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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Simulation of radon-222 with the GEOS-Chem global model: Emissions, seasonality, and convective transport

Radon-222 (222Rn) is a short-lived radioactive gas naturally emitted from land surface, and has long been used to assess convective transport in atmospheric models. In this study, we simulate 222Rn using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model with aims to improve our understanding of 222Rn emissions and surface concentration seasonality, and to characterize convective transport associated with two Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) meteorological products, MERRA and GEOS-FP. We evaluate four available 222Rn emission scenarios by comparing model results with surface observations at 51 global surface sites. The default emission scenario in GEOS-Chem yields a moderate agreement with global surface observations (< 70% data within a factor of 2) and a large underestimate of wintertime surface 222Rn concentrations at Northern Hemisphere mid- and high-latitudes due to an oversimplified formulation of 222Rn emission fluxes (1 atom cm-2 s-1 over land with a reduction by a factor of 3 under freezing conditions). We compose a new global 222Rn emission scenario based on Zhang et al. (2011) and show its potential to improve simulated surface 222Rn concentrations and seasonality. The regional components of this emission scenario include spatially and temporally varying emission fluxes derived from previous measurements of soil radium content and soil exhalation models, which are key factors to 222Rn emission flux rates. However, large model underestimates of surface 222Rn concentrations still exist in Asia, suggesting unusually high regional 222Rn emissions. We propose a conservative up-scaling factor of 1.2 for 222Rn emission fluxes in China, as also constrained by the observed deposition fluxes of 210Pb (decay daughter of 222Rn). With this modification, the model shows better agreement with the observations in Europe and North America (>80% data within a factor of 2), and reasonable agreement in Asia (close to 70%). Further constraints on 222Rn emissions would require additional observations of surface 222Rn concentrations and emission fluxes in central U.S., Canada, Africa, and Asia. We also compare and assess convective transport in model simulations driven by MERRA and GEOS-FP using observed 222Rn vertical profiles during northern mid-latitude summertime and from two short-term airborne campaigns. While the simulations with both GEOS products are able to capture the observed vertical gradient of 222Rn concentrations in the lower troposphere (0-4 km), neither correctly represents the level of convective detrainment, resulting in biases in the middle and upper troposphere. Compared to GEOS-FP, MERRA leads to stronger convective transport of 222Rn, which is partially compensated by its weaker large-scale vertical advection, resulting in similar global vertical distributions of 222Rn concentrations between the two simulations.

Zhang, Bo↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Changing-look Blazar B2 1420+32

Abstract Blazars are active galactic nuclei with their relativistic jets pointing toward the observer, comprising two major subclasses, flat-spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) and BL Lac objects. We present multiwavelength photometric and spectroscopic monitoring observations of the blazar B2 1420+32, focusing on its outbursts in 2018–2020. Multiepoch spectra show that the blazar exhibited large-scale spectral variability in both its continuum and line emission, accompanied by dramatic gamma-ray and optical variability by factors of up to 40 and 15, respectively, on week to month timescales. Over the last decade, the gamma-ray and optical fluxes increased by factors of 1500 and 100, respectively. B2 1420+32 was an FSRQ with broad emission lines in 1995. Following a series of flares starting in 2018, it transitioned between BL Lac and FSRQ states multiple times, with the emergence of a strong Fe pseudocontinuum. Two spectra also contain components that can be modeled as single-temperature blackbodies of 12,000 and 5200 K. Such a collection of “changing-look” features has never been observed previously in a blazar. We measure gamma-ray–optical and interband optical lags implying emission-region separations of less than 800 and 130 gravitational radii, respectively. Since most emission-line flux variations, except the Fe continuum, are within a factor of 2–3, the transitions between FSRQ and BL Lac classifications are mainly caused by the continuum variability. The large Fe continuum flux increase suggests the occurrence of dust sublimation releasing more Fe ions in the central engine and an energy transfer from the relativistic jet to subrelativistic emission components.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Emissions Reductions from DERs in REopt Lite

Creating a clear business justification for an energy & water project is essential for developing projects by transforming data and analysis into a compelling story to secure management buy-in. This presentation provides an overview of how distributed energy resources (DERs) can provide cost savings, resilience benefits, and emissions reduction. Many technical and economic factors affect which distributed energy technologies can best meet site goals, and should be considered concurrently. With increasingly integrated and complex systems, back-of-the envelope calculations are no longer sufficient to determine distributed energy project potential. REopt Lite can be used to model emissions and evaluate the impact of DERs on reducing emissions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying Gaussian Process Machine Learning and Modern Probabilistic Programming to Satellite Data to Infer CO 2 Emissions

Satellite data provides essential insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of CO 2 concentrations. However, many atmospheric inverse models fail to adequately incorporate the spatial and temporal correlations inherent in satellite observations and often lack rigorous methods for estimating parameters like spatial length scales. We introduce an inference model that processes the spatiotemporal covariance in satellite data and estimates hyperparameters such as covariance length scales. Our approach uses the Gaussian process (GP) machine learning (ML) and modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) to perform atmospheric inversions of emissions from satellite data. We develop a GP ML inversion system based on modern PPLs and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, simulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2/3 (OCO-2/3) data for July 2020. In our supervised learning framework, we treat the GEOS-Chem simulated data set as the target, with predictors derived by scaling the target with sector-specific factors hidden from the GP machine. Our results show that the GP model, combined with GPU-enabled PPLs, effectively retrieves true emission scaling factors and infers noise levels concealed within the data. This suggests that our method could be applied over larger areas with more complex covariance structures, enabling comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in OCO-2/3 and similar satellite data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Theory of molecular emission power spectra. I. Macroscopic quantum electrodynamics formalism

In this work, we study the emission power spectrum of a molecular emitter with multiple vibrational modes in the framework of macroscopic quantum electrodynamics. The theory we present is general for a molecular spontaneous emission spectrum in the presence of arbitrary inhomogeneous, dispersive, and absorbing media. Moreover, the theory shows that the molecular emission power spectra can be decomposed into the electromagnetic environment factor and lineshape function. In order to demonstrate the validity of the theory, we investigate the lineshape function in two limits. In the incoherent limit (single molecules in a vacuum), the lineshape function exactly corresponds to the Franck–Condon principle. In the coherent limit (single molecules strongly coupled with single polaritons or photons) together with the condition of high vibrational frequency, the lineshape function exhibits a Rabi splitting, the spacing of which is exactly the same as the magnitude of exciton–photon coupling estimated by our previous theory [S. Wang et al., J. Chem. Phys. 151, 014105 (2019)]. Finally, we explore the influence of exciton–photon and electron–phonon interactions on the lineshape function of a single molecule in a cavity. The theory shows that the vibronic structure of the lineshape function does not always disappear as the exciton–photon coupling increases, and it is related to the loss of a dielectric environment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adoption of Plug-in Electric Vehicles: Local Fuel Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions Across the U.S.

The dependence on gasoline-powered light-duty automobiles has made U.S. households vulnerable to the burden of fuel costs. Tailpipe emissions from these vehicles constitute 58% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the U.S., which are damaging to the environment (EPA, 2023). The adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) has been shown to effectively reduce fuel costs and GHG emissions. However, local effects on these benefits are not well understood by American consumers, potentially limiting adoption and therefore the realization of PEV benefits at scale (MacInnis & Krosnick, 2020; EY Americas, 2023). To fill this research gap, this study estimates the fuel cost savings and GHG emission reductions at the state and ZIP code levels by considering local fuel prices, vehicle class preference, average vehicle model year, fuel efficiencies, and driving intensities. The study's findings reveal that the adoption of PEVs can yield substantial benefits in terms of fuel cost savings and GHG emission reductions nationwide. Specifically, driving a battery electric vehicle (BEV) is estimated to result in annual savings of up to $\$2,200$, while driving a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) can lead to savings up to $\$1,500$, when compared to an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) of equivalent size. Moreover, using population-weighted averages by ZIP code, BEVs and PHEVs show the potential to save 400 and 200 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per mile, respectively, compared to a representative ICEV of the same class. The magnitude of fuel cost savings and emissions reduction vary by region due to various factors. Generally, regions with high gasoline prices, low electricity prices, preferences for larger vehicles, and high driving intensities tend to see relatively large fuel savings. The emissions reductions are more pronounced in areas with clean grids where consumer preferences lie with large vehicles. This regional variability underscores the importance of considering local contextual factors when assessing the potential benefits of PEV adoption. In more than 99% of U.S. ZIP codes, PEVs result in overall savings in fuel use (and subsequent costs) and GHG emissions. While not a central focus of this analysis, reductions in GHG tailpipe emissions from PEV adoption would also come with reductions in criteria pollutant emissions, contributing to improved local air quality depending on the PEV penetration, population density, and electricity generation infrastructure in the locality.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Techno-economic comparison of electrification for heavy-duty trucks in China by 2040

We show that electrification of heavy-duty trucks (HDTs) is critical of achieving sustainability and carbon neutrality in road freight. Based on the total cost of ownership and the life-cycle emissions, the study compared the traditional diesel internal combustion engine vehicle technologies with potential electrification options for HDTs in China, including battery electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, and battery electric catenary vehicle. Scenario and sensitivity analysis were explored the life-cycle effects of these electrification options in China from 2020 to 2040. It is found that green electricity and green hydrogen are the most important factors influencing the life-cycle emissions of CO 2 , NO X , and PM 2.5 for different HDTs’ electrification options. The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle of HDTs has shown good performance in terms of total cost and carbon emissions, mainly due to the reduced battery capacity and the current grid mix in China.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing the Directionality of Gravitational Wave Emission from Matter Motions within Core-collapse Supernovae

Abstract We analyze the directional dependence of the gravitational wave (GW) emission from 15 3D neutrino radiation hydrodynamic simulations of core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe). Using spin weighted spherical harmonics, we develop a new analytic technique to quantify the evolution of the distribution of GW emission over all angles. We construct a physics-informed toy model that can be used to approximate GW distributions for general ellipsoid-like systems, and use it to provide closed form expressions for the distribution of GWs for different CCSN phases. Using these toy models, we approximate the protoneutron star (PNS) dynamics during multiple CCSN stages and obtain similar GW distributions to simulation outputs. When considering all viewing angles, we apply this new technique to quantify the evolution of preferred directions of GW emission. For nonrotating cases, this dominant viewing angle drifts isotropically throughout the supernova, set by the dynamical timescale of the PNS. For rotating cases, during core bounce and the following tens of milliseconds, the strongest GW signal is observed along the equator. During the accretion phase, comparable—if not stronger—GW amplitudes are generated along the axis of rotation, which can be enhanced by the low T /∣ W ∣ instability. We show two dominant factors influencing the directionality of GW emission are the degree of initial rotation and explosion morphology. Lastly, looking forward, we note the sensitive interplay between GW detector site and supernova orientation, along with its effect on detecting individual polarization modes.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrological Controls on Riverbed Methane Emissions: A Numerical Investigation of Hydrodynamic and Ebullitive Mechanisms from Site to Basin Scales

Methane production and emission from riverbed sediments constitute a significant yet underexplored component of the river methane budget. Despite their importance, a mechanistic and quantitative understanding of these processes under dynamic flow conditions remains elusive, particularly at the basin scale. In this study, we investigate the multiscale (site-to-basin) mechanisms governing methane emissions from riverbeds, focusing on the interplay between biogeochemical processes and hydrological dynamics. We developed a reactive transport model that integrates methane production with hydrodynamic and ebullitive pathways and coupled it with a basin-scale groundwater flow model to simulate methane emissions across scales. By incorporating key factors such as vertical hydrological exchange flow (VHEF), particulate organic carbon availability, sediment properties, and temperature sensitivity, our model captures the spatiotemporal variability of methane ebullition at both the site and basin scales. Our results reveal that methane ebullition is strongly modulated by VHEF, with lower flow rates promoting methane accumulation and subsequent ebullition. Sensitivity analyses underscore nonlinear responses of methane fluxes to environmental drivers. Furthermore, these findings emphasize the critical roles of sediment composition, hydrological exchange, and environmental conditions in shaping methane dynamics. Overall, this work advances our understanding of riverine methane emissions and offers insights for guiding climate models and mitigation strategies.

Fluxes↗
DOE OSTI2021

δ 13 C methane source signatures from tropical wetland and rice field emissions

The atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) burden is rising sharply, but the causes are still not well understood. One factor of uncertainty is the importance of tropical CH 4 emissions into the global mix. Isotopic signatures of major sources remain poorly constrained, despite their usefulness in constraining the global methane budget. Here, a collection of new δ 13 C CH 4 signatures is presented for a range of tropical wetlands and rice fields determined from air samples collected during campaigns from 2016 to 2020. Long-term monitoring of δ 13 C CH 4 in ambient air has been conducted at the Chacaltaya observatory, Bolivia and Southern Botswana. Both long-term records are dominated by biogenic CH 4 sources, with isotopic signatures expected from wetland sources. From the longer-term Bolivian record, a seasonal isotopic shift is observed corresponding to wetland extent suggesting that there is input of relatively isotopically light CH 4 to the atmosphere during periods of reduced wetland extent. This new data expands the geographical extent and range of measurements of tropical wetland and rice δ 13 C CH 4 sources and hints at significant seasonal variation in tropical wetland δ 13 C CH 4 signatures which may be important to capture in future global and regional models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Interplay of Bright Triplet and Dark Excitons Revealed by Magneto‐Photoluminescence of Individual PbS/CdS Quantum Dots

Abstract A low‐temperature polarization‐resolved magneto‐photoluminescence experiment is performed on individual PbS/CdS core/shell quantum dots (QDs). The experiment enables a direct measurement of the exciton Landé g factor and the anisotropic zero‐field splitting of the lowest emissive bright exciton triplet in PbS/CdS QDs. While anisotropic splittings of individual QDs distribute randomly in 104—325 μeV range, the exciton Landé g factors increase from 0.95 to 2.70 as the emission energy of the QD increases from 1.0 to 1.2 eV. The tight‐binding calculations allow to rationalize these trends as a direct consequence of reducing a cubic symmetry of QD via addition/removal of a few (<70) atoms from the surfaces of the PbS core. Furthermore, it is observed that while right ( σ + ) and left ( σ − ) circularly polarized photoluminescence (PL) peaks split linearly with magnetic field as expected for Zeeman effect, the energy splitting between X and Y linearly polarized PL peaks remains nearly unchanged. The theoretical study reveals rich and complex magnetic field‐induced interplay of bright triplet and dark exciton states explaining this puzzling behavior. These findings fill the missing gaps in the understanding of lead salt QDs and provide foundation for development of classical and quantum light sources operating at telecommunication wavelengths.

Kim, Younghee↗
DOE OSTI2022

First Application of Mass Measurements with the Rare-RI Ring Reveals the Solar r -Process Abundance Trend at A = 122 and A = 123

The Rare-RI Ring (R3) is a recently commissioned cyclotronlike storage ring mass spectrometer dedicated to mass measurements of exotic nuclei far from stability at Radioactive Isotope Beam Factory (RIBF) in RIKEN. The first application of mass measurement using the R3 mass spectrometer at RIBF is reported. Rare isotopes produced at RIBF— 127 Sn, 126 In, 125 Cd, 124 Ag, 123 Pd—were injected in R3. Masses of 126 In, 125 Cd, and 123 Pd were measured whereby the mass uncertainty of 123 Pd was improved. This is the first reported measurement with a new storage ring mass spectrometry technique realized at a heavy-ion cyclotron and employing individual injection of the preidentified rare nuclei. The latter is essential for the future mass measurements of the rarest isotopes produced at RIBF. The impact of the new 123 Pd result on the solar r-process abundances in a neutron star merger event is investigated by performing reaction network calculations of 20 trajectories with varying electron fraction Y e . It is found that the neutron capture cross section on 123 Pd increases by a factor of 2.2 and β-delayed neutron emission probability, P 1n , of 123 Rh increases by 14%. The neutron capture cross section on 122 Pd decreases by a factor of 2.6 leading to pileup of material at A = 122, thus reproducing the trend of the solar r-process abundances. The trend of the two-neutron separation energies (S 2n ) was investigated for the Pd isotopic chain. The new mass measurement with improved uncertainty excludes large changes of the S 2n value at N = 77. Finally, such large increase of the S 2n values before N = 82 was proposed as an alternative to the quenching of the N = 82 shell gap to reproduce r-process abundances in the mass region of A = 112 – 124.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Absolute calibration of the Lyman-α measurement apparatus at DIII-D

The LLAMA (Lyman-Alpha Measurement Apparatus) diagnostic was recently installed on the DIII-D tokamak [Rosenthal et al., Rev. Sci. Instrum. (submitted) (2020)]. LLAMA is a pinhole camera system with a narrow band Bragg mirror, a bandpass interference filter, and an absolute extreme ultraviolet photodiode detector array, which measures the Ly-α brightness in the toroidal direction on the inboard, high field side (HFS) and outboard, low field side (LFS). This contribution presents a setup and a procedure for an absolute calibration near the Ly-α line at 121.6 nm. The LLAMA in-vacuum components are designed as a compact, transferable setup that can be mounted in an ex situ vacuum enclosure that is equipped with an absolutely calibrated Ly-α source. The spectral purity and stability of the Ly-α source are characterized using a vacuum ultraviolet spectrometer, while the Ly-α source brightness is measured by a NIST-calibrated photodiode. The non-uniform nature of the Ly-α source emission was overcome by performing a calibration procedure that scans the Ly-α source position and employs a numerical optimization to determine the emission pattern. Nominal and measured calibration factors are determined and compared, showing agreement within their uncertainties. A first conversion of the measured signal obtained from DIII-D indicates that the Ly-α brightness on the HFS and LFS is on the order of 1020 Ph sr-1 m-2 s-1. The established calibration setup and procedure will be regularly used to re-calibrate the LLAMA during DIII-D vents to monitor possible degradation of optical components and detectors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of chromium impurities in β -Ga2O3

Chromium is a common transition-metal impurity that is easily incorporated during crystal growth. It is perhaps best known for giving rise to the 694.3 nm (1.786 eV) emission in Cr-doped Al2O3, exploited in ruby lasers. Chromium has also been found in monoclinic gallium oxide, a wide-bandgap semiconductor being pursued for power electronics. In this work, we thoroughly characterize the behavior of Cr in Ga2O3 through theoretical and experimental techniques. β-Ga2O3 samples are grown with the floating zone method and show evidence of a sharp photoluminescence signal, reminiscent of ruby. We calculate the energetics of formation of Cr from first principles, demonstrating that Cr preferentially incorporates as a neutral impurity on the octahedral site. Cr possesses a quartet ground-state spin and has an internal transition with a zero-phonon line near 1.8 eV. By comparing the calculated and experimentally measured luminescence lineshape function, we elucidate the role of coupling to phonons and uncover features beyond the Franck–Condon approximation. The combination of strong emission with a small Huang–Rhys factor of 0.05 and a technologically relevant host material renders Cr in Ga2O3 attractive as a quantum defect.

Turiansky, Mark E. (ORCID:0000000291543582)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Purcell Enhancement of Tin-Vacancy Centers in Thin-Film Diamond Cavities

We couple tin-vacancy (SnV-) centers in thin-film diamond to one-dimensional photonic crystal cavities of different orientations and develop a spontaneous emission model that rigorously quantifies Purcell factors and the branching ratio of the zero-phonon line (ZPL) transitions.

KLeidermacher, Hannah↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of Two Models for the Angular Structure of the Outflows Producing the Swift/XRT “Larger-angle Emission” of Gamma-Ray Bursts

The quasi-instantaneous emission from a relativistic surface endowed with a Lorentz factor that decreases away from the outflow symmetry axis can naturally explain the three phases observed by Swift X-Ray Telescope (XRT) in gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and their afterglows (GRB tail, afterglow plateau, and postplateau) based only on the angular change of the relativistic Doppler boost across the outflow surface. We develop further the analytical formalism of the “larger-angle emission” model for the case of “n-exponential” outflows (where the Lorentz factor Γ dependence of the angular location θ is Γ ~ exp{-(θ/θ c ) n }), and compare its ability to account for the X-ray emission of XRT afterglows relative to that of “power-law” outflows (Γ ∼ θ −g ). Power-law outflows yield longer afterglow plateaus, followed by slower postplateau flux decays than n-exponential outflows, features which may be used in identifying which type of angular structure is at work in a given afterglow. Identifying the Γ(θ) angular structure that accommodates XRT light curves is slightly complicated by the fact that the afterglow X-ray light curve is also determined by how two characteristics of the comoving-frame emission spectrum (peak energy $E'_p$ and peak intensity $i'_p$) change with the angular location or, equivalently, with the Lorentz factor. Here, we assume power-law Γ dependences of those spectral characteristics and find that, unlike power-law outflows, n-exponential outflows cannot account for plateaus with a temporal dynamical range larger than 100 (2 dex in logarithmic space). To capture all the information contained in XRT afterglow measurements (0.3–10 keV unabsorbed flux and effective spectral slope), we calculate 0.3 and 10 keV light curves using a broken-power-law emission spectrum of peak energy and low- and high-energy slopes that are derived from the effective slope measured by XRT. This economical peak energy determination is found to be consistent with the results of more expensive spectral fits. The angular distributions of the Lorentz factor, comoving frame peak energy, and peak intensity (Γ(θ), $E'_p$(θ), $i'_p$(θ)) constrain the (yet-to-be determined) convolution of various features of the production of relativistic jets by solar-mass black holes and of their propagation through the progenitor/circumburst medium, while the $E'_p$(Γ) and $i'_p$(Γ) dependences may constrain the GRB dissipation mechanism and the GRB emission process.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of a tomographic reconstruction method for axisymmetric D α emission profiles in the ITER plasma boundary

A tomographic method for reconstructing the axially symmetric D α emission profile in the ITER scrape-off layer and divertor from D α intensity measurements in the fields of view (FoV) of Vis/IR TV and Divertor Impurity Monitor diagnostics is under development. The method takes into account the strong background signal due to stray light from divertor produced by reflections from the metal wall of the vacuum chamber. The method allows to filter out the reflections in D α signals measured in the main chamber. Here, the accuracy of this method is tested within the framework of a synthetic diagnostic, which uses the Raysect and Cherab numerical codes for ray-tracing simulations. The D α emission profiles, simulated with the SOLPS and OEDGE codes, are used as synthetic experimental data. Uncertainty in light reflection properties of the first wall (FW) is the major factor affecting the accuracy of the D α emission reconstruction. The dependence on the uncertainty in the FW surface roughness and on the ratio of diffusive to specular reflection of the error in recovering useful D α signals (the direct light without reflections) in the FoV of the ITER main chamber H-alpha and Visible Spectroscopy Diagnostic is obtained.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating long-term emission impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in the US using a human-Earth systems model

While large-scale adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) globally would reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and traditional air pollutant emissions from the transportation sector, emissions from the electric sector, refineries, and potentially other sources would change in response. Here, a multi-sector human-Earth systems model is used to evaluate the net long-term emission implications of large-scale EV adoption in the US over widely differing pathways of the evolution of the electric sector. Our results indicate that high EV adoption would decrease net CO 2 emissions through 2050, even for a scenario where all electric sector capacity additions through 2050 are fossil fuel technologies. Greater net CO 2 reductions would be realized for scenarios that emphasize renewables or decarbonization of electricity production. Net air pollutant emission changes in 2050 are relatively small compared to expected overall decreases from recent levels to 2050. States participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative experience greater CO 2 and air pollutant reductions on a percentage basis. These results suggest that coordinated, multi-sector planning can greatly enhance the climate and environmental benefits of EVs. Additional factors are identified that influence the net emission impacts of EVs, including the retirement of coal capacity, refinery operations under reduced gasoline demands, and price-induced fuel switching in residential heating and in the industrial sector.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗