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At least 199 records · Page 11

DeFault: DEep‐Learning‐Based FAULT Delineation Using the IBDP Passive Seismic Data at the Decatur CO2 Storage Site

Abstract The carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) framework is an essential component in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with its success hinging on the comprehensive knowledge of subsurface geology and geomechanics. Passive seismic event relocation and fault detection offer vital insights into subsurface structures and the ability to monitor fluid migration pathways. Accurate identification and localization of seismic events, however, face significant challenges, including the necessity for high‐quality seismic data and advanced computational methods. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel deep learning method, , specifically designed for passive seismic source relocation and fault delineating for passive seismic monitoring projects. By leveraging data domain‐adaptation, allows us to train a neural network with labeled synthetic data and apply it directly to field data. Using , the passive seismic sources are automatically clustered based on their recording time and spatial locations, and subsequently, faults and fractures are delineated accordingly. We demonstrate the efficacy of on a field case study involving injection related microseismic data from Decatur, Illinois area. Our approach accurately and efficiently relocated passive seismic events, identified faults and could aid in potential damage induced by seismicity. Our results highlight the potential of as a valuable tool for passive seismic monitoring, emphasizing its role in ensuring CCUS project safety. This research bolsters the understanding of subsurface characterization in CCUS, illustrating machine learning’s capacity to refine these methods. Ultimately, our work has significant implications for CCUS technology deployment, an essential strategy in combating climate change. Plain Language Summary In our quest to tackle climate change, we use a strategy known as carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) to keep greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere. This strategy relies heavily on our ability to understand what's happening deep under the earth's surface. To make sure we store super critical safely, we need to accurately map out the geological structure, especially faults, but this is tough without high‐quality data and complex computer programs. We've developed a new tool called “DeFault,” which uses advanced machine learning to improve how we find and map these underground features. “DeFault” is smart enough to learn from numerically simulated data and then apply what it’s learned to real‐world situations. It groups together seismic activity—tiny tremors and shifts in the earth—based on when and where they happen, which helps us spot where there might be cracks or faults. We tested “DeFault” in Illinois, where CO 2 is injected underground, and it successfully pinpointed where these tremors occurred and mapped out the faults, helping to prevent accidents accurately in the future. Our study shows that “DeFault” will be a powerful ally in making CCUS safer and more effective, especially for the Illinois Basin Decatur Project. Key Points Faults and fractures introduced by carbon storage can be monitored by passive seismicity DeFault algorithm enables an automatic process for accurate and efficient passive seismic event locating and clustering

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Electrifying Airport GSE: Monte Carlo Grid Impacts

Airports globally are shifting from ICE-powered to electric Ground Support Equipment (eGSE) to enhance efficiency, reduce operational costs, and improve operator health. Leveraging predictable routes, flat terrain, and low operational speeds, airports provide ideal conditions for electrification. This study evaluates freight GSE electrification at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW), USA, using the Agile@ platform, which integrates three analytical methods: Freight Facility Model (FFM), Activity-Structure-Intensity-Fuel (ASIF), and Monte Carlo simulations. Results from 10,000 simulations indicate modest but critical increases in electricity demand and significant variability in GSE energy consumption. These insights emphasize the importance of data-driven scheduling, targeted maintenance, and strategic infrastructure planning. For high-uncertainty scenarios, airports are advised to deploy buffer energy storage systems (battery banks), implement demand-response charging strategies, schedule flexible workforce shifts, and prioritize proactive maintenance-particularly for equipment with higher operational uncertainty, such as tug tractors with trailers. Agile@ thus offers a robust, scalable, and data-driven framework to optimize long-term GSE planning and enhance reliability across diverse airport environments.

Bose, Ranjan [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000791026327)↗

STILGAR Seismic Array Data

Two three-component dense seismic arrays were deployed above an active limestone mine in Pleasant Gap, Pennsylvania; one in the fall and one in the spring of 2023. Each campaign lasted approximately four weeks and included 80 to 100 seismic stations with stations spaced between 100 and 400 meters apart. Each campaign also included several small dense seismic arrays. Two types of seismic stations were deployed including FairfieldNodal ZLand 3C All-in-One seismometers and Geospace 3C GS-ONE geophone paired with GSX3 and GSX4 dataloggers. This dataset includes ~ 4 TB of three-component continuously recorded seismic data in the miniseed format data from both campaigns as well as a readme file for the data structure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mitigation of Safety and Environmental Challenges Posed by Low and Ultra-low GWP Refrigerants

The abatement of safety and environmental burden associated with low and ultra-low Global Warming Potential (GWP) refrigerants is a critical undertaking. As the industry shifts towards more environmentally friendly alternatives, mitigating the potential risks and ensuring safety standards becomes paramount. The adoption of low GWP and ultra-low GWP refrigerants contributes significantly to minimizing the greenhouse gas impact on the environment, aligning with global climate and sustainability goals. However, it is essential to address safety concerns and potential environmental implications associated with the end use of these refrigerants.A method to mitigate the safety risk in a flammable refrigerant based HVACR system is the primary focus of this paper. Advent of A2L and A3 refrigerants as replacements to high GWP refrigerants requires careful handling of leak episodes to lower or eliminate the risk associated with creating flammable mixtures capable of fire/explosion hazard. Solid materials tailored to target the molecule of interest (i.e., refrigerant.) by engineering the microporous structure as well as chemically functionalizing the surface to attract and hold on to the chemical compound being removed from the gas stream was realized. Additionally, a chromatic transformation technique is investigated for rapid on-site analysis of refrigerant blends. Preliminary results demonstrating the feasibility of both of these methods for successful deployment of low-GWP refrigerants are presented.

Cheekatamarla, Praveen↗

WFIP3

The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project 3 (WFIP-3) is the first offshore-based wind resource characterization project within the WFIP construct, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. WFIP-3 will provide a unique field study that will deliver the comprehensive suite of data needed to inform a series of modeling efforts that will develop and evaluate parameterization schemes suited to offshore environments and improved industry-targeted applications. The field study has two goals: (1) detailed sampling of the vertical structure of the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL) at key observational areas, creating a rich dataset that will be used to refine and validate parameterization schemes, and (2) wide-area sampling of the MABL to create a multi-scale array of observations informing and guiding models of resource characterization. We will deploy a multi-platform array of measurements that span the MABL and create a multi-scale observational array stretching south from Marth’s Vineyard across the wind energy areas.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Feasibility of Recycling Discharged Microreactor Heavy Metal in Light Water and Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors: A Neutronics Analysis

Nuclear microreactors (MRs) offer unique advantages, such as rapid deployment, potability, low maintenance requirements, and operational flexibility. Their compact size makes them a promising solution for decentralized power generation, particularly in remote areas, military bases, and disaster-stricken regions. However, MRs face challenges, including unutilized fissile material at the end of life, economic inefficiency, increased heavy metal (HM) waste complicating disposal, and the accumulation of plutonium (Pu) with high 239 Pu concentrations raising proliferation risks. Here, this study investigated the neutronics feasibility of a novel three-stage fuel cycle where discharged HM from MRs is recycled and burned in light water reactors and sodium-cooled fast reactors. This approach converts discharged HM into valuable fuel, enhancing the efficiency of MR deployments while improving the safeguardability of their final waste products. Neutronics analysis demonstrated that the safety characteristics of reactor designs in each stage were minimally impacted by the proposed cycle. For two representative MR designs, a fast-spectrum MR with solid pellet fuel and a thermal-spectrum MR with TRISO (TRi-structural-ISOtropic) fuel compacts, the proposed fuel cycle reduced the uranium disposal mass flow rate by ~60%, decreased the 235 U enrichment of the discharge fuel to ~1 wt%, eliminated plutonium disposal, and increased the cumulative fuel burnup to ~580 gigawatt-day per metric ton of initial heavy metal (GWd/t-iHM) or 60% fissions per initial metal atom. Despite the significant differences between the two MR designs, the performance and infrastructure requirements of the developed fuel cycles were remarkably similar, indicating its generalizability to a broader class of MRs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Evaluation of Radiation Transport Through a Nuclear-Grade Sandwich Composite

The development and deployment of microreactors are often synonymous with their transportability; however, designing a shield which is appropriate for both transportation and operations is challenging. A recent approach is the use of composite style shield which combines the reactor pressure vessel and biological shielding into a single unit to enhance the shields effectiveness without degrading the structural properties. To assess the viability of a nuclear grade sandwich composite (NGSC), and understanding of how radiation transports through the shield needs to be understood to select the appropriate materials. This work examines a two-layered NGSC of varying thicknesses with two primary shielding materials (tungsten-tetraboride cermet and boron carbide). To assess the NGSC, quantities of interest including neutron attenuation, photon attenuation, energy deposition, displacements per atom, helium generation, and dose are examined. Altogether, it is found that a combination of both tungsten-tetraboride and boron carbide are necessary to act as an appropriate shield, where the order in which these materials are place in the composite are important to their effectiveness.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Advanced Mooring Lines for Marine Energy Workshop – Summary Report

This report summarizes the outcomes of the virtual Advanced Mooring Lines for Marine Energy Workshop. The workshop convened experts from industry, academia, and national laboratories to identify key challenges associated with the deployment of synthetic mooring lines for marine energy applications. Discussions focused on four technical areas—materials, failure and degradation, testing, and modeling. Despite the significant promise of leveraging synthetic mooring systems for marine energy applications, discussion highlighted broader research and development needed to address the lack of validated long-term performance data, insufficient structural health monitoring frameworks, limited large-scale testing capabilities, and gaps in predictive modeling. Overall, the workshop emphasized the importance of coordinated research and development efforts to advance reliable, durable, and cost-effective synthetic mooring solutions for marine energy applications.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Emerging mobile lidar technology to study boundary layer winds influenced by operating turbines

The development of a microjoule-class pulsed Doppler lidar and deployment of this compact system on mobile platforms such as aircraft, ships, or trucks have opened a new opportunity to characterize the dynamics of complex mesoscale wind flows. The PickUp-based Mobile Atmospheric Sounder (PUMAS) truck-based lidar system was recently used during the American Wake Experiment (AWAKEN) to assess the general structure of boundary layer (BL) wind and turbulence around wind turbines in central Oklahoma. Wind speed profiles averaged over PUMAS transects influenced by the operating turbines (waked flow) show a 1–2 m s −1 reduction compared to mean undisturbed (free flow) wind speed profiles. Spatial variability in wind speed was observed in time–height cross-sections at different distances from turbines. The wind speeds were about 9–12 m s −1 at 6 km distance compared to 5–7 m s −1 at the transects near the turbines. The PUMAS dataset from AWAKEN demonstrated the capability of the mobile Doppler lidar system to document spatial variability in wind flows at different distances from wind turbines and obtain quantitative estimates of wind speed reduction in the waked flow. The high-frequency, simultaneous measurements of the horizontal and vertical winds provide a new approach for characterizing dynamic processes critical for wind farm wake analyses.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Geochemical and Microbial Dynamics of Hydrogen in a Methane Storage Reservoir

Hydrogen has been identified as a flexible energy carrier with zero or negative emission across multiple energy systems, and existing natural gas infrastructure could be leveraged if hydrogen gas (H2) was blended with methane (CH4). For example, subsurface methane storage reservoirs could be slightly modified to also store hydrogen if a methane/hydrogen blend were injected. However, the compatibility of methane storage reservoirs to include H2 injection has not been fully demonstrated, and this could lead to geochemical and microbiological reactions that alter the reservoir and stored gas content. It is essential that we understand the impact of H2 gas on the biogeochemistry of subsurface storage reservoirs before deploying large-scale H2-CH4 storage, We collected produced fluid from two separate methane storage reservoirs in the Southwestern US. First, we completed a baseline analysis of the biogeochemistry through qPCR, 16S rRNA sequencing, metagenomic sequencing, and geochemical analysis. Each reservoir was found to have unique geochemical conditions and a unique microbial community structure, with Site 1 having a higher TDS and an abundance of Shewanella and Site 2 having a lower TDS and high abundance of Eubacterium and Acetobacterium. Next, we ran a series of high pressure, high temperature reactors under hydrogen storage conditions with the biological sample from one of the storage reservoirs and a 20% H2-80% CH4 gas blend for up to 7 days. Our results show a decrease of hydrogen by 5% in reactors as early as 1-3 days. Previous hydrogen storage work has linked subsurface microorganisms with methanogenesis hydrogen sulfide production, acid production, and microbial corrosion. Our results show minimal change in the fluid chemistry, with the exception of a decrease in dissolved sulfate concentrations. Taxonomic sequencing demonstrated the presence of microorganisms capable of iron redox, acid generation, and hydrogen sulfide production throughout the reactors, suggesting microbial hydrogen consumption may occur through various metabolic pathways. This work demonstrates that site-specific geochemistry and microbiology may impact the efficiency of hydrogen storage in methane storage reservoirs.

environmental microbiology↗

Illinois Storage Corridor CarbonSAFE Phase III: Stakeholder Engagement and Outreach Plan

The Stakeholder Engagement and Outreach Plan provides a comprehensive framework for engaging stakeholders of the Illinois Storage Corridor (ISC) project. The ISC project is a CarbonSAFE Phase III project designed to facilitate commercial deployment of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in Illinois. The project aims to establish a multi-industry carbon storage corridor through development of storage sites near the One Earth Energy (OEE) ethanol production facility in north-central Illinois and the Prairie State Generating Company (PSGC) coal-fired power plant in south-central Illinois, with combined annual CO 2 capture ultimately exceeding 8.6 million tons per year. Stakeholder engagement is recognized as a critical component for successful CCUS deployment, alongside technical and economic considerations. As an emerging technology, CCUS may not be well understood by the general population, and lack of public awareness can lead to opposition that poses significant barriers to project development. This plan addresses this challenge through systematic stakeholder identification, analysis, planning, and implementation of engagement actions. The plan is structured around four main sections: Communication, Stakeholder Analysis, Stakeholder Engagement, and Environmental Justice. Activities will be conducted under Tasks 1 and 4 of the project's Statement of Project Objectives, with two key subtasks: (1) developing a stakeholder analysis and engagement plan through face-to-face meetings, facilitated discussions, and surveys; and (2) implementing stakeholder engagement and public outreach activities including meetings, open houses, and permit hearings. The Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS) will manage engagement activities following DOE-NETL best practices, focusing on providing objective, fact-based information about CCUS and the ISC project. A comprehensive Communication Plan establishes protocols for media contacts, site visits, and crisis communications. The stakeholder analysis follows a structured workflow process divided into Pre-feasibility and Feasibility phases, incorporating contextual understanding, assessment, data collection, and analysis. Key stakeholder groups include government bodies, educational organizations, conservation and environmental groups, agricultural communities, and religious organizations. The plan addresses common stakeholder questions regarding project risks, benefits, safety, property values, liability, and environmental impacts. Recommendations emphasize developing clear messaging, creating informational materials, and preparing to address both project-specific and broader environmental concerns to ensure transparent communication and build stakeholder support throughout project implementation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Chemical Recommender System: Replacement Suggestions for Small Molecules

The Chemical Recommender System (CRS) is an open-source, high-performance toolkit that enables real-time similarity searches across the complete PubChem database (over 50 million molecules) using commodity hardware. The CRS addresses critical limitations in existing chemical informatics platforms through a novel vector database infrastructure, extensible model integration capabilities, and complete algorithmic transparency. The system implements a vector database deployment with partitioned indexing that achieves a ~60x speedup over traditional approaches. A containerized model integration framework allows researchers to seamlessly incorporate custom predictive models into the full-scale search and scoring pipeline, while complete configurability of search parameters, filtering logic, and scoring functions provides capabilities not available in existing black-box solutions. Beyond structural similarity, the CRS integrates OPERA QSAR models for thermophysical and toxicity predictions, RDKit synthetic accessibility scoring, and user-defined models to compute weighted final replacement scores. The complete system is accessible through an interactive web application supporting real-time progress monitoring, post-processing score re-weighting, automated PDF reporting, and batch processing capabilities.

Nair, Parthiv Anand [Sandia National Laboratories ↗

Management of Risks Associated with Application of Novel Materials in Novel Operating Environments in Novel Reactor Designs

There is currently no widely agreed, detailed general method for licensing a novel plant incorporating novel materials (or materials being deployed in novel environments); in many such situations, there are no directly applicable engineering code cases for decision-makers (including regulators) to rely on. This paper discusses a framework for solving this problem that is based on the Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) approach delineated in ASME BPVC Section XI Division 2. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.246, Rev. 0, endorses, with conditions, the subject portion of the ASME Code. The proposed framework is meant to support development of a licensing case by addressing certain technical challenges. The framework discussed here is compatible with the Licensing Modernization Project, but applying it in a specific case will call for advances in the state of practice, if not the state of the art. The RIM approach calls for applicants to (a) allocate reliability targets to plant structures, systems, and components (SSCs), (b) show that they are able to relate the currently observed physical condition of each SSC in the program to its failure probability well enough to determine whether the target reliability allocations are being satisfied, allowing for uncertainty related to the novelty of the materials/designs/operating environments, and (c) be able to demonstrate that the proposed program of surveillances will reliably detect unacceptable degradation of an SSC before SSC failure occurs. These challenges are discussed in the paper, and a potentially applicable modeling approach based on cumulative damage rather than failure rates is briefly illustrated.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

FPMS_XPeRT_INL_Poster

As nuclear energy expands and experimental programs increasingly rely on the facilities at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for reactor and fuel testing, research capabilities must also expand to meet these demands. A new Fission Product Monitoring System (FPMS) has been deployed at the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at the Auxiliary Lead-out Experiment (ALE) House to support this expanding fuel testing mission. By tracking gaseous fission products releases from test fuel in near real-time, release rates, calculated from FPMS data, can be used to characterize the effectiveness of fuel cladding, especially for Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) fuel concepts. The new iteration of the FPMS supports up to 14 fission product monitors for online fission-product tracking via gamma-ray spectroscopy of the experiment’s effluent gas. Each monitor consists of a nominally 10% HPGe detector housed in a copper-lined lead shield with a warm gas trap. The new system features gamma-ray count rate information with a five-second temporal resolution and provides isotopic activity every five minutes, capable of resolving multiple overlapping fission product releases over a broad range of activities in near real-time. This work includes data from ATR cycle 175D data to demonstrate these capabilities. The hourly resolution data shows general trends and significant releases over the cycle, while the 5-minute resolution data allows for a more detailed examination of events due to unexpected particle releases.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

Deployment of BISON models of fuel restructuring at high burnup and related fission gas behavior in UO 2

This milestone report details the advancements made in fiscal year 2024 under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program to improve the modeling of fission gas behavior in high burnup UO 2 nuclear fuel in the BISON fuel performance code. As nuclear fuel is pushed to higher burnups, significant microstructural changes occur within the fuel, including the formation of a high burnup structure (HBS) on the pellet rim and a dark zone deeper within the pellet. These regions, characterized by subgrain formation and increased pore densities, have critical implications for fission gas behavior and release, which are not well understood. The modeling capabilities in BISON did not adequately predict these phenomena, leading to an underestimation of fuel restructuring and - potentially - of fission gas release. To address these gaps, this milestone focused on three key objectives: (1) reviewing and assessing Sifgrs's capabilities for low burnup fuel, on which high burnup capabilities rely, (2) validating and expanding HBS fission gas modeling capabilities, including investigating mechanisms for fission gas release from HBS, and (3) expanding Sifgrs to enable modeling of dark zone formation and its effects on fission gas behavior. These objectives were achieved and are described herein. The achievements of this NEAMS milestone are significant for the industry's goal of burnup extension. The improved predictive modeling capabilities for both low- and high-burnup conditions enhance our understanding of fuel performance under both normal operations and transient scenarios. Although goals were reached, future work is necessary to validate these models against experimental data and quantify their accuracy in different conditions. In parallel, mechanistic modeling efforts should continue to extend and refine these capabilities to increase accuracy while reducing reliance on empirical models. This will ensure robust performance across a broader range of conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Using automated machine learning for the upscaling of gross primary productivity

Estimating gross primary productivity (GPP) over space and time is fundamental for understanding the response of the terrestrial biosphere to climate change. Eddy covariance flux towers provide in situ estimates of GPP at the ecosystem scale, but their sparse geographical distribution limits larger-scale inference. Machine learning (ML) techniques have been used to address this problem by extrapolating local GPP measurements over space using satellite remote sensing data. However, the accuracy of the regression model can be affected by uncertainties introduced by model selection, parameterization, and choice of explanatory features, among others. Recent advances in automated ML (AutoML) provide a novel automated way to select and synthesize different ML models. In this work, we explore the potential of AutoML by training three major AutoML frameworks on eddy covariance measurements of GPP at 243 globally distributed sites. We compared their ability to predict GPP and its spatial and temporal variability based on different sets of remote sensing explanatory variables. Explanatory variables from only Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data and photosynthetically active radiation explained over 70 % of the monthly variability in GPP, while satellite-derived proxies for canopy structure, photosynthetic activity, environmental stressors, and meteorological variables from reanalysis (ERA5-Land) further improved the frameworks' predictive ability. We found that the AutoML framework Auto-sklearn consistently outperformed other AutoML frameworks as well as a classical random forest regressor in predicting GPP but with small performance differences, reaching an r 2 of up to 0.75. We deployed the best-performing framework to generate global wall-to-wall maps highlighting GPP patterns in good agreement with satellite-derived reference data. This research benchmarks the application of AutoML in GPP estimation and assesses its potential and limitations in quantifying global photosynthetic activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Compressing Vision Transformers in Geospatial Transfer Learning with Manifold-Constrained Optimization

Deploying geospatial foundation models on resource-constrained edge devices demands compact architectures that maintain high downstream performance. However, their large parameter counts and the accuracy loss often induced by compression limit practical adoption.In this work, we leverage manifold-constrained optimization framework DLRT to compress large vision transformer–based geospatial foundation models during transfer learning. By enforcing structured low-dimensional parameterizations aligned with downstream objectives, this approach achieves strong compression while preserving task-specific accuracy. We show that the method outperforms of-the-shelf low-rank methods as LoRA. Experiments on diverse geospatial benchmarks confirm substantial parameter reduction with minimal accuracy loss, enabling high-performing, on-device geospatial models.

Snyder, Thomas [Yale University]↗

Feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors in Africa

This report assesses the feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors, including large-scale plants, advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), and microreactors, in African countries. Case studies focus on South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria, examining nuclear energy’s role in Africa’s rapidly evolving energy landscape, marked by fast-growing demand, significant electricity access gaps, increasing renewable penetration, and strong policy commitments to industrialization and energy security. Several U.S. reactor technologies and designs are considered based on their development status and readiness for deployment. The analysis finds that nuclear power can provide reliable, clean baseload and flexible generation, as well as high-temperature process heat for desalination, hydrogen production, and industrial applications. However, suitability is highly country-specific, depending on grid size and stability, transmission capacity, cooling water availability, regulatory readiness, and fuel supply chains. Near-term deployment opportunities are strongest for light-water reactors (such as NuScale, BWRX-300, AP300, and SMR-300) that use low-enriched uranium and build on proven technology. More advanced concepts, including gas-cooled, sodium-cooled, molten-salt cooled reactors, and microreactors, will likely be relevant for African deployment in the 2030s or later, contingent on demonstration projects, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel availability, and mature international licensing frameworks. Economic analysis shows that SMRs are capital-intensive, with projected overnight costs for 300 MWe units in 2025 ranging from approximately 1.4 to 2.6 billion USD per module. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is highly sensitive to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Given typically higher financing costs and utility balance-sheet weaknesses in many African countries, bankable project structures will require sovereign guarantees, robust offtake arrangements, and layered financing from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and vendor nations. Comparisons with recent large nuclear projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt underscore the central role of state-backed loans, long tenors, and concessional terms. Country case studies illustrate a spectrum of readiness and opportunity. South Africa operates two 920 MWe pressurized light water reactors (totaling 1,840 MWe) at Koeberg and has the most mature regulatory and industrial base, positioning it as a prime candidate for both large reactors and SMRs to replace coal, support desalination, and anchor industrial hubs. Egypt is constructing four VVER-1200 units at El Dabaa with strong state leadership and could later complement this fleet with SMRs for coastal and industrial applications. Kenya and Ghana are advancing through IAEA Milestones with growing institutional capacity and clear interest in SMRs that match their smaller grids and industrialization plans. Nigeria has the largest demand potential but faces acute constraints in grid reliability, project bankability, and regulatory capacity; targeted deployments of large reactors and SMRs near coastal or industrial sites could have high impact if accompanied by major grid upgrades and institutional reforms. The report identifies cross-cutting challenges such as financing, political continuity, public acceptance, nonproliferation and security, waste and back-end management, regulatory capacity, grid adequacy, and long deployment timelines for first-of-a-kind designs, and ANL/NSE-26/3 ii proposes broad directions for resolution. These include stronger multifaceted financing for nuclear, long-term national energy strategies that transcend electoral cycles, proactive stakeholder engagement, strengthened regional and national regulators, and systematic workforce development through centers of excellence and expanded training. The United States should develop partnerships with African countries and offer end-to-end nuclear package similar to those used effectively by competitors: coordinated project development, state-backed financing, long-term fuel services, and durable in-country support through regional offices and sustained workforce/regulatory training. With timely planning, sustained political commitment, and appropriate financing and institutional support, nuclear energy, both large reactors and advanced SMRs, can become a meaningful, though not dominant, pillar of Africa’s future power mix, enhancing energy security, enabling industrial growth, and supporting climate goals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗