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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

DeepONet-Assisted Optimization of Surface Topography for Transition Delay in a Mach 4.5 Boundary Layer

We use deep learning, an ensemble variational technique (EnVar), and direct numerical simulations(DNS) to design an optimal topography for a two-dimensional roughness element that delays the on-set of laminar-turbulent transition in a Mach 4.5 flat-plate boundary layer. Deep operator networks (DeepONets), which have the known ability to learn complex nonlinear operators within dynamical systems, are used for machine learning. For the baseline configuration of a smooth flat plate, the second-mode waves at the DNS inflow cause a quick nonlinear breakdown of the high-speed boundary layer within the computational domain. Results reported in the present study validate the ability of DeepONets to model the transition delay via a given topography of the roughness element. The computing cost to optimize the rough-ness element for minimal skin-friction drag is substantially lowered by the DeepONets-based reduced-order model. In comparison to the baseline method of EnVar optimization based on DNS alone, the DeepONets-based EnVar optimizer is able to delay transition past the outflow boundary of the computational domain while utilizing almost 5–6 times fewer DNS.

Machine Learning↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Model of Reduced Kinetics for Alkane Oxidation Using Constituents and Species for N-Heptane

The reduction of elementary or skeletal oxidation kinetics to a subgroup of tractable reactions for inclusion in turbulent combustion codes has been the subject of numerous studies. The skeletal mechanism is obtained from the elementary mechanism by removing from it reactions that are considered negligible for the intent of the specific study considered. As of now, there are many chemical reduction methodologies. A methodology for deriving a reduced kinetic mechanism for alkane oxidation is described and applied to n-heptane. The model is based on partitioning the species of the skeletal kinetic mechanism into lights, defined as those having a carbon number smaller than 3, and heavies, which are the complement of the species ensemble. For modeling purposes, the heavy species are mathematically decomposed into constituents, which are similar but not identical to groups in the group additivity theory. From analysis of the LLNL (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) skeletal mechanism in conjunction with CHEMKIN II, it is shown that a similarity variable can be formed such that the appropriately non-dimensionalized global constituent molar density exhibits a self-similar behavior over a very wide range of equivalence ratios, initial pressures and initial temperatures that is of interest for predicting n-heptane oxidation. Furthermore, the oxygen and water molar densities are shown to display a quasi-linear behavior with respect to the similarity variable. The light species ensemble is partitioned into quasi-steady and unsteady species. The reduced model is based on concepts consistent with those of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) in which functional forms are used to replace the small scales eliminated through filtering of the governing equations; in LES, these small scales are unimportant as far as the overwhelming part of dynamic energy is concerned. Here, the scales thought unimportant for recovering the thermodynamic energy are removed. The concept is tested by using tabular information from the LLNL skeletal mechanism in conjunction with CHEMKIN II utilized as surrogate ideal functions replacing the necessary functional forms. The test reveals that the similarity concept is indeed justified and that the combustion temperature is well predicted, but that the ignition time is over-predicted, a fact traced to neglecting a detailed description of the processes leading to the heavies chemical decomposition. To palliate this deficiency, functional modeling is incorporated into this conceptual reduction in addition to the modeling the evolution of the global constituent molar density, the enthalpy evolution of the heavies, the contribution to the reaction rate of the unsteady lights from other light species and from the heavies, the molar density evolution of oxygen and water, and the mole fractions of the quasisteady light species. The model is compact in that there are only nine species-related progress variables. Results are presented showing the performance of the model for predicting the temperature and species evolution. The model reproduces the ignition time over a wide range of equivalence ratios, initial pressure, and initial temperature.

Harstad, Kenneth G.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

Many studies have been carried out during the last decade to study the effect of climate change on crop yields and other key crop characteristics. In these studies, one or several crop models were used to simulate crop growth and development for different climate scenarios that correspond to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and rainfall changes (Semenov et al., 1996; Tubiello and Ewert, 2002; White et al., 2011). The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013) builds on these studies with the goal of using an ensemble of multiple crop models in order to assess effects of climate change scenarios for several crops in contrasting environments. These studies generate large datasets, including thousands of simulated crop yield data. They include series of yield values obtained by combining several crop models with different climate scenarios that are defined by several climatic variables (temperature, CO2, rainfall, etc.). Such datasets potentially provide useful information on the possible effects of different climate change scenarios on crop yields. However, it is sometimes difficult to analyze these datasets and to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexity; simulated yield data can differ among contrasting climate scenarios, sites, and crop models. Another issue is that it is not straightforward to extrapolate the results obtained for the scenarios to alternative climate change scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Additional dynamic crop model simulations for new climate change scenarios are an option but this approach is costly, especially when a large number of crop models are used to generate the simulated data, as in AgMIP. Statistical models have been used to analyze responses of measured yield data to climate variables in past studies (Lobell et al., 2011), but the use of a statistical model to analyze yields simulated by complex process-based crop models is a rather new idea. We demonstrate herewith that statistical methods can play an important role in analyzing simulated yield data sets obtained from the ensembles of process-based crop models. Formal statistical analysis is helpful to estimate the effects of different climatic variables on yield, and to describe the between-model variability of these effects.

climate↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

DeepONet-Assisted Optimization of Surface Topography for Transition Delay in A Mach 4.5 Boundary Layer

We use deep learning, an ensemble variationaltechnique (EnVar), and direct numerical simulations(DNS) to design an optimal topography for a two-dimensional roughness element that delays the on-set of laminar-turbulent transition in a Mach 4.5 flat-plate boundary layer. Deep operator networks (Deep-ONets), which have the known ability to learn com-plex nonlinear operators within dynamical systems,are used for machine learning. For the baseline config-uration of a smooth flat plate, the second-mode wavesat the DNS inflow cause a quick nonlinear breakdownof the high-speed boundary layer within the computa-tional domain. Results reported in the present studyvalidate the ability of DeepONets to model the tran-sition delay via a given topography of the roughnesselement. The computing cost to optimize the rough-ness element for minimal skin-friction drag is substan-tially lowered by the DeepONets-based reduced-ordermodel. In comparison to the baseline method of EnVaroptimization based on DNS alone, the DeepONets-based EnVar optimizer is able to delay transition pastthe outflow boundary of the computational domainwhile utilizing almost 5–6 times fewer DNS.

Machine Learning↗
NASA NTRS1984

Calculation of steady and oscillating airfoil flow fields via the Navier Stokes equations

A Navier-Stokes calculation procedure is applied to high Reynolds number flow about steady and unsteady airfoils. The procedure solves the ensemble averaged governing equations via a linearized block implicit (LBI) technique which in general converges to a nominal steady flow within 120 time steps. The grid used in the computation is highly stretched thus resolving the turbulent boundary layers. Calculations have been compared with data for both NACA 4412 airfoil at high incidence and an NACA 0012 airfoil oscillating in dynamic stall. In both cases, good agreement is noted between measured and calculated surface pressure distributions.

Shamroth, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Studies of Disks Around the Sun and Other Stars

We are conducting research designed to enhance our understanding of the evolution and detectability of comet clouds and disks. This area holds promise for also improving our understanding of outer solar system formation, the bombardment history of the planets, the transport of volatiles and organics from the outer solar system to the inner planets, and to the ultimate fate of comet clouds around the Sun and other stars. According to 'standard' theory, both the Kuiper Disk and the Oort Cloud are (at least in part) natural products of the planetary accumulation stage of solar system formation. One expects such assemblages to be a common attribute of other solar systems. Therefore, searches for comet disks and clouds orbiting other stars offer a new method for inferring the presence of planetary systems. This two-element program consists modeling collisions in the Kuiper Disk and the dust disks around other stars. The modeling effort focuses on moving from our simple, first-generation, Kuiper disk collision rate model, to a time-dependent, second-generation model that incorporates physical collisions, velocity evolution, dynamical erosion, and various dust transport mechanisms. This second generation model will be used to study the evolution of surface mass density and the object-size spectrum in the disk. The observational effort focuses on obtaining submm/mm-wave flux density measurements of 25-30 IR excess stars in order to better constrain the masses, spatial extents and structure of their dust ensembles.

Stern, S. Alan↗
NASA NTRS2008

Discrete Element Modeling of Triboelectrically Charged Particles

Tribocharging of particles is common in many processes including fine powder handling and mixing, printer toner transport and dust extraction. In a lunar environment with its high vacuum and lack of water, electrostatic forces are an important factor to consider when designing and operating equipment. Dust mitigation and management is critical to safe and predictable performance of people and equipment. The extreme nature of lunar conditions makes it difficult and costly to carry out experiments on earth which are necessary to better understand how particles gather and transfer charge between each other and with equipment surfaces. DEM (Discrete Element Modeling) provides an excellent virtual laboratory for studying tribocharging of particles as well as for design of devices for dust mitigation and for other purposes related to handling and processing of lunar regolith. Theoretical and experimental work has been performed pursuant to incorporating screened Coulombic electrostatic forces into EDEM, a commercial DEM software package. The DEM software is used to model the trajectories of large numbers of particles for industrial particulate handling and processing applications and can be coupled with other solvers and numerical models to calculate particle interaction with surrounding media and force fields. While simple Coulombic force between two particles is well understood, its operation in an ensemble of particles is more complex. When the tribocharging of particles and surfaces due to frictional contact is also considered, it is necessary to consider longer range of interaction of particles in response to electrostatic charging. The standard DEM algorithm accounts for particle mechanical properties and inertia as a function of particle shape and mass. If fluid drag is neglected, then particle dynamics are governed by contact between particles, between particles and equipment surfaces and gravity forces. Consideration of particle charge and any tribocharging and electric field effects requires calculation of the forces due to these effects.

Hogue, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Early Estimation of Solar Activity Cycle: Potential Capability and Limits

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and longterm sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Using Data Assimilation Methods of Prediction of Solar Activity

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Prediction↗
NASA NTRS2017

Using Data Assimilation Methods for Prediction of Solar Activity

The variability of solar magnetic activity known as the 11-­‐year solar cycles has the longest history of observations. These solar cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth’s space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-­‐term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-­‐term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of the solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Solar Activity↗
NASA NTRS1982

Ensemble averaging of acoustic data

A computer program called Ensemble Averaging of Acoustic Data is documented. The program samples analog data, analyzes the data, and displays them in the time and frequency domains. Hard copies of the displays are the program's output. The documentation includes a description of the program and detailed user instructions for the program. This software was developed for use on the Ames 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel's Dynamic Analysis System consisting of a PDP-11/45 computer, two RK05 disk drives, a tektronix 611 keyboard/display terminal, and FPE-4 Fourier Processing Element, and an analog-to-digital converter.

Stefanski, P. K.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Probabilistic Modeling of Aircraft Trajectories for Dynamic Separation Volumes

With a proliferation of new and unconventional vehicles and operations expected in the future, the ab initio airspace design will require new approaches to trajectory prediction for separation assurance and other air traffic management functions. This paper presents an approach to probabilistic modeling of the trajectory of an aircraft when its intent is unknown. The approach uses a set of feature functions to constrain a maximum entropy probability distribution based on a set of observed aircraft trajectories. This model can be used to sample new aircraft trajectories to form an ensemble reflecting the variability in an aircraft's intent. The model learning process ensures that the variability in this ensemble reflects the behavior observed in the original data set. Computational examples are presented.

Lewis, Timothy A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Moisture and Temperature Influences on Nonlinear Vegetation Trends in Serengeti National Park

While long-term vegetation greening trends have appeared across large land areas over the late 20th century, uncertainty remains in identifying and attributing finer-scale vegetation changes and trends, particularly across protected areas. Serengeti National Park (SNP) is a critical East African protected area, where seasonal vegetation cycles support vast populations of grazing herbivores and a host of ecosystem dynamics. Previous work has shown how non-climate drivers (e.g. land use) shape the SNP ecosystem, but it is still unclear to what extent changing climate conditions influence SNP vegetation, particularly at finer spatial and temporal scales. We fill this research gap by evaluating long-term (1982–2016) changes in SNP leaf area index (LAI) in relation to both temperature and moisture availability using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Principal Component Analysis with regression techniques. We find that SNP LAI trends are nonlinear, display high sub-seasonal variation, and are influenced by lagged changes in both moisture and temperature variables and their interactions. LAI during the long rains (e.g. March) exhibits a greening-to-browning trend reversal starting in the early 2000s, partly due to antecedent precipitation declines. In contrast, LAI during the short rains (e.g. November, December) displays browning-to-greening alongside increasing moisture availability. Rising temperature trends also have important, secondary interactions with moisture variables to shape these SNP vegetation trends. Our findings show complex vegetation-climate interactions occurring at important temporal and spatial scales of the SNP, and our rigorous statistical approaches detect these complex climate-vegetation trends and interactions, while guarding against spurious vegetation signals.

Moisture↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Inferred Sea Level Prediction in the NASA GMAO Seasonal Forecasting System

Reliable predictions of sea level anomalies on seasonal timescales with lead times of 1 to 9 months may have relevance to stakeholders – for example, in the advance deployment of resources for coastal flood mitigation. Routine prediction and analysis may also highlight physical processes associated with sea level change and modeling capabilities on seasonal and other timescales. These forecasts may represent interannual changes in the seasonal slope of the ocean surface, teleconnection effects such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and variations in seasonal hydrology including precipitation and coastal runoff. Coupled atmosphere/ocean models are routinely used in the seasonal prediction of temperature anomalies, precipitation anomalies, sea ice cover, and climate indices such as the Niño3.4 predictions under the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) protocol. Within the limits of their configuration, these complex Earth-system models have a potential for depicting regional changes in oceanic column properties, including the sea surface height. Seasonal prediction models generally have no representation of long-term mass contributions from melting land ice, or changes in vertical land motion; their output may be more specifically characterized as predictions of the ocean dynamic sea level. In practice however, the sea surface height prognostic variable is substantially compromised by the forecast model response to initial conditions. Imbalances between the initial, observed hydrologic cycle and the forecast model state produce abrupt adjustments in the model sea surface height. As a result, most seasonal prediction systems employ a constraint on the globally-averaged sea surface height that is applied at each time step. This essentially renders the prognostic sea surface height variable as unserviceable. Several approaches have previously been used to retrieve sea level information from seasonal forecasts beyond the use of the sea surface height variable. Here, we extend a method of relating other prognostic values, including ocean circulation and climate indices, to observed sea level variations. We use the merged altimetry record of the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies data set and monthly revised local reference gauge observations from the National Oceanography Centre Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) to evaluate derived prognostic variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office subseasonal-to-seasonal system version 2.1 (GMAO S2S v2.1). We focus on results for the midlatitudes with particular emphasis on US gauge locations. As shown in previous studies, prognostic ENSO-related indices in boreal winter are well correlated with gauge observations for the US west coast, but also for other locations in the southeastern US. Other forecast climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation have relations to sea level that are limited both seasonally and spatially. As expected, surface atmospheric pressure (e.g., inverse barometer effect) is found to be particularly well correlated with observed sea level. We provide a characterization of forecast skill for seasonal sea level with this method.

Richard I Cullather↗
NASA NTRS1971

Theory of the unmagnetized plasma.

The Vlasov mathematical model of a plasma, which has come to be thought more useful than any other in describing the dynamical behavior of the majority of plasmas of interest, is first examined. Macroscopic variables and moment equations; linear electrostatics solutions; plasma oscillations, ion acoustic waves, and linear instabilities are treated, as well as external fields, 'test' charges, and nonlinear Vlasov phenomena. Plasmas are statistically described, and attention is given to the kinetic theory of the stable, uniform plasma and the Balescu-Lenard equation; two-time ensemble averages and fluctuation spectra in stable plasmas; the kinetic theory of the unstable plasma; and ensembles of Vlasov plasmas. Some illustrative experiments are described. Four appendixes deal with the electrostatic approximation and transverse waves; solution of the linearized Vlasov equation in a magnetic field; estimates of correlation functions from thermal equilibrium; and equivalence of spatially uniform BBGKY and Klimontovich correlations.

Montgomery, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Tropical Cyclones in the GEOS-S2S-2 Subseasonal Forecasts

This paper analyzes the climatology, prediction skill, and predictability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in NASA’s Global Earth Observing System Subseasonal to Seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecast system version 2. GEOS reasonably simulates the number and spatial distribution of TCs compared to observations except in the Atlantic where the model simulates too few TCs due to low genesis rates in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The environmental conditions, diagnosed through a genesis potential index, do not clearly explain model biases in the genesis rates, especially in the Atlantic. At the storm-scale, GEOS reforecasts replicate several key aspects of the thermodynamic and dynamic structure of observed TCs, such as a warm core and the secondary circulation. The model, however, fails to simulate an off-center eyewall when evaluating vertical velocity, precipitation and moisture. The analysis of prediction skill of TC genesis and occurrence shows that GEOS has comparable skill to other global models in WMO S2S archive and that its skill could be further improved by increasing the ensemble size. After calibration, GEOS forecasts are skillful in the Western North Pacific and Southern Indian Ocean up to 20 days in advance. A model-based predictability analysis demonstrates the importance of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as a source of predictability of TC occurrence beyond the 14 day lead-time. Forecasts initialized under strong MJO conditions show evidence of predictability beyond week 3. However, due to model biases in the forecast distribution there are notable gaps between MJO-related prediction skill and predictability which require further study.

Jorge L. Garcia-Franco↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ocean-Land Teleconnections and Chaotic Atmospheric Variability in Climate Models, with Implications for Real-World Behavior

This study introduces a unique approach to estimating a fundamental but unmeasurable property of Nature: ρo 2 , the fraction of the variance of a given meteorological variable that is determined by boundary forcing (specifically, SSTs) as opposed to chaotic atmospheric dynamics. Here, we focus on continental monthly-averaged near-surface air temperature, or T2M. Rather than determining the fractions of SST-explained T2M variance found for a specific atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and then assuming that these fractions also represent Nature, we perform an analysis that entails: (i) evaluating a specific AGCM’s ability to capture observed variability with an infinite number of ensemble members, (ii) quantifying the degree to which different modeling systems agree on SST-land teleconnections, and (iii) combining these results into our novel estimates of ρo 2 . The derived ρo 2 fields suggest, with caveats, that AGCMs tend to overestimate the fraction of explained T2M variance (the signal-to-total variance ratio) in the Tropics.

Randal D Koster↗
NASA NTRS2012

Analysis of Buzz in a Supersonic Inlet

A dual-stream, low-boom supersonic inlet designed for use on a small, Mach 1.6 aircraft was tested experimentally in the 8- by 6-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel (SWT) at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). The tests showed that the inlet had good recovery and stable operation over large mass flow range. The inlet went into buzz at mass flows well below that needed for engine operation, and the experiments generated a wealth of data during buzz. High frequency response pressure measurements and high-speed schlieren videos were recorded for many buzz events. The objective of the present work was to use computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to predict some of the experimental data taken during buzz, compare those predictions to the experimental data, and to use both datasets to explain the physics of the buzz cycle. The calculations were done with the Wind-US CFD code using a second-order time-accurate differencing scheme and the SST turbulence model. Computed Mach number contours were compared with schlieren images, and ensemble-averaged unsteady pressures were compared to data. The results showed that the buzz cycle consisted partly of spike buzz, an unsteady oscillation of the main shock at the spike tip while the inlet pressure dropped, and partly of choked flow while the inlet repressurized. Most of the results could be explained by theory proposed by Dailey in 1954, but did not support commonly used acoustic resonance explanations.

Chima, Rodrick V.↗