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DOE OSTI2022

Determining spatially varying profit‐maximizing management practices for miscanthus and switchgrass production in the rainfed United States

Abstract Determining optimal management practices for the profitable production of perennial energy crops is critical for scaling up production beyond experimental levels. Although many experimental field studies have examined the effects of management practices on the performance of miscanthus and switchgrass, there are no recommendations for economically optimal nitrogen (N) application rates and how they should vary spatially and with the age of the energy crop as well as on optimal rotation age of the energy crop to maximize profits. We develop a modeling framework to determine economically optimal crop management decisions and simulate the variability under various scenarios for miscanthus and switchgrass production across 2287 counties in the rainfed United States. We find that profit‐maximizing N recommendations for these crops vary across maturity stages and regions and can increase the landowner's profits compared with a uniform N rate across ages and regions. We also find that the optimal rotation for these crops is shorter than the productive physical lifespan (15–20 and 10 years for miscanthus and switchgrass, respectively). Specifically, the N rate that maximizes the economic returns is negligible for miscanthus and 111 kg ha −1 for switchgrass production at age 2. The mean profit‐maximizing N rate increases with age for miscanthus, peaking at 151 kg ha −1 at age 11 before declining to 114 kg ha −1 at the optimal rotation age of 13 years while that for switchgrass is 150 kg ha −1 for middle‐aged stands and declines to 114 kg ha −1 at the optimal rotation of 8–9 years. We find that miscanthus is the most profitable energy crop in the northern region of the rainfed United States while switchgrass is most profitable in the south of the rainfed United States. Our findings are useful for improving assessments of the profitability of energy crops and guiding future management decisions by landowners.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Operation of Solid-Oxide Electrolysis Cell Systems Considering Synergistic Chemical and Physical Degradation

This poster summarizes work on synergistic degradation of Solid-Oxide Cells under physical and chemical degradation. We present operational insights that extend the useful life of SOCs while maintaining high efficiencies and economic viability. We also provide insights on how often the SOC must be replaced to ensure the reliability of the process. All these decisions are made through a dynamic optimization framework that utilizes new models for degradation that were developed as a part of the IDAES project.

Giridhar, Nishant↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrating the Mobility Energy Productivity Metric Into the Delaware Department of Transportation Statewide Model

The Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric quantifies the quality of mobility at a given location and evaluates how changes in the transportation system impact mobility over time, such as through infrastructure investments. This study demonstrates the integration of the MEP metric into the Delaware Department of Transportation's (DelDOT's) transportation planning process by utilizing data from its statewide travel demand model. Specifically, the study assesses MEP for the 2020 baseline conditions and three alternative scenarios - 2030, Churchman, and Old Orchard - across multiple travel modes, including driving, walking, biking, and transit. The findings highlight that mobility and accessibility in Delaware are primarily supported by the driving mode, while transit services remain relatively limited, often ranking below biking and walking in many areas. In the 2030 scenario, where network operations and opportunities expand as projected, overall statewide accessibility declines, although Kent and Sussex counties experience improvements. The results from the Churchman and Old Orchard scenarios indicate that local network enhancements can positively influence accessibility, though primarily at a localized level, demonstrating MEP's capability to capture regional accessibility changes. Further, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory team successfully transferred MEP operational knowledge to the DelDOT team through dockerization, enabling DelDOT to independently run MEP for various scenarios of interest. Integrating MEP into DelDOT's planning framework supports future project evaluations and decision-making by incorporating access to opportunities as a key dimension of transportation system assessment.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2026

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Framework to Assess Advanced Reactor Spent Fuel Management Facility Deployment

Previous planning and prioritization for LWR SNF management investigated the risks and uncertainties of deploying facilities such as consolidated interim storage [1, 2, 3, 4]. As part of that work, activities and milestones were collected into success precedence diagrams that charted a path to achieving facility deployment [1]. In that framework, activities are any research, development, design, or decision required to achieve an intermediate goal; milestones are activity endpoints and mark the completion of deliverables. Milestones can be thought of as achievements required to reach the final goal of facility deployment; activities are the means by which milestones are accomplished. In planning, activities and milestones are compiled into comprehensive flow charts that visualize the steps necessary for deployment. This framework has been used to quantify risks, timelines, and costs of deploying SNF management facilities.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Game Theory Approaches for System-level Incentive Design

This report presents a generalized Stackelberg game framework for designing and evaluating financial incentives that enhance power system resilience through strategic deployment of distributed energy resources(DERs) under various contingencies. The proposed approach addresses the challenge of coordinating individual community investment decisions to meet system-wide resilience objectives. The framework is demonstrated in a three-community test system subjected to two transmission contingency scenarios: inter-community line failure (Case 1) and complete main grid disconnection (Case 2). In both cases, three incentive levels are compared: a Base case with no financial incentives, and low and high incentive cases. In Case 1, the Base case (no incentives) results in a total installed DER capacity of 217.2 MW, with no load shedding due to alternative routing, but community costs remain high. Increasing incentives raises DER deployment to 286.9 MW, lowers aggregate community costs by $22M annually, and completely avoids the need for costly new transmission line construction. In Case 2, the Base case results in 24.3 MWh of unserved load; introducing incentives eliminates all load shedding and ensures up to 89 MWh of battery storage is available for emergency reserve. These results demonstrate that targeted incentives can dramatically improve grid resilience and cost-effectiveness. The framework thus offers policymakers and system planners a robust tool to quantify and compare the effectiveness of incentive programs for multi-community transmission networks behavior, system resilience, and economic efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Breaking Down the Computational Barriers to Real-Time Urban Flood Forecasting

Flooding impacts are on the rise globally, and concentrated in urban areas. Currently, there are no operational systems to forecast flooding at spatial resolutions that can facilitate emergency preparedness and response actions mitigating flood impacts. We present a framework for real-time flood modeling and uncertainty quantification that combines the physics of fluid motion with advances in probabilistic methods. The framework overcomes the prohibitive computational demands of high-fidelity modeling in real-time by using a probabilistic learning method relying on surrogate models that are trained prior to a flood event. This shifts the overwhelming burden of computation to the trivial problem of data storage, and enables forecasting of both flood hazard and its uncertainty at scales that are vital for time-critical decision-making before and during extreme events. The framework has the potential to improve flood prediction and analysis and can be extended to other hazard assessments requiring intense high-fidelity computations in real-time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Proposed Risk-Informed Regulatory Framework for Approval of Microreactor Transportation Packages

Microreactors are very small nuclear reactors with a power output of about 20 megawatts electric or less that are designed to be factory-built, modular in nature, and highly portable. These compact reactors will be small enough to be transported by truck or even air and could help solve energy challenges in a number of areas, ranging from remote commercial or residential locations to military bases. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is tasked to develop and evaluate transportation licensing options for microreactors. The work is funded by the National Reactor Innovation Center a National Department of Energy program led by Idaho National Laboratory for the Office of Nuclear Energy Research and Development which support demonstration of microreactor technology. Key transportation steps include the (1) initial movement of high-assay low enriched uranium fresh fuel, (2) transportation of an intact, but never-operated microreactor, and (3) transportation of an intact, previously-operated microreactor. The deliverables on the project consists of a documentation of applicable regulations and regulatory authority for transportation. The objective of this report is to propose a risk-informed regulatory framework for the licensing of the transportation of microreactors, including the transportation of irradiated nuclear fuel that is assumed to be an integral component of the microreactor transportation package. The framework lays out a viable regulatory pathway, including decision points for regulatory options and the supporting technical evaluations for those options in phases from near to long term. This report includes discussion of the (1) general microreactor design concepts including representative microreactor source terms, (2) options for regulatory approval of microreactor transportation based on current regulation and historical precedence, (3) regulatory basis for including risk information in microreactor transportation licensing activities, and (4) description of a risk-informed regulatory framework.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Proposed Risk-Informed Regulatory Framework for Approval of Microreactor Transportation Packages

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Benchmarking Framework for Evaluating Large Language Model Capabilities in Nuclear Reactor Safety Applications

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly capable of answering technical questions, synthesizing domain knowledge, and supporting engineering workflows. For nuclear science and engineering, these capabilities require careful, domain-specific evaluation before they can be credibly incorporated into safety-related activities, regulatory review, or technical decision support. This paper presents preliminary results from benchmarking framework for evaluating LLM capabilities in nuclear contexts. The framework is organized into three evaluation categories: nuclear fundamentals, general dual-use knowledge, and plant specific knowledge. These categories are intended to distinguish general nuclear engineering competence from broader technical reasoning and more context-dependent nuclear knowledge. Initial evaluations focus on nuclear fundamentals using questions representative of the knowledge expected of a nuclear professional engineer. Results indicate that contemporary frontier models perform at a high level and substantially exceed the performance of older model generations, with some models approaching saturation of the current benchmark. These findings suggest both the rapid improvement of LLM capabilities in specialized technical domains and the need for more discriminating evaluation methods. The paper presents the benchmark structure, preliminary model-comparison results, and ongoing work. This work supports development of verifiable, responsible, and safety-conscious methods for assessing AI systems in nuclear engineering applications.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Decentralised Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Cyberattack Response in Microgrid Networks

Microgrids rely on communication networks for reliable operation, which makes them inherently vulnerable to cyberattacks. Such attacks can destabilise system dynamics and drive states away from their nominal operating trajectories. Although several physics-informed and machine learning-based strategies have been developed to counter these threats, the rapidly evolving cyber landscape enables adversaries to bypass static defences or rules-based mitigation approaches. This paper proposes a dynamic, online-trained and fully decentralised reinforcement learning (RL)-based cyberattack response framework to protect microgrids from evolving cyberattacks. The proposed framework deploys multiple deep Q-networks (DQNs), each associated with a distributed energy resource (DER), to enable localised and adaptive attack mitigation. In this framework, each DQN processes local voltage and frequency measurements—combined with intrusion detection system (IDS) alerts—as observations and rewards to guide decision-making. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the robustness of the proposed framework under diverse attack scenarios and varying IDS-induced detection delays. Comparative analysis highlights its superiority over existing static or preexisting rules-based mitigation approaches. Finally, we present an analysis that shows the framework's scalability to real-life microgrids with more interacting agents.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

A novel machine learning based identification of potential adopter of rooftop solar photovoltaics

With the proliferation of rooftop solar photovoltaic installations, there is a need to proactively predict consumer potential for solar photovoltaic adoption, for improved electric utility planning and operation. Traditional analytical modeling approaches are limited to a few survey features and a larger part of the survey would remain untouched by the decision model. This article presents a novel, data-driven modeling approach that strategically prunes a large set of consumer profile features using a machine learning framework to train a model for predicting potential solar adoption. The approach utilizes the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree model through a Light Gradient Boosting framework that improves significantly over the poor prediction accuracy of the existing approaches. Model training using focal-loss based supervision is used to overcome the difficulty in identifying the potential adopters that is inherent in conventional data-driven models. In addition, to overcome possible data sparsity in a limited survey sample, a Generative Adversarial Network is presented to create synthetic user samples and its effectiveness on model performance is assessed. A Bayesian optimization approach is used to systematically arrive at the hyperparameters of the proposed model. Validation of the presented approach on a survey data collected by the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association in Virginia in 2018 demonstrates the excellent predictive capability of the machine learning based approach to modeling solar adoption reliably.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic, risk informed decision support systems and methods

The present disclosure is directed to a decision support system or tool based on a Bayesian Network (BN) framework. The diagnostic support tool is created by using advanced Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) method(s) to construct Bayesian Networks (BNs) that form a Bayesian Decision Support Process (BDSP) to provide science-based decision support for understanding and managing events in complex systems. In an embodiment, the PRA method(s) may include Discrete Dynamic Event Trees (DDETs) and simulations.

Groth, Katrina↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian State-Space Modeling Framework for Understanding and Predicting Golden Eagle Movements Using Telemetry Data

Predicting raptor movements through a wind power plant under given atmospheric and topographical conditions is a crucial first step in the overall goal of quantifying the risk of turbine-related collisions and mortalities. Extracting behavioral traits of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) from telemetry data requires the fusion of noisy and sparse movement data (location, heading, velocity) with a stochastic mathematical representation of the eagles' decision-making processes. In this study, we framed this problem in a Bayesian state-space framework where both observations and decision-making are assumed to be stochastic processes connected through hidden states (mode of flight, intent), and the unknown model parameters are assumed to be random variables that are calibrated using the available telemetry data. This framework allowed for rigorous consideration of underlying uncertainties while allowing for both data and prior biological knowledge to contribute to a probabilistic and predictive agent-based movement model. We implemented and applied the Bayesian framework to understand movement behavior of 23 GPS-tagged golden eagles travelling in the western US for years 2019 and 2020. Our preliminary findings show that the Bayesian state-space framework provides a robust inverse modeling apparatus to decode eagle behavioral characteristics from telemetry data. This study was primarily aimed at verifying and validating the framework with selected golden eagle tracks (both long- and short-ranged), with future research aimed at extending the framework to include multi-mode flight, consideration of atmospheric data and uplift mechanisms, eagle-to-eagle interaction, and eagle-to-turbine interaction.

Bayesian modeling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy storage planning for enhanced resilience of power systems against wildfires and heatwaves

Extreme weather events pose significant risks to power grid stability due to their severe consequences and potential for widespread failures. Energy storage systems hold great potential for enhancing grid resilience against such events by providing reliable power during peak demand periods. However, accurately quantifying the size, location, and investment costs of new energy storage assets is a complex task, as energy storage planning decisions depend on the investment choices of other generation technologies and the integration of new transmission projects. Here, this paper presents a novel capacity expansion planning framework that simultaneously optimizes investments in energy storage, generation, and transmission, determining their optimal size, location, and type, while incorporating extreme weather events into long-term planning. More specifically, our stress-event-informed planning framework integrates the impact of heatwaves and wildfires into the planning process, identifying least-cost investment solutions that comply with policy goals and enhance grid resilience. The proposed framework employs machine-learning-based modeling to project heatwave-induced loads and performance-based risk assessment to evaluate wildfire-driven transmission line derates. Using industry-standard datasets to accurately represent the transmission topology of the Western Interconnection (WI) system, the proposed framework is applied to the WI 40-zone system, with investment decisions reported for the years 2030, 2035, and 2040. Simulation results reveal that with just a 10% increase in investment costs, resilience against extreme events can be significantly improved, with investment decisions heavily favoring energy storage, particularly 4-hour energy storage systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Co-design optimization of combined heat and power-based microgrids

With the emergent need for clean and reliable energy resources, hybrid energy systems, such as the microgrid, are widely adopted in the United States. A microgrid can consist of various distributed energy resources, for instance, combined heat and power (CHP) systems. Here, the CHP module is a distributed cogeneration technology that produces electricity and recaptures heat generated as a by-product. It is an energy-efficient technology converting heat that would otherwise be wasted to valuable thermal energy. For an optimal system configuration, this study develops a novel co-design optimization framework for CHP-based cogeneration microgrids. The framework provides the stakeholder with a method to optimize investments and attain resilient operations. The proposed co-design framework has a mixed integer programming (MIP) model that outputs decisions for both plant designs and operating controls. The microgrid considered in this study contains six components: the CHP, boiler, heat recovery unit, thermal storage system, power storage system, and photovoltaic plant. After solving the MIP model, the optimal design parameters of each component can be found to minimize the total installation cost of all components in the microgrid. Furthermore, the online costs from energy production, operation, maintenance, machine startup, and disruption-induced unsatisfied loads are minimized by solving the optimal control decisions for operations. Case studies based on designing a CHP-based microgrid with empirical data are conducted. Moreover, we consider both nominal and disruptive operational scenarios to validate the performance of the proposed co-design framework in terms of a cost-effective, resilient system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Psychosocial drivers of land management behaviour: How threats, norms, and context influence deforestation intentions

Understanding how private landholders make deforestation decisions is of paramount importance for conservation. Behavioural frameworks from the social sciences have a lot to offer researchers and practitioners, yet these insights remain underutilised in describing what drives landholders' deforestation intentions under important political, social, and management contexts. Using survey data of private landholders in Queensland, Australia, we compare the ability of two popular behavioural models to predict future deforestation intentions, and propose a more integrated behavioural model of deforestation intentions. We found that the integrated model outperformed other models, revealing the importance of threat perceptions, attitudes, and social norms for predicting landholders' deforestation intentions. Social capital, policy uncertainty, and years of experience are important contextual moderators of these psychological factors. Here, we conclude with recommendations for promoting behaviour change in this deforestation hotspot and highlight how others can adopt similar approaches to illuminate more proximate drivers of environmental behaviours in other contexts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Demand response event simulator and risk-aware bidding tool for industrial customers

Incentive Based Demand Response (IBDR) program participation delivers financial benefits to the consumers and resiliency benefits to the electricity grid. Effectively participating in these programs as an industrial consumer requires bidding strategies that balance financial risk with operational constraints. Existing bidding tools tend not to fully incorporate stochastic IBDR event modeling, program specific baseline and payment/penalty calculations, or demand reduction process control schemes that account for the cascading impacts of shutdown in complex facilities. Here, this work presents an IBDR event simulator and risk-aware bidding framework tool integrating three key components: a flexible, parameterized demand response event generator that rigorously accounts for program structures and stochasticity, a demand response operational simulation model that generates explicit control strategies for load reduction, and a Monte Carlo simulator to evaluate financial risk for varied capacity bids. A case study at a wastewater treatment plant participating in PG&E's Capacity Bidding Program demonstrates the framework's utility. In the peak capacity price month of August, optimal bidding by the wastewater treatment plant nets a mean IBDR benefit of $101,000 (67% of the August electricity bill) with 0.4% probability of a financial loss. This framework enables industrial operators to make informed bidding decisions, negotiate better program terms with demand response load aggregators, and analyze energy flexibility investments at their facilities. Ultimately, this work reduces participation barriers in IBDR programs and supports the broader goal of enhancing grid reliability and renewable energy integration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗