear block codes and their error performance analysis

The first paper presents a new minimum-weight trellis-based soft-decision iterative decoding algorithm for binary linear block codes. The second paper derives an upper bound on the probability of block error for multilevel concatenated codes (MLCC). The bound evaluates difference in performance for different decompositions of some codes. The third paper investigates the bit error probability code for maximum likelihood decoding of binary linear codes. The fourth and final paper included in this report is concerns itself with the construction of multilevel concatenated block modulation codes using a multilevel concatenation scheme for the frequency non-selective Rayleigh fading channel.

Lin, Shu↗

Sensor fusion II: Human and machine strategies; Proceedings of the Meeting, Philadelphia, PA, Nov. 6-9, 1989

Various papers on human and machine strategies in sensor fusion are presented. The general topics addressed include: active vision, measurement and analysis of visual motion, decision models for sensor fusion, implementation of sensor fusion algorithms, applying sensor fusion to image analysis, perceptual modules and their fusion, perceptual organization and object recognition, planning and the integration of high-level knowledge with perception, using prior knowledge and context in sensor fusion.

Schenker, Paul S.↗

Realtime Decision Making on EO-1 Using Onboard Science Analysis

Recent autonomy experiments conducted on Earth Observing 1 (EO-1) using the Autonomous Sciencecraft Experiment (ASE) flight software has been used to classify key features in hyperspectral images captured by EO-1. Furthermore, analysis is performed by this software onboard EO-1 and then used to modify the operational plan without interaction from the ground. This paper will outline the overall operations concept and provide some details and examples of the onboard science processing, science analysis, and replanning.

Sherwood, Robert↗

A Science-Focused Artificial Intelligence (AI) Responding in Real-Time to New Information: Capability Demonstration for Ocean World Missions

Introduction: Artificial intelligence (AI) has long been considered a potential mechanism to explore increasingly challenging environments, including those with extreme temperatures and pressures, limited communication capabilities, or those with demanding terrain. We posit that missions in extreme environments could deploy an onboard AI focused on science observations and goals in order to augment a traditional concept(s) of operations (ConOps). An onboard AI capability could perform functions such as data analysis in order to make high-level decisions, including prioritized data transmission for analysis by ground-based teams or autonomously-guided follow-on analyses that maximize science return. Such a capability would empower missions to respond to scientific data of interest in real-time; a mission could make observations and perform a preliminary analysis to alert ground-based scientists to an observation of interest, enabling an informed, rapid response from Earth-based teams. Enceladus Case Study for Onboard AI: We are developing an onboard AI capability for real-time telemetry response that formulates and carries-out informed decisions in service to established mission goals, enabling increased science return of a mission. We focus our AI development for use on a constellation of SmallSats orbiting Enceladus. Our Enceladus case study tests autonomous decision-making capabilities in scenarios with complex orbital dynamics, plume ejecta, extreme cold environments, power restrictions, and a requirement to maximize science return for a potential positive detection of life, while critically evaluating the potential for false positives. Telemetry includes simulated scientific data, spacecraft onboard operational data (e.g., position, velocity, and rotation), and engineering hardware performance data. Enceladus SmallSat Constellation. Our constellation includes eight SmallSat spacecraft in an 8:35 resonant orbit-based formation, leveraging Saturn’s gravitational forces to maintain stable orbits with global coverage around Enceladus. To our knowledge, we simulate the first stable configuration of multiple spacecraft in closed orbits around Enceladus, using a full ephemeris force model (Russell and Lara, 2009). Each spacecraft’s orbit will precess, causing an eastward ground track shift (from an orbiter’s perspective) of each spacecraft for each orbit. However, all spacecraft return to their original positions relative to Enceladus after eight Enceladus revolutions around Saturn. We model communication pathways between SmallSats to understand how information would need to be transmitted across the constellation to enable AI-driven decision-making and resource allocation across the fleet. Capability Demonstration. Our simulated capability demonstration inputs position, velocity, and rotation telemetry from our Enceladus-focused constellation simulations, and mass spectrometry data collected from abiotic and biotic laboratory-analog ocean world experiments (Theiling et al., 2018; Theiling, 2021; Da Poian et al., 2023). Data from these experiments are used to simulate MS measurements and different scenarios of science observations for onboard analysis performed on each of the eight spacecraft. For these demonstrations, we integrate 24 machine learning (ML) algorithms into an onboard intelligence as a ‘knowledge base’, including algorithms evaluating data quality and those predicting (with % confidence) gas composition, ocean aqueous chemistry, and whether the sample was influenced by microbial life. The onboard AI capability is designed to use the knowledge base to come to a consensus-based decision in the interpretation of the observed data in order to request additional action outside of a pre-defined ConOps. Requested actions could include e.g., prioritized downlink to Earth (for analysis by ground-based teams) or follow-on analyses performed across the constellation. The spacecraft’s intelligent onboard planner must then determine whether sufficient resources (e.g., time, power, etc.) are available and weigh the request with mission priorities. In our simulation, the constellation is able to identify potential biosignatures using onboard ML algorithms, evaluate the confidence of that prediction, and perform follow-on analyses across the fleet to confirm the detection, in order to best prepare a transmission of these data to Earth-based teams.

astrobiology↗

Soft Decision Analyzer

We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

Lansdowne, Chatwin↗

Theory of the decision/problem state

A theory of the decision-problem state was introduced and elaborated. Starting with the basic model of a decision-problem condition, an attempt was made to explain how a major decision-problem may consist of subsets of decision-problem conditions composing different condition sequences. In addition, the basic classical decision-tree model was modified to allow for the introduction of a series of characteristics that may be encountered in an analysis of a decision-problem state. The resulting hierarchical model reflects the unique attributes of the decision-problem state. The basic model of a decision-problem condition was used as a base to evolve a more complex model that is more representative of the decision-problem state and may be used to initiate research on decision-problem states.

Dieterly, D. L.↗

Proceedings of the Second NASA Formal Methods Symposium

This publication contains the proceedings of the Second NASA Formal Methods Symposium sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and held in Washington D.C. April 13-15, 2010. Topics covered include: Decision Engines for Software Analysis using Satisfiability Modulo Theories Solvers; Verification and Validation of Flight-Critical Systems; Formal Methods at Intel -- An Overview; Automatic Review of Abstract State Machines by Meta Property Verification; Hardware-independent Proofs of Numerical Programs; Slice-based Formal Specification Measures -- Mapping Coupling and Cohesion Measures to Formal Z; How Formal Methods Impels Discovery: A Short History of an Air Traffic Management Project; A Machine-Checked Proof of A State-Space Construction Algorithm; Automated Assume-Guarantee Reasoning for Omega-Regular Systems and Specifications; Modeling Regular Replacement for String Constraint Solving; Using Integer Clocks to Verify the Timing-Sync Sensor Network Protocol; Can Regulatory Bodies Expect Efficient Help from Formal Methods?; Synthesis of Greedy Algorithms Using Dominance Relations; A New Method for Incremental Testing of Finite State Machines; Verification of Faulty Message Passing Systems with Continuous State Space in PVS; Phase Two Feasibility Study for Software Safety Requirements Analysis Using Model Checking; A Prototype Embedding of Bluespec System Verilog in the PVS Theorem Prover; SimCheck: An Expressive Type System for Simulink; Coverage Metrics for Requirements-Based Testing: Evaluation of Effectiveness; Software Model Checking of ARINC-653 Flight Code with MCP; Evaluation of a Guideline by Formal Modelling of Cruise Control System in Event-B; Formal Verification of Large Software Systems; Symbolic Computation of Strongly Connected Components Using Saturation; Towards the Formal Verification of a Distributed Real-Time Automotive System; Slicing AADL Specifications for Model Checking; Model Checking with Edge-valued Decision Diagrams; and Data-flow based Model Analysis.

Munoz, Cesar↗

Development of Risk Uncertainty Factors from Historical NASA Projects

NASA is a good investment of federal funds and strives to provide the best value to the nation. NASA has consistently budgeted to unrealistic cost estimates, which are evident in the cost growth in many of its programs. In this investigation, NASA has been using available uncertainty factors from the Aerospace Corporation, Air Force, and Booz Allen Hamilton to develop projects risk posture. NASA has no insight into the developmental of these factors and, as demonstrated here, this can lead to unrealistic risks in many NASA Programs and projects (P/p). The primary contribution of this project is the development of NASA missions uncertainty factors, from actual historical NASA projects, to aid cost-estimating as well as for independent reviews which provide NASA senior management with information and analysis to determine the appropriate decision regarding P/p. In general terms, this research project advances programmatic analysis for NASA projects.

Amer, Tahani R.↗

Analysis of ETMS Data Quality for Traffic Flow Management Decisions

The data needed for air traffic flow management decision support tools is provided by the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS). This includes both the tools that are in current use and the ones being developed for future deployment. Since the quality of decision support provided by all these tools will be influenced by the quality of the input ETMS data, an assessment of ETMS data quality is needed. Motivated by this desire, ETMS data quality is examined in this paper in terms of the unavailability of flight plans, deviation from the filed flight plans, departure delays, altitude errors and track data drops. Although many of these data quality issues are not new, little is known about their extent. A goal of this paper is to document the magnitude of data quality issues supported by numerical analysis of ETMS data. Guided by this goal, ETMS data for a 24-hour period were processed to determine the number of aircraft with missing flight plan messages at any given instant of time. Results are presented for aircraft above 18,000 feet altitude and also at all altitudes. Since deviation from filed flight plan is also a major cause of trajectory-modeling errors, statistics of deviations are presented. Errors in proposed departure times and ETMS-generated vertical profiles are also shown. A method for conditioning the vertical profiles for improving demand prediction accuracy is described. Graphs of actual sector counts obtained using these vertical profiles are compared with those obtained using the Host data for sectors in the Fort Worth Center to demonstrate the benefit of preprocessing. Finally, results are presented to quantify the extent of data drops. A method for propagating track positions during ETMS data drops is also described.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

Functional Analysis for an Integrated Capability of Arrival/Departure/Surface Management with Tactical Runway Management

The runway is a critical resource of any air transport system. It is used for arrivals, departures, and for taxiing aircraft and is universally acknowledged as a constraining factor to capacity for both surface and airspace operations. It follows that investigation of the effective use of runways, both in terms of selection and assignment as well as the timing and sequencing of the traffic is paramount to the efficient traffic flows. Both the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and NASA have developed concepts and tools to improve atomic aspects of coordinated arrival/departure/surface management operations and runway configuration management. In December 2012, NASA entered into a Collaborative Agreement with DLR. Four collaborative work areas were identified, one of which is called "Runway Management." As part of collaborative research in the "Runway Management" area, which is conducted with the DLR Institute of Flight Guidance, located in Braunschweig, the goal is to develop an integrated system comprised of the three DLR tools - arrival, departure, and surface management (collectively referred to as A/D/S-MAN) - and NASA's tactical runway configuration management (TRCM) tool. To achieve this goal, it is critical to prepare a concept of operations (ConOps) detailing how the NASA runway management and DLR arrival, departure, and surface management tools will function together to the benefit of each. To assist with the preparation of the ConOps, the integrated NASA and DLR tools are assessed through a functional analysis method described in this report. The report first provides the highlevel operational environments for air traffic management (ATM) in Germany and in the U.S., and the descriptions of the DLR's A/D/S-MAN and NASA's TRCM tools at the level of details necessary to compliment the purpose of the study. Functional analyses of each tool and a completed functional analysis of an integrated system design are presented next in the report. Future efforts to fully develop the ConOps will include: developing scenarios to fully test environmental, procedural, and data availability assumptions; executing the analysis by a walk-through of the integrated system using these scenarios; defining the appropriate role of operators in terms of their monitoring requirements and decision authority; executing the analysis by a walk-through of the integrated system with operator involvement; characterizing the environmental, system data requirements, and operator role assumptions for the ConOps.

Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa↗

The decision tree classifier - Design and potential

A new classifier has been developed for the computerized analysis of remote sensor data. The decision tree classifier is essentially a maximum likelihood classifier using multistage decision logic. It is characterized by the fact that an unknown sample can be classified into a class using one or several decision functions in a successive manner. The classifier is applied to the analysis of data sensed by Landsat-1 over Kenosha Pass, Colorado. The classifier is illustrated by a tree diagram which for processing purposes is encoded as a string of symbols such that there is a unique one-to-one relationship between string and decision tree.

Hauska, H.↗

Progress in Spacecraft Environment Interactions: International Space Station (ISS) Development and Operations

The set of spacecraft interactions with the space flight environment that have produced the largest impacts on the design, verification, and operation of the International Space Station (ISS) Program during the May 2000 to May 2007 time frame are the focus of this paper. In-flight data, flight crew observations, and the results of ground-based test and analysis directly supporting programmatic and operational decision-making are reported as are the analysis and simulation efforts that have led to new knowledge and capabilities supporting current and future space explorations programs. The specific spacecraft-environment interactions that have had the greatest impact on ISS Program activities during the first several years of flight are: 1) spacecraft charging, 2) micrometeoroids and orbital debris effects, 3) ionizing radiation (both total dose to materials and single event effects [SEE] on avionics), 4) hypergolic rocket engine plume impingement effects, 5) venting/dumping of liquids, 6) spacecraft contamination effects, 7) neutral atmosphere and atomic oxygen effects, 8) satellite drag effects, and 9) solar ultraviolet effects. Orbital inclination (51.6deg) and altitude (nominally between 350 km and 460 km) determine the set of natural environment factors affecting the performance and reliability of materials and systems on ISS. ISS operates in the F2 region of Earth s ionosphere in well-defined fluxes of atomic oxygen, other ionospheric plasma species, solar UV, VUV, and x-ray radiation as well as galactic cosmic rays, trapped radiation, and solar cosmic rays. The micrometeoroid and orbital debris environment is an important determinant of spacecraft design and operations in any orbital inclination. The induced environment results from ISS interactions with the natural environment as well as environmental factors produced by ISS itself and visiting vehicles. Examples include ram-wake effects, hypergolic thruster plume impingement, materials out-gassing, venting and dumping of fluids, and specific photovoltaic (PV) power system interactions with the ionospheric plasma. Vehicle size (L) and velocity (v), combined with the magnitude and direction of the geomagnetic field (B) produce operationally significant magnetic induction voltages (VxB.L) in ISS conducting structure during high latitude flight (>+/- 45deg) during each orbit. In addition, ISS is a large vehicle and produces a deep wake structure from which both ionospheric plasma and neutrals species are largely excluded. ISS must fly in a very limited number of approved flight attitudes, so that exposure of a particular material or system to environmental factors depends upon: 1) location on ISS, 2) ISS flight configuration, 3) ISS flight attitude, and 4) variation of solar exposure (Beta angle), and hence thermal environment, with time. Finally, an induced ionizing radiation environment is produced by trapped radiation and solar/cosmic ray interactions with the relatively massive ISS structural shielding.

Koontz, Steve↗

Arctic Collaborative Environment: A New Multi-National Partnership for Arctic Science and Decision Support

The Arctic Collaborative Environment (ACE) project is a new international partnership for information sharing to meet the challenges of addressing Arctic. The goal of ACE is to create an open source, web-based, multi-national monitoring, analysis, and visualization decision-support system for Arctic environmental assessment, management, and sustainability. This paper will describe the concept, system architecture, and data products that are being developed and disseminated among partners and independent users through remote access.

Laymon, Charles A,↗

An investigation into pilot and system response to critical in-flight events. Volume 1: Executive summary

Critical in-flight events (CIFE) that threaten the aircraft were studied. The scope of the CIFE was described and defined with emphasis on characterizing event development, detection and assessment; pilot information requirements, sources, acquisition, and interpretation, pilot response options, decision processed, and decision implementation and event outcome. Detailed scenarios were developed for use in simulators and paper and pencil testing for developing relationships between pilot performance and background information as well as for an analysis of pilot reaction decision and feedback processes. Statistical relationships among pilot characteristics and observed responses to CIFE's were developed.

Rockwell, T. H.↗

NASA's Understanding of Risk in Apollo and Shuttle

Mathematical risk analysis was used in Apollo, but it gave unacceptably pessimistic resultsand was discontinued. Shuttle was designed without using risk analysis, under the assumptionthat good engineering would make it very safe. This approach led to an unnecessarily riskydesign, which directly led to the Shuttle tragedies. Although the Challenger disaster wasdirectly due to a mistaken launch decision, it might have been avoided by a safer design. Theultimate cause of the Shuttle tragedies was the Apollo era decision to abandon risk analysis.

Jones, Harry W.↗

Optimizing Air Transportation Service to Metroplex Airports: Analysis Using the Airline Schedule Optimization Model (ASOM) - Par 2

The air transportation system is a significant driver of the U.S. economy, providing safe, affordable, and rapid transportation. During the past three decades airspace and airport capacity has not grown in step with demand for air transportation; the failure to increase capacity at the same rate as the growth in demand results in unreliable service and systemic delay. This report describes the results of an analysis of airline strategic decision-making that affects geographic access, economic access, and airline finances, extending the analysis of these factors using historic data (from Part 1 of the report). The Airline Schedule Optimization Model (ASOM) was used to evaluate how exogenous factors (passenger demand, airline operating costs, and airport capacity limits) affect geographic access (markets-served, scheduled flights, aircraft size), economic access (airfares), airline finances (profit), and air transportation efficiency (aircraft size). This analysis captures the impact of the implementation of airport capacity limits, as well as the effect of increased hedged fuel prices, which serve as a proxy for increased costs per flight that might occur if auctions or congestion pricing are imposed; also incorporated are demand elasticity curves based on historical data that provide information about how passenger demand is affected by airfare changes.

Donoue, George↗

Science Autonomy for Ocean Worlds Astrobiology: A Perspective

Astrobiology missions to ocean worlds in our solar system must overcome both scientific and technological challenges due to extreme temperature and radiation conditions, long communication times, and limited bandwidth. While such tools could not replace ground-based analysis by science and engineering teams, machine learning algorithms could enhance the science return of these missions through development of autonomous science capabilities. Examples of science autonomy include onboard data analysis and subsequent instrument optimization, data prioritization (for transmission), and real-time decision-making based on data analysis. Similar advances could be made to develop streamlined data processing software for rapid ground-based analyses. Here we discuss several ways machine learning and autonomy could be used for astrobiology missions, including landing site selection, prioritization and targeting of samples, classification of “features” (e.g., proposed biosignatures) and novelties (uncharacterized, “new” features, which may be of most interest to agnostic astrobiological investigations), and data transmission.

ocean worlds↗