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NASA NTRS2008

The 2008 Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak: Synthetic Dual Doppler Analysis of Contrasting Tornadic Storm Types

During the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak on 5-6 February, a significant number of storms passed within about 40 km of WSR-88D radars. This distance, combined with the significant motion vector (from the southwest at 20-25 m per second) of relatively steady storms, is amenable to a synthetic dual Doppler analysis during the times when the storms passed the WSR-88D locations. Nine storms will be analyzed using the SDD technique. The following table provides their general characteristics and nearest approach to the 88D radars. For this data set, storm structure ranges from isolated supercell to QLCS. Each storm will be analyzed for a 40-60 min period during passage by the WSR-88D radar to determine general storm properties. Analysis of high-resolution single Doppler data around the time of passage (plus or minus 30 min), combined with 1-2 SDD analyses, will be used to examine the kinematic structure of low-level circulations (e.g., mesocyclone, downdraft) and the relation to the parent storm. This analysis may provide insights on the fundamental differences between cyclonic circulations in supercell storms and those within QCLS's.

Knupp, Kevin R.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Life of a Six-Hour Hurricane

Hurricane Claudette developed from a weak vortex in 6 h as deep convection shifted from downshear into the vortex center, despite ambient vertical wind shear exceeding 10 m/s. Six hours later it weakened to a tropical storm, and 12 h after the hurricane stage a circulation center could not be found at 850 hPa by aircraft reconnaissance. At hurricane strength the vortex contained classic structure seen in intensifying hurricanes, with the exception of 7-12 C dewpoint depressions in the lower troposphere upshear of the center. These extended from the 100-km radius to immediately adjacent to the eyewall, where equivalent potential temperature gradients reached 6 K/km. The dry air was not present prior to intensification, suggesting that it was associated with vertical shear-induced subsidence upshear of the developing storm. It is argued that weakening of the vortex was driven by cooling associated with the mixing of dry air into the core, and subsequent evaporation and cold downdrafts. Evidence suggests that this mixing might have been enhanced by eyewall instabilities after the period of rapid deepening. The existence of a fragile, small, but genuinely hurricane-strength vortex at the surface for 6 h presents difficult problems for forecasters. Such a "temporary hurricane" in strongly sheared flow might require a different warning protocol than longer-lasting hurricane vortices in weaker shear.

Shelton, Kay L.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Apollo-Era Life Rafts Save Hundreds of Sailors

The space shuttle is unique among spacecraft in that it glides back to Earth and lands like an airplane, usually touching ground near where it launched at Kennedy Space Center, but sometimes, in poor weather, gliding into the back-up landing site at Dryden Flight Research Center and then catching a ride back to the Cape on the back of a modified Boeing 747. Before NASA began flying the shuttle, though, astronauts had a longer, more involved trip back to base after a mission. Their capsule, called the command module, would plunge through the atmosphere before releasing a series of parachutes that would slow the craft enough for it to land on the water without too significant of an impact. Called a splashdown, this type of landing put the astronauts out in the ocean, where a specially designated U.S. Navy ship would then deploy a helicopter to retrieve the space travelers. Waiting for the rescue, the astronauts would release a highly visible marker dye into the water, then leave the command module and climb aboard a life raft. These early space pioneers had traveled thousands of miles and then landed safely back on Earth. The journey s end was in sight, but they had one more obstacle. The rotor downdraft from the helicopter coming to retrieve them, reaching sometimes as much as 100 knots per hour, was enough to flip a typical flat-bottomed life raft. Not willing to be thwarted after coming so far, NASA engineers began devising a solution. They knew they needed a highly stable inflatable raft capable of riding out the rough winds, and the solution was to make use of the most abundant resource available: water. Engineers at NASA s Johnson Space Center went to work designing and patenting a hydrodynamically stabilized ballast system that would prevent a life raft from tipping in choppy seas and fierce winds.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2010

Reevaluating the Role of Saharan Air Layer in Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis and Evolution

The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air that frequently moves westward off of the Saharan desert of Africa and over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. As air moves over the desert, it is strongly heated from below, producing a very hot air mass at low levels. Because there is no moisture source over the Sahara, the rise in temperature causes a sharp drop in relative humidity, thus drying the air. In addition, the warm air produces a very strong jet of easterly flow in the middle troposphere called the African easterly jet that is thought to play a critical role in hurricane formation. In recent years, there has been an increased focus on the impact that the SAL has on the formation and evolution of hurricanes in the Atlantic. However, the nature of its impact remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The argument for positively influencing hurricane development is based upon the fact that the African easterly jet provides an energy source for the waves that eventually form hurricanes and that it leads to rising motion south of the jet that favors the development of deep thunderstorm clouds. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) low-level vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm SAL air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability and suppresses cloud development; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts in precipitating regions, thereby removing energy needed for storm development. As part of this recent focus on the SAL and hurricanes (which motivated a 2006 NASA field experiment), there has been little emphasis on the SAL s potential positive influences and almost complete emphasis on its possible negative influences, almost to the point of claims that the SAL is the major suppressing influence on hurricanes in the Atlantic. In this study, multiple NASA satellite data sets (TRMM, MODIS, CALIPSO, and AIRS/AMSU) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction global analyses are used to see if the proposed negative influences deserve all of the attention they have recently received. The results show that storms generally form on the southern side of the African jet, where favorable background rotation is high. The jet often helps to form the northern side of the storms and is typically stronger in storms that intensify than those that weaken, suggesting that jet-induced vertical wind shear is not a negative influence on developing storms. Warm SAL air is confined to regions north of the jet and generally does not impact the tropical cyclone precipitation south of the jet. A comparison of the environments of strongly strengthening storms and of weakening storms shows no differences in SAL structure, indicating that the SAL has little influence on whether storms weaken or intensify. The large-scale flow at upper levels above the SAL was found to be most important, with the environment of strengthening storms having very little vertical wind shear and also favoring more expansive outflow from the storm. The SAL is shown to occur in a large-scale environment that is already characteristically dry as a result of large-scale subsidence (sinking air motions). Strong surface heating and deep dry convective mixing enhance dryness at low levels, but moisten the air at midlevels. Therefore, mid-to-upper-level dryness is not a defining characteristic of the SAL, but is instead a signature of subsidence. As a result, we conclude that the SAL is not the major negative influence on hurricanes that recent studies have emphasized. It is just one of many possible influences and can be both positive and negative.

Braun, Scott A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Re-Evaluating the Role of the Saharan Air Layer in Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis and Evolution

The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air frequently present over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. The nature of its impact on hurricanes remains unclear, however, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. Most research in recent years has emphasized the potential negative impacts of the SAL, but is this emphasis justified? The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability at the base of the SAL; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts. Multiple NASA satellite data sets and NCEP global analyses are used to characterize the SAL's properties and evolution in relation to tropical cyclones and to evaluate these potential negative influences. The results suggest that the negative influences of the SAL have been significantly over-emphasized, in part because of several false assumptions about the structure and role of the SAL.

Braun, Scott A.↗

NASA NTRS2009

2D and 3D Numerical Simulations of Flux Cancellation

Cancellation of magnetic flux in the solar photosphere and chromosphere has been linked observationally and theoretically to a broad range of solar activity, from filament channel formation to CME initiation. Because this phenomenon is typically measured at only a single layer in the atmosphere, in the radial (line of sight) component of the magnetic field, the actual processes behind this observational signature are ambiguous. It is clear that reconnection is involved in some way, but the location of the reconnection sites and associated connectivity changes remain uncertain in most cases. We are using numerical modeling to demystify flux cancellation, beginning with the simplest possible configuration: a subphotospheric Lundquist flux tube surrounded by a potential field, immersed in a gravitationally stratified atmosphere, spanning many orders of magnitude in plasma beta. In this system, cancellation is driven slowly by a 2-cell circulation pattern imposed in the convection zone, such that the tops of the cells are located around the beta=1 level (i.e., the photosphere) and the flows converge and form a downdraft at the polarity inversion line; note however that no flow is imposed along the neutral line. We will present the results of 2D and 3D MHD-AMR simulations of flux cancellation, in which the flux at the photosphere begins in either an unsheared or sheared state. In all cases, a low-lying flux rope is formed by reconnection at the polarity inversion line within a few thousand seconds. The flux rope remains stable and does not rise, however, in contrast to models which do not include the presence of significant mass loading.

Karpen, Judith T.↗

NASA NTRS2009

20 and 3D Numerical Simulations of Flux Cancellation

Cancellation of magnetic flux in the solar photosphere and chromosphere has been linked observationally and theoretically to a broad range of solar activity, from filament channel formation to CME initiation. Because this phenomenon is typically measured at only a single layer in the atmosphere, in the radial (line of sight) component of the magnetic field, the actual processes behind this observational signature are ambiguous. It is clear that reconnection is involved in some way, but the location of the reconnection sites and associated connectivity changes remain uncertain in most cases. We are using numerical modeling to demystify flux cancellation, beginning with the simplest possible configuration: a subphotospheric Lundquist flux tube surrounded by a potential field, immersed in a gravitationally stratified atmosphere, spanning many orders of magnitude in plasma beta. In this system, cancellation is driven slowly by a 2-cell circulation pattern imposed in the convection zone, such that the tops of the cells are located around the beta= 1 level (Le., the photosphere) and the flows converge and form a downdraft at the polarity inversion line; note however that no flow is imposed along the neutral line. We will present the results of 2D and 3D MHD-AMR simulations of flux cancellation, in which the flux at the photosphere begins in either an unsheared or sheared state. In all cases, a lOW-lying flux rope is formed by reconnection at the polarity inversion line within a few thousand seconds. The flux rope remains stable and does not rise, however, in contrast to models which do not include the presence of significant mass loading.

Karpen, Judith T.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Time-Series Analyses of Supergranule Characteristics Compared Between SDO/HMI, SOHO/MDI and Simulated Datasets

Supergranulation is a well-observed solar phenomenon despite its underlying mechanisms remaining a mystery. Originally considered to arise due to convective motions, alternative mechanisms have been suggested such as the cumulative downdrafts of granules as well as displaying wave-like properties. Supergranule characteristics are well documented, however. Supergranule cells are approximately 35 Mm across, have lifetimes on the order of a day and have divergent horizontal velocities of around 300 mis, a factor of 10 higher than their central radial components. While they have been observed using Doppler methods for more than half a century, their existence is also observed in other datasets such as magneto grams and Ca II K images. These datasets clearly show the influence of supergranulation on solar magnetism and how the local field is organized by the flows of supergranule cells. The Heliospheric and Magnetic Imager (HMI) aboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) continues to produce Doppler images enabling the continuation of supergranulation studies made with SOHO/MDI, but with superior temporal and spatial resolution. The size-distribution of divergent cellular flows observed on the photosphere now reaches down to granular scales, allowing contemporaneous comparisons between the two flow components. SOHO/MDI Doppler observations made during the minima of cycles 22/23 and 23/24 exhibit fluctuations of supergranule characteristics (global averages of the supergranule size, size-range and horizontal velocity) with periods of 3-5 days. Similar fluctuations have been observed in SDO/HMI Dopplergrams and the high correlation between co-temporal HMI & MOl suggest a solar origin. Their nature has been probed by invoking data simulations that produce realistic Dopplergrams based on MOl data.

Williams, Peter E.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Characteristics of Deep Tropical and Subtropical Convection from Nadir-Viewing High-Altitude Airborne Doppler Radar

This paper presents observations of deep convection characteristics in the tropics and subtropics that have been classified into four categories: tropical cyclone, oceanic, land, and sea breeze. Vertical velocities in the convection were derived from Doppler radar measurements collected during several NASA field experiments from the nadir-viewing high-altitude ER-2 Doppler radar (EDOP). Emphasis is placed on the vertical structure of the convection from the surface to cloud top (sometimes reaching 18-km altitude). This unique look at convection is not possible from other approaches such as ground-based or lower-altitude airborne scanning radars. The vertical motions from the radar measurements are derived using new relationships between radar reflectivity and hydrometeor fall speed. Various convective properties, such as the peak updraft and downdraft velocities and their corresponding altitude, heights of reflectivity levels, and widths of reflectivity cores, are estimated. The most significant findings are the following: 1) strong updrafts that mostly exceed 15 m/s, with a few exceeding 30 m/s, are found in all the deep convection cases, whether over land or ocean; 2) peak updrafts were almost always above the 10-km level and, in the case of tropical cyclones, were closer to the 12-km level; and 3) land-based and sea-breeze convection had higher reflectivities and wider convective cores than oceanic and tropical cyclone convection. In addition, the high-resolution EDOP data were used to examine the connection between reflectivity and vertical velocity, for which only weak linear relationships were found. The results are discussed in terms of dynamical and microphysical implications for numerical models and future remote sensors.

Heymsfield, Gerald M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Impact of Microphysical Schemes on Hurricane Intensity and Track

During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models [e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)] have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. WRF is a next-generation meso-scale forecast model and assimilation system. It incorporates a modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numerics and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. WRF can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options. At NASA Goddard, four different cloud microphysics options have been implemented into WRF. The performance of these schemes is compared to those of the other microphysics schemes available in WRF for an Atlantic hurricane case (Katrina). In addition, a brief review of previous modeling studies on the impact of microphysics schemes and processes on the intensity and track of hurricanes is presented and compared against the current Katrina study. In general, all of the studies show that microphysics schemes do not have a major impact on track forecasts but do have more of an effect on the simulated intensity. Also, nearly all of the previous studies found that simulated hurricanes had the strongest deepening or intensification when using only warm rain physics. This is because all of the simulated precipitating hydrometeors are large raindrops that quickly fall out near the eye-wall region, which would hydrostatically produce the lowest pressure. In addition, these studies suggested that intensities become unrealistically strong when evaporative cooling from cloud droplets and melting from ice particles are removed as this results in much weaker downdrafts in the simulated storms. However, there are many differences between the different modeling studies, which are identified and discussed.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Impact of Microphysical Schemes on Intensity and Track of Hurricane

During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models [e.g. Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)] have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with a 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. The WRF is a next-generation meso-scale forecast model and assimilation system that has incorporated a modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numeric and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. The WRF model can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options. At Goddard, four different cloud microphysics schemes (warm rain only, two-class of ice, two three-class of ice with either graupel or hail) are implemented into the WRF. The performances of these schemes have been compared to those from other WRF microphysics scheme options for an Atlantic hurricane case. In addition, a brief review and comparison on the previous modeling studies on the impact of microphysics schemes and microphysical processes on intensity and track of hurricane will be presented. Generally, almost all modeling studies found that the microphysics schemes did not have major impacts on track forecast, but did have more effect on the intensity. All modeling studies found that the simulated hurricane has rapid deepening and/or intensification for the warm rain-only case. It is because all hydrometeors were very large raindrops, and they fell out quickly at and near the eye-wall region. This would hydrostatically produce the lowest pressure. In addition, these modeling studies suggested that the simulated hurricane becomes unrealistically strong by removing the evaporative cooling of cloud droplets and melting of ice particles. This is due to the much weaker downdraft simulated. However, there are many differences between different modeling studies and these differences were identified and discussed.

Tao, W. K.↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Storm Integrated Lightning Flash Extent

The objective of this preliminary study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern the production of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in thunderstorms, such as flash rate, type and extent. The mixed-phase region is where the noninductive charging (NIC) process is thought to generate most storm electrification during rebounding collisions between ice particles in the presence of supercooled water. As a result, prior radar-based studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate is well correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume, graupel mass, or ice mass flux. There is also some evidence that lightning type is associated with the convective state. Intracloud (IC) lightning tends to dominate during the updraft accumulation of precipitation ice mass while cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is more numerous during the downdraft-driven descent of radar echo associated with graupel and hail. More study is required to generalize these relationships, especially regarding lightning type, in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co-evolving relationship between storm kinematics, microphysics, morphology and three-dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for lightning NOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA MSFC Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection NetworkTM (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to well isolated convective cells on 3 April 2007 (single cell and multi-cell hailstorm, non-severe multicell) and 6 July 2007 (non-severe multi-cell) over Northern Alabama. The LNOM lightning characteristics are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby Doppler radar network, including the UA Huntsville Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, C-band, polarimetric). The LNOM estimated SAD and lightning NOx production profiles are placed in the context of radar derived profiles of vertical motion, precipitation types and amounts. Finally, these analyses are used to determine if storm integrated flash channel extent is as well correlated to volumetric updraft and precipitation ice characteristics in the mixed phase region as flash rate for these individual convective cells.

Carey, Lawrence↗

NASA NTRS2013

Trash to Gas: Converting Space Waste into Useful Supply Products

The cost of sending mass into space with current propulsion technology is very expensive, making every item a crucial element of the space mission. It is essential that all materials be used to their fullest potential. Items like food, packaging, clothing, paper towels, gloves, etc., normally become trash and take up space after use. These waste materials are currently either burned up upon reentry in earth's atmosphere or sent on cargo return vehicles back to earth: a very wasteful method. The purpose of this project was to utilize these materials and create useful products like water and methane gas, which is used for rocket fuel, to further supply a deep space mission. The system used was a thermal degradation reactor with the configuration of a down-draft gasifier. The reactor was loaded with approximately 100g of trash simulant and heated with two external ceramic heaters with separate temperature control in order to create pyrolysis and gasification in one zone and incineration iri a second zone simultaneously. Trash was loaded into the top half of the reactor to undergo pyrolysis while the downdraft gas experienced gasification or incineration to treat tars and maximize the production of carbon dioxide. Minor products included carbon monoxide, methane, and other hydrocarbons. The carbon dioxide produced can be sent to a Sabatier reactor to convert the gas into methane, which can be used as rocket propellant. In order to maximize the carbon dioxide and useful gases produced, and minimize the unwanted tars and leftover ashen material, multiple experiments were performed with altered parameters such as differing temperatures, flow rates, and location of inlet air flow. According to the data received from these experiments, the process will be further scaled up and optimized to ultimately create a system that reduces trash buildup while at the same time providing enough useful gases to potentially fill a methane tank that could fuel a lunar ascent vehicle or other deep space mission.

Tsoras, Alexandra↗

NASA NTRS2013

Characteristics of Mesoscale Organization in WRF Simulations of Convection during TWP-ICE

Compared to satellite-derived heating profiles, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GCM) convective heating is too deep and its stratiform upper-level heating is too weak. This deficiency highlights the need for GCMs to parameterize the mesoscale organization of convection. Cloud-resolving model simulations of convection near Darwin, Australia, in weak wind shear environments of different humidities are used to characterize mesoscale organization processes and to provide parameterization guidance. Downdraft cold pools appear to stimulate further deep convection both through their effect on eddy size and vertical velocity. Anomalously humid air surrounds updrafts, reducing the efficacy of entrainment. Recovery of cold pool properties to ambient conditions over 5-6 h proceeds differently over land and ocean. Over ocean increased surface fluxes restore the cold pool to prestorm conditions. Over land surface fluxes are suppressed in the cold pool region; temperature decreases and humidity increases, and both then remain nearly constant, while the undisturbed environment cools diurnally. The upper-troposphere stratiform rain region area lags convection by 5-6 h under humid active monsoon conditions but by only 1-2 h during drier break periods, suggesting that mesoscale organization is more readily sustained in a humid environment. Stratiform region hydrometeor mixing ratio lags convection by 0-2 h, suggesting that it is strongly influenced by detrainment from convective updrafts. Small stratiform region temperature anomalies suggest that a mesoscale updraft parameterization initialized with properties of buoyant detrained air and evolving to a balance between diabatic heating and adiabatic cooling might be a plausible approach for GCMs.

Del Genio, Anthony D.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; AMS 10th Satellite Symposium) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014; this conference) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end to end physical and dynamical basis for relating lightning rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relation to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation‐sized ice mass, etc.; however, relation specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Shultz, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Isentropic Analysis of Convective Motions

This paper analyzes the convective mass transport by sorting air parcels in terms of their equivalent potential temperature to determine an isentropic streamfunction. By averaging the vertical mass flux at a constant value of the equivalent potential temperature, one can compute an isentropic mass transport that filters out reversible oscillatory motions such as gravity waves. This novel approach emphasizes the fact that the vertical energy and entropy transports by convection are due to the combination of ascending air parcels with high energy and entropy and subsiding air parcels with lower energy and entropy. Such conditional averaging can be extended to other dynamic and thermodynamic variables such as vertical velocity, temperature, or relative humidity to obtain a comprehensive description of convective motions. It is also shown how this approach can be used to determine the mean diabatic tendencies from the three-dimensional dynamic and thermodynamic fields. A two-stream approximation that partitions the isentropic circulation into a mean updraft and a mean downdraft is also introduced. This offers a straightforward way to identify the mean properties of rising and subsiding air parcels. The results from the two-stream approximation are compared with two other definitions of the cloud mass flux. It is argued that the isentropic analysis offers a robust definition of the convective mass transport that is not tainted by the need to arbitrarily distinguish between convection and its environment, and that separates the irreversible convective overturning fromoscillations associated with gravity waves.

Lagrangian circulation↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Impact of Dry Midlevel Air on Hurricane Intensity in Idealized Simulations with No Mean Flow

This study examines the potential negative influences of dry midlevel air on the development of tropical cyclones (specifically, its role in enhancing cold downdraft activity and suppressing storm development). The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to construct two sets of idealized simulations of hurricane development in environments with different configurations of dry air. The first set of simulations begins with dry air located north of the vortex center by distances ranging from 0 to 270 km, whereas the second set of simulations begins with dry air completely surrounding the vortex, but with moist envelopes in the vortex core ranging in size from 0 to 150 km in radius. No impact of the dry air is seen for dry layers located more than 270 km north of the initial vortex center (approximately 3 times the initial radius of maximum wind). When the dry air is initially closer to the vortex center, it suppresses convective development where it entrains into the storm circulation, leading to increasingly asymmetric convection and slower storm development. The presence of dry air throughout the domain, including the vortex center, substantially slows storm development. However, the presence of a moist envelope around the vortex center eliminates the deleterious impact on storm intensity. Instead, storm size is significantly reduced. The simulations suggest that dry air slows intensification only when it is located very close to the vortex core at early times. When it does slow storm development, it does so primarily by inducing outward- moving convective asymmetries that temporarily shift latent heating radially outward away from the high-vorticity inner core.

Weather Research and Forecasting model↗

NASA NTRS2014

Physical and Dynamical Linkages between Lightning Jumps and Storm Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; this conference) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014; this conference) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end-to-end physical and dynamical basis for coupling total lightning flash rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relationship to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation-sized ice mass, etc.; however, their relationship specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗