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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

One‐at‐a‐Time Parameter Perturbation Ensemble of the Community Land Model, Version 5.1

Comprehensive land models are subject to significant parametric uncertainty, which can be hard to quantify due to the large number of parameters and high model computational costs. We constructed a large parameter perturbation ensemble (PPE) for the Community Land Model version 5.1 with biogeochemistry configuration (CLM5.1-BGC). We performed more than 2,000 simulations perturbing 211 parameters across six forcing scenarios. This provides an expansive data set, which can be used to identify the most influential parameters on a wide range of output variables globally, by biome, or by plant functional type. We found that parameter effects can exceed scenario effects and that a small number of parameters explains a large fraction of variance across our ensemble. The most important parameters can differ regionally and also based on the forcing scenario. The software infrastructure developed for this experiment has greatly reduced the human and computer time needed for CLM PPEs, which can facilitate routine investigation of parameter sensitivity and uncertainty, as well as automated calibration.

Kennedy, Daniel [NSF National Center for Atmospher↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Boundary-induced classical generalized Gibbs ensemble with angular momentum

We investigate how confinement geometry leads to the emergence of a Generalized Gibbs Ensemble (GGE) in classical systems. Unlike the standard Gibbs ensemble, the GGE includes additional conserved quantities, such as angular momentum, that arise from boundary-induced symmetries. Using analytical arguments based on the maximum entropy principle, we show that circular boundaries preserve angular momentum and drive the system toward a chiral, non-ergodic GGE that violates time-reversal symmetry. This ensemble differs fundamentally from the Gibbs case, producing near-boundary condensation and revealing how geometry alone can alter thermal equilibration. To quantify these effects, we introduce an order parameter measuring deviations from Gibbs behavior and demonstrate that conventional Monte Carlo methods must incorporate angular momentum conservation under such conditions. Our study highlights how geometric constraints shape non-equilibrium statistical ensembles and lead to subtle departures from the Bohr-van Leeuwen theorem. These predictions are validated through detailed simulations of confined classical hard-disk gases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Contrasting Parametric Sensitivities in Two Global Vegetation Models Using Parameter Perturbation Ensembles

Uncertainty in land model projections remains high and the roles of parametric and structural uncertainty are difficult to disentangle. To compare parametric sensitivity across model structures we present two parameter perturbation ensembles using the Community Land Model (CLM) operating in satellite phenology mode. The ensembles contrast two vegetation modules: (a) the default CLM vegetation module and (b) the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (CLM-FATES). We perturbed over 300 parameters and quantified their effects on biophysical fluxes globally and across biomes. Most parameters have minimal impact on biophysical fluxes, with only a few substantially influencing results. While both models exhibit similar parameter sensitivity for some fluxes, CLM-FATES shows larger spread in gross primary productivity (GPP), driven by strong sensitivity to carboxylation rate. CLM-FATES also shows a weaker GPP response to soil hydrology parameters and exhibits higher water use efficiency (WUE). Cross-model comparisons reveal similar sensitivities for some parameters (e.g., leaf dimension) but divergent responses to others (e.g., stomatal intercept), highlighting underlying structural differences. Differences in WUE and sensitivity to hydrology and stomatal conductance parameters underscore how model structure fundamentally alters parametric sensitivity. The data sets generated from these ensembles can be used to identify influential parameters and guide future calibration efforts.

Foster, A. C. [NSF National Center for Atmospheric↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lectures on statistical mechanics

Presented here is a transcription of the lecture notes from Professor Allan N. Kaufman’s graduate statistical mechanics course Physics 212A and 212B at the University of California Berkeley from the 1972–1973 academic year. 212A addressed equilibrium statistical mechanics with topics: fundamentals (micro-canonical and sub-canonical ensembles, adiabatic law and action conservation, fluctuations, pressure, and virial theorem), classical fluids and other systems (equation of state, deviations from ideality, virial coefficients and van der Waals potential, canonical ensemble and partition function, quasistatic evolution, grand-canonical ensemble and partition function, chemical potential, simple model of a phase transition, quantum virial expansion, numerical simulation of equations of state, and phase transition), chemical equilibrium (systems with multiple species and chemical reactions, law of mass action, Saha equation, chemical equilibrium including ionization and excited states), and long-range interactions (including Coulomb, dipole, and gravitational interactions, Debye–Hückel theory, and shielding). 212B addressed nonequilibrium statistical mechanics with topics: fundamentals (definitions: realizations, moments, characteristic function, and discrete variables), Brownian motion (Langevin equation, fluctuation–dissipation theorem, spatial diffusion, Boltzmann’s H-theorem), Liouville and Klimontovich equations, Landau equation (derivation, elaboration, and H-theorem, and irreversibility), Markov processes and Fokker–Planck equation (derivations of the Fokker–Planck equation and a master equation), linear response and transport theory (linear Boltzmann equation, linear response theory of Kubo and Mori, relation of entropy production to electrical conductivity, transport relations and coefficients, normal mode solutions of the transport equations, sketch of a generalized Langevin equation method for transport theory), and an introduction to nonequilibrium quantum statistical mechanics.

plasma dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of the United States GReenhouse Gas and Air Pollutants Emissions System (GRA 2 PES)

In the U.S., emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants are often developed independently. Here, we describe the GReenhouse gas And Air Pollutants Emissions System (GRA 2 PES), which provides gridded emissions of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide (ffCO 2 ) and 93 air quality (AQ) species for 17 combustion and non-combustion sectors at 4 km × 4 km spatial resolution across the contiguous US. We find that the AQ emissions most spatially correlated with ffCO 2 are nitrogen oxides (NO x , ρ = 0.67), followed by sulfur dioxide (SO 2 , ρ = 0.51), carbon monoxide (CO, ρ = 0.44), and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 , ρ = 0.38). We evaluate GRA 2 PES ffCO 2 emissions with an ensemble of publicly available regional and global inventories at national (Normalized Mean Bias (NMB) = +1.4%), state (NMB = +1.5%, R 2 = 0.98), and urban (NMB = +11.5%, R 2 = 0.97) scales. Nationally, the differences of publicly available inventories from the ensemble average range from −10.0% to +5.7%, and consistency diverges at state and urban scales. We simulate GRA 2 PES ffCO 2 in a particle dispersion model and compare to measurements of radiocarbon ( 14 C)-derived ffCO 2 collected in Los Angeles (August 2021), with results suggesting that GRA 2 PES ffCO 2 may be low by 19% for this city, but well within model-observation differences for other publicly available inventories (−43% to +94%). GRA 2 PES AQ/ffCO 2 ratios converted to concentration space generally agree with field observations (NMB = +4%, log R 2 = 0.90). Lastly, we present a method by which to utilize GRA 2 PES to derive AQ emission fluxes from ffCO 2 emissions.

Lyu, Congmeng [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance of wind assessment datasets in United States coastal areas

The atmospheric dynamics that occur near the intersection of land and water offer exciting and challenging opportunities for wind energy deployment in coastal locations. New models and tools are continually being developed in support of wind resource assessment, and three recent products are explored in this work for their performance in representing characteristics of the wind resource at coastal locations: the Global Wind Atlas 3 (GWA3), the 2023 National Offshore Wind dataset (NOW-23), and the wind climate simulations that are a component of the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit Long-Term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED Climate). These relatively new products are freely available and user-friendly so that anyone – from a utility-scale developer to a resident or business owner – can evaluate the potential for wind energy generation at their location of interest. The validations in this work provide guidance on the accuracy of wind resource assessments for coastal customers interested in installing small or midsize wind turbines (≤ 1 MW in capacity) to support energy needs at the residential, business, or community scale, such as the island and remotely located participants of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project. At 23 coastal locations across the United States, dataset performance varies according to different evaluation metrics. All three recent datasets tend to overestimate the observed coastal wind resource. GWA3 produces the smallest annual average wind speed relative errors, whereas WTK-LED Climate is in best agreement in terms of representing diurnal wind speed cycles. NOW-23 is the highest performing of the datasets for representing seasonal and interannual trends in the coastal wind resource. While GWA3 and WTK-LED Climate are relatively insensitive to the dataset output heights selected for wind resource assessment at small and midsize wind turbine hub heights (20–60 m), significant variation in the NOW-23 representation of wind shear across the wind profile in the lowest 100 m of the atmosphere leads to notable differences in wind speed estimates according to the dataset output heights selected for evaluation. GWA3 exhibits challenges in the representation of observed wind speed diurnal cycles at small and midsize turbine hub heights, likely due to the dataset's consistent treatment of hourly wind speed trends regardless of altitude.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ensemble‐Based, Large‐Eddy Reconstruction of Wind Turbine Inflow in a Near‐Stationary Atmospheric Boundary Layer Through Generative Artificial Intelligence

ABSTRACT To validate the second‐by‐second dynamics of turbines in field experiments, it is necessary to accurately reconstruct the winds going into the turbine. Current time‐resolved inflow reconstruction techniques estimate wind behavior in unobserved regions using relatively simple spectral‐based models of the atmosphere. Here, we develop a technique for time‐resolved inflow reconstruction that is rooted in a large‐eddy simulation model of the atmosphere. Our “large‐eddy reconstruction” technique blends observations and atmospheric model information through a diffusion model machine learning algorithm, allowing us to generate probabilistic ensembles of reconstructions for a single 10‐min observational period. Our generated inflows can be used directly by aeroelastic codes or as inflow boundary conditions in a large‐eddy simulation. We verify the second‐by‐second reconstruction capability of our technique in three synthetic field campaigns, finding positive Pearson correlation coefficient values () between ground‐truth and reconstructed streamwise velocity, as well as smaller positive correlation coefficient values for unobserved fields (spanwise velocity, vertical velocity, and temperature). We validate our technique in three real‐world case studies by driving large‐eddy simulations with reconstructed inflows and comparing to independent inflow measurements. The reconstructions are visually similar to measurements, follow desired power spectra properties, and track second‐by‐second behavior ().

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

HIGH-FIDELITY SIMULATION OF SOOT FORMATION AND THERMAL RADIATION IN A LABORATORY-SCALE RICH-QUENCH-LEAN BURNER

High-fidelity simulations of a swirl-stabilized turbulent spray flame in a laboratory-scale aero-combustor have been performed to evaluate the predictability of state-of-the-art models in capturing soot formation. The simulations employ a complex chemical mechanism developed for Jet-A with PAH chemistry, coupled with the Hybrid Method of Moments (HMOM) soot model, and a Lagrangian dilute spray model for the fuel injection. Two simulations are performed to compare the results when thermal radiation is neglected or included in the solution with a mean spectral model. Modeling closures for the soot differential diffusion effects in mixture fraction space, as well as turbulence-radiation interaction are also evaluated using the data generated by the simulations. Given the degree of complexity of the simulation, the results showed good agreement with experimental measurements of the spatial distribution of the soot volume fraction ensemble average. A closer agreement with the experiment is observed when thermal radiation is included in the solution. Thermal radiation is observed to reduce the flame temperature and increase the flame intermittency, denoted by the increase in the temperature standard deviation in mixture fraction space. The reduction in temperature also leads to a reduction in PAH production and soot volume fraction. Turbulence is observed to have different effects on radiative emission depending on the mixture fraction. Turbulent scalar fluctuations significantly enhance radiative emission in fuel lean mixtures and can also play a role for fuel rich conditions. The statistical description of the turbulence-radiation interaction, previously proposed in the literature, was observed to correctly reproduce the high-fidelity results. Model coefficients were provided for swirl-stabilized flames. The soot differential diffusion model, previously proposed in the literature, based on the residual between the exact term and its model approximation, was also evaluated. The residual correction term further improved the agreement with exact differential diffusion term evaluated with the high-fidelity simulation data in mixture fraction space. The results suggest that the effective turbulent Lewis number can be equal to unity in simulations of turbulent non-premixed recirculating flames.

Soriano, Bruno [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Activation dynamics of a water-soluble human mu-opioid receptor

The mu-opioid receptor (MOR), a class A G protein-coupled receptor mediates opioid analgesia and remains a central target for pain therapeutics. While crystal structures of MOR exist, they provide limited insight into the receptor’s dynamic conformational landscape underlying function. Here, we engineered a thermostable water-soluble MOR variant (wsMOR) that retains native-like ligand-binding and activation dynamics. This variant enables high-yield production and detailed solution-phase structural studies that are challenging with membrane-embedded MOR, providing a valuable tool for studying receptor activation and aqueous-phase drug screening. Using a combined computational and experimental approach, we performed long-timescale all-atom molecular dynamics simulations together with neutron scattering and single-molecule FRET, revealing a structurally stable receptor with a diverse ensemble of conformations at different temporal resolutions. In the ligand-free state, wsMOR displayed high conformational flexibility, which decreased upon agonist binding, particularly in transmembrane helix 6, a hallmark of G protein-coupled receptor activation. Positive allosteric modulation and G protein binding further stabilized active-like states. These findings highlight wsMOR’s conformational plasticity across picosecond to millisecond timescales and provide a foundation for structure-guided development of next-generation opioid ligands with improved efficacy and safety.

E, Agyemang [University of Tennessee Knoxville]↗
DOE OSTI2024

CRADA Final Report: CRADA Number NFE-22-09330 with General Fusion

General Fusion is developing a magnetized target fusion (MTF) approach that involves compressing an initial magnetically confined plasma inside a cavity formed in liquid metal. This approach builds from concepts initially developed under the Linus program at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory and combines it with advances from compact toroid experiment (CTX) and sustained spheromak plasma experiment (SSPX) in compact toroid plasmas and coaxial Marshall gun systems. Modeling the tokamak during compression is central to designing a successful MTF device. The plasma is formed by coaxial helicity injection in the General Fusion device. Immediately after formation, the plasma has a diverted tokamak configuration with a single null. As the wall moves inwards, the plasma is repelled from the conducting surface and driven inwards by currents induced by its magnetic field in the liquid metal wall. As the liquid metal closes (or bridges) the opening of the coaxial plasma injector, the magnetic field topology alters to remove the null. Due to this, the plasma moves from a diverted to a wall-limited configuration. The liquid metal liner continues to close in and change shape, reducing in radius by a factor of ten at the peak of plasma compression. A model of the MTF plasma must be able to handle this continually varying geometry, and to be predictive, it must faithfully include the real imperfections arising in the process. In this project, we pursued a Monte Carlo approach to closures for MHD by computing kinetic electron trajectories in an MHD plasma background from simulations of GF devices. This requires enhancing the capabilities of the KORC-T code for running large ensembles of kinetic trajectories by porting it to GPU architectures and enabling workflows for large ensembles on OLCF machines. With these capabilities, it is possible to produce a large library of kinetic calculations of electron orbits evolving in plasma configurations spanning the magnetic configurations and plasma density profiles, including non-axisymmetry, arising in the General Fusion’s existing PI3 spherical tokamak device. Using ensembles will capture particles passing a single point in space in a given magnetic configuration, and the entire dataset will cover a range of global magnetic field geometries. By sampling around many starting points, this dataset will capture the spatial dependence of the plasma parameters. From this large dataset, it is possible to produce a reduced model for the kinetic effects not captured in MHD.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dataset for manuscript "Consequences of the failure of equipartition for the p-V behavior of liquid water and the hydration free energy components of a small protein"

Previously, we showed that in the molecular dynamics simulation of a rigid model of water it is necessary to use an integration time-step dt that is less than or equal to 0.5 fs to ensure equipartition between translational and rotational modes. We extended that study in the NVT ensemble to NpT conditions and to an aqueous protein. We study neat liquid water with the rigid, SPC/E model and the protein BBA (PDB ID: 1FME) solvated in the rigid, TIP3P model. We examined integration time-steps ranging from 0.5 fs to 4.0 fs for various thermostat plus barostat combinations. We find that a small time-step, dt, is necessary to ensure consistent prediction of the simulation volume. Hydrogen mass repartitioning alleviates the problem somewhat, but is ineffective for the typical time-step used with this approach. The compressibility, a measure of volume fluctuations, is seen to be sensitive to dt. Using the mean volume estimated from the NpT simulation, we examined the electrostatic and van der Waals contribution to the hydration free energy of the protein in the NVT ensemble. These contributions are also sensitive to dt. In going from a time-step of 2 fs to a time-step of 0.5 fs, the change in the net electrostatic plus van der Waals contribution to the hydration of BBA is already in excess of the folding free energy reported for this protein. The data-set contains the simulation metadata and log files that support the claims noted above.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Consequences of the failure of equipartition for the p – V behavior of liquid water and the hydration free energy components of a small protein

Earlier we showed that in the molecular dynamics simulation of a rigid model of water it is necessary to use an integration time-step δ t ≤ 0.5 fs to ensure equipartition between translational and rotational modes. Here we extend that study in the NVT ensemble to NpT conditions and to an aqueous protein. We study neat liquid water with the rigid, SPC/E model and the protein BBA (PDB ID: 1FME) solvated in the rigid, TIP3P model. We examine integration time-steps ranging from 0.5 fs to 4.0 fs for various thermostat plus barostat combinations. We find that a small δ t is necessary to ensure consistent prediction of the simulation volume. Hydrogen mass repartitioning alleviates the problem somewhat, but is ineffective for the typical time-step used with this approach. The compressibility, a measure of volume fluctuations, and the dielectric constant, a measure of dipole moment fluctuations, are also seen to be sensitive to δ t . Using the mean volume estimated from the NpT simulation, we examine the electrostatic and van der Waals contribution to the hydration free energy of the protein in the NVT ensemble. These contributions are also sensitive to δ t . In going from δ t = 2 fs to δ t = 0.5 fs, the change in the net electrostatic plus van der Waals contribution to the hydration of BBA is already in excess of the folding free energy reported for this protein.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Examining the Robustness of Weakened Orographic Influence on Precipitation in Downscaled Climate Projections Over the Western US

Assessing local climate change impacts often requires downscaling coarse global climate model (GCM) output to finer resolution. Two main approaches exist: dynamical downscaling using high-resolution regional climate models, and statistical downscaling based on historical relationships between large-scale and local variables. In a recent analysis of five dynamically downscaled simulations over the western United States, Koszuta et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl107298) found that warming weakens orographic influence on winter precipitation, damping increases on windward slopes and amplifying them in rain-shadowed regions. Here we show that this effect is robust across seasons and multiple dynamically downscaled ensembles, and is more pronounced at higher model resolutions. However, it is absent in projections from a widely used statistical model (LOCA2), even when trained on high-resolution future simulations (LOCA2-Hybrid). This highlights a key limitation of many statistical downscaling methods: their preservation of parent GCM trends, which usually fail to capture emergent changes in orographic precipitation patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structure-Based Design of Small-Molecule Inhibitors of Human Interleukin-6

Human Interleukin-6 (hIL-6) is a pro inflammatory cytokine that binds to its receptor, IL-6Rα followed by binding to gp130 and subsequent dimerization to form a hexamer signaling complex. As a critical inflammation mediator, hIL-6 is associated with a diverse range of diseases and monoclonal antibodies in clinical use that either target IL-6Rα or hIL-6 to inhibit signaling. Here, we perform high-throughput structure-based computational screening using ensemble docking for small-molecule antagonists for which the target conformations were taken from 600 ns long molecular dynamics simulations of the apo protein. Prior knowledge of the contact sites from binary complex studies and experimental work was incorporated into the docking studies. The top 20 scoring ligands from the in silico studies after post analysis were subjected to in vitro functional assays. Among these compounds, the ligand with the second-highest calculated binding affinity experimentally showed an ~84% inhibitory effect on IL6-induced STAT3 reporter activity at 10 μM concentration. This finding may pave the way for designing small-molecule inhibitors of hIL-6 of therapeutic significance.

Human Interleukin-6↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scaling whole-chip QAOA for higher-order ising spin glass models on heavy-hex graphs

Abstract We show that the quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) for higher-order, random coefficient, heavy-hex compatible spin glass Ising models has strong parameter concentration across problem sizes from 16 up to 127 qubits for p = 1 up to p = 5, which allows for computationally efficient parameter transfer of QAOA angles. Matrix product state (MPS) simulation is used to compute noise-free QAOA performance. Hardware-compatible short-depth QAOA circuits are executed on ensembles of 100 higher-order Ising models on noisy IBM quantum superconducting processors with 16, 27, and 127 qubits using QAOA angles learned from a single 16-qubit instance using the JuliQAOA tool. We show that the best quantum processors find lower energy solutions up to p = 2 or p = 3, and find mean energies that are about a factor of two off from the noise-free distribution. We show that p = 1 QAOA energy landscapes remain very similar as the problem size increases using NISQ hardware gridsearches with up to a 414 qubit processor.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Real-time capable modeling of ICRF heating on NSTX and WEST via machine learning approaches

Abstract A real-time capable core Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) heating model on NSTX and WEST is developed. The model is based on two nonlinear regression algorithms, the random forest ensemble of decision trees and the multilayer perceptron neural network. The algorithms are trained on TORIC ICRF spectrum solver simulations of the expected flat-top operation scenarios in NSTX and WEST assuming Maxwellian plasmas. The surrogate models are shown to successfully capture the multi-species core ICRF power absorption predicted by the original model for the high harmonic fast wave and the ion cyclotron minority heating schemes while reducing the computational time by six orders of magnitude. Although these models can be expanded, the achieved regression scoring, computational efficiency and increased model robustness suggest these strategies can be implemented into integrated modeling frameworks for real-time control applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗