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At least 199 records · Page 11

Making Heliophysics Research More Open and Accessible at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)

The Space Weather and Heliophysics modeling community seeks to improve our understanding of space weather events and their impact on human activities. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center’s (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) mission is to support the community by providing a convenient collaborative platform that brings together space weather models, model simulation data, curated datasets of solar events, and associated value-added services. Using these services, researchers and other end-users may exercise, evaluate, and intercompare contributed models, triage designated R2O models, as well as collaborate on a continuously updated archive of model run results. This presentation reports on CCMC’s ongoing efforts in making Heliophysics models and data more accessible, open, and reproducible. We will also explore interoperability within the ecosystem of CCMC services and how this ecosystem interoperates with external partner services and data streams.

space weather↗

Using High Spatial Resolution Satellite Imagery to Map Forest Burn Severity Across Spatial Scales in a Pine Barrens Ecosystem

As a primary disturbance agent, fire significantly influences local processes and services of forest ecosystems. Although a variety of remote sensing based approaches have been developed and applied to Landsat mission imagery to infer burn severity at 30 m spatial resolution, forest burn severity have still been seldom assessed at fine spatial scales (less than or equal to 5 m) from very-high-resolution (VHR) data. We assessed a 432 ha forest fire that occurred in April 2012 on Long Island, New York, within the Pine Barrens region, a unique but imperiled fire-dependent ecosystem in the northeastern United States. The mapping of forest burn severity was explored here at fine spatial scales, for the first time using remotely sensed spectral indices and a set of Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) fraction images from bi-temporal - pre- and post-fire event - WorldView-2 (WV-2) imagery at 2 m spatial resolution. We first evaluated our approach using 1 m by 1 m validation points at the sub-crown scale per severity class (i.e. unburned, low, moderate, and high severity) from the post-fire 0.10 m color aerial ortho-photos; then, we validated the burn severity mapping of geo-referenced dominant tree crowns (crown scale) and 15 m by 15 m fixed-area plots (inter-crown scale) with the post-fire 0.10 m aerial ortho-photos and measured crown information of twenty forest inventory plots. Our approach can accurately assess forest burn severity at the sub-crown (overall accuracy is 84% with a Kappa value of 0.77), crown (overall accuracy is 82% with a Kappa value of 0.76), and inter-crown scales (89% of the variation in estimated burn severity ratings (i.e. Geo-Composite Burn Index (CBI)). This work highlights that forest burn severity mapping from VHR data can capture heterogeneous fire patterns at fine spatial scales over the large spatial extents. This is important since most ecological processes associated with fire effects vary at the less than 30 m scale and VHR approaches could significantly advance our ability to characterize fire effects on forest ecosystems.

Meng, Ran↗

Cloud-Computing and Machine Learning in Support of Country-Level Land Cover and Ecosystem Extent Mapping in Liberia and Gabon

Liberia and Gabon joined the Gaborone Declaration for Sustainability in Africa (GDSA), established in 2012, with the goal of incorporating the value of nature intonational decision making by estimating the multiple services obtained from ecosystems using the natural capital accounting framework. In this study, we produced 30-m resolution 10 classes land cover maps for the 2015 epoch for Liberia and Gabon using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud platform to support the ongoing natural capital accounting efforts in these nations. We pro-pose an integrated method of pixel-based classification using Landsat 8 data, the Random Forest(RF) classifier and ancillary data to produce high quality land cover products to fit abroad range of applications, including natural capital accounting. Our approach focuses on a pre-classification filtering (Masking Phase) based on spectral signature and ancillary data to reduce the number of pixels prone to be misclassified; therefore, increasing the quality of the final product. The proposed approach yields an overall accuracy of 83% and 81% for Liberia and Gabon, respectively, out performing prior land cover products for these countries in both thematic content and accuracy. Our approach, while relatively simple and highly replicable, was able to produce high quality land cover products to fill an observational gap in up to date land cover data at national scale for Liberia and Gabon.

Celio de Sousa↗

Identifying and Forecasting Potential Biophysical Risk Areas within a Tropical Mangrove Ecosystem Using Multi-Sensor Data

Mangroves are one of the most productive ecosystems known for provisioning of various ecosystem goods and services. They help in sequestering large amounts of carbon, protecting coastline against erosion, and reducing impacts of natural disasters such as hurricanes. Bhitarkanika Wildlife Sanctuary in Odisha harbors the second largest mangrove ecosystem in India. This study used Terra, Landsat and Sentinel-1 satellite data for spatio-temporal monitoring of mangrove forest within Bhitarkanika Wildlife Sanctuary between 2000 and 2016. Three biophysical parameters were used to assess mangrove ecosystem health: leaf chlorophyll (CHL), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). A long-term analysis of meteorological data such as precipitation and temperature was performed to determine an association between these parameters and mangrove biophysical characteristics. The correlation between meteorological parameters and mangrove biophysical characteristics enabled forecasting of mangrove health and productivity for year 2050 by incorporating IPCC projected climate data. A historical analysis of land cover maps was also performed using Landsat 5 and 8 data to determine changes in mangrove area estimates in years 1995, 2004 and 2017. There was a decrease in dense mangrove extent with an increase in open mangroves and agricultural area. Despite conservation efforts, the current extent of dense mangrove is projected to decrease up to 10% by the year 2050. All three biophysical characteristics including GPP, LAI and CHL, are projected to experience a net decrease of 7.7%, 20.83% and 25.96% respectively by 2050 compared to the mean annual value in 2016. This study will help the Forest Department, Government of Odisha in managing and taking appropriate decisions for conserving and sustaining the remaining mangrove forest under the changing climate and developmental activities.

Shanti Shrestha↗

Missing the Reef for the Corals: Unexpected Trends Between Coral Reef Condition and the Environment at the Ecosystem Scale

It is incontrovertible that many coral reefs are in various stages of decline and may be unable to withstand the effects of global climate change, jeopardizing vital ecosystem goods and services to hundreds of millions of people around the world. An estimated 50% of the world's corals have already been lost, and those remaining may be lost by 2030 under the “business as usual” CO2 emissions scenario. However, the foundation of these predictions is a surprisingly sparse dataset, wherein ~0.01–0.1% of the world's reef area has been quantitatively surveyed. Further, the available data comprise observations at the 1–10 m scale, which are not evenly spaced across reefs, but often clustered in areas representing focused survey effort. This impedes modeling and predicting the impact of a changing environment at the ecosystem scale. Here we highlight deficiencies in our current understanding of the relationship between coral reefs and their environments. Specifically, we conduct a meta-analysis using estimates of coral cover from a variety of local surveys, quantitatively relating reef condition to a suite of biogeophysical forcing parameters. We find that readily available public data for coral cover exhibit unexpected trends (e.g., a positive correlation between coral cover and multi-year cumulative thermal stress), contrary to prevailing scientific expectations. We illustrate a significant gap in our current understanding, and thereby prediction, of coral reefs at the ecosystem scale that can only be remedied with uniform, high-density data across vast coral reef regions, such as that from remote sensing.

Eric J Hochberg↗

Space Communications Responsive to Events Across Missions (SCREAM): An Investigation of Network Solutions for Transient Science Space Systems

Space Communications Responsive to Events Across Missions (SCREAM): An Investigation of Network Solutions for Transient Science Space Systems The National Academies have prioritized the pursuit of new scientific discoveries using diverse and temporally coordinated measurements from multiple ground and space-based observatories. Networked communications can enable such measurements by connecting individual observatories and allowing them to operate as a cohesive and purposefully designed system. Timely data flows across terrestrial and space communications networks are required to observe transient scientific events and processes. Currently, communications to space-based observatories experience large latencies due to manual service reservation and scheduling procedures, intermittent signal coverage, and network capacity constraints. If space communications network latencies could be reduced, new discoveries about dynamic scientific processes could be realized. However, science mission and network planners lack a systematic framework for defining, quantifying and evaluating timely space data flow implementation options for transient scientific observation scenarios involving multiple ground and space-based observatories. This dissertation presents a model-based systems engineering approach to investigate and develop network solutions to meet the needs of transient science space systems. First, a systematic investigation of the current transient science operations of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) space data network and the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory resulted in a formal architectural model for transient science space systems. Two methods individual missions may use to achieve timely network services were defined, quantitatively modeled, and experimentally compared. Next, the architectural model was extended to describe two alternative ways to achieve timely and autonomous space data flows to multiple space-based observatories within the context of a purposefully designed transient science observation scenario. A quantitative multipoint space data flow modeling method based in queueing theory was defined. General system suitability metrics for timeliness, throughput, and capacity were specified to support the evaluation of alternative network data flow implementations. A hypothetical design study was performed to demonstrate the multipoint data flow modeling method and to evaluate alternative data flow implementations using TDRS. The merits of a proposed future TDRS broadcast service to implement multipoint data flows were quantified and compared to expected outcomes using the as-built TDRS network. Then, the architectural model was extended to incorporate commercial network service providers. Quantitative models for Globalstar and Iridium short messaging data services were developed based on publicly available sources. Financial cost was added to the set of system suitability metrics. The hypothetical design study was extended to compare the relative suitability of the as-built TDRS network with the commercial Globalstar and Iridium networks. Finally, results from this research are being applied by NASA missions and network planners. In 2020, Swift implemented the first automated command pipeline, increasing its expected gravitational wave follow-up detection rate by greater than 400%. Current NASA technology initiatives informed by this research will enable future space-based observatories to become interoperable sensing devices connected by a diverse ecosystem of network service providers.

Christopher J. Roberts↗

Assessing Woody Vegetation Trends in Sahelian Drylands Using MODIS Based Seasonal Metrics

Woody plants play a major role for the resilience of drylands and in peoples' livelihoods. However, due to their scattered distribution, quantifying and monitoring woody cover over space and time is challenging. We develop a phenology driven model and train/validate MODIS (MCD43A4, 500m) derived metrics with 178 ground observations from Niger, Senegal and Mali to estimate woody cover trends from 2000 to 2014 over the entire Sahel. The annual woody cover estimation at 500 m scale is fairly accurate with an RMSE of 4.3 (woody cover %) and r(exp 2) = 0.74. Over the 15 year period we observed an average increase of 1.7 (+/- 5.0) woody cover (%) with large spatial differences: No clear change can be observed in densely populated areas (0.2 +/- 4.2), whereas a positive change is seen in sparsely populated areas (2.1 +/- 5.2). Woody cover is generally stable in cropland areas (0.9 +/- 4.6), reflecting the protective management of parkland trees by the farmers. Positive changes are observed in savannas (2.5 +/- 5.4) and woodland areas (3.9 +/- 7.3). The major pattern of woody cover change reveals strong increases in the sparsely populated Sahel zones of eastern Senegal, western Mali and central Chad, but a decreasing trend is observed in the densely populated western parts of Senegal, northern Nigeria, Sudan and southwestern Niger. This decrease is often local and limited to woodlands, being an indication of ongoing expansion of cultivated areas and selective logging.We show that an overall positive trend is found in areas of low anthropogenic pressure demonstrating the potential of these ecosystems to provide services such as carbon storage, if not over-utilized. Taken together, our results provide an unprecedented synthesis of woody cover dynamics in theSahel, and point to land use and human population density as important drivers, however only partially and locally offsetting a general post-drought increase.

Brandt, Martin↗

Large-Scale High-Resolution Coastal Mangrove Forests Mapping Across West Africa With Machine Learning Ensemble and Satellite Big Data

Coastal mangrove forests provide important ecosystem goods and services, including carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and hazard mitigation. However, they are being destroyed at an alarming rate by human activities. To characterize mangrove forest changes, evaluate their impacts, and support relevant protection and restoration decision making, accurate and up-to-date mangrove extent mapping at large spatial scales is essential. Available large-scale mangrove extent data products use a single machine learning method commonly with 30 m Landsat imagery, and significant inconsistencies remain among these data products. With huge amounts of satellite data involved and the heterogeneity of land surface characteristics across large geographic areas, finding the most suitable method for large-scale high-resolution mangrove mapping is a challenge. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of a machine learning ensemble for mangrove forest mapping at 20 m spatial resolution across West Africa using Sentinel-2 (optical) and Sentinel-1 (radar) imagery. The machine learning ensemble integrates three commonly used machine learning methods in land cover and land use mapping, including Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and Neural Network (NN). The cloud-based big geospatial data processing platform Google Earth Engine (GEE) was used for pre-processing Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-1 data. Extensive validation has demonstrated that the machine learning ensemble can generate mangrove extent maps at high accuracies for all study regions in West Africa (92%–99% Producer’s Accuracy, 98%–100% User’s Accuracy, 95%–99% Overall Accuracy). This is the first-time that mangrove extent has been mapped at a 20 m spatial resolution across West Africa. The machine learning ensemble has the potential to be applied to other regions of the world and is therefore capable of producing high-resolution mangrove extent maps at global scales periodically.

coastal environment↗

NASA's Collaborative Digital Departure Rerouting (CDDR) Technology Reduces Flight Delays and Emissions

NASA’s Digital Information Platform is creating a digital information ecosystem to exchange services and provide access to airspace information to enable fuel efficient operations. This system allows providers to make their services more accessible and consumers to access information and services they need to optimize their operations. In this video we will focus on the Collaborative Digital Departure Rerouting service, which provides airlines with routing options similar to how drivers navigate using cellphone apps.

Keenan Roach↗

Assessing the cumulative effects of nearshore habitat restoration actions for multiple populations of juvenile salmon in Whidbey Basin, Washington: foundation and approach for synthesis and evaluation

Ecosystem restoration is a common tool for re-establishing ecosystem processes, structures, and functions to improve biodiversity and services in coastal and estuarine ecosystems. In the Salish Sea, salmon habitats have been fragmented, reduced in size, and diminished in quality, and the ecosystem processes that form and sustain these habitats have been degraded and disrupted as well. This loss is especially prevalent in estuaries, where up to 90% of former salmon habitat has been lost or compromised. Salmon species are integral to the identities and cultures of people in the Pacific Northwest, yet salmon abundances remain at historic lows, especially in urbanized areas. Recent investments in restoration are creating rearing habitat and repairing lost ecosystem function. However, restoration efforts in this region have largely proceeded at the site scale, with less attention to big-picture thinking regarding how restoration will effectively recover degraded or lost habitats for target species. As a result, no landscape-scale evaluation program exists, and the cumulative benefits of multiple interventions are unknown. We describe innovative methods for science synthesis related to the evaluation of cumulative effects of ecosystem restoration for Pacific salmon, using years of existing, but disparate data. Building from previous work on cumulative effects evaluation and incorporating a hierarchy of hypotheses approach, we propose using causal inference across numerous hypotheses in a framework to assess the cumulative benefits to Pacific salmon from multiple estuarine restoration projects. We present the framework as a method that can be used to address many complex questions and provide examples from the Salish Sea where the approach is being implemented. The framework draws on science synthesis from numerous fields and uses a hierarchy of hypotheses, causal analysis at multiple scales, and a new hierarchy of synthesis for assessing multiple lines of evidence documenting restoration effects on Pacific salmon. We propose causal inference to synthesize dissimilar data streams, in our case, to identify various manifestations of cumulative effects of restoration and benefits to salmon, and to further inform restoration and recovery planning. A unifying framework would allow for the detection of thresholds at which restoration provides measurable improvement and would greatly advance understanding of the effects of restoration on ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

PSInet: a new global water potential network

Abstract Given the pressing challenges posed by climate change, it is crucial to develop a deeper understanding of the impacts of escalating drought and heat stress on terrestrial ecosystems and the vital services they offer. Soil and plant water potential play a pivotal role in governing the dynamics of water within ecosystems and exert direct control over plant function and mortality risk during periods of ecological stress. However, existing observations of water potential suffer from significant limitations, including their sporadic and discontinuous nature, inconsistent representation of relevant spatio-temporal scales and numerous methodological challenges. These limitations hinder the comprehensive and synthetic research needed to enhance our conceptual understanding and predictive models of plant function and survival under limited moisture availability. In this article, we present PSInet (PSI—for the Greek letter Ψ used to denote water potential), a novel collaborative network of researchers and data, designed to bridge the current critical information gap in water potential data. The primary objectives of PSInet are as follows. (i) Establishing the first openly accessible global database for time series of plant and soil water potential measurements, while providing important linkages with other relevant observation networks. (ii) Fostering an inclusive and diverse collaborative environment for all scientists studying water potential in various stages of their careers. (iii) Standardizing methodologies, processing and interpretation of water potential data through the engagement of a global community of scientists, facilitated by the dissemination of standardized protocols, best practices and early career training opportunities. (iv) Facilitating the use of the PSInet database for synthesizing knowledge and addressing prominent gaps in our understanding of plants’ physiological responses to various environmental stressors. The PSInet initiative is integral to meeting the fundamental research challenge of discerning which plant species will thrive and which will be vulnerable in a world undergoing rapid warming and increasing aridification.

Forestry↗

Autonomous Electrochemistry Platform with Real-Time Normality Testing of Voltammetry Measurements Using ML

Electrochemistry workflows utilize various instruments and computing systems to execute workflows consisting of electrocatalyst synthesis, testing and evaluation tasks. The heterogeneity of the software and hardware of these ecosystems makes it challenging to orchestrate a complete workflow from production to characterization by automating its tasks. We propose an autonomous electrochemistry computing platform for a multi-site ecosystem that provides the services for remote experiment steering, real-time measurement transfer, and AI/ML-driven analytics. We describe the integration of a mobile robot and synthesis workstation into the ecosystem by developing custom hub-networks and software modules to support remote operations over the ecosystem’s wireless and wired networks. We describe a workflow task for generating I-V voltammetry measurements using a potentiostat, and a machine learning framework to ensure their normality by detecting abnormal conditions such as disconnected electrodes. We study a number of machine learning methods for the underlying detection problem, including smooth, non-smooth, structural and statistical methods, and their fusers. We present experimental results to illustrate the effectiveness of this platform, and also validate the proposed ML method by deriving its rigorous generalization equations.

Alnajjar, Anees↗

DIP - Digital Information Platform

Brief updates of Digital Information Platform (DIP) plans for platform-enabled sustainable aviation services. DIP will provide the capability to integrate key flight information from multiple sources and make it easier to access data critical to developing services using advanced techniques such as machine learning. NASA will share ML-based microservices on the platform for industry to use as reference implementations. The platform will support an ecosystem to share reusable services and promote innovation for digital information.

DIP update↗

Holistic and Pragmatic Standards Processes Enable Interdisciplinary Science

Open, interdisciplinary science inevitably relies heavily on standards. Standards are those often unseen agreements that we take for granted when systems and processes are working fine. Yet standards work is perpetual, laborious, and sometimes contentious, especially for standards to work across diverse disciplines. Standards development, maintenance, and implementation is a complex, ongoing socio-technical process. NASA has developed a progressively open science policy and strategy that calls for the establishment of a data standards process reaching across the five diverse divisions of the Science Mission Directorate. This is a delicate exercise. We, therefore, seek to apply a holistic yet pragmatic approach to developing and maintaining a standards process. We adopt an ecological philosophy that focuses on the interactions within the data ecosystem and how standards facilitate those interactions. We couple high-level analysis with on the ground experimentation. We began by 1) mapping information ecosystem components (e.g. data centers, missions, services, protocols, users), 2)establishing how the components interact (e.g. sharing (meta)data, funding, personnel exchange), and 3) modelling system dynamics (e.g. creation of products from multiple data centers, redundant processes, shared services). The goal is to apply understanding of the ecosystem to real world applications (e.g. planning a new mission, implementing new policy requirements, improving process efficiency, etc.). We have also conducted studies of historical standardization efforts, documenting lessons learned and cautionary tales. We then contrast this more abstract work with real examples. We reviewed and assessed multiple existing standards development processes both within and external to NASA. We now work to implement an initial test process which can be further optimized. We seek to define a consistent approach for assigning persistent identifiers for research objects, especially for the purposes of citation. The experience from this relatively ‘simple’ test case adds a pragmatic perspective on how researchers and engineers actually work. This presentation will review the details of this methodology, our initial findings, and how they might apply to other interdisciplinary standardization efforts.

Mark A Parsons↗

Eddy Covariance Theory: A Review

Eddy covariance (EC), the gold standard for measuring ecosystem scale gas and heat exchanges, has transformed our understanding of the breathing of the biosphere, and thus global change biology. Despite numerous methodological improvements and insights gained from the technique, the community faces persistent challenges that have been present since the first EC measurements. Here, we review the theoretical developments underpinning EC. We present theoretical developments in four important areas that have relevance to EC measurements of the net ecosystem exchanges (NEE) of gases and heat from a single tower: (i) measuring the total vertical flux density, (ii) flux attenuation, (iii) coordinate rotations, and (iv) energy balance closure. Persistent problems with EC measurements, such as the inability to close the energy budget, led us to identify two priorities for revisiting the theory underlying: (i) sensible heat flux calculations, and (ii) constraining the mean vertical wind velocity. We present a framework for improved calculation of sensible heat flux derived from first principles of fluid mechanics and thermodynamics that considers coupled heat and mass transfer so that conservation of both is obeyed. These refinements are motivated by the need for unbiased measurements of energy and mass transfer between the land surface and atmosphere for ecosystem research and to validate satellite observations and land surface models.

ecosystem fluxes↗

A multi-model assessment of global freshwater temperature and thermoelectric power supply under climate change

Water temperature is a key abiotic factor influencing aquatic ecosystem health and the services provided to both nature and humans. Global water temperature models offer possibilities to improve our understanding of water temperature regimes, which is increasingly important against the backdrop of climate change. Yet, existing studies have predominantly relied on a single model, which can lead to an incomplete representation of uncertainty and potential biases, in addition to limited insight into the range of possible future conditions, which ultimately reduces the robustness of climate impact assessments. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of surface freshwater temperature changes from various river and lake models for both past conditions and under future scenarios of climate change. Global models consistently simulate that surface water temperatures are currently 0.5 °C–0.8 °C higher than at the turn of the century (i.e. 1981–2000), and that warming will extend and intensify with future global change throughout the 21st century. While the strength of warming is highly sensitive to the different water temperature models, emissions scenarios and global climate models, our multi-model ensemble shows a global average annual water temperature rise of between +1.3 °C and +4.1 °C by the end of the century. To illustrate a potential societal impact of our results, we evaluate how future changes in discharge and water temperature may affect existing thermoelectric power plants, estimating average annual reductions of 1.5%–6% in global usable capacity by the end of the century. However, with river water temperatures projected to exhibit more pronounced seasonal patterns in the future—especially under the more extreme climate change scenarios and during summer months in the Northern Hemisphere—intra-annual reductions in usable capacity can be much more severe. Given the challenges associated with (large-scale) adaptation to control water temperature regimes, strong climate change mitigation is crucial for minimising water temperature rises and its associated negative impacts on humankind and ecosystems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Generalizing a Data Analysis Pipeline in the Cloud to Handle Diverse Use Cases in NASA's EOSDIS

NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) is tasked with archiving and distributing Earth Observation data across a range of disciplines, including atmospheric science, oceanography, land processes, natural hazards, solar radiance and even socioeconomic aspects relating to the environment. Driven by rapidly rising data volumes, EOSDIS is migrating to a cloud computing based archive over the next few years. Although this simplifies data management somewhat, the main aim is to provide the data in an environment where end users can bring their analysis to the data rather than attempting to download and manage ever-increasing volumes. To that end, a cloud-based analysis platform is being constructed to enable data transformations, analyses and visualization without egressing the data from the cloud. In this endeavor, we expect a wide variety of users, algorithms and use cases. Consequently, the architecture of this cloud analytics platform is expressly designed to be based on open services, thus fostering an ecosystem that enables the efficient combination of common components with data-specific or analysis-specific components. Reviewed and approved by Andrew Mitchell, ESDIS project manager.

Cloud computing↗

New York Ecological Conservation: Evaluating Agricultural Conservation Easement Impact Using Earth Observations to Examine Avoided Soil Carbon Loss to Development

Farmland provides ecosystems and communities with services ranging from habitat conservation to food security. As total U.S. farmland continues to decline, agricultural lands near urban areas are especially vulnerable. Our project partners—Finger Lakes Land Trust, Genesee Land Trust, and Saratoga Preserving Land and Nature (PLAN)—can use study results to better profile farmland vulnerability, issuing conservation easements to protect maximum acreage in Saratoga County and the Finger Lakes Region of New York. Multiple existing studies effectively use remote sensing imagery to analyze historical land cover and forecast future change. This study examined soil carbon stocks and land cover change to estimate avoided soil carbon loss. We also predicted farmland vulnerability. We completed these analyses using European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA Earth observations that include Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9 OLI-2, Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), and Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) for nighttime lights data that aided in the land change model analysis. We determined that the conversion of agriculture to development from 1990 to 2022 occurred at rates of 0.91% (Finger Lakes) and 7% (Saratoga). Urban development is predicted to increase surrounding urban centers through 2030 and 2050. We also estimate that between 26.5 and 348,101 kilotons (Finger Lakes) and 3.7 and 58,006 kilotons (Saratoga) of soil carbon losses have been avoided through agricultural easements. Findings from this study will support our partners in determining agricultural conservation easement benefits and prioritizing the acquisition of future easement sites.

Agriculture↗