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At least 199 records · Page 11

Range Systems Simulation for the NASA Shuttle: Emphasis on Disaster and Prevention Management During Lift-Off

This article describes a decision-making system composed of a number of safety and environmental models for the launch phase of a NASA Space Shuttle mission. The components of this distributed simulation environment represent the different systems that must collaborate to establish the Expectation of Casualties (E(sub c)) caused by a failed Space Shuttle launch and subsequent explosion (accidental or instructed) of the spacecraft shortly after liftoff. This decision-making tool employs Space Shuttle reliability models, trajectory models, a blast model, weather dissemination systems, population models, amount and type of toxicants, gas dispersion models, human response functions to toxicants, and a geographical information system. Since one of the important features of this proposed simulation environment is to measure blast, toxic, and debris effects, the clear benefits is that it can help safety managers not only estimate the population at risk, but also to help plan evacuations, make sheltering decisions, establish the resources required to provide aid and comfort, and mitigate damages in case of a disaster.

Rabelo, Lisa↗

Future Surface Decision Support Overview

This presentation presents the capabilities of the Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) system as a surface decision support tool for users, including Air Traffic Control (ATC) personnel working at the tower and Center facilities and airline Ramp personnel. The ATD-2 IADS capabilities include data exchange and integration, modeling and scheduling, surface metering, and departure scheduling for overhead stream insertion of constrained flights.

Surface Decision Support↗

Evaluation of a Potential for Enhancing the Decision Support System of the Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center with NASA Earth Science Research Results

NASA's objective for the Applied Sciences Program of the Science Mission Directorate is to expand and accelerate the realization of economic and societal benefits from Earth science, information, and technology. This objective is accomplished by using a systems approach to facilitate the incorporation of Earth observations and predictions into the decision-support tools used by partner organizations to provide essential services to society. The services include management of forest fires, coastal zones, agriculture, weather prediction, hazard mitigation, aviation safety, and homeland security. In this way, NASA's long-term research programs yield near-term, practical benefits to society. The Applied Sciences Program relies heavily on forging partnerships with other Federal agencies to accomplish its objectives. NASA chooses to partner with agencies that have existing connections with end-users, information infrastructure already in place, and decision support systems that can be enhanced by the Earth science information that NASA is uniquely poised to provide (NASA, 2004).

Blonski, Slawomir↗

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Integration of OMI and TES Aerosol Products into the EPA Regional Planning Organizations' FASTNET Aerosol Tracking and Analysis Tool

Every year, more than 280 million visitors tour our Nation s most treasured parks and wilderness areas. Unfortunately, many visitors are unable to see the spectacular vistas they expect because of white or brown haze in the air. Most of this haze is not natural; it is air pollution, carried by the wind often hundreds of miles from its origin. Some of the pollutants have been linked to serious health problems, such as asthma and other lung disorders, and even premature death. In addition, nitrates and sulfates contribute to acid rain formation, which contaminates rivers and lakes and erodes buildings and historical monuments. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency RPOs (Regional Planning Organizations) have been tasked with monitoring and determining the nature and origin of haze in Class I scenic areas, and finding ways to reduce haze in order to improve visibility in these areas. The RPOs have developed an Internet-based air quality DST (Decision Support Tool) called FASTNET (Fast Aerosol Sensing Tools for Natural Event Tracking). While FASTNET incorporates a few satellite datasets, most of the data utilized by this DST comes from ground-based instrument networks. The problem is that in many areas the sensors are sparsely located, with long distances between them, causing difficulties in tracking haze over the United States, determining its source, and analyzing its content. Satellite data could help to fill in the data gaps and to supplement and verify ground-recorded air quality data. Although satellite data are now being used for air quality research applications, such data are not routinely used for environmental decision support, in part because of limited resources, difficulties with interdisciplinary data interpretation, and the need for advanced inter-agency partnerships. As a result, the validation and verification of satellite data for air quality operational system applications has been limited This candidate solution evaluates the usefulness of OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) and TES (Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer) air quality data for the RPOs by comparing OMI and TES data with ground-based data that are acquired during identified episodes of air pollution. The air quality data from OMI and TES are of different spectral ranges than data from satellites currently included in FASTNET, giving them potential advantages over the existing satellites. If the OMI and TES data are shown to be useful to the RPOs, they would then be integrated into the FASTNET DST for use on an operational basis.

Knowlton, Kelly↗

Openet: Applications of Satellite-Based Evapotranspiration Data for Water Resources Management in the Western United States

Advancing water security in overallocated river basins globally requires consistent and reproducible information on consumptive use of water that can anchor the development of data-driven solutions to the challenge of balancing water supply and demand. OpenET is a fully automated system for field-scale (30 m), satellite-based mapping of evapotranspiration (ET) at daily, monthly and annual timesteps. OpenET currently provides spatially contiguous data throughout the 23 westernmost states in the continental US, and includes both current information as well as multi-year timeseries of ET. The OpenET consortium has implemented an ensemble of satellite-based ET models (ALEXI/DisALEXI, eeMETRIC, PT-JPL, geeSEBAL, SIMS and SSEBop) on Google Earth Engine, which provides a shared computing platform for collaboration on processing of data from Landsat and other satellites, land cover and meteorological inputs, leading to increased consistency and accuracy across the ensemble of models. Earth Engine also facilitates hosting and distribution of data via open data collections and an application programming interface. We provide updates on the OpenET framework, open data services and data access tools, approach to geographic expansion, recent accuracy assessments, and describe how a user-driven design approach has facilitated successful applications of OpenET data for a wide range of water resource management activities. Applications to date include: use of ET data to improve quantification of ET and consumptive use in Oregon, Utah and the Upper Colorado River Basin; streamlining of water use reporting requirements in the California Delta; support for calculation of water budgets for the implementation of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act in California; and integration into decision support tools for irrigation management. The use cases demonstrate how satellite-derived ET data that are easily accessed and seen as broadly accepted can accelerate adoption of innovative water management practices at scale, and support advances in the sustainability of water supplies. Uptake and use of data by the OpenET science community has also led to advances in our understanding of the impacts of landcover change, irrigation intensification and wildfire events on hydrology and the water security.

Applications↗

SILHIL Replication of Electric Aircraft Powertrain Dynamics and Inner-Loop Control for V&V of System Health Management Routines

Software-in-the-loop and Hardware-in-the-loop testing of failure prognostics and decision making tools for aircraft systems will facilitate more comprehensive and cost-effective testing than what is practical to conduct with flight tests. A framework is described for the offline recreation of dynamic loads on simulated or physical aircraft powertrain components based on a real-time simulation of airframe dynamics running on a flight simulator, an inner-loop flight control policy executed by either an autopilot routine or a human pilot, and a supervisory fault management control policy. The creation of an offline framework for verifying and validating supervisory failure prognostics and decision making routines is described for the example of battery charge depletion failure scenarios onboard a prototype electric unmanned aerial vehicle.

Verification and Validation↗

Applications of Satellite Data to Support Improvements in Irrigation and Groundwater Management in California

In agricultural regions around the world, threats to water supplies from drought and groundwater depletion are driving increased demand for tools to advance agricultural water use efficiency and support sustainable groundwater management. Satellite mapping of evapotranspiration (ET) from irrigated agricultural lands can provide agricultural producers and water resource managers with information that can be used to both optimize ag water use and improve estimates of groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. We describe the development of two remote sensing-based tools for ET mapping in California, including important lessons in terms of system design, partnership development, and transition to operations. For irrigation management, the integration of satellite data and surface sensor networks to provide timely delivery of information on crop water requirements can make irrigation scheduling more practical, convenient, and accurate.Developed through a partnership between NASA and the CA Department of Water Resources, the Satellite Irrigation Management Support (SIMS) framework integrates satellite data with information from agricultural weather networks to map crop canopy development and crop water requirements at the scale of individual fields. Information is distributed to agricultural producers and water managers via a web-based interface and web data services. SIMS also provides an API that facilitates integration with other irrigation decision support tools, such as CropManage and IrriQuest. Field trials using these integrated tools have shown that they can be used to sustain yields while improving water use efficiency and nutrient management. For sustainable groundwater management, the combination of satellite-derived estimates of ET and data on surface water deliveries for irrigation can increase the accuracy of estimates of groundwater pumping. We are developing an OpenET platform to facilitate access to ET data from multiple models and accelerate operational use of ET data in support of a range of water management applications, including implementation of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act in CA. By providing a shared basis for decision making, we anticipate that the OpenET platform will accelerate implementation of solutions for sustainable groundwater management.

Satellite↗

Implementation Issues for Departure Planning Systems

The objective of the proposed effort is to investigate issues associated with the design and implementation of decision aiding tools to assist in improving the departure process at congested airports. This effort follows a preliminary investigation of potential Departure Planning approaches and strategies, which identified potential benefits in departure efficiency, and also in reducing the environmental impact of aircraft in the departure queue. The preliminary study bas based, in large part, on observations and analysis of departure processes at Boston, Logan airport. The objective of this follow-on effort is to address key implementation issues and to expand the observational base to include airports with different constraints and traffic demand. Specifically, the objectives of this research are to: (1) Expand the observational base to include airports with different underlying operational dynamics. (2) Develop prototype decision aiding algorithms/approaches and assess potential benefits. and (3) Investigate Human Machine Integration (HMI) issues associated with decision aids in tower environments.

Hansman, R. John↗

Improving the Transition of Earth Satellite Observations from Research to Operations

There are significant gaps between the observations, models, and decision support tools that make use of new data. These challenges include: 1) Decreasing the time to incorporate new satellite data into operational forecast assimilation systems, 2) Blending in-situ and satellite observing systems to produce the most accurate and comprehensive data products and assessments, 3) Accelerating the transition from research to applications through national test beds, field campaigns, and pilot demonstrations, and 4) Developing the partnerships and organizational structures to effectively transition new technology into operations. At the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center in Huntsville, Alabama, a NASA-NOAA-University collaboration has been developed to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth science observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. The SPoRT Center research focus is to improve forecasts through new observation capability and the regional prediction objectives of the US Weather Research Program dealing with 0-1 day forecast issues such as convective initiation and 24-hr quantitative precipitation forecasting. The near real-time availability of high-resolution experimental products of the atmosphere, land, and ocean from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Advanced Infrared Spectroradiometer (AIRS), and lightning mapping systems provide an opportunity for science and algorithm risk reduction, and for application assessment prior to planned observations from the next generation of operational low Earth orbiting and geostationary Earth orbiting satellites. This paper describes the process for the transition of experimental products into forecast operations, current products undergoing assessment by forecasters, and plans for the future. The SPoRT Web page is at (http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/sport).

Goodman, Steven J.↗

Bringing the Flight Surgeon Console Into the Artemis Era: Constructing A Quick Reference Guide for the Orion Vehicle

BACKGROUND: Historically, NASA flight surgeons working on control console have had access to a quick reference guide that provides tailored clinical information for a variety of medical conditions, symptoms, and events that crew members may experience on the International Space Station (ISS). With the development of the Orion vehicle and its new medical system intended for the Artemis missions, a new quick reference guide is required to reflect the capabilities of this new medical system. OVERVIEW: The Flight Surgeon Quick Reference Guide(FSQRG)offers a variety of information to flight surgeons. For each condition/symptom/event, the guide describes what actions and procedures crew members will perform either automatically or at the instruction of the flight surgeon. The guide describes what further information should be collected, lists potential diagnoses, and further actions available to be taken by the Flight Surgeon or crew. The guide also describes what medications are available to the crew, common clinical decision-making tools, and other terrestrial practices. Due to the significant differences between the ISS and the Orion vehicle in both structure and mission scope, Orion’s medical system is significantly smaller than the ISS’s. When constructing the new guide for the Orion vehicle we began with the ISS version of the guide as a template. We then replaced ISS crew procedure references with their Orion counterpart if one existed. We also added new Orion crew procedure references where clinically appropriate. Reductions or additions to the medical equipment/medication references were made until they were consistent with resources available on Orion. Finally, we constructed a resource matrix that allows flight surgeons to easily identify the location of medications and equipment required for crew procedures. DISCUSSION: The information provided in the updated FSQRG allows flight surgeons to make quick and clinically accurate decisions that can be accomplished within the scope of the Orion vehicle medical system. This timely and accurate decision making becomes more important as missions go beyond low earth orbit and communication becomes more delayed. Such quick reference guides also have the potential to reflect medical systems on future vehicles, missions, and partner vehicles.

Anderson carter↗

Custom Integration of Multiple Medical Functionalities

INTRODUCTION: Previous spaceflight experience and results from probabilistic risk assessment of spaceflight medical risk have highlighted the need for vital sign measurements, medical scopes, and clinical imaging tools for managing medical conditions during spaceflight. The Human Research Program’s Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element and the Mars Campaign Office’s Exploration Medical Integrated Product Team (XMIPT) have performed ground-based evaluations of two Commercial-off-the-Shelf (COTS) Multi-functional Integrated Medical (MIM) devices, which integrate various medical capabilities together in one device. The key findings from these evaluations are presented in a complementary presentation, leaving this presentation to focus on forward recommendations for customized integration of multiple medical functionalities. KEY COMPONENTS: The key features of a custom integration of multiple medical functionalities includes devices and capabilities that optimally reduce medical risk. The COTS MIM devices incorporated functionality for best supporting Earth-based, emergency, pre-hospital care. Our custom integration will use probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT), to determine the optimal functionality to include based on medical risk minimization. An additional feature of custom integration includes the ability to adapt to different requirements within different vehicles and/or missions. The COTS MIM devices store data in patient specific records, however, the format of the records is not modifiable, and data are not easily transferred from the MIM device to a central data architecture outside of the manufacturer’s established system. Our concept for custom integration will use devices that have an open application programming interface, which can easily connect to independent data architectures and third-party visualization software. The ultrasound capabilities included within the COTS MIM devices did not satisfy many of the Artemis Research and Operations Working Group’s ultrasound functional needs, and therefore, incorporation of higher quality ultrasound capabilities within a customized integration will be beneficial. The COTS MIM devices included minimal procedural guidance and clinical decision support tools. Supplemental tools of this type would need to be supplied along with the COTS MIM devices if they were to be used operationally, so another advantage of customization is the ability to integrate these support tools along with the medical functionality, for a more streamlined user experience. CONCLUSION: Investigation of a customized integration of medical functionality provides a method for further understanding the needs of a long-term exploration spaceflight medical system. The crew members of these exploration missions will need to operate more and more independently from Earth-based ground support. Therefore, having an optimized, streamlined medical system, which contains the functionality and supporting information needed, while remaining within mission and vehicle constraints, will help to maintain crew health and performance, which is necessary for achieving high levels of mission success.

B E Lewandowski↗

LIS-Hydro: Authoritative Source for OCONUS Hydro-Intelligence

U.S. military forces are often tasked to participate in a variety of transboundary water-related decision-making activities, including humanitarian assistance operations through Department of State tasking, support of in-country infrastructure development activities that help develop or improve diplomatic relationships, and support of transboundary water treaty negotiations or disputes to reduce risk of conflict caused by water security issues. The U.S. intelligence communities have identified the coordination over shared water resources as an area of significant concern to U.S. national security (U.S. National Defense Strategy, 2018). Such transboundary water issues are projected to intensify in the future under increasingly complex population dynamics, political tensions due to parallel issues, and a changing climate. A 2017 joint NASA, USACE/RDC, and U.S. Air Force co-sponsored workshop revealed a lack of sufficient decision support tools and access to timely technical and contextual information needed to assess and respond to potential water-related threats around the world. The need for an integrated operational service, with the capacity to combine and synthesize hydrological modeling, assimilation, forecasting, and visualization capabilities across the U.S. Government, was highlighted as a key recommendation. In direct response, a subset of the U.S. Department of Defense, National Intelligence Community, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory are collaborating on the development of a fully integrated hydro-modeling and streamflow prediction system (i.e., LIS-Hydro). Completion of the project and sustainment of the operational capability by Air Force Weather will establish a national asset to assist federal agencies implement government-wide strategies around water resources (U.S. Global Water Strategy, 2017). The hydrological products and services will, for the very first time, establish a routinely available authoritative source of global water intelligence information supporting war-fighters, planners, and decision makers at all echelons and services of the U.S. military, Federal government, and intelligence community. A summary of the interagency scientific collaboration in addressing some of the key gaps and needs identified during the 2017 workshop will be presented.

Land Information System↗

Creating Portfolio Management Concepts for Highly Agile and Innovative Government Research Programs Using Design Thinking and Lean Startup Methodologies

Managing a research and development (R&D) portfolio presents numerous challenges, such as prioritizing research areas, remaining agile, strategic workforce planning, and measuring return on investment, impact, and innovation. One government R&D program is charged with producing a high degree of innovative, transformational breakthroughs in aviation technology. A practical, structured methodology for strategically prioritizing emerging aviation R&D in such an environment is lacking. The existing multi-criteria decision aid tools are primarily utilized at an enterprise level, take months to set up and collect data, require large teams of experts, are used on an infrequent basis, and are not conducive to a highly innovative, high-risk portfolio. Prior to audaciously creating a new portfolio prioritization process, the exact challenges with portfolio management for R&D projects were identified using the design thinking and lean start-up methods. A key part of this discovery process was interviewing stakeholders, as well as other managers of organizations charged with producing innovative portfolios. These interviews, as well as additional techniques, were used to develop a deeper understanding of the challenges and, subsequently, lay the foundation for development of an effective portfolio prioritization process. Four potential concepts that represent key findings emerged: carefully selected criteria for portfolio assessment and selection, targeted portfolio turnover rate, dynamic portfolio prioritization framework, and streamlined transition or commercialization of R&D. Acting on any one of the resulting portfolio management concepts will increase the transparency and confidence in portfolio decisions and, ideally, result in a greater degree of transformational breakthroughs in aviation technology.

project portfolio management↗

Selection of Next Priority IMPACT Medical Conditions Based on Available Terrestrial and Spaceflight Data

BACKGROUND: As the era of exploration class missions begins, identification of medical conditions that may occur and require management becomes essential for the modeling of medical risk. To this end, NASA has developed IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces), a suite of tools to assist in assessment of medical risk analysis. It has incorporated an initial list of the 120 conditions of highest concern, labeled the IMPACT condition list 1.0 (ICL 1.0). This abstract describes a method for prioritizing the 92 conditions included on the Proposed Future Conditions List (PFCL) for inclusion in future iterations of the ICL. OVERVIEW: To construct the Prioritized Proposed Future Conditions List (P-PFCL), each condition on the PFCL was scored as “low,” “medium,” or “high” on each of four variables: incidence, likelihood of significant task impairment, diagnostic and treatment complexity, and treatment futility. Qualitative assessment using clinical judgement was utilized to score complexity, futility, and likelihood of impairment. Incidence was assessed quantitatively using spaceflight data and/or analog populations where available then assigned a score using established cutoffs. Logarithmic numerical values were assigned to each category label. A Prioritization Score was generated for each condition by taking the product of incidence and likelihood of task impairment (risk) divided by the product of complexity and futility (difficulty of care), with higher values corresponding to higher priority for future inclusion in the ICL. DISCUSSION: The described methods allow for the generation of a ranked P-PFCL to act as a decision support tool for selection of the next generation of modeled medical conditions. Some of the conditions ranked highly on the P-PFCL include EVA-related upper and lower extremity sprain/strain, iron deficiency, delirium, and hypertension, among others. While this effort does not attempt to quantify the absolute risk associated with each condition, it does attempt to semi-quantitatively estimate the risk of each condition relative to the other possible conditions. This tool in concert with subject matter expert opinion could optimize the future use of limited resources thereby producing a more accurate medical risk model, which will be essential to the upcoming exploration class missions.

Michael Pohlen↗

Sensor to User - NASA/EOS Data for Coastal Zone Management Applications Developed from Integrated Analyses: Verification, Validation and Benchmark Report

The NASA Applied Sciences Program seeks to transfer NASA data, models, and knowledge into the hands of end-users by forming links with partner agencies and associated decision support tools (DSTs). Through the NASA REASoN (Research, Education and Applications Solutions Network) Cooperative Agreement, the Oceanography Division of the Naval Research Laboratory (NRLSSC) is developing new products through the integration of data from NASA Earth-Sun System assets with coastal ocean forecast models and other available data to enhance coastal management in the Gulf of Mexico. The recipient federal agency for this research effort is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The contents of this report detail the effort to further the goals of the NASA Applied Sciences Program by demonstrating the use of NASA satellite products combined with data-assimilating ocean models to provide near real-time information to maritime users and coastal managers of the Gulf of Mexico. This effort provides new and improved capabilities for monitoring, assessing, and predicting the coastal environment. Coastal managers can exploit these capabilities through enhanced DSTs at federal, state and local agencies. The project addresses three major issues facing coastal managers: 1) Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs); 2) hypoxia; and 3) freshwater fluxes to the coastal ocean. A suite of ocean products capable of describing Ocean Weather is assembled on a daily basis as the foundation for this semi-operational multiyear effort. This continuous realtime capability brings decision makers a new ability to monitor both normal and anomalous coastal ocean conditions with a steady flow of satellite and ocean model conditions. Furthermore, as the baseline data sets are used more extensively and the customer list increased, customer feedback is obtained and additional customized products are developed and provided to decision makers. Continual customer feedback and response with new improved products are required between the researcher and customer. This document details the methods by which these coastal ocean products are produced including the data flow, distribution, and verification. Product applications and the degree to which these products are used successfully within NOAA and coordinated with the Mississippi Department of Marine Resources (MDMR) is benchmarked.

Hall, Callie↗

Objective Measurement Assessment of Departure Advisories for Ramp Controllers from a Human-In-The-Loop Simulation

NASA has developed and demonstrated an integrated arrival, departure, and surface concept and technology for efficient air traffic management in busy terminal environments under the Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) subproject. In April/May 2019, NASA conducted a human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulation with ramp and tower controllers having experience at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW). The purpose of this HITL was to evaluate the impacts of various surface metering goals in ramp operations at DFW and test new features of the ATD-2 ramp controller decision support tools. This paper evaluates the quantitative metrics from the simulation results related to airport performance and surface metering given various departure scheduling advisories for ramp controllers. The objective measurements compared include the controller’s compliance with the target times for pushback and spot arrival, the number of metered flights, aircraft gate hold and taxi time, runway throughput, and the number of aircraft on the surface. The simulation results show that there were no statistically significant benefits from surface metering at DFW for airport performance due to several simulation artifacts notably different from real operations. Considering controller workload and situation awareness, following either gate pushback or spot arrival advisory could be a better metering option than utilizing both advisories when surface metering is applied at DFW.

airport ramp traffic control decision support↗

Temporal logics meet telerobotics

The specificity of telerobotics being the presence of a human operator, decision assistance tools are necessary for the operator, especially in hostile environments. In order to reduce execution hazards due to a degraded ability for quick and efficient recovery of unexpected dangerous situations, it is of importance to have the opportunity, amongst others, to simulate the possible consequences of a plan before its actual execution, in order to detect these problematic situations. Hence the idea of providing the operator with a simulator enabling him to verify the temporal and logical coherence of his plans. Therefore, the power of logical formalisms is used for representation and deduction purposes. Starting from the class of situations that are represented, a STRIPS (the STanford Research Institute Problem Solver)-like formalism and its underlying logic are adapted to the simulation of plans of actions in time. The choice of a temporal logic enables to build a world representation, on which the effects of plans, grouping actions into control structures, will be transcribed by the simulation, resulting in a verdict and information about the plan's coherence.

Rutten, Eric↗

Progress in modeling atmospheric propagation of sonic booms

The improved simulation of sonic boom propagation through the real atmosphere requires greater understanding of how the transient acoustic pulses popularly termed sonic booms are affected by humidity and turbulence. A realistic atmosphere is invariably somewhat turbulent, and may be characterized by an ambient fluid velocity v and sound speed c that vary from point to point. The absolute humidity will also vary from point to point, although possibly not as irregularly. What is ideally desired is a relatively simple scheme for predicting the probable spreads in key sonic boom signature parameters. Such parameters could be peak amplitudes, rise times, or gross quantities obtainable by signal processing that correlate well with annoyance or damage potential. The practical desire for the prediction scheme is that it require a relatively small amount of knowledge, possibly of a statistical nature, concerning the atmosphere along, the propagation path from the aircraft to the ground. The impact of such a scheme, if developed, implemented, and verified, would be that it would give the persons who make planning decisions a tool for assessing the magnitude of environmental problems that might result from any given overflight or sequence of overflights. The technical approach that has been followed by the author and some of his colleagues is to formulate a hierarchy of simple approximate models based on fundamental physical principles and then to test these models against existing data. For propagation of sonic booms and of other types of acoustic pulses in nonturbulent model atmospheres, there exists a basic overall theoretical model that has evolved as an outgrowth of geometrical acoustics. This theoretical model depicts the sound as propagating within ray tubes in a manner analogous to sound in a waveguide of slowly varying cross-section. Propagation along the ray tube is quasi-one-dimensional, and a wave equation for unidirectional wave propagation is used. A nonlinear term is added to this equation to account for nonlinear steepening, and the formulation has been carried through to allow for spatially varying sound speed, ambient density, and ambient wind velocities. The model intrinsically neglects diffraction, so it cannot take into account what has previously been mentioned in the literature as possibly important mechanisms for turbulence-related distortion. The model as originally developed could predict an idealized N-waveform which often agrees with data in terms of peak amplitude and overall positive phase duration. It is possible, moreover, to develop simple methods based on the physics of relaxation processes for incorporating molecular relaxation into the quasi-one-dimensional model of nonlinear propagation along ray tubes.

Pierce, Allan D.↗