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DOE OSTI2024

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

A scalable variational method for estimating the latent infection-rate field of an outbreak

In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary erratically day-to-day; in contrast, daily case-counts used in contemporary surveillance algorithms are corrupted by reporting errors. The technical challenge lies in estimating the latent infection-rate from case-counts. Here we devise a Bayesian method to estimate the infection-rate across multiple adjoining areal units, and then use it, via an anomaly detector, to discern a change in epidemiological dynamics. We extend an existing model for estimating the infection-rate in an areal unit by incorporating a Markov random field model, so that we may estimate infection-rates across multiple areal units, while preserving spatial correlations observed in the epidemiological dynamics. To carry out the high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem, we develop an implementation of mean-field variational inference specific to the infection model and integrate it with the random field model to incorporate correlations across counties. The method is tested on estimating the COVID-19 infection-rates across all 33 counties in New Mexico using data from the summer of 2020, and then employing them to detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave. We perform the detection using a temporal algorithm that is applied county-by-county. We also show how the infection-rate field can be used to cluster counties with similar epidemiological dynamics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reducing heat load density with asymmetric and inclined double-crystal monochromators: principles and requirements revisited

Asymmetric double-crystal monochromators (aDCMs) and inclined DCMs (iDCMs) can significantly expand the X-ray beam footprint and consequently reduce the heat load density and gradient. Based on rigorous dynamical theory calculations, the major principles and properties of aDCMs and iDCMs are presented to guide their design and development, particularly for fourth-generation synchrotrons. In addition to the large beam footprint, aDCMs have very large bandwidths (up to ∼10 eV) and angular acceptance, but the narrow angular acceptance of the second crystal requires precise control of the relative orientations and strains. Based on Fourier coupled-wave diffraction theory calculations, it is rigorously proved that the iDCM has almost the same properties as the conventional symmetric DCM, including the efficiency, angular acceptance, bandwidth, tuning energy range and sensitivity to misalignment. The exception is that, for the extremely inclined geometry that can achieve very large footprint expansion, the iDCM has (beneficially) a larger bandwidth and wider angular acceptance. Inclined diffraction has the `rho-kick effect' that can be cancelled by the second reflection of the iDCM (even with misalignment), except that inhomogeneous strains may cause non-uniform rho-kick angles. At present, fabrication/mounting-induced strains pose low risk since they can be controlled to <0.5 µrad over large areas. The only uncertain challenge is the thermally induced strains, yet it is estimated that these strains are naturally lowered by the large footprint and may be further mitigated by optimized cryogenic cooling to the 1–2 µrad level. Overall, aDCMs and iDCMs have more stringent requirements than normal DCMs, but they are feasible schemes in practice.

asymmetric monochromator↗

DOE OSTI2026

Differences in cluster and internal wake effects from mesoscale and large-eddy simulations off the US East Coast

Mesoscale simulations are increasingly used to estimate wake effects within and between large wind farms, despite limited validation for large-scale wake effects. This study evaluates the capabilities and limitations of mesoscale simulations in capturing wake-induced impacts on wind turbine power production through a direct comparison with large-domain large-eddy simulations (LESs) for three planned offshore wind farms under realistic atmospheric conditions and a range of atmospheric stabilities. We assess mesoscale performance in replicating wake characteristics behind single and multiple turbine clusters and quantify the resulting variability in mean turbine power. Results show that mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting simulations with the Fitch wind farm parameterization capture key features of the velocity deficit downstream of both single and multiple wind farms, with mean root-mean-square errors near 5 % and good agreement with stability-driven wake behavior. However, in these simulations, the mesoscale Fitch parameterization underestimates power losses from internal wake effects, particularly when turbines align with the prevailing wind direction or under stable stratification. In these conditions, individual wakes persist and dominate downstream power deficits. The coarse resolution of the mesoscale simulations limits their ability to resolve individual wind turbine wakes that drive power fluctuations within wind farms. Nonetheless, mesoscale simulations can yield accurate estimates of combined wake losses from internal and cluster effects across some wind direction sectors, where errors in wake representation may cancel each other out. These findings underscore the strengths of mesoscale simulations for capturing broader wake patterns while highlighting their limitations for modeling turbine-level power losses. Future work should explore hybrid modeling approaches to capture both long-range cluster wake propagation and localized internal wake dynamics.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Spectroscopy and dynamics of the v = 1 levels derived from the OH(D) stretching modes in the I‾∙HDO complex using CW and time-resolved, resonant two-photon infrared excitation of the cryogenically cooled ions

The vibrational energy levels of the two isotopomers adopted by the I‾∙HDO ion-molecule complex occur such that the OH(D) stretching fundamentals span its dissociation energy, thus enabling a spectroscopic investigation of the dynamics displayed by a system prepared in the vicinity of the dissociation threshold. This regime is explored using infrared photoexcitation of the mass-selected complexes cooled in a cryogenic radiofrequency (Paul) ion trap. Survey spectra are obtained at modest resolution using two-color, IR-IR photodissociation with nanosecond lasers to establish the level structure and unimolecular decay dynamics of the v = 1 and 2 levels of the bound OH(D) oscillator. The v = 1 levels are prepared by fixed frequency excitation in the trap and the absorption spectra arising from this excited state are probed by photofragmentation of the complex with a second pulsed IR laser after a variable delay time (0 to 20 ms). The transitions to levels above the dissociation threshold for I‾ + HDO formation are observed to be sharp (~5 cm -1 FWHM). At low pressure, the bound OD (v = 1) population relaxes very slowly (~3 ms), consistent with resonant fluorescence in the IR. The collisional quenching rate constants of this level by the He buffer gas were estimated to be on the order 3 x 10 -12 cm 3 /s based on a crude Stern-Volmer analysis. Here, the rotational fine structure and linewidths (≲0.01 cm -1 FWHM) arising from transitions of the non-bonded OH stretch fundamental of the OD-bound isotopomer that lies just above the dissociation energy are determined using single photon photodissociation by excitation of the 10 K ions with a single-frequency, CW IR laser in the ion trap.

Cryogenic ion infrared spectroscopy↗

DOE OSTI2024

In-vivo neuronal dysfunction by Aβ and tau overlaps with brain-wide inflammatory mechanisms in Alzheimer’s disease

The molecular mechanisms underlying neuronal dysfunction in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) remain uncharacterized. Here, we identify genes, molecular pathways and cellular components associated with whole-brain dysregulation caused by amyloid-beta (Aβ) and tau deposits in the living human brain. We obtained in-vivo resting-state functional MRI (rs-fMRI), Aβ- and tau-PET for 47 cognitively unimpaired and 16 AD participants from the Translational Biomarkers in Aging and Dementia cohort. Adverse neuronal activity impacts by Aβ and tau were quantified with personalized dynamical models by fitting pathology-mediated computational signals to the participant’s real rs-fMRIs. Then, we detected robust brain-wide associations between the spatial profiles of Aβ-tau impacts and gene expression in the neurotypical transcriptome (Allen Human Brain Atlas). Within the obtained distinctive signature of in-vivo neuronal dysfunction, several genes have prominent roles in microglial activation and in interactions with Aβ and tau. Moreover, cellular vulnerability estimations revealed strong association of microglial expression patterns with Aβ and tau’s synergistic impact on neuronal activity (q < 0.001). These results further support the central role of the immune system and neuroinflammatory pathways in AD pathogenesis. Neuronal dysregulation by AD pathologies also associated with neurotypical synaptic and developmental processes. In addition, we identified drug candidates from the vast LINCS library to halt or reduce the observed Aβ-tau effects on neuronal activity. Top-ranked pharmacological interventions target inflammatory, cancer and cardiovascular pathways, including specific medications undergoing clinical evaluation in AD. Our findings, based on the examination of molecular-pathological-functional interactions in humans, may accelerate the process of bringing effective therapies into clinical practice.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Crop models: integrating systems from the molecular to global for agricultural productivity and sustainability

Mathematical models that simulate crop growth in response to environmental conditions and management practices are essential tools for exploring agriculture-based strategies to address food security and environmental sustainability challenges. Early applications of crop models focused on supporting farmers in making management decisions. Applications have since expanded to estimating future impacts on local and global food production from changing climates. Emerging applications of crop models aim to leverage how these models integrate plant processes across biological scales to identify engineering or breeding strategies that account for environmentally-responsive dynamics at field scales and for exploring solutions to improve sustainability. In this review, we highlight recent studies across these four broad application areas and highlight potential future directions for the crop modeling field.

Piao, Ximin [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign↗

DOE OSTI2025

Moment-based adaptive time integration for thermal radiation transport

Here, in this paper we develop a framework for moment-based adaptive time integration of deterministic multifrequency thermal radiation transpot (TRT). We generalize our recent semi-implicit-explicit (IMEX) integration framework for gray TRT to multifrequency TRT, and also introduce a semi-implicit variation that facilitates higher-order integration of TRT, where each stage is implicit in all components except opacities. To appeal to the broad literature on adaptivity with Runge–Kutta methods, we derive new embedded methods for four asymptotic preserving IMEX Runge–Kutta schemes we have found to be robust in our previous work on TRT and radiation hydrodynamics. We then use a moment-based high-order-low-order representation of the transport equations. Due to the high dimensionality, memory is always a concern in simulating TRT. We form error estimates and adaptivity in time purely based on temperature and radiation energy, for a trivial overhead in computational cost and memory usage compared with the base second order integrators. We then test the adaptivity in time on the tophat and Larsen problem, demonstrating the ability of the adaptive algorithm to naturally vary the timestep across 4–5 orders of magnitude, ranging from the dynamical timescales of the streaming regime to the thick diffusion limit.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Observations of Subduction, Downward Heat Flux and Dense Filament Collapse in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Submesoscale processes are important contributors to the global heat budget and generally support upward heat transport through restratification. However, in salinity‐stratified regions, such as the northern Gulf of Mexico with its influx of freshwater from the Mississippi‐Atchafalaya river system, temperature can act like a passive tracer and submesoscale processes can contribute to downward heat transport. Oceanic heat content is a factor in many environmental risks the region faces, for example, hurricane intensification, and marine heatwaves. During the 2022 field campaign of the Submesoscales Under Near‐Resonant Inertial Shear Experiment, a sampling plan was developed to study such submesoscale processes in high resolution. Over 31 hr, four assets (two research ships and two remotely controlled boats) drove in parallel across a dense filament, capturing its evolution in time and space. The observations show that surface waters, warmed by daytime solar radiation, were subducted and that the associated overturning circulation transported heat below the surface layer where it was later irreversibly mixed away. The estimated downward heat flux was as strong as the concurrent net air‐sea heat flux into the ocean. The filament was then observed to rapidly collapse which we attribute to boundary layer turbulence and the breakdown of geostrophic balance. The collapsing fronts display behaviors indicative of gravity currents. These observations highlight how in salinity‐stratified regions, frontal dynamics can be associated with downward heat flux and how the submesoscale can play an important role in the oceanic heat budget.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Single-Phase to Split-Phase Inverters with Advanced Grid Support Functions for Grid-Interactive Applications

This work presents a cost-effective single-phase to split-phase inverter with a reduced switch count, achieving grid interactive performance while maintaining operational efficiency. The proposed system integrates an Andronov-Hopf oscillator based secondary controller, which inherently embeds a nonlinear resistive droop architecture, ensuring rapid dynamic response. A Lyapunov energy function-based primary control enhances transient stability and regulation, while an internal model-based point of common coupling voltage estimation enables cost optimization without additional sensors. Equipped with advanced grid support functionalities, the inverter facilitates seamless distribution system operation with enhanced robustness. The effectiveness of the proposed architecture and control strategy is validated through MATLAB/Simulink and PLECS simulations, demonstrating its feasibility for high-performance grid-supportive applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Power-Maximizing Region 2 Controllers for Wind and Marine Turbines

Wind and marine energy are rapidly growing and complementary technologies that share some techniques for simplified modeling and control, particularly in below-rated flow speeds. A turbine operator has several choices of controller for maximizing power in Region 2. The simple and ubiquitous KΩ 2 control law is often effective but limited in its flexibility. Alternative controllers use reference tracking to split the control objectives into a low-bandwidth optimal tip-speed ratio tracking loop to maximize steady-state power and a higher-bandwidth proportional-integral control loop to reject inflow turbulence. Several options exist for identifying the slowly varying optimal set point during operation, based on estimating the inflow velocity or filtering the power or torque signals. This study compares the trade-offs between performance and other design priorities for a few choices of reference-tracking controller in the literature for reference wind and marine turbines. Analysis is performed in the frequency domain using the linearization of each controller, and the impact of turbulent disturbances on the closed-loop system is described. The controllers are simulated in OpenFAST to analyze their performance with higher-order nonlinear turbine dynamics.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy impacts of nationwide window upgrades in commercial buildings

This report presents comprehensive estimates of the energy impacts of nationwide commercial building window upgrades in the United States, using a conservative approach. Windows play a substantial role in determining building energy use and occupant experience. Estimates point to commercial building windows impacting loads that represent more than 6 quads (approximately 6%) of annual primary energy use in the U.S. (Harris, 2022). Beyond heating and cooling loads, windows also have effects on lighting and occupant comfort. The fastest route to improving the energy efficiency of windows in U.S. buildings is upgrading or replacing windows in existing buildings. This is due to poor performance of windows in older existing buildings compared to most new construction, low levels of window replacement, and long window service life compared to energy-using building components. Nationwide window upgrades were considered using the following technologies: • Secondary glazing systems • Double pane (clear and tinted) • Triple pane (clear and tinted) • Electrochromic glazing Nationwide upgrades provide on the order of 4%–6% site energy savings in typical buildings, or up to 26% in buildings with the highest savings potential. Electrochromic windows, with their ability to adapt dynamically to environmental conditions, can provide additional benefits, ranging from median savings of 7.2% in buildings with window to wall ratio (WWR) greater than 10% and up to 28% for some buildings. Savings increase substantially for buildings with higher WWR. This study’s approach focused on isolating the direct energy benefits from improvement in window performance, and does not take into account the following additional benefits from window retrofits, which are likely to be substantial: • Managing peak demand and enabling HVAC equipment downsizing. • Energy savings from customizing upgrades to building type and climate. • Energy savings and comfort improvements resulting from post-retrofit reductions in air leakage. • Non-energy benefits, such as occupant comfort and resilience during extreme weather.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Solving reaction dynamics with quantum computing algorithms

The description of quantum many-body dynamics is extremely challenging on classical computers, as it can involve many degrees of freedom. However, the time evolution of quantum states is a natural application for quantum computers that are designed to efficiently perform unitary transformations. Here, in this paper, we study quantum algorithms for response functions, relevant for describing different reactions governed by linear response. We focus on nuclear-physics applications and consider a qubit-efficient mapping on the lattice, which can efficiently represent the large volumes required for realistic scattering simulations. For the case of a contact interaction, we develop an algorithm for time evolution based on the Trotter approximation that scales logarithmically with the lattice size and is combined with quantum phase estimation. We eventually focus on the nuclear two-body system and a typical response function relevant for electron scattering as an example. We also investigate ground-state preparation and examine the total circuit depth required for a realistic calculation and the hardware noise level required to interpret the signal.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Can Neutron Star Tidal Effects Obscure Deviations from General Relativity?

Abstract One of the main goals of gravitational-wave astrophysics is to study gravity in the strong-field regime and constrain deviations from general relativity (GR). Any such deviation affects not only binary dynamics and gravitational-wave emission but also the structure and tidal properties of compact objects. In the case of neutron stars, masses, radii, and tidal deformabilities can all differ significantly between different theories of gravity. Currently, the measurement uncertainties in neutron star radii and tidal deformabilities are quite large. However, much less is known about how the large uncertainty in the nuclear equation of state (EOS) might affect tests of GR using binary neutron star mergers. Conversely, using the wrong theory of gravity might lead to incorrect constraints on the nuclear EOS. Here, we study this problem within scalar–tensor (ST) theory. We apply the recently derived ℓ = 2 tidal Love numbers in this theory to parameter estimation of GW170817. Correspondingly, we test if physics beyond GR could bias measurements of the nuclear EOS and neutron star radii. We find that parameter inference for both the GR and ST cases returns consistent component masses and tidal deformabilities. The radius and the EOS posteriors, however, differ between the two theories, but neither is excluded by current observational limits. This indicates that measurements of the nuclear EOS may be biased and that deviations from GR could go undetected when analyzing current binary neutron star mergers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Sampling-Based Bi-Fidelity Stochastic Trust Region Method for Stochastic Derivative-Free Optimization

Bi-fidelity stochastic optimization has gained increasing attention as an efficient approach to reduce computational costs by leveraging a low-fidelity (LF) model to optimize an expensive high-fidelity (HF) objective. In this paper, we propose ASTRO-BFDF, an adaptive sampling trust-region method specifically designed for unconstrained bi-fidelity stochastic derivative-free optimization problems. In ASTRO-BFDF, the LF function serves two purposes: (i) to identify better iterates for the HF function when the optimization process indicates a high correlation between them and (ii) to reduce the variance of the HF function estimates using bi-fidelity Monte Carlo (BFMC). The algorithm dynamically determines sample sizes while adaptively choosing between crude Monte Carlo and BFMC to balance the trade-off between optimization and sampling errors. We prove that the iterates generated by ASTRO-BFDF converge to a first-order stationary point almost surely. Additionally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm through numerical experiments on synthetic benchmarks and simulation optimization problems involving discrete event systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Identified charged hadron production in Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 54.4 GeV with the STAR detector

Here, we present results on the production of 𝜋±, 𝐾±, 𝑝, and $\bar{𝑝}$ in Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{𝑠_{N⁢N}}$ = 54.4~GeV using the STAR detector at RHIC, at mid-rapidity (|𝑦|< 0.1). Invariant yields of these particles as a function of transverse momentum are shown. We determine bulk properties such as integrated particle yields (𝑑 ⁢𝑁 /𝑑 ⁢𝑦 ), mean transverse momentum (⟨𝑝 𝑇 ⟩), particle ratios, which provide insight into the particle production mechanisms. Additionally, the kinetic freeze-out parameters (𝑇 kin and ⟨𝛽 𝑇 ⟩), which provide information about the dynamics of the system at the time of freeze-out, are obtained. The Bjorken energy density (𝜖 𝐵⁢𝐽 ), which gives an estimate of the energy density in the central rapidity region of the collision zone at the formation time 𝜏, is calculated and presented as a function of multiplicity for various energies. The results are compared with those from the models such as A Multi-Phase Transport (AMPT) and Heavy Ion Jet INteraction Generator (HIJING) for further insights.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

SPRUCE Root Production Assessed with Manual Minirhizotrons Resolved to Plant Functional Type, 2015-2021

This dataset contains raw root length and diameter for individual roots and estimated root population production measurements from the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experimental site within the Marcell Experimental Forest in northern Minnesota, USA. Measurements started at the beginning of whole ecosystem warming manipulations in 2015 through 2021 (2015-05-26 to 2021-09-01). Root morphology and estimated production were quantified throughout the peat profile with manual minirhizotrons deployed within SPRUCE plots. Images were processed using commercial software to quantify the length and diameter of individual roots. Roots were visually assigned to a plant functional type (PFT) of either (ericaceous) shrub, herb (sedges and Maianthemum trifolium), or tree (Larix laricina, Picea mariana) based on expert opinion. The biomass of individual roots was estimated using PFT-specific allometric equations (Iversen et al., 2018). Production per day was estimated as the length of new roots produced between imaging sessions, divided by the number of days between imaging sessions. These values were placed on a m2 aboveground area basis and scaled to a standard depth of 1m (roots are not evenly distributed with depth, do not interpret value as being on a m3 basis). Maximum and average (weighted by production length) depth of each PFT were also estimated within each minirhizotron tube. Annual production was interpolated as the average of four methods to scale these data (see Weber et al, 2026). Standing crop of roots was estimated for each tube as the maximum visible amount (both length and mass) of roots of that PFT for that year. These data expand the ability of researchers to accurately estimate the belowground dynamics of peatland vegetation, as well as the role that fine roots may play in impacting the fluxes of carbon within peatlands. This dataset contains three data files in comma-separate values (*.csv) format. This dataset contains one data file in comma-separate values (.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: three data dictionaries and a file-level metadata file in comma-separate values (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Life Cycle Analysis of Growing Canola for Biofuel Production in the United States

This study quantifies and compares the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of renewable diesel (RD), sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and biodiesel (BD) produced from two U.S. canola production systems: 1) emerging intermediate winter canola, typically grown in double- or relay-cropping systems between the growing seasons of main crops, and 2) main canola, mostly spring canola but also including winter canola, which are grown as primary crops occupying the field for a full growing season. Using the Research and Development version of the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (R&D GREET) model and the most up-to-date life cycle inventory data─field trial data for intermediate winter canola (>37,000 acres) and recent national survey data for spring canola─this life cycle analysis (LCA) estimates the direct emissions from canola cultivation and harvest, the conversion of canola into fuels, fuel transportation, and combustion. In addition, we account for market-mediated emissions associated with a scenario of 0.5 billion gallons per year of spring canola-based biofuels, including induced land use change (ILUC), induced other crop (nonfeedstock) production changes, and induced livestock production changes. For intermediate winter canola, these market-mediated effects were not modeled, as ILUC is expected to be negligible due to its integration into existing rotations, and data are currently insufficient to reliably quantify other market-mediated changes. The estimated life cycle direct emissions of RD/SAF derived from intermediate winter canola and main spring canola are about 32 and 33 g of CO2-equivalent per megajoule of fuel (g CO 2 e/MJ), respectively. Corresponding emissions for BD from intermediate winter canola and main spring canola are about 30 and 31 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. Farming is the dominant emissions source for both canola systems, with intermediate winter canola and main spring canola emitting about 19 and 20 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. ILUC and other induced changes increase emissions of main spring canola-derived RD/SAF and BD by about 18 and 17 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. These results indicate that the GHG emissions of biofuels produced from the two canola systems may differ substantially due to the different land use dynamics of the systems.

biodiesel↗