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DOE OSTI2021

A new procedure for implementing the modified inherent strain method with improved accuracy in predicting both residual stress and deformation for laser powder bed fusion

As a metal additive manufacturing (AM) process, laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) has been widely used to produce parts with complex geometries. The large thermal gradient caused by the fast, intense, and repeated laser scanning induces significant residual deformation and stress to the as-built parts, which increase manufacturing difficulty and geometrical inaccuracy as a result. The modified inherent strain (MIS) method exploiting multiscale process simulations was developed to simulate residual deformation accurately and efficiently. However, the existing procedure of implementing the MIS method is found to give inaccurate residual stress prediction. Here in this work, a new implementation procedure for the MIS method is proposed to improve the simulation accuracy of residual stress without degrading the residual deformation prediction. The new procedure concerns the application of inherent strains to the part-scale layer-by-layer finite element model to obtain residual stress and deformation field. While the existing implementation of the part-scale MIS model involves only mechanical properties at ambient temperature, the new procedure adds one more solution step employing mechanical properties at an elevated temperature determined from the inherent strain extraction step. Both numerical and experimental studies are conducted to validate the proposed new implementation procedure. It shows that by using the new procedure, the MIS-based simulation can predict both residual stress and deformation of as-built L-PBF metal parts with good accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostics Framework Development for Swarm Satellite Formations

Prognostics is the science of predicting the failure(s) of a component or a system and understanding how the performance will change in the event of a failure or degradation mechanism. With accurate predictions of possible failures, autonomous mitigative actions can be taken to correct/repair any issues or alert human operators of a failure threshold exceedance requiring condition-based maintenance. Although there is extensive research on failure predictions for a component or a system, there are significantly more opportunities to foray into failure predictions and prognostics for a system of systems such as an airspace consisting of multiple aircraft, a fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles, and a swarm of intelligent satellite systems. Failure prediction and mitigation are particularly important in autonomous systems such as satellite swarm systems that need effective resource management and minimal human interactions. Based on NASA's decadal survey, there is a clear need to prioritize the development of satellite swarm technology for studies of space physics and Earth science. The science community will propose future missions that return in-situ measurements from a 3-D (three-dimensional) volume of space, with relative spacecraft motion and inter-satellite baselines controlled according to the mission objectives. For such multi-spacecraft missions, it is required that ground operations resources do not scale with the number of satellites, thus compromising the swarm or leading to inefficiencies in resource allocation. Swarms of tens or hundreds of small satellites will require autonomy in attitude control, navigation and failure. Although significant research has been conducted in the areas of autonomous formation flying algorithms, less attention has been given to the development of resilient systems robust to failures.The focus of this research paper is the integration of model-based prognostics into the swarm dynamics control and decision-making algorithms. We simulate swarm management strategies for a subsystem failure to demonstrate the importance of failure predictions by comparing two cases: (i) no health information is provided to the system and utilized in the decision-making process and (2) system health information is obtained using prognostics and employed by the control system. One example scenario presented is for the GPS (Global Positioning System) system of an individual satellite to perform off-nominally due to increasing estimated error. In this scenario, the keep-out zone for that satellite would become more conservative, thereby decreasing the risk of collision. This is achieved via tuning the individual artificial repulsive functions assigned to each satellite.This paper is structured as follows. First we provide an overview of current swarm technology development, where we specifically use the term swarm to define multiple satellites flying in formation in similar orbits, with cross-link communication and station-keeping capabilities. Second, we give an introduction to the Swarm Orbital Dynamics Advisor (SODA), a tool that accepts high-level configuration commands and provides the orbital maneuvers required to achieve the prescribed formation configuration. Third, we provide the details of the model-based prognostics algorithm implementation in SODA. Finally, we present different case studies for potential component/subsystem failures and the swarm responses based with and without failure prediction information.

prognostics↗

DOE OSTI2025

PV Degradation Modeling: Applying Geospatial Workflows with "PVDeg"

Accurate degradation modeling is essential for predicting photovoltaic (PV) module performance, estimating longevity and informing design decisions. With degradation rates varying significantly by location, geospatial analysis is critical for PV and broader applications, such as agrivoltaics, weathering and environmental data analysis. This work presents PVDeg, an open-source tool designed for geospatial degradation analysis. PVDeg integrates meteorological data from global sources, including the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and Photovoltaic Geographical Information System (PVGIS), with degradation models. The toolkit enables users to customize geospatial workflows by integrating weather data, material parameters, and user-defined Python functions. It facilitates accelerated downloads of NSRDB and PVGIS datasets and optimizes geospatial point selection to preserve data density in regions of interest. Additionally, PVDeg provides a local database for storage and spatial queries, supporting large-scale analyses without the need for high-performance computing (HPC) resources. PVDeg provides a foundational workflow that extends its utility beyond PV applications, enabling researchers to analyze geospatial processes across discipline.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2004

Biodosimetry as a New Paradigm for Determination of Radiation Risks and Risk-Mitigation in Astronauts Exposed to Space Radiation

Predicting risk of cancer in astronauts exposed to space radiation is challenging partly because uncertainties of absorption of dose and the processing of dose-related damage at the cellular level degrade the confidence of predicting the expression of cancer. Cellular biodosimeters that simultaneously report: 1) the quantity of absorbed dose after exposure to ionizing radiation, 2) the quality of radiation delivering that dose, and 3) the macromolecular profiles related to malignant transformation in cells absorbing that dose would therefore be useful. An approach to such a multiparametric biodosimeter will be reported, This is the demonstration of two dose-responsive field-effects of enhanced protein-expression. In one case, expression of keratin 18 (K18) in cultures of human mammary epithelial cells (HMEC) irradiated with cesium-137 gamma-rays is enhanced following exposure of log phase cells to relatively low doses of 30 to 90 cGy. K18 has been reported by a marker for tumor staging and for apoptosis. In the second case, expression of connexin 43 (Cx43) is increased in irradiated stationary phase cultures of HMEC, indicating enhanced formation of gap junctions. Gap junctions have been reported to be involved in bystander effects following irradiation. It is a biodosimeter for assessing radiogenic damage. It is suggested further that such biomolecular dosimetry may introduce a new paradigm for assessing cancer risk and risk-mitigation in individuals, a requirement for managing radiation health in astronauts during extended missions in space. This new paradigm is built upon the statistical power provided by the use of functional genomics and proteomics represented in combined gene- and protein-expression assays.

Richmond, Robert↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solar Array Performance Modeling for NASA’s Artemis Missions

NASA’s Artemis exploration campaign includes multiple elements that utilize photovoltaic power generation. Artemis mission profiles feature a variety of events that can limit solar array generation and stress electrical power system (EPS) performance, including eclipses, propulsive or navigational maneuvers which constrain the positioning of the solar arrays, and spiral trajectories with significant radiation degradation. These features make predicting the performance of the power system particularly important and requires accurate modeling of power generation by the solar arrays under a variety of conditions. One of the tools used to predict spacecraft EPS performance is the System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation (SPACE) model developed at NASA Glenn Research Center. SPACE is used by NASA to model EPS performance for the Orion crew transport vehicle and the Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) of the Gateway space station. This presentation will provide an overview of how SPACE calculates solar array performance, including degradation factors considered and environmental conditions that drive the solar array designs. Additionally, Orion array performance predictions generated by SPACE will be compared to flight data collected during the Artemis I mission.

Photovoltaic↗

NASA NTRS1974

Development of a wideband pulse quaternary modulation system

Laboratory data verifying the pulse quaternary modulation (PQM) theoretical predictions is presented. The first laboratory PQM laser communication system was successfully fabricated, integrated, tested and demonstrated. System bit error rate tests were performed and, in general, indicated approximately a 2 db degradation from the theoretically predicted results. These tests indicated that no gross errors were made in the initial theoretical analysis of PQM. The relative ease with which the entire PQM laboratory system was integrated and tested indicates that PQM is a viable candidate modulation scheme for an operational 400 Mbps baseband laser communication system.

Federhofer, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Investigation of performance limits in axial groove heat pipes

The entrainment-shear performance limit which occurs in axial groove heat pipes was investigated and explained. In the existing heat pipe literature the entrainment heat flux limit is defined as the condition where the Weber number is greater than or equal to one. In this analysis, the critical value for the entrainment Weber number is found to be 2 pi less than or equal to 3 pi. Perhaps more important to the heat pipe designer than the entrainment performance limit is the prediction of the performance degradation due to vapor-liquid shearing stress which is also described. Preliminary qualitative experiments were conducted to observe the shear. stress wave formation phenomena. The equations presented may be used to predict and minimize the vapor-liquid shear stress performance effects that occur in axial groove and puddle flow artery heat pipes.

Feldman, K. T.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Physical/chemical modeling for photovoltaic module life prediction

The paper presents a generalized methodology for identification and evaluation of potential degradation and failure of terrestrial photovoltaic encapsulation. Failure progression modeling and an interaction matrix are utilized to complement the conventional approach to failure degradation mode identification. Comparison of the predicted performance based on these models can produce: (1) constraints on system or component design, materials or operating conditions, (2) qualification (predicted satisfactory function), and (3) uncertainty. The approach has been applied to an investigation of an unexpected delamination failure; it is being used to evaluate thermomechanical interactions in photovoltaic modules and to study corrosion of contacts and interconnects.

Moacanin, J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Standard Characterization Techniques for Inorganic Phase Change Materials

Salt hydrates are promising candidates for phase change materials (PCMs) because of their low cost and high energy storage capacity. However, practical applications of salt hydrate based PCMs are limited due to their poor thermal cycling performance caused by phase separation and supercooling. Various techniques, including differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and transient plane source (TPS) have been used to characterize salt hydrate based PCMs but may not provide full understanding of the degradation mechanism. In this manuscript, salt hydrate and graphite composites are prepared. Temperature history (T-History) method and X-ray diffraction (XRD) are utilized for measuring melting temperature, energy storage, and latent heat degradation of the PCM composites. Highlighting the importance of each technique and how each technique plays an important role in analyzing salt hydrates performance accurately. Temperature history, and X-ray diffraction are also used in conjunction to precisely predict the cause of degradation in salt hydrate PCMs with thermal cycling, as in most literatures the cause of degradation in salt hydrate are attributed to phase segregation, supercooling, and change in stichometry water concentration without any scientific validation.

Kumar, Navin↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predicting the creep-rupture lifetime of a cast austenitic stainless steel using Larson-Miller and Wilshire parametric approaches

An experimental dataset of just over 100 creep tests of a cast austenitic stainless steel, CF8C-Plus, was analyzed by two temperature-compensated parametric models (Larson-Miller, Wilshire et al.) to predict long-term lifetimes as functions of temperature and stress. The dataset and associated regression analyses showed greater scatter than typically found in recent similar studies of wrought Ni-based alloys by the same two models and was attributed to the microstructural inhomogeneity of the cast stainless steel. Qualitatively, the Larson-Miller formalism showed greater lifetime prediction accuracy than the Wilshire approach, with the latter model's predictive ability being particularly degraded by the presence of two very significant outlier results. This observation suggests that the Larson-Miller approach is more robust when treating rupture-time datasets that show particularly wide experimental scatter. Despite the differences in the overall predictive ability, both models yielded similar predictions of the applied stress at which CF8C-Plus would have a creep-limited lifetime of 100,000 h when loaded below the yield point.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1993

A predictive model for space-based X-ray CCD degradation

The first generation of X-ray telescopes to use Charge-Coupled Devices (CCDs) is being launched this decade. With a read noise of a few electrons, CCDs provide Fano-limited spectral resolution across the soft X-ray band (0.1 - 10 keV). However, degradation of resolution due to charge transfer losses becomes noticeable as Charge Transfer Inefficiency (CTI) increases to 10(exp -5). In this paper, we present a model which calculates the effects of radiation damage in low Earth orbit in order to predict CCD lifetimes over which good charge transfer is maintained. The model presented here considers damage mechanisms within the CCD, environmental conditions in which the CCD operates, and experiment shielding. We find that the predicted CTI approaches 10(exp -5) after a one to two year mission for the flight instruments considered here.

Antunes, Alex↗

NASA NTRS2021

What it Takes to Compute Highly Accurate Rovibrational Line Lists for Use in Astrochemistry

We review the Best Theory + Reliable High-resolution Experiment (BTRHE) strategy for obtaining highly accurate molecular rovibrational line lists with InfraRed (IR) intensities. The need for highly accurate molecular rovibrational line lists is two-fold: a) assignment of the many rovibrational lines for common stable molecules especially those that exhibit a large amplitude motion, such as NH3, or have a high density of states such as SO2; and b) characterization of the atmospheres of exoplanets which will be one of the main areas of research in astronomy in the coming decades. The first motivation arises due to the need to eliminate lines due to common molecules in an astronomical observation in order to identify lines from new molecules, while the second motivation arises due to the need to obtain accurate molecular opacities in order to characterize the atmosphere of an exoplanet. The BTRHE strategy first consists of using high quality ab initio quantum chemical methods to obtain a global potential energy surface (PES) and dipole moment surface (DMS) that contains the proper physics. The global PES is then refined using a subset of the reliable high-resolution experimental data. The refined PES then gives energy level predictions to an accuracy similar to the reproduction accuracy of the experimental data used in the refinement step in the interpolation region (i.e., within the range of the experimental data used in the refinement step). The accuracy of the energy levels will slowly degrade as they are extrapolated to spectral regions beyond the high-resolution experimental data used in the refinement step. However, because the degradation is slow, the predicted energy levels can be used to assign new high-resolution experiments, and the data from these can then be used in a subsequent refinement step. In this way, the global PES eventually can yield highly accurate energy levels for all desired spectral regions including to very high energies and high J values. We show that IR intensities computed with the BTRHE rovibrational wavefunctions and the DMS can be very accurate provided one has minimized the fitting error of the DMS and tested the completeness of the DMS. Some examples of our work on NH3, CO2, and SO2 are given to highlight the usefulness of the BTRHE strategy and to provide ideas on how to further improve its predictive power in the future. In particular, it is shown how successive refinement steps, once new high-resolution data is available, can lead to PESs that yield highly accurate transition energies to larger spectral regions. The importance of including non-adiabatic corrections to reduce the J-dependence of errors for H-containing molecules is shown with work on NH3. Another very important aspect of the BTRHE approach is the consistency across isotopologues, which allows for highly accurate line lists for any isotopologue once one is obtained for the main isotopologue (which has more high-resolution data available for refinement).

Xinchuan Huang↗

NASA NTRS2001

Cancer Risk Assessment for Space Radiation

Richmond, Robert C.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Cancer Risk Assessment for Space Radiation

Predicting the occurrence of human cancer following exposure to any agent causing genetic damage is a difficult task. This is because the uncertainty of uniform exposure to the damaging agent, and the uncertainty of uniform processing of that damage within a complex set of biological variables, degrade the confidence of predicting the delayed expression of cancer as a relatively rare event within any given clinically normal individual. The radiation health research priorities for enabling long-duration human exploration of space were established in the 1996 NRC Report entitled "Radiation Hazards to Crews of Interplanetary Missions: Biological Issues and Research Strategies". This report emphasized that a 15-fold uncertainty in predicting radiation-induced cancer incidence must be reduced before NASA can commit humans to extended interplanetary missions. That report concluded that the great majority of this uncertainty is biologically based, while a minority is physically based due to uncertainties in radiation dosimetry and radiation transport codes. Since that report, the biologically based uncertainty has remained large, and the relatively small uncertainty associated with radiation dosimetry has increased due to the considerations raised by concepts of microdosimetry. In a practical sense, however, the additional uncertainties introduced by microdosimetry are encouraging since they are in a direction of lowered effective dose absorbed through infrequent interactions of any given cell with the high energy particle component of space radiation. The biological uncertainty in predicting cancer risk for space radiation derives from two primary facts. 1) One animal tumor study has been reported that includes a relevant spectrum of particle radiation energies, and that is the Harderian gland model in mice. Fact #1: Extension of cancer risk from animal models, and especially from a single study in an animal model, to humans is inherently uncertain. 2) One human database is predominantly used for assessing cancer risk caused by space radiation, and that is the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Fact #2: The atomic-bomb-survivor database, itself a remarkable achievement, contains uncertainties. These include the actual exposure to each individual, the radiation quality of that exposure, and the fact that the exposure was to acute doses of predominantly low-LET radiation, not to chronic exposures of high-LET radiation expected on long-duration interplanetary manned missions.

Richmond, Robert C.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Time to Failure in Potential-Induced Degradation of Silicon Solar Modules based on Quantitative Sodium Kinetics

We present a physics-based simulation environment for the prediction of potential-induced-degradation (PID) failure time in silicon solar modules. Our model is based on experimental sodium migration kinetics obtained from our recently developed trap-corrected bias-stress-temperature method and from secondary ion mass spectrometry measurements. Furthermore, we model sodium migration to stacking faults and subsequent formation of conductive pathways through the p-n junction, which causes a decrease of the shunt resistance and loss of efficiency.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Biodosimeter for Multiparametric Determination of Radiation Dose, Radiation Quality, and Radiation Risk

Predicting risk of human cancer following exposure of an individual or a population to ionizing radiation is challenging. To an approximation, this is because uncertainties of uniform absorption of dose and the uniform processing of dose-related damage at the cellular level within a complex set of biological variables degrade the confidence of predicting the delayed expression of cancer as a relatively rare event. Cellular biodosimeters that simultaneously report: 1) the quantity of absorbed dose after exposure to ionizing radiation, 2) the quality of radiation delivering that dose, and 3) the risk of developing cancer by the cells absorbing that dose would therefore be useful. An approach to such a multiparametric biodosimeter will be reported. This is the demonstration of a dose responsive field effect of enhanced expression of keratin 18 (K18) in cultures of human mammary epithelial cells irradiated with cesium-1 37 gamma-rays. Dose response of enhanced K18 expression was experimentally extended over a range of 30 to 90 cGy for cells evaluated at mid-log phase. K18 has been reported to be a marker for tumor staging and for apoptosis, and thereby serves as an example of a potential marker for cancer risk, where the reality of such predictive value would require additional experimental development. Since observed radiogenic increase in expression of K18 is a field effect, ie., chronically present in all cells of the irradiated population, it may be hypothesized that K18 expression in specific cells absorbing particulate irradiation, such as the high-LET-producing atomic nuclei of space radiation, will report on both the single-cell distributions of those particles amongst cells within the exposed population, and that the relatively high dose per cell delivered by densely ionizing tracks of those intersecting particles will lead to cell-specific high-expression levels of K18, thereby providing analytical end points that may be used to resolve both the quantity and the quality of the radiation dose absorbed by individual cells. The principal value of this reported potential multiparametric cellular biodosimeter is suggested to be that it justifies a search for similar but more robust radiogenic assays. That is, K18 is only one radiation dose-sensitive expressed protein, whereas analytical techniques of genomics and proteomics can be used to simultaneously analyze multiple gene and protein expressions resulting from radiation-dose absorption. The potential usefulness of multiparametric cellular biodosimeters will be best realized from quantitatively profiling these multiple markers using these modern techniques.

Richmond, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2002

Radiation Effect on Human Tissue

Predicting the occurrence of human cancer following exposure of an epidemiologic population to any agent causing genetic damage is a difficult task. To an approximation, this is because the uncertainty of uniform exposure to the damaging agent, and the uncertainty of uniform processing of that damage within a complex set of biological variables, degrade the confidence of predicting the delayed expression of cancer as a relatively rare event within clinically normal individuals. This situation begs the need for alternate controlled experimental models that are predictive for the development of human cancer following exposures to agents causing genetic damage. Such models historically have not been of substantial proven value. It is more recently encouraging, however, that developments in molecular and cell biology have led to an expanded knowledge of human carcinogenesis, and of molecular markers associated with that process. It is therefore appropriate to consider new laboratory models developed to accomodate that expanded knowledge in order to assess the cancer risks associated with exposures to genotoxic agents. When ionizing radiation of space is the genotoxic agent, then a series of additional considerations for human cancer risk assessment must also be applied. These include the dose of radiation absorbed by tissue at different locations in the body, the quality of the absorbed radiation, the rate at which absorbed dose accumulates in tissue, the way in which absorbed dose is measured and calculated, and the alterations in incident radiation caused by shielding materials. It is clear that human cancer risk assessment for damage caused by ionizing radiation is a multidisciplinary responsibility, and that within this responsibility no single discipline can hold disproportionate sway if a risk assessment model of radiation-induced human cancer is to be developed that has proven value. Biomolecular and cellular markers from the work reported here are considered for use in assessing human cancer risk related to exposure to space radiation. This potential use must be integrated within the specified multidisciplinary context in order to create a new tool of molecular epidemiology that can hopefully then realistically assess this cancer risk.

Richmond, Robert C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Macromolecular Expression and Function: A New Paradigm for NASA Risk Assessment

Predicting risks in humans of either acute effects such as bone loss or muscle wasting, or late effects such as cancer, is challenging. To an approximation, this is because uncertainties of exposure to stress factors or toxic agents and the uniformity of processing subsequent damage at the cellular level within a complex set of biological variables degrade the confidence of predicting pathologic outcome. A cellular biodosimeter that simultaneously reports 1) the type of damage due to that exposure, 2) the quantity of damage incurred by that exposure, and 3) the dataset used to assess risk of developing pathologic outcome caused by that exposure would therefore be useful for predicting ultimate risks faced by an individual, such as an astronaut. It is suggested that such a biodosimeter can be based upon analyses of gene-expression and protein expression whereby large datasets of cellular response to damage are obtained and analyzed for expression-profiles correlated with established end points and molecular markers predictive for risks being assessed. The usefulness of multiparametric cellular biodosimeters could be realized by quantitatively profiling these datasets using techniques of bioinformatics. Such an approach contributes to the foundation of molecular epidemiology as a new scientific discipline, and represents a new paradigm of risk assessment.

Richmond, Robert↗